Transition to Self-compatibility Associated With Dominant S-allele in a Diploid Siberian Progenitor of Allotetraploid Arabidopsis kamchatica Revealed by Arabidopsis lyrata Genomes

A transition to selfing can be beneficial when mating partners are scarce, for example, due to ploidy changes or at species range edges. Here, we explain how self-compatibility evolved in diploid Siberian Arabidopsis lyrata, and how it contributed to the establishment of allotetraploid Arabidopsis kamchatica. First, we provide chromosome-level genome assemblies for two self-fertilizing diploid A. lyrata accessions, one from North America and one from Siberia, including a fully assembled S-locus for the latter. We then propose a sequence of events leading to the loss of self-incompatibility in Siberian A. lyrata, date this independent transition to ∼90 Kya, and infer evolutionary relationships between Siberian and North American A. lyrata, showing an independent transition to selfing in Siberia. Finally, we provide evidence that this selfing Siberian A. lyrata lineage contributed to the formation of the allotetraploid A. kamchatica and propose that the selfing of the latter is mediated by the loss-of-function mutation in a dominant S-allele inherited from A. lyrata.

Measuring the accuracy of population forecasts

The accuracy of population projections is discussed, with specific reference to population forecasts for development planning purposes. The author notes that errors in making population forecasts depend on the parameter values used in the calculations, and that such errors can be avoided if the demographic models used are seen not as stochastic but as models with random parameters. "For such models the present article derives estimations of the covariance matrices of forecasts of the social and age composition of the population."