Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980 793 adults from 68 prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men.

METHODS

In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes.

RESULTS

Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980 793 adults. During 9·8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19 686 (25·6%) of 76 965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2·10, 95% CI 1·97-2·24) and tripled risk among women (3·00, 2·71-3·33; χ2 test for heterogeneity p<0·0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35-59 years: 2·60, 2·30-2·94) than in older individuals (aged 70-89 years: 2·01, 1·85-2·19; p=0·0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35-59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5·55, 4·15-7·44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35-59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0·05% (95% CI 0·03-0·07) per year in women compared with 0·08% (0·05-0·10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70-89 years was 1·08% (0·84-1·32) per year in women and 0·91% (0·77-1·05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes.

INTERPRETATION

Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union BIOMED programme, and National Institute on Aging (US National Institutes of Health).

A Role for Behavior in the Relationships Between Depression and Hostility and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence, Mortality, and All-Cause Mortality: the Prime Study

Background

Behavioral factors are important in disease incidence and mortality and may explain associations between mortality and various psychological traits.

Purpose

These analyses investigated the impact of behavioral factors on the associations between depression, hostility and cardiovascular disease(CVD) incidence, CVD mortality, and all-cause mortality.

Methods

Data from the PRIME Study (N = 6953 men) were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models, following adjustment for demographic and biological CVD risk factors, and other psychological traits, including social support.

Results

Following initial adjustment, both depression and hostility were significantly associated with both mortality outcomes (smallest SHR = 1.24, p < 0.001). Following adjustment for behavioral factors, all relationships were attenuated both when accounting for and not accounting for other psychological variables. Associations with all-cause mortality remained significant (smallest SHR = 1.14, p = 0.04). Of the behaviors included, the most significant contribution to outcomes was found for smoking, but a role was also found for fruit and vegetable intakes and high alcohol consumption.

Conclusions

These findings demonstrate well-known associations between depression, hostility, and mortality and suggest the potential importance of behaviors in explaining these relationships.

Depression and mortality: artifact of measurement and analysis?

BACKGROUND

Previous research demonstrates various associations between depression, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality, possibly as a result of the different methodologies used to measure depression and analyse relationships. This analysis investigated the association between depression, CVD incidence (CVDI) and mortality from CVD (MCVD), smoking related conditions (MSRC), and all causes (MALL), in a sample data set, where depression was measured using items from a validated questionnaire and using items derived from the factor analysis of a larger questionnaire, and analyses were conducted based on continuous data and grouped data.

METHODS

Data from the PRIME Study (N=9798 men) on depression and 10-year CVD incidence and mortality were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Using continuous data, both measures of depression resulted in the emergence of positive associations between depression and mortality (MCVD, MSRC, MALL). Using grouped data, however, associations between a validated measure of depression and MCVD, and between a measure of depression derived from factor analysis and all measures of mortality were lost.

LIMITATIONS

Low levels of depression, low numbers of individuals with high depression and low numbers of outcome events may limit these analyses, but levels are usual for the population studied.

CONCLUSIONS

These data demonstrate a possible association between depression and mortality but detecting this association is dependent on the measurement used and method of analysis. Different findings based on methodology present clear problems for the elucidation and determination of relationships. The differences here argue for the use of validated scales where possible and suggest against over-reduction via factor analysis and grouping.

Systemic chemokine levels, coronary heart disease, and ischemic stroke events: the PRIME study

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the association between systemic levels of the chemokine regulated on activation normal T-cell expressed and secreted (RANTES/CCL5), interferon-γ-inducible protein-10 (IP-10/CXCL10), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1/CCL2), and eotaxin-1 (CCL11) with future coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke events and to assess their usefulness for CHD and ischemic stroke risk prediction in the PRIME Study.

METHODS

After 10 years of follow-up of 9,771 men, 2 nested case-control studies were built including 621 first CHD events and 1,242 matched controls and 95 first ischemic stroke events and 190 matched controls. Standardized hazard ratios (HRs) for each log-transformed chemokine were estimated by conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

None of the 4 chemokines were independent predictors of CHD, either with respect to stable angina or to acute coronary syndrome. Conversely, RANTES (HR = 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.74), IP-10 (HR = 1.53; 95% CI 1.06-2.20), and eotaxin-1 (HR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.02-2.46), but not MCP-1 (HR = 0.99; 95% CI 0.68-1.46), were associated with ischemic stroke independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, hs-CRP, and fibrinogen. When the first 3 chemokines were included in the same multivariate model, RANTES and IP-10 remained predictive of ischemic stroke. Their addition to a traditional risk factor model predicting ischemic stroke substantially improved the C-statistic from 0.6756 to 0.7425 (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

In asymptomatic men, higher systemic levels of RANTES and IP-10 are independent predictors of ischemic stroke but not of CHD events. RANTES and IP-10 may improve the accuracy of ischemic stroke risk prediction over traditional risk factors.

Predicting CHD risk in France: a pooled analysis of the D.E.S.I.R., Three City, PRIME, and SU.VI.MAX studies

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop and validate a simple coronary heart disease (CHD) risk algorithm applicable to asymptomatic men and women in France, and to compare its accuracy with that of the last published version of the Framingham risk function for cardiovascular disease.

DESIGN

A pooled analysis of four French prospective general-population studies.

METHODS

The baseline and follow-up data from D.E.S.I.R., PRIME, Three City, and SU.VI.MAX studies were used. The 10-year CHD risk was estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model with candidate variables including age, gender, body mass index, waist circumference, family history of coronary heart disease, smoking status, diabetes status, systolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol.

RESULTS

The study population included 22,256 subjects (61.4% men) aged (SD) 56.0 years (8.3) without a personal history of CHD at baseline. After a mean follow-up of 8.0 years (2.3), 788 first CHD events occurred, 726 in men and 62 in women. The final model included age, gender, age × gender interaction, current smoking status, diabetes status, systolic blood pressure, total and HDL cholesterol. Using this model, the number of predicted coronary events fitted that given by the 10-year Kaplan-Meier survival estimates within each decile of estimated risk (calibration). This model had fair discrimination: Harrell C-index, 0.7831 (95% CI: 0.7704-0.7957). For comparison, the recalibrated Framingham risk function had equivalent performances compared to the French risk equation.

