Characterizing prostate cancer risk through multi-ancestry genome-wide discovery of 187 novel risk variants

The transferability and clinical value of genetic risk scores (GRSs) across populations remain limited due to an imbalance in genetic studies across ancestrally diverse populations. Here we conducted a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 156,319 prostate cancer cases and 788,443 controls of European, African, Asian and Hispanic men, reflecting a 57% increase in the number of non-European cases over previous prostate cancer genome-wide association studies. We identified 187 novel risk variants for prostate cancer, increasing the total number of risk variants to 451. An externally replicated multi-ancestry GRS was associated with risk that ranged from 1.8 (per standard deviation) in African ancestry men to 2.2 in European ancestry men. The GRS was associated with a greater risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive disease in men of African ancestry (P = 0.03). Our study presents novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci and a GRS with effective risk stratification across ancestry groups.

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of prostate cancer identifies new susceptibility loci and informs genetic risk prediction

Prostate cancer is a highly heritable disease with large disparities in incidence rates across ancestry populations. We conducted a multiancestry meta-analysis of prostate cancer genome-wide association studies (107,247 cases and 127,006 controls) and identified 86 new genetic risk variants independently associated with prostate cancer risk, bringing the total to 269 known risk variants. The top genetic risk score (GRS) decile was associated with odds ratios that ranged from 5.06 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.84-5.29) for men of European ancestry to 3.74 (95% CI, 3.36-4.17) for men of African ancestry. Men of African ancestry were estimated to have a mean GRS that was 2.18-times higher (95% CI, 2.14-2.22), and men of East Asian ancestry 0.73-times lower (95% CI, 0.71-0.76), than men of European ancestry. These findings support the role of germline variation contributing to population differences in prostate cancer risk, with the GRS offering an approach for personalized risk prediction.

Publisher Correction: Shared heritability and functional enrichment across six solid cancers

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Author Correction: Association analyses of more than 140,000 men identify 63 new prostate cancer susceptibility loci

In the version of this article initially published, the name of author Manuela Gago-Dominguez was misspelled as Manuela Gago Dominguez. The error has been corrected in the HTML and PDF version of the article.

Shared heritability and functional enrichment across six solid cancers

Quantifying the genetic correlation between cancers can provide important insights into the mechanisms driving cancer etiology. Using genome-wide association study summary statistics across six cancer types based on a total of 296,215 cases and 301,319 controls of European ancestry, here we estimate the pair-wise genetic correlations between breast, colorectal, head/neck, lung, ovary and prostate cancer, and between cancers and 38 other diseases. We observed statistically significant genetic correlations between lung and head/neck cancer (rg = 0.57, p = 4.6 × 10-8), breast and ovarian cancer (rg = 0.24, p = 7 × 10-5), breast and lung cancer (rg = 0.18, p =1.5 × 10-6) and breast and colorectal cancer (rg = 0.15, p = 1.1 × 10-4). We also found that multiple cancers are genetically correlated with non-cancer traits including smoking, psychiatric diseases and metabolic characteristics. Functional enrichment analysis revealed a significant excess contribution of conserved and regulatory regions to cancer heritability. Our comprehensive analysis of cross-cancer heritability suggests that solid tumors arising across tissues share in part a common germline genetic basis.

Author Correction: Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of the author Manuela Gago-Dominguez, which was incorrectly given as Manuela G. Dominguez. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Circulating Metabolic Biomarkers of Screen-Detected Prostate Cancer in the ProtecT Study

BACKGROUND

Whether associations between circulating metabolites and prostate cancer are causal is unknown. We report on the largest study of metabolites and prostate cancer (2,291 cases and 2,661 controls) and appraise causality for a subset of the prostate cancer-metabolite associations using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR).

METHODS

The case-control portion of the study was conducted in nine UK centers with men ages 50-69 years who underwent prostate-specific antigen screening for prostate cancer within the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial. Two data sources were used to appraise causality: a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of metabolites in 24,925 participants and a GWAS of prostate cancer in 44,825 cases and 27,904 controls within the Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL) consortium.

RESULTS

Thirty-five metabolites were strongly associated with prostate cancer (P < 0.0014, multiple-testing threshold). These fell into four classes: (i) lipids and lipoprotein subclass characteristics (total cholesterol and ratios, cholesterol esters and ratios, free cholesterol and ratios, phospholipids and ratios, and triglyceride ratios); (ii) fatty acids and ratios; (iii) amino acids; (iv) and fluid balance. Fourteen top metabolites were proxied by genetic variables, but MR indicated these were not causal.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified 35 circulating metabolites associated with prostate cancer presence, but found no evidence of causality for those 14 testable with MR. Thus, the 14 MR-tested metabolites are unlikely to be mechanistically important in prostate cancer risk.

IMPACT

The metabolome provides a promising set of biomarkers that may aid prostate cancer classification.

AA9int: SNP interaction pattern search using non-hierarchical additive model set

Motivation

The use of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions to predict complex diseases is getting more attention during the past decade, but related statistical methods are still immature. We previously proposed the SNP Interaction Pattern Identifier (SIPI) approach to evaluate 45 SNP interaction patterns/patterns. SIPI is statistically powerful but suffers from a large computation burden. For large-scale studies, it is necessary to use a powerful and computation-efficient method. The objective of this study is to develop an evidence-based mini-version of SIPI as the screening tool or solitary use and to evaluate the impact of inheritance mode and model structure on detecting SNP-SNP interactions.

Results

We tested two candidate approaches: the 'Five-Full' and 'AA9int' method. The Five-Full approach is composed of the five full interaction models considering three inheritance modes (additive, dominant and recessive). The AA9int approach is composed of nine interaction models by considering non-hierarchical model structure and the additive mode. Our simulation results show that AA9int has similar statistical power compared to SIPI and is superior to the Five-Full approach, and the impact of the non-hierarchical model structure is greater than that of the inheritance mode in detecting SNP-SNP interactions. In summary, it is recommended that AA9int is a powerful tool to be used either alone or as the screening stage of a two-stage approach (AA9int+SIPI) for detecting SNP-SNP interactions in large-scale studies.

Availability and implementation

The 'AA9int' and 'parAA9int' functions (standard and parallel computing version) are added in the SIPI R package, which is freely available at https://linhuiyi.github.io/LinHY_Software/.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry

Chromosome 8q24 is a susceptibility locus for multiple cancers, including prostate cancer. Here we combine genetic data across the 8q24 susceptibility region from 71,535 prostate cancer cases and 52,935 controls of European ancestry to define the overall contribution of germline variation at 8q24 to prostate cancer risk. We identify 12 independent risk signals for prostate cancer (p < 4.28 × 10-15), including three risk variants that have yet to be reported. From a polygenic risk score (PRS) model, derived to assess the cumulative effect of risk variants at 8q24, men in the top 1% of the PRS have a 4-fold (95%CI = 3.62-4.40) greater risk compared to the population average. These 12 variants account for ~25% of what can be currently explained of the familial risk of prostate cancer by known genetic risk factors. These findings highlight the overwhelming contribution of germline variation at 8q24 on prostate cancer risk which has implications for population risk stratification.

