The Accuracy of Wrist Skin Temperature in Detecting Ovulation Compared to Basal Body Temperature: Prospective Comparative Diagnostic Accuracy Study

Background

As a daily point measurement, basal body temperature (BBT) might not be able to capture the temperature shift in the menstrual cycle because a single temperature measurement is present on the sliding scale of the circadian rhythm. Wrist skin temperature measured continuously during sleep has the potential to overcome this limitation.

Objective

This study compares the diagnostic accuracy of these two temperatures for detecting ovulation and to investigate the correlation and agreement between these two temperatures in describing thermal changes in menstrual cycles.

Methods

This prospective study included 193 cycles (170 ovulatory and 23 anovulatory) collected from 57 healthy women. Participants wore a wearable device (Ava Fertility Tracker bracelet 2.0) that continuously measured the wrist skin temperature during sleep. Daily BBT was measured orally and immediately upon waking up using a computerized fertility tracker with a digital thermometer (Lady-Comp). An at-home luteinizing hormone test was used as the reference standard for ovulation. The diagnostic accuracy of using at least one temperature shift detected by the two temperatures in detecting ovulation was evaluated. For ovulatory cycles, repeated measures correlation was used to examine the correlation between the two temperatures, and mixed effect models were used to determine the agreement between the two temperature curves at different menstrual phases.

Results

Wrist skin temperature was more sensitive than BBT (sensitivity 0.62 vs 0.23; P<.001) and had a higher true-positive rate (54.9% vs 20.2%) for detecting ovulation; however, it also had a higher false-positive rate (8.8% vs 3.6%), resulting in lower specificity (0.26 vs 0.70; P=.002). The probability that ovulation occurred when at least one temperature shift was detected was 86.2% for wrist skin temperature and 84.8% for BBT. Both temperatures had low negative predictive values (8.8% for wrist skin temperature and 10.9% for BBT). Significant positive correlation between the two temperatures was only found in the follicular phase (rmcorr correlation coefficient=0.294; P=.001). Both temperatures increased during the postovulatory phase with a greater increase in the wrist skin temperature (range of increase: 0.50 °C vs 0.20 °C). During the menstrual phase, the wrist skin temperature exhibited a greater and more rapid decrease (from 36.13 °C to 35.80 °C) than BBT (from 36.31 °C to 36.27 °C). During the preovulatory phase, there were minimal changes in both temperatures and small variations in the estimated daily difference between the two temperatures, indicating an agreement between the two curves.

Conclusions

For women interested in maximizing the chances of pregnancy, wrist skin temperature continuously measured during sleep is more sensitive than BBT for detecting ovulation. The difference in the diagnostic accuracy of these methods was likely attributed to the greater temperature increase in the postovulatory phase and greater temperature decrease during the menstrual phase for the wrist skin temperatures.

HIV-1 integration sites in CD4+ T cells during primary, chronic, and late presentation of HIV-1 infection

HIV-1 is capable of integrating its genome into that of its host cell. We examined the influence of the activation state of CD4⁺ T cells, the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and the clinical stage of HIV-1 infection on HIV-1 integration site features and selection. HIV-1 integration sites were sequenced from longitudinally sampled resting and activated CD4⁺ T cells from 12 HIV-1–infected individuals. In total, 589 unique HIV-1 integration sites were analyzed: 147, 391, and 51 during primary, chronic, and late presentation of HIV-1 infection, respectively. As early as during primary HIV-1 infection and independent of the activation state of CD4⁺ T cells collected on and off ART, HIV-1 integration sites were preferentially detected in recurrent integration genes, genes associated with clonal expansion of latently HIV-1–infected CD4⁺ T cells, cancer-related genes, and highly expressed genes. The preference for cancer-related genes was more pronounced at late stages of HIV-1 infection. Host genomic features of HIV-1 integration site selection remained stable during HIV-1 infection in both resting and activated CD4⁺ T cells. In summary, characteristic HIV-1 integration site features are preestablished as early as during primary HIV-1 infection and are found in both resting and activated CD4⁺ T cells.

