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Bertuol-Garcia D, Ladouceur E, Brudvig LA, Laughlin DC, Munson SM, Curran MF, Davies KW, Svejcar LN, Shackelford N. Testing the hierarchy of predictability in grassland restoration across a gradient of environmental severity. Ecol Appl 2023; 33:e2922. [PMID: 37776043 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2922] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Revised: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/01/2023]
Abstract
Ecological restoration is critical for recovering degraded ecosystems but is challenged by variable success and low predictability. Understanding which outcomes are more predictable and less variable following restoration can improve restoration effectiveness. Recent theory asserts that the predictability of outcomes would follow an order from most to least predictable from coarse to fine community properties (physical structure > taxonomic diversity > functional composition > taxonomic composition) and that predictability would increase with more severe environmental conditions constraining species establishment. We tested this "hierarchy of predictability" hypothesis by synthesizing outcomes along an aridity gradient with 11 grassland restoration projects across the United States. We used 1829 vegetation monitoring plots from 227 restoration treatments, spread across 52 sites. We fit generalized linear mixed-effects models to predict six indicators of restoration outcomes as a function of restoration characteristics (i.e., seed mixes, disturbance, management actions, time since restoration) and used variance explained by models and model residuals as proxies for restoration predictability. We did not find consistent support for our hypotheses. Physical structure was among the most predictable outcomes when the response variable was relative abundance of grasses, but unpredictable for total canopy cover. Similarly, one dimension of taxonomic composition related to species identities was unpredictable, but another dimension of taxonomic composition indicating whether exotic or native species dominated the community was highly predictable. Taxonomic diversity (i.e., species richness) and functional composition (i.e., mean trait values) were intermittently predictable. Predictability also did not increase consistently with aridity. The dimension of taxonomic composition related to the identity of species in restored communities was more predictable (i.e., smaller residuals) in more arid sites, but functional composition was less predictable (i.e., larger residuals), and other outcomes showed no significant trend. Restoration outcomes were most predictable when they related to variation in dominant species, while those responding to rare species were harder to predict, indicating a potential role of scale in restoration predictability. Overall, our results highlight additional factors that might influence restoration predictability and add support to the importance of continuous monitoring and active management beyond one-time seed addition for successful grassland restoration in the United States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diana Bertuol-Garcia
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Emma Ladouceur
- Institute of Computer Science, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Leipzig-Halle-Jena, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Physiological Diversity, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Lars A Brudvig
- Department of Plant Biology and Program in Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | | | - Seth M Munson
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Kirk W Davies
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Burns, Oregon, USA
| | | | - Nancy Shackelford
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
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Svejcar LN, Davies KW, Ritchie AL. Ecological restoration in the age of apocalypse. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:4706-4710. [PMID: 37312638 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Billions of dollars are spent annually on ecological restoration efforts around the world and yet successful attainment of restoration targets still falls short in many regions. Globally, ecosystem restoration is becoming increasingly challenged with changes in climate. Years with extreme climatic events that limit plant establishment, such as severe drought, heatwaves, and floods are projected to increase in frequency. A critical evaluation of current ecological restoration practices and changes to those practices are needed to attain global restoration targets. For plant restoration, many efforts globally focus on planting in a single year following disturbance. The odds of restoration efforts being conducted in a year that is inconducive to plant establishment may be calculated using climatic risk data. We propose a risk-mitigation approach to restoration wherein plantings are conducted across multiple years for projects in a bet-hedging strategy and evaluated through an adaptive management approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren N Svejcar
- United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center, Burns, Oregon, USA
| | - Kirk W Davies
- United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center, Burns, Oregon, USA
| | - Alison L Ritchie
- School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia
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Thomas T, Davies K, Mata-Gonzalez R, Svejcar LN, Clenet D. Effects of a decade of grazing exclusion on three Wyoming big sagebrush community types. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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Svejcar LN, Kerby JD, Svejcar TJ, Mackey B, Boyd CS, Baughman OW, Madsen MD, Davies KW. Plant recruitment in drylands varies by site, year and seeding technique. Restor Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13750] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lauren N. Svejcar
- Rangeland scientists, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Services (ARS), Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center Burns OR 97720 USA
| | - Jay D. Kerby
- Southeast Oregon Project Manager, The Nature Conservancy Burns OR 97720 USA
- Current affiliation: Unaffiliated, 4 South Street, Pukerau, 9772 New Zealand
| | - Tony J. Svejcar
- Rangeland scientists, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Services (ARS), Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center Burns OR 97720 USA
| | - Bruce Mackey
- Statistician, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Services (ARS), Pacific West Area office Albany CA 94710 USA
| | - Chad S. Boyd
- Rangeland scientists, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Services (ARS), Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center Burns OR 97720 USA
| | | | - Matthew D. Madsen
- Brigham Young University, Plant and Wildlife Sciences, 5048 LSB Provo UT 84602 USA
| | - Kirk W. Davies
- Rangeland scientists, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Services (ARS), Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center Burns OR 97720 USA
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Svejcar LN, Brown VS, Ritchie AL, Davies KW, Svejcar TJ. A new perspective and approach to ecosystem restoration: a seed enhancement technology guide and case study. Restor Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lauren N. Svejcar
- USDA‐Agricultural Research Service Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center 67826‐A Hwy 205 Burns OR 97720 U.S.A
| | - Vanessa S. Brown
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Highway Crawley WA 6009 Australia
| | - Alison L. Ritchie
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Highway Crawley WA 6009 Australia
| | - Kirk W. Davies
- USDA‐Agricultural Research Service Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center 67826‐A Hwy 205 Burns OR 97720 U.S.A
| | - Tony J. Svejcar
- Oregon State University, Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center 67826‐A Hwy 205 Burns OR 97720 U.S.A
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Svejcar LN, Bestelmeyer BT, Duniway MC, James DK. Scale-Dependent Feedbacks Between Patch Size and Plant Reproduction in Desert Grassland. Ecosystems 2014. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-014-9818-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
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