Investigation of the structure and magnitude of time-varying uncontrolled confounding in simulated cohort data analyzed using g-computation

BACKGROUND

When estimating the effect of time-varying exposures on longer-term outcomes, the assumption of conditional exchangeability or no uncontrolled confounding extends beyond baseline confounding to include time-varying confounding. We illustrate the structures and magnitude of uncontrolled time-varying confounding in exposure effect estimates obtained from g-computation when sequential conditional exchangeability is violated.

METHODS

We used directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to depict time-varying uncontrolled confounding. We performed simulations and used g-computation to quantify the effects of each time-varying exposure for each DAG type. Models adjusting all time-varying confounders were considered the true (bias-adjusted) estimate. The exclusion of time-varying uncontrolled confounders represented the biased effect estimate and an unmet 'no uncontrolled confounding' assumption. True and biased estimates were compared across DAGs, with different magnitudes of uncontrolled confounding.

RESULTS

Time-varying uncontrolled confounding can present in several scenarios, including relationships into subsequently measured exposure(s), outcome, unmeasured confounder(s) and other measured confounder(s). In simulations, effect estimates obtained from g-computation were more biased in DAGs when the uncontrolled confounders were directly related to the outcome. Complex DAGs that included relationships between uncontrolled confounders and other variables and relationships where exposures caused uncontrolled confounders at the next time point resulted in the most biased effect estimates. In these complex DAGs, excluding uncontrolled confounders affected the multiple effect estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Time-varying uncontrolled confounding has the potential to substantially impact observed effect estimates. Given the importance of longitudinal studies in advising public health, the impact of time-varying uncontrolled confounding warrants more recognition and evaluation using quantitative bias analysis.

Cohort Study and Bias Analysis of the Obesity Paradox Across Stages of Chronic Kidney Disease

OBJECTIVE

In advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), patients with obesity often have better outcomes than patients without obesity, often called the 'obesity paradox'. Yet, in CKD, the prevalence of inflammation increases as CKD progresses. Although a potential confounder, inflammation may be left unaccounted in obesity-mortality studies. We examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) with all-cause and cause-specific mortality across CKD stages, with consideration for uncontrolled confounding due to unmeasured inflammation.

METHODS

We investigated 2,703,512 patients with BMI data between 2004 and 2006. We used Cox models to examine the associations of BMI with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality, (ref: BMI 25-<30 kg/m2), adjusted for clinical characteristics and stratified by CKD stages. To address uncontrolled confounding, we performed bias analysis using a weighted probabilistic model of inflammation given the observed data applied to weighted Cox models.

RESULTS

The cohort included 5% females and 14% African Americans. In adjusted analyses, the associations of the BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality showed a reverse J-shape, where a higher BMI (>40 kg/m2) was associated with a higher risk. Conversely, a lower mortality risk was observed with a BMI 30-<35 kg/m2 across all CKD stages and for BMI >40 kg/m2 in CKD stage 4/5. Cancer mortality analyses showed an inverse relationship. Bias analysis for uncontrolled confounding suggested that independent of inflammation, the obesity paradox was present.

CONCLUSION

We observed the presence of the obesity paradox in this study. This association was consistent in advanced CKD and in our bias analysis, suggesting that inflammation may not fully explain the observed BMI-mortality associations including in patients with CKD.

Serum Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Across Chronic Kidney Disease Stages (Data from 1.9 Million United States Veterans)

In the general population, elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels are an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality; however, the association of LDL with mortality risk and cardiovascular events are less clear in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We sought to examine the relationship of LDL with mortality and rates of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and non-atherosclerotic cardiovascular-related (non-ASCVD) hospitalizations across CKD stages. Our analytical cohort consisted of 1,972,851 United States veterans with serum LDL data between 2004 and 2006. Associations of LDL with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality across CKD stages were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for demographics, comorbid conditions, smoking status, prescription of statins and non-statin lipid-lowering drugs, body mass index, albumin, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides. Associations between LDL and ASCVD and non-ASCVD hospitalizations were estimated using negative binomial regression models across CKD stages. The cohort consisted of 5% female, 14% Black, 29% diabetic, 33% statin-users, and 44% current smokers, with a mean patient age of 64 ± 14 years. Patients with high LDL (≥160 mg/dL) had a higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality as well as ASCVD and non-ASCVD hospitalization rates across all CKD stages compared with the reference (LDL 70 to <100 mg/dL). The associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and ASCVD hospitalization rate were attenuated at higher CKD stages. These trends were reversed with amplification of the association of high LDL with non-ASCVD hospitalization at higher CKD stages. In conclusion, associations of LDL with mortality and both ASCVD and non-ASCVD hospitalizations are modified according to kidney disease stage.

Association of Serum Triglycerides and Renal Outcomes among 1.6 Million US Veterans

Background

Previous studies have suggested that metabolic syndrome (MetS) components are associated with renal outcomes, defined as a decline in kidney function or reaching end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Elevated triglycerides (TGs) are a component of MetS that have been reported to be associated with renal outcomes. However, the association of TGs with renal outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients independent of the other components of the MetS remains understudied.

Methods

We examined 1,657,387 patients with data on TGs and other components of MetS in 2004–2006 and followed up until 2014. Patients with ESRD on renal replacement therapy were excluded. We examined time to ESRD, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope (renal function decline), and time to incident CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m²) among baseline normal kidney function (non-CKD) patients, using Cox or logistic regression, adjusted for clinical characteristics and MetS components. We also stratified analyses by the number of MetS components.

Results

The cohort was on average 64 years old and comprised 5% females, 15% African Americans, and 24% with nondialysis-dependent CKD. Among non-CKD patients, the adjusted relationship of TGs with time to incident CKD was strong and linear. Compared to TGs 120–<160 mg/dL, higher TGs were associated with a faster renal function decline across all CKD stages. Elevated TGs ≥240 mg/dL were associated with a faster time to ESRD among non-CKD and CKD stages 3A–3B, while the risk gradually declined to null or lower in CKD stages 4–5. Models were robust after MetS component adjustment and stratification.

Conclusion

Independent of MetS components, high TGs levels were associated with a higher incidence of CKD and a faster renal function decline, yet showed no or inverse associations with time to ESRD in CKD stages 4–5. Examining the effects of TGs-lowering interventions on incident CKD and kidney preserving therapy warrants further studies including clinical trials.

Comparative Effectiveness of Dialysis Modality on Laboratory Parameters of Mineral Metabolism

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorders (CKD-MBD) are prevalent in patients undergoing maintenance dialysis. Yet, there are limited and mixed evidence on the effects of different dialysis modalities involving longer treatment times or higher frequencies on CKD-MBD markers.

METHODS

This cohort study used data from 132,523 incident dialysis patients treated with any of the following modalities: conventional thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis, nocturnal in-center hemodialysis (NICHD), home hemodialysis (HHD), or peritoneal dialysis (PD) from 2007 to 2011. We used marginal structural models fitted with inverse probability weights to adjust for fixed and time-varying confounding and informative censoring. We estimated the average effects of treatments with different dialysis modalities on time-varying serum concentrations of CKD-MBD markers: albumin-corrected calcium, phosphate, parathyroid hormone (PTH), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) using pooled linear regression.

RESULTS

Most of the cohort were exclusively treated with conventional in-center hemodialysis, while few were ever treated with NICHD or HHD. At the baseline, PD patients had the lowest mean and median values of PTH, while NICHD patients had the highest median values. During follow-up, compared to hemodialysis patients, patients treated with NICHD had lower mean serum PTH (19.8 pg/mL [95% confidence interval: 2.8, 36.8] lower), whereas PD and HHD patients had higher mean PTH (39.7 pg/mL [31.6, 47.8] and 51.2 pg/mL [33.0, 69.3] higher, respectively). Compared to hemodialysis patients, phosphate levels were lower for patients treated with NICHD (0.44 mg/dL [0.37, 0.52] lower), PD (0.15 mg/dL [0.12, 0.19] lower), or HHD (0.33 mg/dL [0.27, 0.40] lower). There were no clinically meaningful associations between dialysis modalities and concentrations of calcium or ALP.

CONCLUSION

In incident dialysis patients, compared to treatment with conventional in-center hemodialysis, treatments with other dialysis modalities with longer treatment times or higher frequency were associated with different patterns of serum phosphate and PTH. Given the recent growth in the use of dialysis modalities other than hemodialysis, the associations between the treatment and the CKD-MBD markers warrant additional study.

