HIV-1 Transmission During Recent Infection and During Treatment Interruptions as Major Drivers of New Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Molecular epidemiology to aid virtual elimination of HIV transmission in Australia

The Global UNAIDS 95/95/95 targets aim to increase the percentage of persons who know their HIV status, receive antiretroviral therapy, and have achieved viral suppression. Achieving these targets requires efforts to improve the public health response to increase access to care for those living with HIV, identify those yet undiagnosed with HIV early, and increase access to prevention for those most at risk of HIV acquisition. HIV infections in Australia are among the lowest globally having recorded significant declines in new diagnoses in the last decade. However, the HIV epidemic has changed with an increasing proportion of newly diagnosed infections among those born outside Australia observed in the last five years. Thus, the current prevention efforts are not enough to achieve the UNAIDS targets and virtual elimination across all population groups. We believe both are possible by including molecular epidemiology in the public health response. Molecular epidemiology methods have been crucial in the field of HIV prevention, particularly in demonstrating the efficacy of treatment as prevention. Cluster detection using molecular epidemiology can provide opportunities for the real-time detection of new outbreaks before they grow, and cluster detection programs are now part of the public health response in the USA and Canada. Here, we review what molecular epidemiology has taught us about HIV evolution and spread. We summarize how we can use this knowledge to improve public health measures by presenting case studies from the USA and Canada. We discuss the successes and challenges of current public health programs in Australia, and how we could use cluster detection as an add-on to identify gaps in current prevention measures easier and respond quicker to growing clusters. Lastly, we raise important ethical and legal challenges that need to be addressed when HIV genotypic data is used in combination with personal data.

Cohort Profile: The Zurich Primary HIV Infection Study

The Zurich Primary HIV Infection (ZPHI) study is a longitudinal cohort study established in 2002, aiming to study the clinical, epidemiological, and biological characteristics of primary HIV infection. The ZPHI enrolls individuals with documented primary HIV-1 infection. At the baseline and thereafter, the socio-demographic, clinical, and laboratory data are systematically collected, and regular blood sampling is performed for biobanking. By the end of December 2022, 486 people were enrolled, of which 353 were still undergoing active follow-up. Of the 486 participants, 86% had an acute infection, and 14% a recent HIV-1 infection. Men who have sex with men accounted for 74% of the study population. The median time from the estimated date of infection to diagnosis was 32 days. The median time from diagnosis to the initiation of antiretroviral therapy was 11 days, and this has consistently decreased over the last two decades. During the seroconversion phase, 447 (92%) patients reported having symptoms, of which only 73% of the patients were classified as having typical acute retroviral syndrome. The ZPHI study is a well-characterized cohort belonging to the most extensively studied primary HIV infection cohort. Its findings contribute to advancing our understanding of the early stages of HIV infection and pathogenesis, and it is paving the way to further improve HIV translational research and HIV medicine.

Attitudes Toward and Experiences With Discussing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis With Sexual Partners Among US Adolescents and Young Adults Living With HIV

PURPOSE

Sexual partners of youth living with HIV are a key population for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Among youth engaged in HIV medical care, we examined awareness of PrEP and experiences with and attitudes toward discussing PrEP with sexual partners.

METHODS

We recruited 25 15-24-year olds from an adolescent/young adult HIV clinic to complete individual interviews. Interviews assessed demographics, PrEP knowledge, sexual behaviors, and experiences with, intentions toward, barriers, and facilitating factors to discussing PrEP with partners. Transcripts were analyzed using framework analysis.

RESULTS

Mean age was 18.2 years. Twelve participants were cis-female, 11 cis-male, and two transgender female. Seventeen participants (68%) identified as Black, non-Hispanic. Nineteen acquired HIV sexually. Of 22 participants who had ever had sex, eight reported condomless sex in the prior 6 months. Most youth (17/25) were aware of PrEP. Only 11 participants had discussed PrEP with a partner; 16 reported high intention to discuss PrEP with future partners. Barriers to discussing PrEP with partners included participant-related barriers (i.e., discomfort disclosing HIV status), partner-related barriers (i.e., not open to or unfamiliar with PrEP), relationship-related barriers (i.e., new relationship, lack of trust), and stigma about HIV. Facilitating factors included positive relationship factors, educating partners about PrEP, and partners being receptive to learning about PrEP.

DISCUSSION

Although many youth living with HIV were aware of PrEP, fewer had discussed PrEP with a partner. PrEP use by partners of these youth may be improved by educating all youth about PrEP and offering opportunities for partners to meet with clinicians to discuss PrEP.

Quantifying and Predicting Ongoing Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Transmission Dynamics in Switzerland Using a Distance-Based Clustering Approach

BACKGROUND

Despite effective prevention approaches, ongoing human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) transmission remains a public health concern indicating a need for identifying its drivers.

METHODS

We combined a network-based clustering method using evolutionary distances between viral sequences with statistical learning approaches to investigate the dynamics of HIV transmission in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and to predict the drivers of ongoing transmission.

RESULTS

We found that only a minority of clusters and patients acquired links to new infections between 2007 and 2020. While the growth of clusters and the probability of individual patients acquiring new links in the transmission network was associated with epidemiological, behavioral, and virological predictors, the strength of these associations decreased substantially when adjusting for network characteristics. Thus, these network characteristics can capture major heterogeneities beyond classical epidemiological parameters. When modeling the probability of a newly diagnosed patient being linked with future infections, we found that the best predictive performance (median area under the curve receiver operating characteristic AUCROC = 0.77) was achieved by models including characteristics of the network as predictors and that models excluding them performed substantially worse (median AUCROC = 0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the utility of molecular epidemiology-based network approaches for analyzing and predicting ongoing HIV transmission dynamics. This approach may serve for real-time prospective assessment of HIV transmission.

Similar But Different: Integrated Phylogenetic Analysis of Austrian and Swiss HIV-1 Sequences Reveal Differences in Transmission Patterns of the Local HIV-1 Epidemics

OBJECTIVES

Phylogenetic analyses of 2 or more countries allow to detect differences in transmission dynamics of local HIV-1 epidemics beyond differences in demographic characteristics.

METHODS

A maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree was built using pol -sequences of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and the Austrian HIV Cohort Study (AHIVCOS), with international background sequences. Three types of phylogenetic cherries (clusters of size 2) were analyzed further: (1) domestic cherries; (2) international cherries; and (3) SHCS/AHIVCOS-cherries. Transmission group and ethnicities observed within the cherries were compared with the respective distribution expected from a random distribution of patients on the phylogeny.

RESULTS

The demographic characteristics of the AHIVCOS (included patients: 3'141) and the SHCS (included patients: 12'902) are very similar. In the AHIVCOS, 36.5% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.3% in international cherries, and 7.0% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Similarly, in the SHCS, 43.0% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.2% in international cherries, and 1.7% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Although international cherries in the SHCS were dominated by heterosexuals with men who have sex with men being underrepresented, the opposite was the case for the AHIVCOS. In both cohorts, cherries with one patient belonging to the transmission group intravenous drug user and the other one non-intravenous drug user were underrepresented.

CONCLUSIONS

In both cohorts, international HIV transmission plays a major role in the local epidemics, mostly driven by men who have sex with men in the AHIVOS, and by heterosexuals in the SHCS, highlighting the importance of international collaborations to understand global HIV transmission links on the way to eliminate HIV.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Unravelling Patterns of HIV Transmission towards Epidemic Control: The Quebec Experience (2002-2020)

Phylogenetics has been advanced as a structural framework to infer evolving trends in the regional spread of HIV-1 and guide public health interventions. In Quebec, molecular network analyses tracked HIV transmission dynamics from 2002-2020 using MEGA10-Neighbour-joining, HIV-TRACE, and MicrobeTrace methodologies. Phylogenetics revealed three patterns of viral spread among Men having Sex with Men (MSM, n = 5024) and heterosexuals (HET, n = 1345) harbouring subtype B epidemics as well as B and non-B subtype epidemics (n = 1848) introduced through migration. Notably, half of new subtype B infections amongst MSM and HET segregating as solitary transmissions or small cluster networks (2-5 members) declined by 70% from 2006-2020, concomitant to advances in treatment-as-prevention. Nonetheless, subtype B epidemic control amongst MSM was thwarted by the ongoing genesis and expansion of super-spreader large cluster variants leading to micro-epidemics, averaging 49 members/cluster at the end of 2020. The growth of large clusters was related to forward transmission cascades of untreated early-stage infections, younger at-risk populations, more transmissible/replicative-competent strains, and changing demographics. Subtype B and non-B subtype infections introduced through recent migration now surpass the domestic epidemic amongst MSM. Phylodynamics can assist in predicting and responding to active, recurrent, and newly emergent large cluster networks, as well as the cryptic spread of HIV introduced through migration.

