The role of migration networks in the development of Botswana's generalized HIV epidemic

The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where epidemics are generalized. For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, the role of population-level mobility in the development of generalized HIV epidemics has not been studied. Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana, which has one of the most severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; HIV prevalence was 21% in 2021. The country reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during the development of Botswana's epidemic, the population was extremely mobile and the country was highly connected by substantial migratory flows. We test this mobility hypothesis by conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981-2011) of micro-census data from Botswana. Our results support our hypothesis. We found complex migration networks with very high rates of rural-to-urban, and urban-to-rural, migration: 10% of the population moved annually. Mining towns (where AIDS cases were first reported, and risk behavior was high) were important in-flow and out-flow migration hubs, suggesting that they functioned as 'core groups' for HIV transmission and dissemination. Migration networks could have dispersed HIV throughout Botswana and generated the current hyperendemic epidemic.

Population mobility and the development of Botswana's generalized HIV epidemic: a network analysis

The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV epidemics are generalized. For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, population-level mobility has not yet been studied in the context of the development of generalized HIV epidemics. Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana which has one of the most severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; in 2021, HIV prevalence was 21%. The country reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during the development of Botswana's epidemic, the population was highly mobile and there were substantial urban-to-rural and rural-to-urban migratory flows. We test this hypothesis by conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981 to 2011) of micro-census data from Botswana. We found 10% of the population moved their residency annually, complex migration networks connected urban with rural areas, and there were very high rates of rural-to-urban migration. Notably, we also found mining towns were both important in-flow and out-flow migration hubs; consequently, there was a very high turnover of residents in towns. Our results support our hypothesis, and together, provide one explanation for the development of Botswana's generalized epidemic.

Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Services for HIV Prevention, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2020

Beginning in March 2020, to reduce COVID-19 transmission, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief supporting voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services was delayed in 15 sub-Saharan African countries. We reviewed performance indicators to compare the number of VMMCs performed in 2020 with those performed in previous years. In all countries, the annual number of VMMCs performed decreased 32.5% (from 3,898,960 in 2019 to 2,631,951 in 2020). That reduction is largely attributed to national and local COVID-19 mitigation measures instituted by ministries of health. Overall, 66.7% of the VMMC global annual target was met in 2020, compared with 102.0% in 2019. Countries were not uniformly affected; South Africa achieved only 30.7% of its annual target in 2020, but Rwanda achieved 123.0%. Continued disruption to the VMMC program may lead to reduced circumcision coverage and potentially increased HIV-susceptible populations. Strategies for modifying VMMC services provide lessons for adapting healthcare systems during a global pandemic.

The potential impact of country-level migration networks on HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Botswana

Generalised HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa show substantial geographical variation in prevalence, which is considered when designing epidemic control strategies. We hypothesise that the migratory behaviour of the general population of countries in sub-Saharan Africa could have a substantial effect on HIV epidemics and challenge the elimination effort. To test this hypothesis, we used census data from 2017 to identify, construct, and visualise the migration network of the population of Botswana, which has one of the most severe HIV epidemics worldwide. We found that, over 12 months, approximately 14% of the population moved their residency from one district to another. Four types of migration occurred: urban-to-urban, rural-to-urban, urban-to-rural, and rural-to-rural. Migration is leading to a marked geographical redistribution of the population, causing high rates of population turnover in some areas, and further concentrating the population in urban areas. The migration network could potentially be having a substantial effect on the HIV epidemic of Botswana: changing the location of high-transmission areas, generating cross-country transmission corridors, creating source-sink dynamics, and undermining control strategies. Large-scale migration networks could present a considerable challenge to eliminating HIV in Botswana and in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and should be considered when designing epidemic control strategies.

Community attitudes on tuberculosis in Botswana: an opportunity for improving the National Tuberculosis Programme outcomes, 2011

Objectives

The Botswana tuberculosis HIV Knowledge Attitude and Practice study sought to assess knowledge, attitudes and practices of communities on TB and identify sources of their information on this disease and HIV. Specific objectives of the study were to: (a) collect baseline information on the knowledge, attitudes, and practices about tuberculosis treatment seeking and adherence behaviors in Botswana. (b) Identify barriers which discourage people who may have smear positive tuberculosis from testing and getting treatment (e.g. social stigma) and constraints which prevent them from initiating and completing treatment.

Results

Approximately 92% of respondents (n = 2029), reported that having TB was not something embarrassing, while about 97% (n = 2030) were not ashamed of having a family member with TB. Approximately 95% (n = 2030) expressed willingness to accommodate their relatives with TB at their homes or, work with TB patients (n = 2026). About 21% of the respondents however, believed in myths that TB infection is a result of either having sex with women who had miscarried (n = 2028), or food poisoning (n = 2031) while about 17% believed that TB infection is a result of sleeping with a widow or widower (n = 2031).

Outcomes of the Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme from 2002 to 2010: a longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

Short-term mortality rates among patients with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa are higher than those recorded in high-income countries, but systematic long-term comparisons have not been made because of the scarcity of available data. We analysed the effect of the implementation of Botswana's national ART programme, known as Masa, from 2002 to 2010.