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and the Risks of Overall and Type-Specific Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population- and Sibling-Matched Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate associations between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and various incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) end points, considering the effects of the mediating role of type 2 diabetes and shared environmental/familial factors.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This population-based cohort study included 10,02,486 parous women in Denmark during 1978-2016. We used Cox regression to 1) examine the associations of GDM with overall and type-specific CVDs using full-cohort and sibling-matched analysis, 2) quantify the impact of type 2 diabetes after GDM using mediation analysis, and 3) assess whether these associations were modified by prepregnancy obesity or maternal history of CVD.

RESULTS

Women with a history of GDM had a 40% increased overall CVD risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40, 95% CI 1.35-1.45). Sibling-matched analyses yielded similar results (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.28-1.62). The proportion of association between GDM and overall CVD explained by subsequent type 2 diabetes was 23.3% (15.4-32.8%). We observed increased risks of specific CVDs, including 65% increased stroke risk and more than twofold risks for myocardial infarction, heart failure, and peripheral artery disease. The elevated overall risks were more pronounced among women with GDM and prepregnancy obesity or maternal history of CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

A history of GDM was associated with increased risks of overall and specific CVDs. Increased risks were partly explained by subsequent type 2 diabetes, and the need to identify other pathways remains important. Continuous monitoring of women with a history of GDM, especially those with prepregnancy obesity or maternal history of CVD, may provide better opportunities to reduce their cardiovascular risk.

Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and Nonatherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Hospitalizations for Triglycerides Across Chronic Kidney Disease Stages Among 2.9 Million US Veterans

Background

High triglycerides are associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risks. Among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), the association of elevated triglycerides with mortality is diminished and, thus, we investigated the relationship of triglycerides with ASCVD and non‐ASCVD hospitalizations across CKD stages.

Methods and Results

The cohort comprised 2 963 176 veterans who received care in 2004 to 2006 (baseline) and were followed up to 2014. Using Cox models, we evaluated baseline and time‐varying triglycerides with time to ASCVD or non‐ASCVD hospitalizations, stratified by baseline CKD stage, and adjusted for demographics and baseline or time‐updated clinical characteristics. The cohort mean±SD age was 63±14 years, with a baseline median (interquartile range) triglycerides level of 127 (87–189) mg/dL, and a quarter had prevalent CKD. There was a linear association between baseline triglycerides and ASCVD risk; however, the risk with high triglycerides ≥240 mg/dL attenuated with worsening CKD stages (reference: triglycerides 120 to <160 mg/dL). Baseline triglycerides were associated with a U‐shaped relationship for non‐ASCVD events in patients with CKD 3A to 3B. Patients with late‐stage CKD had lower to null relationships between baseline triglycerides and non‐ASCVD events. Time‐varying triglycerides associations with ASCVD were similar to baseline analyses. Yet, the time‐varying triglycerides relationship with non‐ASCVD events was inverse and linear, where elevated triglycerides were associated with lower risks.

Conclusions

Associations of higher triglycerides with ASCVD and non‐ASCVD events declined across advancing CKD stages, where a lower to null risk was observed in patients with advanced CKD. Studies are needed to examine the impact of advanced CKD on triglycerides metabolism and its association with outcomes in this high‐risk population.

Association of Pre-ESKD Hyponatremia with Post-ESKD Outcomes among Incident ESKD Patients

BACKGROUND

Hyponatremia is one of the most common electrolyte disturbances in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients and has been shown to be associated with higher mortality risk. However, the relationship between hyponatremia during late-stage CKD and the risk of poor outcomes after ESKD transition is unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 32,257 US veterans transitioning to ESKD from October 1, 2007 to March 30, 2015. We evaluated adjusted associations between the 3-month averaged pre-transition to ESKD serum sodium and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular (CV) mortality, infection-related mortalities, and hospitalization rate.

RESULTS

Cohort mean±SD serum sodium was 139 ± 3 mEq/L, mean age was 67 ± 11 years, 98% were male, and 32% were African American. Over a median follow-up of 702 days (296, 1301) there were 17,162 deaths. Compared to the reference of 135-<144 mEq/L, the lowest serum sodium group (<130 mEq/L) had a 54% higher all-cause mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34, 1.76) in the fully adjusted model. Associations were similar for CV and infection-related mortality, and hospitalization outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Hyponatremia prior to ESKD transition is associated with higher risk of all-cause, CV, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates after ESKD transition. Future studies evaluating management of pre-ESKD hyponatremia may be indicated to improve patient outcomes for those transitioning to ESKD.

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Bicarbonate with Post-ESRD Mortality in Patients with Incident ESRD

BACKGROUND

Serum bicarbonate or total carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations decline as chronic kidney disease (CKD) progresses and rise after dialysis initiation. While metabolic acidosis accelerates the progression of CKD and is associated with higher mortality among patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the association of CO2 concentrations before ESRD transition with post-ESRD mortality.

METHODS

A historical cohort from the Transition of Care in CKD (TC-CKD) study includes 85,505 veterans who transitioned to ESRD from October 1, 2007, through March 31, 2014. After 1,958 patients without follow-up data, 3 patients with missing date of birth, and 50,889 patients without CO2 6 months prior to ESRD transition were excluded, the study population includes 32,655 patients. Associations between CO2 concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and its rate of decline during the 12 months prior to ESRD transition and post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and non-CV mortality were examined by using hierarchical adjustment with Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The cohort was on average 68 ± 11 years old and included 29% Black veterans. Baseline concentrations of CO2 were 23 ± 4 mEq/L, and median (interquartile range) change in CO2 were -1.8 [-3.4, -0.2] mEq/L/year. High (≥28 mEq/L) and low (<18 mEq/L) CO2 concentrations showed higher adjusted mortality risk while there was no clear trend in the middle range. Consistent associations were observed irrespective of sodium bicarbonate use. There was also a U-shaped association between the change in CO2 and all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality with the lowest risk approximately at -2.0 and 0.0 mEq/L/year among sodium bicarbonate nonusers and users, respectively, and the highest mortality was among patients with decline in CO2 >4 mEq/L/year.

CONCLUSION

Both high and low pre-ESRD CO2 levels (≥28 and <18 mEq/L) during 6 months prior to dialysis transition and rate of CO2 decline >4 mEq/L/year during 1 year before dialysis initiation were associated with greater post-ESRD all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal management of CO2 in patients with advanced CKD stages transitioning to ESRD.

Vascular access placement and mortality in elderly incident hemodialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the preferred vascular access type in most hemodialysis patients. However, the optimal vascular access type in octogenarians and older (≥80 years) hemodialysis patients remains widely debated given their limited life expectancy and lower AVF maturation rates.

METHODS

Among incident hemodialysis patients receiving care in a large national dialysis organization during 2007-2011, we examined patterns of vascular access type conversion in 1 year following dialysis initiation in patients <80 versus ≥80 years of age. Among a subcohort of patients ≥80 years of age, we examined the association between vascular access type conversion and mortality using multivariable survival models.

RESULTS

In the overall cohort of 100 804 patients, the prevalence of AVF/arteriovenous graft (AVG) as the primary vascular access type increased during the first year of hemodialysis, but plateaued thereafter. Among 8356 patients ≥80 years of age and treated for >1 year, those with initial AVF/AVG use and placement of AVF from a central venous catheter (CVC) had lower mortality compared with patients with persistent CVC use. When the reference group was changed to patients who had AVF placement from a CVC in the first year of dialysis, those with initial AVF use had similar mortality. A longer duration of CVC use was associated with incrementally worse survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Among incident hemodialysis patients ≥80 years of age, placement of an AVF from a CVC within the first year of dialysis had similar mortality compared with initial AVF use. Our data suggest that initial CVC use with later placement of an AVF may be an acceptable option among elderly hemodialysis patients.

Statin Therapy Before Transition to End-Stage Renal Disease With Posttransition Outcomes

Background Although studies have shown that statin therapy in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease was associated with a lower risk of death, this was not observed in dialysis patients newly initiated on statins. It is unclear if statin therapy benefits administered during the predialysis period persist after transitioning to end-stage renal disease. Methods and Results In 47 720 veterans who transitioned to end-stage renal disease during 2007 to 2014, we examined the association of statin therapy use 1 year before transition with posttransition all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization incidence rates over the first 12 months of follow-up. Associations were examined using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard models and negative binomial regressions. Sensitivity analyses included propensity score and subgroup analyses. The cohort's mean± SD age was 71±11 years, and the cohort included 4% women, 23% blacks, and 66% diabetics. Over 12 months of follow-up, there were 13 411 deaths, with an incidence rate of 35.3 (95% CI , 34.7-35.8) deaths per 100 person-years. In adjusted models, statin therapy compared with no statin therapy was associated with lower risks of 12-month all-cause (hazard ratio [95% CI], 0.79 [0.76-0.82]) and cardiovascular (hazard ratio [95% CI ], 0.83 [0.78-0.88]) mortality, as well as with a lower rate of hospitalizations (incidence rate ratio [95% CI ], 0.89 [0.87-0.92]) after initiating dialysis. These lower outcome risks persisted across strata of clinical characteristics, and in propensity score analyses. Conclusions Among veterans with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease, treatment with statin therapy within the 1 year before transitioning to end-stage renal disease is associated with favorable early end-stage renal disease outcomes.

