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Di Credico G, Edefonti V, Polesel J, Pauli F, Torelli N, Serraino D, Negri E, Luce D, Stucker I, Matsuo K, Brennan P, Vilensky M, Fernandez L, Curado MP, Menezes A, Daudt AW, Koifman R, Wunsch-Filho V, Holcatova I, Ahrens W, Lagiou P, Simonato L, Richiardi L, Healy C, Kjaerheim K, Conway DI, Macfarlane TV, Thomson P, Agudo A, Znaor A, Boaventura Rios LF, Toporcov TN, Franceschi S, Herrero R, Muscat J, Olshan AF, Zevallos JP, La Vecchia C, Winn DM, Sturgis EM, Li G, Fabianova E, Lissowska J, Mates D, Rudnai P, Shangina O, Swiatkowska B, Moysich K, Zhang ZF, Morgenstern H, Levi F, Smith E, Lazarus P, Bosetti C, Garavello W, Kelsey K, McClean M, Ramroth H, Chen C, Schwartz SM, Vaughan TL, Zheng T, Menvielle G, Boccia S, Cadoni G, Hayes RB, Purdue M, Gillison M, Schantz S, Yu GP, Brenner H, D'Souza G, Gross ND, Chuang SC, Boffetta P, Hashibe M, Lee YCA, Dal Maso L. Joint effects of intensity and duration of cigarette smoking on the risk of head and neck cancer: A bivariate spline model approach. Oral Oncol 2019; 94:47-57. [PMID: 31178212 PMCID: PMC7117823 DOI: 10.1016/j.oraloncology.2019.05.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2018] [Revised: 03/27/2019] [Accepted: 05/05/2019] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed at re-evaluating the strength and shape of the dose-response relationship between the combined (or joint) effect of intensity and duration of cigarette smoking and the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). We explored this issue considering bivariate spline models, where smoking intensity and duration were treated as interacting continuous exposures. MATERIALS AND METHODS We pooled individual-level data from 33 case-control studies (18,260 HNC cases and 29,844 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. In bivariate regression spline models, exposures to cigarette smoking intensity and duration (compared with never smokers) were modeled as a linear piecewise function within a logistic regression also including potential confounders. We jointly estimated the optimal knot locations and regression parameters within the Bayesian framework. RESULTS For oral-cavity/pharyngeal (OCP) cancers, an odds ratio (OR) >5 was reached after 30 years in current smokers of ∼20 or more cigarettes/day. Patterns of OCP cancer risk in current smokers differed across strata of alcohol intensity. For laryngeal cancer, ORs >20 were found for current smokers of ≥20 cigarettes/day for ≥30 years. In former smokers who quit ≥10 years ago, the ORs were approximately halved for OCP cancers, and ∼1/3 for laryngeal cancer, as compared to the same levels of intensity and duration in current smokers. CONCLUSION Referring to bivariate spline models, this study better quantified the joint effect of intensity and duration of cigarette smoking on HNC risk, further stressing the need of smoking cessation policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gioia Di Credico
- Department of Statistics, Padua University, Padua, Italy; Department of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
| | - Valeria Edefonti
- Branch of Medical Statistics, Biometry and Epidemiology "G. A. Maccacaro", Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy.
| | - Jerry Polesel
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico di Aviano (CRO), IRCCS, Aviano, Italy
| | - Francesco Pauli
- Department of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
| | - Nicola Torelli
- Department of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
| | - Diego Serraino
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico di Aviano (CRO), IRCCS, Aviano, Italy
| | - Eva Negri
- Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | - Daniele Luce
- Université de Rennes, INSERM, EHESP, Irset (Institut de Recherche en Santé, Environnement et Travail), UMR_S 1085, Pointe-à-Pitre, France
| | - Isabelle Stucker
- Inserm, Center for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health (CESP), Cancer and Environment team, Université Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, Villejuif, France
| | | | - Paul Brennan
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Marta Vilensky
- Institute of Oncology Angel H. Roffo, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | | | | | - Ana Menezes
- Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | | | - Rosalina Koifman
- Escola Nacional de Saude Publica, Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Ivana Holcatova
- Institute of Hygiene & Epidemiology, 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Wolfgang Ahrens
- Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology, BIPS, Bremen, Germany; University of Bremen, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Bremen, Germany
| | - Pagona Lagiou
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Lorenzo Simonato
- Department of Cardiovascular and Thoracic Sciences and Public Health, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | | | - Claire Healy
- Trinity College School of Dental Science, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - David I Conway
- School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Nursing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Tatiana V Macfarlane
- School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK and School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | | | | | - Ariana Znaor
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | | | - Silvia Franceschi
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico di Aviano (CRO), IRCCS, Aviano, Italy
| | | | | | - Andrew F Olshan
- University of North Carolina School of Public Health, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Jose P Zevallos
- Division of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology in the Department of Otolaryngology/Head and Neck Surgery at Washington University School of Medicine, USA
| | - Carlo La Vecchia
- Branch of Medical Statistics, Biometry and Epidemiology "G. A. Maccacaro", Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | - Deborah M Winn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | - Guojun Li
- UT - M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | - Jolanda Lissowska
- The M. Skasodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Dept. of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Dana Mates
- National Institute of Public Health, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Peter Rudnai
- National Institute of Environmental Health to National Public Health Institute, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | | | | | | | - Hal Morgenstern
- Departments of Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health and Department of Urology, Medical School, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Fabio Levi
- Institut Universitaire de Medecine Sociale et Preventive (IUMSP), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Elaine Smith
- College of Public Health, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
| | - Philip Lazarus
- Washington State University College of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Spokane, WA, USA
| | - Cristina Bosetti
- Department of Oncology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Werner Garavello
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, School of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milano, Bicocca, Monza, Italy
| | | | | | | | - Chu Chen
- Program in Epidemiology, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Stephen M Schwartz
- Program in Epidemiology, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Thomas L Vaughan
- Program in Epidemiology, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Tongzhang Zheng
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Gwenn Menvielle
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique IPLESP, Department of Social Epidemiology, F75012 Paris, France
| | - Stefania Boccia
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Public Health Area, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli IRCCS, Roma, Italy; Sezione di Igiene, Istituto di Sanità Pubblica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy
| | - Gabriella Cadoni
- Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Invecchiamento, Neurologiche, Ortopediche e della Testa-Collo, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli IRCCS, Roma, Italy; Istituto di Clinica Otorinolaringoiatrica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy
| | - Richard B Hayes
- Division of Epidemiology, New York University School Of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Mark Purdue
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Maura Gillison
- "Thoracic/Head and Neck Medical Oncology", The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, TX, USA
| | | | - Guo-Pei Yu
- Medical Informatics Center, Peking University, China
| | - Hermann Brenner
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany; Division of Preventive Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT), Heidelberg, Germany; German Cancer Consortium (DKTK), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | - Neil D Gross
- Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Division of Surgery, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Shu-Chun Chuang
- Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan
| | - Paolo Boffetta
- The Tisch Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Mia Hashibe
- Division of Public Health, Department of Family & Preventive Medicine and Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Yuan-Chin Amy Lee
- Division of Public Health, Department of Family & Preventive Medicine, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Luigino Dal Maso
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico di Aviano (CRO), IRCCS, Aviano, Italy
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