CONCLUSION

Our 10-year French CHD risk equation based on traditional risk factors performed at least as well as the recalibrated Framingham cardiovascular disease risk function.

Waist circumference and obesity-related abnormalities in French and Cameroonian adults: the role of urbanization and ethnicity

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effect of urbanization and ethnicity on correlations between waist circumference (WC) and obesity-related cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS

1471 rural and urban Cameroonians, and 4185 French, from community-based studies, aged > or =25 years, not treated for hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia participated in this study. Slopes of obesity-related abnormalities with WC were compared using an interaction term between place of residence and WC.

RESULTS

Women in urban Cameroon and men in France had significantly higher WC and BMI relative to their gender counterparts. Urban Cameroonians had higher abdominal adiposity, but lower BP and better metabolic profile than the French. WC was positively associated to all the obesity-related abnormalities in the three sites except to FPG (both genders) and blood lipids (women) in rural Cameroon. A 5 cm larger WC was associated with a higher increment among urban than rural Cameroonians for diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (women, 1.95/0.63 mm Hg; men, 2.56/1.44 mm Hg), HOMA-IR (women, 0.11/0.05), fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (men, 0.09/-0.01 mmol/l) and triglycerides (women, 0.06/0.01 mmol/l; men, 0.09/0.03 mmol/l), all P<0.05. A 5 cm larger WC was associated with a higher increment among urban Cameroon than French people for DBP (women, 1.95/1.28 mm Hg, P<0.01; men, 2.56/1.49 mm Hg, P<0.01), but with a lower increment for HOMA-IR (women, 0.11/0.14, P<0.05), FPG (women, 0.05/0.09 mmol/l), total cholesterol (women, 0.07/0.11 mmol/l; men, 0.10/0.13 mmol/l) and triglycerides (women, 0.06/0.11 mmol/l; men, 0.09/0.13 mmol/l) all P<0.05.

CONCLUSION

Ethnicity and urbanization modify the association of WC with obesity-related metabolic abnormalities. WC cutoff points derived from Caucasians may not be appropriate for black Sub-Saharan Africans.

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154 012 participants in 31 cohorts.† Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Depressed mood and dietary fish intake: direct relationship or indirect relationship as a result of diet and lifestyle?

Previous studies have suggested an association between depressed mood and the dietary intake of fish. In all cases, however, dietary fish intake has been considered at the exclusion of all other aspects of the diet. This analysis investigates associations between depressed mood and dietary fish intake, while also concurrently investigating intake of a number of other dietary components. The analysis is conducted on data from 10,602 men from Northern Ireland and France screened for inclusion into the PRIME cohort study. Depressed mood was assessed using a self-report questionnaire based on the Welsh Pure Depression sub-scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory, diet was assessed using a Food Frequency Questionnaire, and limited demographics were also measured. Using regression, depressed mood is initially inversely associated with dietary fish intake. On inclusion of all other dietary variables, the strength of this relationship reduces but remains, and significant associations with a number of other foods are also found. On additional inclusion of all demographic variables, the strength of the above relationships again reduces, and associations with various measures of socio-economic status and education are also significant. These findings suggest that depressed mood is associated with fish intake both directly, and indirectly as part of a diet that is associated with depression and as part of a lifestyle that is associated with depression. Additional support for these conclusions is also provided in the pattern of associations between depressed mood and diet in the two countries. The relative contributions of fish intake to depressed mood both directly and indirectly are yet to be determined. However, while diet is not measured and until lifestyle can be adequately measured, the potential roles of diet and lifestyle in the association between depressed mood and dietary fish intake should not be ignored.

Relationship between gamma-glutamyltransferase and fat mass in a general population of 8–17 years old children. The FLVS II study

AIM

Elevated gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is positively associated with severity of obesity in obese children and with increased BMI and waist circumference in general populations of adults. We aimed to study the relationships between GGT and anthropometric parameters in a general population of children.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in 219 boys and 214 girls included in the Fleurbaix Laventie Ville Santé II study. Weight, height, four skinfolds and waist circumference were measured. We compared the means of GGT activity according to gender and Tanner stage, and according to overweight status (IOTF definition) and quartiles of anthropometric parameters. We then calculated partial Pearson correlations by gender between GGT and anthropometric parameters taking age and Tanner stage into account.

RESULTS

GGT activity was higher in boys than in girls as soon as puberty started (P<0.001). The higher difference was observed for Tanner stage III (GGT=10.2 UI/L, CI95% of mean (9.5, 11.1) vs. 7.8 UI/L (7.2, 8.4)). Anthropometric parameters were significantly associated with GGT, particularly waist circumference (r=0.28 in boys; r=0.24 in girls). After an additional adjustment for sum of skinfolds, this correlation disappeared in boys (r=0.06), and was still significant in girls (r=0.19).

CONCLUSION

In a general population of children, overweight and abdominal fat distribution were associated with increased GGT. As some studies have shown that GGT could predict the metabolic syndrome in children and type 2 diabetes in adults, the modest elevation of GGT observed in overweight children may be of pathophysiological importance in the long term.

The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases

Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.

Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data.

DATA SOURCES

Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators.

STUDY SELECTION

All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded.

DATA EXTRACTION

Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

TAFI gene haplotypes, TAFI plasma levels and future risk of coronary heart disease: the PRIME Study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association of thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI) gene polymorphisms with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and with TAFI levels measured by a newly developed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (TAFI-1B1), shown to be a reliable method for detecting quantitative variations in circulating TAFI.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Six polymorphisms (C-2599G, G-438A, Ala147Thr, Thr325Ile, C + 1542G and T + 1583A) were genotyped and baseline plasma concentrations of TAFI were measured in a nested case-control design as part of the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) Study. Participants from France and Northern Ireland who had developed a CHD event during a 5-year follow-up (n = 321) were compared with 645 population- and age-matched control subjects.

RESULTS

In France, the Thr147 allele was more frequent in cases than in controls (0.41 vs. 0.32; P = 0.02), whereas the reverse was observed in Northern Ireland (0.33 vs. 0.38; P = 0.19) (P = 0.01 for interaction). No other polymorphism was associated with CHD risk. Consistent with the results derived from the single-locus analysis, haplotype analysis revealed that the haplotype carrying the Thr147 allele was associated with increased risk of CHD in France while the reverse tended to hold in the Northern Ireland population. Single-locus and haplotype analyses revealed that two polymorphisms, C-2599G and Ala147Thr (or T + 1583A that is in nearly complete association with it), had additive effects on TAFI levels and explained >18% of TAFI variability. This effect was homogeneous in France and Northern Ireland, and in cases and controls who exhibited similar TAFI levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor gene polymorphisms are strongly associated to plasma TAFI levels, but the relation to CHD risk is less clear.