Abstract 104: Mortality Risk Across Chronic Kidney Disease Stages With Fibrate or Niacin Use Compared With No Fibrate or Niacin Therapy in Male US Veterans

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients have a higher cardiovascular (CV) disease and mortality risk, elevated triglycerides (TG), and decreased high density lipoproteins (HDL). Post-hoc analysis of trials examining use of fibrate (Fib) or niacin (Nia) therapy in lowering CV outcome risk have failed to show benefit in mild to moderate kidney disease. These analyses were criticized for their study design or small sample size. We sought to examine if Fib or Nia use is associated with lower mortality risk in US veterans across CKD stages.

Methods: In a retrospective cohort analysis, we identified male veterans who initiated Fib or Nia, with a high TG ≥150 mg/dL or low HDL ≤40 mg/dL between 2004-2014, and matched them on CKD stage and TG and HDL levels to unexposed men. We examined the association of Fib or Nia use (ref: unexposed) with 12-month all-cause mortality risk across CKD stage strata using an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. Propensity scores (PS) included baseline demographics, comorbidities and lab measures and high-dimensional propensity scores (HDPS) included over 100 covariates for each drug and stage analysis. PS and HDPS analyses included score adjustment and matching.

Results: The cohort had a mean±SD age of 64±12 years, and 30% had CKD stage 3A and higher. There were 69,295 Fib, 87,727 Nia, and 114,411 unexposed patients, respectively. Patient characteristics were similar across drug groups within each CKD stage. With covariate adjustment, both Fib and Nia were associated with a lower death risk compared to unexposed men in lower CKD stages (Figure A and B). Among those with CKD stage 4/5, Fib and Nia were associated with a higher death risk (HR[95%CI]: 1.43[1.15, 1.78] and 1.17[0.97,1.40], respectively). Those on Fib or Nia and in end-stage renal disease had a null association with mortality. Associations were similar for each CKD stage in PS and HDPS analyses, yet Fib and Nia were no longer associated with a lower death risk for CKD stage 3A and 3B patients.

Conclusion: Mortality associations of Fib and Nia among male veterans with high TG and low HDL varied across CKD stage, where CKD stage 4/5 patients had a higher mortality risk, even in PS and HDPS analyses. While covariate balance was met, further studies are needed to examine the mechanisms for this higher observed risk in late-stage CKD patients.

Primary causes of kidney disease and mortality in dialysis-dependent children

BACKGROUND

Congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) is associated with a slower progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in pre-dialysis patients. However, little is known about the associated mortality risks after transitioning to dialysis.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 0-21 year-old incident dialysis patients from the United States Renal Data System starting dialysis between 1995 and 2016. We examined the association of CAKUT vs. non-CAKUT with all-cause mortality, using Cox regression adjusted for case mix variables. We also examined the mortality risk associated with 14 non-CAKUT vs. CAKUT ESRD etiologies and under stratification by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

RESULTS

Among 25,761 patients, the median (interquartile range) age was 17 (11-19) years, and 4780 (19%) had CAKUT. CAKUT was associated with lower mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 0.72 (95%CI, 0.64-0.81) (reference: non-CAKUT). In age-stratified analyses, CAKUT vs. non-CAKUT aHRs (95%CI) were 0.66 (0.54-0.80), 0.56 (0.39-0.80), 0.66 (0.50-0.86), and 0.97 (0.80-1.18) among patients < 6, 6-< 13, 13-< 18, and ≥ 18 years at dialysis initiation, respectively. Among non-CAKUT ESRD etiologies, the risk of mortality associated with primary glomerulonephritis (aHR, 0.93; 95%CI 0.80-1.09) and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (aHR, 0.89; 95%CI, 0.75-1.04) were comparable or slightly lower compared to CAKUT, whereas most other primary causes were associated with higher mortality risk. While the CAKUT group had lower mortality risk compared to the non-CAKUT group patients with eGFR ≥5 mL/min/1.73m², CAKUT was associated with higher mortality in patients with eGFR < 5 mL/min/1.73 m².

CONCLUSIONS

CAKUT is associated with lower mortality among children < 18 years old, but showed comparable mortality with non-CAKUT among patients ≥ 18 years old. ESRD etiology should be considered in risk assessment for children initiating dialysis.

Red blood cell distribution width and mortality and hospitalizations in peritoneal dialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is found to be associated with different types of anemia and has recently been studied as a prognostic marker of mortality in hemodialysis patients. However, the relationship of RDW with mortality and hospitalization rate in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients is less known.

METHODS

Among 14 323 incident PD patients between 2007 and 2011 in the USA, we examined the relationship of baseline and time-varying RDW with the risk of mortality and time to first hospitalization using adjusted Cox models. In addition, we examined the relationship of baseline RDW and hospitalization rate using an adjusted negative-binomial regression model. Sensitivity analyses included competing risk models and subgroup analyses.

RESULTS

The study population comprised patients 56 ± 16 years of age, including 43% females, 23% African Americans and 62% diabetics, with a mean RDW of 15.3 ± 1.6%. In models adjusted for clinical characteristics and laboratory parameters, RDW exhibited an incremental relationship with the mortality risk, where RDW ≥16.5% had a 40% and 69% higher risk of death in baseline and time-varying analyses, respectively, compared with an RDW of 14.5-15.5%. Moreover, higher baseline RDW ≥16.5% was also associated with a higher risk of time to first hospitalization {hazard ratio 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.29]} and a higher rate of hospitalizations [incidence rate ratio 1.16 (95% CI 1.09-1.23)]. These results were consistent across numerous sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher RDW is associated with a higher risk of mortality and hospitalizations among incident PD patients. Further studies are needed to examine the mechanism behind RDW and adverse outcomes.

Serum Endocannabinoid Levels in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease

CONTEXT

Previous studies have shown that the endocannabinoid system plays a major role in energy metabolism through the actions of its main mediators, 2-arachidonoyl-sn-glycerol (2-AG) and anandamide (AEA).

OBJECTIVE

We examined serum levels of major endocannabinoid mediators and their association with clinical parameters in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

DESIGN AND SETTING

Serum concentrations of 2-AG and AEA were measured in patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) and controls, and correlations with various clinical and laboratory indices were examined. 2-AG was also measured in age and sex-matched healthy subjects for comparison of levels in patients undergoing MHD.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Serum 2-AG.

RESULTS

Serum 2-AG levels were significantly elevated in patients with ESRD compared with healthy controls. Higher levels of 2-AG were found in patients on MHD compared to healthy subjects, and similar findings were seen in a second set of subjects in independent analyses. Among 96 patients on MHD, 2-AG levels correlated significantly and positively with serum triglycerides (ρ = 0.43; P < 0.0001), body mass index (ρ = 0.40; P < 0.0001), and body anthropometric measures and negatively with serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ρ = -0.33; P = 0.001) following adjustment for demographic and clinical variables.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients on MHD, levels of serum 2-AG, a major endocannabinoid mediator, were increased. In addition, increasing serum 2-AG levels correlated with increased serum triglycerides and markers of body mass. Future studies will need to evaluate the potential mechanisms responsible for these findings.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Mortality Associated with Serum Potassium in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

BACKGROUND

Abnormalities in serum potassium are risk factors for sudden cardiac death and arrhythmias among dialysis patients. Although a previous study in hemodialysis patients has shown that race/ethnicity may impact the relationship between serum potassium and mortality, the relationship remains unclear among peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients where the dynamics of serum potassium is more stable.

METHODS

Among 17,664 patients who started PD between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2011 in a large US dialysis organization, we evaluated the association of serum potassium levels with all-cause and arrhythmia-related deaths across race/ethnicity using time-dependent Cox models with adjustments for demographics. We also used restricted cubic spline functions for serum potassium levels to explore non-linear associations.

