High-Target Hemodiafiltration Convective Dose Achieved in Most Patients in a 6-Month Intermediary Analysis of the CONVINCE Randomized Controlled Trial

Introduction

High convection volumes in hemodiafiltration (HDF) result in improved survival; however, it remains unclear whether it is achievable in all patients.

Methods

CONVINCE, a randomized controlled trial, randomized patients with end-stage kidney disease 1:1 to high-dose HDF versus high-flux hemodialysis (HD) continuation. We evaluated the proportion of patients achieving high-dose HDF target: convection volume per visit of ≥23 l (range ±1 l) at baseline, month 3, and month 6. We compared baseline characteristics in the following 2 ways: (i) patients on target for all 3 visits versus patients who missed target on ≥1 visits and (ii) patients on target for all 3 visits or missing it once versus patients who missed target on ≥2 visits.

Results

A total of 653 patients were randomized to HDF. Their mean age was 62.2 (SD 13.5) years, 36% were female, 81% had fistula vascular access, and 33% had diabetes. Across the 3 visits, 75 patients (11%), 27 patients (4%), and 11 patients (2%) missed the convection volume target once, twice, and thrice, respectively. Apart from diabetes, there were no apparent differences in patient characteristics between patients who always achieved the high-dose target (83%) and those who missed the target either once or more (17%) or twice or more (6%).

Conclusion

Achieving high-dose HDF is feasible for nearly all patients in CONVINCE and could be maintained during the 6-month follow-up period. Apart from diabetes, there were no other indications for confounding by indication on multivariable analyses that may explain the potential survival advantage for patients receiving high-dose HDF.

Palliative Whole Brain Radiotherapy: International State of Practice 2022

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Increasing technology of radiation treatment planning and delivery, better systemic therapies, and randomized trials in the population of patients (pts) with brain metastases have provided robust targeted options. This has resulted in palliative whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) being used far less frequently than previously. Most centers preferentially use stereotactic radiation surgery (SRS) for pts with several lesions and may reserve WBRT for those with poor performance, with rapidly progressive disease, or with leptomeningeal presentation. We hypothesize that different trends in current WBRT regimens exist across different continents with varying rates of use of hippocampal avoidance (HA) and memantine. Despite differences in dose, fractionation, and treatment technique, we predict that survival post-WBRT will remain poor-indicating appropriate application of whole brain treatment in this era of SRS and improved systemic therapies.

MATERIALS/METHODS

A multi-center international analysis of pts receiving WBRT in 2022 was performed. Primary end point was survival after WBRT. Participating centers were located in Belgium, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Cyprus, Italy, Germany, Ghana, and the United States. De-identified data were collected and analyzed centrally. Pts receiving WBRT as part of a curative regimen (e.g., medulloblastoma, primary CNS lymphomas), prophylactically in small cell lung cancer, or as bridging prior to CAR-T were excluded. The collected data consisted of pt parameters including prior stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS), prescription dose and fractionation, use of HA technique with or without memantine, and survival after WBRT. Survival was calculated via the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

Of 23,332 RT prescriptions written at these centers in 2022, 399 (1.7%) were for palliative WBRT. Most frequent primary cancers were lung (42%) and breast (28%). Twenty-seven different dose regimens were used. The most common prescriptions were for 3 Gy daily fractions for 10 fractions (45%) and 4 Gy daily for 5 fractions (37%). Prior CNS SRS was delivered in 32 pts (7%). HA technique was used in 44 pts (10%); this technique was almost exclusively used in the United States. Memantine was prescribed in 93 pts (20%). Survival ranged from zero days to still surviving. The global median overall survival was 84 days after completion of treatment (95% CI: 68.0-104.0). Cumulative 3-month and 6-month actuarial survivals were 48% and 32%.

CONCLUSION

This "moment in time" analysis confirms that pts with poor expected survival are being appropriately selected for WBRT and demonstrates the variance in global practice. Since poor survival precludes these pts from deriving much benefit, memantine and HA may be best suited only for carefully selected cases; use of these is not Standard of Care in the participating European, Asian, and African centers.

Recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events preventable with guideline recommended lipid-lowering treatment following myocardial infarction

Background

The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) cholesterol guideline provides recommendations for lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) including statins, ezetimibe and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor (PCSK9i) to prevent recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in adults with established ASCVD. Many adults with ASCVD who are recommended to take statins, ezetimibe and/or PCSK9i do not receive these medications.

Purpose

To estimate the number of recurrent ASCVD events potentially prevented by population-wide use of guideline recommended LLT following a myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods

We simulated the population-wide impact of receipt of 2018 AHA/ACC cholesterol guideline recommended LLT over 3 and 5 years among US adults with government health insurance through Medicare or commercial health insurance following hospital discharge for MI. We used data from patients with an MI hospitalization in 2018–2019 to estimate the percentage receiving guideline recommended LLT defined by having the medications available to take in the 30 days after their discharge date. We used data from patients with an MI hospitalization in 2013–2016 to estimate the 3 and 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrent ASCVD events (i.e., MI, coronary revascularization or ischemic stroke). The reduction in ASCVD events associated with guideline recommended LLT was estimated from a meta-analysis by the Cholesterol-Lowering Treatment Trialists Collaboration. We conducted a sensitivity analysis estimating the number and percentage of ASCVD events prevented if LLT recommendations from the 2019 European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society (ESC/EAS) cholesterol guideline were followed. We repeated all analyses with recurrent coronary heart disease (i.e., MI or coronary revascularization) and ischemic stroke events as separate outcomes.

