Previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update FRAX

A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD).

METHODS

We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients.

RESULTS

A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination.

CONCLUSION

A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Proteomic associations with forced expiratory volume - a Mendelian randomisation study

A decline in forced expiratory volume (FEV1) is a hallmark of obstructive respiratory diseases, an important cause of morbidity among the elderly. While some data exist on biomarkers that are related to FEV1, we sought to do a systematic analysis of causal relations of biomarkers with FEV1. Data from the general population-based AGES-Reykjavik study were used. Proteomic measurements were done using 4,782 DNA aptamers (SOMAmers). Data from 1,648 participants with spirometric data were used to assess the association of SOMAmer measurements with FEV1 using linear regression. Bi-directional Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses were done to assess causal relations of observationally associated SOMAmers with FEV1, using genotype and SOMAmer data from 5,368 AGES-Reykjavik participants and genetic associations with FEV1 from a publicly available GWAS (n = 400,102). In observational analyses, 473 SOMAmers were associated with FEV1 after multiple testing adjustment. The most significant were R-Spondin 4, Alkaline Phosphatase, Placental Like 2 and Retinoic Acid Receptor Responder 2. Of the 235 SOMAmers with genetic data, eight were associated with FEV1 in MR analyses. Three were directionally consistent with the observational estimate, Thrombospondin 2 (THBS2), Endoplasmic Reticulum Oxidoreductase 1 Beta and Apolipoprotein M. THBS2 was further supported by a colocalization analysis. Analyses in the reverse direction, testing whether changes in SOMAmer levels were caused by changes in FEV1, were performed but no significant associations were found after multiple testing adjustments. In summary, this large scale proteogenomic analyses of FEV1 reveals protein markers of FEV1, as well as several proteins with potential causality to lung function.

Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors.

METHODS

A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible.

RESULTS

Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed.

CONCLUSIONS

These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266)).

The effect on subsequent fracture risk of age, sex, and prior fracture site by recency of prior fracture

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture varies by age and sex, as by site and recency of sentinel fracture.

INTRODUCTION

The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. Variable recency may obscure other factors that affect subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a sentinel fracture by site, age, and sex where the recency was held constant.

METHODS

The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture incidence was compared to that of the general population determined at fixed times after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm, hip, and minor fractures). Outcome fractures comprised a major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture.

RESULTS

Sentinel osteoporotic fractures were identified in 9504 men and women. Of these, 3616 individuals sustained a major osteoporotic fracture as the first subsequent fracture, of whom 1799 sustained a hip fracture. Hazard ratios for prior fracture were consistently higher in men than in women and decreased progressively with age. Hazard ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus, forearm, or minor osteoporotic fracture.

CONCLUSION

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture varies by age, sex, and site of sentinel fracture when recency is held constant.

Diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis in elderly Icelanders and its association with the metabolic syndrome: the AGES-Reykjavik Study

Objective: To describe the prevalence of diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) in a large population-based study of elderly Icelanders, with particular reference to weight-related factors and the metabolic syndrome.Method: The study population comprised 5321 participants aged 68-96 years (2276 males, mean ± sd age 76 ± 5 , and 3045 females, age 77 ± 6) from the AGES-Reykjavik Study. DISH diagnosis was based on computed tomography (CT) scans, and interpreted strictly by the Resnick criteria and additional suggestions for CT interpretation by Oudkerk et al. Radiology readings were taken by a radiology resident and sample readings by two experienced radiologists.Results: A diagnosis of DISH was made in 13.7% of males and 2.8% of females. There was no association with age, but a strong association was seen with the metabolic syndrome [odds ratio (OR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.69-2.64, p = 3.9 × 10^-11]. Among the components of the metabolic syndrome, the association with DISH was significant for the insulin resistance criterion (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.32-2.01, p < 0.001) and the body mass index (BMI) criterion (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.70-2.74, p < 0.001). Other weight-related variables (midlife BMI, weight, and abdominal circumference) showed similar associations.Conclusions: This study, which to our knowledge is the largest published study on the prevalence of DISH, shows an association with the metabolic syndrome, particularly with the insulin resistance and BMI criteria. This is analogous with previous reports linking DISH with metabolic causes. In this age category, we did not observe any increase in prevalence with age.

Characteristics of incidence hip fracture cases in older adults participating in the longitudinal AGES-Reykjavik study

Poor physical function and body composition my partly predict the risk of falls leading to fracture regardless of bone mineral density.

INTRODUCTION

To examine the relationship between body composition, physical function, and other markers of health with hip fractures in older community-dwelling Icelandic adults.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 4782 older adults from the AGES-Reykjavik study. Baseline recruitment took place between 2002 and 2006, and information on hip fractures occurring through 2012 was extracted from clinical records. Using multivariate regression analyses, baseline measures of bone health, physical function, and body composition were compared between those who later experienced hip fractures and to those who did not. Associations with the risk of fractures were quantified using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Mean age was 76.3 years at baseline. After adjustment for age, regression showed that male hip fracture cases compared with non-cases had (mean (95% confidence interval)) significantly lower thigh muscle cross-sectional area - 5.6 cm² (- 10.2, - 1.1), poorer leg strength - 28 N (- 49, - 7), and decreased physical function as measured by longer timed up and go test 1.1 s (0.5, 1.7). After adjustment for age, female cases had, compared with non-cases, lower body mass index - 1.5 kg/m2 (- 2.1, - 0.9), less lean mass - 1.6 kg (- 2.5, - 0.8), thigh muscle cross-sectional area - 4.4 cm² (- 6.5, - 2.3), and worse leg strength - 16 N (- 25, - 6). These differences largely persisted after further adjustment for bone mineral density (BMD), suggesting that body composition may contribute to the risk of fracture independent of bone health. When examining the association between these same factors and hip fractures using Cox regression, the same conclusions were reached.