Using longitudinally sampled viral nucleotide sequences to characterize the drivers of HIV-1 transmission

OBJECTIVES

Understanding the drivers of HIV-1 transmission is of importance for curbing the ongoing epidemic. Phylogenetic methods based on single viral sequences allow us to assess whether two individuals are part of the same viral outbreak, but cannot on their own assess who potentially transmitted the virus. We developed and assessed a molecular epidemiology method with the main aim to screen cohort studies for and to characterize individuals who are 'potential HIV-1 transmitters', in order to understand the drivers of HIV-1 transmission.

METHODS

We developed and validated a molecular epidemiology approach using longitudinally sampled viral Sanger sequences to characterize potential HIV-1 transmitters in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

RESULTS

Our method was able to identify 279 potential HIV-1 transmitters and allowed us to determine the main epidemiological and virological drivers of transmission. We found that the directionality of transmission was consistent with infection times for 72.9% of 85 potential HIV-1 transmissions with accurate infection date estimates. Being a potential HIV-1 transmitter was associated with risk factors including viral load [adjusted odds ratio_{multivariable} (95% confidence interval): 1.86 (1.49-2.32)], syphilis coinfection [1.52 (1.06-2.19)], and recreational drug use [1.45 (1.06-1.98)]. By contrast for the potential HIV-1 recipients, this association was weaker or even absent [1.18 (0.82-1.72), 0.89 (0.52-1.55) and 1.53 (0.98-2.39), respectively], indicating that inferred directionality of transmission is useful at the population level.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that longitudinally sampled Sanger sequences do not provide sufficient information to identify transmitters with high certainty at the individual level, but that they allow the drivers of transmission at the population level to be characterized.

Dynamics of HIV-1 Molecular Networks Reveal Effective Control of Large Transmission Clusters in an Area Affected by an Epidemic of Multiple HIV Subtypes

This study reconstructed molecular networks of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission history in an area affected by an epidemic of multiple HIV-1 subtypes and assessed the efficacy of strengthened early antiretroviral therapy (ART) and regular interventions in preventing HIV spread. We collected demographic and clinical data of 2221 treatment-naïve HIV-1–infected patients in a long-term cohort in Shenyang, Northeast China, between 2008 and 2016. HIV pol gene sequencing was performed and molecular networks of CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, and subtype B were inferred using HIV-TRACE with separate optimized genetic distance threshold. We identified 168 clusters containing ≥ 2 cases among CRF01_AE-, CRF07_BC-, and subtype B-infected cases, including 13 large clusters (≥ 10 cases). Individuals in large clusters were characterized by younger age, homosexual behavior, more recent infection, higher CD4 counts, and delayed/no ART (P < 0.001). The dynamics of large clusters were estimated by proportional detection rate (PDR), cluster growth predictor, and effective reproductive number (R_e). Most large clusters showed decreased or stable during the study period, indicating that expansion was slowing. The proportion of newly diagnosed cases in large clusters declined from 30 to 8% between 2008 and 2016, coinciding with an increase in early ART within 6 months after diagnosis from 24 to 79%, supporting the effectiveness of strengthened early ART and continuous regular interventions. In conclusion, molecular network analyses can thus be useful for evaluating the efficacy of interventions in epidemics with a complex HIV profile.

Empirical comparison of analytical approaches for identifying molecular HIV-1 clusters

Public health interventions guided by clustering of HIV-1 molecular sequences may be impacted by choices of analytical approaches. We identified commonly-used clustering analytical approaches, applied them to 1886 HIV-1 Rhode Island sequences from 2004-2018, and compared concordance in identifying molecular HIV-1 clusters within and between approaches. We used strict (topological support ≥ 0.95; distance 0.015 substitutions/site) and relaxed (topological support 0.80-0.95; distance 0.030-0.045 substitutions/site) thresholds to reflect different epidemiological scenarios. We found that clustering differed by method and threshold and depended more on distance than topological support thresholds. Clustering concordance analyses demonstrated some differences across analytical approaches, with RAxML having the highest (91%) mean summary percent concordance when strict thresholds were applied, and three (RAxML-, FastTree regular bootstrap- and IQ-Tree regular bootstrap-based) analytical approaches having the highest (86%) mean summary percent concordance when relaxed thresholds were applied. We conclude that different analytical approaches can yield diverse HIV-1 clustering outcomes and may need to be differentially used in diverse public health scenarios. Recognizing the variability and limitations of commonly-used methods in cluster identification is important for guiding clustering-triggered interventions to disrupt new transmissions and end the HIV epidemic.

Factors influencing HIV-1 phylogenetic clustering

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

A major goal of public health in relation to HIV/AIDS is to prevent new transmissions in communities. Phylogenetic techniques have improved our understanding of the structure and dynamics of HIV transmissions. However, there is still no consensus about phylogenetic methodology, sampling coverage, gene target and/or minimum fragment size.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several studies use a combined methodology, which includes both a genetic or patristic distance cut-off and a branching support threshold to identify phylogenetic clusters. However, the choice about these thresholds remains an inherently subjective process, which affects the results of these studies. There is still a lack of consensus about the genomic region and the size of fragments that should be used, although there seems to be emerging a consensus that using longer segments, allied with the use of a realistic model of evolution and a codon alignment, increases the likelihood of inferring true transmission clusters. The pol gene is still the most used genomic region, but recent studies have suggested that whole genomes and/or sequences from nef and gp41 are also good targets for cluster reconstruction.

SUMMARY

The development and application of standard methodologies for phylogenetic clustering analysis will advance our understanding of factors associated with HIV transmission. This will lead to the design of more precise public health interventions.

Social network approaches to locating people recently infected with HIV in Odessa, Ukraine

Introduction

This paper examines the extent to which an intervention succeeded in locating people who had recently become infected with HIV in the context of the large‐scale Ukrainian epidemic. Locating and intervening with people who recently became infected with HIV (people with recent infection, or PwRI) can reduce forward HIV transmission and help PwRI remain healthy.

Methods

The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) recruited recently‐infected and longer‐term infected seeds in Odessa, Ukraine, in 2013 to 2016, and asked them to help recruit their extended risk network members. The proportions of network members who were PwRI were compared between TRIP arms (i.e. networks of recently‐infected seeds vs. networks of longer‐term infected seeds) and to the proportion of participants who were PwRI in an RDS‐based Integrated Biobehavioral Surveillance of people who inject drugs in 2013.

Results

The networks of PwRI seeds and those of longer‐term infected seeds had similar (2%) proportions who were themselves PwRI. This was higher than the 0.25% proportion in IBBS (OR = 7.80; p = 0.016). The odds ratio among the subset of participants who injected drugs was 11.17 (p = 0.003). Cost comparison analyses using simplified ingredients‐based methods found that TRIP spent no more than US $4513 per PwRI located whereas IBBS spent $11,924.

Conclusions

Further research is needed to confirm these results and improve TRIP further, but our findings suggest that interventions that trace the networks of people who test HIV‐positive are a cost‐effective way to locate PwRI and reduce HIV transmission and should therefore be implemented.

Viral Diversity Based on Next-Generation Sequencing of HIV-1 Provides Precise Estimates of Infection Recency and Time Since Infection

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) genetic diversity increases over the course of infection and can be used to infer the time since infection and, consequently, infection recency, which are crucial for HIV-1 surveillance and the understanding of viral pathogenesis.

METHODS

We considered 313 HIV-infected individuals for whom reliable estimates of infection dates and next-generation sequencing (NGS)-derived nucleotide frequency data were available. Fractions of ambiguous nucleotides, obtained by population sequencing, were available for 207 samples. We assessed whether the average pairwise diversity calculated using NGS sequences provided a more exact prediction of the time since infection and classification of infection recency (<1 year after infection), compared with the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides.

RESULTS

NGS-derived average pairwise diversity classified an infection as recent with a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 85%. When considering only the 207 samples for which fractions of ambiguous nucleotides were available, the NGS-derived average pairwise diversity exhibited a higher sensitivity (90% vs 78%) and specificity (95% vs 67%) than the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides. Additionally, the average pairwise diversity could be used to estimate the time since infection with a mean absolute error of 0.84 years, compared with 1.03 years for the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral diversity based on NGS data is more precise than that based on population sequencing in its ability to predict infection recency and provides an estimated time since infection that has a mean absolute error of <1 year.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Resistance: 2018 Recommendations of the International Antiviral Society-USA Panel

Background

Contemporary antiretroviral therapies (ART) and management strategies have diminished both human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment failure and the acquired resistance to drugs in resource-rich regions, but transmission of drug-resistant viruses has not similarly decreased. In low- and middle-income regions, ART roll-out has improved outcomes, but has resulted in increasing acquired and transmitted resistances. Our objective was to review resistance to ART drugs and methods to detect it, and to provide updated recommendations for testing and monitoring for drug resistance in HIV-infected individuals.

