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O'Connor LMJ, Cosentino F, Harfoot MBJ, Maiorano L, Mancino C, Pollock LJ, Thuiller W. Vulnerability of terrestrial vertebrate food webs to anthropogenic threats in Europe. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17253. [PMID: 38519878 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2023] [Revised: 02/07/2024] [Accepted: 02/10/2024] [Indexed: 03/25/2024]
Abstract
Vertebrate species worldwide are currently facing significant declines in many populations. Although we have gained substantial knowledge about the direct threats that affect individual species, these threats only represent a fraction of the broader vertebrate threat profile, which is also shaped by species interactions. For example, threats faced by prey species can jeopardize the survival of their predators due to food resource scarcity. Yet, indirect threats arising from species interactions have received limited investigation thus far. In this study, we investigate the indirect consequences of anthropogenic threats on biodiversity in the context of European vertebrate food webs. We integrated data on trophic interactions among over 800 terrestrial vertebrates, along with their associated human-induced threats. We quantified and mapped the vulnerability of various components of the food web, including species, interactions, and trophic groups to six major threats: pollution, agricultural intensification, climate change, direct exploitation, urbanization, and invasive alien species and diseases. Direct exploitation and agricultural intensification were two major threats for terrestrial vertebrate food webs: affecting 34% and 31% of species, respectively, they threaten 85% and 69% of interactions in Europe. By integrating network ecology with threat impact assessments, our study contributes to a better understanding of the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise M J O'Connor
- Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Grenoble, France
- Biodiversity and Natural Resources Programme, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Francesca Cosentino
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", University of Rome "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy
| | - Michael B J Harfoot
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK
- Vizzuality, Madrid, Spain
| | - Luigi Maiorano
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", University of Rome "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy
| | - Chiara Mancino
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", University of Rome "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy
| | - Laura J Pollock
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Grenoble, France
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Newbold T, Tittensor DP, Harfoot MBJ, Scharlemann JPW, Purves DW. Non-linear changes in modelled terrestrial ecosystems subjected to perturbations. Sci Rep 2020; 10:14051. [PMID: 32820228 PMCID: PMC7441154 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-70960-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2019] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Perturbed ecosystems may undergo rapid and non-linear changes, resulting in 'regime shifts' to an entirely different ecological state. The need to understand the extent, nature, magnitude and reversibility of these changes is urgent given the profound effects that humans are having on the natural world. General ecosystem models, which simulate the dynamics of ecosystems based on a mechanistic representation of ecological processes, provide one novel way to project ecosystem changes across all scales and trophic levels, and to forecast impact thresholds beyond which irreversible changes may occur. We model ecosystem changes in four terrestrial biomes subjected to human removal of plant biomass, such as occurs through agricultural land-use change. We find that irreversible, non-linear responses commonly occur where removal of vegetation exceeds 80% (a level that occurs across nearly 10% of the Earth's land surface), especially for organisms at higher trophic levels and in less productive ecosystems. Very large, irreversible changes to ecosystem structure are expected at levels of vegetation removal akin to those in the most intensively used real-world ecosystems. Our results suggest that the projected twenty-first century rapid increases in agricultural land conversion may lead to widespread trophic cascades and in some cases irreversible changes to ecosystem structure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim Newbold
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK. .,Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK.,Biology Department, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Michael B J Harfoot
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Jörn P W Scharlemann
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK.,School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QG, UK
| | - Drew W Purves
- Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, CB1 2FB, UK.,DeepMind, 6 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG, UK
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Enquist BJ, Abraham AJ, Harfoot MBJ, Malhi Y, Doughty CE. The megabiota are disproportionately important for biosphere functioning. Nat Commun 2020; 11:699. [PMID: 32019918 PMCID: PMC7000713 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-14369-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2019] [Accepted: 12/03/2019] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
A prominent signal of the Anthropocene is the extinction and population reduction of the megabiota—the largest animals and plants on the planet. However, we lack a predictive framework for the sensitivity of megabiota during times of rapid global change and how they impact the functioning of ecosystems and the biosphere. Here, we extend metabolic scaling theory and use global simulation models to demonstrate that (i) megabiota are more prone to extinction due to human land use, hunting, and climate change; (ii) loss of megabiota has a negative impact on ecosystem metabolism and functioning; and (iii) their reduction has and will continue to significantly decrease biosphere functioning. Global simulations show that continued loss of large animals alone could lead to a 44%, 18% and 92% reduction in terrestrial heterotrophic biomass, metabolism, and fertility respectively. Our findings suggest that policies that emphasize the promotion of large trees and animals will have disproportionate impact on biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and climate mitigation. Human-driven losses of megafauna and megaflora may have disproportionate ecological consequences. Here, the authors combine metabolic scaling theory and global simulation models to show that past and continued reduction of megabiota have and will continue to decrease ecosystem and biosphere functioning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian J Enquist
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Arizona, AZ 85721, USA. .,The Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM, 87501, USA.
