Development and validation of a risk prediction model for hospital admission in COVID-19 patients presenting to primary care

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of prognostic models for COVID-19 that are usable for in-office patient assessment in general practice (GP).

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a risk prediction model for hospital admission with readily available predictors.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study linking GP records from 8 COVID-19 centres and 55 general practices in the Netherlands to hospital admission records. The development cohort spanned March to June 2020, the validation cohort March to June 2021. The primary outcome was hospital admission within 14 days. We used geographic leave-region-out cross-validation in the development cohort and temporal validation in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the development cohort, 4,806 adult patients with COVID-19 consulted their GP (median age 56, 56% female); in the validation cohort 830 patients did (median age 56, 52% female). In the development and validation cohort respectively, 292 (6.1%) and 126 (15.2%) were admitted to the hospital within 14 days, respectively. A logistic regression model based on sex, smoking, symptoms, vital signs and comorbidities predicted hospital admission with a c-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.86) at geographic cross-validation and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83) at temporal validation, and was reasonably well calibrated (intercept -0.08, 95% CI -0.98 to 0.52, slope 0.89, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.07 at geographic cross-validation and intercept 0.02, 95% CI -0.21 to 0.24, slope 0.82, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.00 at temporal validation).

CONCLUSION

We derived a risk model using readily available variables at GP assessment to predict hospital admission for COVID-19. It performed accurately across regions and waves. Further validation on cohorts with acquired immunity and newer SARS-CoV-2 variants is recommended.

Diabetes and risk of acute coronary syndrome in callers with chest discomfort: Cross-sectional study in out-of-hours primary care

AIMS

We investigated the differences in prevalence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) by presence versus absence of diabetes in males and females with chest discomfort who called out-of-hours primary care (OHS-PC).

METHODS

A cross-sectional study performed in the Netherlands. Patients who called the OHS-PC in the Utrecht region, the Netherlands between 2014 and 2017 with acute chest discomfort were included. We compared those with diabetes with those without diabetes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the relation between diabetes and (i) high urgency allocation and (ii) ACS.

RESULTS

Of the 2,195 callers with acute chest discomfort, 180 (8.2%) reported having diabetes. ACS was present in 15.3% of males (22.0% in those with diabetes) and 8.4% of females (18.8% in those with diabetes). Callers with diabetes did not receive a high urgency more frequently (74.4% vs. 67.8% (OR: 1.38; 95% CI 0.98-1.96). However, such callers had a higher odds for ACS (OR: 2.17; 95% CI 1.47-3.19). These differences were similar for females and males.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes holds promise as diagnostic factor in callers to OHS-PC with chest discomfort. It might help triage in this setting given the increased risk of ACS in those with diabetes.

Qualitative study on shared decision making in cystitis management in general practice

BACKGROUND

Cystitis are commonly treated with antibiotics, although non-antibiotic options could be considered for healthy non-pregnant women. Shared decision making (SDM) can be used in cystitis management to discuss the various treatment options but is not frequently applied in general practice.

AIM

Identifying barriers and facilitators for applying SDM in cystitis management in general practice.

DESIGN & SETTING

Qualitative explorative research in general practice with healthcare professionals (HCPs; general practitioners (GPs) and GP assistants) and healthy non-pregnant women with a recent history of cystitis (patients).

METHOD

Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted between May and October 2022. We applied a combination of thematic and framework analysis.

RESULTS

Ten GPs, seven GP assistants, and fifteen patients were interviewed. We identified three main barriers and one key facilitator: 1) applying SDM is deemed inefficient; 2) HCPs presume that patients expect antibiotic treatment and some HCPs consider non-antibiotic treatment inferior; 3) Patients are largely unaware of the various non-antibiotic treatment options for cystitis; 4) HCPs recognise some benefits of applying SDM in cystitis management, including reduced antibiotic use and improved patient empowerment, and patients appreciate involvement in treatment decisions, but preferences for SDM vary.

CONCLUSION

SDM is infrequently applied in cystitis treatment in general practice due to the current efficient cystitis management, HCPs' perceptions, and patient unawareness. Nevertheless, both HCPs and patients recognise the long-term benefits of applying SDM in cystitis management. Our findings facilitate the development of tailored interventions to increase the application of SDM which should be co-created with HCPs and patients and fit into the current efficient cystitis management.

Within-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions in patients with respiratory tract infections: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial stewardship interventions mainly focus on initial antibiotic prescriptions, with few considering within-episode repeat prescriptions. We aimed to describe the magnitude, type and determinants of within-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions in patients presenting to primary care with respiratory tract infections (RTIs).

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study among 530 sampled English general practices within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). All individuals with a primary care RTI consultation for which an antibiotic was prescribed between March 2018 and February 2022. Main outcome measurement was repeat antibiotic prescriptions within 28 days of a RTI visit stratified by age (children vs. adults) and RTI type (lower vs. upper RTI). Multivariable logistic regression and principal components analyses were used to identify risk factors and patient clusters at risk for within-episode repeat prescriptions.

FINDINGS

905,964 RTI episodes with at least one antibiotic prescription were identified. In adults, 19.9% (95% CI 19.3-20.5%) had at least one within-episode repeat prescription for a lower RTI, compared to 10.5% (95% CI 10.3-10.8%) for an upper RTI. In children, this was around 10% irrespective of RTI type. The majority of repeat prescriptions occurred a median of 10 days after the initial prescription and was the same antibiotic class in 48.3% of cases. Frequent RTI related GP visits and prior within-RTI-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions were main factors associated with repeat prescriptions in both adults and children irrespective of RTI type. Young (<2 years) and older (65+) age were associated with repeat prescriptions. Among those aged 2-64 years, allergic rhinitis, COPD and oral corticosteroids were associated with repeat prescriptions.

INTERPRETATIONS

Repeat within-episode antibiotic use accounts for a significant proportion of all antibiotics prescribed for RTIs, with same class antibiotics unlikely to confer clinical benefit and is therefore a prime target for future antimicrobial stewardship interventions.

Outpatient respiratory syncytial virus infections and novel preventive interventions

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

With interventions to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection within reach, this review aims to provide healthcare professionals with the latest information necessary to inform parents and assess the potential impact of RSV prevention on everyday practice. We address frequently asked questions for parental counseling.

RECENT FINDINGS

Numerous studies emphasize the major burden of RSV on young children, parents, healthcare and society. In the first year of life, about 14% of healthy term infants visit a doctor and 2% require hospitalization due to RSV. In older children (1--5 years), RSV infections and associated morbidity (wheeze, acute otitis media) are major drivers of outpatient visits. A novel maternal RSV vaccine and long-acting mAb can provide protection during infants' first months of life. This maternal vaccine showed 70.9% efficacy against severe RSV infection within 150 days after birth; the mAb nirsevimab reduces medically attended RSV infections by 79.5% within 150 days after administration. Both gained regulatory approval in the USA (FDA) and Europe (EMA).

SUMMARY

Novel RSV immunizations hold promise to reduce the RSV burden in infants, with substantial impact on everyday practice. Tailored parental guidance will be instrumental for successful implementation. Awaiting pediatric vaccines, RSV infections beyond infancy will still pose a significant outpatient burden.

Prognostic factors and prediction models for hospitalisation and all-cause mortality in adults presenting to primary care with a lower respiratory tract infection: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To identify and synthesise relevant existing prognostic factors (PF) and prediction models (PM) for hospitalisation and all-cause mortality within 90 days in primary care patients with acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI).

DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

Systematic searches of MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library were performed. All PF and PM studies on the risk of hospitalisation or all-cause mortality within 90 days in adult primary care LRTI patients were included. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool and Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool tools for PF and PM studies, respectively. The results of included PF and PM studies were descriptively summarised.

RESULTS

Of 2799 unique records identified, 16 were included: 9 PF studies, 6 PM studies and 1 combination of both. The risk of bias was judged high for all studies, mainly due to limitations in the analysis domain. Based on reported multivariable associations in PF studies, increasing age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, a history of stroke, cancer or heart failure, previous hospitalisation, influenza vaccination (negative association), current use of systemic corticosteroids, recent antibiotic use, respiratory rate ≥25/min and diagnosis of pneumonia were identified as most promising candidate predictors. One newly developed PM was externally validated (c statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78) whereas the previously hospital-derived CRB-65 was externally validated in primary care in five studies (c statistic ranging from 0.72 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.81) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.92)). None of the PM studies reported measures of model calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of existing models for individualised risk prediction of 90-day hospitalisation or mortality in primary care LRTI patients in everyday practice is hampered by incomplete assessment of model performance. The identified candidate predictors provide useful information for clinicians and warrant consideration when developing or updating PMs using state-of-the-art development and validation techniques.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022341233.

Substantial Burden of Nonmedically Attended RSV Infection in Healthy-Term Infants: An International Prospective Birth Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

During the first year of life, 1 in 4 infants develops a symptomatic respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, yet only half seek medical attention. The current focus on medically attended RSV therefore underrepresents the true societal burden of RSV. We assessed the burden of nonmedically attended RSV infections and compared with medically attended RSV.

METHODS

We performed active RSV surveillance until the age of 1 year in a cohort (n = 993) nested within the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in EUrope (RESCEU) prospective birth cohort study enrolling healthy term-born infants in 5 European countries. Symptoms, medication use, wheezing, and impact on family life were analyzed.

RESULTS

For 97 of 120 (80.1%) nonmedically attended RSV episodes, sufficient data were available for analysis. In 50.5% (49/97), symptoms lasted ≥15 days. Parents reported impairment in usual daily activities in 59.8% (58/97) of episodes; worries, 75.3% (73/97); anxiety, 34.0% (33/97); and work absenteeism, 10.8% (10/93). Compared with medically attended RSV (n = 102, 9 hospital admissions), Respiratory Syncytial Virus NETwork (ReSViNET) severity scores were lower (3.5 vs 4.6, P < .001), whereas duration of respiratory symptoms and was comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

Even when medical attendance is not required, RSV infection poses a substantial burden to infants, families, and society. These findings are important for policy makers when considering the implementation of RSV immunization. Clinical Trials Registration. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03627572).

Shortness of breath as a diagnostic factor for acute coronary syndrome in male and female callers to out-of-hours primary care

OBJECTIVE

Chest discomfort and shortness of breath (SOB) are key symptoms in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). It is, however, unknown whether SOB is valuable for recognising ACS during telephone triage in the out-of-hours primary care (OHS-PC) setting.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study performed in the Netherlands. Telephone triage conversations were analysed of callers with chest discomfort who contacted the OHS-PC between 2014 and 2017, comparing patients with SOB with those who did not report SOB. We determine the relation between SOB and (1) High urgency allocation, (2) ACS and (3) ACS or other life-threatening diseases.

RESULTS

Of the 2195 callers with chest discomfort, 1096 (49.9%) reported SOB (43.7% men, 56.3% women). In total, 15.3% men (13.2% in those with SOB) and 8.4% women (9.2% in those with SOB) appeared to have ACS. SOB compared with no SOB was associated with high urgency allocation (75.9% vs 60.8%, OR: 2.03; 95% CI 1.69 to 2.44, multivariable OR (mOR): 2.03; 95% CI 1.69 to 2.44), but not with ACS (10.9% vs 12.0%; OR: 0.90; 95% CI 0.69 to 1.17, mOR: 0.91; 95% CI 0.70 to 1.19) or 'ACS or other life-threatening diseases' (15.0% vs 14.1%; OR: 1.07; 95% CI 0.85 to 1.36, mOR: 1.09; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.38). For women the relation with ACS was 9.2% vs 7.5%, OR: 1.25; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.88, and for men 13.2% vs 17.4%, OR: 0.72; 95% CI 0.51 to 1.02. For 'ACS or other life-threatening diseases', this was 13.0% vs 8.5%, OR: 1.60; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.32 for women, and 7.5% vs 20.8%, OR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.59 to 1.12 for men.