CONCLUSIONS

After accounting for age and BMD, older adults who later experienced a hip fracture had poorer baseline measures of physical function and/or body composition, which may at least partly contribute to the risk of falls leading to fracture.

The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture

The increase in fracture risk associated with a recent fragility fracture is more appropriately captured using a 10-year fracture probability than 2- or 5-year probabilities.

INTRODUCTION

The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 2-, 5-, and 10-year probability of fracture.

METHODS

The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) occurring within the previous 2 years and probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios were used to adjust fracture probabilities over a 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizon.

RESULTS

As expected, probabilities decreased with decreasing time horizon. Probability ratios varied according to age and the site of sentinel fracture. Probability ratios to adjust for a prior fracture within the previous 2 years were higher the shorter the time horizon, but the absolute increases in fracture probabilities were much reduced. Thus, fracture probabilities were substantially lower with time horizons less than 10 years.

CONCLUSION

The 10-year probability of fractures is the appropriate metric to capture the impact of the recency of sentinel fractures. The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures, adjustments which can readily inform clinical decision-making.

Correction to: Characteristics of incidence hip fracture cases in older adults participating in the longitudinal AGES-Reykjavik study

The original version of this article, published on 18 august 2020 contained a mistake. An author's name was misspelled.

Lifestyle and 25-hydroxy-vitamin D among community-dwelling old adults with dementia, mild cognitive impairment, or normal cognitive function

BACKGROUND

Several studies have indicated that older adults with cognitive impairment have a poorer lifestyle than their healthy peers including lower 25-hydroxy-vitamin D levels (25OHD).

AIM

To investigate the associations between lifestyle and 25OHD depending on cognitive status among old adults.

METHODS

Community-dwelling old adults (65-96 years) participated in this cross-sectional study based on the Age-Gene/Environment-Susceptibility-Reykjavik-Study. The analytical sample included 5162 subjects who were stratified by cognitive status, i.e., dementia (n = 307), mild cognitive impairment (MCI, n = 492), and normal cognitive status (NCS, n = 4363). Lifestyle variables were assessed and 25OHD was measured. The associations between lifestyle and 25OHD were calculated using linear models correcting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

According to linear regression models, 25OHD was significantly lower in older people with dementia (53.8 ± 19.6 nmol/L) than in NCS participants (57.6 ± 17.7 nmol/L). Cod liver oil (7.1-9.2 nmol/L, P < 0.001) and dietary supplements (4.4-11.5 nmol/L, P < 0.001) were associated with higher 25OHD in all three groups. However, physical activity ≥ 3 h/week (2.82 nmol/L, P < 0.001), BMI < 30 kg/m² (5.2 nmol/L, P < 0.001), non-smoking (4.8 nmol/L, P < 0.001), alcohol consumption (2.7 nmol/L, P < 0.001), and fatty fish consumption ≥ 3x/week (2.6 nmol/L, P < 0.001) were related to higher 25OHD in NCS only, but not in participants with dementia or MCI.

DISCUSSION

Older people living in Iceland with dementia are at higher risk for 25OHD deficiency when compared to healthy individuals. Physical activity reported among participants with dementia, and MCI is low and is not significantly associated with 25OHD.

CONCLUSIONS

Lifestyle factors among NCS participants are associated with 25OHD levels. Importantly, healthy lifestyle should be promoted among individuals with MCI and dementia.

Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the recency of sentinel fractures

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is particularly high immediately following the fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the site of a recent fracture.

INTRODUCTION

The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX.

METHODS

The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were computed on the one hand for sentinel fractures occurring within the previous 2 years and on the other hand, probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.

RESULTS

Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture for recent sentinel fractures were age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women. Probability ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus or forearm fracture. Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture for recent sentinel fractures were also age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women with the exception of forearm fractures.

CONCLUSION

The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.

Quantitative 3D imaging parameters improve prediction of hip osteoarthritis outcome

Osteoarthritis is an increasingly important health problem for which the main treatment remains joint replacement. Therapy developments have been hampered by a lack of biomarkers that can reliably predict disease, while 2D radiographs interpreted by human observers are still the gold standard for clinical trial imaging assessment. We propose a 3D approach using computed tomography—a fast, readily available clinical technique—that can be applied in the assessment of osteoarthritis using a new quantitative 3D analysis technique called joint space mapping (JSM). We demonstrate the application of JSM at the hip in 263 healthy older adults from the AGES-Reykjavík cohort, examining relationships between 3D joint space width, 3D joint shape, and future joint replacement. Using JSM, statistical shape modelling, and statistical parametric mapping, we show an 18% improvement in prediction of joint replacement using 3D metrics combined with radiographic Kellgren & Lawrence grade (AUC 0.86) over the existing 2D FDA-approved gold standard of minimum 2D joint space width (AUC 0.73). We also show that assessment of joint asymmetry can reveal significant differences between individuals destined for joint replacement versus controls at regions of the joint that are not captured by radiographs. This technique is immediately implementable with standard imaging technologies.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of variant-by-diuretic interactions as modulators of lipid traits in persons of European and African ancestry

