Outcomes of early vs late treatment initiation in solid organ transplantation from hepatitis C virus nucleic acid test-positive donors to hepatitis C virus-uninfected recipients: Results from the HCV-TARGET study

Curative hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy has increased transplantation from HCV-infected nucleic acid test-positive donors to HCV-uninfected recipients (D+/R-). We evaluated outcomes of early and late HCV treatment among D+/R- nonliver organ transplants. Patients received HCV regimens per local standard (n = 10 sites). Outcomes were compared between early and late treatments. Early treatment regimens (ETR) (n = 56) were initiated pretransplantation to day 7 posttransplant. Late treatment regimens (LTRs) (n = 102) began median 31 (range, 8-114) days posttransplant. There were 79 kidney, 50 lung, 23 heart, and 6 mixed transplants, similar between groups. HCV RNA was quantifiable in 98% of LTR versus 44.6% of ETR recipients (P < .001). Mean (range) days on treatment were 28 (7-93) ETR and 81 (51-111) LTR (P < .0001). There were no virological failures with ETR, but relapse (n = 3) and nonresponse (n = 2) in LTR (P = .16), including fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis postrelapse (n = 1). Sustained virological response was 100% (95% confidence interval, 93.4-100.0) in ETR (n = 54) and 94.9% (95% confidence interval, 88.5-98.3) in LTR (n = 98). Acute rejection occurred in 11 (19.6%) ETR and 25 (24.5%) LTR. In total, 11 HCV-unrelated deaths occurred: 8 ETR and 3 LTR. Organ transplantation from HCV-infected nucleic acid test-positive donors to HCV-uninfected recipients was safe. ETR led to fewer virological failures with shorter treatment duration, supporting recommendations to initiate treatment promptly posttransplant.

DAA therapy and long-term hepatic function in advanced/decompensated cirrhosis: Real-world experience from HCV-TARGET cohort

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is used in patients with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis with the expectation of improving hepatic function. However, little is known about the long-term hepatic benefit of successful antiviral treatment.

METHODS

Patients with advanced/decompensated cirrhosis (model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] ≥10), in whom NS5A-containing DAA therapy was initiated prior to September 2018, were included (from the HCV-TARGET cohort). Treatment outcomes and the impact of treatment on short-term and long-term hepatic function were examined.

RESULTS

A total of 642 patients were analyzed. The mean age was 60 years, 68% were male. The median baseline MELD was 12 (range 10-39) and 64% had prior decompensation. Among patients with available virologic outcomes, 90.5% achieved a sustained virologic response at 12 weeks (SVR12). Eighty (24%) patients achieved a clinically significant decrease in MELD by ≥3 points during short-term follow-up (9-26 weeks after the end of treatment). However, in long-term follow-up (median of 4 years after treatment), mean changes in MELD (-0.30 points), total bilirubin (+0.23 mg/dl) and albumin (+0.36 g/dl) were marginal. Fifty-one patients died and 22 underwent liver transplant. In long-term follow-up, a clinically meaningful decrease in MELD of ≥3 occurred in 29% and a final MELD score of <10 was achieved in 25%.

CONCLUSION

In a large real-world experience of patients with advanced/decompensated HCV-related cirrhosis treated with DAAs, there were only marginal improvements in MELD, total bilirubin, or albumin at long-term follow-up (after achieving SVR12). These patients may remain at high risk of decompensation and must continue to be closely monitored. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT01474811.

LAY SUMMARY

Hepatitis C virus infection can now be cured with medications, even in patients who have advanced scarring of the liver (cirrhosis). In this study, we evaluated whether liver function improves or deteriorates in the long-term, following successful treatment of hepatitis C in patients with cirrhosis. We found that overall liver function was relatively stable with only 29% of patients achieving a clinically meaningful improvement in liver function, and we therefore believe that these patients require ongoing monitoring.

Treatment Status of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Does Not Influence Rates of Sustained Virologic Response: An HCV-TARGET Analysis

Recent studies have suggested a negative impact of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on sustained virologic response (SVR) to hepatitis C virus (HCV) direct acting antivirals (DAAs). We compared the effectiveness of DAAs in patients with cirrhosis, with and without HCC, and in those with HCC partially treated or untreated (PT/UT‐HCC) versus completely treated (CT‐HCC). HCC status was based on imaging 6 months before or 2 months after start of DAA therapy. Absence and presence of enhancing lesions after HCC treatment defined CT‐HCC and PT/UT‐HCC, respectively. Using minimally adjusted logistic regression, the association between the presence of HCC and SVR rates was estimated. Among the 1,457 patients with cirrhosis from HCV‐TARGET with complete virologic data (per‐protocol population) who did not undergo liver transplantation during treatment and followup, 1,300 were without HCC, 91 with CT‐HCC, and 66 with PT/UT‐HCC. Most patients were genotype 1 (81%) and treatment‐experienced (56%), 41% had history of prior decompensation, and the median pretreatment Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease was 9 (range 6‐39). The SVR rates were 91% for patients without HCC, 84% for CT‐HCC, and 80% for PT/UT‐HCC. The presence of HCC (versus not having HCC) was associated with significantly lower odds of achieving SVR (odds ratio [OR] = 0.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.33‐0.81; P = 0.003). However, among those with HCC, HCC treatment status (PT/UT‐HCC versus CT‐HCC) did not show association with SVR (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.35‐1.79, P = 0.569). Conclusions: The presence of HCC reduces the likelihood of SVR by 50%, but with no evident difference in those with completely treated HCC versus partially treated/untreated HCC.