METHODS

The Masa programme started on Jan 21, 2002. Patients who were eligible for ART according to national guidelines had their data collected prospectively through a clinical information system developed by the Botswana Ministry of Health. A dataset of all available electronic records for adults (≥18 years) who had enrolled by April 30, 2010, was extracted and sent to the study team. All data were anonymised before analysis. The primary outcome was mortality. To assess the effect of loss to follow-up, we did a series of sensitivity analyses assuming varying proportions of the population lost to follow-up to be dead.

FINDINGS

We analysed the records of 126,263 patients, of whom 102,713 had documented initiation of ART. Median follow-up time was 35 months (IQR 14-56), with a median of eight follow-up visits (4-14). 15,270 patients were deemed lost to follow-up by the end of the study. 63% (78,866) of the study population were women; median age at baseline was 34 years for women (IQR 29-41) and 38 years for men (33-45). 10,230 (8%) deaths were documented during the 9 years of the study. Mortality was highest during the first 3 months after treatment initiation at 12·8 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 12·4-13·2), but decreased to 1·16 deaths per 100 person-years (1·12-1·2) in the second year of treatment, and to 0·15 deaths per 100 person-years (0·09-0·25) over the next 7 years of follow-up. In each calendar year after the start of the Masa programme in 2002, average CD4 cell counts at enrolment increased (from 101 cells/μL [IQR 44-156] in 2002, to 191 cells/μL [115-239] in 2010). In each year, the proportion of the total enrolled population who died in that year decreased, from 63% (88 of 140) in 2002, to 0·8% (13 of 1599) in 2010. A sensitivity analysis assuming that 60% of the population lost to follow-up had died gave 3000 additional deaths, increasing overall mortality from 8% to 11-13%.

INTERPRETATION

The Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme reduced mortality among adults with HIV to levels much the same as in other low-income or middle-income countries.

FUNDING

The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships.

Establishing a health information workforce: innovation for low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

To address the shortage of health information personnel within Botswana, an innovative human resources approach was taken. University graduates without training or experience in health information or health sciences were hired and provided with on-the-job training and mentoring to create a new cadre of health worker: the district Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Officer. This article describes the early outcomes, achievements, and challenges from this initiative.

METHODS

Data were collected from the district M&E Officers over a 2-year period and included a skills assessment at baseline and 12 months, pre- and post-training tests, interviews during stakeholder site visits, a survey of achievements, focus group discussions, and an attrition assessment.

RESULTS

An average of 2.7 mentoring visits were conducted for M&E Officers in each district. There were five training sessions over 18 months. Knowledge scores significantly increased (p < 0.05) during the three trainings in which pre/post tests were administered. Over 1 year, there were significant improvements (p < 0.05) in self-rated skills related to computer literacy, checking data validity, implementing data quality procedures, using data to support program planning, proposing indicators, and writing M&E reports. Out of the 34 district M&E Officers interviewed during site visits, most were conducting facility visits to review data (27/34; 79%), comparing data sets over time (31/34; 91%), backing up data (32/34; 94%), and analyzing data (32/34; 94%). Common challenges included late facility reports (28/34; 82%), lack of transportation (22/34; 65%), inaccurate facility reports (10/34; 29%), and colleagues' misunderstanding of M&E (10/34; 29%). Six posts were vacated in the first year (6/51; 12%). A total of 49 Officers completed the achievements survey; of these, common accomplishments related to improvements in data management (35/49; 71%), data quality (31/49; 63%), data use (29/49; 59%), and capacity development (26/49; 53%).

CONCLUSIONS

The development of a cadre of district M&E Officers has contributed positively to the health information system in Botswana. In the absence of tertiary training related to health information, on-the-job training and mentoring of university graduates can be an effective approach for developing a new professional cadre of M&E expertise and for strengthening capacity within a national health system.

Use of dual protection in Botswana

High rates of unintended pregnancy and of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections prompt calls for use of "dual-protection" strategies, including consistent condom use or dual-method use. This study examines the use of dual-protection strategies in a sample of 15-49-year-old men and women in Botswana in 2003. Half of sexually active respondents reported consistent condom use in the past year; 2.5 percent reported dual-method use. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that urban residence, less than a ten-year age difference between partners, discussing HIV and contraception with one's partner, not intending to have a child in the next year, having no children, being in a relationship where one or both partners have additional concurrent partners, and supportive condom norms were associated with dual protection--that is, with consistent condom or dual-method use. In the context of high HIV prevalence, concerns about disease prevention likely influence contraception, and interventions should address childbearing desires and sexual risk simultaneously.