RESULTS

Baseline serum potassium levels were the highest among Hispanics (4.2 ± 0.7 mEq/L) and lowest among non-Hispanic blacks (4.0 ± 0.7 mEq/L). Among 2,949 deaths during the follow-up of median 2.2 (interquartile ranges 1.3-3.2) years, 683 (23%) were arrhythmia-related deaths. Overall, both hyperkalemia and hypokalemia (i.e., serum potassium levels >5.0 and <3.5 mEq/L, respectively) were associated with higher all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality. In a stratified analysis according to race/ethnicity, the association of hypokalemia with all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality was consistent with an attenuation for arrhythmia-related mortality in non-Hispanic blacks. Hyperkalemia was associated with all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality in non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic blacks, but no association was observed in Hispanics.

CONCLUSION

Among incident PD patients, hypokalemia was consistently associated with all-cause and arrhythmia-related deaths irrespective of race/ethnicity. However, while hyperkalemia was associated with both death outcomes in non-Hispanic blacks and whites, it was not associated with either death outcome in Hispanic patients. Further studies are needed to demonstrate whether different strategies should be followed for the management of serum potassium levels according to race/ethnicity.

Precision Medicine and Personalized Management of Lipoprotein and Lipid Disorders in Chronic and End-Stage Kidney Disease

Precision medicine is an emerging field that calls for individualization of treatment strategies based on characteristics unique to each patient. In lipid management, current guidelines are driven mainly by clinical trial results that presently indicate that patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (CKD) should be treated with a β-hydroxy β-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase inhibitor, also known as statin therapy. For patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) being treated with hemodialysis, statin therapy has not been shown to successfully reduce poor outcomes in trials and therefore is not recommended. The two major guidelines dissent on whether statin therapy should be of moderate or high intensity in non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients, but often leave the prescribing clinician to make that decision. These decisions often are complicated by the increased concerns for adverse events such as myopathies in patients with advanced kidney disease and ESKD. In the future, there may be an opportunity to further identify CKD and ESKD patients who are more likely to benefit from lipid-modifying therapy as opposed to those who likely will suffer from its side effects using precision medicine tools. For now, data from genetics studies and subgroup analyses may provide insight for future research directions in this field and we review some of the work that has been published in this regard.

Estimated GFR at Dialysis Initiation and Mortality in Children and Adolescents

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at dialysis therapy initiation with mortality among adult dialysis patients has been greatly debated, with some studies showing no benefit from early dialysis therapy initiation. However, this association has not been well investigated in pediatric dialysis patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the mortality risk associated with eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation in children and adolescents with kidney failure.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

9,963 incident dialysis patients aged 1 to 17 years in the US Renal Data System registry (1995-2016).

PREDICTOR

eGFRs at dialysis therapy initiation calculated using the pediatric-specific bedside Schwartz equation (<5, 5-<7, 7-<9, 9-<12, and ≥12mL/min/1.73m²).

OUTCOME

Time to all-cause death.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for case-mix variables, height, body mass index, hemoglobin level, and serum albumin level.

RESULTS

Median eGFR was 7.8 (IQR, 5.6-10.5) mL/min/1.73m² and median age was 13 (IQR, 9-16) years. 696 deaths were observed during the median follow-up of 1.4 (IQR, 0.7-2.7) years, and overall crude mortality rate was 31 per 1,000 patient-years. There appeared to be a trend toward higher mortality risk across higher eGFRs at dialysis therapy initiation. Compared with eGFRs of 7 to <9mL/min/1.73m², eGFRs <5 and ≥12mL/min/1.73m² were associated with lower and higher mortality, with adjusted HRs of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.43-0.74) and 1.31 (95% CI, 1.05-1.65), respectively. In age-stratified analysis, there were consistent relationships among patients 6 years and older while the eGFR-mortality association was attenuated among patients younger than 6 years (P_interaction = 0.002).

LIMITATIONS

Possible errors in eGFRs due to methods for serum creatinine measurement. Unmeasured confounders related to eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation was associated with higher mortality risk. Further studies of eGFR at initiation are needed in pediatric dialysis patients, especially among those younger than 6 years.

Factors Associated With Withdrawal From Dialysis Therapy in Incident Hemodialysis Patients Aged 80 Years or Older

OBJECTIVES

Among kidney disease patients ≥80 years progressing to end-stage renal disease, there is growing interest in conservative nondialytic management approaches. However, among those who have initiated hemodialysis, little is known about the impact of withdrawal from dialysis on mortality, nor the patient characteristics associated with withdrawal from dialysis.

STUDY DESIGN

Historical cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We examined 133,162 incident hemodialysis patients receiving care within a large national dialysis organization from 2007 to 2011.

MEASURES

We identified patients who withdrew from dialysis, either as a listed cause of death or censor reason. Incidence rates and subdistribution hazard ratios for withdrawal from dialysis as well as 4 other censoring reasons were examined across age groups. In addition, demographic and clinical characteristics associated with withdrawal from dialysis therapy among patients ≥80 years old was assessed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among 17,296 patients aged ≥80 years, 10% of patients withdrew from dialysis. Duration from the last hemodialysis treatment to death was 10 [interquartile range 6-16] days in patients with available data. Withdrawal from dialysis was the second and third most common cause of death among patients aged ≥80 years and <80 years, respectively. Among patients ≥80 years, minorities were much less likely than non-Hispanic whites to stop dialysis. Other factors associated with higher odds of dialysis withdrawal included having a central venous catheter compared to an arteriovenous fistula at dialysis start, dementia, living in mid-west regions, and less favorable markers associated with malnutrition-inflammation-cachexia syndrome such as higher white blood cell counts and lower body mass index, albumin, and normalized protein catabolic rate.

CONCLUSION/IMPLICATIONS

Among very-elderly incident hemodialysis patients, dialysis therapy withdrawal exhibits wide variations across age, race and ethnicity, regions, cognitive status, dialysis vascular access, and nutritional status. Further studies examining implications of withdrawal from dialysis in older patients are warranted.

Vancomycin-Associated Acute Kidney Injury in a Large Veteran Population

BACKGROUND

To determine the association of vancomycin with acute kidney injury (AKI) in relation to its serum concentration value and to examine the risk of AKI in patients treated with vancomycin when compared with a matched cohort of patients receiving non-glycopeptide antibiotics (linezolid/daptomycin).

METHODS

From a cohort of > 3 million US veterans with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2, we identified 33,527 patients who received either intravenous vancomycin (n = 22,057) or non-glycopeptide antibiotics (linezolid/daptomycin, n = 11,470). We examined the association of the serum trough vancomycin level recorded within the first 48 h of administration with subsequent AKI in all patients treated with vancomycin and association of vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptide antibiotics use with the risk of incident AKI.

RESULTS

The overall multivariable adjusted ORs of AKI stages 1, 2, and 3 in patients on vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptides were 1.1 (1.1-1.2), 1.2 (1-1.4), and 1.4 (1.1-1.7), respectively. When examined in strata divided by vancomycin trough level, the odds of AKI were similar or lower in patients receiving vancomycin compared to non-glycopeptide antibiotics as long as serum vancomycin levels were ≤20 mg/L. However, in patients with serum vancomycin levels > 20 mg/L, the ORs of AKI stages 1, 2, and 3 in patients on vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptide antibiotics were 1.5 (1.4-1.7), 1.9 (1.5-2.3), and 2.7 (2-3.5), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Vancomycin use is associated with a higher risk of AKI when serum levels exceed > 20 mg/L.

Association of Pre-End-Stage Renal Disease Serum Albumin With Post-End-Stage Renal Disease Outcomes Among Patients Transitioning to Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

Serum albumin is a marker of malnutrition and inflammation and has been demonstrated as a strong predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. Yet, whether serum albumin levels in late-stage CKD are associated with adverse outcomes after the transition to ESRD is unknown. We hypothesize that lower levels and a decline in serum albumin in late-stage CKD are associated with higher risk of mortality and hospitalization rates 1 year after transition to ESRD.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 29,124 US veterans with advanced CKD transitioning to ESRD between 2007 and 2015. We evaluated the association of pre-ESRD (91 days before transition) serum albumin with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates as well as the association of 1-year pre-ESRD albumin slope and 12-month post-ESRD mortality using hierarchical multivariable adjustments.