Safety and efficacy of current direct-acting antiviral regimens in kidney and liver transplant recipients with hepatitis C: Results from the HCV-TARGET study

Data outside of clinical trials with direct-acting antiviral regimens with or without ribavirin as treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus in solid organ transplant recipients are limited. Liver transplant (LT), kidney transplant (KT), and dual liver kidney (DLK) transplant recipients from the Hepatitis C Therapeutic Registry and Research Network database, a multicenter, longitudinal clinical care treatment cohort, treated with direct-acting antiviral regimens between January 1, 2014, and February 15, 2016, were included to assess safety and efficacy. Included were 443 posttransplant patients (KT = 60, LT = 347, DLK = 36); 42% had cirrhosis, and 54% had failed prior antiviral therapy. Most had genotype (GT) 1 (87% with 52% GT1a, 27% GT1b, and 8% GT1 no subtype) and were treated with sofosbuvir (SOF)/ledipasvir ± ribavirin (85%) followed by SOF + daclatasvir ± ribavirin (9%) and ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir + dasabuvir ± ribavirin (6%). Rates of sustained virologic response (SVR) at 12 weeks were available on 412 patients, and 395 patients (95.9%) achieved SVR at 12 weeks: 96.6%, 94.5%, and 90.9% among LT, KT, and DLK transplant recipients, respectively. Ribavirin did not influence SVR rates and was more often used in those with higher BMI, higher estimated glomerular filtration rate and lower creatinine. Female gender, baseline albumin ≥3.5 g/dL, baseline total bilirubin ≤1.2 mg/dL, absence of cirrhosis, and hepatic decompensation predicted SVR at 12 weeks. Six episodes of acute rejection (n = 2 KT, 4 LT) occurred, during hepatitis C virus treatment in 4 and after cessation of treatment in 2.

CONCLUSION

In a large prospective observational cohort study, direct-acting antiviral therapy with SOF/ledipasvir, ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir + dasabuvir, and SOF plus daclatasvir was efficacious and safe in LT, KT, and DLK transplant recipients; ribavirin did not influence SVR, and graft rejection was rare. (Hepatology 2017;66:1090-1101).

Effectiveness and safety of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for the treatment of HCV genotype 2 infection: results of the real-world, clinical practice HCV-TARGET study

OBJECTIVE

Due to a high efficacy in clinical trials, sofosbuvir (SOF) and ribavirin (RBV) for 12 or 16 weeks is recommended for treatment of patients with HCV genotype (GT) 2 infection. We investigated safety and effectiveness of these regimens for GT2 in HCV-TARGET participants.

DESIGN

HCV-TARGET, an international, prospective observational study evaluates clinical practice data on novel antiviral therapies at 44 academic and 17 community medical centres in North America and Europe. Clinical data were centrally abstracted from medical records. Selection of treatment regimen and duration was the investigator's choice. The primary efficacy outcome was sustained virological response 12 weeks after therapy (SVR12).

RESULTS

Between December 2013 and April 2015, 321 patients completed 12 weeks (n=283) or 16 weeks (n=38) of treatment with SOF and RBV. Prior treatment experience and cirrhosis was more frequent among patients in the 16-week regimen compared with 12 weeks (52.6% vs 27.6% and 63.2% vs 21.9%, respectively). Overall, SVR12 was 88.2%. The SVR12 in patients without cirrhosis was 91.0% and 92.9% for 12 or 16 weeks of therapy, respectively. In patients with cirrhosis treated for 12 or 16 weeks, SVR12 was 79.0% and 83%. In the multivariate analysis, liver cirrhosis, lower serum albumin and RBV dose at baseline were significantly associated with SVR12. Common adverse events (AEs) included fatigue, anaemia, nausea, headache, insomnia, rash and flu-like symptoms. Discontinuation due to AEs occurred in 2.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

In this clinical practice setting, SOF and RBV was safe and effective for treatment of patients with HCV GT2 infection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01474811.

PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM rare variants and cancer risk: data from COGS

BACKGROUND

The rarity of mutations in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM make it difficult to estimate precisely associated cancer risks. Population-based family studies have provided evidence that at least some of these mutations are associated with breast cancer risk as high as those associated with rare BRCA2 mutations. We aimed to estimate the relative risks associated with specific rare variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM via a multicentre case-control study.

METHODS

We genotyped 10 rare mutations using the custom iCOGS array: PALB2 c.1592delT, c.2816T>G and c.3113G>A, CHEK2 c.349A>G, c.538C>T, c.715G>A, c.1036C>T, c.1312G>T, and c.1343T>G and ATM c.7271T>G. We assessed associations with breast cancer risk (42 671 cases and 42 164 controls), as well as prostate (22 301 cases and 22 320 controls) and ovarian (14 542 cases and 23 491 controls) cancer risk, for each variant.

RESULTS

For European women, strong evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for PALB2 c.1592delT OR 3.44 (95% CI 1.39 to 8.52, p=7.1×10-5), PALB2 c.3113G>A OR 4.21 (95% CI 1.84 to 9.60, p=6.9×10-8) and ATM c.7271T>G OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.42 to 85.7, p=0.0012). We also found evidence of association with breast cancer risk for three variants in CHEK2, c.349A>G OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.29 to 3.95), c.1036C>T OR 5.06 (95% CI 1.09 to 23.5) and c.538C>T OR 1.33 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.67) (p≤0.017). Evidence for prostate cancer risk was observed for CHEK2 c.1343T>G OR 3.03 (95% CI 1.53 to 6.03, p=0.0006) for African men and CHEK2 c.1312G>T OR 2.21 (95% CI 1.06 to 4.63, p=0.030) for European men. No evidence of association with ovarian cancer was found for any of these variants.

CONCLUSIONS

This report adds to accumulating evidence that at least some variants in these genes are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer that is clinically important.

Effectiveness of Ledipasvir-Sofosbuvir Combination in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Factors Associated With Sustained Virologic Response

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The combination of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir has been approved for treatment of genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, including an 8-week regimen for treatment-naïve patients without cirrhosis and a baseline level of HCV RNA <6 million IU/mL. We analyzed data from a multicenter, prospective, observational study to determine real-world sustained virologic responses 12 weeks after treatment (SVR12) with regimens containing ledipasvir and sofosbuvir and identify factors associated with treatment failure.