Abstract 227: Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry

We performed an in-depth and well-powered investigation of genetic variation across the cancer susceptibility region at chromosome 8q24 (127.6-129.0 Mb) to search for novel risk variants associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk in the European ancestry population. We combined genotyped and imputed data from the PRACTICAL/ELLIPSE OncoArray and iCOGS consortia consisting of 71,535 PrCa cases and 52,935 controls of European ancestry. Variants with high imputation quality score (&gt;0.8) were retained for a total of 5,600 overlapping variants between the two datasets. Associations of genetic variants with PCa risk were evaluated using unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for country and ten principal components. The marginal risk estimates for the 5,600 variants that passed quality control were combined by a fixed effects meta-analysis. A meta-stepwise selection was performed on variants marginally associated with PCa risk from the meta results (P&lt;0.05). A polygenic risk score and the contribution to the familial relative risk of PCa were estimated for variants from the final model. Of the 5,600 variants at 8q24 retained for analysis, 1,268 (23%) were associated with PCa risk at P&lt;5x10-8 while 2,772 (49%) were marginally associated at P&lt;0.05. In the stepwise model, 12 variants remained statistically significantly associated with PCa risk with conditional meta p-values between 2.93x10-137 and 4.28x10-15. The independent stepwise signals were confirmed by Joint Analysis of Marginal (JAM) summary statistics, which defined the credible sets of variants driving those signals. Three of the variants (rs1914295, rs190257175, rs12549761) were weakly correlated (r2≤0.17) with any known PCa risk marker, and may define novel association signals. Men in the top 1% of the polygenic risk score distribution had a 3.97-fold relative risk (95%CI=3.87-4.07) compared to men with "average risk" (25th-75th percentiles). The 12 independent signals at 8q24 capture 11.54% (95%CI=9.86-13.65) of the familial relative risk of PCa, which is approximately one quarter of the total PCa familial relative risk explained by known genetic risk factors. Most of the independently associated signals have good evidence for biologic functionality; in particular, many reside within putative transcriptional enhancers and/or binding sites for AR and FOXA1 transcription factors in prostate cell lines. In summary, we defined 12 independent association signals among men of European ancestry, with three of the risk variants representing putative novel association signals. Whereas the individual associations of these variants with PCa risk are relatively modest (ORs&lt;2.0), their cumulative effects are substantial, and their contribution to the overall familial relative risk of PCa is substantially greater than any other known prostate cancer risk locus.

Citation Format: Marco Matejcic, Edward J. Saunders, Tokhir Dadaev, Mark Brook, Ali Amin Al Olama, Fredrick R. Schumacher, Sonja I. Berndt, Sara Benlloch, Kenneth Muir, Koveela Govindasami, Victoria L. Stevens, Susan M. Gapstur, Catherine M. Tangen, Jyotsna Batra, Judith Clements, APCB (Australian Prostate Cancer Bio Resource), Henrik Gronberg, Nora Pashayan, Johanna Schleutker, Demetrius Albanes, Alicja Wolk, Catharine West, Lorelei Mucci, Peter Kraft, Géraldine Cancel-Tassin, Stella Koutros, Karina Dalsgaard Sorensen, Lovise Maehle, Eli Marie Grindedal, Sara Strom, David E. Neal, Freddie C. Hamdy, Jenny L. Donovan, Ruth C. Travis, Robert J. Hamilton, Sue Ann Ingles, Barry Rosenstein, Yong-Jie Lu, Graham G. Giles, Adam S. Kibel, Ana Vega, Jeanette Bensen, Manolis Kogevinas, Fredrik Wiklund, Stephen Chanock, Douglas F. Easton, Rosalind A. Eeles, Zsofia Kote-Jarai, David V. Conti, Christopher A. Haiman. Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 227.

Association analyses of more than 140,000 men identify 63 new prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and fine-mapping efforts to date have identified more than 100 prostate cancer (PrCa)-susceptibility loci. We meta-analyzed genotype data from a custom high-density array of 46,939 PrCa cases and 27,910 controls of European ancestry with previously genotyped data of 32,255 PrCa cases and 33,202 controls of European ancestry. Our analysis identified 62 novel loci associated (P < 5.0 × 10-8) with PrCa and one locus significantly associated with early-onset PrCa (≤55 years). Our findings include missense variants rs1800057 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.16; P = 8.2 × 10-9; G>C, p.Pro1054Arg) in ATM and rs2066827 (OR = 1.06; P = 2.3 × 10-9; T>G, p.Val109Gly) in CDKN1B. The combination of all loci captured 28.4% of the PrCa familial relative risk, and a polygenic risk score conferred an elevated PrCa risk for men in the ninetieth to ninety-ninth percentiles (relative risk = 2.69; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.55-2.82) and first percentile (relative risk = 5.71; 95% CI: 5.04-6.48) risk stratum compared with the population average. These findings improve risk prediction, enhance fine-mapping, and provide insight into the underlying biology of PrCa1.

Fine-mapping of prostate cancer susceptibility loci in a large meta-analysis identifies candidate causal variants

Prostate cancer is a polygenic disease with a large heritable component. A number of common, low-penetrance prostate cancer risk loci have been identified through GWAS. Here we apply the Bayesian multivariate variable selection algorithm JAM to fine-map 84 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, using summary data from a large European ancestry meta-analysis. We observe evidence for multiple independent signals at 12 regions and 99 risk signals overall. Only 15 original GWAS tag SNPs remain among the catalogue of candidate variants identified; the remainder are replaced by more likely candidates. Biological annotation of our credible set of variants indicates significant enrichment within promoter and enhancer elements, and transcription factor-binding sites, including AR, ERG and FOXA1. In 40 regions at least one variant is colocalised with an eQTL in prostate cancer tissue. The refined set of candidate variants substantially increase the proportion of familial relative risk explained by these known susceptibility regions, which highlights the importance of fine-mapping studies and has implications for clinical risk profiling.

Gene and pathway level analyses of germline DNA-repair gene variants and prostate cancer susceptibility using the iCOGS-genotyping array

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/bjc.2016.50.

SNP interaction pattern identifier (SIPI): an intensive search for SNP-SNP interaction patterns

Motivation

Testing SNP-SNP interactions is considered as a key for overcoming bottlenecks of genetic association studies. However, related statistical methods for testing SNP-SNP interactions are underdeveloped.

Results

We propose the SNP Interaction Pattern Identifier (SIPI), which tests 45 biologically meaningful interaction patterns for a binary outcome. SIPI takes non-hierarchical models, inheritance modes and mode coding direction into consideration. The simulation results show that SIPI has higher power than MDR (Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction), AA_Full, Geno_Full (full interaction model with additive or genotypic mode) and SNPassoc in detecting interactions. Applying SIPI to the prostate cancer PRACTICAL consortium data with approximately 21 000 patients, the four SNP pairs in EGFR-EGFR , EGFR-MMP16 and EGFR-CSF1 were found to be associated with prostate cancer aggressiveness with the exact or similar pattern in the discovery and validation sets. A similar match for external validation of SNP-SNP interaction studies is suggested. We demonstrated that SIPI not only searches for more meaningful interaction patterns but can also overcome the unstable nature of interaction patterns.

Availability and Implementation

The SIPI software is freely available at http://publichealth.lsuhsc.edu/LinSoftware/ .