RESULTS

There was a negative linear association between serum albumin and all-cause mortality, such that risk doubled (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.87, 2.28) for patients with the lowest serum albumin <2.8 g/dL (ref: ≥4.0 g/dL) after full adjustment. A consistent relationship was observed between serum albumin and cardiovascular and infection-related mortality, and hospitalization outcomes. An increase in serum albumin of >0.25 g/dL/year was associated with reduced mortality risk (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.91) compared with a slight decline in albumin (ref: >-0.25 to 0 g/dL/year), whereas a decline more than 0.5 g/dL/year was associated with a 55% higher risk in mortality (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.43, 1.68) in fully adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower pre-ESRD serum albumin was associated with higher post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates. Declining serum albumin levels in the pre-ESRD period were also associated with worse 12-month post-ESRD mortality.

Mean Corpuscular Volume and Mortality in Incident Hemodialysis Patients

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Anemia is common in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A proportion of patients present with macrocytic anemia, manifested by elevated mean corpuscular volume (MCV), which has been associated with worse outcomes in CKD patients. However, it is unknown whether elevated MCV is associated with higher mortality risk in incident hemodialysis (HD) patients.

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study examined all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality associations with both baseline and time-varying MCV in 109,501 incident HD patients using Cox proportional hazards models with 3 levels of hierarchical multivariable adjustment. Odds ratios of high versus low baseline MCV were evaluated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients was 65 ± 15 (standard deviation) years and the cohort was 44% female, 58% diabetic, and 31% African American. Higher MCV was associated with older age, female sex, non-Hispanic White race-ethnicity, alcohol consumption, and having a decreased albumin or protein intake. Patients with higher MCV levels (> 98 fL) had a higher all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality risk in both baseline and time varying models, and across all levels of adjustment. In the fully adjusted models, compared to a reference of MCV 92-< 94 fL, patients with a baseline MCV > 100+ fL had a 28% higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.22-1.34), 27% higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.18-1.36), and 18% higher risk of infectious mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.38). Associations of higher MCV with these adverse outcomes persisted across all examined subgroups of clinical characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher MCV was associated with higher all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality in HD patients. Further investigation is necessary to understand the underlying nature of the observed association.

Racial-ethnic differences in chronic kidney disease-mineral bone disorder in youth on dialysis

BACKGROUND

Studies in healthy pediatric populations and adults treated with dialysis demonstrate higher parathyroid hormone (PTH) and lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in African-Americans. Despite these findings, African-Americans on dialysis demonstrate greater bone strength and a decreased risk of fracture compared to the Caucasian dialysis population. The presence of such differences in children and young adult dialysis patients is unknown.

METHODS

Differences in the markers of mineral and bone metabolism (MBM) were assessed in 661 incident dialysis patients (aged 1 month to < 21 years). Racial-ethnic differences in PTH, calcium, phosphate, and total alkaline phosphatase (AP) activity were analyzed over the first year of dialysis using multivariate linear mixed models.

RESULTS

African-American race predicted 23% higher serum PTH (95% CI, 4.7-41.3%) when compared to Caucasian patients, while Hispanic ethnicity predicted 17.5% higher PTH (95% CI, 2.3-38%). Upon gender stratification, the differences in PTH were magnified in African-American and Hispanic females: 38% (95% CI, 14.8-69.8%) and 28.8% (95% CI, 4.7-54.9%) higher PTH compared to Caucasian females. Despite higher PTH values, African-American females persistently demonstrated up to 10.9% lower serum AP activity (95% CI, - 20.6-- 0.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

There are racial-ethnic differences in the markers of MBM. Higher PTH is seen in African-American and Hispanic children and young adults on dialysis with a magnification of this difference amongst the female population. There is a need to consider how factors like race, ethnicity, and gender impact the goal-targeted treatment of MBM disorders.

No Survival Benefit in Octogenarians and Nonagenarians with Extended Hemodialysis Treatment Time

BACKGROUND

The population of elderly end-stage renal disease patients initiating dialysis is rapidly growing. Although longer treatment is supposed to benefit for hemodialysis (HD) patients through more solute clearance and slower fluid removal, it is not yet clear how treatment session length affects mortality risk in octogenarians and nonagenarians.

METHODS

In a cohort of 112,026 incident HD patients between 2007 and 2011, we examined the association of treatment session length with all-cause mortality, adjusting for demographics and comorbid conditions. We also used restricted spline functions for age to evaluate continuous changes in the association of short (< 210 min) and extended (≥240 min) HD treatment (vs. 210 to < 240 min) with all-cause mortality over continuous age.

RESULTS

During the first 91 days of dialysis, patients aged ≥80 years tended to have the lowest treatment session length (median [interquartile range] 211 [193-230] min, r > 0.5). Longer treatment was associated with better survival in patients < 65 and 65 to < 80 years but not in octogenarians/nonagenarians. The association of extended treatment (≥240 min) with better survival was attenuated across age and not significant among patients aged ≥80 years with a hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 0.99-1.20). Shorter treatment sessions (< 210 min) was associated with higher mortality across all age groups.

CONCLUSION

Extended HD was not associated with lower mortality among octogenarians and nonagenarians, while it was associated with better survival among younger patients. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal treatment session length in elderly incident HD patients.

Association of Continuation of Statin Therapy Initiated Before Transition to Chronic Dialysis Therapy With Mortality After Dialysis Initiation

IMPORTANCE

De novo statin therapy in patients receiving chronic dialysis has failed to demonstrate cardiovascular (CV) protection in randomized clinical trials and thus is not recommended by current guidelines. However, current guidelines recommend the continuation of statin therapy if initiated before transition to dialysis.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the continuation of statins from advanced chronic kidney disease into the dialysis therapy period is associated with improved survival.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study of US veterans transitioning to dialysis between October 1, 2007, and March 30, 2014. Participants were 14 298 US veterans who were receiving statins during the 12-month period before transition to dialysis and survived the first year of dialysis. Data analysis was conducted between August 2, 2017, and June 28, 2018.

EXPOSURES

Patients were characterized as statin continuers (n = 11 936) if statin therapy was continued for at least 6 months during the first year after dialysis initiation and as statin discontinuers (n = 2362) if therapy with statins was stopped or no statin therapy was received in the year posttransition.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Associations of statin continuation with 12-month all-cause mortality and CV mortality after 1 year of dialysis initiation were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for demographics and comorbidities.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age of the cohort was 71 (10) years; the cohort was 96.7% (n = 13 828) male and 21.3% (n = 3043) African American, and 74.6% (n = 10 627) had diabetes. The 12-month all-cause mortality and CV mortality rates after 1 year of transition to dialysis were lower in statin continuers: deaths per 100 person-years were 21.9 (95% CI, 20.9-22.8) and 8.1 (95% CI, 7.5-8.6) in statin continuers vs 30.3 (95% CI, 27.8-32.8) and 9.8 (95% CI, 8.3-11.2) in statin discontinuers. Moreover, lower all-cause mortality and CV mortality risks with statin continuation persisted in adjusted analyses, with hazard ratios of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.79) and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.69-0.96), respectively. Associations were similar across subgroups, including age, race, and diabetes status.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, the continuation of statin therapy after transition to dialysis was associated with reduced all-cause mortality and CV mortality. The study findings suggest that future studies are needed to examine potential CV benefits of continuing statin therapy after dialysis initiation.

Development and Validation of Prediction Scores for Early Mortality at Transition to Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk prediction model that would help individualize treatment and improve the shared decision-making process between clinicians and patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We developed a risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year of dialysis based on pre-end-stage renal disease characteristics in a cohort of 35,878 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease who transitioned to dialysis treatment between October 1, 2007, and March 31, 2014 and then externally validated this tool among 4284 patients in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) health care system who transitioned to dialysis treatment between January 1, 2007, and September 30, 2015.

RESULTS

To ensure model goodness of fit, 2 separate models were selected for patients whose last estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before dialysis initiation was less than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher. Model discrimination in the internal validation cohort of veterans resulted in C statistics of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.72) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) among patients with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher, respectively. In the KPSC external validation cohort, the developed risk score exhibited C statistics of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in men and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) in women with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) in men and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in women with eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher.

CONCLUSION

A new risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year after transition to dialysis (available at www.DialysisScore.com) was developed in the large national Veterans Affairs cohort and validated with good performance in the racially, ethnically, and gender diverse KPSC cohort. This risk prediction tool will help identify high-risk populations and guide management strategies at the transition to dialysis.