METHODS

We collected data from 2099 participants in the HCV-TARGET study with complete virologic data (per-protocol population). We analyzed data from 1788 patients receiving ledipasvir-sofosbuvir (282 for 8 weeks, 910 for 12 weeks, 510 for 24 weeks, and 86 for a different duration) and 311 receiving ledipasvir-sofosbuvir plus ribavirin (212 for 12 weeks and 81 for 24 weeks, 18 for other duration) to estimate SVR12 (with 95% confidence interval [CI]), and logistic regression methods to identify factors that predicted an SVR12.

RESULTS

The overall study population was 25% black, 66% with HCV genotype 1A infection, 41% with cirrhosis, 50% treatment-experienced, and 30% receiving proton pump inhibitors at start of treatment. In the per-protocol population, SVR12s were achieved by 96% of patients receiving ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for 8 weeks (95% CI, 93%-98%), 97% receiving the drugs for 12 weeks (95% CI, 96%-98%), and 95% receiving the drugs for 24 weeks (95% CI, 93%-97%). Among patients also receiving ribavirin, SVR12 was achieved by 97% of the patients receiving the drugs for 12 weeks (95% CI, 94%-99%) and 95% receiving the drugs for 24 weeks (95% CI, 88%-99%). Of the 586 patients who qualified for 8 weeks of treatment, only 255 (44%) received the drugs for 8 weeks. The rate of SVR12 among those who qualified for and received 8 weeks of therapy was similar in those who qualified for 8 weeks but received 12 weeks therapy (96%; 95% CI, 92%-99% vs 98%; 95% CI, 95%-99%). Factors that predicted SVR12 were higher albumin (≥3.5 g/dL), lower total bilirubin (≤1.2 g/dL), absence of cirrhosis, and absence of proton pump inhibitor use.

CONCLUSIONS

Regimens containing ledipasvir and sofosbuvir are highly effective for a broad spectrum of patients with HCV genotype 1 infection treated in different clinical practice settings. Expanded use of 8-week treatment regimens for eligible patients is supported by these real-world results. Modification of proton pump inhibitor use may increase rates of SVR. ClinicalTrials.gov no. NCT01474811.

Effectiveness and Safety of Sofosbuvir-Based Regimens for Chronic HCV Genotype 3 Infection: Results of the HCV-TARGET Study

BACKGROUND

Sofosbuvir (SOF) is active against all hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes, and SOF-based therapies lead to high rates of sustained virologic response (SVR). However, genotype 3 (GT3) HCV remains a challenge with lower SVR rates reported, particularly in patients with cirrhosis. This study reports the effectiveness and safety of SOF-based therapy in patients with GT3 HCV treated in clinical practice.

METHODS

Hepatitis C Virus Therapeutic Registry and Research Network is an international, prospective observational study evaluating patients treated in usual clinical practice. Patients with GT3 HCV were analyzed to assess predictors of treatment response and adverse events using descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Treatment outcomes were available for 197 patients treated with SOF and ribavirin (RBV), with or without peginterferon, including 54% with cirrhosis and 49% who failed prior therapy. Of 178 patients treated with SOF/RBV, 60% achieved SVR at 12 weeks (SVR12), compared with 84% of 19 patients treated with SOF/peginterferon/RBV. For patients treated with SOF/RBV, the SVR12 rate was 58% in treatment-naive patients with cirrhosis, and 42% in those with cirrhosis who failed prior therapy. In noncirrhotic patients, SVR12 rates were 89% in treatment-naive and 88% in treatment-experienced patients. After controlling for age and sex, absence of cirrhosis (odds ratio [OR], 6.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.78-14.74), albumin levels ≥3.2 g/dL (OR, 12.48; 95% CI, 3.86-40.33), and platelet count >10(5) cells/µL (OR, 7.44; 95% CI, 3.51-15.78) were associated with greater odds of SVR12 CONCLUSIONS:  SVR rates were acceptable in patients with GT3 HCV without cirrhosis; however, in those with cirrhosis, treatment with SOF/RBV was suboptimal, highlighting the need for new therapies for this population.

The Association Between Body Mass Index and Presenting Symptoms in African American Women with Ovarian Cancer

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer, the most lethal gynecologic malignancy, typically comes to clinical attention due to nonspecific gastrointestinal or pelvic symptoms. African Americans with ovarian cancer have a greater mortality burden than whites and are also much more likely to be obese. The objective of this study is to explore whether the presentation and duration of symptoms differ by body mass index (BMI) in African Americans with ovarian cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a case-only analysis using data from a multicenter population-based study of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer in African American women. Information on risk factors and symptoms leading to diagnosis was obtained in a telephone interview. Frequency and duration of symptoms by BMI categories were compared using logistic regression and linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 326 women, ∼60% was obese (BMI ≥30), with 30.8% having a BMI ≥35 kg/m(2). Ninety-four percent of women reported ≥1 symptom during the year before diagnosis. We observed differences in frequency of symptoms by BMI categories, with most being reported more frequently by the heaviest women. The reported duration of symptoms was longer in women with higher BMI, with statistically significant trend tests for 6 of the 10 symptoms evaluated.

CONCLUSION

BMI appears to impact ovarian cancer symptomatology. Women with higher BMI report having symptoms for a longer period of time before diagnosis of ovarian cancer. Healthcare providers should be vigilant and consider ovarian cancer in the differential diagnosis for obese women presenting with abdominal and pelvic symptoms.

Virological outcomes and treatment algorithms utilisation in observational study of patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with boceprevir or telaprevir

BACKGROUND

HCV-TARGET is a longitudinal observational study of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients treated with direct-acting anti-viral agents (DAAs) in a US consortium of 90 academic and community medical centres.

AIM

To assess utilisation of response-guided therapy (RGT) and sustained virological response (SVR) of a large cohort of patients.

METHODS

Patients received peginterferon (PEG-IFN), ribavirin and either telaprevir or boceprevir. Demographical, clinical and virological data were collected during treatment and follow-up. RGT and treatment futility stopping rules was assessed at key time points.