Hypertension (HTN) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Metabolic abnormalities, including adverse cholesterol and triglycerides (TG) profiles, are frequent comorbid findings with HTN and contribute to cardiovascular disease. Diuretics, which are used to treat HTN and heart failure, have been associated with worsening of fasting lipid concentrations. Genome-wide meta-analyses with 39,710 European-ancestry (EA) individuals and 9,925 African-ancestry (AA) individuals were performed to identify genetic variants that modify the effect of loop or thiazide diuretic use on blood lipid concentrations. Both longitudinal and cross-sectional data were used to compute cohort-specific interaction results, which were then combined through meta-analysis in each ancestry. These ancestry-specific results were further combined through trans-ancestry meta-analysis. Analysis of EA data identified two genome-wide significant (p < 5×10⁻⁸) loci with single nucleotide variant (SNV)-loop diuretic interaction on TG concentrations (including COL11A1). Analysis of AA data identified one genome-wide significant locus adjacent to BMP2 with SNV-loop diuretic interaction on TG concentrations. Trans-ancestry analysis strengthened evidence of association for SNV-loop diuretic interaction at two loci (KIAA1217 and BAALC). There were few significant SNV-thiazide diuretic interaction associations on TG concentrations and for either diuretic on cholesterol concentrations. Several promising loci were identified that may implicate biologic pathways that contribute to adverse metabolic side effects from diuretic therapy.

Biofidelic finite element models for accurately classifying hip fracture in a retrospective clinical study of elderly women from the AGES Reykjavik cohort

Clinical retrospective studies have only reported limited improvements in hip fracture classification accuracy using finite element (FE) models compared to conventional areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements. A possible explanation is that state-of-the-art quasi-static models do not estimate patient-specific loads. A novel FE modeling technique was developed to improve the biofidelity of simulated impact loading from sideways falling. This included surrogate models of the pelvis, lower extremities, and soft tissue that were morphed based on subject anthropometrics. Hip fracture prediction models based on aBMD and FE measurements were compared in a retrospective study of 254 elderly female subjects from the AGES-Reykjavik study. Subject fragility ratio (FR) was defined as the ratio between the ultimate forces of paired biofidelic models, one with linear elastic and the other with non-linear stress-strain relationships in the proximal femur. The expected end-point value (EEV) was defined as the FR weighted by the probability of one sideways fall over five years, based on self-reported fall frequency at baseline. The change in maximum volumetric strain (ΔMVS) on the surface of the femoral neck was calculated between time of ultimate femur force and 90% post-ultimate force in order to assess the extent of tensile tissue damage present in non-linear models. After age-adjusted logistic regression, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) was highest for ΔMVS (0.72), followed by FR (0.71), aBMD (0.70), and EEV (0.67), however the differences between FEA and aBMD based prediction models were not deemed statistically significant. When subjects with no history of falling were excluded from the analysis, thus artificially assuming that falls were known a priori with no uncertainty, a statistically significant difference in AUC was detected between ΔMVS (0.85), and aBMD (0.74). Multivariable linear regression suggested that the variance in maximum elastic femur force was best explained by femoral head radius, pelvis width, and soft tissue thickness (R² = 0.79; RMSE = 0.46 kN; p < 0.005). Weighting the hip fracture prediction models based on self-reported fall frequency did not improve the models' sensitivity, however excluding non-fallers lead to significant differences between aBMD and FE based models. These findings suggest that an accurate assessment of fall probability is necessary for accurately identifying individuals predisposed to hip fracture.

Characteristics of recurrent fractures

The present study, drawn from a sample of the Icelandic population, quantified high immediate risk and utility loss of subsequent fracture after a sentinel fracture (at the hip, spine, distal forearm and humerus) that attenuated with time.

INTRODUCTION

The risk of a subsequent osteoporotic fracture is particularly acute immediately after an index fracture and wanes progressively with time. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk and utility consequences of subsequent fracture after a sentinel fracture (at the hip, spine, distal forearm and humerus) with an emphasis on the time course of recurrent fracture.

METHODS

The Reykjavik Study fracture registration, drawn from a sample of the Icelandic population (n = 18,872), recorded all fractures of the participants from their entry into the study until December 31, 2012. Medical records for the participants were manually examined and verified. First sentinel fractures were identified. Subsequent fractures, deaths, 10-year probability of fracture and cumulative disutility using multipliers derived from the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic fractures Study (ICUROS) were examined as a function of time after fracture, age and sex.

RESULTS

Over 10 years, subsequent fractures were sustained in 28% of 1498 individuals with a sentinel hip fracture. For other sentinel fractures, the proportion ranged from 35 to 38%. After each sentinel fracture, the risk of subsequent fracture was highest in the immediate post fracture interval and decreased markedly with time. Thus, amongst individuals who sustained a recurrent fracture, 31-45% did so within 1 year of the sentinel fracture. Hazard ratios for fracture recurrence (population relative risks) were accordingly highest immediately after the sentinel fracture (2.6-5.3, depending on the site of fracture) and fell progressively over 10 years (1.5-2.2). Population relative risks also decreased progressively with age. The utility loss during the first 10 years after a sentinel fracture varied by age (less with age) and sex (greater in women). In women at the age of 70 years, the mean utility loss due to fractures in the whole cohort was 0.081 whereas this was 12-fold greater in women with a sentinel hip fracture, and was increased 15-fold for spine fracture, 4-fold for forearm fracture and 8-fold for humeral fracture.

CONCLUSION

High fracture risks and utility loss immediately after fracture suggest that treatment given as soon as possible after fracture would avoid a higher number of new fractures compared with treatment given later. This provides the rationale for very early intervention immediately after a sentinel fracture.