EBV renders B cells susceptible to HIV-1 in humanized mice

HIV and EBV are human pathogens that cause a considerable burden to worldwide health. In combination, these viruses are linked to AIDS-associated lymphomas. We found that EBV, which transforms B cells, renders them susceptible to HIV-1 infection in a CXCR4 and CD4-dependent manner in vitro and that CXCR4-tropic HIV-1 integrates into the genome of these B cells with the same molecular profile as in autologous CD4⁺ T cells. In addition, we established a humanized mouse model to investigate the in vivo interactions of EBV and HIV-1 upon coinfection. The respective mice that reconstitute human immune system components upon transplantation with CD34⁺ human hematopoietic progenitor cells could recapitulate aspects of EBV and HIV immunobiology observed in dual-infected patients. Upon coinfection of humanized mice, EBV/HIV dual-infected B cells could be detected, but were susceptible to CD8⁺ T-cell-mediated immune control.

Low prevalence of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance detected by a dried blood spot (DBS)-based next-generation sequencing (NGS) method in newly diagnosed individuals in Cameroon in the years 2015-16

Objectives

To determine the most recent prevalence, transmission patterns and risk factors of transmitted drug-resistance mutations (TDRMs) in Cameroon, we initiated a multicentre study monitoring HIV-1 drug resistance in newly HIV-1-diagnosed individuals using a novel next-generation sequencing (NGS) assay applicable to fingerprick dried blood spot (DBS) samples.

Methods

Fingerprick DBS samples and questionnaires were collected from 360 newly HIV-1-diagnosed individuals in four hospitals in urban areas in Cameroon in the years 2015-16. We developed an HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase drug resistance genotyping assay applicable to DBS samples and HIV-1 genomes of groups M, N and O. The WHO 2009 list of mutations for surveillance of transmitted drug-resistant HIV strains was used to analyse TDRMs.

Results

Applying our 'DBS-NGS-genotypic resistance test', baseline HIV-1 drug resistance data were successfully obtained from 82.8% (298/360) of newly diagnosed individuals. At nucleotide frequencies >15%, TDRMs to NRTIs were observed in 3.0% (9/298), to NNRTIs in 4.0% (12/298) and to PIs in 1.3% (3/240). The NNRTI mutation K103N was most commonly detected (2.7%). Expanding the analysis to low-abundance TDRMs, i.e. 3%-15%, 12 additional individuals (4.0%) harbouring TDRMs were identified. Having unprotected sex with a known HIV-1-positive person was significantly associated with the transmission of DRMs (adjusted OR 9.6; 95% CI 1.79-51.3).

Conclusions

The prevalence of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance is currently low in the study sites in Cameroon. Evidence of some risky sexual behaviours depicts a public health problem with possible implications for the prevention of new HIV-1 infections.

Antibacterial effects of antiretrovirals, potential implications for microbiome studies in HIV

BACKGROUND

Despite being used by more than 18 million people our understanding of the extent of the effects of antiretrovirals on the human body and other organisms remains incomplete. In addition, the direct effect of antiretrovirals on the gut microbiota of HIV-infected individuals has been largely overlooked in microbiome studies concerned with HIV-infected individuals.

METHODS

Here we tested 25 antiretrovirals on Bacillus subtilis and Escherichia coli using a broth microdilution assay to assess whether these drugs have an antibacterial effect.

RESULTS

We found that several widely used antiretroviral drugs have in vitro antibacterial activity against both gram-positive and gram-negative commensal bacteria. Efavirenz inhibited the growth of B. subtilis with a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 16 µg/ml (in all three replicates), while 2',3'-dideoxyinosine and zidovudine inhibited the growth of E. coli with an MIC of 16-32 µg/ml and 0.016-0.125 µg/ml (respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the large and increasing number of individuals on antiretrovirals, and the lifelong nature of HIV treatment, this proof-of-concept report could have several potential implications, including an impact of antiretrovirals on bacterial coinfections, as well as potentials for drug discovery and repositioning.