Contact

hlin1@lsuhsc.edu.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Prostate cancer meta-analysis from more than 145,000 men to identify 65 novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci

1

Background: Currently genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 100 prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci, capturing 33% of the PrCa familial relative risk (FRR) in Europeans. To identify further susceptibility variants, we conducted a PrCa GWAS, larger than previous studies, comprising ~49,000 cases and ~29,000 controls among individuals of European and Asian descent using the OncoArray, a platform consisting of a 260K GWAS backbone and 310K custom content selected from previous GWAS and fine-mapping studies of multiple cancers ( http://epi.grants.cancer.gov/oncoarray/ ). Methods: Genotypes from the OncoArray were used to impute genotypes from ~70M variants using the October 2014 release of the 1000 genomes project as a reference, and then combined with several previous PrCa GWAS of European ancestry: UK stage 1 (1,906 cases/1,934 controls) and stage 2 (3,888 cases/3,956 controls); CaPS 1 (498 cases/502 controls) and CaPS 2 (1,483 cases/519 controls); BPC3 (2,137 cases/3,101 controls); NCI PEGASUS (4,622 cases/2,954 controls); and iCOGS (21,209 cases/ 20,440 controls). Risk analyses for overall PrCa risk, aggressive PrCa (several definitions defined by PrCa clinical characteristics), and Gleason score were performed. Logistic and linear regression summary statistics were meta-analysed using an inverse variance fixed effect approach. Results: We identified novel loci significantly associated ( P < 5.0x10-8) with overall PrCa (N = 65). Our novel findings are comprised of several missense variants, including a SNP in the ATM gene - a key member of the DNA repair pathway. When combined multiplicatively, the 65 novel PrCa loci identified here increases the captured heritability of PrCa, explaining 38.5% of the FRR when combining novel and previously identified PrCa loci. Conclusions: In risk stratification, men in the top 1% of the genetic risk score group have a relative risk of 5.6 fold for developing PrCa compared with the median risk group. These results will improve the utility of genetic risk scores for targeted screening and prevention for prostate cancer.

Investigating the possible causal role of coffee consumption with prostate cancer risk and progression using Mendelian randomization analysis

Coffee consumption has been shown in some studies to be associated with lower risk of prostate cancer. However, it is unclear if this association is causal or due to confounding or reverse causality. We conducted a Mendelian randomisation analysis to investigate the causal effects of coffee consumption on prostate cancer risk and progression. We used two genetic variants robustly associated with caffeine intake (rs4410790 and rs2472297) as proxies for coffee consumption in a sample of 46,687 men of European ancestry from 25 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. Associations between genetic variants and prostate cancer case status, stage and grade were assessed by logistic regression and with all-cause and prostate cancer-specific mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression. There was no clear evidence that a genetic risk score combining rs4410790 and rs2472297 was associated with prostate cancer risk (OR per additional coffee increasing allele: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.98,1.03) or having high-grade compared to low-grade disease (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.97,1.04). There was some evidence that the genetic risk score was associated with higher odds of having nonlocalised compared to localised stage disease (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.06). Amongst men with prostate cancer, there was no clear association between the genetic risk score and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97,1.04) or prostate cancer-specific mortality (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.98,1.08). These results, which should have less bias from confounding than observational estimates, are not consistent with a substantial effect of coffee consumption on reducing prostate cancer incidence or progression.

The OncoArray Consortium: A Network for Understanding the Genetic Architecture of Common Cancers

BACKGROUND

Common cancers develop through a multistep process often including inherited susceptibility. Collaboration among multiple institutions, and funding from multiple sources, has allowed the development of an inexpensive genotyping microarray, the OncoArray. The array includes a genome-wide backbone, comprising 230,000 SNPs tagging most common genetic variants, together with dense mapping of known susceptibility regions, rare variants from sequencing experiments, pharmacogenetic markers, and cancer-related traits.

METHODS

The OncoArray can be genotyped using a novel technology developed by Illumina to facilitate efficient genotyping. The consortium developed standard approaches for selecting SNPs for study, for quality control of markers, and for ancestry analysis. The array was genotyped at selected sites and with prespecified replicate samples to permit evaluation of genotyping accuracy among centers and by ethnic background.

RESULTS

The OncoArray consortium genotyped 447,705 samples. A total of 494,763 SNPs passed quality control steps with a sample success rate of 97% of the samples. Participating sites performed ancestry analysis using a common set of markers and a scoring algorithm based on principal components analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from these analyses will enable researchers to identify new susceptibility loci, perform fine-mapping of new or known loci associated with either single or multiple cancers, assess the degree of overlap in cancer causation and pleiotropic effects of loci that have been identified for disease-specific risk, and jointly model genetic, environmental, and lifestyle-related exposures.

IMPACT

Ongoing analyses will shed light on etiology and risk assessment for many types of cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(1); 126-35. ©2016 AACR.

Alcohol consumption and prostate cancer incidence and progression: A Mendelian randomisation study

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in developed countries, and is a target for risk reduction strategies. The effects of alcohol consumption on prostate cancer incidence and survival remain unclear, potentially due to methodological limitations of observational studies. In this study, we investigated the associations of genetic variants in alcohol-metabolising genes with prostate cancer incidence and survival. We analysed data from 23,868 men with prostate cancer and 23,051 controls from 25 studies within the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Study-specific associations of 68 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 8 alcohol-metabolising genes (Alcohol Dehydrogenases (ADHs) and Aldehyde Dehydrogenases (ALDHs)) with prostate cancer diagnosis and prostate cancer-specific mortality, by grade, were assessed using logistic and Cox regression models, respectively. The data across the 25 studies were meta-analysed using fixed-effect and random-effects models. We found little evidence that variants in alcohol metabolising genes were associated with prostate cancer diagnosis. Four variants in two genes exceeded the multiple testing threshold for associations with prostate cancer mortality in fixed-effect meta-analyses. SNPs within ALDH1A2 associated with prostate cancer mortality were rs1441817 (fixed effects hazard ratio, HRfixed  = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.66,0.91; p values = 0.002); rs12910509, HRfixed  = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.91; p values = 0.003); and rs8041922 (HRfixed  = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.91; p values = 0.002). These SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium with each other. In ALDH1B1, rs10973794 (HRfixed  = 1.43; 95%CI:1.14,1.79; p values = 0.002) was associated with prostate cancer mortality in men with low-grade prostate cancer. These results suggest that alcohol consumption is unlikely to affect prostate cancer incidence, but it may influence disease progression.