RESULTS

Of 2084 patients, 38% had cirrhosis and 56% had received prior treatment for HCV. SVR rates were 31% (95% CI: 24-40) and 50% (95% CI: 44-56) in boceprevir patients with and without cirrhosis, respectively. SVR rates were 46% (95% CI: 42-50) and 60% (95% CI: 57-64) in telaprevir patients with and without cirrhosis, respectively. Early clearance of virus, IL28B genotype, platelet counts and diabetes were identified as predictors of SVR among boceprevir patients, while early clearance of virus, IL28B, cirrhosis, HCV subtype, age, haemoglobin, bilirubin and albumin levels were identified as predictors of SVR for telaprevir patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In academic and community centres, triple therapy including boceprevir or telaprevir led to SVR rates somewhat lower than those noted in large phase 3 clinical trials. Response rates were consistently higher among patients without cirrhosis compared to those with cirrhosis regardless of DAA used and prior treatment response. Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT01474811.

A multi-center population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer in African-American women: the African American Cancer Epidemiology Study (AACES)

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer (OVCA) is the leading cause of death from gynecological cancer, with poorer survival for African American (AA) women compared to whites. However, little is known about risk factors for OVCA in AA. To study the epidemiology of OVCA in this population, we started a collaborative effort in 10 sites in the US. Here we describe the study and highlight the challenges of conducting a study of a lethal disease in a minority population.

METHODS

The African American Cancer Epidemiology Study (AACES) is an ongoing, population-based case-control study of OVCA in AA in 10 geographic locations, aiming to recruit 850 women with invasive epithelial OVCA and 850 controls age- and geographically-matched to cases. Rapid case ascertainment and random-digit-dialing systems are in place to ascertain cases and controls, respectively. A telephone survey focuses on risk factors as well as factors of particular relevance for AAs. Food-frequency questionnaires, follow-up surveys, biospecimens and medical records are also obtained.

RESULTS

Current accrual of 403 AA OVCA cases and 639 controls exceeds that of any existing study to date. We observed a high proportion (15%) of deceased non-responders among the cases that in part is explained by advanced stage at diagnosis. A logistic regression model did not support that socio-economic status was a factor in advanced stage at diagnosis. Most risk factor associations were in the expected direction and magnitude. High BMI was associated with ovarian cancer risk, with multivariable adjusted ORs and 95% CIs of 1.50 (0.99-2.27) for obese and 1.27 (0.85- 1.91) for morbidly obese women compared to normal/underweight women.

CONCLUSIONS

AACES targets a rare tumor in AAs and addresses issues most relevant to this population. The importance of the study is accentuated by the high proportion of OVCA cases ascertained as deceased. Our analyses indicated that obesity, highly prevalent in this population (>60% of the cases), was associated with increased OVCA risk. While these findings need to be replicated, they suggest the potential for an effective intervention on the risk in AAs. Upon completion of enrollment, AACES will be the largest epidemiologic study of OVCA in AA women.

Molecular signatures of epithelial ovarian cancer: analysis of associations with tumor characteristics and epidemiologic risk factors

BACKGROUND

Six gene expression subtypes of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer were recently defined using microarrays by Tothill and colleagues. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project subsequently replicated these subtypes and identified a signature predictive of survival in high-grade serous (HGS) cancers. We previously validated these signatures for use in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues. The aim of the present study was to determine whether these signatures are associated with specific ovarian cancer risk factors, which would add to the evidence that they reflect the heterogeneous etiology of this disease.

METHODS

We modeled signature-specific tumor characteristics and epidemiologic risk factor relationships using multiple regression and multivariate response multiple regression models in 193 patients from a case-control study of epithelial ovarian cancer.

RESULTS

We observed associations between the Tothill gene expression subtype signatures and both age at diagnosis (P = 0.0008) and race (P = 0.008). Although most established epidemiologic risk factors were not associated with molecular signatures, there was an association between breast feeding (P = 0.024) and first-degree family history of breast or ovarian cancer (P = 0.034) among the 106 HGS cases. Some of the above associations were validated using gene expression microarray data from the TCGA project. Weak associations were seen with age at menarche and duration of oral contraceptive use and the TCGA survival signature.

CONCLUSIONS

These data support the potential for genomic characterization to elucidate the etiologic heterogeneity of epithelial ovarian cancer.

IMPACT

This study suggests that molecular signatures may augment the ability to define etiologic subtypes of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Molecular signatures of epithelial ovarian cancer: analysis of associations with tumor characteristics and epidemiologic risk factors

BACKGROUND

Six gene expression subtypes of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer were recently defined using microarrays by Tothill and colleagues. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project subsequently replicated these subtypes and identified a signature predictive of survival in high-grade serous (HGS) cancers. We previously validated these signatures for use in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues. The aim of the present study was to determine whether these signatures are associated with specific ovarian cancer risk factors, which would add to the evidence that they reflect the heterogeneous etiology of this disease.

METHODS

We modeled signature-specific tumor characteristics and epidemiologic risk factor relationships using multiple regression and multivariate response multiple regression models in 193 patients from a case-control study of epithelial ovarian cancer.

RESULTS

We observed associations between the Tothill gene expression subtype signatures and both age at diagnosis (P = 0.0008) and race (P = 0.008). Although most established epidemiologic risk factors were not associated with molecular signatures, there was an association between breast feeding (P = 0.024) and first-degree family history of breast or ovarian cancer (P = 0.034) among the 106 HGS cases. Some of the above associations were validated using gene expression microarray data from the TCGA project. Weak associations were seen with age at menarche and duration of oral contraceptive use and the TCGA survival signature.

CONCLUSIONS

These data support the potential for genomic characterization to elucidate the etiologic heterogeneity of epithelial ovarian cancer.