Results

Among 279,395 adults with an MI hospitalization in 2018–2019 (mean age 75 years, 54% men, mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol 92 mg/dL), 27% were receiving guideline recommended LLT. With current lipid-lowering medication use, we estimated that 70,698 (95% CI: 70,311–71,077) and 89,255 (95% CI: 88,841–89,730) ASCVD events would occur in 3 and 5 years, respectively, after MI hospital discharge (Table, top panel). If all patients were to receive 2018 AHA/ACC guideline recommended LLT, the number of ASCVD events was estimated to be reduced by 21.6%, representing 15,264 (95% CI: 14,451–16,679) events prevented over 3 years and 19,271 (95% CI: 18,245–21,055) events prevented over 5 years. A higher number of recurrent ASCVD events were estimated to be averted following the LLT recommendations of the 2019 ESC/EAS cholesterol guideline (Table, bottom panel).

Conclusions

Population-wide implementation of guideline recommended LLT in adults with an MI hospitalization could prevent a substantial number of recurrent ASCVD events.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Amgen Inc.

Technology-supported home monitoring in heart failure patients

Background

Digital health promises to enhance the prevailing episodic models of chronic heart failure (HF) care.

Purpose

We aimed to test the hypothesis that digital home monitoring with centralised specialist support for remote management of HF and major vascular comorbidities is more effective in optimising medical therapy and improving patients' quality of life than digital home monitoring alone.

Methods and results

In a two-armed partially blinded parallel randomised controlled trial, seven sites in the United Kingdom recruited a total of 202 adults with HF (71.3 years SD 11.1; mean left ventricular ejection fraction 32.9% SD 15.4). Participants were selected for being at high risk of adverse outcomes or high potential to benefit from remote management. Participants in both study arms were given an internet-enabled tablet computer, Bluetooth-enabled blood pressure monitor and weighing scales for health monitoring. After a run-in period, participants randomized to intervention received additional regular feedback to support self-management and their primary care doctors received instructions on blood investigations and pharmacological treatment. The primary outcome was the use of recommended medical therapy, for chronic HF and major comorbidities, measured as a composite opportunity score. Co-primary outcome was change in physical score of Minnesota Living with Heart failure questionnaire.

At the end of the trial, the weighted opportunity score was 0.54 (CI 95% 0.46, 0.62) in the control group and 0.61 (CI 95% 0.52, 0.70) in the intervention arm (p for mean difference=0.25). Physical well-being of participants did not differ significantly between the groups either (p=0.55).

Conclusions

Central provision of tailored specialist management in a multimorbid HF population was feasible. However, there was no strong evidence for improvement in use of evidence-based therapies nor health-related quality of life.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services Research and Delivery; NIHR Career Development Fellowship

Blood pressure lowering treatment for prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation: an individual-participant data meta-analysis

Background

Randomised evidence showing that pharmacological blood pressure (BP) lowering can reduce cardiovascular risk of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is limited.

Purpose

This study aimed to compare the effect of BP-lowering treatment on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes in patients with and without AF overall and by major drug classes.

Methods

We extracted individual participant data from all trials with over 1,000 person-years of follow-up that had randomly assigned patients to different classes of BP-lowering drugs, BP-lowering drugs vs placebo, or to more vs less intensive BP-lowering regimens. We investigated the effects of BP-lowering treatment on a composite endpoint of major cardiovascular events (stroke, ischaemic heart disease or heart failure) according to AF status at baseline using fixed-effect one-stage individual participant data meta-analyses based on Cox proportional hazards models stratified by trial.

Findings

Twenty-two trials were included with 188,570 patients, of whom 13,266 (7%) had AF at baseline. Patients with AF had lower BP at baseline than patients without AF (143/84 mmHg, SD 21/12mmHg) versus 155/88 mmHg, SD 21/13 mmHg, respectively). Meta-regression showed that relative risk reductions were proportional to trial-level intensity of BP lowering, both in patients with and without AF. The hazard ratio for major cardiovascular events was 0.91 in patients with AF (95% confidence interval [0.83–1.00]) and 0.91 without AF (95% confidence interval [0.88–0.93]) for each 5-mmHg reduction in systolic BP, with no difference between subgroups (p=0.91) (Figure 1). Similar patterns were observed for individual components of the composite primary outcome. In patients with AF, there was no evidence that treatment effects varied according to baseline systolic BP or use of specific drug classes.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated that BP-lowering treatment reduces the risk of major cardiovascular events in patients with AF to a similar extent to that of patients without AF, even when baseline BP is below recommended treatment thresholds. Owing to their higher absolute cardiovascular risk, treatment in patients with AF is likely to result in greater absolute risk reduction than in patients without AF. Guidelines should be updated to clearly recommend pharmacological BP lowering for prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with AF.

Figure 1. Forest plot

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

Sex differences in the rates of incident and recurrent coronary heart disease and all-cause mortality

Background

Women have lower age-specific rates of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) than men. However, it remains unclear whether women maintain the same advantage once they have had a cardiac event.