Prostate cancer risk regions at 8q24 and 17q24 are differentially associated with somatic TMPRSS2:ERG fusion status

Molecular and epidemiological differences have been described between TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-positive and fusion-negative prostate cancer (PrCa). Assuming two molecularly distinct subtypes, we have examined 27 common PrCa risk variants, previously identified in genome-wide association studies, for subtype specific associations in a total of 1221 TMPRSS2:ERG phenotyped PrCa cases. In meta-analyses of a discovery set of 552 cases with TMPRSS2:ERG data and 7650 unaffected men from five centers we have found support for the hypothesis that several common risk variants are associated with one particular subtype rather than with PrCa in general. Risk variants were analyzed in case-case comparisons (296 TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-positive versus 256 fusion-negative cases) and an independent set of 669 cases with TMPRSS2:ERG data was established to replicate the top five candidates. Significant differences (P < 0.00185) between the two subtypes were observed for rs16901979 (8q24) and rs1859962 (17q24), which were enriched in TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-negative (OR = 0.53, P = 0.0007) and TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-positive PrCa (OR = 1.30, P = 0.0016), respectively. Expression quantitative trait locus analysis was performed to investigate mechanistic links between risk variants, fusion status and target gene mRNA levels. For rs1859962 at 17q24, genotype dependent expression was observed for the candidate target gene SOX9 in TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-positive PrCa, which was not evident in TMPRSS2:ERG negative tumors. The present study established evidence for the first two common PrCa risk variants differentially associated with TMPRSS2:ERG fusion status. TMPRSS2:ERG phenotyping of larger studies is required to determine comprehensive sets of variants with subtype-specific roles in PrCa.

PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM rare variants and cancer risk: data from COGS

BACKGROUND

The rarity of mutations in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM make it difficult to estimate precisely associated cancer risks. Population-based family studies have provided evidence that at least some of these mutations are associated with breast cancer risk as high as those associated with rare BRCA2 mutations. We aimed to estimate the relative risks associated with specific rare variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM via a multicentre case-control study.

METHODS

We genotyped 10 rare mutations using the custom iCOGS array: PALB2 c.1592delT, c.2816T>G and c.3113G>A, CHEK2 c.349A>G, c.538C>T, c.715G>A, c.1036C>T, c.1312G>T, and c.1343T>G and ATM c.7271T>G. We assessed associations with breast cancer risk (42 671 cases and 42 164 controls), as well as prostate (22 301 cases and 22 320 controls) and ovarian (14 542 cases and 23 491 controls) cancer risk, for each variant.

RESULTS

For European women, strong evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for PALB2 c.1592delT OR 3.44 (95% CI 1.39 to 8.52, p=7.1×10-5), PALB2 c.3113G>A OR 4.21 (95% CI 1.84 to 9.60, p=6.9×10-8) and ATM c.7271T>G OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.42 to 85.7, p=0.0012). We also found evidence of association with breast cancer risk for three variants in CHEK2, c.349A>G OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.29 to 3.95), c.1036C>T OR 5.06 (95% CI 1.09 to 23.5) and c.538C>T OR 1.33 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.67) (p≤0.017). Evidence for prostate cancer risk was observed for CHEK2 c.1343T>G OR 3.03 (95% CI 1.53 to 6.03, p=0.0006) for African men and CHEK2 c.1312G>T OR 2.21 (95% CI 1.06 to 4.63, p=0.030) for European men. No evidence of association with ovarian cancer was found for any of these variants.

CONCLUSIONS

This report adds to accumulating evidence that at least some variants in these genes are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer that is clinically important.

Assessing the role of insulin-like growth factors and binding proteins in prostate cancer using Mendelian randomization: Genetic variants as instruments for circulating levels

Circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and their binding proteins (IGFBPs) are associated with prostate cancer. Using genetic variants as instruments for IGF peptides, we investigated whether these associations are likely to be causal. We identified from the literature 56 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the IGF axis previously associated with biomarker levels (8 from a genome-wide association study [GWAS] and 48 in reported candidate genes). In ∼700 men without prostate cancer and two replication cohorts (N ∼ 900 and ∼9,000), we examined the properties of these SNPS as instrumental variables (IVs) for IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3. Those confirmed as strong IVs were tested for association with prostate cancer risk, low (< 7) vs. high (≥ 7) Gleason grade, localised vs. advanced stage, and mortality, in 22,936 controls and 22,992 cases. IV analysis was used in an attempt to estimate the causal effect of circulating IGF peptides on prostate cancer. Published SNPs in the IGFBP1/IGFBP3 gene region, particularly rs11977526, were strong instruments for IGF-II and IGFBP-3, less so for IGF-I. Rs11977526 was associated with high (vs. low) Gleason grade (OR per IGF-II/IGFBP-3 level-raising allele 1.05; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.10). Using rs11977526 as an IV we estimated the causal effect of a one SD increase in IGF-II (∼265 ng/mL) on risk of high vs. low grade disease as 1.14 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.31). Because of the potential for pleiotropy of the genetic instruments, these findings can only causally implicate the IGF pathway in general, not any one specific biomarker.

Genome-Wide Meta-Analyses of Breast, Ovarian, and Prostate Cancer Association Studies Identify Multiple New Susceptibility Loci Shared by at Least Two Cancer Types

Breast, ovarian, and prostate cancers are hormone-related and may have a shared genetic basis, but this has not been investigated systematically by genome-wide association (GWA) studies. Meta-analyses combining the largest GWA meta-analysis data sets for these cancers totaling 112,349 cases and 116,421 controls of European ancestry, all together and in pairs, identified at P < 10(-8) seven new cross-cancer loci: three associated with susceptibility to all three cancers (rs17041869/2q13/BCL2L11; rs7937840/11q12/INCENP; rs1469713/19p13/GATAD2A), two breast and ovarian cancer risk loci (rs200182588/9q31/SMC2; rs8037137/15q26/RCCD1), and two breast and prostate cancer risk loci (rs5013329/1p34/NSUN4; rs9375701/6q23/L3MBTL3). Index variants in five additional regions previously associated with only one cancer also showed clear association with a second cancer type. Cell-type-specific expression quantitative trait locus and enhancer-gene interaction annotations suggested target genes with potential cross-cancer roles at the new loci. Pathway analysis revealed significant enrichment of death receptor signaling genes near loci with P < 10(-5) in the three-cancer meta-analysis.

SIGNIFICANCE

We demonstrate that combining large-scale GWA meta-analysis findings across cancer types can identify completely new risk loci common to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancers. We show that the identification of such cross-cancer risk loci has the potential to shed new light on the shared biology underlying these hormone-related cancers. Cancer Discov; 6(9); 1052-67. ©2016 AACR.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 932.

Polyunsaturated fatty acids and prostate cancer risk: a Mendelian randomisation analysis from the PRACTICAL consortium

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer is a common cancer worldwide with no established modifiable lifestyle factors to guide prevention. The associations between polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and prostate cancer risk have been inconsistent. Using Mendelian randomisation, we evaluated associations between PUFAs and prostate cancer risk.

METHODS

We used individual-level data from a consortium of 22 721 cases and 23 034 controls of European ancestry. Externally-weighted PUFA-specific polygenic risk scores (wPRSs), with explanatory variation ranging from 0.65 to 33.07%, were constructed and used to evaluate associations with prostate cancer risk per one standard deviation (s.d.) increase in genetically-predicted plasma PUFA levels using multivariable-adjusted unconditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

No overall association was observed between the genetically-predicted PUFAs evaluated in this study and prostate cancer risk. However, risk reductions were observed for short-chain PUFAs, linoleic (ORLA=0.95, 95%CI=0.92, 0.98) and α-linolenic acids (ORALA=0.96, 95%CI=0.93, 0.98), among men <62 years; whereas increased risk was found among men ⩾62 years for LA (ORLA=1.04, 95%CI=1.01, 1.07). For long-chain PUFAs (i.e., arachidonic, eicosapentaenoic, and docosapentaenoic acids), increased risks were observed among men <62 years (ORAA=1.05, 95%CI=1.02, 1.08; OREPA=1.04, 95%CI=1.01, 1.06; ORDPA=1.05, 95%CI=1.02, 1.08).