Pharmacogenomics study of thiazide diuretics and QT interval in multi-ethnic populations: the cohorts for heart and aging research in genomic epidemiology

Thiazide diuretics, commonly used antihypertensives, may cause QT interval (QT) prolongation, a risk factor for highly fatal and difficult to predict ventricular arrhythmias. We examined whether common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) modified the association between thiazide use and QT or its component parts (QRS interval, JT interval) by performing ancestry-specific, trans-ethnic and cross-phenotype genome-wide analyses of European (66%), African American (15%) and Hispanic (19%) populations (N=78 199), leveraging longitudinal data, incorporating corrected standard errors to account for underestimation of interaction estimate variances and evaluating evidence for pathway enrichment. Although no loci achieved genome-wide significance (P<5 × 10-8), we found suggestive evidence (P<5 × 10-6) for SNPs modifying the thiazide-QT association at 22 loci, including ion transport loci (for example, NELL1, KCNQ3). The biologic plausibility of our suggestive results and simulations demonstrating modest power to detect interaction effects at genome-wide significant levels indicate that larger studies and innovative statistical methods are warranted in future efforts evaluating thiazide-SNP interactions.

Associations between Proportion of Plasma Phospholipid Fatty Acids, Depressive Symptoms and Major Depressive Disorder. Cross-Sectional Analyses from the AGES Reykjavik Study

BACKGROUND

Deficits in n-3 fatty acids may be associated with depression. However, data are scarce from older adults who are at greater risk of poor dietary intake and of developing depression.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate proportion of plasma phospholipid fatty acids with respect to depressive symptoms and major depressive disorder in community dwelling older adults.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analyses of 1571 participants in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study aged 67-93 years. Depressive symptoms were measured using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). Major depressive disorder was assessed according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI).

RESULTS

Depressive symptoms were observed in 195 (12.4%) subjects and there were 27 (1.7%) cases of major depressive disorder. Participants with depressive symptoms were less educated, more likely to be smokers, less physically active and consumed cod liver oil less frequently. Difference in GDS-15 scores by tertiles of n-3 fatty acid proportion was not significant. Proportion of long chain n-3 fatty acids (Eicosapentaenoic- + Docosahexaenoic acid) were inversely related to major depressive disorder, (tertile 2 vs. tertile 1) OR: 0.31 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.86); tertile 3 vs. tertile 1, OR: 0.45 (95% CI: 0.17, 1.21).

CONCLUSION

In our cross sectional analyses low proportions of long chain n-3 fatty acids in plasma phospholipids appear to be associated with increased risk of major depressive disorder. However, the results from this study warrant further investigation in prospective setting with sufficiently long follow-up.

Imminent risk of fracture after fracture

The risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) after a first MOF is increased over the whole duration of follow-up, but the imminent risk is even higher. If the acute increment in risk in the few years following MOF is amenable to therapeutic intervention, then immediate short-term treatments may provide worthwhile clinical dividends in a very cost-effective manner.

INTRODUCTION

A history of fracture is a strong risk factor for future fractures. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the predictive value of a past MOF for future MOF changed with time.

METHODS

The study was based on a population-based cohort of 18,872 men and women born between 1907 and 1935. Fractures were documented over 510,265 person-years. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between the first MOF and the second. All associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline.

RESULTS

Five thousand thirty-nine individuals sustained one or more MOFs, of whom 1919 experienced a second MOF. The risk of a second MOF after a first increased by 4% for each year of age (95% CI 1.02-1.06) and was 41% higher for women than men (95% CI 1.25-1.59). The risk of a second MOF was highest immediately after the first fracture and thereafter decreased with time though remained higher than the population risk throughout follow-up. For example, 1 year after the first MOF, the risk of a second fracture was 2.7 (2.4-3.0) fold higher than the population risk. After 10 years, this risk ratio was 1.4 (1.2-1.6). The effect was more marked with increasing age.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of MOF after a first MOF is increased over the whole follow-up, but the imminent risk is even higher. If the acute increment in risk in the few years following MOF is amenable to therapeutic intervention, then immediate short-term treatments may provide worthwhile clinical dividends in a very cost-effective manner, particularly in the elderly.

Association of bone turnover markers with volumetric bone loss, periosteal apposition, and fracture risk in older men and women: the AGES-Reykjavik longitudinal study

Association between serum bone formation and resorption markers and cortical and trabecular bone loss and the concurrent periosteal apposition in a population-based cohort of 1069 older adults was assessed. BTM levels moderately reflect the cellular events at the endosteal and periosteal surfaces but are not associated with fracture risk.

INTRODUCTION

We assessed whether circulating bone formation and resorption markers (BTM) were individual predictors for trabecular and cortical bone loss, periosteal expansion, and fracture risk in older adults aged 66 to 93 years from the AGES-Reykjavik study.

METHODS

The sample for the quantitative computed tomography (QCT)-derived cortical and trabecular BMD and periosteal expansion analysis consisted of 1069 participants (474 men and 595 women) who had complete baseline (2002 to 2006) and follow-up (2007 to 2011) hip QCT scans and serum baseline BTM. During the median follow-up of 11.7 years (range 5.4-12.5), 54 (11.4 %) men and 182 (30.6 %) women sustained at least one fracture of any type.

RESULTS

Increase in BTM levels was associated with faster cortical and trabecular bone loss at the femoral neck and proximal femur in men and women. Higher BTM levels were positively related with periosteal expansion rate at the femoral neck in men. Markers were not associated with fracture risk.