Predialysis Kidney Function and Its Rate of Decline Predict Mortality and Hospitalizations After Starting Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether kidney function level and its rate of decline in the immediate predialysis period among veterans transitioning to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) predict postdialysis mortality and hospitalization.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In 19,985 veterans transitioning to ESRD during the period October 1, 2007, to March 30, 2014, we examined kidney function and its slope over the final year of the pre-ESRD(prelude) period. Two categories of low vs high estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, dichotomized at 10 mL/min/1.73 m²) and slow vs fast slope (dichotomized at -10 mL/min/1.73 m²/y) were combined into 4 groups. Their associations with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality and hospitalization rates were examined in adjusted models accounting for clinical characteristics and laboratory measurements at transition.

RESULTS

Patients, 66±11 years old, and 34% blacks, had a median (interquartile range) eGFR at transition and slope of 9.7 (7.1-13.3) mL/min/1.73 m² and -10.5 (-18.8 to -5.9) mL/min/1.73 m²/y, respectively. Patients with a low eGFR and slow slope had the lowest 12-month all-cause and CV mortality risks and hospitalization rate. Conversely, patients with high eGFR and fast slope had the highest risk of all-cause and CV mortality and hospitalization rate compared with patients with a low eGFR and slow slope. This relationship persisted in sensitivity analyses, including propensity scoring.

CONCLUSION

A kidney profile of a low eGFR and slow slope in the prelude period is associated with favorable early dialysis outcomes in veteran patients. Trials to examine a more conservative approach to dialysis are warranted.

Hypoglycemia-Related Hospitalizations and Mortality Among Patients With Diabetes Transitioning to Dialysis

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Diabetic patients with declining kidney function are at heightened risk for hypoglycemia. We sought to determine whether hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations in the interval before dialysis therapy initiation are associated with post-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) mortality among incident patients with ESRD with diabetes.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

US veterans from the national Veterans Affairs database with diabetes and chronic kidney disease transitioning to dialysis therapy from October 2007 to September 2011.

EXPOSURE

Hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations during the pre-ESRD period and antidiabetic medication regimens.

OUTCOME

The outcome of post-ESRD all-cause mortality was evaluated relative to pre-ESRD hypoglycemia. The outcome of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization was evaluated relative to antidiabetic medication regimens.

ANALYTIC APPROACH

We examined whether the occurrence and frequency of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations are associated with post-ESRD mortality using Cox regression models adjusted for case-mix covariates. In a subcohort of patients prescribed 0 to 2 oral antidiabetic drugs and/or insulin, we examined the 12 most commonly prescribed antidiabetic medication regimens and risk for pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization using logistic regression models adjusted for case-mix covariates.

RESULTS

Among 30,156 patients who met eligibility criteria, the occurrence of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization(s) was associated with higher post-ESRD mortality risk: adjusted HR (aHR), 1.25; 95% CI, 1.17-1.34 (reference group: no hypoglycemia hospitalization). Increasing frequency of hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations was independently associated with incrementally higher mortality risk: aHRs of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.12-1.30), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82), and 2.07 (95% CI, 1.46-2.95) for 1, 2, and 3 or more hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations, respectively (reference group: no hypoglycemia hospitalization). Compared with patients who were prescribed neither oral antidiabetic drugs nor insulin, medication regimens that included sulfonylureas and/or insulin were associated with higher risk for hypoglycemia.

LIMITATIONS

Residual confounding cannot be excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

Among incident patients with ESRD with diabetes, a dose-dependent relationship between frequency of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations and post-ESRD mortality was observed. Further study of diabetic management strategies that prevent hypoglycemia as patients with chronic kidney disease transition to ESRD are warranted.

Dialysis Provider and Outcomes among United States Veterans Who Transition to Dialysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Veterans with ESKD initiate dialysis under the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), an integrated health system, or are outsourced to non-VHA providers. It is unknown whether outcomes differ according to their dialysis provider at initiation. We sought to evaluate the association between dialysis provider and mortality and hospitalization among United States veterans initiating dialysis.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Among 68,727 United States veterans who initiated dialysis in 2007-2014, we examined the association of dialysis provider (VHA versus non-VHA) at initiation with mortality and hospitalization rates in the first 12 months post-initiation. Associations were examined across adjusted models, accounting for demographics and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Patients were 72±11 years, 5% were women, 24% were black, and 10% (n=7584) initiated at VHA dialysis centers. VHA dialysis center patients were younger, more likely to be black, had fewer cardiovascular comorbidities, and lower eGFR at dialysis initiation. VHA provider patients were more likely to be hospitalized in the first 12 months (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.14), but had lower all-cause mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 0.93) in fully adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

Veteran patients initiating dialysis with a VHA dialysis provider appear to have a lower mortality risk but higher hospitalization rates than veterans initiating dialysis at non-VHA dialysis units.

Obesity Paradox in Advanced Kidney Disease: From Bedside to the Bench

While obesity is associated with a variety of complications including diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and premature death, observational studies have also found that obesity and increasing body mass index (BMI) can be linked with improved survival in certain patient populations, including those with conditions marked by protein-energy wasting and dysmetabolism that ultimately lead to cachexia. The latter observations have been reported in various clinical settings including end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and have been described as the "obesity paradox" or "reverse epidemiology", engendering controversy. While some have attributed the obesity paradox to residual confounding in an effort to "debunk" these observations, recent experimental discoveries provide biologically plausible mechanisms in which higher BMI can be linked to longevity in certain groups of patients. In addition, sophisticated epidemiologic methods that extensively adjusted for confounding have found that the obesity paradox remains robust in ESRD. Furthermore, novel hypotheses suggest that weight loss and cachexia can be linked to adverse outcomes including cardiomyopathy, arrhythmias, sudden death and poor outcomes. Therefore, the survival benefit observed in obese ESRD patients can at least partly be derived from mechanisms that protect against inefficient energy utilization, cachexia and protein-energy wasting. Given that in ESRD patients, treatment of traditional risk factors has failed to alter outcomes, detailed translational studies of the obesity paradox may help identify innovative pathways that can be targeted to improve survival. We have reviewed recent clinical evidence detailing the association of BMI with outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease, including ESRD, and discuss potential mechanisms underlying the obesity paradox with potential for clinical applicability.

Impact of Obesity on Modality Longevity, Residual Kidney Function, Peritonitis, and Survival Among Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of severe obesity, often considered a contraindication to peritoneal dialysis (PD), has increased over time. However, mortality has decreased more rapidly in the PD population than the hemodialysis (HD) population in the United States. The association between obesity and clinical outcomes among patients with end-stage kidney disease remains unclear in the current era.

STUDY DESIGN

Historical cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

15,573 incident PD patients from a large US dialysis organization (2007-2011).

PREDICTOR

Body mass index (BMI).

OUTCOMES

Modality longevity, residual renal creatinine clearance, peritonitis, and survival.

RESULTS

Higher BMI was significantly associated with shorter time to transfer to HD therapy (P for trend < 0.001), longer time to kidney transplantation (P for trend < 0.001), and, with borderline significance, more frequent peritonitis-related hospitalization (P for trend = 0.05). Compared with lean patients, obese patients had faster declines in residual kidney function (P for trend < 0.001) and consistently achieved lower total Kt/V over time (P for trend < 0.001) despite greater increases in dialysis Kt/V (P for trend < 0.001). There was a U-shaped association between BMI and mortality, with the greatest survival associated with the BMI range of 30 to < 35kg/m2 in the case-mix adjusted model. Compared with matched HD patients, PD patients had lower mortality in the BMI categories of < 25 and 25 to < 35kg/m2 and had equivalent survival in the BMI category ≥ 35kg/m2 (P for interaction = 0.001 [vs < 25 kg/m2]). This attenuation in survival difference among patients with severe obesity was observed only in patients with diabetes, but not those without diabetes.

LIMITATIONS

Inability to evaluate causal associations. Potential indication bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas obese PD patients had higher risk for complications than nonobese PD patients, their survival was no worse than matched HD patients.