CONCLUSION

Results from this study suggest that circulating ω-3 and ω-6 PUFAs may have a different role in the aetiology of early- and late-onset prostate cancer.

Blood lipids and prostate cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis

Genetic risk scores were used as unconfounded instruments for specific lipid traits (Mendelian randomization) to assess whether circulating lipids causally influence prostate cancer risk. Data from 22,249 prostate cancer cases and 22,133 controls from 22 studies within the international PRACTICAL consortium were analyzed. Allele scores based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously reported to be uniquely associated with each of low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and triglyceride (TG) levels, were first validated in an independent dataset, and then entered into logistic regression models to estimate the presence (and direction) of any causal effect of each lipid trait on prostate cancer risk. There was weak evidence for an association between the LDL genetic score and cancer grade: the odds ratio (OR) per genetically instrumented standard deviation (SD) in LDL, comparing high- (≥7 Gleason score) versus low-grade (<7 Gleason score) cancers was 1.50 (95% CI: 0.92, 2.46; P = 0.11). A genetically instrumented SD increase in TGs was weakly associated with stage: the OR for advanced versus localized cancer per unit increase in genetic risk score was 1.68 (95% CI: 0.95, 3.00; P = 0.08). The rs12916-T variant in 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGCR) was inversely associated with prostate cancer (OR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.00; P = 0.03). In conclusion, circulating lipids, instrumented by our genetic risk scores, did not appear to alter prostate cancer risk. We found weak evidence that higher LDL and TG levels increase aggressive prostate cancer risk, and that a variant in HMGCR (that mimics the LDL lowering effect of statin drugs) reduces risk. However, inferences are limited by sample size and evidence of pleiotropy.

A genetic study and meta-analysis of the genetic predisposition of prostate cancer in a Chinese population

Prostate cancer predisposition has been extensively investigated in European populations, but there have been few studies of other ethnic groups. To investigate prostate cancer susceptibility in the under-investigated Chinese population, we performed single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array analysis on a cohort of Chinese cases and controls and then meta-analysis with data from the existing Chinese prostate cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS). Genotyping 211,155 SNPs in 495 cases and 640 controls of Chinese ancestry identified several new suggestive Chinese prostate cancer predisposition loci. However, none of them reached genome-wide significance level either by meta-analysis or replication study. The meta-analysis with the Chinese GWAS data revealed that four 8q24 loci are the main contributors to Chinese prostate cancer risk and the risk alleles from three of them exist at much higher frequencies in Chinese than European populations. We also found that several predisposition loci reported in Western populations have different effect on Chinese men. Therefore, this first extensive single-nucleotide polymorphism study of Chinese prostate cancer in comparison with European population indicates that four loci on 8q24 contribute to a great risk of prostate cancer in a considerable large proportion of Chinese men. Based on those four loci, the top 10% of the population have six- or two-fold prostate cancer risk compared with men of the bottom 10% or median risk respectively, which may facilitate the design of prostate cancer genetic risk screening and prevention in Chinese men. These findings also provide additional insights into the etiology and pathogenesis of prostate cancer.

Gene and pathway level analyses of germline DNA-repair gene variants and prostate cancer susceptibility using the iCOGS-genotyping array

BACKGROUND

Germline mutations within DNA-repair genes are implicated in susceptibility to multiple forms of cancer. For prostate cancer (PrCa), rare mutations in BRCA2 and BRCA1 give rise to moderately elevated risk, whereas two of B100 common, low-penetrance PrCa susceptibility variants identified so far by genome-wide association studies implicate RAD51B and RAD23B.

METHODS

Genotype data from the iCOGS array were imputed to the 1000 genomes phase 3 reference panel for 21 780 PrCa cases and 21 727 controls from the Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL) consortium. We subsequently performed single variant, gene and pathway-level analyses using 81 303 SNPs within 20 Kb of a panel of 179 DNA-repair genes.

RESULTS

Single SNP analyses identified only the previously reported association with RAD51B. Gene-level analyses using the SKAT-C test from the SNP-set (Sequence) Kernel Association Test (SKAT) identified a significant association with PrCa for MSH5. Pathway-level analyses suggested a possible role for the translesion synthesis pathway in PrCa risk and Homologous recombination/Fanconi Anaemia pathway for PrCa aggressiveness, even though after adjustment for multiple testing these did not remain significant.

CONCLUSIONS

MSH5 is a novel candidate gene warranting additional follow-up as a prospective PrCa-risk locus. MSH5 has previously been reported as a pleiotropic susceptibility locus for lung, colorectal and serous ovarian cancers.

Atlas of prostate cancer heritability in European and African-American men pinpoints tissue-specific regulation

Although genome-wide association studies have identified over 100 risk loci that explain ∼33% of familial risk for prostate cancer (PrCa), their functional effects on risk remain largely unknown. Here we use genotype data from 59,089 men of European and African American ancestries combined with cell-type-specific epigenetic data to build a genomic atlas of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) heritability in PrCa. We find significant differences in heritability between variants in prostate-relevant epigenetic marks defined in normal versus tumour tissue as well as between tissue and cell lines. The majority of SNP heritability lies in regions marked by H3k27 acetylation in prostate adenoc7arcinoma cell line (LNCaP) or by DNaseI hypersensitive sites in cancer cell lines. We find a high degree of similarity between European and African American ancestries suggesting a similar genetic architecture from common variation underlying PrCa risk. Our findings showcase the power of integrating functional annotation with genetic data to understand the genetic basis of PrCa.

Pubertal development and prostate cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study in a population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies have observed a positive association between an earlier age at sexual development and prostate cancer, but markers of sexual maturation in boys are imprecise and observational estimates are likely to suffer from a degree of uncontrolled confounding. To obtain causal estimates, we examined the role of pubertal development in prostate cancer using genetic polymorphisms associated with Tanner stage in adolescent boys in a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach.

METHODS

We derived a weighted genetic risk score for pubertal development, combining 13 SNPs associated with male Tanner stage. A higher score indicated a later puberty onset. We examined the association of this score with prostate cancer risk, stage and grade in the UK-based ProtecT case-control study (n = 2,927), and used the PRACTICAL consortium (n = 43,737) as a replication sample.

RESULTS

In ProtecT, the puberty genetic score was inversely associated with prostate cancer grade (odds ratio (OR) of high- vs. low-grade cancer, per tertile of the score: 0.76; 95 % CI, 0.64-0.89). In an instrumental variable estimation of the causal OR, later physical development in adolescence (equivalent to a difference of one Tanner stage between pubertal boys of the same age) was associated with a 77 % (95 % CI, 43-91 %) reduced odds of high Gleason prostate cancer. In PRACTICAL, the puberty genetic score was associated with prostate cancer stage (OR of advanced vs. localized cancer, per tertile: 0.95; 95 % CI, 0.91-1.00) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio amongst cases, per tertile: 0.94; 95 % CI, 0.90-0.98), but not with disease grade.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age at sexual maturation is causally linked to a reduced risk of later prostate cancer, especially aggressive disease.