Wearable Sensors Reveal Menses-Driven Changes in Physiology and Enable Prediction of the Fertile Window: Observational Study

Background

Previous research examining physiological changes across the menstrual cycle has considered biological responses to shifting hormones in isolation. Clinical studies, for example, have shown that women’s nightly basal body temperature increases from 0.28 to 0.56 ˚C following postovulation progesterone production. Women’s resting pulse rate, respiratory rate, and heart rate variability (HRV) are similarly elevated in the luteal phase, whereas skin perfusion decreases significantly following the fertile window’s closing. Past research probed only 1 or 2 of these physiological features in a given study, requiring participants to come to a laboratory or hospital clinic multiple times throughout their cycle. Although initially designed for recreational purposes, wearable technology could enable more ambulatory studies of physiological changes across the menstrual cycle. Early research suggests that wearables can detect phase-based shifts in pulse rate and wrist skin temperature (WST). To date, previous work has studied these features separately, with the ability of wearables to accurately pinpoint the fertile window using multiple physiological parameters simultaneously yet unknown.

Objective

In this study, we probed what phase-based differences a wearable bracelet could detect in users’ WST, heart rate, HRV, respiratory rate, and skin perfusion. Drawing on insight from artificial intelligence and machine learning, we then sought to develop an algorithm that could identify the fertile window in real time.

Methods

We conducted a prospective longitudinal study, recruiting 237 conception-seeking Swiss women. Participants wore the Ava bracelet (Ava AG) nightly while sleeping for up to a year or until they became pregnant. In addition to syncing the device to the corresponding smartphone app daily, women also completed an electronic diary about their activities in the past 24 hours. Finally, women took a urinary luteinizing hormone test at several points in a given cycle to determine the close of the fertile window. We assessed phase-based changes in physiological parameters using cross-classified mixed-effects models with random intercepts and random slopes. We then trained a machine learning algorithm to recognize the fertile window.

Results

We have demonstrated that wearable technology can detect significant, concurrent phase-based shifts in WST, heart rate, and respiratory rate (all P<.001). HRV and skin perfusion similarly varied across the menstrual cycle (all P<.05), although these effects only trended toward significance following a Bonferroni correction to maintain a family-wise alpha level. Our findings were robust to daily, individual, and cycle-level covariates. Furthermore, we developed a machine learning algorithm that can detect the fertile window with 90% accuracy (95% CI 0.89 to 0.92).

Conclusions

Our contributions highlight the impact of artificial intelligence and machine learning’s integration into health care. By monitoring numerous physiological parameters simultaneously, wearable technology uniquely improves upon retrospective methods for fertility awareness and enables the first real-time predictive model of ovulation.

Modern fertility awareness methods: wrist wearables capture the changes in temperature associated with the menstrual cycle

Core and peripheral body temperatures are affected by changes in reproductive hormones during the menstrual cycle. Women worldwide use the basal body temperature (BBT) method to aid and prevent conception. However, prior research suggests that taking one's daily temperature can prove inconvenient and subject to environmental factors. We investigate whether a more automatic, non-invasive temperature measurement system can detect changes in temperature across the menstrual cycle. We examined how wrist skin temperature (WST), measured with wearable sensors, correlates with urinary tests of ovulation and may serve as a new method of fertility tracking. One hundred and thirty-six eumenorrheic, non-pregnant women participated in an observational study. Participants wore WST biosensors during sleep and reported their daily activities. An at-home luteinizing hormone (LH) test was used to confirm ovulation. WST was recorded across 437 cycles (mean cycles/participant = 3.21, S.D. = 2.25). We tested the relationship between the fertile window and WST temperature shifts, using the BBT three-over-six rule. A sustained 3-day temperature shift was observed in 357/437 cycles (82%), with the lowest cycle temperature occurring in the fertile window 41% of the time. Most temporal shifts (307/357, 86%) occurred on ovulation day (OV) or later. The average early-luteal phase temperature was 0.33°C higher than in the fertile window. Menstrual cycle changes in WST were impervious to lifestyle factors, like having sex, alcohol, or eating prior to bed, that, in prior work, have been shown to obfuscate BBT readings. Although currently costlier than BBT, the present study suggests that WST could be a promising, convenient parameter for future multiparameter fertility awareness methods.