Contributions of Depressive Mood and Circulating Inflammatory Markers to Coronary Heart Disease in Healthy European Men

Background— Data on the possible association between depressive disorders and inflammatory markers are scarce and inconsistent. We investigated whether subjects with depressive mood had higher levels of a wide range of inflammatory markers involved in coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and examined the contribution of these inflammatory markers and depressive mood to CHD outcome.

Methods and Results— We built a nested case-referent study within the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) study of healthy middle-aged men from Belfast and France. We considered the baseline plasma sample from 335 future cases (angina pectoris, nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary death) and 670 matched controls (2 controls per case). Depressive mood characterized men whose baseline depression score (13-item modification of the Welsh depression subscale) was in the fourth quartile (mean score, 5.75; range, 4 to 12). On average, men with depressive mood had 46%, 16%, and 10% higher C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 levels, respectively, independently of case-control status, social characteristics, and classic cardiovascular risk factors; no statistical difference was found for fibrinogen. The odds ratios of depressive mood for CHD were 1.35 (95% CI, 1.05 to 1.73) in univariate analysis and 1.50 (95% CI, 1.04 to 2.15) after adjustment for social characteristics and classic cardiovascular risk factors. The latter odds ratio remained unchanged when each inflammatory marker was added separately, and in this analysis, each inflammatory marker contributed significantly to CHD event risk.

Conclusions— These data support an association of depressive mood with inflammatory markers and suggest that depressive mood is related to CHD even after adjustment for these inflammatory markers.

Sagittal abdominal diameter and risk of sudden death in asymptomatic middle-aged men: the Paris Prospective Study I

BACKGROUND

Abdominal (visceral) and overall obesity are both related to coronary heart disease mortality risk; however, the relative contribution of these 2 components of fat deposit in the etiology of sudden death is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used the data from 7079 asymptomatic men of the Paris Prospective Study I who were free of ischemic heart disease and who were 43 to 52 years of age at first clinical examination between 1967 and 1972. Body mass index (BMI) and sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) were measured at baseline and used as markers of overall and abdominal obesity. During a follow-up of 23 years, there were 118 sudden deaths and 192 fatal myocardial infarctions. After adjustment for baseline level of cardiovascular risk factors, trunk subcutaneous fat, and thoracic diameter, the ratio of the fifth over the first quintile of SAD was 2.6 (95% CI 1.0 to 6.7) and 2. 6 (95% CI 1.3 to 5.1) for sudden death and fatal myocardial infarction, respectively, and the risk of sudden death increased proportionally with SAD level. The corresponding ratios for BMI were 2.0 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.8) and 1.0 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.7), respectively. Compared with men with low SAD (first tertile) and normal BMI (<25 kg/m2), men with elevated SAD (third tertile) were at increased risk of sudden death but not of fatal myocardial infarction, whether they were of normal weight (multivariate adjusted relative risk 3. 0 [95% CI 1.3 to 6. 9]) or overweight (BMI > or =25 kg/m2; 1.9 [95% CI 1.0 to 3.9]).

CONCLUSIONS

In asymptomatic French middle-aged men, larger SAD was associated with a particularly increased risk of sudden death, independent of BMI level and known cardiovascular risk factors.

TLR4/Asp299Gly, CD14/C-260T, plasma levels of the soluble receptor CD14 and the risk of coronary heart disease: The PRIME Study

TLR4 and CD14 are two components of the LPS receptor complex, which are considered to play a key role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. TLR4/Asp299Gly and CD14/C-260T polymorphisms are thought to modulate the activity of this complex. The aim of the study was to examine the association between the TLR4/Asp299Gly and CD14/C-260T polymorphisms, plasma levels of the soluble receptor CD14 (sCD14), and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a prospective cohort (the PRIME Study) of 9758 healthy men aged 50-59 years recruited in France and Northern Ireland. A nested case-control design was used, comparing the 249 participants who developed a CHD event during the 5-year follow-up with 492 population- and age-matched control subjects. The two polymorphisms were genotyped and baseline plasma concentrations of sCD14 were measured. None of the two polymorphisms, or sCD14 levels, either considered alone or in combination, were associated with the risk of CHD. The CD14/C-260T allele was associated with increased plasma concentrations of soluble thrombomodulin and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 and, to a lesser extent, sCD14. No relationship was observed between the TLR4 polymorphism and, any of the inflammatory and endothelial markers measured. The TLR4/Asp299Gly and CD14/C-260T polymorphisms and plasma sCD14 concentrations do not appear as significant predictors of the risk of CHD in healthy individuals.

Endothelial Cell Markers and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease

Background— Tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI), von Willebrand factor (vWF), and thrombomodulin (TM) are 3 major hemostatic regulatory molecules synthesized by endothelium. Data from epidemiological studies aiming to evaluate the relation between plasma levels of these molecules and the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) are sparse or contradictory.

Methods and Results— We examined the association between these endothelial-cell markers and the incidence of fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction (hard CHD) and stable or unstable angina (angina pectoris) in a prospective cohort (the PRIME Study) of nearly 10 000 healthy men recruited in France and Northern Ireland. We measured baseline plasma concentration of the free form of TFPI (f-TFPI), vWF, and the soluble form of TM (sTM) among 296 participants who subsequently developed CHD over the 5-year follow-up (158 with hard CHD and 142 with angina pectoris) and in 563 control subjects by use of a nested case-control design. Individuals with plasma vWF levels in the highest quartile showed a 3.04-fold increase in the risk of hard CHD compared with those in the lowest quartile (95% CI, 1.59 to 5.80). Individuals with f-TFPI levels below the 10th percentile had a 2.13-fold increased risk of hard CHD compared with those with levels above it (95% CI, 1.08 to 4.18). The risk for both molecules persisted after control for inflammatory parameters. Individuals with vWF levels in the highest quartile and f-TFPI levels below the 10th percentile presented a 6.9-fold increased risk of hard CHD compared with those with vWF levels in the lowest quartile and f-TFPI levels above the 10th percentile (95% CI, 1.3 to 37.8).