Methods

A volunteer panel of experts appointed by the International Antiviral (formerly AIDS) Society–USA reviewed relevant peer-reviewed data that were published or presented at scientific conferences. Recommendations were rated according to the strength of the recommendation and quality of the evidence, and reached by full panel consensus.

Results

Resistance testing remains a cornerstone of ART. It is recommended in newly-diagnosed individuals and in patients in whom ART has failed. Testing for transmitted integrase strand-transfer inhibitor resistance is currently not recommended, but this may change as more resistance emerges with widespread use. Sanger-based and next-generation sequencing approaches are each suited for genotypic testing. Testing for minority variants harboring drug resistance may only be considered if treatments depend on a first-generation nonnucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitor. Different HIV-1 subtypes do not need special considerations regarding resistance testing.

Conclusions

Testing for HIV drug resistance in drug-naive individuals and in patients in whom antiretroviral drugs are failing, and the appreciation of the role of testing, are crucial to the prevention and management of failure of ART.

'Break the Chains 2015' community-based HIV prevention campaign for men who have sex with men in Switzerland: non-randomised evaluation and cost analysis

OBJECTIVES

To study the implementation, effects and costs of Break the Chains, a community-based HIV prevention campaign for men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, from March to May 2015, which aimed to reduce early HIV transmission by promoting the campaign message to adopt short-term risk reduction followed by HIV testing.

DESIGN

Non-randomised evaluation and cost analysis.

SETTING

Gay venues in 11 of 26 cantons in Switzerland and national online media campaign.

PARTICIPANTS

MSM in online surveys (precampaign n=834, postcampaign n=688) or attending HIV testing centres (n=885); campaign managers (n=9); and campaign staff (n=38) or further intermediaries (n=80) in an online survey.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was the proportion of MSM at risk of HIV acquisition or transmission who adhered to the campaign message. Secondary outcomes were postcampaign test uptake, knowledge about HIV primary infection and sense of belonging to the gay community.

RESULTS

Campaign staff estimated that they contacted 17 145 MSM in 11 cantons. Among 688 respondents to the postcampaign survey, 311 (45.2%) were categorised as MSM at risk. Of 402/688 (58.5%) MSM who had heard about Break the Chains 2015, MSM categorised as being at risk were less likely to report adherence to the campaign message than MSM not at risk (adjusted OR 0.24; 95% CI 0.14 to 0.42). Twenty per cent of MSM with a defined risk of HIV acquisition or transmission who adopted risk reduction declared having done so because of the campaign. Costs for one MSM at risk to adhere to the campaign message were estimated at USD purchasing power parity 36-55. The number of HIV tests in the month after the campaign was twice the monthly average.

CONCLUSION

Break the Chains increased HIV testing, implying that community-based campaigns are useful HIV prevention strategies for MSM. Additional interventions are needed to reach MSM at the highest risk of infection more effectively.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 Subtype B Reveals Heterogeneous Transmission Risk: Implications for Intervention and Control

Background

The impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) depends on infections averted by protecting vulnerable individuals as well as infections averted by preventing transmission by those who would have been infected if not receiving PrEP. Analysis of HIV phylogenies reveals risk factors for transmission, which we examine as potential criteria for allocating PrEP.

Methods

We analyzed 6912 HIV-1 partial pol sequences from men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United Kingdom combined with global reference sequences and patient-level metadata. Population genetic models were developed that adjust for stage of infection, global migration of HIV lineages, and changing incidence of infection through time. Models were extended to simulate the effects of providing susceptible MSM with PrEP.

Results

We found that young age <25 years confers higher risk of HIV transmission (relative risk = 2.52 [95% confidence interval, 2.32–2.73]) and that young MSM are more likely to transmit to one another than expected by chance. Simulated interventions indicate that 4-fold more infections can be averted over 5 years by focusing PrEP on young MSM.

Conclusions

Concentrating PrEP doses on young individuals can avert more infections than random allocation.

Risk network approaches to locating undiagnosed HIV cases in Odessa, Ukraine

INTRODUCTION

Providing HIV healthcare and Treatment as Prevention both depend on diagnosing HIV cases, preferably soon after initial infection. We hypothesized that tracing risk networks recruits higher proportions of undiagnosed positives than outreach-based testing or respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in Odessa, Ukraine.

METHODS

The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) used risk network tracing to recruit sexual and injection networks of recently-infected and longer-term infected (LTs) seeds (2013 to 2016). Integrated Biobehavioural Surveillance (IBBS) (2013) used RDS to recruit people who inject drugs (PWID). Outreach Testing tested PWID for HIV at community outreach sites (2013 to 2016). Proportions of undiagnosed positives among those tested were compared TRIP versus IBBS; TRIP versus Outreach Testing and between TRIP arms. Costs were compared across the projects.

RESULTS

TRIP tested 1252 people (21% women) in seeds' risk networks; IBBS tested 400 (18% women); Outreach Testing 13,936 (31% women). TRIP networks included a higher proportion of undiagnosed positives (14.6%) than IBBS (5.0%) or Outreach Testing (2.4%); odds ratio (OR) 3.25 (95% CI 2.07, 5.12) versus IBBS and 7.03 (CI 5.95, 8.31) versus Outreach Testing respectively. Findings remained significant in analyses stratified by sex and when PWID in TRIP networks were compared with Outreach Testing and IBBS. Within TRIP, recently-infected participants' networks contained higher proportions of undiagnosed positives (16.3%) than LTs' networks (12.2%); OR 1.41 (CI 1.01, 1.95). TRIP located undiagnosed positives less expensively than did RDS or Outreach Testing.

CONCLUSIONS

TRIP's recruiting techniques, including prioritizing networks of the recently infected, find undiagnosed HIV-positive people efficiently. They should be integrated with standard practice to improve case-finding. Research should test these techniques in other socio-epidemiologic contexts.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY

Registered ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01827228.

Experiences of Stigma and Support Reported by Participants in a Network Intervention to Reduce HIV Transmission in Athens, Greece; Odessa, Ukraine; and Chicago, Illinois

A growing body of evidence suggests that network-based interventions to reduce HIV transmission and/or improve HIV-related health outcomes have an important place in public health efforts to move towards 90-90-90 goals. However, the social processes involved in network-based recruitment may pose a risk to participants of increasing HIV-related stigma if network recruitment causes HIV status to be assumed, inferred, or disclosed. On the other hand, the social processes involved in network-based recruitment to HIV testing may also encourage HIV-related social support. Yet despite the relevance of these processes to both network-based interventions and to other more common interventions (e.g., partner services), there is a dearth of literature that directly examines them among participants of such interventions. Furthermore, both HIV-related stigma and social support may influence participants' willingness and ability to recruit their network members to the study. This paper examines (1) the extent to which stigma and support were experienced by participants in the Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP), a risk network-tracing intervention aimed at locating recently HIV-infected and/or undiagnosed HIV-infected people and linking them to care in Athens, Greece; Odessa, Ukraine; and Chicago, Illinois; and (2) whether stigma and support predicted participant engagement in the intervention. Overall, experiences of stigma were infrequent and experiences of support frequent, with significant variation between study sites. Experiences and perceptions of HIV-related stigma did not change significantly between baseline and six-month follow-up for the full TRIP sample, and significantly decreased during the course of the study at the Chicago site. Experiences of HIV-related support significantly increased among recently-HIV-infected participants at all sites, and among all participants at the Odessa site. Both stigma and support were found to predict participants' recruitment of network members to the study at the Athens site, and to predict participants' interviewer-rated enthusiasm for naming and recruiting their network members at both the Athens and Odessa sites. These findings suggest that network-based interventions like TRIP which aim to reduce HIV transmission likely do not increase stigma-related risks to participants, and may even encourage increased social support among network members. However, the present study is limited by its associational design and by some variation in implementation by study site. Future research should directly assess contextual differences to improve understanding of the implications of site-level variation in stigma and support for the implementation of network-based interventions, given the finding that these constructs predict participants' recruitment of network members and engagement in the intervention, and thereby could limit network-based interventions' abilities to reach those most in need of HIV testing and care.

Knowledge, Normative Beliefs and Attitudes Related to Recent HIV Infection among People who Inject Drugs in Athens, Greece

BACKGROUND

Despite great improvements in prevention over the last years, much has to be done to reduce new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections. Substantial evidence shows that the six-month period of recent HIV infection contributes disproportionately to HIV transmission.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate knowledge, normative beliefs, and attitudes of people who inject drugs (PWID) regarding recent HIV infection.