CONCLUSION

This data corroborates the notion from few previous studies that both envelopes are metabolically active and that BTM levels may moderately reflect the cellular events at the endosteal and periosteal surfaces. However, our results do not support the routine use of BTM to assess fracture risk in older men and women. In light of these findings, further studies are justified to examine whether systemic markers of bone turnover might prove useful in monitoring skeletal remodeling events and the effects of current osteoporosis drugs at the periosteum.

Are bone turnover markers associated with volumetric bone density, size, and strength in older men and women? The AGES-Reykjavik study

Association between serum bone formation and resorption markers and bone mineral, structural, and strength variables derived from quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in a population-based cohort of 1745 older adults was assessed. The association was weak for lumbar spine and femoral neck areal and volumetric bone mineral density.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between levels of bone turnover markers (BTMs; osteocalcin (OC), C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX), and procollagen type 1N propeptide (P1NP)) and quantitative computed tomography (QCT)-derived bone density, geometry, and strength indices in the lumbar spine and femoral neck (FN).

METHODS

A total of 1745 older individuals (773 men and 972 women, aged 66-92 years) from the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik cohort were studied. QCT was performed in the lumbar spine and hip to estimate volumetric trabecular, cortical, and integral bone mineral density (BMD), areal BMD, bone geometry, and bone strength indices. Association between BTMs and QCT variables were explored using multivariable linear regression.

RESULTS

Major findings showed that all BMD measures, FN cortical index, and compressive strength had a low negative correlation with the BTM levels in both men and women. Correlations between BTMs and bone size parameters were minimal or not significant. No associations were found between BTMs and vertebral cross-sectional area in women. BTMs alone accounted for only a relatively small percentage of the bone parameter variance (1-10 %).

CONCLUSION

Serum CTX, OC, and P1NP were weakly correlated with lumbar spine and FN areal and volumetric BMD and strength measures. Most of the bone size indices were not associated with BTMs; thus, the selected bone remodeling markers do not reflect periosteal bone formation. These results confirmed the limited ability of the most sensitive established BTMs to predict bone structural integrity in older adults.

Co-Presence of Multimorbidity and Disability with Frailty: An Examination of Heterogeneity in the Frail Older Population

BACKGROUND

Frailty is often associated with multimorbidity and disability.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated heterogeneity in the frail older population by characterizing five subpopulations according to quantitative biological markers, multimorbidity and disability, and examined their association with mortality and nursing home admission.

DESIGN

Observational study.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants (n=4,414) were from the population-based Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study.

MEASUREMENTS

Frailty was defined by ≥ 3 of five characteristics: weight loss, weakness, reduced energy levels, slowness and physical inactivity. Multimorbidity was assessed using a simple disease count, based on 13 prevalent conditions. Disability was assessed by five activities of daily living; participants who had difficulty with one or more tasks were considered disabled. Differences among frail subpopulations were based on the co-presence of multimorbidity and disability. Differences among the following subpopulations were examined: 1) Non-frail (reference group); 2) Frail only; 3) Frail with disability; 4) Frailty with multimorbidity; 5) Frail with disability and multimorbidity.

RESULTS

Frailty was present in 10.7% (n=473). Frailty was associated with increased risk for mortality (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.15-1.69) and nursing home admission (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.16-1.93); risks differed by subpopulations. Compared to the non-frail, the frail only group had poorer cognition and increased inflammation levels but did not have increased risk for mortality (OR 1.40; 95% CI 0.84-2.33) or nursing home admission (OR 1.01; 95% CI 0.46-2.21). Compared to the non-frail, the other frail subpopulations had significantly poorer cognition, increased inflammation levels, more white matter lesions, higher levels of calcium, glucose and red cell distribution width and increased risk for mortality and nursing home admission.

CONCLUSIONS

The adverse health risks associated with frailty in the general older adult population may primarily be driven by increased disease burden and disability.

Left-right differences in the proximal femur's strength of post-menopausal women: a multicentric finite element study

The strength of both femurs was estimated in 198 post-menopausal women through subject-specific finite element models. Important random differences between contralateral femurs were found in a significant number of subjects, pointing to the usefulness of further studies to understand if strength-based classification of patients at risk of fracture can be affected by laterality issues.

INTRODUCTION

Significant, although small, differences exist in mineral density and anatomy of contralateral proximal femurs. These differences, and their combined effect, may result in a side difference in femurs' strength. However, this has never been tested on a large sample of a homogenous population.

METHODS

The strength of both femurs was estimated in 198 post-menopausal women through CT-derived finite element models, built using a validated procedure, in sideways fall conditions. The impact of the resulting asymmetry on the classification of subjects at risk of fracture was analysed.

RESULTS

The small difference observed between sides (the right femur on average 4 % stronger than the left) was statistically significant but mechanically negligible. In contrast, higher random differences (absolute difference between sides with respect to mean value) were found: on average close to 15 % (compared to 9.2 % for areal bone mineral density (aBMD) alone), with high scatter among the subjects. When using a threshold-based classification, the right and left femurs were discordant up to over 20 % of cases (K always lower than 0.60) but the left femur was concordant (mean K = 0.84) with the minimum strength between right and left.

CONCLUSION

Considering both femurs may be important when trying to classify subjects at risk of failure with strength estimates. Future studies including fracture assessment would be necessary to quantify the real impact.