Conclusions— vWF and f-TFPI plasma levels were independent risk factors for hard CHD events.

Psychosocial risk factors for heart disease in France and Northern Ireland: the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME)

BACKGROUND

France has a substantially lower level of premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) relative to its comparators. Compared with Northern Ireland, France has one-half the rate, despite having a similar cardiovascular risk profile to Northern Ireland. In this prospective longitudinal study the psychosocial risk hypothesis for CVD was tested.

METHOD

A cohort of 9758 men (7359 in France and 2399 in Northern Ireland) aged 50-59 years who were initially free of any CVD were recruited. At baseline the subjects completed a psychosocial questionnaire, measuring hostility, depression, social support, and the Type A behaviour pattern. At 5-years follow-up their clinical status was determined.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis indicated that, contrary to prediction, France had a substantially more negative psychosocial risk profile than Northern Ireland. The psychosocial risk factors were not successful at predicting at 5-years follow-up the hard clinical endpoint of definite fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction. In the case of the softer clinical endpoint, angina pectoris/unstable angina, only depression predicted outcome with a small effect size.

CONCLUSION

The findings provide little support for the psychosocial risk hypothesis. The psychosocial risk profile was more negative in France, the opposite of that predicted. The finding of a relationship between depression and angina may reflect a tendency for individuals who respond negatively on mood state to report more cardiac symptoms irrespective of physical disease state.

Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in hypertensive patients

Although various studies reported that pulse pressure, an indirect index of arterial stiffening, was an independent risk factor for mortality, a direct relationship between arterial stiffness and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality remained to be established in patients with essential hypertension. A cohort of 1980 essential hypertensive patients who attended the outpatient hypertension clinic of Broussais Hospital between 1980 and 1996 and who had a measurement of arterial stiffness was studied. At entry, aortic stiffness was assessed from the measurement of carotid-femoral pulse-wave velocity (PWV). A logistic regression model was used to estimate the relative risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths. Selection of classic risk factors for adjustment of PWV was based on their influence on mortality in this cohort in univariate analysis. Mean age at entry was 50+/-13 years (mean+/-SD). During an average follow-up of 112+/-53 months, 107 fatal events occurred. Among them, 46 were of cardiovascular origin. PWV was significantly associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a univariate model of logistic regression analysis (odds ratio for 5 m/s PWV was 2.14 [95% confidence interval, 1.71 to 2.67, P<0.0001] and 2.35 [95% confidence interval, 1.76 to 3.14, P<0.0001], respectively). In multivariate models of logistic regression analysis, PWV was significantly associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, independent of previous cardiovascular diseases, age, and diabetes. By contrast, pulse pressure was not significantly and independently associated to mortality. This study provides the first direct evidence that aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with essential hypertension.

Prevalence of type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in the middle-aged population of three French regions - The MONICA study 1995-97

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in a population-based sample of 3 508 subjects, aged 35-64 years, participating in the French MONICA population survey from 1995 to 1997 in three French regions: the Urban Community of Lille, the Bas-Rhin and the Haute-Garonne.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Previously diagnosed type 2 diabetes is defined by the current use of oral hypoglycaemic treatment and newly diagnosed subjects by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) > or =7.0 mmol/L according to the ADA 1997 recommendations. IFG was determined by 6.1< or =FPG< or =6.9 mmol/L. Adjusted prevalences are calculated according to the French 1990 census data.

RESULTS

Type 2 diabetes adjusted prevalence is 5.1% [4.1-6.1] in women and 7.3% [6.1-8.4] in men while IFG adjusted prevalence is 5.2% [4.2-6.2] and 11.8% [10.3-13.4] respectively. Prevalences of type 2 diabetes and IFG are both significantly higher in men than in women. This trend appears in any age group for IFG, but is only observed in 55-64 year-old subjects for type 2 diabetes. The reduction of the FPG threshold to screen diabetes mellitus from 7.8 to 7.0 mmol/L according to the ADA recommendations results in a 2.2-fold increase in the number of newly diagnosed diabetic subjects, screened by one FPG measurement, in our population-based sample.

CONCLUSIONS

The MONICA population survey confirms that type 2 diabetes represents a major health care problem in France and underlines the influence of gender on the prevalence of both type 2 diabetes and IFG in the French middle-aged population.

The relationship between apolipoprotein AI-containing lipoprotein fractions and environmental factors: the prospective epidemiological study of myocardial infarction (PRIME study)

Apolipoprotein (apo) AI is distributed within high-density lipoproteins (HDL) between different types of particles, one containing both apoAI and apoAII (LpAI:AII), the other containing no apoAII (LpAI). We investigated the associations between LpAI and LpAI:AII with several factors such as body mass index (BMI), waist to hip ratio (WHR), alcohol intake, cigarette consumption and physical activity, in three French and one Northern Irish male populations included in a prospective study (PRIME study). LpAI and LpAI:AII were associated with variations in all environmental factors, except LpAI:AII, which was not associated with WHR. These relationships were unchanged after adjustment for other environmental factors, but slightly modified after adjustment for triglyceride levels. LpAI decreased when BMI, WHR and cigarette smoking increased, and increased with alcohol consumption and physical activity. LpAI:AII had a similar variation except for the absence of LpAI:AII modification associated with WHR variation. The associations between LpAI and BMI, alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking were largely dependent on HDL-cholesterol as indicated by the lack of any significance when the adjustment for HDL-cholesterol was made. Conversely, after adjustment for HDL-cholesterol, the significant association between LpAI:AII and BMI disappeared, while the associations between LpAI:AII and alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking and physical activity remained significant. These results suggest that the mechanisms of LpAI and LpAI:AII modulations differ according to each environmental factor, some dependent on the lipid content of lipoproteins and others not, but LpAI and LpAI:AII levels seem independent of triglyceride concentration.

Idiopathic atrial fibrillation as a risk factor for mortality. The Paris Prospective Study I

AIMS

Idiopathic atrial fibrillation describes atrial fibrillation of unknown origin occurring without heart disease. Mortality is considered unaffected by idiopathic atrial fibrillation. We used the long follow-up period (23 years on average) of the Paris Prospective Study I to assess the mortality of idiopathic atrial fibrillation subjects in middle-aged men.