CONCLUSIONS

Men and women with chest discomfort and SOB who contact the OHS-PC more often receive high urgency than those without SOB. This seems to be adequate in women, but not in men when considering the risk of ACS or other life-threatening diseases.

Incomplete and possibly selective recording of signs, symptoms, and measurements in free text fields of primary care electronic health records of adults with lower respiratory tract infections

OBJECTIVES

To assess the completeness of recording of relevant signs, symptoms, and measurements in Dutch free text fields of primary care electronic health records (EHR) of adults with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective cohort study embedded in a prediction modeling project using routine health care data of the Julius General Practitioners' Network of adult patients with LRTI. Free text fields of 1,000 primary care consultations of LRTI episodes between 2016 and 2019 were manually annotated to retrieve data on the recording of sixteen relevant signs, symptoms, and measurements.

RESULTS

For 12/16 (75%) of the relevant signs, symptoms, and measurements, more than 50% of the values was not recorded. The patterns of recorded values indicated selective recording of positive or abnormal values. Recording rates varied across consultation type (physical consultation vs. home visit), diagnosis (acute bronchitis vs. pneumonia), antibiotic prescription issued (yes vs. no), and between practices.

CONCLUSION

In EHR of primary care LRTI patients, recording of signs, symptoms, and measurements in free text fields is incomplete and possibly selective. When using free text data in EHR-based research, careful consideration of its recording patterns and appropriate missing data handling techniques is therefore required.

Home-based management of hypoxaemic COVID-19 patients: design of the Therapy@Home pilot study

INTRODUCTION

During the COVID-19 pandemic, hospital capacity was strained. Home-based care could relieve the hospital care system and improve patient well-being if safely organised.We designed an intervention embedded in a regional collaborative healthcare network for the home-based management of acutely ill COVID-19 patients requiring oxygen treatment. Here, we describe the design and pilot protocol for the evaluation of the feasibility of this complex intervention.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Following a participatory action research approach, the intervention was designed in four consecutive steps: (1) literature review and establishment of an expert panel; (2) concept design of essential intervention building blocks (acute medical care, acute nursing care, remote monitoring, equipment and technology, organisation and logistics); (3) safety assessments (prospective risk analysis and a simulation patient evaluation) and (4) description of the design of the pilot (feasibility) study aimed at including approximately 15-30 patients, sufficient for fine-tuning for a large-scale randomised intervention.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All patients will provide written, informed consent. The study was approved by the Medical Ethics Review Committee of the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands (protocol NL77421.041.21). The preparatory steps (1-4) needed to perform the pilot are executed and described in this paper. The findings of the pilot will be published in academic journals. If we consider the complex intervention feasible, we aim to continue with a large-scale randomised controlled study evaluating the clinical effectiveness, safety and implementation of the complex intervention.

ISOM 2023 Research Panel 5: Interventions- Vaccines and prevention, medical and surgical treatment, and impact of COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

To identify and synthesize key research advances from the literature published between 2019 and 2023 on the advances in preventative measures, and medical and surgical treatment of uncomplicated otitis media (OM) including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on OM management.

DATA SOURCES

Medline (PubMed), Embase, and the Cochrane Library.

REVIEW METHODS

All relevant original articles published in English between June 2019 and February 2023 were identified. Studies related to guideline adherence, impact of treatment on immune response and/or microbiology, tympanoplasty, Eustachian tube balloon dilatation, mastoidectomy procedures, and those focusing on children with Down's syndrome or cleft palate were excluded.

MAIN FINDINGS

Of the 9280 unique records screened, 64 were eligible for inclusion; 23 studies related to medical treatment, 20 to vaccines, 13 to surgical treatment, 6 to prevention (excl. vaccines) and 2 to the impact of COVID-19 on OM management. The level of evidence was judged 2 in 11 studies (17.2 %) and 3 or 4 in the remaining 53 studies (82.8 %) mainly due to the observational design, study limitations or low sample sizes. Some important advances in OM management have been made in recent years. Video discharge instructions detailing the identification and management of pain and fever for parents of children with acute otitis media (AOM) was more effective than paper instructions in reducing symptomatology; compared to placebo, levofloxacin solution was more effective for treating chronic suppurative otitis media, whereas AOM recurrences during two years of follow-up did not differ between children with recurrent AOM who received tympanostomy tube (TT) insertion or medical management. Further, novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) schedules for preventing OM in Aboriginal children appeared ineffective, and a protein-based pneumococcal vaccine had no added value over PCV13 for preventing AOM in native American infants. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a decline in OM and TT case volumes and complications was observed.

IMPLICATION FOR PRACTICE AND FUTURE RESEARCH

Whether the observed impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on OM management extends to the post-pandemic era is uncertain. Furthermore, the impact of the pandemic on the conduct of urgently needed prospective methodologically rigorous interventional studies aimed at improving OM prevention and treatment remains to be elucidated since the current report consisted of studies predominantly conducted in the pre-pandemic era.

Topical and oral steroids for otitis media with effusion (OME) in children

BACKGROUND

Otitis media with effusion (OME) is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear cavity, common amongst young children. The fluid may cause hearing loss. Although most episodes of OME in children resolve spontaneously within a few months, when persistent it may lead to behavioural problems and a delay in expressive language skills. Management of OME includes watchful waiting, medical, surgical and other treatments, such as autoinflation. Oral or topical steroids are sometimes used to reduce inflammation in the middle ear.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of topical and oral steroids for OME in children.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane ENT Register, CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished studies on 20 January 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-randomised trials in children aged 6 months to 12 years with unilateral or bilateral OME. We included studies that compared topical or oral steroids with either placebo or watchful waiting (no treatment).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes, determined by a multi-stakeholder prioritisation exercise, were: 1) hearing, 2) OME-specific quality of life and 3) systemic corticosteroid side effects. Secondary outcomes were: 1) presence/persistence of OME, 2) other adverse effects (including local nasal effects), 3) receptive language skills, 4) speech development, 5) cognitive development, 6) psychosocial outcomes, 7) listening skills, 8) generic health-related quality of life, 9) parental stress, 10) vestibular function and 11) episodes of acute otitis media. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence. Although we included all measures of hearing assessment, the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing was our preferred method to assess hearing, due to challenges in interpreting the results of mean hearing thresholds.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 26 studies in this review (2770 children). Most studies of oral steroids used prednisolone for 7 to 14 days. Studies of topical (nasal) steroids used various preparations (beclomethasone, fluticasone and mometasone) for between two weeks and three months. All studies had at least some concerns regarding risk of bias. Here we report our primary outcomes and main secondary outcome, at the longest reported follow-up. Oral steroids compared to placebo Oral steroids probably result in little or no difference in the proportion of children with normal hearing after 12 months (69.7% of children with steroids, compared to 61.1% of children receiving placebo, risk ratio (RR) 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97 to 1.33; 1 study, 332 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). There is probably little or no difference in OME-related quality of life (mean difference (MD) in OM8-30 score 0.07, 95% CI -0.2 to 0.34; 1 study, 304 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Oral steroids may reduce the number of children with persistent OME at 6 to 12 months, but the size of the effect was uncertain (absolute risk reduction ranging from 13.3% to 45%, number needed to treat (NNT) of between 3 and 8; low-certainty evidence). The evidence was very uncertain regarding the risk of systemic corticosteroid side effects, and we were unable to conduct any meta-analysis for this outcome. Oral steroids compared to no treatment Oral steroids may result in little or no difference in the persistence of OME after three to nine months (74.5% children receiving steroids versus 73% of those receiving placebo; RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.17; 2 studies, 258 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence on adverse effects was very uncertain. We did not identify any evidence on hearing or disease-related quality of life. Topical (intranasal) steroids compared to placebo We did not identify data on the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing. However, the mean change in hearing threshold after two months was -0.3 dB lower (95% CI -6.05 to 5.45; 1 study, 78 participants; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence suggests that nasal steroids make little or no difference to disease-specific quality of life after nine months (OM8-30 score, MD 0.05 higher, 95% CI -0.36 to 0.46; 1 study, 82 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain regarding the effect of nasal steroids on persistence of OME at up to one year. Two studies reported this: one showed a potential benefit for nasal steroids, the other showed a benefit with placebo (2 studies, 206 participants). The evidence was also very uncertain regarding the risk of corticosteroid-related side effects, as we were unable to provide a pooled effect estimate. Topical (intranasal) steroids compared to no treatment We did not identify data on the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing. However, the mean difference in final hearing threshold after four weeks was 1.95 dB lower (95% CI -3.85 to -0.05; 1 study, 168 participants; low-certainty evidence). Nasal steroids may reduce the persistence of OME after eight weeks, but the evidence was very uncertain (58.5% of children receiving steroids, compared to 81.3% of children without treatment, RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.91; 2 studies, 134 participants). We did not identify any evidence on disease-related quality of life or adverse effects.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Overall, oral steroids may have little effect in the treatment of OME, with little improvement in the number of children with normal hearing and no effect on quality of life. There may be a reduction in the proportion of children with persistent disease after 12 months. However, this benefit may be small and must be weighed against the potential for adverse effects associated with oral steroid use. The evidence for nasal steroids was all low- or very low-certainty. It is therefore less clear if nasal steroids have any impact on hearing, quality of life or persistence of OME. Evidence on adverse effects was very limited. OME is likely to resolve spontaneously for most children. The potential benefit of treatment may therefore be small and should be balanced with the risk of adverse effects. Future studies should aim to determine which children are most likely to benefit from treatment, rather than offering interventions to all children.

Predicting sepsis-related mortality and ICU admissions from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives with acute infections: A cohort study of linked routine care databases

BACKGROUND

General practitioners (GPs) often assess patients with acute infections. It is challenging for GPs to recognize patients needing immediate hospital referral for sepsis while avoiding unnecessary referrals. This study aimed to predict adverse sepsis-related outcomes from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using linked routine care databases from out-of-hours GP cooperatives, general practices, hospitals and mortality registration. We included adult patients with complaints possibly related to an acute infection, who were assessed (clinic consultation or home visit) by a GP from a GP cooperative between 2017-2019. We used telephone triage information to derive a risk prediction model for sepsis-related adverse outcome (infection-related ICU admission within seven days or infection-related death within 30 days) using logistic regression, random forest, and neural network machine learning techniques. Data from 2017 and 2018 were used for derivation and from 2019 for validation.

RESULTS

We included 155,486 patients (median age of 51 years; 59% females) in the analyses. The strongest predictors for sepsis-related adverse outcome were age, type of contact (home visit or clinic consultation), patients considered ABCD unstable during triage, and the entry complaints"general malaise", "shortness of breath" and "fever". The multivariable logistic regression model resulted in a C-statistic of 0.89 (95% CI 0.88-0.90) with good calibration. Machine learning models performed similarly to the logistic regression model. A "sepsis alert" based on a predicted probability >1% resulted in a sensitivity of 82% and a positive predictive value of 4.5%. However, most events occurred in patients receiving home visits, and model performance was substantially worse in this subgroup (C-statistic 0.70).

CONCLUSION

Several patient characteristics identified during telephone triage of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives were associated with sepsis-related adverse outcomes. Still, on a patient level, predictions were not sufficiently accurate for clinical purposes.

Predicting adverse outcomes in adults with a community-acquired lower respiratory tract infection: a protocol for the development and validation of two prediction models for (i) all-cause hospitalisation and mortality and (ii) cardiovascular outcomes

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) are common in primary care and patients at particular risk of adverse outcomes, e.g., hospitalisation and mortality, are challenging to identify. LRTIs are also linked to an increased incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) following the initial infection, whereas concurrent CVD might negatively impact overall prognosis in LRTI patients. Accurate risk prediction of adverse outcomes in LRTI patients, while considering the interplay with CVD, can aid general practitioners (GP) in the clinical decision-making process, and may allow for early detection of deterioration. This paper therefore presents the design of the development and external validation of two models for predicting individual risk of all-cause hospitalisation or mortality (model 1) and short-term incidence of CVD (model 2) in adults presenting to primary care with LRTI.