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Calcium With Post-ESRD Mortality Among Incident ESRD Patients: A Cohort Study

Albumin-corrected serum calcium (cSCa) decline at late stages of chronic kidney disease and rise after dialysis initiation. Although hypercalcemia is associated with higher mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the impact of pre-ESRD cSCa on post-ESRD mortality. Therefore, we used a large national cohort of 21,826 US veterans who transitioned to dialysis in all US Department of Veterans Affairs health care facilities over 2009 to 2014 to examine the associations with all-cause and cause-specific post-ESRD mortality of (1) cSCa concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and (2) its rate of decline during the last 12 months before dialysis initiation. Mean concentrations and median rate of decline of cSCa were 9.3 ± 0.7 mg/dL and -0.15 (interquartile range -0.39 to 0.07) mg/dL/year, respectively. A total of 9596 patients died during the follow-up period (mean 1.9 years; total 41,541 patient-years) with an incidence rate of 23.1 per 100 patient-years. There was an independent linear association between higher cSCa with higher mortality (p_trend < 0.001). The mortality risk associated with cSCa ≥9.0 mg/dL was attenuated among active vitamin D users (p_interaction < 0.001). Patients with faster decline in cSCa showed lower mortality irrespective of baseline cSCa concentrations. These cSCa-mortality associations were stronger for noncardiovascular versus cardiovascular death. In conclusion, lower pre-ESRD cSCa and faster decline in cSCa were consistently and linearly associated with better post-ESRD survival among US veterans, especially for noncardiovascular death. Further studies are needed to determine if correcting hypocalcemia is beneficial or harmful and which intervention is preferred when indicated among patients transitioning to ESRD. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Association of body weight changes with mortality in incident hemodialysis patients

Background

Incident hemodialysis patients may experience rapid weight loss in the first few months of starting dialysis. However, trends in weight changes over time and their associations with survival have not yet been characterized in this population.

Methods

In a large contemporary US cohort of 58 106 patients who initiated hemodialysis during 1 January 2007-31 December 2011 and survived the first year of dialysis, we observed trends in weight changes during the first year of treatment and then examined the association of post-dialysis weight changes with all-cause mortality.

Results

Patients' post-dialysis weights rapidly decreased and reached a nadir at the 5th month of dialysis with an average decline of 2% from baseline, whereas obese patients (body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 ) did not reach a nadir and lost ∼3.8% of their weight by the 12th month. Compared with the reference group (-2 to 2% changes in weight), the death hazard ratios (HRs) of patients with -6 to -2% and greater than or equal to -6% weight loss during the first 5 months were 1.08 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.14) and 1.14 (1.07-1.22), respectively. Moreover, the death HRs with 2-6% and ≥6% weight gain during the 5th to 12th months were 0.91 (0.85-0.97) and 0.92 (0.86-0.99), respectively.

Conclusions

In patients who survive the first year of hemodialysis, a decline in post-dialysis weight is observed and reaches a nadir at the 5th month. An incrementally larger weight loss during the first 12 months is associated with higher death risk, whereas weight gain is associated with greater survival during the 5th to 12th month but not in the first 5 months of dialysis therapy.

Association of Pre-End-Stage Renal Disease Hemoglobin with Early Dialysis Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Incident hemodialysis patients have a high mortality risk within the first months after dialysis initiation. Pre-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) factors like anemia management may impact early post-ESRD outcomes. Therefore, we evaluated the impact of pre-ESRD hemoglobin (Hgb) and pre-ESRD Hgb slope on post-ESRD mortality and hospitalization outcomes.

METHODS

The study included 31,472 veterans transitioning to ESRD. Using Cox and negative binomial regression models, we evaluated the association of pre-ESRD Hgb and Hgb slope with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization rates using 4 levels of hierarchical multivariable adjustment, including erythropoietin use and kidney decline in slope models.

RESULTS

The cohort was 2% female, 30% African-American, and on average 68 ± 11 years old. Compared to Hgb 10-< 11 g/dL, both low (< 10 g/dL) and high (≥12 g/dL) levels were associated with higher all-cause mortality after full adjustment (HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.15-1.35] and 1.09 [95% CI 1.02-1.18], respectively). Similarly, Hgb exhibited a U-shaped association with CV mortality, while only lower Hgb was associated with a higher hospitalization rate. Neither an annual pre-ESRD decline in Hgb nor increase was associated with higher post-ESRD mortality risk after adjustment for kidney decline. However, we observed a modest J-shaped association between pre-ESRD Hgb slope and post-ESRD hospitalization rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower and higher pre-ESRD Hgb levels are associated with a higher risk of early post-ESRD mortality, while there was no association between the pre-ESRD slope and mortality. An increase in pre-ESRD Hgb slope was associated with higher risk of post-ESRD hospitalization. Additional studies aimed at anemia management prior to ESRD transition are warranted.

Weekly Standard Kt/Vurea and Clinical Outcomes in Home and In-Center Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Patients undergoing hemodialysis with a frequency other than thrice weekly are not included in current clinical performance metrics for dialysis adequacy. The weekly standard Kt/Vurea incorporates treatment frequency, but there are limited data on its association with clinical outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We used multivariable regression to examine the association of dialysis standard Kt/Vurea with BP and metabolic control (serum potassium, calcium, bicarbonate, and phosphorus) in patients incidental to dialysis treated with home (n=2373) or in-center hemodialysis (n=109,273). We further used Cox survival models to examine the association of dialysis standard Kt/Vurea with mortality, hospitalization, and among patients on home hemodialysis, transfer to in-center hemodialysis.

RESULTS

After adjustment for potential confounders, patients with dialysis standard Kt/Vurea <2.1 had higher BPs compared with patients with standard Kt/Vurea 2.1 to <2.3 (3.4 mm Hg higher [P<0.001] for home hemodialysis and 0.9 mm Hg higher [P<0.001] for in-center hemodialysis). There were no clinically meaningful associations between dialysis standard Kt/Vurea and markers of metabolic control, irrespective of dialysis modality. There was no association between dialysis standard Kt/Vurea and risk for mortality, hospitalization, or transfer to in-center hemodialysis among patients undergoing home hemodialysis. Among patients on in-center hemodialysis, dialysis standard Kt/Vurea <2.1 was associated with higher risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.14) and standard Kt/Vurea ≥2.3 was associated with lower risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.94 to 0.99) for death compared with standard Kt/Vurea 2.1 to <2.3. Additional analyses limited to patients with available data on residual kidney function showed similar relationships of dialysis and total (dialysis plus kidney) standard Kt/Vurea with outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Current targets for standard Kt/Vurea have limited utility in identifying individuals at increased risk for adverse clinical outcomes for those undergoing home hemodialysis but may enhance risk stratification for in-center hemodialysis.

Association between vascular access creation and deceleration of estimated glomerular filtration rate decline in late-stage chronic kidney disease patients transitioning to end-stage renal disease

Background

Prior studies have suggested that arteriovenous fistula (AVF) or graft (AVG) creation may be associated with slowing of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline. It is unclear if this is attributable to the physiological benefits of a mature access on systemic circulation versus confounding factors.

Methods

We examined a nationwide cohort of 3026 US veterans with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) transitioning to dialysis between 2007 and 2011 who had a pre-dialysis AVF/AVG and had at least three outpatient eGFR measurements both before and after AVF/AVG creation. Slopes of eGFR were estimated using mixed-effects models adjusted for fixed and time-dependent confounders, and compared separately for the pre- and post-AVF/AVG period overall and in patients stratified by AVF/AVG maturation. In all, 3514 patients without AVF/AVG who started dialysis with a catheter served as comparators, using an arbitrary 6-month index date before dialysis initiation to assess change in eGFR slopes.

Results

Of the 3026 patients with AVF/AVG (mean age 67 years, 98% male, 75% diabetic), 71% had a mature AVF/AVG at dialysis initiation. eGFR decline accelerated in the last 6 months prior to dialysis in patients with a catheter (median, from -6.0 to -16.3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, P < 0.001), while a significant deceleration of eGFR decline was seen after vascular access creation in those with AVF/AVG (median, from -5.6 to -4.1 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, P < 0.001). Findings were independent of AVF/AVG maturation status and were robust in adjusted models.

Conclusions

The creation of pre-dialysis AVF/AVG appears to be associated with eGFR slope deceleration and, consequently, may delay the onset of dialysis initiation in advanced CKD patients.

Association of Ultrafiltration Rate with Mortality in Incident Hemodialysis Patients

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Ultrafiltration rate (UFR) appears to be associated with mortality in prevalent hemodialysis (HD) patients. However, the association of UFR with mortality in incident HD patients remains unknown.

METHODS

We examined a US cohort of 110,880 patients who initiated HD from 2007 to 2011. Baseline UFR was divided into 5 groups (<4, 4 to <6, 6 to <8, 8 to <10, and ≥10 mL/h/kg body weight [BW]). We examined predictors of higher baseline UFR using logistic regression and the association of baseline UFR and all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality using Cox proportional hazard models with adjustments for demographics, comorbidities, and markers of malnutrition-inflammation-cachexia syndrome.