METHODS

7746 working Frenchmen, aged 43-52 in 1967-72, underwent a physical examination plus ECG, answered questionnaires, and provided blood samples. Strict exclusion criteria were used to select idiopathic atrial fibrillation only, and men with known cardiac disease were further excluded from analysis. At 1 January 1994, vital status was unknown for 4.6% of the subjects. The analysis was conducted on the 6722 remaining subjects.

RESULTS

Twenty-five subjects had idiopathic atrial fibrillation at inclusion. The relative risk (and 95% confidence interval) associated with idiopathic atrial fibrillation was 4.22 [2.10-8.47] for cardiovascular mortality (P=0.0001) and 1. 97 [1.14-3.40] for total mortality (P=0.01). When age, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index and tobacco consumption were entered into a Cox model, idiopathic atrial fibrillation remained an independent risk factor for cardiovascular (P=0.0008) and total death (P=0.04).

CONCLUSION

With a long follow-up period, idiopathic atrial fibrillation was associated with higher mortality in middle aged Frenchmen.

Is there a glycemic threshold for mortality risk?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether there are thresholds for fasting and for 2-h glucose above which the risk of death from all causes and from coronary heart disease (CHD) increases.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied 23-year mortality data from the Paris Prospective Study of the 7,018 men, aged 44-55 years, who were not known as diabetic at the baseline examination. The effect of glucose concentrations on mortality was studied using the observed relative risks and an age-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

For all causes of death, there were J-shaped relationships with both fasting and 2-h glucose concentrations, and the lowest observed death rates were in the intervals centered on 5.5 mmol/l for fasting glucose and 5.0 mmol/l for 2-h glucose. The death rates for CHD were low in this population: for fasting glucose, the hazards ratio was best modeled by a positive linear relationship; for 2-h glucose, it was modeled by a J-shaped curve and the lowest observed death rate was in the interval centered on 6.0 mmol/l.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Paris Prospective Study, there were no clear thresholds for fasting or 2-h glucose concentrations above which mortality sharply increased; in the upper levels of the glucose distributions, the risk of death progressively increased with increasing fasting and 2-h glucose concentrations.

[Cholesterolemia and total, cardiovascular and cancer mortality. Study of a cohort of 220,000 people]

The distribution of cholesterolemia and their relationship to total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cancer mortality were studied in a population of 125,513 men and 96,301 women, aged 16-90. Cholesterolemia in the population increases with age, up to age 50-60 for men and 60-70 for women. Beyond these ages, cholesterolemia decreases very significantly for men and moderately for women. Upon global examination of the entire population, the relationship between cholesterolemia and total mortality is observed as a U-shaped curve. The relationship with cancer mortality is slightly negative in men and appears as a U-shaped curve in women. The relationship with cardiovascular mortality in men is strongly positively correlated when adjusted for body mass index, blood pressure, tobacco consumption, gamma GT, and age. This relationship is not significant in women. There is a significant interaction in the relationship between cholesterolemia and mortality in men for weight, body mass index, vital capacity, maximum expiration volume per second, tobacco consumption, urea, serum albumin, hematocrit, hemoglobin, alkaline phosphatases, gamma GT, red cell volume, and sedimentation rate. Age is a fundamental variable to take into account. Thus, in men under 50 years of age at the time of inclusion, the relationship between cholesterolemia and total mortality shows a positive tendency, and the relationship with cardiovascular mortality is strongly positive. In men over 65 years of age, these relationships are negative. The same tendencies exist for cancer mortality. The reasons for these negative relationships may be related to the decreased cholesterol levels in subjects with malnutrition or diseases (essentially hepatic diseases); this is especially true in older subjects. These data push for additional in-depth analysis of these relationships and interactions, according to age categories and detailed causes of mortality. They also reinforce the idea that, in some patients, low cholesterolemia appears to be a marker for predisposition or the result, but not a cause, of cancer.

Distribution of apolipoprotein E between apo B- and non apo B-containing lipoproteins according to apo E phenotype

Apolipoprotein E (apo E) is a component of all the classes of lipoproteins and can be distributed among apo B- (LpB) and non apo B-containing lipoproteins (Lp-non-B). Using a new electroimmunoassay kit, plasma apo E, apo E in Lp-non-B (apo E-Lp-non-B) and apo E in LpB (apo E-LpB) levels were measured in healthy control subjects (n=481) from 3 centers participating in the ECTIM study (Etude Cas-Témoins sur l'Infarctus du Myocarde), a population-based study on myocardial infarction. The distribution of apo E among lipoproteins was analyzed according to the apo E phenotype after adjustment for center, body mass index, tobacco use, alcohol consumption and triglycerides. Apo E was higher (average excess: + 0.32; P < 0.0001) and lower (average excess: -0.12; P < 0.0001) in subjects carrying the allele epsilon2 and the allele epsilon4 respectively, than in apo E3/3 subjects. These differences are the consequence of variations in apo E-Lp-non-B which clearly differed between the groups classified according to their apo E phenotype (P < 0.0001). The average excess of apo E Lp non-B compared to apo E3/3 subjects was + 0.43 (P < 0.0001) and -0.22 (P < 0.0001) for the epsilon2 and epsilon4 alleles respectively. Apo E-LpB was lower in subjects carrying the epsilon2 allele (P < 0.02) while the presence of the epsilon4 allele did not modify this parameter. The proportion of apo E within HDL was clearly higher and lower in subjects carrying apo E2 and apo E4 respectively than in apo E3/3 subjects. Although triglyceride levels were dependent on the apo E phenotype, the adjustment of the proportion of apo E in HDL for triglycerides hardly modified the results. For the first time, these results, using direct measurements on a large number of subjects, confirm the greater preference of apo E4 over apo E2 for LpB and vice versa for Lp-non-B. They also show a greater affinity of apo E2 for HDL compared to apo E3. This high affinity of apo E2 for HDL could be due to the formation of the apo E-A-II complex. These results indicate that apo E phenotype modulates the distribution of apo E among lipoproteins and suggest differences in lipoprotein metabolism between apo E2, apo E3 and apo E4.