IMPACT

This study suggests that molecular signatures may augment the ability to define etiologic subtypes of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Genital powder use and risk of ovarian cancer: a pooled analysis of 8,525 cases and 9,859 controls

Genital powder use has been associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in some, but not all, epidemiologic investigations, possibly reflecting the carcinogenic effects of talc particles found in most of these products. Whether risk increases with number of genital powder applications and for all histologic types of ovarian cancer also remains uncertain. Therefore, we estimated the association between self-reported genital powder use and epithelial ovarian cancer risk in eight population-based case-control studies. Individual data from each study were collected and harmonized. Lifetime number of genital powder applications was estimated from duration and frequency of use. Pooled ORs were calculated using conditional logistic regression matched on study and age and adjusted for potential confounders. Subtype-specific risks were estimated according to tumor behavior and histology. 8,525 cases and 9,859 controls were included in the analyses. Genital powder use was associated with a modest increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer [OR, 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15-1.33] relative to women who never used powder. Risk was elevated for invasive serous (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.32), endometrioid (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04-1.43), and clear cell (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.01-1.52) tumors, and for borderline serous tumors (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.24-1.72). Among genital powder users, we observed no significant trend (P = 0.17) in risk with increasing number of lifetime applications (assessed in quartiles). We noted no increase in risk among women who only reported nongenital powder use. In summary, genital powder use is a modifiable exposure associated with small-to-moderate increases in risk of most histologic subtypes of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms and risk of ovarian cancer in Caucasian and African American women

OBJECTIVE

Polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene have been shown in some studies to be associated with the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in Caucasian women. There are no published reports among African Americans.

METHODS

Case-control data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study were analyzed using logistic regression to determine the association between seven VDR polymorphisms and EOC in both Caucasians (513 cases, 532 controls) and African Americans (74 cases, 79 controls). In a larger sample of African-Americans (125 cases, 155 controls), we assessed associations between six SNPs in proximity of rs7975232.

RESULTS

African American women who carried at least one minor allele of rs7975232 were at higher risk for invasive EOC controlling for age and admixture with an odds ratio (OR) for association under the log-additive model of 2.08 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.19, 3.63, p=0.010). No association was observed between any of the VDR variants and EOC among Caucasians. A larger sample of African Americans revealed a nearly two-fold increased risk of invasive EOC associated with rs7305032, a SNP in proximity to rs7975232 (R(2)=0.369) with a log-additive OR of 1.87 (95% CI=1.20, 2.93, p=0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report showing VDR variants associated with ovarian cancer risk in African American women. A larger study of African American women is needed to confirm these findings. These results imply that vitamin D exposure is a possible modifiable risk factor of ovarian cancer among African Americans.

What can we learn from the age- and race/ethnicity- specific rates of inflammatory breast carcinoma?

Inflammatory Breast Carcinoma (IBC), the most aggressive type of breast tumor with unique clinicopathological presentation, is hypothesized to have distinct etiology with a socioeconomic status (SES) component. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program data for 2004-2007, we compare incidence rates of IBC to non-inflammatory locally advanced breast cancer (LABC) among racial/ethnic groups with different SES. The analysis includes women 20-84 years of age. To examine evidence for the distinct etiology of IBC, we analyzed age-distribution patterns of IBC and non-inflammatory LABC, using a mathematical carcinogenesis model. Based on the Collaborative Staging Extension codes, 2,942 incident IBC cases (codes 71 and 73) and 5,721 non-inflammatory LABC cases (codes 40-62) were identified during the four-year study period. Age-adjusted rates of IBC among non-Hispanic White and Hispanic women were similar (2.5/100,000 in both groups). Similar rates were also found in non-inflammatory LABC in these two groups (4.8/100,000 and 4.2/100,000, respectively). In African-American women, the IBC (3.91/100,000) and non-inflammatory LABC (8.47/100,000) rates were greater compared with other ethnic/racial sub-groups. However, the ratio of rates of IBC/non-inflammatory LABC was similar among all the racial/ethnic groups, suggesting that African-American women are susceptible to aggressive breast tumors in general but not specifically to IBC. The mathematical model successfully predicted the observed age-specific rates of both examined breast tumors and revealed distinct patterns. IBC rates increased until age 65 and then slightly decreased, whereas non-inflammatory LABC rates steadily increased throughout the entire age interval. The number of critical transition carcinogenesis stages (m-stages) predicted by the model were 6.3 and 8.5 for IBC and non-inflammatory LABC, respectively, supporting different etiologies of these breast tumors.

Cancer Risk and Behavioral Factors, Comorbidities, and Functional Status in the US Elderly Population

About 80% of all cancers are diagnosed in the elderly and up to 75% of cancers are associated with behavioral factors. An approach to estimate the contribution of various measurable factors, including behavior/lifestyle, to cancer risk in the US elderly population is presented. The nationally representative National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) data were used for measuring functional status and behavioral factors in the US elderly population (65+), and Medicare Claims files linked to each person from the NLTCS were used for estimating cancer incidence. The associations (i.e., relative risks) of selected factors with risks of breast, prostate, lung and colon cancers were evaluated and discussed. Behavioral risk factors significantly affected cancer risks in the US elderly. The most influential of potentially preventable risk factors can be detected with this approach using NLTCS-Medicare linked dataset and for further deeper analyses employing other datasets with detailed risk factors description.

Medical cost trajectories and onsets of cancer and noncancer diseases in US elderly population

Time trajectories of medical costs-associated with onset of twelve aging-related cancer and chronic noncancer diseases were analyzed using the National Long-Term Care Survey data linked to Medicare Service Use files. A special procedure for selecting individuals with onset of each disease was developed and used for identification of the date at disease onset. Medical cost trajectories were found to be represented by a parametric model with four easily interpretable parameters reflecting: (i) prediagnosis cost (associated with initial comorbidity), (ii) cost of the disease onset, (iii) population recovery representing reduction of the medical expenses associated with a disease since diagnosis was made, and (iv) acquired comorbidity representing the difference between post- and pre diagnosis medical cost levels. These parameters were evaluated for the entire US population as well as for the subpopulation conditional on age, disability and comorbidity states, and survival (2.5 years after the date of onset). The developed approach results in a family of new forecasting models with covariates.