METHODS

Both models will be developed using linked routine electronic health records (EHR) data from Dutch primary and secondary care, and the mortality registry. Adults aged ≥ 40 years with a GP-diagnosis of LRTI between 2016 and 2019 are eligible for inclusion. Relevant patient demographics, medical history, medication use, presenting signs and symptoms, and vital and laboratory measurements will be considered as candidate predictors. Outcomes of interest include 30-day all-cause hospitalisation or mortality (model 1) and 90-day CVD (model 2). Multivariable elastic net regression techniques will be used for model development. During the modelling process, the incremental predictive value of CVD for hospitalisation or all-cause mortality (model 1) will also be assessed. The models will be validated through internal-external cross-validation and external validation in an equivalent cohort of primary care LRTI patients.

DISCUSSION

Implementation of currently available prediction models for primary care LRTI patients is hampered by limited assessment of model performance. While considering the role of CVD in LRTI prognosis, we aim to develop and externally validate two models that predict clinically relevant outcomes to aid GPs in clinical decision-making. Challenges that we anticipate include the possibility of low event rates and common problems related to the use of EHR data, such as candidate predictor measurement and missingness, how best to retrieve information from free text fields, and potential misclassification of outcome events.

Patients' and GPs' views and expectations of home monitoring with a pulse oximeter: a mixed-methods process evaluation of a pilot randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Research on how home monitoring with a pulse oximeter is executed and experienced by patients with an acute illness such as COVID-19 and their GPs is scarce.

AIM

To examine the process of structured home monitoring with a pulse oximeter for patients with COVID-19, their caregivers, and their GPs.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This was a mixed-method process evaluation alongside a pilot feasibility randomised controlled trial. Patients drawn from a general practice setting, with COVID-19, and aged ≥40 years with cardiovascular comorbidities were included.

METHOD

Quantitative trial data from 21 intervention group participants (age 63.2 years) were used, plus qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 15 patients (age 62.9 years), eight informal caregivers, and 10 GPs.

RESULTS

Adherence to the intervention was very high; 97.6% of protocolised peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) measurements in the first 14 days until admission to hospital were recorded (677/694, median daily per patient 2.7). Three identified themes from the interviews were: (a) user-friendliness of home monitoring: easy use of the pulse oximeter and patient preference of a three times daily measurement scheme; (b) patient empowerment: pulse oximeter use enhanced patient self-assurance and empowered patients and informal caregivers in disease management; and (c) added value to current clinical decision making. GPs perceived the pulse oximeter as a useful diagnostic tool and did not experience any additional workload. They felt more secure with remote monitoring with a pulse oximeter than only phone-based monitoring, but emphasised the need to keep an overall view on the patient's condition.

CONCLUSION

Structured home monitoring by pulse oximetry supports patients and their informal caregivers in managing, and GPs in monitoring, acute COVID-19 disease. It appears suitable for use in acutely ill patients in general practice.

The epidemiological impact of digital and manual contact tracing on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the Netherlands: Empirical evidence

The Dutch government introduced the CoronaMelder smartphone application for digital contact tracing (DCT) to complement manual contact tracing (MCT) by Public Health Services (PHS) during the 2020-2022 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Modelling studies showed great potential but empirical evidence of DCT and MCT impact is scarce. We determined reasons for testing, and mean exposure-testing intervals by reason for testing, using routine data from PHS Amsterdam (1 December 2020 to 31 May 2021) and data from two SARS-CoV-2 rapid diagnostic test accuracy studies at other PHS sites in the Netherlands (14 December 2020 to 18 June 2021). Throughout the study periods, notification of DCT-identified contacts was via PHS contact-tracers, and self-testing was not yet widely available. The most commonly reported reason for testing was having symptoms. In asymptomatic individuals, it was having been warned by an index case. Only around 2% and 2-5% of all tests took place after DCT or MCT notification, respectively. About 20-36% of those who had received a DCT or MCT notification had symptoms at the time of test request. Test positivity after a DCT notification was significantly lower, and exposure-test intervals after a DCT or MCT notification were longer, than for the above-mentioned other reasons for testing. Our data suggest that the impact of DCT and MCT on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the Netherlands was limited. However, DCT impact might be enlarged if app use coverage is improved, contact-tracers are eliminated from the digital notification process to minimise delays, and DCT is combined with self-testing.

Ventilation tubes (grommets) for otitis media with effusion (OME) in children

BACKGROUND

Otitis media with effusion (OME) is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear cavity, common amongst young children. It may cause hearing loss which, when persistent, may lead to developmental delay, social difficulty and poor quality of life. Management includes watchful waiting, autoinflation, medical and surgical treatment. Insertion of ventilation tubes has often been used as the preferred treatment.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effects (benefits and harms) of ventilation tubes (grommets) for OME in children.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane ENT Register, CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished trials on 20 January 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs in children (6 months to 12 years) with OME for ≥ 3 months. We included studies that compared ventilation tube (VT) insertion with five comparators: no treatment, watchful waiting (ventilation tubes inserted later, if required), myringotomy, hearing aids and other non-surgical treatments.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were determined following a multi-stakeholder prioritisation exercise and were: 1) hearing; 2) OME-specific quality of life; 3) persistent tympanic membrane perforation (as a severe adverse effect of the surgery). Secondary outcomes were: 1) persistence of OME; 2) other adverse effects (including tympanosclerosis, VT blockage and pain); 3) receptive language skills; 4) speech development; 5) cognitive development; 6) psychosocial skills; 7) listening skills; 8) generic health-related quality of life; 9) parental stress; 10) vestibular function; 11) episodes of acute otitis media. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence for key outcomes. Although we included all measures of hearing assessment, the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing was our preferred method, due to challenges in interpreting the results of mean hearing thresholds.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 19 RCTs (2888 children). We considered most of the evidence to be very uncertain, due to wide confidence intervals for the effect estimates, few participants, and a risk of performance and detection bias. Here we report our key outcomes at the longest reported follow-up. There were some limitations to the evidence. No studies investigated the comparison of ventilation tubes versus hearing aids. We did not identify any data on disease-specific quality of life; however, many studies were conducted before the development of specific tools to assess this in otitis media. Short-acting ventilation tubes were used in most studies and thus specific data on the use of long-acting VTs is limited. Finally, we did not identify specific data on the effects of VTs in children at increased risk of OME (e.g. with craniofacial syndromes). Ventilation tubes versus no treatment (four studies) The odds ratio (OR) for a return to normal hearing after 12 months was 1.13 with VTs (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46 to 2.74; 54% versus 51%; 1 study, 72 participants; very low-certainty evidence). At six months, VTs may lead to a large reduction in persistent OME (risk ratio (RR) 0.30, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.65; 20.4% versus 68.0%; 1 study, 54 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the chance of persistent tympanic membrane perforation with VTs at 12 months (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.91; 8.3% versus 9.7%; 1 RCT, 144 participants). Early ventilation tubes versus watchful waiting (six studies) There was little to no difference in the proportion of children whose hearing returned to normal after 8 to 10 years (i.e. by the age of 9 to 13 years) (RR for VTs 0.98, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.03; 93% versus 95%; 1 study, 391 participants; very low-certainty evidence). VTs may also result in little to no difference in the risk of persistent OME after 18 months to 6 years (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.74; 15% versus 12%; 3 studies, 584 participants; very low-certainty evidence). We were unable to pool data on persistent perforation. One study showed that VTs may increase the risk of perforation after a follow-up duration of 3.75 years (RR 3.65, 95% CI 0.41 to 32.38; 1 study, 391 participants; very low-certainty evidence) but the actual number of children who develop persistent perforation may be low, as demonstrated by another study (1.26%; 1 study, 635 ears; very low-certainty evidence). Ventilation tubes versus non-surgical treatment (one study) One study compared VTs to six months of antibiotics (sulphisoxazole). No data were available on return to normal hearing, but final hearing thresholds were reported. At four months, the mean difference was -5.98 dB HL lower (better) for those receiving VTs, but the evidence is very uncertain (95% CI -9.21 to -2.75; 1 study, 125 participants; very low-certainty evidence). No evidence was identified regarding persistent OME. VTs may result in a low risk of persistent perforation at 18 months of follow-up (no events reported; narrative synthesis of 1 study, 60 participants; low-certainty evidence). Ventilation tubes versus myringotomy (nine studies) We are uncertain whether VTs may slightly increase the likelihood of returning to normal hearing at 6 to 12 months, since the confidence intervals were wide and included the possibility of no effect (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.59 to 2.53; 74% versus 64%; 2 studies, 132 participants; very low-certainty evidence). After six months, persistent OME may be reduced for those who receive VTs compared to laser myringotomy, but the evidence is very uncertain (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.38; 1 study, 272 participants; very low-certainty evidence). At six months, the risk of persistent perforation is probably similar with the use of VTs or laser myringotomy (narrative synthesis of 6 studies, 581 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There may be small short- and medium-term improvements in hearing and persistence of OME with VTs, but it is unclear whether these persist after longer follow-up. The RCTs included do not allow us to say when (or how much) VTs improve hearing in any specific child. However, interpretation of the evidence is difficult: many children in the control groups recover spontaneously or receive VTs during follow-up, VTs may block or extrude, and OME may recur. The limited evidence in this review also affects the generalisability/applicability of our findings to situations involving children with underlying conditions (e.g. craniofacial syndromes) or the use of long-acting tubes. Consequently, RCTs may not be the best way to determine whether an intervention is likely to be effective in any individual child. Instead, we must better understand the different OME phenotypes to target interventions to children who will benefit most, and avoid over-treating when spontaneous resolution is likely.

Antibiotics for acute otitis media in children

BACKGROUND

Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common diseases in childhood for which antibiotics are commonly prescribed; a systematic review reported a pooled prevalence of 85.6% in high-income countries. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in the Cochrane Library in 1997 and updated in 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2015.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of antibiotics for children with AOM.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Current Contents, CINAHL, LILACS and two trial registers. The date of the search was 14 February 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials comparing 1) antimicrobial drugs with placebo, and 2) immediate antibiotic treatment with expectant observation (including delayed antibiotic prescribing) in children with AOM.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened trials for inclusion and extracted data using the standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. Our primary outcomes were: 1) pain at various time points (24 hours, two to three days, four to seven days, 10 to 14 days), and 2) adverse effects likely to be related to the use of antibiotics. Secondary outcomes were: 1) abnormal tympanometry findings, 2) tympanic membrane perforation, 3) contralateral otitis (in unilateral cases), 4) AOM recurrences, 5) serious complications related to AOM and 6) long-term effects (including the number of parent-reported AOM symptom episodes, antibiotic prescriptions and health care utilisation as assessed at least one year after randomisation). We used the GRADE approach to rate the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome of interest.