RESULTS

Patients were 63 ± 15 years, with 43% women, 32% African Americans, and had a mean baseline UFR of 7.5 ± 3.1 mL/h/kg BW. In the fully adjusted logistic regression models, factors associated with higher UFR (≥7.5 mL/h/kg BW) included Hispanic ethnicity, diabetes, and higher dietary protein intake. There was a linear association between UFR and all-cause and CV mortality, where UFR ≥10 mL/h/kg BW (reference UFR 6-<8 mL/h/kg BW) conferred the highest risk in both unadjusted (HR 1.15 [95% CI 1.10-1.19]) and adjusted models (HR 1.23 [95% CI 1.16-1.31]). The linear association with all-cause mortality remained consistent across strata of age, urine volume, and treatment time.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher UFR is independently associated with higher all-cause and CV mortality in incident HD patients. Clinical trials are warranted to examine the effects of lowering UFR on outcomes.

Association of serum vitamin B12 and folate with mortality in incident hemodialysis patients

Background

Vitamin B12 (B12) and folate are essential vitamins that play important roles in physiological processes. In the general population, many studies have evaluated the association of these vitamins with clinical outcomes, yet this association in hemodialysis (HD) patients remains unclear.

Methods

We examined the association of serum folate and B12 with mortality in a 5-year cohort of 9517 (folate) and 12 968 (B12) HD patients using Cox models with hierarchical adjustment for sociodemographics, comorbidities, and laboratory variables associated with the malnutrition and inflammation complex syndrome. The associations of baseline B12 and folate (separately) with all-cause mortality were evaluated across five categories of B12 [<400 (reference), 400-<550, 550-<650, 650-<750 and ≥750 pg/mL] and folate [<6.2, 6.2-<8.4, 8.4-<11 (reference), 11-<14.3 and ≥14.3 ng/mL].

Results

The study cohort with B12 measurements had a mean ± standard deviation age of 63 ± 15 years, among whom 43% were female, 33% were African-American, and 57% were diabetic. Higher B12 concentrations ≥550 pg/mL were associated with a higher risk of mortality after adjusting for sociodemographic and laboratory variables. However, only lower serum folate concentrations <6.2 ng/mL were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality when adjusted for sociodemographic variables [adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence-interval): 1.18 (1.03-1.35)].

Conclusions

Higher B12 concentrations are associated with higher all-cause mortality in HD patients independent of sociodemographics and laboratory variables, whereas lower folate concentrations were associated with higher all-cause mortality after accounting for sociodemographic variables. Further studies are warranted to determine the optimal B12 and folate level targets in this population.

Lymphocyte Cell Ratios and Mortality among Incident Hemodialysis Patients

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) have been previously suggested as oncologic prognostication markers. These are associated with malnutrition and inflammation, and hence, may provide benefit in predicting mortality among hemodialysis patients.

METHODS

Among 108,548 incident hemodialysis patients in a large U.S. dialysis organization (2007-2011), we compared the mortality predictability of NLR and PLR with baseline and time-varying covariate Cox models using the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), net reclassification index (NRI), and adjusted R2.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 1.4 years, 28,618 patients died. Median (IQR) NLR and PLR at baseline were 3.64 (2.68-5.00) and 179 (136-248) respectively. NLR was associated with higher mortality, which appeared stronger in the time-varying versus baseline model. PLR exhibited a J-shaped association with mortality in both models. NLR provided better mortality prediction in addition to demographics, comorbidities, and serum albumin; ΔAUROC and NRI for 1-year mortality (95% CI) were 0.010 (0.009-0.012) and 6.4% (5.5-7.3%) respectively. Additionally, adjusted R2 (95% CI) for the Cox model increased from 0.269 (0.262-0.276) to 0.283 (0.276-0.290) in the non-time-varying model and from 0.467 (0.461-0.472) to 0.505 (0.500-0.512) in the time-varying model. There was little to no benefit of adding PLR to predict mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

High NLR in incident hemodialysis patients predicted mortality, especially in the short-term period. NLR, but not PLR, added modest benefit in predicting mortality along with demographics, comorbidities, and serum albumin, and should be included in prognostication approaches.

Modeling longitudinal data and its impact on survival in observational nephrology studies: tools and considerations

Nephrologists and kidney disease researchers are often interested in monitoring how patients' clinical and laboratory measures change over time, what factors may impact these changes, and how these changes may lead to differences in morbidity, mortality, and other outcomes. When longitudinal data with repeated measures over time in the same patients are available, there are a number of analytical approaches that could be employed to describe the trends and changes in these measures, and to explore the associations of these changes with outcomes. Researchers may choose a streamlined and simplified analytic approach to examine trajectories with subsequent outcomes such as estimating deltas (subtraction of the last observation from the first observation) or estimating per patient slopes with linear regression. Conversely, they could more fully address the data complexity by using a longitudinal mixed model to estimate change as a predictor or employ a joint model, which can simultaneously model the longitudinal effect and its impact on an outcome such as survival. In this review, we aim to assist nephrologists and clinical researchers by reviewing these approaches in modeling the association of longitudinal change in a marker with outcomes, while appropriately considering the data complexity. Namely, we will discuss the use of simplified approaches for creating predictor variables representing change in measurements including deltas and patient slopes, as well more sophisticated longitudinal models including joint models, which can be used in addition to simplified models based on the indications and objectives of the study as warranted.

Seasonal variations in transition, mortality and kidney transplantation among patients with end-stage renal disease in the USA

Background

Seasonal variations may exist in transitioning to dialysis, kidney transplantation and related outcomes among end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. Elucidating these variations may have major clinical and healthcare policy implications for better resource allocation across seasons.

Methods

Using the United States Renal Data System database from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2013, we calculated monthly counts of transitioning to dialysis or first transplantation and deaths. Crude monthly transition fraction was defined as the number of new ESRD patients divided by all ESRD patients on the first day of each month. Similar fractions were calculated for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and transplantation.

Results

The increasing trend of the annual transition to ESRD plateaued during 2009-2012 (n = 126 264), and dropped drastically in 2013 (n = 117 372). Independent of secular trends, monthly transition to ESRD was lowest in July (1.65%) and highest in January (1.97%) of each year. All-cause, cardiovascular and infectious mortalities were lowest in July or August (1.32, 0.58 and 0.15%, respectively) and highest in January (1.56, 0.71 and 0.19%, respectively). Kidney transplantation was highest in June (0.33%), and this peak was mainly attributed to living kidney transplantation in summer months. Transplant failure showed a similar seasonal variation to naïve transition, peaking in January (0.65%) and nadiring in September (0.56%).

Conclusions

Transitioning to ESRD and adverse events among ESRD people were more frequent in winter and less frequent in summer, whereas kidney transplantation showed the reverse trend. The potential causes and implications of these consistent seasonal variations warrant more investigation.

Warfarin Use and Increased Mortality in End-Stage Renal Disease

BACKGROUND

Controversy exists regarding the benefits and risks of warfarin therapy in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. In this study, we assessed mortality and cardiovascular outcomes associated with warfarin treatment in patients with stages 3-5 CKD and ESRD admitted to the University of California-Irvine Medical Center.

METHODS

In a retrospective matched cohort study, we identified 59 adult patients with stages 3-6 CKD initiated on warfarin during the period 2011-2013, and 144 patients with stages 3-6 CKD who had indications for anticoagulation therapy but were not initiated on warfarin. All-cause mortality risk associated with warfarin treatment was estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, and the risk of significant bleeding and major adverse cardiovascular events were analyzed with Poisson regression analysis. Adjustment models were used to account for age, gender, diabetes mellitus, use of antiplatelet agents, and preexisting cardiovascular disease, and stratified by pre-dialysis CKD stages 3-5 vs. ESRD.

FINDINGS

During 5.8 years of follow-up, unadjusted mortality risk was higher in CKD patients on warfarin therapy (hazard ratio [HR] 2.34 with 95% CI 1.25-4.39; p < 0.01). After multivariate adjustment and stratification by CKD stage, the mortality risk remained significant in ESRD patients receiving warfarin (HR 6.62 with 95% CI 2.56-17.16; p < 0.001). Furthermore, adjusted rates of significant bleeding (incident rate ratio, IRR 3.57 with 95% CI 1.51-8.45; p < 0.01) and myocardial infarction (IRR 4.20 with 95% CI 1.78-9.91; p < 0.01) were higher among warfarin users. No differences in rates of ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes were found between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Warfarin use was associated with several-fold higher risk of death, bleeding, and myocardial infarction in dialysis patients. If additional studies suggest similar associations, the use of warfarin in dialysis patients warrants immediate reconsideration.