METHODS

People who inject drugs in Athens, Greece were recruited in the fifth round of a respondent- driven sampling program (ARISTOTLE). The participants were tested for HIV and answered a structured questionnaire, which also included items on knowledge, normative beliefs, and attitudes regarding recent infection to address needs of the social network-based Transmission Reduction Intervention Project. The multivariable analyses included logistic regression models, which produced odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

In total, 1,407 people (mean age: 36.3 ± 7.9 years old; males: 81.9%) took part in the fifth round of ARISTOTLE. Of these, 61.5% knew that HIV-infected people who are not on treatment are more likely to transmit HIV during the first six months of their infection and 58.4% reported that people in their network would react positively towards a recently HIV-infected person. People who inject drugs who were knowledgeable of recent HIV infection were more likely to disagree with statements such as that one should avoid all contact with a person recently infected by HIV (adjusted OR: 1.510, 95% CI: 1.090, 2.091) or more likely to agree with statements such as that an HIV+ person is much less likely to transmit HIV when h/she is on combination antiretroviral treatment (adjusted OR: 2.083, 95% CI: 1.231, 3.523).

CONCLUSION

A considerable proportion of PWID in Athens, Greece, were aware of the high HIV transmission risk of recent HIV infection, although improvement is needed for some population segments. People who inject drugs who were knowledgeable of the role of recent HIV infection were more likely to have normative beliefs and attitudes that favor behaviors that could help rather than harm or stigmatize people who have recently been infected with HIV. Interventions that are based on the role of recent HIV infection in HIV transmission could be important to HIV prevention.

Identifying, linking, and treating people who inject drugs and were recently infected with HIV in the context of a network-based intervention

Identifying and linking people to care soon after HIV infection could limit viral transmission and protect their health. This work aims at describing the continuum of care among recently HIV-infected people who inject drugs (PWID) and participated in an intervention in the context of an HIV outbreak in Athens, Greece. The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) conducted risk network-based contact tracing and screened people for recent HIV infection. A comprehensive approach with a case management component that aimed to remove barriers to accessing care was adopted. Follow-up data on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and HIV-RNA levels were obtained from HIV clinics. TRIP enrolled 45 recently HIV-infected PWID (80% male) with a median viral load at recruitment of 5.43 log₁₀ copies/mL. Of the recently infected persons in TRIP, 87% were linked to care; of these, 77% started ART; and of those on ART, 89% achieved viral load <200 copies/mL. TRIP and its public health allies managed to get most of the recently HIV-infected PWID who were identified by the program into care and many of them onto ART. This resulted in very low HIV-RNA levels. Treatment as prevention can work if individuals are aided in overcoming difficulties in entry to, or attrition from care.

Insights on transmission of HIV from phylogenetic analysis to locally optimize HIV prevention strategies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Phylogenetic analysis can identify transmission networks by clustering genetically related HIV genotypes that are routinely collected. In this study, we will review phylogenetic insights gained on transmission of HIV and phylogenetically optimized HIV prevention strategies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Phylogenetic analysis reports that HIV transmission varies by geographical region and by route of transmission. In high-income countries, HIV is predominantly transmitted between recently infected MSM who live in the same country. In rural Uganda, transmission of HIV is frequently between different communities. Age-discrepant transmission has been reported across the world. Four studies have used phylogenetic optimization of HIV prevention. Three studies predict that immediate treatment after diagnosis would have prevented 19-42% of infections, and that preexposure prophylaxis would have prevented 66% of infections. One phylogenetic study guided a public health response to an actively ongoing HIV outbreak. Phylogenetic clustering requires a dense sample of patients and small time-gaps between infection and diagnosis.

SUMMARY

Phylogenetic analysis can be an important tool to identify a local strategy that prevents most infections. Future studies that use phylogenetic analysis for optimizing HIV prevention strategies should also include cost-effectiveness so that the most cost-effective prevention method is identified.

Epidemiological changes of acute/recent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection in Barcelona, Spain (1997-2015): a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology of acute/recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection over two decades in Barcelona (Spain).

METHODS

Prospective, single-centre cohort including all patients with an acute/recent HIV infection (<180 days) since 1997. Patients were stratified into four periods. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to determine clusters of transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 346 consecutive acute/recently infected patients were included. The annual proportion of recent infections among total new HIV diagnoses increased over time from 1% (29 out of 1964) to 8% (112 out of 1474) (p <0.001). Proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) in the cohort increased from 62% (18 out of 29) to 89% (100 out of 112) (p <0.001). The proportion of migrants showed a non-significant increasing trend (24% (7 of 29) to 40% (45 of 112)) likewise the non-B subtype (0% to 22% (22 of 112)). The mean time from infection to diagnosis was 53.6 days (interquartile range (IQR) 50-57), comparable among all periods. Mean time from infection to treatment decreased over the years from 575 (IQR 467-683) to 471 (IQR 394-549) days (p <0.001) without significant differences between migrants and non-migrants (133 (IQR 71-411) versus 208 (IQR 90-523) days p 0.089). Almost 50% (152 of 311) of recently infected individuals were included in a cluster of transmission, and 92% (137 of 149) of them were MSM.

CONCLUSION

The MSM population has progressively grown within acutely/recently infected patients in Barcelona, and is frequently involved in transmission clusters. Although the time between diagnosis and treatment has been reduced, the time between infection and diagnosis still needs to be shortened.

Non-persistence to antiretroviral therapy among adults receiving HIV medical care in the United States

Not taking medicine over a specific period of time-non-persistence to antiretroviral therapy (ART)-may be associated with higher HIV-viral load. However, national estimates of non-persistence among U.S. HIV patients are lacking. We examined the association between non-persistence and various factors, including sustained HIV-viral suppression (VS) stratified by adherence, and assessed reasons for non-persistence using Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) data. MMP conducts clinical and behavioral surveillance among cross-sectional representative samples of adults receiving HIV care in the U.S. We analyzed weighted MMP interview and medical record abstraction data collected between 6/2011-5/2015 from 18,423 patients self-reporting ART use. We defined non-persistence as a self-initiated decision to not take ART for ≥2 consecutive days in the past 12-months, non-adherence as missing ≥1 ART dose during the past 3-days and sustained VS as all HIV-viral loads documented in medical record during the past 12-months as undetectable or <200 copies/mL. We used Rao-Scott chi-square tests to examine the association between non-persistence and sociodemographic, behavioral, clinical, and medication-related factors. We examined the association between non-persistence and sustained VS, stratified by adherence, and present prevalence ratios (PRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Reasons for non-persistence were assessed. Overall, 7% of patients reported non-persistence. Drug use, depression and medication side effects were associated with non-persistence (P < 0.01). Non-persistence was associated with the lack of sustained VS (PR: .66, CI:63-.70); this association did not differ by adherence level. However, VS was lower among the non-persistent/adherent compared with the persistent/non-adherent [51% (CI:47-54) versus 61% (CI:36-46), P < 0.01]. The most prevalent reason for non-persistence was treatment fatigue (38%). Though few persons in HIV care reported non-persistence, our findings suggest that non-persistence is associated with lack of sustained VS, regardless of adherence. Routine screening for non-persistence during clinical appointments and counseling for those at risk for non-persistence may help improve clinical outcomes.

Inferring the age difference in HIV transmission pairs by applying phylogenetic methods on the HIV transmission network of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Age-mixing patterns are of key importance for understanding the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-epidemics and target public health interventions. We use the densely sampled Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) resistance database to study the age difference at infection in HIV transmission pairs using phylogenetic methods. In addition, we investigate whether the mean age difference of pairs in the phylogenetic tree is influenced by sampling as well as by additional distance thresholds for including pairs. HIV-1 pol-sequences of 11,922 SHCS patients and approximately 240,000 Los Alamos background sequences were used to build a phylogenetic tree. Using this tree, 100 per cent down to 1 per cent of the tips were sampled repeatedly to generate pruned trees (N = 500 for each sample proportion), of which pairs of SHCS patients were extracted. The mean of the absolute age differences of the pairs, measured as the absolute difference of the birth years, was analyzed with respect to this sample proportion and a distance criterion for inclusion of the pairs. In addition, the transmission groups men having sex with men (MSM), intravenous drug users (IDU), and heterosexuals (HET) were analyzed separately. Considering the tree with all 11,922 SHCS patients, 2,991 pairs could be extracted, with 954 (31.9 per cent) MSM-pairs, 635 (21.2 per cent) HET-pairs, 414 (13.8 per cent) IDU-pairs, and 352 (11.8 per cent) HET/IDU-pairs. For all transmission groups, the age difference at infection was significantly (P < 0.001) smaller for pairs in the tree compared with randomly assigned pairs, meaning that patients of similar age are more likely to be pairs. The mean age difference in the phylogenetic analysis, using a fixed distance of 0.05, was 9.2, 9.0, 7.3 and 5.6 years for MSM-, HET-, HET/IDU-, and IDU-pairs, respectively. Decreasing the cophenetic distance threshold from 0.05 to 0.01 significantly decreased the mean age difference. Similarly, repeated sampling of 100 per cent down to 1 per cent of the tips revealed an increased age difference at lower sample proportions. HIV-transmission is age-assortative, but the age difference of transmission pairs detected by phylogenetic analyses depends on both sampling proportion and distance criterion. The mean age difference decreases when using more conservative distance thresholds, implying an underestimation of age-assortativity when using liberal distance criteria. Similarly, overestimation of the mean age difference occurs for pairs from sparsely sampled trees, as it is often the case in sub-Saharan Africa.