Genome-wide association study of prostate cancer-specific survival

BACKGROUND

Unnecessary intervention and overtreatment of indolent disease are common challenges in clinical management of prostate cancer. Improved tools to distinguish lethal from indolent disease are critical.

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide survival analysis of cause-specific death in 24,023 prostate cancer patients (3,513 disease-specific deaths) from the PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. Top findings were assessed for replication in a Norwegian cohort (CONOR).

RESULTS

We observed no significant association between genetic variants and prostate cancer survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Common genetic variants with large impact on prostate cancer survival were not observed in this study.

IMPACT

Future studies should be designed for identification of rare variants with large effect sizes or common variants with small effect sizes.

The effects of height and BMI on prostate cancer incidence and mortality: a Mendelian randomization study in 20,848 cases and 20,214 controls from the PRACTICAL consortium

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies suggest a potential role for obesity and determinants of adult stature in prostate cancer risk and mortality, but the relationships described in the literature are complex. To address uncertainty over the causal nature of previous observational findings, we investigated associations of height- and adiposity-related genetic variants with prostate cancer risk and mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study based on 20,848 prostate cancers and 20,214 controls of European ancestry from 22 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. We constructed genetic risk scores that summed each man's number of height and BMI increasing alleles across multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with each phenotype from published genome-wide association studies.

RESULTS

The genetic risk scores explained 6.31 and 1.46% of the variability in height and BMI, respectively. There was only weak evidence that genetic variants previously associated with increased BMI were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in BMI genetic score 0.98; 95% CI 0.96, 1.00; p = 0.07). Genetic variants associated with increased height were not associated with prostate cancer incidence (OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.23), but were associated with an increase (OR 1.13; 95 % CI 1.08, 1.20) in prostate cancer mortality among low-grade disease (p heterogeneity, low vs. high grade <0.001). Genetic variants associated with increased BMI were associated with an increase (OR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.14) in all-cause mortality among men with low-grade disease (p heterogeneity = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

We found little evidence of a substantial effect of genetically elevated height or BMI on prostate cancer risk, suggesting that previously reported observational associations may reflect common environmental determinants of height or BMI and prostate cancer risk. Genetically elevated height and BMI were associated with increased mortality (prostate cancer-specific and all-cause, respectively) in men with low-grade disease, a potentially informative but novel finding that requires replication.

Implications of polygenic risk-stratified screening for prostate cancer on overdiagnosis

PURPOSE

This study aimed to quantify the probability of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer by polygenic risk.

METHODS

We calculated the polygenic risk score based on 66 known prostate cancer susceptibility variants for 17,012 men aged 50-69 years (9,404 men identified with prostate cancer and 7,608 with no cancer) derived from three UK-based ongoing studies. We derived the probabilities of overdiagnosis by quartiles of polygenic risk considering that the observed prevalence of screen-detected prostate cancer is a combination of underlying incidence, mean sojourn time (MST), test sensitivity, and overdiagnosis.

RESULTS

Polygenic risk quartiles 1 to 4 comprised 9, 18, 25, and 48% of the cases, respectively. For a prostate-specific antigen test sensitivity of 80% and MST of 9 years, 43, 30, 25, and 19% of the prevalent screen-detected cancers in quartiles 1 to 4, respectively, were likely to be overdiagnosed cancers. Overdiagnosis decreased with increasing polygenic risk, with 56% decrease between the lowest and the highest polygenic risk quartiles.

CONCLUSION

Targeting screening to men at higher polygenic risk could reduce the problem of overdiagnosis and lead to a better benefit-to-harm balance in screening for prostate cancer.

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction.

METHODS

We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls.

RESULTS

The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction.

Risk Analysis of Prostate Cancer in PRACTICAL, a Multinational Consortium, Using 25 Known Prostate Cancer Susceptibility Loci

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer.

METHODS

We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS). We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived age-specific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history.

RESULTS

The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4-57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles.

IMPACT

We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs.

A Large-Scale Analysis of Genetic Variants within Putative miRNA Binding Sites in Prostate Cancer

Prostate cancer is the second most common malignancy among men worldwide. Genome-wide association studies have identified 100 risk variants for prostate cancer, which can explain approximately 33% of the familial risk of the disease. We hypothesized that a comprehensive analysis of genetic variations found within the 3' untranslated region of genes predicted to affect miRNA binding (miRSNP) can identify additional prostate cancer risk variants. We investigated the association between 2,169 miRSNPs and prostate cancer risk in a large-scale analysis of 22,301 cases and 22,320 controls of European ancestry from 23 participating studies. Twenty-two miRSNPs were associated (P<2.3×10(-5)) with risk of prostate cancer, 10 of which were within 7 genes previously not mapped by GWAS studies. Further, using miRNA mimics and reporter gene assays, we showed that miR-3162-5p has specific affinity for the KLK3 rs1058205 miRSNP T-allele, whereas miR-370 has greater affinity for the VAMP8 rs1010 miRSNP A-allele, validating their functional role.

SIGNIFICANCE

Findings from this large association study suggest that a focus on miRSNPs, including functional evaluation, can identify candidate risk loci below currently accepted statistical levels of genome-wide significance. Studies of miRNAs and their interactions with SNPs could provide further insights into the mechanisms of prostate cancer risk.

Abstract 5065: Fine-mapping the HOXB region detects common variants tagging a rare coding allele: Evidence for synthetic association in prostate cancer

The HOXB13 gene has been implicated in prostate cancer susceptibility. We performed a high resolution fine-mapping analysis to comprehensively evaluate the association between common genetic variation across the HOXB genetic locus at 17q21 and PrCa risk. This involved genotyping 700 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array (iCOGS) followed by imputation of 3195 SNPs in 20,440 prostate cancer cases and 21,469 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. We identified a cluster of highly correlated common variants situated within or closely upstream of HOXB13 that were significantly associated with prostate cancer risk, described by rs117576373, OR 1.30, P = 2.62×10-14. Additional genotyping, conditional regression and haplotype analyses indicated that the newly identified common variants tag a rare, partially correlated coding variant in the HOXB13 gene, G84E, rs138213197, which has been identified recently as a moderate penetrance prostate cancer susceptibility allele. The potential for GWAS associations detected through common SNPs to be driven by rare causal variants with higher relative risks has long been proposed; however, to our knowledge this is the first experimental evidence for this phenomenon of synthetic association contributing to cancer susceptibility.

Citation Format: Zsofia Kote-Jarai, Edward Saunders, Tokhir Dadaev, Daniel Leongamornlert, Sarah Jugurnauth-Little, Malgorzata Tymrakiewicz, Koveela Govindasami, Fredrik Wiklund, Ali Amin Al Olama, Sara Benlloch, The PRACTICAL Consortium, Douglas Easton, Keneth Muir, Rosalind Eeles. Fine-mapping the HOXB region detects common variants tagging a rare coding allele: Evidence for synthetic association in prostate cancer. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2014 Apr 5-9; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2014;74(19 Suppl):Abstract nr 5065. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2014-5065

Abstract 261: Implications of polygenic risk-stratified screening for prostate cancer on overdiagnosis

Purpose

Personalized screening for prostate cancer with eligibility for screening based on an absolute risk that is dependent on age and polygenic risk-profile would improve the efficiency of the screening program. However, yet there is no evidence from empirical data that such personalized screening strategy would reduce harms of screening, by reducing overdiagnosis and subsequent overtreatment. This study aims at quantifying the probabilities of overdiagnosis by polygenic risk profile.