Purpose

To assess whether sex differences in the rates of cardiac events and all-cause mortality among individuals without a history of CHD persist following a myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods

We identified 171,897 women and 167,993 men <65 years of age with commercial health insurance and ≥66 years of age with government health insurance through Medicare who had a MI hospitalization between 2015 and 2016 in the US. These beneficiaries were matched to 687,588 women and 671,972 men without a history of CHD based on age and calendar year. Beneficiaries were followed until December 2017 for the occurrence of MI, CHD, heart failure, and all-cause mortality (Medicare only).

Results

The age-standardized rates of MI per 1,000 person-years were 4.5 in women and 5.7 in men without a history of CHD (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval] of female sex: 0.64 [0.62; 0.67]) and 60.2 in women and 59.8 in men with a history of MI (HR: 0.94 [0.92, 0.96]) (Figure 1). Rates of CHD events in women vs. men were 6.3 vs. 10.7 among those without CHD (HR: 0.53 [0.51, 0.54]) and 84.5 vs. 99.3 among those with MI (HR: 0.87 [0.85, 0.89]). Heart failure hospitalization rates in women vs. men were 9.3 vs. 6.6 for those without CHD (HR: 0.93 [0.90, 0.96]) and 114.9 vs. 97.9 among those with MI (HR: 1.02 [1.00, 1.04]). All-cause mortality rates in women vs. men were 63.7 vs. 59.0 among those without CHD (HR: 0.72 [0.71; 0.73]) and 311.6 vs. 284.5 among those with a MI (HR: 0.90 [0.89, 0.92]).

Conclusion

The women advantage against MI, CHD, heart failure and all-cause mortality is considerably attenuated following a MI, suggesting that a prior MI puts women at almost the same high-risk of subsequent events as men.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): This work was funded by an industry/academic collaboration between Amgen Inc. and University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Effect of blood pressure lowering treatment on the risk of atrial fibrillation: an individual-participant data meta-analysis

Background

Although observational studies have suggested an association between elevated blood pressure (BP) and increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), randomised evidence on the effects of pharmacological blood pressure lowering on the risk of new-onset AF remains limited.

Purpose

To investigate the effects of pharmacological BP lowering on the risk of AF overall and stratified by baseline risk of AF and by drug class.

Methods

We extracted individual participant data from trials with over 1,000 person-years of follow-up that had randomly assigned patients to different classes of BP-lowering drugs, BP-lowering drugs vs placebo, or to more vs less intensive BP-lowering regimens. We investigated the effects of BP lowering on the risk of new-onset AF using fixed-effect one-stage individual participant data meta-analyses based on Cox proportional hazards models stratified by trial.

Results

Twenty-one trials were included with a total of 194,041 patients, in whom 6,357 new-onset and 516 recurrent AF events were recorded. The hazard ratio for new-onset AF was 1.01, 95% CI [0.95–1.07] per each 5-mmHg reduction in systolic BP, and meta-regression suggested that treatment effects were similar irrespective of the intensity of systolic BP reduction. Patients were overall at low risk of AF at baseline (median 2.3%, IQR [1.2–3.4%] at 5 years), and there was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effects across thirds of risk and 10-mmHg strata of baseline systolic BP (Figure). There was also no clear evidence that treatment effects differed between drug classes when renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors and calcium channel blockers were compared with placebo and/or standard treatment.

Conclusion

In a low-risk population, pharmacological BP lowering did not reduce the risk of new-onset AF. Further research is needed to understand whether the effects would be different in high-risk individuals, and to better clarify the existence of class-specific effects.

Figure 1. Forest plot

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

Stratified effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment on long-term blood pressure: an individual patient-level meta-analysis involving 50 randomised trials and 334,219 participants

Background

Meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials (RCT) have shown the efficacy of pharmacologic lowering of blood pressure (BP) in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. While efficacy has been shown across important patient characteristics, meta-analysis based on aggregate data could not fully account for potential sources of variation due to individual-level characteristics. Moreover, it is unclear if any variation in treatment effects due to patient characteristics are reflected in differential effects of BP-lowering treatment on long-term BP according to these characteristics.

Purpose

We determined the effects of BP-lowering treatment on repeated measures of blood pressure, identified trial- and participant-level sources of heterogeneity, and examined consistency of these BP-lowering effects across different patient characteristics.

Methods

We conducted an individual patient-level data meta-analysis (N=50 trials) using one-stage approach. We classified trials according to trial design: drug comparison (N=28), placebo-controlled (N=21) and BP-lowering intensity (N=8) trials. We fitted mixed models with fixed treatment effects and fixed time effect, random intercepts at trial and participant level, and a random slope for time at participant level. We adjusted for age, sex and baseline BP (except when used as stratification factor). We used likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criterion to compare models.

Results

This meta-analysis included 334,219 (42% women) participants. At baseline, mean age=65 (SD=9) years, among whom 18% were current smokers, 47% had cardiovascular disease, 29% had diabetes, and 73% were previously on BP-lowering medication. Participants had an average of 8 BP measurements over 4 years of mean follow-up. For drug comparison trials, mean differences (95% confidence interval) in systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) between comparison arms were 1.3 (1.2 to 1.3) mmHg and 0.5 (0.5 to 0.5) mmHg, respectively; for placebo-controlled trials, the SBP and DBP differences were 4.2 (4.0 to 4.3) mmHg and 1.9 (1.9 to 2.0) mmHg, respectively; and for BP-lowering intensity trials, the SBP and DBP differences were 8.2 (8.0 to 8.4) mmHg and 3.7 (3.6 to 3.9) mmHg, respectively. However, BP reduction differed by duration of follow-up, type of trial. In particular, for placebo-controlled and BP-intensity trials, heterogeneity in BP reductions according to patient characteristics such as baseline BP, age, sex, prior CVD, diabetes and non-randomised anti-hypertensive use were observed.