Tracing HIV-1 strains that imprint broadly neutralizing antibody responses

Understanding the determinants of broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) evolution is crucial for the development of bNAb-based HIV vaccines¹. Despite emerging information on cofactors that promote bNAb evolution in natural HIV-1 infections, in which the induction of bNAbs is genuinely rare², information on the impact of the infecting virus strain on determining the breadth and specificity of the antibody responses to HIV-1 is lacking. Here we analyse the influence of viral antigens in shaping antibody responses in humans. We call the ability of a virus strain to induce similar antibody responses across different hosts its antibody-imprinting capacity, which from an evolutionary biology perspective corresponds to the viral heritability of the antibody responses. Analysis of 53 measured parameters of HIV-1-binding and neutralizing antibody responses in a cohort of 303 HIV-1 transmission pairs (individuals who harboured highly related HIV-1 strains and were putative direct transmission partners or members of an HIV-1 transmission chain) revealed that the effect of the infecting virus on the outcome of the bNAb response is moderate in magnitude but highly significant. We introduce the concept of bNAb-imprinting viruses and provide evidence for the existence of such viruses in a systematic screening of our cohort. The bNAb-imprinting capacity can be substantial, as indicated by a transmission pair with highly similar HIV-1 antibody responses and strong bNAb activity. Identification of viruses that have bNAb-imprinting capacities and their characterization may thus provide the potential to develop lead immunogens.

Quantifying the drivers of HIV transmission and prevention in men who have sex with men: a population model-based analysis in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

Despite the huge success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), there is an ongoing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in resource-rich countries. Understanding the driving factors underlying this process is important for curbing the epidemic.

METHODS

We simulated the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland by stratifying a mathematical model by CD4 count, the care cascade and condom use. The model was parametrised with clinical, epidemiological and behavioural data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and surveys in the HIV-negative population.

RESULTS

According to our model, 3.4% of the cases that would otherwise have occurred in 2008-2015 were prevented by early initiation of ART. Only 0.6% of the cases were attributable to a change in condom use in the HIV-positive population, as less usage is mainly seen in virally suppressed MSM. Most new infections were attributable to transmission from recently infected undiagnosed individuals. It was estimated that doubling the diagnosis rate would have resulted in 11.8% fewer cases in 2001-2015. Moreover, it was estimated that introducing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for 50% of those MSM not using condoms with occasional partners would have resulted in 22.6% fewer cases in 2012-2015.

CONCLUSIONS

By combining observational data on the relevant epidemiological and clinical processes with a mathematical model, we showed that the 'test and treat' approach is most effective in reducing the number of new cases. Only a moderate population-level effect was estimated for early initiation of ART and a weak effect for the change in condom use of diagnosed MSM. Protecting HIV-negative individuals who are not using condoms with PrEP was shown to have a major impact.

Molecular Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1)-Infected Individuals in a Network-Based Intervention (Transmission Reduction Intervention Project): Phylogenetics Identify HIV-1-Infected Individuals With Social Links

Background

The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) is a network-based intervention that aims at decreasing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) spread. We herein explore associations between transmission links as estimated by phylogenetic analyses, and social network-based ties among persons who inject drugs (PWID) recruited in TRIP.

Methods

Phylogenetic trees were inferred from HIV-1 sequences of TRIP participants. Highly supported phylogenetic clusters (transmission clusters) were those fulfilling 3 different phylogenetic confidence criteria. Social network-based ties (injecting or sexual partners, same venue engagement) were determined based on personal interviews, recruitment links, and field observation.

Results

TRIP recruited 356 individuals (90.2% PWID) including HIV-negative controls; recently HIV-infected seeds; long-term HIV-infected seeds; and their social network members. Of the 150 HIV-infected participants, 118 (78.7%) were phylogenetically analyzed. Phylogenetic analyses suggested the existence of 13 transmission clusters with 32 sequences. Seven of these clusters included 14 individuals (14/32 [43.8%]) who also had social ties with at least 1 member of their cluster. This proportion was significantly higher than what was expected by chance.

Conclusions

Molecular methods can identify HIV-infected people socially linked with another person in about half of the phylogenetic clusters. This could help public health efforts to locate individuals in networks with high transmission rates.

The Cumulative Impact of Harm Reduction on the Swiss HIV Epidemic: Cohort Study, Mathematical Model, and Phylogenetic Analysis

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among injecting drug users (IDUs) is increasing in the United States due to the recent opioid epidemic and is the leading mode of transmission in Eastern Europe.

Methods

To evaluate the overall impact of HIV harm reduction, we combined (1) data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and public sources with (2) a mathematical model expressed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model reconstructs the national epidemic from the first case in 1980 until 2015. Phylogenetic cluster analysis of HIV-1 pol sequences was used to quantify the epidemic spillover from IDUs to the general population.

Results

Overall, harm reduction prevented 15903 (range, 15359–16448) HIV infections among IDUs until the end of 2015, 5446 acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths (range, 5142–5752), and a peak HIV prevalence of 50.7%. Introduction of harm reduction 2 years earlier could have halved the epidemic, preventing 3161 (range, 822–5499) HIV infections and 1468 (range, 609–2326) AIDS deaths. Suddenly discontinuing all harm reduction in 2005 would have resulted in outbreak re-emergence with 1351 (range, 779–1925) additional HIV cases. Without harm reduction, the estimated additional number of heterosexuals infected by HIV-positive IDUs is estimated to have been 2540 (range, 2453–2627), which is equivalent to the total national reported incidence among heterosexuals in the period of 2007 to 2015.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that a paramount, population-level impact occurred because of the harm reduction package, beyond factors that can be explained by a reduction in risk behavior and a decrease in the number of drug users over time.

Predicting short-term interruptions of antiretroviral therapy from summary adherence data: Development and test of a probability model

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is vulnerable to unplanned treatment interruptions-consecutively missed doses over a series of days-which can result in virologic rebound. Yet clinicians lack a simple, valid method for estimating the risk of interruptions. If the likelihood of ART interruption could be derived from a convenient-to-gather summary measure of medication adherence, it might be a valuable tool for both clinical decision-making and research. We constructed an a priori probability model of ART interruption based on average adherence and tested its predictions using data collected on 185 HIV-infected, treatment-naïve individuals over the first 90 days of ART in a prospective cohort study in Mbarara, Uganda. The outcome of interest was the presence or absence of a treatment gap, defined as >72 hours without a dose. Using the pre-determined value of 0.50 probability as the cut point for predicting an interruption, the classification accuracy of the model was 73% (95% CI = 66%- 79%), the specificity was 87% (95% CI = 79%- 93%), and the sensitivity was 59% (95% CI = 48%- 69%). Overall model performance was satisfactory, with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.85 (95% CI = 0.80-0.91) and Brier score of 0.20. The study serves as proof-of-concept that the probability model can accurately differentiate patients on the continuum of risk for short-term ART interruptions using a summary measure of adherence. The model may also aid in the design of targeted interventions.

Genotypic and Phylogenetic Insights on Prevention of the Spread of HIV-1 and Drug Resistance in "Real-World" Settings

HIV continues to spread among vulnerable heterosexual (HET), Men-having-Sex with Men (MSM) and intravenous drug user (IDU) populations, influenced by a complex array of biological, behavioral and societal factors. Phylogenetics analyses of large sequence datasets from national drug resistance testing programs reveal the evolutionary interrelationships of viral strains implicated in the dynamic spread of HIV in different regional settings. Viral phylogenetics can be combined with demographic and behavioral information to gain insights on epidemiological processes shaping transmission networks at the population-level. Drug resistance testing programs also reveal emergent mutational pathways leading to resistance to the 23 antiretroviral drugs used in HIV-1 management in low-, middle- and high-income settings. This article describes how genotypic and phylogenetic information from Quebec and elsewhere provide critical information on HIV transmission and resistance, Cumulative findings can be used to optimize public health strategies to tackle the challenges of HIV in “real-world” settings.