Recreational physical activity and ovarian cancer risk and survival

PURPOSE

Physical activity may influence ovarian cancer risk and outcomes through effects on ovulation, inflammatory markers, and other processes. We examined associations between self-reported physical activity and ovarian cancer risk and survival in a population-based, case-control study in North Carolina.

METHODS

The analyses involved 638 epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 683 controls recruited between 1999-2008. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess ovarian cancer risk in relation to reported average physical activity at various time periods. Kaplan-Meier analyses and proportional hazards modeling were used to assess associations between physical activity and survival among ovarian cancer cases.

RESULTS

Modestly reduced risks for ovarian cancer were observed in some categories of physical activity, but there were no consistent patterns of greater reductions in risk with higher activity levels. Physical activity before diagnosis was not significantly related to ovarian cancer survival overall, but survival was better for women who reported greater than 2 hours of activity/week as compared to those reporting less than 1 hour/week among women who were non-obese (multivariable Hazard ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval: 0.47-1.00).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data provide weak evidence in support of beneficial effects of physical activity on ovarian cancer risk and survival, but results should be interpreted cautiously because of the lack of a clear dose response relation with higher levels of exercise and the likely misclassification of self-reported activity.

Trade-offs between cancer and other diseases: do they exist and influence longevity?

Relationships between aging, disease risks, and longevity are not yet well understood. For example, joint increases in cancer risk and total survival observed in many human populations and some experimental aging studies may be linked to a trade-off between cancer and aging as well as to the trade-off(s) between cancer and other diseases, and their relative impact is not clear. While the former trade-off (between cancer and aging) received broad attention in aging research, the latter one lacks respective studies, although its understanding is important for developing optimal strategies of increasing both longevity and healthy life span. In this paper, we explore the possibility of trade-offs between risks of cancer and selected major disorders. First, we review current literature suggesting that the trade-offs between cancer and other diseases may exist and be linked to the differential intensity of apoptosis. Then we select relevant disorders for the analysis (acute coronary heart disease [ACHD], stroke, asthma, and Alzheimer disease [AD]) and calculate the risk of cancer among individuals with each of these disorders, and vice versa, using the Framingham Study (5209 individuals) and the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) (38,214 individuals) data. We found a reduction in cancer risk among old (80+) men with stroke and in risk of ACHD among men (50+) with cancer in the Framingham Study. We also found an increase in ACHD and stroke among individuals with cancer, and a reduction in cancer risk among women with AD in the NLTCS. The manifestation of trade-offs between risks of cancer and other diseases thus depended on sex, age, and study population. We discuss factors modulating the potential trade-offs between major disorders in populations, e.g., disease treatments. Further study is needed to clarify possible impact of such trade-offs on longevity.

Trends in survival and recovery from stroke: evidence from the National Long-Term Care Survey/Medicare data

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Improvements in recovery rates may contribute to an increase in healthy life expectancy. It is unclear, however, whether such changes take place because health researchers traditionally deal with changes in incidence and survival from diseases. The purpose of this study was to test for the presence of time trends in the recovery rate from stroke.

METHODS

We compared age patterns of recovery rates from stroke evaluated in 2 subcohorts represented in the National Long-Term Care Survey data linked with the Medicare service use files.

RESULTS

We found a statistically significant increase in recovery rate between 1994 and 1999 for females but not for males.

CONCLUSIONS

Time trends in recovery rate from stroke exist and can be detected from available data. The roles of influential factors and causes of sex difference in recovery improvement deserve further studies.

Ovarian cancer risk factors in African-American and white women

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecologic malignancy in both African-American and white women. Although prevalences of many ovarian cancer risk factors differ markedly between African Americans and whites, there has been little research on how the relative contributions of risk factors may vary between racial/ethnic groups. Using data from a North Carolina case-control study (1999-2008), the authors conducted unconditional logistic regression analyses to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for ovarian cancer risk factors in African-American (143 cases, 189 controls) and white (943 cases, 868 controls) women and to test for interactions by race/ethnicity. They also calculated attributable fractions within each racial/ethnic group for the modifiable factors of pregnancy, oral contraceptive use, tubal ligation, and body mass index. Many risk factors showed similar relations across racial/ethnic groups, but tubal ligation and family history of breast or ovarian cancer showed stronger associations among African Americans. Younger age at menarche was associated with risk only in white women. Attributable fractions associated with tubal ligation, oral contraceptive use, and obesity were markedly higher for African Americans. The relative importance of ovarian cancer risk factors may differ for African-American women, but conclusions were limited by the small sample. There is a clear need for further research on etiologic factors for ovarian cancer in African-American women.

Studying health histories of cancer: a new model connecting cancer incidence and survival

The results of recent experimental and epidemiological studies provide evidence on the connection between carcinogenesis, cancer progression, and aging. Existing models, however, are traditionally focused only on one of these aspects of health deterioration. In this paper, we derive a new model of cancer, which describes the connection between the ages at disease onset, the duration of disease, and life span of respective individuals. The model combines ideas used in the two hits model of carcinogenesis with those used in the Le Bras multistate model of aging with constant transition intensities. The model is used in the joint analyses of the US demographic mortality data and SEER data for selected cancers. The results show that the developed approach is capable of explaining links among health history data and provides useful insights on mechanisms of cancer occurrence, disease progression, other aging-related changes, and mortality. Further developments of this model are discussed.