Conclusion

This study shows the role of pharmacologic agents in effectively reducing long-term BP across individuals with a wide range of characteristics. The magnitude of BP reduction varied by several patient characteristics. This might have implications for investigation and explanation of any differential effects of BP treatment on major clinical outcomes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation; NIHR Oxford Biomedial Research Centre

Oestradiol and the risk of myocardial infarction in women: a cohort study of UK Biobank participants

Background

It is commonly assumed that high oestradiol levels in women are cardioprotective. We assessed the association between oestradiol and the risk of incident myocardial infarction in women.

Methods

We used data from 263,295 female UK Biobank participants (mean age 56.2; SD 8.0 years) without prior cardiovascular disease. Associations of oestradiol with age and other cardiovascular risk factors were assessed. Cox proportional hazards models estimated crude, age, and multiple-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for MI associated with oestradiol levels.

Results

After a mean follow-up of 9 years, 2,206 incident cases of MI had been recorded, including 230 events among the 57,204 women (mean age 48) with detectable oestradiol levels. In the unadjusted analyses, a unit higher in log-transformed oestradiol was associated with a HR (95% CI) for MI of 0.73 (0.58; 0.92). After adjusting for age this HR became 0.94 (0.75; 1.17), and after further adjusting for classical CVD risk factors, 1.05 (0.83; 1.31. Results were similar in subgroup analyses defined by age, menopausal status, socioeconomic status, pill use, and the use of hormone replacement therapy. The multivariable adjusted HR for the 171,431 women (mean age 59) with undetectable levels of oestradiol, compared to those with detectable levels, was 0.97 (0.92; 1.02).

Conclusion

Higher levels of oestradiol were not associated with a decreased risk of MI. The presumed cardioprotective effects of oestradiol seem to be largely confounded by age, and further confounded by other cardiovascular risk factors.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Self-rated health scores predict mortality among people with type 2 diabetes differently across three different country groupings: findings from the ADVANCE and ADVANCE-ON trials

AIMS

To explore whether there is a different strength of association between self-rated health and all-cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes across three country groupings: nine countries grouped together as 'established market economies'; Asia; and Eastern Europe.

METHODS

The ADVANCE trial and its post-trial follow-up were used in this study, which included 11 140 people with type 2 diabetes from 20 countries, with a median follow-up of 9.9 years. Self-rated health was reported on a 0-100 visual analogue scale. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to estimate the relationship between the visual analogue scale score and all-cause mortality, controlling for a range of demographic and clinical risk factors. Interaction terms were used to assess whether the association between the visual analogue scale score and mortality varied across country groupings.

RESULTS

The visual analogue scale score had different strengths of association with mortality in the three country groupings. A 10-point increase in visual analogue scale score was associated with a 15% (95% CI 12-18) lower mortality hazard in the established market economies, a 25% (95% CI 21-28) lower hazard in Asia, and an 8% (95% CI 3-13) lower hazard in Eastern Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-rated health appears to predict 10-year all-cause mortality for people with type 2 diabetes worldwide, but this relationship varies across groups of countries.

Parenthood and risk of hip fracture: a 10-year follow-up prospective study of middle-aged women and men in China

This prospective study of Chinese adults demonstrated an inverse J-shaped association of number of children with risk of hip fracture in both men and postmenopausal women aged 50 years or older. Women with 2 or 3 children and men with 4 children had the lowest risk of hip fracture.

INTRODUCTION

Women have higher absolute risks of fracture than men, which is believed to reflect differences in oestrogen exposure. The aim of this study was to compare the associations of number of children with risk of hip fracture between men and women aged over 50 years.

METHODS

The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited 133,399 women and 110,296 men, aged 50 years or older between 2004 and 2008. During 10-year follow-up, 2068 participants (1394 women and 674 men) suffered a hip fracture. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate sex-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI for incident hip fracture.

RESULTS

Over 98% of both subsets of men and women aged 50 or older reported having children. Women who had 2 or 3 children had the lowest risks of hip fracture compared with other groups. Compared with nulliparous women, the adjusted HR for hip fracture were 0.89 (95% CI; 0.72, 1.10) for 1 child, 0.79 (0.70, 0.90) for 2 children, 0.79 (0.72, 0.87) for 3 children, 0.81 (0.72, 0.91) for 4 children, and 0.95 (0.83, 1.10) for those with 5 or more children. The associations of number of children with hip fracture were broadly consistent in men of a similar age.

CONCLUSIONS

The concordant effects of the number of children with risk of hip fracture between men and women suggest that the lower risks in multiparous women are not due to differences in oestrogen exposure or other biological effects, but may reflect residual confounding by socioeconomic or lifestyle factors.

Publisher Correction: Parenthood and risk of hip fracture: a 10-year follow-up prospective study of middle-aged women and men in China

The original version of this article, published on 25 November 2019, unfortunately contained a mistake.