Proportion and factors associated with recent HIV infection in a cohort of patients seen for care in Italy over 1996-2014: Data from the ICONA Foundation Study cohort

In Italy the prevalence of recent HIV infection (RHI) isn’t currently monitored. Early diagnosis is crucial to allow introduction of antiretroviral therapy (cART) in the recent phase of infection. We aimed to estimate the proportion and the determinants of RHI among patients enrolled in the ICONA cohort; we explored differences in the median time from HIV diagnosis to cART initiation and in the viro-immunological response between RHI and Less Recent HIV infections (NRHI). We included antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive patients enrolled in the cohort with documented dates of HIV-negative and positive antibodies tests, grouped in RHI (estimated date of seroconversion within 12 months of enrolment) and NRHI. Proportion of RHI and the trend of this proportion by calendar period (1996–2014) were investigated (Chi-square test). Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with RHI. The time from seroconversion to cART initiation was compared in RHI and NRHI overall and after stratification by calendar period (survival analysis). We finally explored the time from starting cART to HIV-RNA <50 copies/mL and to CD4+ gain ≥200 cells/mmc by Cox regression. HIV seroconversion could be estimated for 2608/12,616 patients: 981/2608 (37.6%) were RHI. Proportion of RHI increased in recent calendar periods and was associated with younger age, baseline higher HIV-RNA and CD4+ count. There wasn’t difference in the 2-year estimates of cART start between RHI and NRHI, regardless of calendar period. Rates and hazards of virological response were similar in RHI versus NRHI. RHI showed a 1.5-fold higher probability of CD4+ gain, also following adjustment for calendar period and cART regimen, and for age, HCV and smoking; the difference in probability was however attenuated after further controlling for baseline HIV-RNA and CD4+ T-cells. The increased proportion of RHI over time suggests that in recent years in Italy HIV infections are more likely to be detected earlier than before. The similar rates of cART introduction and viro-immunological response in RHI and NRHI probably reflect the efficacy of the modern cART regimens. An improvement of the prevention services is warranted to allow an early cART access, also in the perspective of therapy as prevention.

Acute HIV infection detection and immediate treatment estimated to reduce transmission by 89% among men who have sex with men in Bangkok

Introduction: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces HIV transmission. Despite increased ART coverage, incidence remains high among men who have sex with men (MSM) in many places. Acute HIV infection (AHI) is characterized by high viral replication and increased infectiousness. We estimated the feasible reduction in transmission by targeting MSM with AHI for early ART.

Methods: We recruited a cohort of 88 MSM with AHI in Bangkok, Thailand, who initiated ART immediately. A risk calculator based on viral load and reported behaviour, calibrated to Thai epidemiological data, was applied to estimate the number of onwards transmissions. This was compared with the expected number without early interventions.

Results: Forty of the MSM were in 4th-generation AHI stages 1 and 2 (4thG stage 1, HIV nucleic acid testing (NAT)+/4thG immunoassay (IA)-/3rdG IA–; 4thG stage 2, NAT+/4thG IA+/3rdG IA–) while 48 tested positive on third-generation IA but had negative or indeterminate western blot (4thG stage 3). Mean plasma HIV RNA was 5.62 log¹⁰ copies/ml. Any condomless sex in the four months preceding the study was reported by 83.7%, but decreased to 21.2% by 24 weeks on ART. After ART, 48/88 (54.6%) attained HIV RNA <50 copies/ml by week 8, increasing to 78/87 (89.7%), and 64/66 (97%) at weeks 24 and 48, respectively. The estimated number of onwards transmissions in the first year of infection would have been 27.3 (95% credible interval: 21.7–35.3) with no intervention, 8.3 (6.4–11.2) with post-diagnosis behaviour change only, 5.9 (4.4–7.9) with viral load reduction only and 3.1 (2.4–4.3) with both. The latter was associated with an 88.7% (83.8–91.1%) reduction in transmission.

Conclusions: Disproportionate HIV transmission occurs during AHI. Diagnosis of AHI with early ART initiation can substantially reduce onwards transmission.

Limited overlap between phylogenetic HIV and hepatitis C virus clusters illustrates the dynamic sexual network structure of Dutch HIV-infected MSM

OBJECTIVE

MSM are at increased risk for infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Is HIV/HCV coinfection confined to specific HIV transmission networks?

DESIGN AND METHODS

A HIV phylogenetic tree was constructed for 5038 HIV-1 subtype B polymerase (pol) sequences obtained from MSM in the AIDS therapy evaluation in the Netherlands cohort. We investigated the existence of HIV clusters with increased HCV prevalence, the HIV phylogenetic density (i.e. the number of potential HIV transmission partners) of HIV/HCV-coinfected MSM compared with HIV-infected MSM without HCV, and the overlap in HIV and HCV phylogenies using HCV nonstructural protein 5B sequences from 183 HIV-infected MSM with acute HCV infection.

RESULTS

Five hundred and sixty-three of 5038 (11.2%) HIV-infected MSM tested HCV positive. Phylogenetic analysis revealed 93 large HIV clusters (≥10 MSM), 370 small HIV clusters (2-9 MSM), and 867 singletons with a median HCV prevalence of 11.5, 11.6, and 9.3%, respectively. We identified six large HIV clusters with elevated HCV prevalence (range 23.5-46.2%). Median HIV phylogenetic densities for MSM with HCV (3, interquartile range 1-7) and without HCV (3, interquartile range 1-8) were similar. HCV phylogeny showed 12 MSM-specific HCV clusters (clustersize: 2-39 HCV sequences); 12.7% of HCV infections were part of the same HIV and HCV cluster.

CONCLUSION

We observed few HIV clusters with elevated HCV prevalence, no increase in the HIV phylogenetic density of HIV/HCV-coinfected MSM compared to HIV-infected MSM without HCV, and limited overlap between HIV and HCV phylogenies among HIV/HCV-coinfected MSM. Our data do not support the existence of MSM-specific sexual networks that fuel both the HIV and HCV epidemic.

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42—0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%—17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.

In epidemiology, the “basic reproductive number” describes how efficiently a disease is transmitted, and represents the average number of new infections that an infected individual causes. If this number is less than one, many people do not infect anybody and hence the transmission chains die out. On the other hand, if the basic reproductive number is larger than one, an infected person infects on average more than one new individual, which leads to the virus or bacteria spreading in a self-sustained way.

Turk et al. have now developed a method to estimate the basic reproductive number using the genetic sequences of the virus or bacteria, and have used it to investigate how efficiently HIV spreads among Swiss heterosexuals. The results show that the basic reproductive number of HIV in this group is far below the critical value of one and that over the last years this number has been decreasing. Furthermore, the basic reproductive number differs for different subtypes of the HIV virus, indicating that the geographical region where the infection was acquired may play a role in transmission. Turk et al. also found that people who are diagnosed later or who often have sex with occasional partners spread the virus more efficiently.

These findings might be helpful for policy makers as they indicate that the risk of self-sustained transmission in this group in Switzerland is small. Furthermore the method allows HIV epidemics to be monitored at high resolution using sequence data, assesses the success of currently implemented preventive measures, and helps to target subgroups who are at higher risk of an infection – for instance, by supporting frequent HIV testing of these people. The method developed by Turk et al. could also prove useful for assessing the danger of other epidemics.

IP-10 Levels as an Accurate Screening Tool to Detect Acute HIV Infection in Resource-Limited Settings

Acute HIV infection (AHI) is the period prior to seroconversion characterized by high viral replication, hyper-transmission potential and commonly, non-specific febrile illness. AHI detection requires HIV-RNA viral load (VL) determination, which has very limited access in low-income countries due to restrictive costs and implementation constraints. We sought to identify a biomarker that could enable AHI diagnosis in scarce-resource settings, and to evaluate the feasibility of its implementation. HIV-seronegative adults presenting at the Manhiça District Hospital, Mozambique, with reported-fever were tested for VL. Plasma levels of 49 inflammatory biomarkers from AHI (n = 61) and non-HIV infected outpatients (n = 65) were determined by Luminex and ELISA. IP-10 demonstrated the best predictive power for AHI detection (AUC = 0.88 [95%CI 0.80-0.96]). A cut-off value of IP-10 ≥ 161.6 pg/mL provided a sensitivity of 95.5% (95%CI 85.5-99.5) and a specificity of 76.5% (95%CI 62.5-87.2). The implementation of an IP-10 screening test could avert from 21 to 84 new infections and save from US$176,609 to US$533,467 to the health system per 1,000 tested patients. We conclude that IP-10 is an accurate biomarker to screen febrile HIV-seronegative individuals for subsequent AHI diagnosis with VL. Such an algorithm is a cost-effective strategy to prevent disease progression and a substantial number of further HIV infections.

Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study

Background

UNAIDS calls for fewer than 500,000 new HIV infections/year by 2020, with treatment-as-prevention being a key part of their strategy for achieving the target. A better understanding of the contribution to transmission of people at different stages of the care pathway can help focus intervention services at populations where they may have the greatest effect. We investigate this using Uganda as a case study.

Methods

An individual-based HIV/ART model was fitted using history matching. 100 model fits were generated to account for uncertainties in sexual behaviour, HIV epidemiology, and ART coverage up to 2015 in Uganda. A number of different ART scale-up intervention scenarios were simulated between 2016 and 2030. The incidence and proportion of transmission over time from people with primary infection, post-primary ART-naïve infection, and people currently or previously on ART was calculated.