Abstract P3-09-02: Early life residence, fish consumption and risk of breast cancer

Introduction: Few studies exist on the effect of diet during different periods of life, on breast cancer risk later in life. Great differences existed in food consumption between the capital and rural areas in Iceland in the middle of the 20th century, with very high fish consumption in coastal areas.

Objectives: Our aim was to explore the effect of diet and residence during early life and midlife on breast cancer risk later in life.

Methods and data: We used data from the Reykjavik Study, a population-based Icelandic cohort of 10049 women born between 1907 and 1935, and examined the association of residence in early life, used as a proxy for dietary habits, and risk of breast cancer. To further explore this association, we also used food frequency data at different periods of life, including adolescence, from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort, a subgroup of the Reykjavik Study, established in 2002. Participants provided information on residence in early life. By linkage with the Icelandic Cancer Registry, information on breast cancer diagnoses was available throughout 2013. Adjustments were made for a series of potential confounders, including residence for dietary analysis.

Results: During a mean follow-up of 27.3 years, 744 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. We found a significant inverse association for breast cancer diagnosis among women who lived though the puberty period (20 years or more) in coastal villages compared with women residing in the capital area (HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.94). In the subgroup analysis, we found that women with high fish consumption in midlife had lower risk of breast cancer in older age, compared with women with lower consumption, (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.38, 0,94). However, we did not observe a statistically significant association between high fish intake in adolescence and breast cancer (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.62 - 1.13).

Conclusions: Our results suggest that high fish consumption in early- to midlife may be associated with reduced risk of breast cancer.

Citation Format: Haraldsdottir A, Torfadottir JE, Valdimarsdottir UA, Aspelund T, Tryggvadottir L, Launer LJ, Harris TB, Gudnason V, Steingrimsdottir L. Early life residence, fish consumption and risk of breast cancer. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-09-02.

GWAS for executive function and processing speed suggests involvement of the CADM2 gene

To identify common variants contributing to normal variation in two specific domains of cognitive functioning, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of executive functioning and information processing speed in non-demented older adults from the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) consortium. Neuropsychological testing was available for 5429-32,070 subjects of European ancestry aged 45 years or older, free of dementia and clinical stroke at the time of cognitive testing from 20 cohorts in the discovery phase. We analyzed performance on the Trail Making Test parts A and B, the Letter Digit Substitution Test (LDST), the Digit Symbol Substitution Task (DSST), semantic and phonemic fluency tests, and the Stroop Color and Word Test. Replication was sought in 1311-21860 subjects from 20 independent cohorts. A significant association was observed in the discovery cohorts for the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs17518584 (discovery P-value=3.12 × 10(-8)) and in the joint discovery and replication meta-analysis (P-value=3.28 × 10(-9) after adjustment for age, gender and education) in an intron of the gene cell adhesion molecule 2 (CADM2) for performance on the LDST/DSST. Rs17518584 is located about 170 kb upstream of the transcription start site of the major transcript for the CADM2 gene, but is within an intron of a variant transcript that includes an alternative first exon. The variant is associated with expression of CADM2 in the cingulate cortex (P-value=4 × 10(-4)). The protein encoded by CADM2 is involved in glutamate signaling (P-value=7.22 × 10(-15)), gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transport (P-value=1.36 × 10(-11)) and neuron cell-cell adhesion (P-value=1.48 × 10(-13)). Our findings suggest that genetic variation in the CADM2 gene is associated with individual differences in information processing speed.

Polyunsaturated fatty acids in relation to incident mobility disability and decline in gait speed; the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Low intake of long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are associated with physical disability; however, prospective studies of circulating PUFAs are scarce. We examined associations between plasma phospholipid n-3 and n-6 PUFAs with risk of incident mobility disability and gait speed decline.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Data are from a subgroup of the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study, a population-based study of risk factors for disease and disability in old age. In this subgroup (n = 556, mean age 75.1 ± 5.0 years, 47.5% men), plasma phospholipid PUFAs were assessed at baseline using gas chromatography. Mobility disability and usual gait speed were assessed at baseline and after 5.2 ± 0.2 years. Mobility disability was defined as the following: having much difficulty, or being unable to walk 500 m or climb up 10 steps; decline in gait speed was defined as change ⩾ 0.10 m/s. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine associations between sex-specific s.d. increments in PUFAs with risk of incident mobility disability and gait speed decline. Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) adjusted for demographics, follow-up time, risk factors and serum vitamin D were reported.

RESULTS

In women, but not men, every s.d. increment increase of total n-3 PUFAs and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) was associated with lower mobility disability risk, odds ratio 0.48 (0.25; 0.93) and odds ratio 0.45 (0.24; 0.83), respectively. There was no association between n-6 PUFAs and the risk of incident mobility disability or gait speed decline.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher concentrations of n-3 PUFAs and, particularly, DHA may protect women from impaired mobility but does not appear to have such an effect in men.