Sexual and reproductive health needs of HIV-positive women in Botswana - a study of health care worker's views

Botswana's HIV prevalence is one of the highest in the world at 31.8% in the 15-49 years antenatal population. Being HIV-positive for a woman presents unique challenges with regard to sexuality, child bearing, and partner relations. To ensure optimal sexual and reproductive health (SRH) of HIV-positive women, it is important to understand how health care workers (HCWs) are prepared to address SRH issues such as contraception, fertility desires, and partner violence. This study reports on a knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) questionnaire completed by 98 HCWs from clinics located in and nearby Gaborone and analyzed using descriptive and nonparametric statistics. The majority of participants were nurses (43%), health educators (27%), and lay counselors (19%), 82% female, median age of 35 (Interquartile Range (IQR): 29.25-43.75). General HIV/AIDS knowledge was high with a median score of 8.0/9 (89%) (IQR: 8-9). However, the median SRH knowledge score was much lower at 6.0/10 (60%) (IQR: 4-7). Of the three groups, the SRH knowledge scores of lay counselors were significantly lower than nurses (p=0.024). The attitude scores pertaining to issues such as family planning, sexual violence, the health system's ability to offer SRH services, and personal ability to offer SRH services were moderately positive with a median score of 75% (IQR: 69-81%); although nearly 25% of respondents felt that it is irresponsible for an HIV-positive woman to want to have a child. When presented with a case study of an abused, HIV-positive pregnant woman, most respondents indicated they would offer supportive care without judgment; however 28% of respondents indicated they would express disapproval or disappointment for becoming pregnant when she knows she is HIV-positive. The low SRH knowledge scores together with discriminatory attitudes and practices emphasize the need for increased and ongoing training in SRH issues for all HCWs who provide care for HIV-positive women.

The Madikwe Forum: a comprehensive partnership for supporting governance of Botswana's HIV and AIDS response

There is a need for actors within the philanthropic sector to pursue collaborative partnerships with developing nations which could result in sustainable country-led responses to HIV and AIDS. There is also a need to evaluate the structures governing these partnerships in order to determine their effectiveness in strengthening national responses to HIV and AIDS. This article presents findings from a qualitative study of a governance structure of the African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships (ACHAP), namely the Madikwe Forum. The investigation sought to critically reflect on the role and effectiveness of the Madikwe Forum in Botswana's response to HIV and AIDS and to consider the value of such a forum for other developing nations and partnership arrangements. The findings indicate that the Madikwe Forum has enabled considerable progress in the implementation of ACHAP-supported initiatives in Botswana. The constructive working relationship and close alignment between ACHAP and the Botswana government's objectives and priority areas were viewed as critical to this success. However, problems exist regarding the operation of the forum as well as a lack of focus on monitoring and evaluation, which requires the forum's urgent attention.

Modeling dynamic interactions between pre-exposure prophylaxis interventions & treatment programs: predicting HIV transmission & resistance

Clinical trials have recently demonstrated the effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV infection. Consequently, PrEP may soon be used for epidemic control. We model the dynamic interactions that will occur between treatment programs and potential PrEP interventions in resource-constrained countries. We determine the consequences for HIV transmission and drug resistance. We use response hypersurface modeling to predict the effect of PrEP on decreasing transmission as a function of effectiveness, adherence and coverage. We predict PrEP will increase need for second-line therapies (SLT) for treatment-naïve individuals, but could significantly decrease need for SLT for treatment-experienced individuals. If the rollout of PrEP is carefully planned it could increase the sustainability of treatment programs. If not, need for SLT could increase and the sustainability of treatment programs could be compromised. Our results show the optimal strategy for rolling out PrEP in resource-constrained countries is to begin around the "worst" treatment programs.

Initial response to highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1C-infected adults in a public sector treatment program in Botswana

OBJECTIVE

To describe the response to highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) in a public sector pilot antiretroviral (ARV) treatment program in Botswana.

METHODS

The response to HAART is described in adult HIV-infected ARV-naive patients initiating treatment from April 2001 to January 2002 at Princess Marina Hospital in Gaborone, Botswana. Patients had medical and laboratory evaluations before initiating ARV treatment and were followed longitudinally. For analysis, data were collected from charts and patient management records.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-three ARV-naive patients initiated HAART. Most received didanosine plus stavudine (ddI + d4T) with efavirenz or nevirapine. The mean CD4 cell count increase was 149 cells/mm at 24 weeks and 204 cells/mm at 48 weeks. The percentage of patients with an HIV-1 RNA level < or =400 copies/mL was 87.0% at 24 weeks and 78.8% at 48 weeks. The Kaplan-Meier 1-year survival estimate was 84.7% (79.0%, 90.8%), with a 3.2-fold increased risk (P = 0.004) of mortality among patients with a CD4 cell count <50 cells/mm. The 1-year Kaplan-Meier estimate of toxicity-related drug switches was 32.2% (20.3%, 40.4%). The most common toxicity was peripheral neuropathy, occurring more frequently in patients with a preexisting diagnosis of peripheral neuropathy and among those placed on ddI + d4T-containing regimens.

CONCLUSIONS

An excellent response to HAART was observed among HIV-1C-infected patients, paralleling those seen elsewhere. Despite excellent responses, high rates of toxicity were observed for ddI + d4T-containing regimens.