| | - Andrew J Abraham
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Michael B J Harfoot
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Yadvinder Malhi
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Christopher E Doughty
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
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Harfoot MBJ, Tittensor DP, Knight S, Arnell AP, Blyth S, Brooks S, Butchart SHM, Hutton J, Jones MI, Kapos V, Scharlemann JP, Burgess ND. Present and future biodiversity risks from fossil fuel exploitation. Conserv Lett 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Michael B. J. Harfoot
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
| | - Derek P. Tittensor
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
- Department of Biology; Dalhousie University; Canada
| | - Sarah Knight
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
| | - Andrew P. Arnell
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
| | - Simon Blyth
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
| | - Sharon Brooks
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
| | - Stuart H. M. Butchart
- BirdLife International; Cambridge United Kingdom
- Department of Zoology; University of Cambridge; United Kingdom
| | - Jon Hutton
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
- Luc Hoffmann Institute; Rue Mauverney 28 Gland Switzerland
| | - Matthew I. Jones
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
| | - Valerie Kapos
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
| | - Jӧrn P.W. Scharlemann
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
- School of Life Sciences; University of Sussex; Brighton United Kingdom
| | - Neil D. Burgess
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); Cambridge United Kingdom
- Department of Zoology; University of Cambridge; United Kingdom
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum; University of Copenhagen; Denmark
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Bartlett LJ, Newbold T, Purves DW, Tittensor DP, Harfoot MBJ. Synergistic impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on model ecosystems. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 283:rspb.2016.1027. [PMID: 27655763 PMCID: PMC5046893 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.1027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2016] [Accepted: 08/24/2016] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity, yet separating their effects is challenging. We use a multi-trophic, trait-based, and spatially explicit general ecosystem model to examine the independent and synergistic effects of these processes on ecosystem structure. We manipulated habitat by removing plant biomass in varying spatial extents, intensities, and configurations. We found that emergent synergistic interactions of loss and fragmentation are major determinants of ecosystem response, including population declines and trophic pyramid shifts. Furthermore, trait-mediated interactions, such as a disproportionate sensitivity of large-sized organisms to fragmentation, produce significant effects in shaping responses. We also show that top-down regulation mitigates the effects of land use on plant biomass loss, suggesting that models lacking these interactions—including most carbon stock models—may not adequately capture land-use change impacts. Our results have important implications for understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change, and assessing the impacts of habitat fragmentation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lewis J Bartlett
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, UK
| | - Tim Newbold
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Drew W Purves
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, UK
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, UK Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Michael B J Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, UK
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Newbold T, Boakes EH, Hill SLL, Harfoot MBJ, Collen B. The present and future effects of land use on ecological assemblages in tropical grasslands and savannas in Africa. OIKOS 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.04338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Dept of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Univ. College London; London WC1E 6BT UK
| | - Elizabeth H. Boakes
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Dept of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Univ. College London; London WC1E 6BT UK
| | - Samantha L. L. Hill
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre; Cambridge UK
- Dept of Life Sciences; Natural History Museum; London UK
| | - Michael B. J. Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre; Cambridge UK
| | - Ben Collen
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Dept of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Univ. College London; London WC1E 6BT UK
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Hof C, Dehling DM, Bonn A, Burgess ND, Eigenbrod F, Harfoot MBJ, Hickler T, Jetz W, Marquard E, Pereira HM, Böhning-Gaese K. Macroecology meets IPBES. Frontiers of Biogeography 2016. [DOI: 10.21425/f57428888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
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Hof C, Dehling DM, Bonn A, Burgess ND, Eigenbrod F, Harfoot MBJ, Hickler T, Jetz W, Marquard E, Pereira HM, Böhning-Gaese K. Macroecology meets IPBES. Frontiers of Biogeography 2016. [DOI: 10.21425/f5fbg28888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
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Harfoot MBJ, Newbold T, Tittensor DP, Emmott S, Hutton J, Lyutsarev V, Smith MJ, Scharlemann JPW, Purves DW. Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model. PLoS Biol 2014; 12:e1001841. [PMID: 24756001 PMCID: PMC3995663 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 137] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2013] [Accepted: 03/10/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper presents the first mathematical model that attempts to represent the biology and behavior of all individual organisms globally, taking us a step closer to holistic ecological and conservation science founded on mechanistic predictions. Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures. Ecosystems across the world are being rapidly degraded. This threatens their provision of natural goods and services, upon which all life depends. To be able to reduce—and one day reverse—this damage, we need to be able to predict the effects of human actions on ecosystems. Here, we present the first example of a General Ecosystem Model (GEM)—called the Madingley Model—a novel class of computational model that can be applied to any ecosystem, marine or terrestrial, and can be simulated at any spatial scale from local up to global. It covers almost all organisms in ecosystems, from the smallest to the largest, encoding the underlying biology and behaviour of individual organisms to capture the interactions between them and with the environment, to model the fate of each individual organism, and to make predictions about ecosystem structure and function. Predictions made by the Madingley Model broadly resemble what we observe in real-world ecosystems across scales from individuals through to communities, ecosystems, and the world as a whole. Our results show that ecologists can now begin modelling all nonhuman life on earth, and we suggest that this type of approach may hold promise for predicting the ecological implications of different future trajectories of human activity on our shared planet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael B. J. Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Tim Newbold
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Derek P. Tittensor
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Stephen Emmott
- Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Jon Hutton
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Vassily Lyutsarev
- Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew J. Smith
- Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Jörn P. W. Scharlemann
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, United Kingdom
| | - Drew W. Purves
- Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom
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Harfoot MBJ, Beerling DJ, Lomax BH, Pyle JA. A two-dimensional atmospheric chemistry modeling investigation of Earth's Phanerozoic O3and near-surface ultraviolet radiation history. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007372] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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