MAIN RESULTS

Antibiotics versus placebo We included 13 trials (3401 children and 3938 AOM episodes) from high-income countries, which we assessed at generally low risk of bias. Antibiotics do not reduce pain at 24 hours (risk ratio (RR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 1.01; 5 trials, 1394 children; high-certainty evidence), or at four to seven days (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.14; 7 trials, 1264 children), but result in almost a third fewer children having pain at two to three days (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.88; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 20; 7 trials, 2320 children; high-certainty evidence), and likely result in two-thirds fewer having pain at 10 to 12 days (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.66; NNTB 7; 1 trial, 278 children; moderate-certainty evidence). Antibiotics increase the risk of adverse events such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.63; number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) 14; 8 trials, 2107 children; high-certainty evidence). Antibiotics reduce the risk of children having abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96; NNTB 11; 7 trials, 2138 children), slightly reduce the risk of experiencing tympanic membrane perforations (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.89; NNTB 33; 5 trials, 1075 children) and halve the risk of contralateral otitis episodes (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.95; NNTB 11; 4 trials, 906 children). However, antibiotics do not reduce the risk of abnormal tympanometry findings at six to eight weeks (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.13; 3 trials, 953 children) and at three months (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.34; 3 trials, 809 children) or late AOM recurrences (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.11; 6 trials, 2200 children). Severe complications were rare, and the evidence suggests that serious complications do not differ between children treated with either antibiotics or placebo. Immediate antibiotics versus expectant observation We included six trials (1556 children) from high-income countries. The evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may result in a reduction of pain at two to three days (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.79; NNTB 8; 1 trial, 396 children; low-certainty evidence), but probably do not reduce the risk of pain at three to seven days (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.12; 4 trials, 959 children; moderate-certainty evidence), and may not reduce the risk of pain at 11 to 14 days (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.10; 1 trial, 247 children; low-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics increase the risk of vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.51; NNTH 10; 3 trials, 946 children; high-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics probably do not reduce the proportion of children with abnormal tympanometry findings at four weeks and evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may not reduce the risk of tympanic membrane perforation and AOM recurrences. No serious complications occurred in either group.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review reveals that antibiotics probably have no effect on pain at 24 hours, a slight effect on pain in the days following and only a modest effect on the number of children with tympanic perforations, contralateral otitis episodes and abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks compared with placebo in children with AOM. In high-income countries, most cases of AOM spontaneously remit without complications. The benefits of antibiotics must be weighed against the possible harms: for every 14 children treated with antibiotics, one child experienced an adverse event (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) that would not have occurred if antibiotics were withheld. For most children with mild disease in high-income countries, an expectant observational approach seems justified. Therefore, clinical management should emphasise advice about adequate analgesia and the limited role for antibiotics.

Immunoglobulin treatment for hospitalised infants and young children with respiratory syncytial virus infection

BACKGROUND

Millions of children are hospitalised due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection every year. Treatment is supportive, and current therapies (e.g. inhaled bronchodilators, epinephrine, nebulised hypertonic saline, and corticosteroids) are ineffective or have limited effect. Respiratory syncytial virus immunoglobulin may be used prophylactically to prevent hospital admission from RSV-related illness. It may be considered for the treatment of established severe RSV infection or for treatment in an immunocompromised host, although it is not licensed for this purpose. It is unclear whether immunoglobulins improve outcomes when used as a treatment for established RSV infection in infants and young children admitted to hospital. This is an update of a review first published in 2019.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of immunoglobulins for the treatment of RSV-proven lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children aged up to three years, admitted to hospital.

SEARCH METHODS

For this 2022 update, we searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), which contains the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Specialised Register, Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science (from inception to 2 December 2022) with no restrictions. We searched two trial registries for ongoing trials (to 2 December 2022) and checked the reference lists of reviews and included articles for additional studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials comparing immunoglobulins with placebo in hospitalised infants and children aged up to three years with laboratory-diagnosed RSV lower respiratory tract infection.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected trials, assessed risk of bias, and extracted data. We assessed evidence certainty using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

In total, we included eight trials involving 906 infants and children aged up to three years. We included one new trial in this update. The immunoglobulin preparations used in these trials included anti-RSV immunoglobulin and the monoclonal antibody preparations palivizumab and motavizumab. Five trials were conducted at single or multiple sites within a single high-income country (four in the USA, one in Qatar). Three trials included study sites in different countries. All three of these trials included study sites in one or more high-income countries (USA, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Qatar), with two trials also including a study site in a middle-income country (Panama). Five of the eight trials were "supported" or "sponsored" by the trial drug manufacturers. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of immunoglobulins on mortality (risk ratio (RR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14 to 5.27; 4 studies, 309 participants). There were four deaths - two amongst 98 children receiving immunoglobulins, and two amongst 98 children receiving placebo. One additional death occurred in a fourth trial, however the study group of the child was not known and the data were not included in the analysis (very low-certainty evidence). The use of immunoglobulins in infants and children admitted to hospital with RSV proven LRTI probably results in little to no difference in the length of hospitalisation (mean difference (MD) -0.13 days, 95% CI -0.37 to 0.12; 6 studies, 737 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Immunoglobulins may result in little to no difference in the number of children who experience one or more adverse events of any severity or seriousness compared to placebo (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.78; 5 studies, 340 participants; low-certainty evidence) or the number of children who experience one or more adverse events judged by study investigators to be serious in nature, compared to placebo (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.79; 4 studies, 238 participants; low-certainty evidence). Certainty of evidence for secondary outcomes was low. This evidence suggests that use of immunoglobulins results in little to no difference in the need for, or duration of, mechanical ventilation and the need for, or duration of, supplemental oxygen. The use of immunoglobulins does not reduce the need for admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and when children are admitted to the ICU results in little to no difference in the duration of ICU stay.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We are very uncertain about the effect of immunoglobulins on mortality. We are moderately certain that use of immunoglobulins in hospitalised infants and children may result in little to no difference in the length of hospitalisation. Immunoglobulins may result in little to no difference in adverse events, the need for or duration of mechanical ventilation, supplemental oxygen, or admission to the intensive care unit, though we are less certain about this evidence and the true effect of immunoglobulins on these outcomes may differ markedly from the estimated effect observed in this review. All trials were conducted in high-income countries, and data from populations in which the rate of death from RSV infection is higher are lacking.

Antibiotics for otitis media with effusion (OME) in children

BACKGROUND

Otitis media with effusion (OME) is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear cavity, common amongst young children. The fluid may cause hearing loss. When persistent, it may lead to developmental delay, social difficulty and poor quality of life. Management of OME includes watchful waiting, autoinflation, medical and surgical treatment. Antibiotics are sometimes used to treat any bacteria present in the effusion, or associated biofilms.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of oral antibiotics for otitis media with effusion (OME) in children.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane ENT Information Specialist searched the Cochrane ENT Register, CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished studies to 20 January 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised trials in children aged 6 months to 12 years with unilateral or bilateral OME. We included studies that compared oral antibiotics with either placebo or no treatment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were determined following a multi-stakeholder prioritisation exercise and were: 1) hearing, 2) otitis media-specific quality of life and 3) anaphylaxis. Secondary outcomes were: 1) persistence of OME, 2) adverse effects, 3) receptive language skills, 4) speech development, 5) cognitive development, 6) psychosocial skills, 7) listening skills, 8) generic health-related quality of life, 9) parental stress, 10) vestibular function and 11) episodes of acute otitis media. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence for each outcome. Although we included all measures of hearing assessment, the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing was our preferred method to assess hearing, due to challenges in interpreting the results of mean hearing thresholds.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 19 completed studies that met our inclusion criteria (2581 participants). They assessed a variety of oral antibiotics (including penicillins, cephalosporins, macrolides and trimethoprim), with most studies using a 10- to 14-day treatment course. We had some concerns about the risk of bias in all studies included in this review. Here we report our primary outcomes and main secondary outcome, at the longest reported follow-up time. Antibiotics versus placebo We included 11 studies for this comparison, but none reported all of our outcomes of interest and limited meta-analysis was possible. Hearing One study found that more children may return to normal hearing by two months (resolution of the air-bone gap) after receiving antibiotics as compared with placebo, but the evidence is very uncertain (Peto odds ratio (OR) 9.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.51 to 26.18; 20/49 children who received antibiotics returned to normal hearing versus 0/37 who received placebo; 1 study, 86 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Disease-specific quality of life No studies assessed this outcome. Presence/persistence of OME At 6 to 12 months of follow-up, the use of antibiotics compared with placebo may slightly reduce the number of children with persistent OME, but the confidence intervals were wide, and the evidence is very uncertain (risk ratio (RR) 0.89, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.17; 48% versus 54%; number needed to treat (NNT) 17; 2 studies, 324 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Adverse event: anaphylaxis No studies provided specific data on anaphylaxis. Three of the included studies (448 children) did report adverse events in sufficient detail to assume that no anaphylactic reactions occurred, but the evidence is very uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). Antibiotics versus no treatment We included eight studies for this comparison, but very limited meta-analysis was possible. Hearing One study found that the use of antibiotics compared to no treatment may result in little to no difference in final hearing threshold at three months (mean difference (MD) -5.38 dB HL, 95% CI -9.12 to -1.64; 1 study, 73 participants; low-certainty evidence). The only data identified on the return to normal hearing were reported at 10 days of follow-up, which we considered to be too short to accurately reflect the efficacy of antibiotics. Disease-specific quality of life No studies assessed this outcome. Presence/persistence of OME Antibiotics may reduce the proportion of children who have persistent OME at up to three months of follow-up, when compared with no treatment (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.80; 6 studies, 542 participants; low-certainty evidence). Adverse event: anaphylaxis No studies provided specific data on anaphylaxis. Two of the included studies (180 children) did report adverse events in sufficient detail to assume that no anaphylactic reactions occurred, but the evidence is very uncertain (very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The evidence for the use of antibiotics for OME is of low to very low certainty. Although the use of antibiotics compared to no treatment may have a slight beneficial effect on the resolution of OME at up to three months, the overall impact on hearing is very uncertain. The long-term effects of antibiotics are unclear and few of the studies included in this review reported on potential harms. These important endpoints should be considered when weighing up the potential short- and long-term benefits and harms of antibiotic treatment in a condition with a high spontaneous resolution rate.

Adenoidectomy for otitis media with effusion (OME) in children

BACKGROUND

Otitis media with effusion (OME) is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear cavity, common amongst young children. The fluid may cause hearing loss. When persistent, it may lead to developmental delay, social difficulty and poor quality of life. Management of OME includes watchful waiting, autoinflation, medical and surgical treatment. Adenoidectomy has often been used as a potential treatment for this condition.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of adenoidectomy, either alone or in combination with ventilation tubes (grommets), for OME in children.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane ENT Information Specialist searched the Cochrane ENT Register; Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid Embase; Web of Science; ClinicalTrials.gov; ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished trials. The date of the search was 20 January 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised trials in children aged 6 months to 12 years with unilateral or bilateral OME. We included studies that compared adenoidectomy (alone, or in combination with ventilation tubes) with either no treatment or non-surgical treatment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Primary outcomes (determined following a multi-stakeholder prioritisation exercise): 1) hearing, 2) otitis media-specific quality of life, 3) haemorrhage.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