Is the adiposity-associated FTO gene variant related to all-cause mortality independent of adiposity? Meta-analysis of data from 169,551 Caucasian adults

Previously, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene showed a much stronger association with all-cause mortality than expected from its association with body mass index (BMI), body fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC). This finding implies that the SNP has strong pleiotropic effects on adiposity and adiposity-independent pathological pathways that leads to increased mortality. To investigate this further, we conducted a meta-analysis of similar data from 34 longitudinal studies including 169,551 adult Caucasians among whom 27,100 died during follow-up. Linear regression showed that the minor allele of the FTO SNP was associated with greater BMI (n = 169,551; 0.32 kg m(-2) ; 95% CI 0.28-0.32, P < 1 × 10(-32) ), WC (n = 152,631; 0.76 cm; 0.68-0.84, P < 1 × 10(-32) ) and FMI (n = 48,192; 0.17 kg m(-2) ; 0.13-0.22, P = 1.0 × 10(-13) ). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for mortality showed that the hazards ratio (HR) for the minor allele of the FTO SNPs was 1.02 (1.00-1.04, P = 0.097), but the apparent excess risk was eliminated after adjustment for BMI and WC (HR: 1.00; 0.98-1.03, P = 0.662) and for FMI (HR: 1.00; 0.96-1.04, P = 0.932). In conclusion, this study does not support that the FTO SNP is associated with all-cause mortality independently of the adiposity phenotypes.

Genetic contributions to variation in general cognitive function: a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in the CHARGE consortium (N=53949)

General cognitive function is substantially heritable across the human life course from adolescence to old age. We investigated the genetic contribution to variation in this important, health- and well-being-related trait in middle-aged and older adults. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of 31 cohorts (N=53,949) in which the participants had undertaken multiple, diverse cognitive tests. A general cognitive function phenotype was tested for, and created in each cohort by principal component analysis. We report 13 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations in three genomic regions, 6q16.1, 14q12 and 19q13.32 (best SNP and closest gene, respectively: rs10457441, P=3.93 × 10(-9), MIR2113; rs17522122, P=2.55 × 10(-8), AKAP6; rs10119, P=5.67 × 10(-9), APOE/TOMM40). We report one gene-based significant association with the HMGN1 gene located on chromosome 21 (P=1 × 10(-6)). These genes have previously been associated with neuropsychiatric phenotypes. Meta-analysis results are consistent with a polygenic model of inheritance. To estimate SNP-based heritability, the genome-wide complex trait analysis procedure was applied to two large cohorts, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (N=6617) and the Health and Retirement Study (N=5976). The proportion of phenotypic variation accounted for by all genotyped common SNPs was 29% (s.e.=5%) and 28% (s.e.=7%), respectively. Using polygenic prediction analysis, ~1.2% of the variance in general cognitive function was predicted in the Generation Scotland cohort (N=5487; P=1.5 × 10(-17)). In hypothesis-driven tests, there was significant association between general cognitive function and four genes previously associated with Alzheimer's disease: TOMM40, APOE, ABCG1 and MEF2C.

The incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture in Iceland and implications for FRAX

SUMMARY

Based on an extensive cohort study over 25 years, the present study supports the assumption that major osteoporotic fractures can be reasonably predicted from hip fracture rates.

INTRODUCTION

The construct for FRAX models depends on algorithms to adjust for double counting of fracture outcomes in some models and in others, to estimate the incidence of a major fracture from hip fracture rates. The aim of the present study was to test the validity of these algorithms in a large prospective cohort.

METHODS

The incidence of hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and humerus fracture was determined in the prospective and ongoing population-based Reykjavik Study with follow up of 257,001 person-years. The incidence of a first major fracture was compared with the correction factors used in FRAX to adjust the incidence of several fracture outcomes for double counting. In addition, the incidence of a major osteoporotic fracture estimated from the Icelandic hip fracture rates was compared with the Malmo ratios used in FRAX.

RESULTS

The adjustments necessary to account for multiple fracture outcomes were similar to those previously derived from Sweden. Additionally, incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture was similar to that derived for FRAX models.

CONCLUSION

The findings of the present study support the algorithms used in FRAX to estimate the incidence of a first major fracture and the predictive value of hip fracture for other major fractures.

Faster increase in body mass index between ages 8 and 13 is associated with risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Excess childhood weight is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adulthood. Whether this is mediated through adult body mass index (BMI) and associated risk factors such as metabolic derangements remains unclear. The aim was to examine whether childhood BMI velocity (Δkg m(-2) per year) was associated with adult CVD mortality and to examine how adult BMI and cardiometabolic risk factors contribute to the association.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Subjects were 1924 Icelanders born between 1921 and 1935 and living in Reykjavik when recruited into a longitudinal study from 1967 to 1991. From ages 8-13 years, BMI velocity was calculated to quantify the association between childhood growth and adult CVD mortality. Deaths from recruitment to 31 December 2009 were extracted from the national register. There were 202 CVD deaths among men and 90 CVD deaths among women (mean follow-up: 25.9 years). Faster BMI velocity from ages 8-13 years was associated with CVD mortality when comparing those in the highest versus lowest tertile with corresponding hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.49 (1.03, 2.15) among men and 2.32 (1.32, 4.08) among women after adjustment for mid-life BMI and CVD risk factors. Faster childhood BMI velocity was associated with elevated CVD risk factors among men at mid-life but these associations were less pronounced among women.

CONCLUSION

Faster increase in BMI from ages 8-13 years was associated with an increased CVD mortality risk. Children with early growth spurts coupled with excess weight gain during this transition period from childhood into adolescence should be closely monitored to ensure better health in adulthood.

Milk consumption throughout life and bone mineral content and density in elderly men and women

Association between bone mineral density and bone mineral content in old age and milk consumption in adolescence, midlife, and old age was assessed. The association was strongest for milk consumption in midlife: those drinking milk daily or more often had higher bone mineral density and content in old age than those drinking milk seldom or never.

INTRODUCTION

The role of lifelong milk consumption for bone mineral density (BMD) and bone mineral content (BMC) in old age is not clear. Here we assess the association between hip BMD and BMC in old age and milk consumption in adolescence, midlife, and current old age.