Results

In all scenarios, the proportion of transmission by ART-naïve people decreases, from 70% (61%–79%) in 2015 to between 23% (15%–40%) and 47% (35%–61%) in 2030. The proportion of transmission by people on ART increases from 7.8% (3.5%–13%) to between 14% (7.0%–24%) and 38% (21%–55%). The proportion of transmission by ART dropouts increases from 22% (15%–33%) to between 31% (23%–43%) and 56% (43%–70%).

Conclusions

People who are currently or previously on ART are likely to play an increasingly large role in transmission as ART coverage increases in Uganda. Improving retention on ART, and ensuring that people on ART remain virally suppressed, will be key in reducing HIV incidence in Uganda.

Parent-offspring regression to estimate the heritability of an HIV-1 trait in a realistic setup

Background

Parent-offspring (PO) regression is a central tool to determine the heritability of phenotypic traits; i.e., the relative extent to which those traits are controlled by genetic factors. The applicability of PO regression to viral traits is unclear because the direction of viral transmission—who is the donor (parent) and who is the recipient (offspring)—is typically unknown and viral phylogenies are sparsely sampled.

Methods

We assessed the applicability of PO regression in a realistic setting using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck simulated data on phylogenies built from 11,442 Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) partial pol sequences and set-point viral load (SPVL) data from 3293 patients.

Results

We found that the misidentification of donor and recipient plays a minor role in estimating heritability and showed that sparse sampling does not influence the mean heritability estimated by PO regression. A mixed-effect model approach yielded the same heritability as PO regression but could be extended to clusters of size greater than 2 and allowed for the correction of confounding effects. Finally, we used both methods to estimate SPVL heritability in the SHCS. We employed a wide range of transmission pair criteria to measure heritability and found a strong dependence of the heritability estimates to these criteria. For the most conservative genetic distance criteria, for which heritability estimates are conceptually expected to be closest to true heritability, we found estimates ranging from 32 to 46% across different bootstrap criteria. For less conservative distance criteria, we found estimates ranging down to 8%. All estimates did not change substantially after adjusting for host-demographic factors in the mixed-effect model (±2%).

Conclusions

For conservative transmission pair criteria, both PO regression and mixed-effect models are flexible and robust tools to estimate the contribution of viral genetic effects to viral traits under real-world settings. Overall, we find a strong effect of viral genetics on SPVL that is not confounded by host demographics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12977-017-0356-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mining for pairs: shared clinic visit dates identify steady HIV-positive partnerships

OBJECTIVES

Here we examined the hypothesis that some stable HIV-infected partnerships can be found in cohort studies, as the patients frequently attend the clinic visits together.

METHODS

Using mathematical approximations and shuffling to derive the probabilities of sharing a given number of visits by chance, we identified and validated couples that may represent either transmission pairs or serosorting couples in a stable relationship.

RESULTS

We analysed 434 432 visits for 16 139 Swiss HIV Cohort Study patients from 1990 to 2014. For 89 pairs, the number of shared visits exceeded the number expected. Of these, 33 transmission pairs were confirmed on the basis of three criteria: an extensive phylogenetic tree, a self-reported steady HIV-positive partnership, and risk group affiliation. Notably, 12 of the validated transmission pairs (36%; 12 of 33) were of a mixed ethnicity with a large median age gap [17.5 years; interquartile range (IQR) 11.8-22 years] and these patients harboured HIV-1 of predominantly non-B subtypes, suggesting imported infections.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of the surge in research interest in HIV transmission pairs, this simple method widens the horizons of research on within-pair quasi-species exchange, transmitted drug resistance and viral recombination at the biological level and targeted prevention at the public health level.

Phylodynamics on local sexual contact networks

Phylodynamic models are widely used in infectious disease epidemiology to infer the dynamics and structure of pathogen populations. However, these models generally assume that individual hosts contact one another at random, ignoring the fact that many pathogens spread through highly structured contact networks. We present a new framework for phylodynamics on local contact networks based on pairwise epidemiological models that track the status of pairs of nodes in the network rather than just individuals. Shifting our focus from individuals to pairs leads naturally to coalescent models that describe how lineages move through networks and the rate at which lineages coalesce. These pairwise coalescent models not only consider how network structure directly shapes pathogen phylogenies, but also how the relationship between phylogenies and contact networks changes depending on epidemic dynamics and the fraction of infected hosts sampled. By considering pathogen phylogenies in a probabilistic framework, these coalescent models can also be used to estimate the statistical properties of contact networks directly from phylogenies using likelihood-based inference. We use this framework to explore how much information phylogenies retain about the underlying structure of contact networks and to infer the structure of a sexual contact network underlying a large HIV-1 sub-epidemic in Switzerland.

Phylodynamic models relate the branching pattern of a pathogen’s phylogenetic tree to the tree-like growth of an epidemic as it spreads through a host population. Such models are increasingly used to learn about the epidemiology of different pathogens. We extend current models to consider the structure of host contact networks—the web of physical interactions through which pathogens spread. By considering how local interactions among hosts shape the phylogeny of a pathogen, our models offer a “pathogen’s eye view” of these networks. Our models also provide a statistical framework that can be used to infer network structure directly from phylogenies, which we use to estimate the properties of a sexual contact network in Switzerland from a HIV phylogeny.

Health Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination in Developing Countries: Progress and Way Forward

Two rotavirus vaccines have been licensed in >100 countries worldwide since 2006. As of October 2105, these vaccines have been implemented in the national immunization programs of 79 countries, including 36 low-income countries that are eligible for support for vaccine purchase from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Rotavirus vaccines were initially introduced in Australia and countries of the Americas and Europe after completion of successful clinical trials in these regions, and the impact of routine vaccination in reducing the health burden of severe childhood gastroenteritis in these regions has been well documented. Because of concerns around the performance of orally administered rotavirus vaccines in developing countries, vaccine implementation in these settings only began after additional clinical trials were completed and the World Health Organization issued a global recommendation for use of rotavirus vaccines in 2009. This supplementary issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases includes a collection of articles describing the impact and effectiveness of routine rotavirus vaccination in developing countries that were among the early adopters of rotavirus vaccine. The data highlight the benefits of vaccination and should provide valuable evidence to sustain vaccine use in these countries and encourage other countries to adopt routine rotavirus vaccination to reduce the health burden of severe childhood gastroenteritis.

A network intervention that locates and intervenes with recently HIV-infected persons: The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP)

Early treatment, soon after infection, reduces HIV transmissions and benefits patients. The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) evaluated a network intervention to detect individuals recently infected (in the past 6 months). TRIP was conducted in Greece (2013-2015) and focused on drug injector networks. Based on HIV status, testing history, and the results of an assay to detect recent infections, TRIP classified drug injector "Seeds" into groups: Recent Seeds (RS), and Control Seeds with Long-term HIV infection (LCS). The network members of RS and LCS were traced for two steps. The analysis included 23 RS, 171 network members of the RS, 19 LCS, and 65 network members of the LCS. The per-seed number of recents detected in the network of RS was 5 times the number in the network of LCS (Ratio RS vs. LCS: 5.23; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.54-27.61). The proportion of recents among HIV positives in the network of RS (27%) was approximately 3 times (Ratio RS vs. LCS: 3.30; 95% CI: 1.04-10.43) that in the network of LCS (8%). Strategic network tracing that starts with recently infected persons could support public health efforts to find and treat people early in their HIV infection.

Treatment interruption after 2-year antiretroviral treatment initiated during acute/early HIV in infancy

OBJECTIVE

Treatment interruption has been well tolerated and durable in some pediatric studies but none have compared treatment interruption with continued antiretroviral treatment (ART) following ART initiation in early HIV. The objective of this study was to compare outcomes in treatment interruption versus continued ART among early-treated infants.

DESIGN

Randomized trial (OPH-03; NCT00428116).

METHODS

The trial included HIV-infected infants who initiated ART at less than 13 months of age, received ART for 24 months, and, if eligible (CD4% >25%, normal growth), were randomized to treatment interruption versus continued ART. Children in the treatment interruption group restarted ART if they met WHO ART-eligibility criteria. During 18-months postrandomization, primary outcomes were incidence of serious adverse events and growth. CD4%, viral load, morbidity, and growth were compared.

RESULTS

Of 140 infants enrolled, 121 started ART, of whom 75 completed at least 24 months ART and 42 were randomized (21 per arm). ART was initiated at median age 5 months and randomization at 30 months. Among 21 treatment interruption children, 14 met ART restart criteria within 3 months. Randomization was discontinued by Data and Safety Monitoring Board due to low treatment interruption durability. At 18 months postrandomization, growth and serious adverse events were comparable between arms; hypercholesteremia incidence was higher in the continued arm (P = 0.03). CD4% and viral load did not differ between arms [CD4% 35% and median viral load undetectable (<150 copies/ml) in both arms, P = 0.9 for each comparison]. No infants had post-treatment viral control.