5191Recurrent coronary heart disease in the year following myocardial infarction among US men and women between 2008 and 2015

Background

Although the risk of recurrent events among adults with coronary heart disease (CHD) has declined considerably from the 1970's in the US and many Western countries, studies from the 2000's show that rates remain high. Women have lower rates of incident CHD but little is known about sex differences in recurrent events in adults with CHD.

Purpose

To examine trends in rates of recurrent myocardial infarction (MI), recurrent CHD, and all-cause mortality following a MI hospitalization between 2008 and 2015 among US men and women. Also, we compared sex differences in event rates among individuals with a MI hospitalization versus their counterparts without a history of CHD.

Methods

Data were used from 1,232,024 (53% women) US adults <65 years of age with commercial health insurance in the MarketScan database and US adults ≥66 years of age with government health insurance through Medicare who had a MI hospitalization between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2015. For each calendar year, age-standardized sex-specific rates of recurrent MI, recurrent CHD (i.e., recurrent MI or coronary revascularization), and all-cause mortality (in Medicare only) were calculated through 365 days following the hospital discharge date for MI. In a secondary analyses, we assessed the rate of recurrent MI, CHD events and all-cause mortality among women versus men with a history of MI (n=324,283) and without a history of CHD (n=1,297,132) in 2014–2015. For these analyses, adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were calculated using follow-up through December 31, 2016.

Results

From 2008 to 2015, age-standardized rates over 365 days of follow-up for recurrent MI declined by 15%, from 94 to 80 per 1000 person-years, in men and by 14%, from 89 to 77 per 1000 person-years, in women. Age-standardized recurrent CHD rates decreased by 16%, from 163 to 138 per 1000 person-years, in men and by 17%, from 142 to 118 per 1000 person-years, in women. In the Medicare population, age-standardized all-cause mortality rates following MI decreased by 6%, from 446 to 421 per 1000 person-years, in men and by 3%, from 412 to 398 per 1000 person-years, in women. In the secondary analyses, the women-to-men hazard ratios for those with a history of MI and those without prior CHD were 0.97 (0.94–0.99) and 0.67 (0.65–0.69), respectively, for MI, 0.89 (0.87–0.91) and 0.52 (0.51–0.54), respectively, for CHD, and 0.84 (0.83–0.85) and 0.74 (0.73–0.75) respectively, for all-cause mortality.

Conclusion

Reductions in rates of recurrent MI, recurrent CHD, and all-cause mortality within 365 days after hospitalization for MI have been similar for US women and men. The lower risk for events comparing women versus men without prior CHD is attenuated after a MI.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The design and conduct of the study was supported through a research grant from Amgen, Inc.

P3422Contrasting the risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events among individuals with lower extremity peripheral artery disease, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease

Background

Having more vascular conditions, including coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease and lower extremity artery disease (LEAD), may increase the risk for atherosclerosis cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events. Specific vascular conditions may increase the ASCVD event rate more than others.

Purpose

To compare the risk for future ASCVD events associated with the number and type of vascular conditions among adults with a history of CHD, cerebrovascular disease and/or LEAD.

Methods

We analyzed data from US adults ≥19 years of age with commercial or Medicare health insurance who had a history of CHD, cerebrovascular disease and/or LEAD as of December 31, 2014 (N=901,391). Individuals were followed through December 31, 2016 (median follow-up: 2 years) for ASCVD events, including myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, stroke, carotid revascularization and lower extremity amputation or revascularization.

Results

Among individuals included in the current analysis (mean age 63 years, 45% female), 70%, 23% and 7% had 1, 2 and 3 vascular conditions, respectively. After adjustment for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratio for ASCVD among individuals with 2 and 3 versus 1 vascular conditions was 1.88 (1.85, 1.92) and 2.93 (2.86, 3.00), respectively. Among individuals with 1 vascular condition, the rate of ASCVD events per 1,000 person-years was 46.5 (95% CI 44.1, 49.0), 29.6 (95% CI 29.0, 30.1) and 19.9 (95% CI 19.2, 20.8) for those with LEAD, CHD and cerebrovascular disease, respectively. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) for ASCVD events comparing individuals with LEAD only and CHD only versus those with cerebrovascular disease only was 1.84 (1.77, 1.92) and 1.12 (1.08, 1.16), respectively. Among individuals with 2 vascular conditions, the ASCVD event rate per 1,000 person-years was higher in those with LEAD and CHD (122.0, 95% CI 112.5, 132.2) and with LEAD and cerebrovascular disease (92.4, 95% CI 79.9, 106.4), versus those with CHD and cerebrovascular disease (59.1, 95% CI 54.8, 63.6). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) comparing individuals with LEAD and CHD and those with LEAD and cerebrovascular disease versus those with CHD and cerebrovascular disease was 1.48 (1.44, 1.53) and 1.49 (1.41, 1.58), respectively.

Conclusion

Among adults with vascular disease, having LEAD confers a higher risk for future ASCVD events than CHD or cerebrovascular disease and this group may benefit from more intensive risk reduction treatment.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Amgen Inc.

P1691Impact of dose and duration of dietary salt reduction on blood pressure levels: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials

Background

Authoritative medical and public health agencies in most countries advise to reduce population dietary salt intake to under 5–6 g/day as a strategy for preventing high blood pressure and cardiovascular disease. However, there is still dispute about whether salt reduction should be adopted by all populations. In addition, the effect of duration of dietary salt reduction has not been sufficiently investigated.