Genetic model for longitudinal studies of aging, health, and longevity and its potential application to incomplete data

Many longitudinal studies of aging collect genetic information only for a sub-sample of participants of the study. These data also do not include recent findings, new ideas and methodological concepts developed by distinct groups of researchers. The formal statistical analyses of genetic data ignore this additional information and therefore cannot utilize the entire research potential of the data. In this paper, we present a stochastic model for studying such longitudinal data in joint analyses of genetic and non-genetic sub-samples. The model incorporates several major concepts of aging known to date and usually studied independently. These include age-specific physiological norms, allostasis and allostatic load, stochasticity, and decline in stress resistance and adaptive capacity with age. The approach allows for studying all these concepts in their mutual connection, even if respective mechanisms are not directly measured in data (which is typical for longitudinal data available to date). The model takes into account dependence of longitudinal indices and hazard rates on genetic markers and permits evaluation of all these characteristics for carriers of different alleles (genotypes) to address questions concerning genetic influence on aging-related characteristics. The method is based on extracting genetic information from the entire sample of longitudinal data consisting of genetic and non-genetic sub-samples. Thus it results in a substantial increase in the accuracy of statistical estimates of genetic parameters compared to methods that use only information from a genetic sub-sample. Such an increase is achieved without collecting additional genetic data. Simulation studies illustrate the increase in the accuracy in different scenarios for datasets structurally similar to the Framingham Heart Study. Possible applications of the model and its further generalizations are discussed.

Cumulative deficits and physiological indices as predictors of mortality and long life

We evaluated the predictive potential for long-term (24-year) survival and longevity (85+ years) of an index of cumulative deficits (DI) and six physiological indices (pulse pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, serum cholesterol, blood glucose, and hematocrit) measured in mid- to late life (44-88 years) for participants of the 9th and 14th Framingham Heart Study examinations. For all ages combined, the DI, pulse pressure, and blood glucose are the strongest determinants of both long-term survival and longevity, contributing cumulatively to their explanation. Diastolic blood pressure and hematocrit are less significant determinants of both of these outcomes. The pulse rate is more relevant to survival, whereas serum cholesterol is more relevant to longevity. Only the DI is a significant predictor of longevity and mortality for each 5-year age group ranging from 45 to 85 years. The DI appears to be a more important determinant of long-term risks of death and longevity than are the physiological indices.

Abstract B119: Place of behavior risk factors in cancer risk of the U.S. elderly population

B119

About 80% of all cancers are diagnosed in elderly and more than 80% of known risk factors of cancer are considered to be potentially preventable. We present an approach to estimating the contributions of a spectrum of various measurable risk factors including behavioral/lifestyle risk factors to cancer risk in the U.S. elderly population.

The three sources of data used are 1) nationally representative National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) - for measuring the functional status and behavioral factors in the elderly, 2) Medicare Claim files linked to each person from the NLTCS - for cancer incidence and mortality in the U.S. population, and 3) SEER data used as a “gold standard” for comparison of SEER age patterns of selected cancers with age patterns predicted through using NLTCS-Medicare data. The 1994 and 1999 NLTCS were analyzed and, in total, more than 200 variables for each survey were selected and grouped in fourteen groups, including daily living activities, physical activities, smoking, alcohol consumption, social activities, self-reported comorbidity, health insurance, medical providers, and others. Several approaches were tested to elaborate the measures in each group and aggregated scores: 1) stepwise technique allowing to select variables in these groups which are most predictive for selected cancer incidences, 2) constructing aggregating scores by combining information from all variables in each group, 3) factor analysis methods to extract one factor for each group. Elaborated characteristics were tested for association with selected cancer incidences during the following 5 years since the date of interview. Breast, prostate, lung, and colon cancers were selected for analyses due to their high incidence rates, and because their incidence rates can be reconstructed relatively well from Medicare data.

As a result of this analysis we obtained a description of higher cancer risk groups in terms of variables measured in NLTCS and aggregated indices constructed from these variables. Groups of parameters of physical activity, tobacco consumption, comorbid conditions, demographic characteristics, and health insurance and medical care providers showed significant contributions in increasing or decreasing the risk of incidence of breast, lung, colon, and prostate cancers in the elderly. Contribution of groups of factors, and of individual factors inside the group varied depending on cancer site, e.g., smoking and pulmonary comorbidity were strongly associated with lung cancer risk, physical activity was associated with breast cancer risk. The performed sensitivity analyses included the impact of scheme for filling missing data and the comparison of the results obtained from different algorithms of cancer onset reconstruction.

Behavioral risk factors analyzed both individually and grouped in related clusters, significantly affect cancer risks in the U.S. elderly population. The most influential of the potentially preventable risk factors can be detected using this approach and applied to further deeper analyses, including other data sets with detailed risk factors description. Using information about the duration and intensity of influential risk factors, more individualized forecast of cancer risk can be made and more individualized prevention strategies can be applied.

Citation Information: Cancer Prev Res 2008;1(7 Suppl):B119.

Abstract B120: Capturing connection between aging and aging-associated diseases: The case of cancer

B120

Traditional epidemiological studies of cancer often approximate age patterns of the incidence and mortality rates by appropriate parametric functions. Although such formal description is certainly convenient from the demographic point of view it does not allow for biological interpretation of the respective parameters, and, therefore, has limited use beyond demographic applications. The idea to describe cancer hazard rates in terms of biologically interpretable parameters resulted in the development of the research area called the “mathematical modeling of cancer” or “cancer modeling.” These models, however, do not allow for studying either connection between health history events, or links between cancer and aging, detected in a number of recent molecular biological and experimental studies. To take such connections into account, the new models of cancer are needed.

In this paper, we suggest a new approach to modeling health history events associated with cancer and aging. The events include the onset of cancer, death from causes different from cancer, and death of individuals with and without cancer. Besides, this approach allows for taking into account unobservable precancerous changes in tissues, as well as deterioration in individuals’ health associated with the aging related processes. An attractive feature of this model is that all functional forms for the population characteristics can be derived analytically. The model also allows for studying a possible trade-off between two lines of organisms’ defense against a disease. The first is responsible for its vulnerability (robustness) and affects the age of disease onset. The second deals with organism’s resilience, i.e., its ability of coping with disease when it strikes. It affects chances of recovery, as well as duration of staying in an unhealthy state. The model allows for testing hypotheses about possibility of trade-off between these two defense strategies.