Plasma homocyst(e)ine levels and graded risk for myocardial infarction: findings in two populations at contrasting risk for coronary heart disease

Standardized mortality rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) in men are about 3-fold higher in Northern Ireland than in France. The differences could not be explained by the presence of conventional risk factors for atherosclerosis. We studied in subjects from these two countries, an additional risk factor, namely, concentration of plasma homocyst(e)ine which is frequently elevated in patients with CHD. We measured the plasma concentration of homocyst(e)ine in survivors of myocardial infarction (MI) and in control subjects from the Belfast, Strasbourg and Lille regions. Plasma homocyst(e)ine levels were higher in the Irish than in the French controls; subjects with MI had higher levels than controls. Results were compatible with global excess of risk for MI being graded across the distribution of plasma homocyst(e)ine concentrations, although the trends lost significance in Belfast after adjustment for other risk factors. The higher plasma homocyst(e)ine concentrations we observed in the Irish population could be the reason for the different CHD mortality rates. This epidemiological observation could prompt dietary and vitamin supplementation studies aimed at decreasing homocyst(e)ine levels as well as the incidence of arterial occlusive disease, under controlled conditions in high risk populations.

Ultrasonographic assessment of carotid wall characteristics and cognitive functions in a community sample of 59- to 71-year-olds. The EVA Study Group

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study was aimed at analyzing cross-sectional relationships between cognitive performance and ultrasonographic assessment of carotid wall characteristics.

METHODS

A cohort of 1279 subjects (men, 41%) aged 59 to 71 years was recruited from the electoral rolls of the city of Nantes (western France). Cognitive performances were evaluated with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and seven neuropsychological tests assessing attention, psychomotor rapidity, verbal abilities, memory, and visuospatial perception. For each test, subjects were classified into three performance levels with a quartile distribution: 25% highest, 25% lowest, and 50% middle. The intima-media thickness of common carotid arteries and the presence of plaques in the carotid arteries were assessed with B-mode ultrasound examination.

RESULTS

Only 28% of men and 17% of women had carotid plaques inducing moderate stenosis of the lumen ( < 40%). After adjustment for possible confounders, odds ratios for poor cognitive performance associated with plaques were above 1 for all cognitive tests in men. This association was statistically significant for the MMSE and another test assessing attention skills. There was a slight association between increase of the common carotid intima-media thickness and poor cognitive scores in men with plaques. In women, no association was found between cognitive functions and presence of plaques or intima-media thickness.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated a moderate association between atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries and poor cognitive functioning in men aged 59 to 71 years. In view of these moderate cross-sectional results, further studies are required to better assess the relationship between carotid atherosclerosis and cognitive impairment.

Weights at birth and in early infancy, systolic pressure, and left ventricular structure in subjects aged 8 to 24 years

The objective of this study was to determine whether systolic pressure and left ventricular mass in children, adolescents, and young adults are related to fetal and infant growth. Blood pressure measurements and M-mode echocardiography were performed in 210 subjects aged 8 to 24 years whose information on weights at birth and in early infancy, written by physicians, was obtained from the children's health record booklets. Systolic pressure, adjusted for sex and current height or for sex, current age, weight, and height, was the highest in subjects with low birth weight. No association was observed between systolic pressure and weight at either 9 months or 2 years. Left ventricular mass, adjusted for sex and current height or for sex, current age, weight, and height, increased with decreasing weight at 9 months or 2 years, independent of systolic pressure. Increased ventricular mass associated with reduced infant growth was concentric, resulting from a proportionate thickening of the posterior wall and interventricular septum. Left ventricular mass was not related to birth weight. These findings were observed in both sexes and in all age subgroups and were independent of gestational age, birth order, and parental risk factors. This study supports the hypothesis that systolic pressure and left ventricular mass might be partly determined during fetal life and early infancy. The mechanisms that underlie the associations of blood pressure and left ventricular structure with weights at birth and in early infancy should be studied thoroughly.

Apolipoproteins C-III and E in apoB- and non-apoB-containing lipoproteins in two populations at contrasting risk for myocardial infarction: the ECTIM study. Etude Cas Témoins sur 'Infarctus du Myocarde

Apolipoprotein (apo) C-III and apoE are components of two major classes of plasma lipoproteins, i.e., apoB- and non-apoB-containing lipoproteins. To analyze the relationship between the distribution of apoC-III and apoE among lipoproteins and coronary heart disease, we compared the distribution of these two apolipoproteins in survivors of myocardial infarction (MI) and control subjects, within and between populations at contrasting risk for MI. ApoC-III and apoE concentrations were determined in plasma devoid of apoB-containing lipoproteins by immunoprecipitation using a specific anti-apoB antiserum. These assays referred to apoC-III-Lp non-B and apoE-Lp non-B, respectively. By examining the difference with total plasma apoC-III and apoE levels, we calculated apoC-III and apoE in apoB-containing lipoproteins (apoCIII-LpB and apoE-LpB, respectively). These determinations were performed in control subjects and in survivors of MI, all males aged 25 to 64 years. They were recruited in Northern Ireland and France, countries characterized by a large difference in the incidence of coronary heart disease. In univariate analysis, apoCIII-LpB appeared significantly higher and the apoC-III ratio (apoC-III-Lp non-B/apoC-III-LpB) significantly lower in MI survivors than in control subjects in both countries. ApoE-LpB was higher in MI survivors than in control subjects in Northern Ireland but not in France. The two French and Irish control populations differed for apoC-ILL-Lp non-B, apoC-III ratio, and apoE ratio, which were higher in France than in Northern Ireland, and for apoC-III-LpB, apoE, and apoE-LpB, which were lower. Multivariate analysis showed that no parameter involving apoC-III and apoE was more discriminatory than HDL-cholesterol, cholesterol, and triglycerides or apoA-I, apoB, and triglycerides between controls and MI subjects. In contrast, the apoC-III ratio was a better discriminatory parameter between the two control populations than the listed parameters. The differences between the two control populations are of particular interest because they are not biased by the presence of disease or the large difference of the incidence in coronary heart disease between the two countries. It is suggested that the distribution of apoC-III among lipoproteins may play a role in the different susceptibility of the two populations to the atherogenic process.

Functional results 5 years after successful percutaneous mitral commissurotomy in a series of 528 patients and analysis of predictive factors

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to assess late functional results after successful percutaneous mitral commissurotomy and to determine their predictors.

BACKGROUND

Few studies have reported late results of percutaneous mitral commissurotomy or have analyzed their late results regardless of immediate results, despite the fact that late deterioration may well be related either to a decrease in valve area or to poor initial results.