Cost-effectiveness of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer in a European country with high prevalence of smoking-A modelling study

OBJECTIVES

In Europe, there is uncertainty about the potential effects and cost-effectiveness of low dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer and about the applicability of results of North American studies. We aimed to estimate the effects and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Switzerland where the smoking prevalence is high.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The MIcrosimulation Screening ANalysis-Lung (MISCAN) model was adapted using country specific input parameters regarding lung cancer epidemiology, smoking behaviours, and treatment costs. The effects and costs of 648 screening scenarios with different screening start and stop ages, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening intervals were examined from a public healthcare system perspective across a lifetime horizon in a cohort born between 1935 and 1965.

RESULTS

All screening scenarios showed an increase in the total number of detected lung cancer cases and a decrease in lung cancer mortality. On the efficiency frontier, 15 of 27 scenarios showed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below € 50,000 per life year gained. These scenarios reduced lung cancer mortality by 6-15% while increasing incidence of lung cancer diagnoses by 2-6%.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that lung cancer screening may be cost-effective in Switzerland, a high-income, European country with high smoking prevalence.

Parent-offspring regression to estimate the heritability of an HIV-1 trait in a realistic setup

Background

Parent-offspring (PO) regression is a central tool to determine the heritability of phenotypic traits; i.e., the relative extent to which those traits are controlled by genetic factors. The applicability of PO regression to viral traits is unclear because the direction of viral transmission—who is the donor (parent) and who is the recipient (offspring)—is typically unknown and viral phylogenies are sparsely sampled.

Methods

We assessed the applicability of PO regression in a realistic setting using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck simulated data on phylogenies built from 11,442 Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) partial pol sequences and set-point viral load (SPVL) data from 3293 patients.

Results

We found that the misidentification of donor and recipient plays a minor role in estimating heritability and showed that sparse sampling does not influence the mean heritability estimated by PO regression. A mixed-effect model approach yielded the same heritability as PO regression but could be extended to clusters of size greater than 2 and allowed for the correction of confounding effects. Finally, we used both methods to estimate SPVL heritability in the SHCS. We employed a wide range of transmission pair criteria to measure heritability and found a strong dependence of the heritability estimates to these criteria. For the most conservative genetic distance criteria, for which heritability estimates are conceptually expected to be closest to true heritability, we found estimates ranging from 32 to 46% across different bootstrap criteria. For less conservative distance criteria, we found estimates ranging down to 8%. All estimates did not change substantially after adjusting for host-demographic factors in the mixed-effect model (±2%).

Conclusions

For conservative transmission pair criteria, both PO regression and mixed-effect models are flexible and robust tools to estimate the contribution of viral genetic effects to viral traits under real-world settings. Overall, we find a strong effect of viral genetics on SPVL that is not confounded by host demographics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12977-017-0356-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Pulse Rate Measurement During Sleep Using Wearable Sensors, and its Correlation with the Menstrual Cycle Phases, A Prospective Observational Study

An affordable, user-friendly fertility-monitoring tool remains an unmet need. We examine in this study the correlation between pulse rate (PR) and the menstrual phases using wrist-worn PR sensors. 91 healthy, non-pregnant women, between 22-42 years old, were recruited for a prospective-observational clinical trial. Participants measured PR during sleep using wrist-worn bracelets with photoplethysmographic sensors. Ovulation day was estimated with "Clearblue Digital-Ovulation-urine test". Potential behavioral and nutritional confounders were collected daily. 274 ovulatory cycles were recorded from 91 eligible women, with a mean cycle length of 27.3 days (±2.7). We observed a significant increase in PR during the fertile window compared to the menstrual phase (2.1 beat-per-minute, p < 0.01). Moreover, PR during the mid-luteal phase was also significantly elevated compared to the fertile window (1.8 beat-per-minute, p < 0.01), and the menstrual phase (3.8 beat-per-minute, p < 0.01). PR increase in the ovulatory and mid-luteal phase was robust to adjustment for the collected confounders. There is a significant increase of the fertile-window PR (collected during sleep) compared to the menstrual phase. The aforementioned association was robust to the inter- and intra-person variability of menstrual-cycle length, behavioral, and nutritional profiles. Hence, PR monitoring using wearable sensors could be used as one parameter within a multi-parameter fertility awareness-based method.

Mining for pairs: shared clinic visit dates identify steady HIV-positive partnerships

OBJECTIVES

Here we examined the hypothesis that some stable HIV-infected partnerships can be found in cohort studies, as the patients frequently attend the clinic visits together.