The derived model was tested by fitting it to the combined data set consisting of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) dataset on cancer incidence and case-fatality data in the U.S. for different types of cancer and the U.S. overall mortality data taken from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). The results of the analyses show that the approach captures non-monotonic age patterns of cancer incidence and case fatality rates. The developed approach is capable of explaining links among health history data and provides useful insights on mechanisms of cancer occurrence, disease progression, other aging related changes, and mortality. The results also indicate that parameters, characterizing individual aging rate, may depend on type of cancer developing in body. Further developments of this approach are discussed.

Citation Information: Cancer Prev Res 2008;1(7 Suppl):B120.

Trade-off between cancer and aging: what role do other diseases play? Evidence from experimental and human population studies

The potential gain in life expectancy which could result from the complete elimination of mortality from cancer in the U.S. would not exceed 3 years if one were to consider cancer independently of other causes of death. In this paper, we review evidence of trade-offs between cancer and aging as well as between cancer and other diseases, which, if taken into account, may substantially increase estimates of gain in life expectancy resulting from cancer eradication. We also used the Multiple Causes of Death (MCD) data to evaluate correlations among mortalities from cancer and other major disorders including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's diseases, and asthma. Our analyses revealed significant negative correlations between cancer and other diseases suggesting stronger population effects of cancer eradication. Possible mechanisms of the observed dependencies and emerging perspectives of using dependent competing risks models for evaluating the effects of reduction of mortality from cancer on life expectancy are discussed.

Model of hidden heterogeneity in longitudinal data

Variables measured in longitudinal studies of aging and longevity do not exhaust the list of all factors affecting health and mortality transitions. Unobserved factors generate hidden variability in susceptibility to diseases and death in populations and in age trajectories of longitudinally measured indices. Effects of such heterogeneity can be manifested not only in observed hazard rates but also in average trajectories of measured indices. Although effects of hidden heterogeneity on observed mortality rates are widely discussed, their role in forming age patterns of other aging-related characteristics (average trajectories of physiological state, stress resistance, etc.) is less clear. We propose a model of hidden heterogeneity to analyze its effects in longitudinal data. The approach takes the presence of hidden heterogeneity into account and incorporates several major concepts currently developing in aging research (allostatic load, aging-associated decline in adaptive capacity and stress-resistance, age-dependent physiological norms). Simulation experiments confirm identifiability of model's parameters.

Cumulative index of elderly disorders and its dynamic contribution to mortality and longevity

The composite index constructed from longitudinal survey data as the level of deficits accumulated by an individual (frailty index) captures important systemic aspects of deterioration in a human organism, and is an attractive candidate for studying determinants of aging and longevity. The objective of this paper was to investigate the ability of this index to characterize human aging, mortality, and longevity. We use 32 variables from the National Long Term Care Survey data characterizing health and daily activities deficits to construct the cumulative frailty index. We use the Cox's proportional hazard model to describe its contribution to mortality. The risk of death considered as the function of the frailty index has asymmetric U-shaped form. The asymmetric U-function of the absolute risk is getting steeper (narrower) with age. The asymmetric U-function describing the relative risk exhibits the opposite tendency with age. The narrowing of the absolute risk functions with age reflects the age-related decline in stress resistance. The widening of the relative risk function with age indicates an increase in the relative contribution of other, unobserved, risk factors (including senescence) to the risk of death. This suggests increasing the role of senescence per se in the increasing risk of death with age compared to the role of specific pathology.

Health decline, aging and mortality: how are they related?

The deterioration of human health with age is manifested in changes of thousands of physiological and biological variables. The contribution of some of such changes to the mortality risk may be small and cannot be reliably detected by existing statistical methods. A cumulative index of health/well-being disorders, which counts changes in observed variables on the way of losing health, may be an appropriate way to take the effects of such variables into account. In this paper we investigate regularities of the aging-related changes in human health/well-being/survival status described by such an index using the new version of the quadratic hazard model of human aging and mortality. We found that the shape and the location of the mortality risk, considered as a function of the introduced health-related index, changes with age reflecting the decline in stress resistance and the age-dependence of the "optimal" health/well-being status. Comparison of these results with findings from early studies using the Cox's-like model of risk function indicates that the results are likely to describe regularities of deterioration in human health during the aging process.

Stochastic model for analysis of longitudinal data on aging and mortality

Aging-related changes in a human organism follow dynamic regularities, which contribute to the observed age patterns of incidence and mortality curves. An organism's 'optimal' (normal) physiological state changes with age, affecting the values of risks of disease and death. The resistance to stresses, as well as adaptive capacity, declines with age. An exposure to improper environment results in persisting deviation of individuals' physiological (and biological) indices from their normal state (due to allostatic adaptation), which, in turn, increases chances of disease and death. Despite numerous studies investigating these effects, there is no conceptual framework, which would allow for putting all these findings together, and analyze longitudinal data taking all these dynamic connections into account. In this paper we suggest such a framework, using a new version of stochastic process model of aging and mortality. Using this model, we elaborated a statistical method for analyses of longitudinal data on aging, health and longevity and tested it using different simulated data sets. The results show that the model may characterize complicated interplay among different components of aging-related changes in humans and that the model parameters are identifiable from the data.

Insights on aging and exceptional longevity from longitudinal data: novel findings from the Framingham Heart Study

Age trajectories of physiological indices contain important information about aging-related changes in the human organism and therefore may help us understand human longevity. The goal of this study is to investigate whether shapes of such trajectories earlier in life affect the residual life span distribution. We used longitudinal limited access data from seven physiological indices and life spans of respective individuals collected in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). These include: diastolic blood pressure (DBP), pulse pressure (PP), body mass index (BMI), serum cholesterol (SCH), blood glucose (BG), hematocrit (HC), and pulse rate (PR). We developed a method for assigning individuals to groups of potentially long-lived (PLL) and potentially medium-lived (PML) groups using age trajectories of physiological indices at the age interval between 40 and 60 years. The analysis shows that the longevity of individuals who survived to age of 65 depends on the behavior of the physiological indices between 40 and 60 years of age.