1) persistence of OME, 2) adverse effects, 3) receptive language skills, 4) speech development, 5) cognitive development, 6) psychosocial skills, 7) listening skills, 8) generic health-related quality of life, 9) parental stress, 10) vestibular function, 11) episodes of acute otitis media. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence for each outcome. Although we included all measures of hearing assessment, the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing was our preferred method to assess hearing, due to challenges in interpreting the results of mean hearing thresholds.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 10 studies (1785 children). Many of the studies used concomitant interventions for all participants, including insertion of ventilation tubes or myringotomy. All included studies had at least some concerns regarding the risk of bias. We report results for our main outcome measures at the longest available follow-up. We did not identify any data on disease-specific quality of life for any of the comparisons. Further details of additional outcomes and time points are reported in the review. 1) Adenoidectomy (with or without myringotomy) versus no treatment/watchful waiting (three studies) After 12 months there was little difference in the proportion of children whose hearing had returned to normal, but the evidence was very uncertain (adenoidectomy 68%, no treatment 70%; risk ratio (RR) 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65 to 1.46; number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) 50; 1 study, 42 participants). There is a risk of haemorrhage from adenoidectomy, but the absolute risk appears small (1/251 receiving adenoidectomy compared to 0/229, Peto odds ratio (OR) 6.77, 95% CI 0.13 to 342.54; 1 study, 480 participants; moderate certainty evidence). The risk of persistent OME may be slightly lower after two years in those receiving adenoidectomy (65% versus 73%), but again the difference was small (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.00; NNTB 13; 3 studies, 354 participants; very low-certainty evidence). 2) Adenoidectomy (with or without myringotomy) versus non-surgical treatment No studies were identified for this comparison. 3) Adenoidectomy and bilateral ventilation tubes versus bilateral ventilation tubes (four studies) There was a slight increase in the proportion of ears with a return to normal hearing after six to nine months (57% adenoidectomy versus 42% without, RR 1.36, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.89; NNTB 7; 1 study, 127 participants (213 ears); very low-certainty evidence). Adenoidectomy may give an increased risk of haemorrhage, but the absolute risk appears small, and the evidence was uncertain (2/416 with adenoidectomy compared to 0/375 in the control group, Peto OR 6.68, 95% CI 0.42 to 107.18; 2 studies, 791 participants). The risk of persistent OME was similar for both groups (82% adenoidectomy and ventilation tubes compared to 85% ventilation tubes alone, RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.07; very low-certainty evidence). 4) Adenoidectomy and unilateral ventilation tube versus unilateral ventilation tube (two studies) Slightly more children returned to normal hearing after adenoidectomy, but the confidence intervals were wide (57% versus 46%, RR 1.24, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.96; NNTB 9; 1 study, 72 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Fewer children may have persistent OME after 12 months, but again the confidence intervals were wide (27.2% compared to 40.5%, RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.29; NNTB 8; 1 study, 74 participants). We did not identify any data on haemorrhage. 5) Adenoidectomy and ventilation tubes versus no treatment/watchful waiting (two studies) We did not identify data on the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing. However, after two years, the mean difference in hearing threshold for those allocated to adenoidectomy was -3.40 dB (95% CI -5.54 to -1.26; 1 study, 211 participants; very low-certainty evidence). There may be a small reduction in the proportion of children with persistent OME after two years, but the evidence was very uncertain (82% compared to 90%, RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.01; NNTB 13; 1 study, 232 participants). We noted that many children in the watchful waiting group had also received surgery by this time point. 6) Adenoidectomy and ventilation tubes versus non-surgical treatment No studies were identified for this comparison.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

When assessed with the GRADE approach, the evidence for adenoidectomy in children with OME is very uncertain. Adenoidectomy may reduce the persistence of OME, although evidence about the effect of this on hearing is unclear. For patients and carers, a return to normal hearing is likely to be important, but few studies measured this outcome. We did not identify any evidence on disease-specific quality of life. There were few data on adverse effects, in particular postoperative bleeding. The risk of haemorrhage appears to be small, but should be considered when choosing a treatment strategy for children with OME. Future studies should aim to determine which children are most likely to benefit from treatment, rather than offering interventions to all children.

Autoinflation for otitis media with effusion (OME) in children

BACKGROUND

Otitis media with effusion (OME) is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear cavity, common amongst young children. The fluid may cause hearing loss. When persistent, it may lead to behavioural problems and a delay in expressive language skills. Management of OME includes watchful waiting, medical, surgical and mechanical treatment. Autoinflation is a self-administered technique, which aims to ventilate the middle ear and encourage middle ear fluid clearance by providing a positive pressure of air in the nose and nasopharynx (using a nasal balloon or other handheld device). This positive pressure (sometimes combined with simultaneous swallow) encourages opening of the Eustachian tube and may help ventilate the middle ear.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the efficacy (benefits and harms) of autoinflation for the treatment of otitis media with effusion in children.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane ENT Information Specialist searched the Cochrane ENT Register; Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid Embase; Web of Science; ClinicalTrials.gov; ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished trials. The date of the search was 20 January 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-randomised trials in children aged 6 months to 12 years with unilateral or bilateral OME. We included studies that compared autoinflation with either watchful waiting (no treatment), non-surgical treatment or ventilation tubes.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were determined following a multi-stakeholder prioritisation exercise and were: 1) hearing, 2) OME-specific quality of life and 3) pain and distress. Secondary outcomes were: 1) persistence of OME, 2) other adverse effects (including eardrum perforation), 3) compliance or adherence to treatment, 4) receptive language skills, 5) speech development, 6) cognitive development, 7) psychosocial skills, 8) listening skills, 9) generic health-related quality of life, 10) parental stress, 11) vestibular function and 12) episodes of acute otitis media. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence for each outcome. Although we included all measures of hearing assessment, the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing was our preferred method to assess hearing, due to challenges in interpreting the results of mean hearing thresholds.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 11 completed studies that met our inclusion criteria (1036 participants). The majority of studies included children aged between 3 and 11 years. Most were carried out in Europe or North America, and they were conducted in both hospital and community settings. All compared autoinflation (using a variety of different methods and devices) to no treatment. Most studies required children to carry out autoinflation two to three times per day, for between 2 and 12 weeks. The outcomes were predominantly assessed just after the treatment phase had been completed. Here we report the effects at the longest follow-up for our main outcome measures. Return to normal hearing The evidence was very uncertain regarding the effect of autoinflation on the return to normal hearing. The longest duration of follow-up was 11 weeks. At this time point, the risk ratio was 2.67 in favour of autoinflation (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.73 to 4.12; 85% versus 32%; number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) 2; 1 study, 94 participants), but the certainty of the evidence was very low. Disease-specific quality of life Autoinflation may result in a moderate improvement in quality of life (related to otitis media) after short-term follow-up. One study assessed quality of life using the Otitis Media Questionnaire-14 (OMQ-14) at three months of follow-up. Results were reported as the number of standard deviations above or below zero difference, with a range from -3 (better) to +3 (worse). The mean difference was -0.42 lower (better) for those who received autoinflation (95% CI -0.62 to -0.22; 1 study, 247 participants; low-certainty evidence; the authors report a change of 0.3 as clinically meaningful). Pain and distress caused by the procedure Autoinflation may result in an increased risk of ear pain, but the evidence was very uncertain. One study assessed this outcome, and identified a risk ratio of 3.50 for otalgia in those who received autoinflation, although the overall occurrence of pain was low (95% CI 0.74 to 16.59; 4.4% versus 1.3%; number needed to treat to harm (NNTH) 32; 1 study, 320 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Persistence of OME The evidence suggests that autoinflation may slightly reduce the persistence of OME at three months. Four studies were included, and the risk ratio for persistence of OME was 0.88 for those receiving autoinflation (95% CI 0.80 to 0.97; 4 studies, 483 participants; absolute reduction of 89 people per 1000 with persistent OME; NNTB 12; low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

All the evidence we identified was of low or very low certainty, meaning that we have little confidence in the estimated effects. However, the data suggest that autoinflation may have a beneficial effect on OME-specific quality of life and persistence of OME in the short term, but the effect is uncertain for return to normal hearing and adverse effects. The potential benefits should be weighed against the inconvenience of regularly carrying out autoinflation, and the possible risk of ear pain.

Prognosis and prediction of antibiotic benefit in adults with clinically diagnosed acute rhinosinusitis: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A previous individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) of antibiotics for adults with clinically diagnosed acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) showed a marginal overall effect of antibiotics, but was unable to identify patients that are most likely to benefit from antibiotics when applying conventional (i.e. univariable or one-variable-at-a-time) subgroup analysis. We updated the systematic review and investigated whether multivariable prediction of patient-level prognosis and antibiotic treatment effect may lead to more tailored treatment assignment in adults presenting to primary care with ARS.

METHODS

An IPD-MA of nine double-blind placebo-controlled trials of antibiotic treatment (n=2539) was conducted, with the probability of being cured at 8-15 days as the primary outcome. A logistic mixed effects model was developed to predict the probability of being cured based on demographic characteristics, signs and symptoms, and antibiotic treatment assignment. Predictive performance was quantified based on internal-external cross-validation in terms of calibration and discrimination performance, overall model fit, and the accuracy of individual predictions.

RESULTS

Results indicate that the prognosis with respect to risk of cure could not be reliably predicted (c-statistic 0.58 and Brier score 0.24). Similarly, patient-level treatment effect predictions did not reliably distinguish between those that did and did not benefit from antibiotics (c-for-benefit 0.50).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, multivariable prediction based on patient demographics and common signs and symptoms did not reliably predict the patient-level probability of cure and antibiotic effect in this IPD-MA. Therefore, these characteristics cannot be expected to reliably distinguish those that do and do not benefit from antibiotics in adults presenting to primary care with ARS.

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, alone or combined, for pain relief in acute otitis media in children

BACKGROUND

Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common childhood infectious diseases. Pain is the key symptom of AOM and central to children's and parents' experience of the illness. Because antibiotics provide only marginal benefits, analgesic treatment including paracetamol (acetaminophen) and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is regarded as the cornerstone of AOM management. This is an update of a review first published in 2016.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary objective was to assess the effectiveness of paracetamol (acetaminophen) or NSAIDs, alone or combined, compared with placebo or no treatment in relieving pain in children with AOM. Our secondary objective was to assess the effectiveness of NSAIDs as compared with paracetamol in children with AOM.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Issue 5, April 2023; MEDLINE (Ovid, from 1946 to May 2023), Embase (from 1947 to May 2023), CINAHL (from 1981 to May 2023), LILACS (from 1982 to May 2023), and Web of Science Core Collection (from 1955 to May 2023). We searched the WHO ICTRP and ClinicalTrials.gov for completed and ongoing trials (23 May 2023).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials comparing the effectiveness of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, for pain relief in non-hospitalised children aged six months to 16 years with AOM. We also included trials of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, for children with fever or upper respiratory tract infections if we were able to extract subgroup data on pain relief in children with AOM either directly or after obtaining additional data from study authors. We extracted and summarised data for the following comparisons: paracetamol versus placebo, NSAIDs versus placebo, NSAIDs versus paracetamol, and NSAIDs plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We rated the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome of interest using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included four trials (411 children) which were assessed at low to high risk of bias. Paracetamol versus placebo Data from one trial (148 children) informed this comparison. Paracetamol may be more effective than placebo in relieving pain at 48 hours (proportion of children with pain 10% versus 25%, risk ratio (RR) 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 0.85; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 7; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effects of paracetamol on fever at 48 hours (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.07 to 16.12; very low-certainty evidence) and adverse events (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.21 to 4.93; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available for our other outcomes of interest. NSAIDs versus placebo Data from one trial (146 children) informed this comparison. Ibuprofen may be more effective than placebo in relieving pain at 48 hours (proportion of children with pain 7% versus 25%, RR 0.28, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.70; NNTB 6; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen on fever at 48 hours (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.07 to 16.57; very low-certainty evidence) and adverse events (RR 1.76, 95% CI 0.44 to 7.10; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available for our other outcomes of interest. NSAIDs versus paracetamol Data from four trials (411 children) informed this comparison. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol in relieving ear pain at 24 hours (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.18; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.54; 3 RCTs, 183 children; low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.17 to 3.23; 2 RCTs, 38 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on mean pain score at 24 hours (0.29 lower, 95% CI 0.79 lower to 0.20 higher; 3 RCTs, 111 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (0.25 lower, 95% CI 0.66 lower to 0.16 higher; 3 RCTs, 108 children; very low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (0.30 higher, 95% CI 1.78 lower to 2.38 higher; 2 RCTs, 31 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol in resolving fever at 24 hours (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.24 to 2.00; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.31 to 4.44; 3 RCTs, 182 children; low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (RR 2.75, 95% CI 0.12 to 60.70; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on adverse events (RR 1.71, 95% CI 0.43 to 6.90; 3 RCTs, 281 children; very low-certainty evidence); reconsultations (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.40; 1 RCT, 53 children; very low-certainty evidence); and delayed antibiotic prescriptions (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.74 to 2.35; 1 RCT, 53 children; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available on time to resolution of pain. NSAIDs plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone Data on the effectiveness of ibuprofen plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone came from two trials that provided crude subgroup data for 71 children with AOM. The small sample provided imprecise effect estimates, therefore we were unable to draw any firm conclusions (very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite explicit guideline recommendations on the use of analgesics in children with AOM, the current evidence on the effectiveness of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, in children with AOM is limited. Paracetamol and ibuprofen as monotherapies may be more effective than placebo in relieving short-term ear pain in children with AOM. The evidence is very uncertain for the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on relieving short-term ear pain in children with AOM, as well as for the effectiveness of ibuprofen plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone, thereby preventing any firm conclusions. Further research is needed to provide insights into the role of ibuprofen as adjunct to paracetamol, and other analgesics such as anaesthetic eardrops, for children with AOM.