METHODS

Using mathematical approximations and shuffling to derive the probabilities of sharing a given number of visits by chance, we identified and validated couples that may represent either transmission pairs or serosorting couples in a stable relationship.

RESULTS

We analysed 434 432 visits for 16 139 Swiss HIV Cohort Study patients from 1990 to 2014. For 89 pairs, the number of shared visits exceeded the number expected. Of these, 33 transmission pairs were confirmed on the basis of three criteria: an extensive phylogenetic tree, a self-reported steady HIV-positive partnership, and risk group affiliation. Notably, 12 of the validated transmission pairs (36%; 12 of 33) were of a mixed ethnicity with a large median age gap [17.5 years; interquartile range (IQR) 11.8-22 years] and these patients harboured HIV-1 of predominantly non-B subtypes, suggesting imported infections.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of the surge in research interest in HIV transmission pairs, this simple method widens the horizons of research on within-pair quasi-species exchange, transmitted drug resistance and viral recombination at the biological level and targeted prevention at the public health level.

Factors associated with syphilis incidence in the HIV-infected in the era of highly active antiretrovirals

After several years of steady decline, syphilis is reemerging globally as a public health hazard, especially among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Syphilis resurgence is observed mainly in men who have sex with men (MSM), yet other transmission groups are affected too. In this manuscript, we study the factors associated with syphilis incidence in the Swiss HIV cohort study in the era of highly effective antiretrovirals. Using parametric interval censored models with fixed and time-varying covariates, we studied the immunological, behavioral, and treatment-related elements associated with syphilis incidence in 3 transmission groups: MSM, heterosexuals, and intravenous drug users. Syphilis incidence has been increasing annually since 2005, with up to 74 incident cases per 1000 person-years in 2013, with MSM being the population with the highest burden (92% of cases). While antiretroviral treatment (ART) in general did not affect syphilis incidence, nevirapine (NVP) was associated with a lower hazard of syphilis incidence (multivariable hazard ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0). We observed that condomless sex and younger age were associated with higher syphilis incidence. Moreover, time-updated CD4, nadir CD4, and CD8 cell counts were not associated with syphilis incidence. Finally, testing frequency higher than the recommended once a year routine testing was associated with a 2-fold higher risk of acquiring syphilis. Condomless sex is the main driver of syphilis resurgence in the Swiss HIV Cohort study; ART and immune reconstitution provide no protection against syphilis. This entails targeted interventions and frequent screening of high-risk populations. There is no known effect of NVP on syphilis; therefore, further clinical, epidemiological, and microbiological investigation is necessary to validate our observation.

Dually Active HIV/HBV Antiretrovirals as Protection Against Incident Hepatitis B Infections: Potential for Prophylaxis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has a detrimental effect on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) natural course, and HBV vaccination is less effective in the HIV infected. We examine the protective effect of dually active antiretroviral therapy (DAART) for HIV/HBV (tenofovir, lamivudine, and emtricitabine) in a large cohort encompassing heterosexuals, men who have sex with men, and intravenous drug users who are HIV infected yet susceptible to HBV, with comprehensive follow-up data about risky behavior and immunological profiles.

METHODS

We defined an incident HBV infection as the presence of any of HBV serological markers (hepatitis B surface antigen, anti-hepatitis B core antibodies, or HBV DNA) after a negative baseline test result for anti-hepatitis B core antibodies. Patients with positive anti-hepatitis B surface antigen serology were excluded. Cox proportional hazards models were used, with an incident case of HBV infection as the outcome variable.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1716 eligible patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with 177 incident HBV cases. DAART was negatively associated with incident HBV infection (hazard ratio [HR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], .2-.6). This protective association was robust to adjustment (HR, 0.3; 95% CI, .2-.5) for condomless sex, square-root-transformed CD4 cell count, drug use, and patient demographics. Condomless sex (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.4-2.6), being a man who has sex with men (2.7; 1.7-4.2), and being an intravenous drug user (3.8; 2.4-6.1) were all associated with a higher hazard of contracting HBV.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that DAART, independently of CD4 cell count and risky behavior, has a potentially strong public health impact, including pre-exposure prophylaxis of HBV coinfection in the HIV infected.