METHODS

Between 1986 and 1992, 528 patients underwent successful percutaneous mitral commissurotomy (mean [+/- SD] age 46 +/- 18 years; mean follow-up 32 +/- 18 months). A successful procedure was defined by a mitral valve area > or = 1.5 cm2 and no regurgitation > 2/4. Dilation was performed using a single balloon in 13 patients, a double balloon in 349 and the Inoue balloon in 166. Multivariate analysis was performed with a Cox model.

RESULTS

The survival rate for patients in New York Heart Association functional class I or II, with no cardiac-related deaths or need for mitral surgery or repeat dilation, was 76 +/- 6% at 5 years. By multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of good functional results were echocardiographic group (p = 0.01), functional class (p = 0.02) and cardiothoracic index (p = 0.005) before the procedure and valve area after the procedure (p = 0.007). The predictive model derived allowed estimation of the probability of good functional results according to the value of these four predictors for any given patient.

CONCLUSIONS

Good functional results were observed 5 years after successful percutaneous mitral commissurotomy in a large series of varied patients. The analysis of predictive factors may provide useful indications for follow-up results in patients undergoing this technique.

Diabetes and pancreatic carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the association between pancreatic cancer and non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

DESIGN

Cohort study of fatal pancreatic cancer with 17 years of follow-up.

SETTING

Working men in Paris.

PARTICIPANTS

6,988 men aged 44-55 years employed by a government agency. Following a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test, subjects were classed at baseline, according to the WHO criteria as normoglucose tolerant, impaired glucose tolerant or diabetic. Known diabetic patients were grouped with the latter.

RESULTS

Among the 312 diabetic subjects (both known and newly diagnosed) the death rate from pancreatic cancer was 64 per 100,000 person years, and 28 and 18 per 100,000 person years among the 684 impaired glucose tolerant and 5,992 normoglycaemic subjects respectively. After the exclusion of deaths during the first five years of follow-up, a possible marker of occult cancer at baseline, the relative risk of fatal pancreatic cancer in diabetic versus normoglycaemic men was 4.9 (95% CI, 1.3 to 18 after adjustment for age and tobacco consumption).

Arteriographically documented coronary artery disease and alcohol consumption in French men. The CORALI Study

The relationship between alcohol consumption and angiographically documented coronary artery disease was examined among 484 men who underwent coronary arteriography. Severity of coronary artery disease was assessed by the number of arteries, or the number of segments, with at least one in which the luminal diameter is reduced by > or = 50%. Alcohol and tobacco consumption were assessed by a technician according to a standardized questionnaire, and an estimate of the average consumption level prior to the onset of the clinical symptoms was used for analysis. A decrease in the average coronary artery disease scores was observed with increasing alcohol consumption until a mean consumption of about 100 ml.day-1. After adjustment for age, town, clinical group and tobacco consumption, the same pattern of association was obtained. Similar trends were also present with alcohol consumption restricted to wine, beer and other alcoholic beverages. Taking into account classical risk factors of the disease and blood lipid levels at the time of angiography, did not modify these trends but less significant differences were observed. These findings provide additional evidence that the reduction of the clinical coronary risk observed in moderate alcohol consumers might be secondary, at least partly, to an anatomically less extensive disease. This, however, does not justify the recommendation of alcohol for prevention purposes.

Inference of the strength of genotype-disease association from studies comparing offspring with and without parental history of disease

The association between genetic polymorphisms and a multifactorial disease is generally investigated by case-control studies. However, inference about the genotype-disease association can also be drawn from studies comparing offspring having a parental history of disease with offspring having no parental history. In such studies, differences in genotype frequencies between the two groups of offspring will reflect a different transmission of alleles from affected and unaffected parents. We showed that in offspring studies, the odds ratios (ORs) associated with heterozygous and homozygous genotypes are related by the formula: OR(het) = (OR(hom) + 1)/2. These ORs depend only on the allele frequencies in affected and unaffected parents, and not on the pattern of genotype-disease association. Under simple patterns of association, it is possible to infer from the ORs observed among offspring, the expected ORs for the disease. The decrease of power of offspring studies by comparison with classical case-control studies is evaluated, and an application is given on the association between the apoE polymorphism and coronary heart disease.

Relations of cardiovascular risk factors to aortic pulse wave velocity in asymptomatic middle-aged women

Cross-sectional associations between aortic elasticity assessed by carotid to femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) and cardiovascular risk factors were examined in 429 apparently healthy middle-aged women. PWV was strongly and positively related to blood pressure and hypertension. Weak but significant positive associations were also found between PWV and age, heart rate, some lipids and lipoproteins, blood glucose (either as a continuous or dichotomous variable), body mass index, haematocrit, leucocyte count and family history of diabetes. No associations were observed between PWV and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein A1, fibrinogen, cigarette smoking, menopausal status and a family history of hypertension or myocardial infarction. After adjustment for systolic blood pressure, PWV remained significantly related to heart rate, leucocyte count, blood glucose (as a dichotomous variable) and a family history of diabetes. Multiple regression analysis showed that systolic blood pressure and, to a lesser extent, heart rate, leucocyte count and a family history of diabetes were all independent determinants of PWV. This pattern of associations suggests that arterial stiffness measured by PWV reflects the sclerotic rather than the atherotic component of atherosclerosis. The potential influence of a family history of diabetes on the elastic properties of the aorta needs to be ascertained in further studies.

Relationship between smoking and diet: the MONICA-France project

The association between smoking habits and diet was examined in a sample of 1126 men, aged 45-64 years, from the general population living in the three French MONICA monitoring areas: Bas-Rhin (BR) (n = 346), Haute-Garonne (HG) (n = 400) and Urban Community of Lille (UCL) (n = 380). Diet was assessed by the 3-day record method. The energy and nutrient intakes were calculated for each of the 3 centres, using the same food composition tables. Alcohol consumption was higher among smokers (P less than 0.001). Taking into account alcohol consumption, age, body mass index, centre, educational level and family size, the analyses showed no difference in non-alcoholic energy intake, proteins, carbohydrates, and total fat. However, smokers had a lower intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (P less than 0.05) and dietary fibre (P less than 0.01) than non-smokers. With regard to food items, smokers had a higher intake of sucrose (P less than 0.05) and a lower intake of vegetables (P less than 0.001), dairy products (P less than 0.05) and cheese (P less than 0.05). These results suggest that analyses in future epidemiological research regarding the role of diet in the aetiology of tobacco-related diseases should consider this association of potential risk factors.