Displaying concerns within telephone triage conversations of callers with chest discomfort in out-of-hours primary care: A conversation analytic study

OBJECTIVES

In primary care out of hours service (OHS-PC), triage nurses ask questions to assign urgency level for medical assessment. A semi-automatic decision tool (the Netherlands Triage Standard, NTS) facilitates triage nurses with key questions, but does not leave much room for paying attention to callers' concerns. We wanted to understand how callers with chest pain formulate their concerns and are helped further during telephone triage.

METHODS

We conducted a conversation analytic study of 68 triage calls from callers with chest discomfort who contacted OHS-PC of which we selected 35 transcripts in which concerns were raised. We analyzed expressions of concerns and the corresponding triage nurse response.

RESULTS

Due to the task-oriented nature of the NTS, callers' concerns were overlooked. For callers, however, discussing concerns was relevant, stressed by the finding that the majority of callers with chest discomfort expressed concerns.

CONCLUSIONS

Interactional difficulties in concern-related discussions arised directly after expressed concerns if not handled adequately, or during the switch to the counseling phase.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

When callers display concerns during telephone triage, we recommend triage nurses to explore them briefly and then return to the sequence of tasks described in the NTS-assisted triage process.

Diagnostic accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen self-tests in asymptomatic individuals in the omicron period: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the performances of three commonly used antigen rapid diagnostic tests used as self-tests in asymptomatic individuals in the Omicron period.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional diagnostic test accuracy study in the Omicron period in three public health service COVID-19 test sites in the Netherlands, including 3600 asymptomatic individuals aged ≥ 16 years presenting for SARS-CoV-2 testing for any reason except confirmatory testing after a positive self-test. Participants were sampled for RT-PCR (reference test) and received one self-test (either Acon Flowflex [Flowflex], MP Biomedicals (MPBio), or Siemens-Healthineers CLINITEST [CLINITEST]) to perform unsupervised at home. Diagnostic accuracies of each self-test were calculated.

RESULTS

Overall sensitivities were 27.5% (95% CI, 21.3-34.3%) for Flowflex, 20.9% (13.9-29.4%) for MPBio, and 25.6% (19.1-33.1%) for CLINITEST. After applying a viral load cut-off (≥5.2 log10 SARS-CoV-2 E-gene copies/mL), sensitivities increased to 48.3% (37.6-59.2%), 37.8% (22.5-55.2%), and 40.0% (29.5-51.2%), respectively. Specificities were >99% for all tests in most analyses.

DISCUSSION

The sensitivities of three commonly used SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic tests when used as self-tests in asymptomatic individuals in the Omicron period were very low. Antigen rapid diagnostic test self-testing in asymptomatic individuals may only detect a minority of infections at that point in time. Repeated self-testing in case of a negative self-test is advocated to improve the diagnostic yield, and individuals should be advised to re-test when symptoms develop.

Effectiveness of analgesic ear drops as add-on treatment to oral analgesics in children with acute otitis media: study protocol of the OPTIMA pragmatic randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Ear pain is the most prominent symptom of childhood acute otitis media (AOM). To control the pain and reduce reliance on antibiotics, evidence of effectiveness for alternative interventions is urgently needed. This trial aims to investigate whether analgesic ear drops added to usual care provide superior ear pain relief over usual care alone in children presenting to primary care with AOM.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a pragmatic, two-arm, individually randomised, open, superiority trial with cost-effectiveness analysis and nested mixed-methods process evaluation in general practices in the Netherlands. We aim to recruit 300 children aged 1-6 years with a general practitioner (GP) diagnosis of AOM and ear pain. Children will be randomly allocated (ratio 1:1) to either (1) lidocaine hydrochloride 5 mg/g ear drops (Otalgan) one to two drops up to six times daily for a maximum of 7 days in addition to usual care (oral analgesics, with/without antibiotics); or (2) usual care. Parents will complete a symptom diary for 4 weeks as well as generic and disease-specific quality of life questionnaires at baseline and 4 weeks. The primary outcome is the parent-reported ear pain score (0-10) over the first 3 days. Secondary outcomes include proportion of children consuming antibiotics, oral analgesic use and overall symptom burden in the first 7 days; number of days with ear pain, number of GP reconsultations and subsequent antibiotic prescribing, adverse events, complications of AOM and cost-effectiveness during 4-week follow-up; generic and disease-specific quality of life at 4 weeks; parents' and GPs' views and experiences with treatment acceptability, usability and satisfaction.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Medical Research Ethics Committee Utrecht, the Netherlands, has approved the protocol (21-447/G-D). All parents/guardians of participants will provide written informed consent. Study results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed medical journals and presented at relevant (inter)national scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The Netherlands Trial Register: NL9500; date of registration: 28 May 2021. At the time of publication of the study protocol paper, we were unable to make any amendments to the trial registration record in the Netherlands Trial Register. The addition of a data sharing plan was required to adhere to the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors guidelines. The trial was therefore reregistered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05651633; date of registration: 15 December 2022). This second registration is for modification purposes only and the Netherlands Trial Register record (NL9500) should be regarded as the primary trial registration.

Head-to-head comparison of the accuracy of saliva and nasal rapid antigen SARS-CoV-2 self-testing: cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The diagnostic accuracy of unsupervised self-testing with rapid antigen diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) is mostly unknown. We studied the diagnostic accuracy of a self-performed SARS-CoV-2 saliva and nasal Ag-RDT in the general population.

METHODS

This large cross-sectional study consecutively included unselected individuals aged ≥ 16 years presenting for SARS-CoV-2 testing at three public health service test sites. Participants underwent molecular test sampling and received two self-tests (the Hangzhou AllTest Biotech saliva self-test and the SD Biosensor nasal self-test by Roche Diagnostics) to perform themselves at home. Diagnostic accuracy of both self-tests was assessed with molecular testing as reference.

RESULTS

Out of 2819 participants, 6.5% had a positive molecular test. Overall sensitivities were 46.7% (39.3-54.2%) for the saliva Ag-RDT and 68.9% (61.6-75.6%) for the nasal Ag-RDT. With a viral load cut-off (≥ 5.2 log10 SARS-CoV-2 E-gene copies/mL) as a proxy of infectiousness, these sensitivities increased to 54.9% (46.4-63.3%) and 83.9% (76.9-89.5%), respectively. For the nasal Ag-RDT, sensitivities were 78.5% (71.1-84.8%) and 22.6% (9.6-41.1%) in those symptomatic and asymptomatic at the time of sampling, which increased to 90.4% (83.8-94.9%) and 38.9% (17.3-64.3%) after applying the viral load cut-off. In those with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, sensitivities were 36.8% (16.3-61.6%) and 72.7% (65.1-79.4%). Specificities were > 99% and > 99%, positive predictive values > 70% and > 90%, and negative predictive values > 95% and > 95%, for the saliva and nasal Ag-RDT, respectively, in most analyses. Most participants considered the self-performing and result interpretation (very) easy for both self-tests.

CONCLUSIONS

The Hangzhou AllTest Biotech saliva self Ag-RDT is not reliable for SARS-CoV-2 detection, overall, and in all studied subgroups. The SD Biosensor nasal self Ag-RDT had high sensitivity in individuals with symptoms and in those without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection but low sensitivity in asymptomatic individuals and those with a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection which warrants further investigation.

Diagnostic accuracy of covid-19 rapid antigen tests with unsupervised self-sampling in people with symptoms in the omicron period: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of rapid antigen tests with unsupervised nasal and combined oropharyngeal and nasal self-sampling during the omicron period.

DESIGN

Prospective cross sectional diagnostic test accuracy study.

SETTING

Three public health service covid-19 test sites in the Netherlands, 21 December 2021 to 10 February 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

6497 people with covid-19 symptoms aged ≥16 years presenting for testing.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants had a swab sample taken for reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, reference test) and received one rapid antigen test to perform unsupervised using either nasal self-sampling (during the emergence of omicron, and when omicron accounted for >90% of infections, phase 1) or with combined oropharyngeal and nasal self-sampling in a subsequent (phase 2; when omicron accounted for >99% of infections). The evaluated tests were Flowflex (Acon Laboratories; phase 1 only), MPBio (MP Biomedicals), and Clinitest (Siemens-Healthineers).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of each self-test, with RT-PCR testing as the reference standard.

RESULTS

During phase 1, 45.0% (n=279) of participants in the Flowflex group, 29.1% (n=239) in the MPBio group, and 35.4% ((n=257) in the Clinitest group were confirmatory testers (previously tested positive by a self-test at own initiative). Overall sensitivities with nasal self-sampling were 79.0% (95% confidence interval 74.7% to 82.8%) for Flowflex, 69.9% (65.1% to 74.4%) for MPBio, and 70.2% (65.6% to 74.5%) for Clinitest. Sensitivities were substantially higher in confirmatory testers (93.6%, 83.6%, and 85.7%, respectively) than in those who tested for other reasons (52.4%, 51.5%, and 49.5%, respectively). Sensitivities decreased from 87.0% to 80.9% (P=0.16 by χ² test), 80.0% to 73.0% (P=0.60), and 83.1% to 70.3% (P=0.03), respectively, when transitioning from omicron accounting for 29% of infections to >95% of infections. During phase 2, 53.0% (n=288) of participants in the MPBio group and 44.4% (n=290) in the Clinitest group were confirmatory testers. Overall sensitivities with combined oropharyngeal and nasal self-sampling were 83.0% (78.8% to 86.7%) for MPBio and 77.3% (72.9% to 81.2%) for Clinitest. When combined oropharyngeal and nasal self-sampling was compared with nasal self-sampling, sensitivities were found to be slightly higher in confirmatory testers (87.4% and 86.1%, respectively) and substantially higher in those testing for other reasons (69.3% and 59.9%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Sensitivities of three rapid antigen tests with nasal self-sampling decreased during the emergence of omicron but was only statistically significant for Clinitest. Sensitivities appeared to be substantially influenced by the proportion of confirmatory testers. Sensitivities of MPBio and Clinitest improved after the addition of oropharyngeal to nasal self-sampling. A positive self-test result justifies prompt self-isolation without the need for confirmatory testing. Individuals with a negative self-test result should adhere to general preventive measures because a false negative result cannot be ruled out. Manufacturers of MPBio and Clinitest may consider extending their instructions for use to include combined oropharyngeal and nasal self-sampling, and other manufacturers of rapid antigen tests should consider evaluating this as well.