Monocyte-derived macrophages exhibit distinct and more restricted HIV-1 integration site repertoire than CD4(+) T cells

The host genetic landscape surrounding integrated HIV-1 has an impact on the fate of the provirus. Studies analysing HIV-1 integration sites in macrophages are scarce. We studied HIV-1 integration site patterns in monocyte-derived macrophages (MDMs) and activated CD4(+) T cells derived from seven antiretroviral therapy (ART)-treated HIV-1-infected individuals whose cells were infected ex vivo with autologous HIV-1 isolated during the acute phase of infection. A total of 1,484 unique HIV-1 integration sites were analysed. Their distribution in the human genome and genetic features, and the effects of HIV-1 integrase polymorphisms on the nucleotide selection specificity at these sites were indistinguishable between the two cell types, and among HIV-1 isolates. However, the repertoires of HIV-1-hosting gene clusters overlapped to a higher extent in MDMs than in CD4(+) T cells. The frequencies of HIV-1 integration events in genes encoding HIV-1-interacting proteins were also different between the two cell types. Lastly, HIV-1-hosting genes linked to clonal expansion of latently HIV-1-infected CD4(+) T cells were over-represented in gene hotspots identified in CD4(+) T cells but not in those identified in MDMs. Taken together, the repertoire of genes targeted by HIV-1 in MDMs is distinct from and more restricted than that of CD4(+) T cells.

HIV-1 Transmission During Recent Infection and During Treatment Interruptions as Major Drivers of New Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Reducing the fraction of transmissions during recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is essential for the population-level success of "treatment as prevention".

METHODS

A phylogenetic tree was constructed with 19 604 Swiss sequences and 90 994 non-Swiss background sequences. Swiss transmission pairs were identified using 104 combinations of genetic distance (1%-2.5%) and bootstrap (50%-100%) thresholds, to examine the effect of those criteria. Monophyletic pairs were classified as recent or chronic transmission based on the time interval between estimated seroconversion dates. Logistic regression with adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics was used to identify risk factors associated with transmission during recent or chronic infection.

FINDINGS

Seroconversion dates were estimated for 4079 patients on the phylogeny, and comprised between 71 (distance, 1%; bootstrap, 100%) to 378 transmission pairs (distance, 2.5%; bootstrap, 50%). We found that 43.7% (range, 41%-56%) of the transmissions occurred during the first year of infection. Stricter phylogenetic definition of transmission pairs was associated with higher recent-phase transmission fraction. Chronic-phase viral load area under the curve (adjusted odds ratio, 3; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-5.48) and time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) start (adjusted odds ratio 1.4/y; 1.11-1.77) were associated with chronic-phase transmission as opposed to recent transmission. Importantly, at least 14% of the chronic-phase transmission events occurred after the transmitter had interrupted ART.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a high fraction of transmission during recent HIV infection but also chronic transmissions after interruption of ART in Switzerland. Both represent key issues for treatment as prevention and underline the importance of early diagnosis and of early and continuous treatment.

Persistence of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance mutations associated with fitness costs and viral genetic backgrounds

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare.

Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables.

In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates.

Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.

The evolution of resistance is a universal challenge in antimicrobial chemotherapy. A key driver of resistance is that drug resistance mutations often persist even in the absence of drugs and despite the fact that resistance mutations are often associated with reduced pathogen replication (“fitness costs”). Such persistence may occur because fitness costs are low, especially if they are compensated by additional mutations in their “genetic background”. Here we assessed the role of fitness-cost and the genetic background for resistance in a real-world epidemiological setting by studying the persistence behavior of transmitted antiretroviral resistance mutations of HIV. This persistence behavior was associated with the predicted fitness cost of a given resistance mutation in the particular genetic background in which it occurred. We found that persistence behavior varied strongly across both mutation types and genetic backgrounds and that persistence was significantly associated with predicted fitness costs. In particular we found that even mutations of the same type tended to persist longer if they occurred in a genetic background where they caused weak fitness costs. Overall our results underline the variability of persistence behavior as well as the important role of fitness costs and the genetic background in the evolution of antimicrobial resistance.