METHODS

Participants of the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study, aged 66-96 years (N = 4,797), reported retrospective milk intake during adolescence and midlife as well as in current old age, using a validated food frequency questionnaire. BMC of femoral neck and trochanteric area was measured by volumetric quantitative computed tomography and BMD obtained. Association was assessed using linear regression models. Differences in BMC, bone volume, and BMD in relation to milk intake were portrayed as gender-specific Z-scores.

RESULTS

Men consuming milk ≥ once/day during midlife had 0.21 higher Z-scores for BMD and 0.18 for BMC in femoral neck (95 % confidence interval 0.05-0.39 and 0.01-0.35, respectively) compared with < once/week. Results were comparable for trochanter. For women the results were similar, with slightly lower differences according to midlife milk consumption. For current and adolescent milk consumption, differences in Z-scores were smaller and only reached statistical significance in the case of BMD for current consumption in men, while this association was less pronounced for BMC.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that regular milk consumption throughout life, from adolescence to old age, is associated with higher BMC and BMD in old age, with no differences seen in bone volume. The strongest associations are seen for midlife milk consumption in both genders.

Drug-gene interactions and the search for missing heritability: a cross-sectional pharmacogenomics study of the QT interval

Variability in response to drug use is common and heritable, suggesting that genome-wide pharmacogenomics studies may help explain the 'missing heritability' of complex traits. Here, we describe four independent analyses in 33 781 participants of European ancestry from 10 cohorts that were designed to identify genetic variants modifying the effects of drugs on QT interval duration (QT). Each analysis cross-sectionally examined four therapeutic classes: thiazide diuretics (prevalence of use=13.0%), tri/tetracyclic antidepressants (2.6%), sulfonylurea hypoglycemic agents (2.9%) and QT-prolonging drugs as classified by the University of Arizona Center for Education and Research on Therapeutics (4.4%). Drug-gene interactions were estimated using covariable-adjusted linear regression and results were combined with fixed-effects meta-analysis. Although drug-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions were biologically plausible and variables were well-measured, findings from the four cross-sectional meta-analyses were null (Pinteraction>5.0 × 10(-8)). Simulations suggested that additional efforts, including longitudinal modeling to increase statistical power, are likely needed to identify potentially important pharmacogenomic effects.

Epidemiology of fractures in Iceland and secular trends in major osteoporotic fractures 1989-2008

The incidence of the most common fracture types in Iceland is reported based on individual data from the Reykjavik Study 1967-2008. Time trend is reported for the major osteoporotic fractures (MOS) 1989-2008.

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to assess the incidence of all fractures in Iceland, with emphasis on the rate of hip fractures, and compare the incidence with other populations as well as examine the secular changes.

METHODS

Individuals from the prospective population-based cohort Reykjavik Study were examined between 1967 and 2008 (follow-up 26.5 years), which consisted of 9,116 men and 9,756 women born in 1907-1935, with age range 31-81 years. First fracture incidence was estimated using life table methods with age as the timescale.

RESULTS

Fracture rate increased proportionally with age between the sexes for vertebral and proximal humerus but disproportionally for hip and distal forearm fractures. The ratio of first fracture incidence between the sexes varied considerably by site: 2.65 for hip fractures and the highest for distal forearm fractures at 4.83. By the age of 75, 36.7% of women and 21% of men had sustained a fracture, taking into account competing risk of death. The incidence of hip fractures was similar to results previously published from USA, Sweden, Norway, and Scotland. The incidence of MOS fractures in both sexes decreased over the last decade, except hip fractures in men, which remained unchanged, as reflected in the women/men ratio for the hip, which changed from 2.6 to 1.7.

CONCLUSION

This study adds information to scarce knowledge on the relative fracture incidence of different fractures. The incidence of MOS fractures increased in the latter part of the last century in both sexes and declined during the last decade, less dramatically for men. This information is important for planning health resources.

Effect of finite element model loading condition on fracture risk assessment in men and women: the AGES-Reykjavik study

Proximal femoral (hip) strength computed by subject-specific CT scan-based finite element (FE) models has been explored as an improved measure for identifying subjects at risk of hip fracture. However, to our knowledge, no published study has reported the effect of loading condition on the association between incident hip fracture and hip strength. In the present study, we performed a nested age- and sex-matched case-control study in the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES) Reykjavik cohort. Baseline (pre-fracture) quantitative CT (QCT) scans of 5500 older male and female subjects were obtained. During 4-7years follow-up, 51 men and 77 women sustained hip fractures. Ninety-seven men and 152 women were randomly selected as controls from a pool of age- and sex-matched subjects. From the QCT data, FE models employing nonlinear material properties computed FE-strength of the left hip of each subject in loading from a fall onto the posterolateral (FPL), posterior (FP) and lateral (FL) aspects of the greater trochanter (patent pending). For comparison, FE strength in stance loading (FStance) and total femur areal bone mineral density (aBMD) were also computed. For all loading conditions, the reductions in strength associated with fracture in men were more than twice those in women (p≤0.01). For fall loading specifically, posterolateral loading in men and posterior loading in women were most strongly associated with incident hip fracture. After adjusting for aBMD, the association between FP and fracture in women fell short of statistical significance (p=0.08), indicating that FE strength provides little advantage over aBMD for identifying female hip fracture subjects. However, in men, after controlling for aBMD, FPL was 424N (11%) less in subjects with fractures than in controls (p=0.003). Thus, in men, FE models of posterolateral loading include information about incident hip fracture beyond that in aBMD.