Purpose

To understand the effect of dietary salt reduction on blood pressure and the impact of intervention duration.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted. Randomized controlled trials that allocated participants to low and high salt intake, without confounding from unequal concomitant interventions, were included. We excluded studies done in individuals younger than 18 years, pregnant women, individuals with renal disease or heart failure, and studies with sodium excretion estimated from spot urine. Random effect meta-analysis was used to generate pooled estimates of the effect on 24-hour urinary sodium excretion, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Multivariate meta-regression was used to quantify the dose response effect of dietary salt on blood pressure change and to understand the impact of the intervention duration.

Results

125 studies were included with 162 data points extracted. Ninety-nine data points (61%) had interventions under 4 weeks. Overall, 24-hour urinary sodium excretion changed by −141 mmol (95% CI: −156; −126), systolic blood pressure changed by −4.4 mm Hg (95% CI: −5.2; −3.7) and diastolic blood pressure changed by −2.4 mm Hg (95% CI: −2.9; −1.9). Sodium reduction resulted in a significant decrease of systolic blood pressure in all subgroups except in participants with low baseline sodium intake (<109 mmol) (Figure 1). Each 100 mmol reduction of sodium was associated with 2.7 mm Hg (95% CI: 1.0; 4.4; p=0.002) reduction of systolic blood pressure and 1.2 mm Hg (95% CI: 0.0; 2.4; p=0.046) reduction of diastolic blood pressure after adjusting for intervention duration, age, sex, race, baseline blood pressure, baseline sodium intake and interaction between age and baseline blood pressure. For the same amount of salt reduction, a 10 mm Hg higher baseline systolic blood pressure would result in 2.5 mm Hg greater reduction of systolic blood pressure. There is not enough evidence to show the impact of intervention duration.

Figure 1

Conclusions

Our meta-analysis showed that sodium reduction could reduce blood pressure in all adult populations regardless of age, sex and race. The effect of salt reduction on systolic blood pressure increases with higher baseline blood pressure. Further studies, designed to investigate the impact of intervention duration, are needed to understand the significance of the duration.

Acknowledgement/Funding

None

P652Lower use of statins among patients with peripheral artery disease compared with those with coronary heart disease

Background

Adults with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease are recommended to take a statin to reduce their risk for future cardiovascular events. Prior studies suggest that statins are being taken by most adults with coronary heart disease (CHD). However, there are few data on the use of statins among adults with peripheral artery disease (PAD).

Purpose

To compare the use of statins among US adults with a history of PAD versus those with a history of CHD.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among US adults ≥19 years of age with commercial or government health insurance who had a history of CHD or PAD as of December 31, 2014 (n=1,006,451, mean age 63 years, 47% male). We used pharmacy claims between January 1 and December 31, 2014 to identify use of any statin and of a high-intensity statin (i.e., atorvastatin 40–80 mg, rosuvastatin 20–40 mg, simvastatin 80 mg). Patients with a history of CHD without PAD (CHD only), both CHD and PAD, and PAD without CHD (PAD only) were analysed. Prevalence ratios for use of any statin and a high-intensity statin among those taking a statin were calculated after multivariable adjustment for sociodemographics and cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

Overall, 69.1% of patients included in the current analysis had CHD only, 21.4% had both CHD and PAD, and 9.5% had PAD only. Overall, 66.0%, 68.2% and 47.5% of patients with CHD only, CHD and PAD, and PAD only were taking a statin. After multivariable adjustment and compared to patients with CHD only, the prevalence ratio for statin use was 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.02) for those with both CHD and PAD and 0.82 (95% CI 0.82, 0.83) for those with PAD only. Among patients taking a statin, 29.4% of those with CHD only, 28.6% of those with both CHD and PAD, and 17.3% of those with PAD only were taking a high-intensity dosage. Compared to patients with CHD only, the multivariable adjusted prevalence ratio for taking a high-intensity dosage was 1.05 (95% CI 1.04, 1.06) for those with both CHD and PAD and 0.71 (95% CI 0.70, 0.73) for those with PAD only.

Conclusion

Adults with PAD receive less intensive statin therapy compared with their counterparts who have CHD. Interventions aimed to increase statin use among patients with PAD are warranted.

Acknowledgement/Funding

This study was supported through a research grant from Amgen, Inc. (Thousand Oaks, CA, USA).

The association of the dietary approach to stop hypertension (DASH) diet with blood pressure, glucose and lipid profiles in Malaysian and Philippines populations

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Despite a growing body of evidence from Western populations on the health benefits of Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diets, their applicability in South East Asian settings is not clear. We examined cross-sectional associations between DASH diet and cardio-metabolic risk factors among 1837 Malaysian and 2898 Philippines participants in a multi-national cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Blood pressures, fasting lipid profile and fasting glucose were measured, and DASH score was computed based on a 22-item food frequency questionnaire. Older individuals, women, those not consuming alcohol and those undertaking regular physical activity were more likely to have higher DASH scores. In the Malaysian cohort, while total DASH score was not significantly associated with cardio-metabolic risk factors after adjusting for confounders, significant associations were observed for intake of green vegetable [0.011, standard error (SE): 0.004], and red and processed meat (-0.009, SE: 0.004) with total cholesterol. In the Philippines cohort, a 5-unit increase in total DASH score was significantly and inversely associated with systolic blood pressure (-1.41, SE: 0.40), diastolic blood pressure (-1.09, SE: 0.28), total cholesterol (-0.015, SE: 0.005), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.025, SE: 0.008), and triglyceride (-0.034, SE: 0.012) after adjusting for socio-demographic and lifestyle groups. Intake of milk and dairy products, red and processed meat, and sugared drinks were found to significantly associated with most risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Differential associations of DASH diet and dietary components with cardio-metabolic risk factors by country suggest the need for country-specific tailoring of dietary interventions to improve cardio-metabolic risk profiles.

Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980 793 adults from 68 prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men.

METHODS

In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes.

RESULTS

Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980 793 adults. During 9·8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19 686 (25·6%) of 76 965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2·10, 95% CI 1·97-2·24) and tripled risk among women (3·00, 2·71-3·33; χ2 test for heterogeneity p<0·0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35-59 years: 2·60, 2·30-2·94) than in older individuals (aged 70-89 years: 2·01, 1·85-2·19; p=0·0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35-59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5·55, 4·15-7·44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35-59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0·05% (95% CI 0·03-0·07) per year in women compared with 0·08% (0·05-0·10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70-89 years was 1·08% (0·84-1·32) per year in women and 0·91% (0·77-1·05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes.

INTERPRETATION

Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union BIOMED programme, and National Institute on Aging (US National Institutes of Health).

The impact of level of education on vascular events and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Results from the ADVANCE study

AIMS

The relationship between educational level and the risk of all-cause mortality is well established, whereas the association with vascular events in individuals with type 2 diabetes is not well described. Any association may reflect a link with common cardiovascular or lifestyle-based risk factors.

METHODS

The relationships between the highest level of educational attainment and major cardiovascular events, microvascular complications and all-cause mortality were explored in a cohort of 11,140 individuals with type 2 diabetes. Completion of formal education before the age of 16 was categorized as a low level of education. Regional differences between Asia, East Europe and Established Market Economies were also assessed.

RESULTS

During a median of 5years of follow up, 1031 (9%) patients died, 1147 (10%) experienced a major cardiovascular event and 1136 (10%) a microvascular event. After adjustment for baseline characteristics and risk factors, individuals with lower education had an increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio (HR) 1.31, 95% CI 1.16-1.48, p<0.0001), microvascular events (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.08-1.39, p=0.0013) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.18-1.52, p<0.0001). In regional analyses the increased risk of studied outcomes associated with lower education was weakest in Established Market Economies and strongest in East Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

A low level of education is associated with an increased risk of vascular events and death in patients with type 2 diabetes, independently of common lifestyle associated cardiovascular risk factors. The effect size varies between geographical regions.

Constitutive expression of the anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 family member A1 in murine endothelial cells leads to transplant tolerance

Anti-apoptotic genes, including those of the Bcl-2 family, have been shown to have dual functionality inasmuch as they inhibit cell death but also regulate inflammation. Several anti-apoptotic molecules have been associated with endothelial cell (EC) survival following transplantation; however, their exact role has yet to be elucidated in respect to controlling inflammation. In this study we created mice expressing murine A1 (Bfl-1), a Bcl-2 family member, under the control of the human intercellular adhesion molecule 2 (ICAM-2) promoter. Constitutive expression of A1 in murine vascular ECs conferred protection from cell death induced by the proinflammatory cytokine tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α. Importantly, in a mouse model of heart allograft transplantation, expression of A1 in vascular endothelium increased survival in the absence of CD8⁺ T cells. Better graft outcome in mice receiving an A1 transgenic heart correlated with a reduced immune infiltration, which may be related to increased EC survival and reduced expression of adhesion molecules on ECs. In conclusion, constitutive expression of the anti-apoptotic molecule Bfl1 (A1) in murine vascular ECs leads to prolonged allograft survival due to modifying inflammation.

High baseline bilirubin and low albumin predict liver decompensation and serious adverse events in HCV-infected patients treated with sofosbuvir-containing regimens

To conduct surveillance and determine the safety profile of new hepatitis C virus treatments in real-world clinical practice. Hepatic decompensation and other serious adverse events were investigated in an observational cohort study of 511 patients treated with regimens containing sofosbuvir, December 2013-June 2014. Among 499 previously stable patients (no history of hepatic decompensation during the previous 12 months), a nested case-control study was performed to identify predictors of decompensation/serious adverse event. Cases and controls were matched 1:5 based on treatment regimen and duration. Matched conditional logistic regression was used for analysis. Providers scored the likelihood that events were treatment-related (scale = 0-4). The cumulative incidence of decompensation/events was 6.4% for the total cohort. Among 499 previously stable patients, the incidence of decompensation/events was 4.5%; the mortality rate was 0.6%. Sixteen of the 499 experienced one or more serious complications considered to be at least potentially treatment-related, and the sustained virological response rate was 7/16 (44%). Two cases, both on sofosbuvir/simeprevir (without interferon or ribavirin), had complications consistent with autoimmune events (score 3, 'likely treatment-related'), and one experienced a flare of autoimmune hepatitis. Compared to controls, cases had higher baseline median model for end-stage liver disease scores (14 vs 8, P < 0.01). Decompensation/events was independently associated with lower baseline albumin (OR = 0.12/g/dL, P = 0.01) and higher total bilirubin (OR = 4.31/mg/dL, P = 0.01). Reduced hepatic function at baseline increased the risk of liver decompensation/events.

