Polygenic hazard score to guide screening for aggressive prostate cancer: development and validation in large scale cohorts

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age.

DESIGN

Analysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa.

SETTING

Multiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium.

PARTICIPANTS

All consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set.

RESULTS

In the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10-16). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score.

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.

Risk of prostate cancer diagnosis and mortality in men with a benign initial transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy set: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The risk of missing prostate cancer in the transrectal ultrasound-guided systematic biopsies of the prostate in men with suspected prostate cancer is a key problem in urological oncology. Repeat biopsy or MRI-guided biopsies have been suggested to increase sensitivity for diagnosis of prostate cancer, but the risk of disease-specific mortality in men who present with raised prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration and a benign initial biopsy result remains unknown. We investigated the risk of overall and prostate cancer-specific mortality in men with a benign initial biopsy set.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Danish Prostate Cancer Registry-a population-based registry including all men undergoing histopathological assessment of prostate tissue. All men who were referred for transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy for assessment of suspected prostate cancer between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2011, in Denmark were eligible for inclusion. Follow-up data were obtained on April 28, 2015. The primary endpoint was the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer-specific mortality, analysed in a competing risk setting, with death from other causes as the competing event.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2011, 64 430 men were referred for transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy, of whom 63 454 were eligible for inclusion. Median follow-up was 5·9 years (IQR 3·8-8·5) and the total follow-up time, from the enrolment of the first patient on Jan 1, 1995, until the extraction of causes of death on April 28, 2015, was 20 years. 10 407 (30%) of 35 159 men with malignant initial biopsy sets died from prostate cancer, compared with 541 (2%) of 27 181 men with benign initial biopsy sets. Estimated overall 20-year mortality was 76·1% (95% CI 73·0-79·2). In all men referred for transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy, the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer-specific mortality after 20 years was 25·6% (24·7-26·5) versus 50·5% (47·5-53·5) for mortality from other causes. In men with benign initial biopsy sets, the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer-specific mortality was 5·2% (3·9-6·5) versus 59·9% (55·2-64·6) for mortality from other causes. In men with PSA concentrations 10 μg/L or lower and benign initial biopsy sets (2779 men), the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer-specific mortality was 0·7% (0·2-1·3). Cumulative incidence of prostate cancer specific mortality in men with benign initial biopsy sets was 3·6% (95% CI 0·1-7·2) for men with a PSA higher than 10 ng/mL but 20 ng/mL or less (855 men) and 17·6% (12·7-22·4) and for men with a PSA higher than 20 ng/mL (454 men).

INTERPRETATION

The first systematic transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy set holds important prognostic information. The 20-year risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality in men with benign initial results is low. Our findings question whether men with low PSA concentration and a benign initial biopsy set should undergo further diagnostic assessment in view of the high risk of mortality from other causes.

FUNDING

Capital Region of Denmark's Fund for Health Research, Danish Cancer Society, Danish Association for Cancer Research, and Krista and Viggo Petersen's Foundation.

Danish Prostate Cancer Registry - methodology and early results from a novel national database

Background

Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine (SNOMED) codes are computer-processable medical terms used to describe histopathological evaluations. SNOMED codes are not readily usable for analysis. We invented an algorithm that converts prostate SNOMED codes into an analyzable format. We present the methodology and early results from a new national Danish prostate database containing clinical data from all males who had evaluation of prostate tissue from 1995 to 2011.

Materials and methods

SNOMED codes were retrieved from the Danish Pathology Register. A total of 26,295 combinations of SNOMED codes were identified. A computer algorithm was developed to transcode SNOMED codes into an analyzable format including procedure (eg, biopsy, transurethral resection, etc), diagnosis, and date of diagnosis. For validation, ~55,000 pathological reports were manually reviewed. Prostate-specific antigen, vital status, causes of death, and tumor-node-metastasis classification were integrated from national registries.

Results

Of the 161,525 specimens from 113,801 males identified, 83,379 (51.6%) were sets of prostate biopsies, 56,118 (34.7%) were transurethral/transvesical resections of the prostate (TUR-Ps), and the remaining 22,028 (13.6%) specimens were derived from radical prostatectomies, bladder interventions, etc. A total of 48,078 (42.2%) males had histopathologically verified prostate cancer, and of these, 78.8% and 16.8% were diagnosed on prostate biopsies and TUR-Ps, respectively.

Future perspectives

A validated algorithm was successfully developed to convert complex prostate SNOMED codes into clinical useful data. A unique database, including males with both normal and cancerous histopathological data, was created to form the most comprehensive national prostate database to date. Potentially, our algorithm can be used for conversion of other SNOMED data and is available upon request.

ERG protein expression over time: from diagnostic biopsies to radical prostatectomy specimens in clinically localised prostate cancer

Aims

We evaluated the consistency in ERG protein expression from diagnostic specimens through rebiopsies to radical prostatectomies in patients with clinically localised prostate cancer to investigate the validity of ERG status in biopsies.

Methods

ERG expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in 625 biopsy sets and 86 radical prostatectomy specimens from 265 patients with prostate cancer managed on active surveillance. For IHC, a rabbit monoclonal primary antibody was used (clone: EPR3864). TMPRSS2-ERG fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) analyses were performed in 74 biopsies using the FISH ZytoLight TriCheck Probe (SPEC ERG/TMPRSS2). FISH results were correlated with IHC findings.