Methods

We calculated polygenic risk score based on 66 known prostate cancer susceptibility variants for 17,729 men aged 50-69 years (9,404 men identified with prostate cancer and 8,325 with no cancer) derived from three UK-based ongoing studies: Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT), Studies of Epidemiology and Risk Factors in Cancer Heredity (SEARCH), and UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study (UKGPCS). We estimated absolute risk of developing prostate cancer dependent on age and polygenic profile for each man. For each quartile of polygenic risk score distribution among the population, we calculated the observed prevalence of screen-detected prostate cancer within ProtecT and the mean absolute risk for clinically detected cancers within SEARCH and UKGPCS. We derived the probabilities of overdiagnosis by quartiles of polygenic risk considering that the observed prevalence is a combination of underlying incidence, the duration of the preclinical detectable period (sojourn time), test sensitivity, and overdiagnosis.

Results

The polygenic risk score among the population had log-normal distribution with variance of 0.40, with polygenic risk score of -0.63, -0.20, and 0.23 at 25th, 50th and 75th percentile respectively. Quartiles 1 to 4 had 17%, 21%, 25% and 37% of the cases respectively. From the lowest to highest quartile of risk, 42%, 29%, 25% and 19% of the prevalent screen-detected cancers were likely to be overdiagnosed cancers. The proportion of overdiagnosed cases decreased with increasing polygenic risk, with 50% drop in overdiagnosis between the lowest and the highest polygenic risk quartiles.

Conclusion

Targeting screening to men at higher polygenic risk would reduce the problem of overdiagnosis in prostate cancer.

Citation Format: Nora Pashayan, Stephen W. Duffy, David E. Neal, Freddie Hamdy, Jenny Donovan, Richard M. Martin, Patricia Harrington, Sara Benlloch, Ali A. Al Olama, Mitul Shah, Zsofia Kote-Jarai, Douglas F. Easton, Rosalind Eeles, Paul D. Pharoah. Implications of polygenic risk-stratified screening for prostate cancer on overdiagnosis. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2014 Apr 5-9; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2014;74(19 Suppl):Abstract nr 261. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2014-261

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

Genetic variation in prostate-specific antigen-detected prostate cancer and the effect of control selection on genetic association studies

BACKGROUND

Only a minority of the genetic components of prostate cancer risk have been explained. Some observed associations of SNPs with prostate cancer might arise from associations of these SNPs with circulating prostate-specific antigen (PSA) because PSA values are used to select controls.

METHODS

We undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of screen-detected prostate cancer (ProtecT: 1,146 cases and 1,804 controls); meta-analyzed the results with those from the previously published UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study (1,854 cases and 1,437 controls); investigated associations of SNPs with prostate cancer using either "low" (PSA < 0.5 ng/mL) or "high" (PSA ≥ 3 ng/mL, biopsy negative) PSA controls; and investigated associations of SNPs with PSA.

RESULTS

The ProtecT GWAS confirmed previously reported associations of prostate cancer at three loci: 10q11.23, 17q24.3, and 19q13.33. The meta-analysis confirmed associations of prostate cancer with SNPs near four previously identified loci (8q24.21,10q11.23, 17q24.3, and 19q13.33). When comparing prostate cancer cases with low PSA controls, alleles at genetic markers rs1512268, rs445114, rs10788160, rs11199874, rs17632542, rs266849, and rs2735839 were associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer, but the effect-estimates were attenuated to the null when using high PSA controls (Pheterogeneity in effect-estimates < 0.04). We found a novel inverse association of rs9311171-T with circulating PSA.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in effect-estimates for prostate cancer observed when comparing low versus high PSA controls may be explained by associations of these SNPs with PSA.

IMPACT

These findings highlight the need for inferences from genetic studies of prostate cancer risk to carefully consider the influence of control selection criteria.

Assessing standardization of molecular testing for non-small-cell lung cancer: results of a worldwide external quality assessment (EQA) scheme for EGFR mutation testing

BACKGROUND

The external quality assurance (EQA) process aims at establishing laboratory performance levels. Leading European groups in the fields of EQA, Pathology, and Medical and Thoracic Oncology collaborated in a pilot EQA scheme for somatic epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene mutational analysis in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

EQA samples generated from cell lines mimicking clinical samples were provided to participating laboratories, each with a mock clinical case. Participating laboratories performed the analysis using their usual method(s). Anonymous results were assessed and made available to all participants. Two subsequent EQA rounds followed the pilot scheme.

RESULTS

One hundred and seventeen labs from 30 countries registered and 91 returned results. Sanger sequencing and a commercial kit were the main methodologies used. The standard of genotyping was suboptimal, with a significant number of genotyping errors made. Only 72 out of 91 (72%) participants passed the EQA. False-negative and -positive results were the main sources of error. The quality of reports submitted was acceptable; most were clear, concise and easy to read. However, some participants reported the genotyping result in the absence of any interpretation and many obscured the interpretation required for clinical care.

CONCLUSIONS

Even in clinical laboratories, the technical performance of genotyping in EGFR mutation testing for NSCLC can be improved, evident from a high level of diagnostic errors. Robust EQA can contribute to global optimisation of EGFR testing for NSCLC patients.

Fine-mapping the HOXB region detects common variants tagging a rare coding allele: evidence for synthetic association in prostate cancer

The HOXB13 gene has been implicated in prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility. We performed a high resolution fine-mapping analysis to comprehensively evaluate the association between common genetic variation across the HOXB genetic locus at 17q21 and PrCa risk. This involved genotyping 700 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array (iCOGS) followed by imputation of 3195 SNPs in 20,440 PrCa cases and 21,469 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. We identified a cluster of highly correlated common variants situated within or closely upstream of HOXB13 that were significantly associated with PrCa risk, described by rs117576373 (OR 1.30, P = 2.62×10(-14)). Additional genotyping, conditional regression and haplotype analyses indicated that the newly identified common variants tag a rare, partially correlated coding variant in the HOXB13 gene (G84E, rs138213197), which has been identified recently as a moderate penetrance PrCa susceptibility allele. The potential for GWAS associations detected through common SNPs to be driven by rare causal variants with higher relative risks has long been proposed; however, to our knowledge this is the first experimental evidence for this phenomenon of synthetic association contributing to cancer susceptibility.