[Acute ear discharge, a reason for consultation]

It is often thought that acute ear discharge as a presenting symptom of acute otitis media (AOM) means that the infection is petering out. However, children with AOM presenting with ear discharge due to a spontaneous perforation of the eardrum (AOMd) have a poorer prognosis (i.e. higher rates of ear pain and/or fever at 3-7 days) than those without ear discharge. In this article we emphasize the importance of physical examination and early treatment of children and adults who present with acute ear discharge.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population by three prevailing rapid antigen tests: cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Rapid antigen diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) are the most widely used point-of-care tests for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infection. Since the accuracy may have altered by changes in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, indications for testing, sampling and testing procedures, and roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination, we evaluated the performance of three prevailing SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDTs.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we consecutively enrolled individuals aged >16 years presenting for SARS-CoV-2 testing at three Dutch public health service COVID-19 test sites. In the first phase, participants underwent either BD-Veritor System (Becton Dickinson), PanBio (Abbott), or SD-Biosensor (Roche Diagnostics) testing with routine sampling procedures. In a subsequent phase, participants underwent SD-Biosensor testing with a less invasive sampling method (combined oropharyngeal-nasal [OP-N] swab). Diagnostic accuracies were assessed against molecular testing.

RESULTS

Six thousand nine hundred fifty-five of 7005 participants (99%) with results from both an Ag-RDT and a molecular reference test were analysed. SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and overall sensitivities were 13% (188/1441) and 69% (129/188, 95% CI 62-75) for BD-Veritor, 8% (173/2056) and 69% (119/173, 61-76) for PanBio, and 12% (215/1769) and 74% (160/215, 68-80) for SD-Biosensor with routine sampling and 10% (164/1689) and 75% (123/164, 68-81) for SD-Biosensor with OP-N sampling. In those symptomatic or asymptomatic at sampling, sensitivities were 72-83% and 54-56%, respectively. Above a viral load cut-off (≥5.2 log₁₀ SARS-CoV-2 E-gene copies/mL), sensitivities were 86% (125/146, 79-91) for BD-Veritor, 89% (108/121, 82-94) for PanBio, and 88% (160/182, 82-92) for SD-Biosensor with routine sampling and 84% (118/141, 77-89) with OP-N sampling. Specificities were >99% for all tests in most analyses. Sixty-one per cent of false-negative Ag-RDT participants returned for testing within 14 days (median: 3 days, interquartile range 3) of whom 90% tested positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall sensitivities of three SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDTs were 69-75%, increasing to ≥86% above a viral load cut-off. The decreased sensitivity among asymptomatic participants and high positivity rate during follow-up in false-negative Ag-RDT participants emphasise the need for education of the public about the importance of re-testing after an initial negative Ag-RDT should symptoms develop. For SD-Biosensor, the diagnostic accuracy with OP-N and deep nasopharyngeal sampling was similar; adopting the more convenient sampling method might reduce the threshold for professional testing.

Topical or oral antibiotics for children with acute otitis media presenting with ear discharge: study protocol of a randomised controlled non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Around 15%-20% of children with acute otitis media present with ear discharge due to a spontaneous tear or perforation of the eardrum (AOMd). Current guidance recommends clinicians to consider oral antibiotics as first-line treatment in this condition. The opening in the eardrum however should allow topical antibiotics to enter the middle ear directly. Local administration of antibiotics does not expose children to systemic side effects and may put less selective resistance pressure on bacteria. Evidence on the effectiveness of this approach in children with AOMd is lacking.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A primary care-based, open, individually randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial. The trial aims to recruit 350 children aged 6 months to 12 years with AOMd and ear pain and/or fever. Participants will be randomised to 7 days of hydrocortisone-bacitracin-colistin eardrops five drops three times daily or amoxicillin oral suspension 50 mg/kg body weight per day, divided over three doses. Parents will keep a daily diary of AOM symptoms, adverse events and complications for 2 weeks. In addition, they will record AOM recurrences, healthcare utilisation and societal costs for 3 months. The primary outcome is the proportion of children without ear pain and fever at day 3. Secondary outcomes include ear pain and fever intensity/severity; days with ear discharge; eardrum perforation at 2 weeks; adverse events during first 2 weeks; costs; and cost effectiveness at 2 weeks and 3 months. The primary analyses will be intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses will be conducted as well.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The medical research ethics committee Utrecht, The Netherlands has given ethical approval (17-400/G-M). Parents/guardians of participants will provide written informed consent. Study results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed medical journals and presented at relevant (inter)national scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

The Netherlands National Trial Register; NTR6723. Date of registration: 27 November 2017.

Common Infections and Antibiotic Prescribing during the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Primary Care-Based Observational Cohort Study

Presentation and antibiotic prescribing for common infectious disease episodes decreased substantially during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave in Dutch general practice. We set out to determine the course of these variables during the first pandemic year. We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using routine health care data from the Julius General Practitioners’ Network. All patients registered in the pre-pandemic year (n = 425,129) and/or during the first pandemic year (n = 432,122) were included. Relative risks for the number of infectious disease episodes (respiratory tract/ear, urinary tract, gastrointestinal, and skin), in total and those treated with antibiotics, and proportions of episodes treated with antibiotics (prescription rates) were calculated. Compared to the pre-pandemic year, primary care presentation for common infections remained lower during the full first pandemic year (RR, 0.77; CI, 0.76–0.78), mainly attributed to a sustained decline in respiratory tract/ear and gastrointestinal infection episodes. Presentation for urinary tract and skin infection episodes declined during the first wave, but returned to pre-pandemic levels during the second and start of the third wave. Antibiotic prescription rates were lower during the full first pandemic year (24%) as compared to the pre-pandemic year (28%), mainly attributed to a 10% lower prescription rate for respiratory tract/ear infections; the latter was not accompanied by an increase in complications. The decline in primary care presentation for common infections during the full first COVID-19 pandemic year, together with lower prescription rates for respiratory tract/ear infections, resulted in a substantial reduction in antibiotic prescribing in Dutch primary care.

A Strong Decline in the Incidence of Childhood Otitis Media During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Netherlands

Introduction

Recent reports have highlighted the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of infectious disease illnesses and antibiotic use. This study investigates the effect of the pandemic on childhood incidence of otitis media (OM) and associated antibiotic prescribing in a large primary care-based cohort in the Netherlands.

Material and Methods

Retrospective observational cohort study using routine health care data from the Julius General Practitioners’ Network (JGPN). All children aged 0-12 registered in 62 practices before the COVID-19 pandemic (1 March 2019 - 29 February 2020) and/or during the pandemic (1 March 2020 - 28 February 2021) were included. Data on acute otitis media (AOM), otitis media with effusion (OME), ear discharge episodes and associated antibiotic prescriptions were extracted. Incidence rates per 1,000 child years (IR), incidence rate ratios (IRR) and incidence rate differences (IRD) were compared between the two study periods.

Results

OM episodes declined considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic: IR pre-COVID-19 vs COVID-19 for AOM 73.7 vs 27.1 [IRR 0.37]; for OME 9.6 vs 4.1 [IRR 0.43]; and for ear discharge 12.6 vs 5.8 [IRR 0.46]. The absolute number of AOM episodes in which oral antibiotics were prescribed declined accordingly (IRD pre-COVID-19 vs COVID-19: -22.4 per 1,000 child years), but the proportion of AOM episodes with antibiotic prescription was similar in both periods (47% vs 46%, respectively).

Discussion

GP consultation for AOM, OME and ear discharge declined by 63%, 57% and 54% respectively in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar antibiotic prescription rates before and during the pandemic indicate that the case-mix presenting to primary care did not considerably change. Our data therefore suggest a true decline as a consequence of infection control measures introduced during the pandemic.

Prevalence and Antimicrobial Resistance of Bacteria in Children With Acute Otitis Media and Ear Discharge: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Of children with acute otitis media (AOM), 15%-20% present with acute onset ear discharge due to a spontaneous perforation of the tympanic membrane (AOMd). This review aims to quantify the prevalence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) status of bacteria in children with AOMd in the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) era.

METHODS

Systematic searches were performed in PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library from inception to June 7, 2019. Two reviewers extracted relevant data and assessed risk of bias independently. All English studies reporting any prevalence and/or AMR data of bacterial middle ear isolates from children with AOMd were included. Risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal checklist.

RESULTS

Of 4088 unique records retrieved, 19 studies (10,560 children) were included. Overall quality was judged good. Streptococcus pneumoniae (median 26.1%, range 9.1%-47.9%), Haemophilus influenzae (median 18.8%, range 3.9%-55.3%), Staphylococcus aureus (median 12.3%, range 2.3%-34.9%) and Streptococcus pyogenes (median 11.8%, range 1.0%-30.9%) were the most prevalent bacteria. In 76.0% (median, range 48.7%-100.0%, 19 studies, 1,429 children) any bacterium was identified. AMR data were sparse and mainly limited to S. pneumoniae. We found no evidence of a clear shift in the prevalence of bacteria and AMR over time.

CONCLUSIONS

In children with AOMd, S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae are the 2 predominant bacteria, followed by S. aureus and S. pyogenes in the post-PCV era. AMR data are sparse and no clearly change over time was observed. Ongoing surveillance of the microbiology profile in children with AOMd is warranted to guide antibiotic selection and to assess the impact of children's PCV status.

Incidence and management of acute otitis media in adults: a primary care-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although primarily considered a childhood disease, acute otitis media (AOM) also occurs in adults. Data on the burden of this condition in adults are, however, scarce.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the primary care incidence and current management of AOM in adults.

METHODS

All patients aged 15 and older included in the routine health care database of the Julius General Practitioners' Network were followed from 2015 to 2018 (contributing to a total of 1 261 575 person-years). We extracted data on AOM episodes, AOM-related consultations, comorbidities, and antibiotic and analgesic prescriptions.

RESULTS

Five thousand three hundred and fifty-eight patients experienced one or more AOM episodes (total number of AOM episodes: 6667; mean 1.2 per patient). The overall AOM incidence was 5.3/1000 person-years and was fairly stable over the study period. Incidence was particularly high in atopic patients (7.3/1000 person-years) and declined with age (from 7.1 in patients 15-39 years of age to 2.7/1000 person-years in those aged 64 years and older). Oral antibiotics, predominantly amoxicillin, were prescribed in 46%, and topical antibiotics in 21% of all episodes.

CONCLUSION

Over the past years, the incidence of AOM in adults in primary care has been stable. Oral antibiotic prescription rates resemble those in children with AOM, whereas a remarkably high topical antibiotic prescription rate was observed. Future prognostic research should inform on the need and feasibility of prospective studies into the best management strategy in this condition.

Diagnostic accuracy of rapid antigen tests in asymptomatic and presymptomatic close contacts of individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic test accuracy of two rapid antigen tests in asymptomatic and presymptomatic close contacts of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection on day 5 after exposure.

DESIGN

Prospective cross sectional study.

SETTING

Four public health service covid-19 test sites in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

4274 consecutively included close contacts (identified through test-and-trace programme or contact tracing app) aged 16 years or older and asymptomatic for covid-19 when requesting a test.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of Veritor System (Beckton Dickinson) and Biosensor (Roche Diagnostics) rapid antigen tests, with reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing as reference standard. The viral load cut-off above which 95% of people with a positive RT-PCR test result were virus culture positive was used as a proxy of infectiousness.

RESULTS

Of 2678 participants tested with Veritor, 233 (8.7%) had a RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection of whom 149 were also detected by the rapid antigen test (sensitivity 63.9%, 95% confidence interval 57.4% to 70.1%). Of 1596 participants tested with Biosensor, 132 (8.3%) had a RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection of whom 83 were detected by the rapid antigen test (sensitivity 62.9%, 54.0% to 71.1%). In those who were still asymptomatic at the time of sampling, sensitivity was 58.7% (51.1% to 66.0%) for Veritor (n=2317) and 59.4% (49.2% to 69.1%) for Biosensor (n=1414), and in those who developed symptoms were 84.2% (68.7% to 94.0%; n=219) for Veritor and 73.3% (54.1% to 87.7%; n=158) for Biosensor. When a viral load cut-off was applied for infectiouness (≥5.2 log10 SARS-CoV-2 E gene copies/mL), the overall sensitivity was 90.1% (84.2% to 94.4%) for Veritor and 86.8% (78.1% to 93.0%) for Biosensor, and 88.1% (80.5% to 93.5%) for Veritor and 85.1% (74.3% to 92.6%) for Biosensor, among those who remained asymptomatic throughout. Specificities were >99%, and positive and negative predictive values were >90% and >95%, for both rapid antigen tests in all analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The sensitivities of both rapid antigen tests in asymptomatic and presymptomatic close contacts tested on day 5 onwards after close contact with an index case were more than 60%, increasing to more than 85% after a viral load cut-off was applied as a proxy for infectiousness.