Results

The concordance between FISH and IHC was 97.3% and IHC demonstrated a sensitivity and specificity for ERG rearrangement of 100% and 95.5%, respectively. Applying IHC, 38.1% of patients were ERG-positive, 53.6% were ERG-negative and 8.3% showed both ERG-positive and negative tumour foci (ERG heterogeneous) at diagnosis. When ERG status was dichotomised (ERG-positive or heterogeneous vs ERG-negative), 95.6%–97.1% of patients did not experience ERG reclassification during the first two rounds of rebiopsies. The concordance in ERG status between biopsies and surgical specimen was 89.5%–94.2% depending on the number of rebiopsies included. Sampling bias was assumed to explain most (81.3%) of the mismatches in ERG status.

Conclusions

Consistency in ERG status ranged from 90% to 95% for patients undergoing serial biopsies and radical prostatectomy. This indicates that biopsies can be used reliably to investigate ERG's prognostic and predictive value.

Urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (uPAR) as a novel biomarker in prostate cancer

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Background: New biomarkers are warranted to distinguish between indolent and aggressive prostate cancer (PCa). The urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (uPAR) plays an important role in pericellular proteolysis by binding urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA). This is required for degradation of the extracellular matrix and for cancer invasion. In addition to binding uPAR, uPA cleaves uPAR liberating uPAR(I) and uPAR(II-III). Intact, uPAR(I-III), and uPAR(II-III) can be liberated from the cell surface resulting in three different uPAR forms in circulation. The different uPAR forms are strong prognostic markers in several cancers. We measured the uPAR forms in plasma from patients with different stages of PCa. Methods: Between February 1, 2012 and October 1, 2014, 400 patients with PCa (se table) had plasma samples obtained. The levels of intact uPAR [uPAR(I-III)], intact uPAR + cleaved uPAR domains II+III [uPAR(I-III) + uPAR(II-III)], and cleaved uPAR domain I [uPAR(I)] were determined in citrated plasma samples with two-site sandwich time-resolved fluorescence immunoassays (TR-FIAs). Results: Plasma uPAR(I-III) + uPAR(II-III) and uPAR(I) were significantly higher in hormone naïve patients and CRPC patients compared to patients with localized disease (see table). Quantification of intact uPAR(I-III) revealed no significant differences between the three groups. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that uPAR(I-III) + uPAR(II-III) and uPAR(I) are associated with higher tumor stage as well as advanced PCa disease. These associations suggest that uPAR domains in plasma harbour prognostic value for PCa patients. Further studies are warranted to validate the use of uPAR forms as biomarkers for PCa. [Table: see text]

Active surveillance for localized prostate cancer: an analysis of patient contacts and utilization of healthcare resources

OBJECTIVE

Evidence supports active surveillance (AS) as a means to reduce overtreatment of low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). The consequences of close and long-standing follow-up with regard to outpatient visits, tests and repeated biopsies are widely unknown. This study investigated the trajectory and costs of AS in patients with localized PCa.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 317 PCa patients were followed in a prospective, single-arm AS cohort. The primary outcomes were number of patient contacts, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests, biopsies, hospital admissions due to biopsy complications and patients eventually undergoing curative treatment. The secondary outcome was cost.

RESULTS

The 5 year cumulative incidence of discontinued AS in a competing-risk model was 40%. During the first 5 years of AS patients underwent a median of two biopsy sets, and patients were seen in an outpatient clinic including PSA testing three to four times annually. In total, 38 of the 406 biopsy sessions led to hospital admission and 87 of the 317 patients required treatment for bladder outlet obstruction (BOO). With a median of 3.7 years' follow-up, the total cost of AS was euro (€) 1,240,286. Assuming all patients had otherwise undergone primary radical prostatectomy, the cost difference favoured AS with a net benefit of €662,661 (35% reduction).

CONCLUSIONS

AS entails a close clinical follow-up with a considerable risk of rebiopsy complication, treatment of BOO and subsequent delayed definitive therapy. This risk should be weighed against a potential economic benefit and reduction in the risk of overtreatment compared to immediate radical treatment.

Active surveillance for clinically localized prostate cancer--a systematic review

Active surveillance (AS) has been introduced as an observational strategy to delay or avoid curative treatment without compromising long-term cancer-specific survival. The 10 studies included in this review, published between 2008 and 2013, generally agreed upon patients selection for the AS strategy and how they should be managed within the program. However, uncertainties persists concerning optimal patient selection and reliable progression criteria, as well as the long-term safety of AS.

Identification of 23 new prostate cancer susceptibility loci using the iCOGS custom genotyping array

Prostate cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in males in developed countries. To identify common prostate cancer susceptibility alleles, we genotyped 211,155 SNPs on a custom Illumina array (iCOGS) in blood DNA from 25,074 prostate cancer cases and 24,272 controls from the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Twenty-three new prostate cancer susceptibility loci were identified at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)). More than 70 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, explaining ∼30% of the familial risk for this disease, have now been identified. On the basis of combined risks conferred by the new and previously known risk loci, the top 1% of the risk distribution has a 4.7-fold higher risk than the average of the population being profiled. These results will facilitate population risk stratification for clinical studies.

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to identify prostate cancer susceptibility loci associated with aggressive and non-aggressive disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common genetic variants associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (PrCa), but these explain less than one-third of the heritability. To identify further susceptibility alleles, we conducted a meta-analysis of four GWAS including 5953 cases of aggressive PrCa and 11 463 controls (men without PrCa). We computed association tests for approximately 2.6 million SNPs and followed up the most significant SNPs by genotyping 49 121 samples in 29 studies through the international PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. We not only confirmed the association of a PrCa susceptibility locus, rs11672691 on chromosome 19, but also showed an association with aggressive PrCa [odds ratio = 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.21), P = 1.4 × 10(-8)]. This report describes a genetic variant which is associated with aggressive PrCa, which is a type of PrCa associated with a poorer prognosis.