CONCLUSION

Short treatment interruption did not compromise 18-month CD4%, viral control, growth, or morbidity compared with continued ART among infants who started ART in early HIV infection.

Antiretroviral Drugs for Treatment and Prevention of HIV Infection in Adults: 2016 Recommendations of the International Antiviral Society-USA Panel

IMPORTANCE

New data and therapeutic options warrant updated recommendations for the use of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) to treat or to prevent HIV infection in adults.

OBJECTIVE

To provide updated recommendations for the use of antiretroviral therapy in adults (aged ≥18 years) with established HIV infection, including when to start treatment, initial regimens, and changing regimens, along with recommendations for using ARVs for preventing HIV among those at risk, including preexposure and postexposure prophylaxis.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

A panel of experts in HIV research and patient care convened by the International Antiviral Society-USA reviewed data published in peer-reviewed journals, presented by regulatory agencies, or presented as conference abstracts at peer-reviewed scientific conferences since the 2014 report, for new data or evidence that would change previous recommendations or their ratings. Comprehensive literature searches were conducted in the PubMed and EMBASE databases through April 2016. Recommendations were by consensus, and each recommendation was rated by strength and quality of the evidence.

FINDINGS

Newer data support the widely accepted recommendation that antiretroviral therapy should be started in all individuals with HIV infection with detectable viremia regardless of CD4 cell count. Recommended optimal initial regimens for most patients are 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) plus an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI). Other effective regimens include nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors or boosted protease inhibitors with 2 NRTIs. Recommendations for special populations and in the settings of opportunistic infections and concomitant conditions are provided. Reasons for switching therapy include convenience, tolerability, simplification, anticipation of potential new drug interactions, pregnancy or plans for pregnancy, elimination of food restrictions, virologic failure, or drug toxicities. Laboratory assessments are recommended before treatment, and monitoring during treatment is recommended to assess response, adverse effects, and adherence. Approaches are recommended to improve linkage to and retention in care are provided. Daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine is recommended for use as preexposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV infection in persons at high risk. When indicated, postexposure prophylaxis should be started as soon as possible after exposure.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Antiretroviral agents remain the cornerstone of HIV treatment and prevention. All HIV-infected individuals with detectable plasma virus should receive treatment with recommended initial regimens consisting of an InSTI plus 2 NRTIs. Preexposure prophylaxis should be considered as part of an HIV prevention strategy for at-risk individuals. When used effectively, currently available ARVs can sustain HIV suppression and can prevent new HIV infection. With these treatment regimens, survival rates among HIV-infected adults who are retained in care can approach those of uninfected adults.

Transmitted HIV Drug Resistance Is High and Longstanding in Metropolitan Washington, DC

BACKGROUND

Washington, DC, has 2.5% human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, 3.9% among African Americans. Antiretrovirals (ARTs) are the cornerstone for treatment and prevention. Monitoring changes in transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is critical for effective HIV care.

METHODS

HIV genotype data for individuals enrolled in research studies in metropolitan Washington, D.C., were used to identify TDR using the World Health Organization mutation list [Bennett DE, Camacho RJ, Otelea D, et al. Drug resistance mutations for surveillance of transmitted HIV-1 drug-resistance: 2009 update. PloS One 2009; 4:e4724]. HIV phylogenies were reconstructed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. HIV transmission clusters were supported by 1000 bootstrap values >0.70 and posterior probability >0.95 of having a common ancestor.

RESULTS

Among 710 individuals enrolled in 1994-2013, the median age was 38.6 years, 46.2% were female, and 53.3% were African-American. TDR was 22.5% among 566 treatment-naive individuals; 15.8% had nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance, 9.8% had nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance, and 4.2% had protease inhibitor (PI) resistance. Single class TDR was 10.0%, 5.1%, and 1.6% to NRTIs, NNRTIs, and PIs. Dual TDR to PI and NRTI was seen in 1.6%, NRTI and NNRTI in 3.4%, and triple class TDR in 0.9%. TDR frequency decreased from 1994-2006 (27.1%) to 2007-2013 (19.4%; P = .02). Only 6/79 (7.6%) individuals within transmission clusters had evidence of TDR.

DISCUSSIONS

We identified high prevalence of TDR among HIV-infected individuals in metropolitan Washington, DC, regardless of gender. Active surveillance for TDR is needed to guide ART usage and analyses of risk group contributions to HIV transmission and resistance.

Genotypic Resistance Tests Sequences Reveal the Role of Marginalized Populations in HIV-1 Transmission in Switzerland

Targeting hard-to-reach/marginalized populations is essential for preventing HIV-transmission. A unique opportunity to identify such populations in Switzerland is provided by a database of all genotypic-resistance-tests from Switzerland, including both sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and non-cohort sequences. A phylogenetic tree was built using 11,127 SHCS and 2,875 Swiss non-SHCS sequences. Demographics were imputed for non-SHCS patients using a phylogenetic proximity approach. Factors associated with non-cohort outbreaks were determined using logistic regression. Non-B subtype (univariable odds-ratio (OR): 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8–2.1), female gender (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4–1.7), black ethnicity (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7–2.1) and heterosexual transmission group (OR:1.8; 95% CI: 1.6–2.0), were all associated with underrepresentation in the SHCS. We found 344 purely non-SHCS transmission clusters, however, these outbreaks were small (median 2, maximum 7 patients) with a strong overlap with the SHCS’. 65% of non-SHCS sequences were part of clusters composed of >= 50% SHCS sequences. Our data suggests that marginalized-populations are underrepresented in the SHCS. However, the limited size of outbreaks among non-SHCS patients in-care implies that no major HIV outbreak in Switzerland was missed by the SHCS surveillance. This study demonstrates the potential of sequence data to assess and extend the scope of infectious-disease surveillance.

The application of HIV molecular epidemiology to public health

HIV is responsible for one of the largest viral pandemics in human history. Despite a concerted global response for prevention and treatment, the virus persists. Thus, urgent public health action, utilizing novel interventions, is needed to prevent future transmission events, critical to eliminating HIV. For public health planning to prove effective and successful, we need to understand the dynamics of regional epidemics and to intervene appropriately. HIV molecular epidemiology tools as implemented in phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses have proven to be powerful tools in public health planning across many studies. Numerous applications with HIV suggest that molecular methods alone or in combination with mathematical modelling can provide inferences about the transmission dynamics, critical epidemiological parameters (prevalence, incidence, effective number of infections, Re, generation times, time between infection and diagnosis), or the spatiotemporal characteristics of epidemics. Molecular tools have been used to assess the impact of an intervention and outbreak investigation which are of great public health relevance. In some settings, molecular sequence data may be more readily available than HIV surveillance data, and can therefore allow for molecular analyses to be conducted more easily. Nonetheless, classic methods have an integral role in monitoring and evaluation of public health programmes, and should supplement emerging techniques from the field of molecular epidemiology. Importantly, molecular epidemiology remains a promising approach in responding to viral diseases.

Getting the balance right: Scaling-up treatment and prevention

The goals of the international response to control the HIV epidemic include high antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage with HIV viral suppression, as well as reduction of new infections. ART use at individual and population levels reduces HIV morbidity and mortality and likely reduces HIV incidence. HIV viral suppression requires high levels of ART adherence, which necessitates support through behavioural and structural interventions to optimise effectiveness of the use of ART for prevention. Many people living with HIV remain unaware that they are HIV-infected, and HIV transmission risk is high during early infection, therefore ART expansion should be accompanied by other interventions in order to achieve the promise of treatment for prevention. Biomedical and behavioural prevention efforts focused on HIV-uninfected individuals at substantial risk of HIV acquisition are also needed to control the epidemic. Maintaining prevention programming is essential during the scale up of ART to reduce HIV transmission.

Higher HIV RNA Viral Load in Recent Patients with Symptomatic Acute HIV Infection in Lyon University Hospitals

Introduction

Increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) virulence at infection has been suggested by a meta-analysis based on viral load and CD4 T lymphocytes (CD4) count during acute infection. This result was obtained after secondary analyses of large databases, facilitating the detection of differences. Similar finding in cohorts of more modest sample size would indicate that the effect could be more substantial.

Methods

Change from initial CD4 count and HIV viral load after acute HIV infection by calendar year was explored in patients treated at Lyon University hospitals. All patients admitted to our hospitals with acute HIV infection between 1996 and 2013 were included in our study. Initial CD4 count and viral load before the start of anti-retroviral treatment were analyzed. Trends over time were assessed in linear models.

Results

Initial CD4 count remained similar over time. However, in 2006–2013, initial viral load rose significantly (+1.12 log₁₀/ml/year, p = 0.01).

Conclusion

Our data, obtained from a single hospital cohort, confirmed findings from a large meta-analysis, showed increased initial viremia at acute HIV infection since 2006 and suggesting potentially higher HIV virulence in recent years.