A genome-wide association scan (GWAS) for mean telomere length within the COGS project: identified loci show little association with hormone-related cancer risk

Mean telomere length (TL) in blood cells is heritable and has been reported to be associated with risks of several diseases, including cancer. We conducted a meta-analysis of three GWAS for TL (total n=2240) and selected 1629 variants for replication via the "iCOGS" custom genotyping array. All ∼200 000 iCOGS variants were analysed with TL, and those displaying associations in healthy controls (n = 15 065) were further tested in breast cancer cases (n = 11 024). We found a novel TL association (Ptrend < 4 × 10(-10)) at 3p14.4 close to PXK and evidence (Ptrend < 7 × 10(-7)) for TL loci at 6p22.1 (ZNF311) and 20q11.2 (BCL2L1). We additionally confirmed (Ptrend < 5 × 10(-14)) the previously reported loci at 3q26.2 (TERC), 5p15.3 (TERT) and 10q24.3 (OBFC1) and found supportive evidence (Ptrend < 5 × 10(-4)) for the published loci at 2p16.2 (ACYP2), 4q32.2 (NAF1) and 20q13.3 (RTEL1). SNPs tagging these loci explain TL differences of up to 731 bp (corresponding to 18% of total TL in healthy individuals), however, they display little direct evidence for association with breast, ovarian or prostate cancer risks.

Fine-mapping identifies multiple prostate cancer risk loci at 5p15, one of which associates with TERT expression

Associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 5p15 and multiple cancer types have been reported. We have previously shown evidence for a strong association between prostate cancer (PrCa) risk and rs2242652 at 5p15, intronic in the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene that encodes TERT. To comprehensively evaluate the association between genetic variation across this region and PrCa, we performed a fine-mapping analysis by genotyping 134 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array or Sequenom MassArray iPlex, followed by imputation of 1094 SNPs in 22 301 PrCa cases and 22 320 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. Multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis identified four signals in the promoter or intronic regions of TERT that independently associated with PrCa risk. Gene expression analysis of normal prostate tissue showed evidence that SNPs within one of these regions also associated with TERT expression, providing a potential mechanism for predisposition to disease.

Abstract 2546: Fine-mapping identifies multiple prostate cancer risk loci at 5p15, one of which associates with TERT expression

We have previously reported an association between prostate cancer (PrCa) risk and rs2242652 on 5p15. rs2242652 lies in intron 4 of TERT, which encodes telomerase reverse transcriptase, the catalytic subunit of the telomerase ribonucleoprotein complex. Telomerase catalyzes the de novo addition of telomere repeat sequences on to chromosome ends and thereby counterbalances telomere-dependent replicative senescence. Associations between SNPs in the TERT region and multiple cancer types have been reported; however no correlation has been observed thus far between the cancer-associated SNPs in TERT and gene expression or telomere length. To comprehensively evaluate the association between genetic variation across this region and PrCa we performed a fine-mapping analysis by direct genotyping using either a custom Illumina iSelect array (114 SNPs on iCOGS) or Sequenom MassArray iPlex (25 SNPs) followed by imputation of 1,094 SNPs in 22,301 PrCa cases and 22,320 controls in the PRACTICAL consortium. To determine independently associated variants in this region, we performed multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis; SNPs were included in the model if they were significant at P&lt;10−4 after adjustment for other SNPs. Regression models identified multiple independent associations, reflecting the complexity of this region. These SNPs fall into four regions consisting of clusters of highly or moderately correlated variants, and there is only weak LD between SNPs in different regions. To investigate whether SNPs in any of these regions were associated with TERT gene expression, we performed qPCR assays on RNA from benign prostate tissue samples using the Fluidigm Biomark™ HD system. We found evidence that the risk reducing alleles of several variants in region one associated with elevated TERT expression, providing a plausible mechanism for the differential effect of SNPs on PrCa risk. Deep re-sequencing of these loci may help to further refine this region and facilitate selection of prospective causal variants for functional validation studies.

Citation Format: Zsofia Kote-Jarai, Edward Saunders, Daniel Leongamornlert, Malgorzata Tymrakiewicz, Tokhir Dadaev, Sarah Jugurnauth, Sara Benlloch, Ali Amin Al Olama, Helen Ross-Adams, David Neal, The UKGPCS Collaborators and The PRACTICAL Consortium, Douglas Easton, Rosalind Eeles. Fine-mapping identifies multiple prostate cancer risk loci at 5p15, one of which associates with TERT expression. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 104th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2013 Apr 6-10; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2013;73(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 2546. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2013-2546

Identification of 23 new prostate cancer susceptibility loci using the iCOGS custom genotyping array

Prostate cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in males in developed countries. To identify common prostate cancer susceptibility alleles, we genotyped 211,155 SNPs on a custom Illumina array (iCOGS) in blood DNA from 25,074 prostate cancer cases and 24,272 controls from the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Twenty-three new prostate cancer susceptibility loci were identified at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)). More than 70 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, explaining ∼30% of the familial risk for this disease, have now been identified. On the basis of combined risks conferred by the new and previously known risk loci, the top 1% of the risk distribution has a 4.7-fold higher risk than the average of the population being profiled. These results will facilitate population risk stratification for clinical studies.

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to identify prostate cancer susceptibility loci associated with aggressive and non-aggressive disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common genetic variants associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (PrCa), but these explain less than one-third of the heritability. To identify further susceptibility alleles, we conducted a meta-analysis of four GWAS including 5953 cases of aggressive PrCa and 11 463 controls (men without PrCa). We computed association tests for approximately 2.6 million SNPs and followed up the most significant SNPs by genotyping 49 121 samples in 29 studies through the international PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. We not only confirmed the association of a PrCa susceptibility locus, rs11672691 on chromosome 19, but also showed an association with aggressive PrCa [odds ratio = 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.21), P = 1.4 × 10(-8)]. This report describes a genetic variant which is associated with aggressive PrCa, which is a type of PrCa associated with a poorer prognosis.

Evaluating genetic risk for prostate cancer among Japanese and Latinos

BACKGROUND

There have been few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of prostate cancer among diverse populations. To search for novel prostate cancer risk variants, we conducted GWAS of prostate cancer in Japanese and Latinos. In addition, we tested prostate cancer risk variants and developed genetic risk models of prostate cancer for Japanese and Latinos.

METHODS

Our first-stage GWAS of prostate cancer included Japanese (cases/controls = 1,033/1,042) and Latino (cases/controls = 1,043/1,057) from the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC). Significant associations from stage I (P < 1.0 × 10(-4)) were examined in silico in GWAS of prostate cancer (stage II) in Japanese (cases/controls = 1,583/3,386) and Europeans (cases/controls = 1,854/1,894).

RESULTS

No novel stage I single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) outside of known risk regions reached genome-wide significance. For Japanese, in stage I, the most notable putative novel association was seen with 10 SNPs (P ≤ 8.0 × 10(-6)) at chromosome 2q33; however, this was not replicated in stage II. For Latinos, the most significant association was observed with rs17023900 at the known 3p12 risk locus (stage I: OR = 1.45; P = 7.01 × 10(-5) and stage II: OR = 1.58; P = 3.05 × 10(-7)). The majority of the established risk variants for prostate cancer, 79% and 88%, were positively associated with prostate cancer in Japanese and Latinos (stage I), respectively. The cumulative effects of these variants significantly influence prostate cancer risk (OR per allele = 1.10; P = 2.71 × 10(-25) and OR = 1.07; P = 1.02 × 10(-16) for Japanese and Latinos, respectively).

CONCLUSION AND IMPACT

Our GWAS of prostate cancer did not identify novel genome-wide significant variants. However, our findings show that established risk variants for prostate cancer significantly contribute to risk among Japanese and Latinos.