A cardiovascular disease policy model: part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities

Objectives

This is the second of the two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state-transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation.

Design

To generate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs, the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each continuous inpatient stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan-Meier sample average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health-related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival.

Results

The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost-effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made.

Conclusions

The policy model can conduct cost-effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities.

Prediction of 10-year vascular risk in patients with diabetes: the AD-ON risk score

AIMS

To formulate a combined cardiovascular risk score in diabetes that could be useful both to physicians and healthcare funders.

METHODS

Data were derived from the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation Observational (ADVANCE-ON) study, a randomized controlled trial (mean duration 5 years) with a post-randomization follow-up (mean 4.9 years), that included 11 140 high-risk patients with diabetes. The outcome analysed was the occurrence of either fatal or non-fatal macrovascular or renal disease. A Cox regression model was used to determine weightings in the risk score. The resultant score was recalibrated to each of three major global regions, as covered by the ADVANCE-ON study.

RESULTS

Over a median of 9.9 years, 1145 patients experienced at least one component of the combined outcome event. The resultant score, the AD-ON risk score, incorporated 13 demographic or clinical variables. Its discrimination was modest [c-statistic = 0.668 (95% confidence interval 0.651, 0.685)] but its calibration was excellent (predicted and observed risks coincided well, within disparate global regions). In terms of the integrated discrimination improvement index, its performance was marginally superior, over a 10-year risk horizon, to existing risk scores in clinical use, from a restricted version of the same data, for macrovascular and renal disease separately.

CONCLUSIONS

The AD-ON risk score has advantages over the existing vascular risk scores in diabetes that used data from the original ADVANCE trial, which treat macrovascular and renal diseases separately. These advantages include its simplicity of use and global application.

Genetic & virulence profiling of ESBL-positive E. coli from nosocomial & veterinary sources

CTX-M genes are the most prevalent ESBL globally, infiltrating nosocomial, community and environmental settings. Wild and domesticated animals may act as effective vectors for the dissemination of CTX-producing Enterobacteriaceae. This study aimed to contextualise blaCTX-M-14-positive, cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacteriaceae human infections and compared resistance and pathogenicity markers with veterinary isolates. Epidemiologically related human (n=18) and veterinary (n=4) blaCTX-M-14-positive E. coli were fully characterised. All were typed by XbaI pulsed field gel electrophoresis and ST. Chromosomal/plasmidic locations of blaCTX-M-14 were deduced by S1-nuclease digestion, and association with ISEcp1 was investigated by sequencing. Conjugation experiments assessed transmissibility of plasmids carrying blaCTX-M-14. Presence of virulence determinants was screened by PCR assay and pathogenicity potential was determined by in vitro Galleria mellonella infection models. 84% of clinical E. coli originated from community patients. blaCTX-M-14 was found ubiquitously downstream of ISEcp1 upon conjugative plasmids (25-150 kb). blaCTX-M-14 was also found upon the chromosome of eight E. coli isolates. CTX-M-14-producing E. coli were found at multiple hospital sites. Clonal commonality between patient, hospitals and livestock microbial populations was found. In vivo model survival rates from clinical isolates (30%) and veterinary isolates (0%) were significantly different (p<0.05). Co-transfer of blaCTX-M-14 and virulence determinants was demonstrated. There is evidence of clonal spread of blaCTX-M-14-positive E. coli involving community patients and farm livestock. blaCTX-M-14 positive human clinical isolates carry a lower intrinsic pathogenic potential than veterinary E. coli highlighting the need for greater veterinary practices in preventing dissemination of MDR E. coli among livestock.

Women's reproductive health factors and body adiposity: findings from the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a comprehensive examination of the association between women's reproductive health factors and measures of body adiposity in a contemporary Western population.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of 502 664 individuals from the UK Biobank was conducted. Multivariable linear regression models were used to examine the association of age at menarche, age at first birth, parity and age at menopause with measures of general and central body adiposity, adjusted for age, smoking and socioeconomic status. The association between number of children and body adiposity in men was also assessed.

RESULTS

Age at menarche was inversely associated with body mass index (BMI); adjusted mean BMI was 29.0 kg m(-2) in women with menarche before the age of 12 years, compared with 26.5 kg m(-2) in those who had menarche after 14 years of age. Age at first birth was linearly and inversely associated with BMI: 0.16 kg m(-2) lower BMI per year increase in age of first birth. Each additional live birth or child fathered was associated with a 0.22 kg m(-2) higher BMI in women and a 0.14 kg m(-2) higher BMI in men. There was no evidence for an association between age at menopause and BMI. Corresponding associations for other markers of general or abdominal adiposity were similar to those for BMI. Findings were broadly similar in analyses stratified by age, smoking status, socioeconomic status, ethnic background, and history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

In women from a contemporary Western population, earlier age at menarche and age at first birth, and higher number of total live births were associated with higher levels of body adiposity. Prospective evaluations of the association between reproductive health factors, adiposity and the onset of cardiometabolic diseases are needed to assess causality, and to explore the mechanisms involved.