Family resemblance in body circumferences and their ratios: the Nancy family study

The purpose of this study was to investigate the familial resemblance for individual body circumferences (suprailiac, waist, thigh and arm) and for the waist/suprailiac (as surrogate for the waist/hip) and the waist/thigh circumference ratios, in a sample of 216 unselected nuclear families with children aged 10-25 years. Familial correlations were jointly computed, using the maximum-likelihood method. The highest familial resemblance was observed for the waist circumference and for the waist/suprailiac and the waist/thigh circumference ratios. There was no significant difference between father-offspring and mother-offspring correlations when considering individual body circumferences. In contrast, when considering the two ratios there was a stronger mother-child than father-child similarity. Furthermore, there was a higher resemblance of the mother with her daughter than with her son, but no significant sib sex difference in the father-offspring relationship. There was also a heterogeneity of sibling correlations for the two ratios, the like-sex pairs exhibiting higher correlations than the unlike-sex pairs. Lastly, the similarity observed between spouses, of similar magnitude to the father-offspring correlation, suggests the contribution of environmental rather than genetic factors for explaining the familial resemblance of the two ratios. In conclusion, the great family resemblance for the waist/suprailiac and the waist/thigh circumference ratios (correlations ranging from 0.23 to 0.68) appears remarkable, and should be taken in consideration, given the predictive value of these indices for disease in adulthood.

Clinical and psychological diversity of non-specific low-back pain. A new approach towards the classification of clinical subgroups

This study explored the clinical and psychological features of non-specific low-back pain (LBP) using multivariate statistical methods including correspondence analysis, cluster analysis and discriminant analysis. An unselected population of subjects (n = 330) complaining of localized LBP to hospital rheumatologists during 1988 was studied. 41% of the subjects (n = 136) were classified as having a psychiatric disorder according to the DSM-III criteria (Axis I). A number of different organic syndromes were identified and the importance of psychological influences on the clinical presentation of LBP was demonstrated. Cluster analyses provided further evidence for a four-group typology of LBP, which may be interpreted through the relationships or interactions between psychological disturbances and the clinical features of LBP. This study highlights the need, in etiological research, to take into account the clinical diversity of non-specific LBP and to investigate further the complex relationships between psychological disturbances and back pain.

Hormonal influences on the relationships between body fatness, body fat distribution, lipids, lipoproteins, glucose and blood pressure in French working women

The independent associations between overall obesity, body fat distribution, lipids, lipoproteins, glucose, blood pressure and some hormonal factors (sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), corticosteroid binding globulin (CBG) and fasting insulin) were cross-sectionally examined in 205 French working women. After adjustment for age, overall adiposity assessed by body mass index (BMI) was significantly associated with most metabolic parameters, whereas regional adiposity assessed by the waist-hip ratio (WHR) was significantly associated only with triglyceride, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Blood pressure, glucose but not triglyceride, were also negatively and significantly correlated with SHBG and positively with fasting insulin. Negative independent associations were found between SHBG and both BMI and WHR, whereas CBG was positively associated only with WHR. Fasting insulin was no longer related to WHR after adjustment for BMI. After controlling for the effect of SHBG or insulin, the associations between triglyceride, blood pressure and both BMI and WHR were not substantially modified. After adjustment for BMI and WHR, fasting insulin was independently associated with both HDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure. In conclusion, in these French women, hormonal factors under study appeared to have little influence on the relationships between body fatness, body fat distribution, metabolic variables and blood pressure.

Familial resemblance of plasma apolipoprotein B: the Nancy study

The familial resemblance of plasma apolipoprotein B (apo B) was investigated in a sample of 102 families including 419 members who volunteered for a free health checkup in the Preventive Center of Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, France. The mean levels (+/- SD) of apo B were 141.0 (+/- 32.6), 121.8 (+/- 27.7), and 98.6 (+/- 22.6) mg/dl in fathers, mothers, and offspring, respectively. The familial correlations were 0.04, 0.13, 0.21 (P less than .01), and 0.47 (P less than .001) between spouses, father-offspring, mother-offspring, and siblings, respectively, after adjustment on age, body mass index, and sex. A genetic analysis was performed using the approach proposed by Bonney, which indicated that a recessive and a dominant major-locus model appeared nearly equally supported by the data. Under the recessive model, the frequency q of the most common allele was estimated as 0.825, with a mean difference of 60.4 mg/dl between high and low homozygotes. Under the dominant model, q was estimated as 0.875, with a mean increase of 34.2 mg/dl in heterozygotes and high homozygotes. However, the hypothesis of Mendelian transmission and the environmental hypothesis could not be formally tested because of great numeric difficulties encountered in the estimation of the three transmission probabilities. Given these analytical restrictions, we cannot conclude in favor of a major locus influencing apo B level in our population, even though the evidence is suggestive. The genetic heterogeneity underlying the familial aggregation of apo B level, suggested by several recent publications, might explain the difficulty in discerning a single major locus in a population sample of small nuclear families, not ascertained through patients enriching the sample in high values of apo B. These findings call into question the relevance of the approach through "healthy" populations in the search for major loci influencing biological traits.

The relationship between subsets of anthropometric upper versus lower body measurements and coronary heart disease risk in middle-aged men. The Paris Prospective Study. I

The importance of body fat distribution as one determinant of various metabolic disorders associated with obesity is now recognized and some epidemiological evidence exists that it might be related to the onset of coronary heart disease (CHD) in men and women. The Paris Prospective Study data permitted exploration of the relationship between three subsets of anthropometric upper versus lower body measurements (waist-thigh circumferences, subumbilical-thigh skinfolds, bideltoid-bitrochanter diameters) and CHD risk in a middle-aged male population. The analysis successively disclosed the simple measurement ratio for both girth and diameters and the subumbilical2: thigh skinfold ratio as the best predictors of CHD outcome. The girth and skinfold but not the diameter ratios were positively correlated with body mass index and usual CHD risk factors except smoking. The relationship of upper versus lower fat localization (girth and skinfold ratios) with CHD incidence confirmed previous results obtained in this population but its magnitude is low in comparison with usual CHD risk factors. The association of the diameter ratio as an index of upper body frame with CHD occurrence remains to be confirmed by further studies.