Identifying adults with acute rhinosinusitis in primary care that benefit most from antibiotics: protocol of an individual patient data meta-analysis using multivariable risk prediction modelling

INTRODUCTION

Acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) is a prime reason for doctor visits and among the conditions with highest antibiotic overprescribing rates in adults. To reduce inappropriate prescribing, we aim to predict the absolute benefit of antibiotic treatment for individual adult patients with ARS by applying multivariable risk prediction methods to individual patient data (IPD) of multiple randomised placebo-controlled trials.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an update and re-analysis of a 2008 IPD meta-analysis on antibiotics for adults with clinically diagnosed ARS. First, the reference list of the 2018 Cochrane review on antibiotics for ARS will be reviewed for relevant studies published since 2008. Next, the systematic searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE and Embase of the Cochrane review will be updated to 1 September 2020. Methodological quality of eligible studies will be assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool. The primary outcome is cure at 8-15 days. Regression-based methods will be used to model the risk of being cured based on relevant predictors and treatment, while accounting for clustering. Such model allows for risk predictions as a function of treatment and individual patient characteristics and hence gives insight into individualised absolute benefit. Candidate predictors will be based on literature, clinical reasoning and availability. Calibration and discrimination will be evaluated to assess model performance. Resampling techniques will be used to assess internal validation. In addition, internal-external cross-validation procedures will be used to inform on between-study differences and estimate out-of-sample model performance. Secondarily, we will study possible heterogeneity of treatment effect as a function of outcome risk.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

In this study, no identifiable patient data will be used. As such, the Medical Research Involving Humans Subject Act (WMO) does not apply and official ethical approval is not required. Results will be submitted for publication in international peer-reviewed journals.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020220108.

Cost of childhood acute otitis media in primary care in the Netherlands: economic analysis alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Acute otitis media (AOM) is among the most common paediatric conditions managed in primary care. Most recent estimates of the cost of AOM date from a decade ago and lack a full societal perspective. We therefore explored the societal cost of childhood AOM in the Netherlands within the setting of a trial comparing the effectiveness of an intervention aimed at educating general practitioners (GPs) about pain management in AOM compared to usual care.

METHODS

Economic analysis alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial conducted between February 2015 and May 2018 in 37 practices (94 GPs). In total, 224 children with AOM were included of which 223 (99%) completed the trial (intervention: n = 94; control: n = 129). The cost of AOM due to health care costs, patient and family costs, and productivity losses by parent caregivers were retrieved from study diaries and primary care electronic health records, during 28-day follow-up. We calculated mean cost (€ and $) per AOM episode per patient with standard deviations (SD, in €) regardless of study group assignment because there was no clinical effect of the trial intervention. In sensitivity analysis, we calculated cost in the intervention and usual care group, after exclusion of extreme outliers.

RESULTS

Mean total AOM cost per patient were €565.93 or $638.78 (SD €1071.01); nearly 90% of these costs were due to productivity losses experienced by parents. After exclusion of outliers, AOM cost was €526.70 or $594.50 (SD €987.96) and similar in the intervention and usual care groups: €516.10 or $582.53 (SD €949.69) and €534.55 or $603.36 (SD €920.55) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

At €566 or $639 per episode, societal cost of AOM is higher than previously known and mainly driven by productivity losses by children's parents. Considering its high incidence, AOM poses a significant economic burden that extends beyond direct medical costs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Netherlands Trial Register no. NTR4920: http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=4920 .

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines for preventing acute otitis media in children

BACKGROUND

Prior to introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), Streptococcus pneumoniae was most commonly isolated from the middle ear fluid of children with acute otitis media (AOM). Reducing nasopharyngeal colonisation of this bacterium by PCVs may lead to a decline in AOM. The effects of PCVs deserve ongoing monitoring since studies from the post-PCV era report a shift in causative otopathogens towards non-vaccine serotypes and other bacteria. This updated Cochrane Review was first published in 2002 and updated in 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of PCVs in preventing AOM in children up to 12 years of age.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, LILACS, Web of Science, and two trials registers, ClinicalTrials.gov and WHO ICTRP, to 11 June 2020.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials of PCV versus placebo or control vaccine.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. The primary outcomes were frequency of all-cause AOM and adverse effects. Secondary outcomes included frequency of pneumococcal AOM and frequency of recurrent AOM (defined as three or more AOM episodes in six months or four or more in one year). We used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 15 publications of 11 trials (60,733 children, range 74 to 37,868 per trial) of 7- to 11-valent PCVs versus control vaccines (meningococcus type C vaccine in three trials, and hepatitis A or B vaccine in eight trials). We included one additional publication of a previously included trial for this 2020 update. We did not find any relevant trials with the newer 13-valent PCV. Most studies were funded by pharmaceutical companies. Overall, risk of bias was low. In seven trials (59,415 children), PCVs were administered in early infancy, whilst four trials (1318 children) included children aged one year and over who were either healthy or had a history of respiratory illness. There was considerable clinical heterogeneity across studies, therefore we reported results from individual studies. PCV administered in early infancy PCV7 The licenced 7-valent PCV with CRM197 as carrier protein (CRM197-PCV7) was associated with a 6% (95% confidence interval (CI) -4% to 16%; 1 trial; 1662 children) and 6% (95% CI 4% to 9%; 1 trial; 37,868 children) relative risk reduction (RRR) in low-risk infants (moderate-certainty evidence), but was not associated with a reduction in all-cause AOM in high-risk infants (RRR -5%, 95% CI -25% to 12%). PCV7 with the outer membrane protein complex of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B as carrier protein (OMPC-PCV7) was not associated with a reduction in all-cause AOM (RRR -1%, 95% CI -12% to 10%; 1 trial; 1666 children; low-certainty evidence). CRM197-PCV7 and OMPC-PCV7 were associated with 20% (95% CI 7% to 31%) and 25% (95% CI 11% to 37%) RRR in pneumococcal AOM, respectively (2 trials; 3328 children; high-certainty evidence), and CRM197-PCV7 with 9% (95% CI -12% to 27%) and 10% (95% CI 7% to 13%) RRR in recurrent AOM (2 trials; 39,530 children; moderate-certainty evidence). PHiD-CV10/11 The effect of a licenced 10-valent PCV conjugated to protein D, a surface lipoprotein of Haemophilus influenzae, (PHiD-CV10) on all-cause AOM in healthy infants varied from 6% (95% CI -6% to 17%; 1 trial; 5095 children) to 15% (95% CI -1% to 28%; 1 trial; 7359 children) RRR (low-certainty evidence). PHiD-CV11 was associated with 34% (95% CI 21% to 44%) RRR in all-cause AOM (1 trial; 4968 children; moderate-certainty evidence). PHiD-CV10 and PHiD-CV11 were associated with 53% (95% CI 16% to 74%) and 52% (95% CI 37% to 63%) RRR in pneumococcal AOM (2 trials; 12,327 children; high-certainty evidence), and PHiD-CV11 with 56% (95% CI -2% to 80%) RRR in recurrent AOM (1 trial; 4968 children; low-certainty evidence). PCV administered at a later age PCV7 We found no evidence of a beneficial effect on all-cause AOM of administering CRM197-PCV7 in children aged 1 to 7 years with a history of respiratory illness or frequent AOM (2 trials; 457 children; moderate-certainty evidence) and CRM197-PCV7 combined with a trivalent influenza vaccine in children aged 18 to 72 months with a history of respiratory tract infections (1 trial; 597 children; moderate-certainty evidence). CRM197-PCV9 In 1 trial including 264 healthy daycare attendees aged 1 to 3 years, CRM197-PCV9 was associated with 17% (95% CI -2% to 33%) RRR in parent-reported all-cause otitis media (very low-certainty evidence). Adverse events Nine trials reported on adverse effects (77,389 children; high-certainty evidence). Mild local reactions and fever were common in both groups, and occurred more frequently in PCV than in control vaccine groups: redness (< 2.5 cm): 5% to 20% versus 0% to 16%; swelling (< 2.5 cm): 5% to 12% versus 0% to 8%; and fever (< 39 °C): 15% to 44% versus 8% to 25%. More severe redness (> 2.5 cm), swelling (> 2.5 cm), and fever (> 39 °C) occurred less frequently (0% to 0.9%, 0.1% to 1.3%, and 0.4% to 2.5%, respectively) in children receiving PCV, and did not differ significantly between PCV and control vaccine groups. Pain or tenderness, or both, was reported more frequently in PCV than in control vaccine groups: 3% to 38% versus 0% to 8%. Serious adverse events judged to be causally related to vaccination were rare and did not differ significantly between groups, and no fatal serious adverse event judged causally related to vaccination was reported.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Administration of the licenced CRM197-PCV7 and PHiD-CV10 during early infancy is associated with large relative risk reductions in pneumococcal AOM. However, the effects of these vaccines on all-cause AOM is far more uncertain based on low- to moderate-certainty evidence. We found no evidence of a beneficial effect on all-cause AOM of administering PCVs in high-risk infants, after early infancy, and in older children with a history of respiratory illness. Compared to control vaccines, PCVs were associated with an increase in mild local reactions (redness, swelling), fever, and pain and/or tenderness. There was no evidence of a difference in more severe local reactions, fever, or serious adverse events judged to be causally related to vaccination.

Tonsillectomy versus tonsillotomy for obstructive sleep-disordered breathing in children

BACKGROUND

Obstructive sleep-disordered breathing (oSDB) is a condition encompassing breathing problems when asleep due to upper airway obstruction. In children, hypertrophy of the tonsils and/or adenoids is thought to be the commonest cause. As such, (adeno)tonsillectomy has long been the treatment of choice. A rise in partial removal of the tonsils over the last decade is due to the hypothesis that tonsillotomy is associated with lower postoperative morbidity and fewer complications.

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether partial removal of the tonsils (intracapsular tonsillotomy) is as effective as total removal of the tonsils (extracapsular tonsillectomy) in relieving signs and symptoms of oSDB in children, and has lower postoperative morbidity and fewer complications.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane ENT Trials Register; Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; Web of Science; ClinicalTrials.gov; ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished trials. The search date was 22 July 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the effectiveness of (adeno)tonsillectomy with (adeno)tonsillotomy in children aged 2 to 16 years with oSDB.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods and assessed the certainty of the evidence for our pre-defined outcomes using GRADE. Our primary outcomes were disease-specific quality of life, peri-operative blood loss and the proportion of children requiring postoperative medical intervention (with or without hospitalisation). Secondary outcomes included postoperative pain, return to normal activity, recurrence of oSDB symptoms as a result of tonsil regrowth and reoperation rates.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 22 studies (1984 children), with predominantly unclear or high risk of bias. Three studies used polysomnography as part of their inclusion criteria. Follow-up duration ranged from six days to six years. Although 19 studies reported on some of our outcomes, we could only pool the results from a few due both to the variety of outcomes and the measurement instruments used, and an absence of combinable data. Disease-specific quality of life Four studies (540 children; 484 (90%) analysed) reported this outcome; data could not be pooled due to the different outcome measurement instruments used. It is very uncertain whether there is any difference in disease-specific quality of life between the two surgical procedures in the short (0 to 6 months; 3 studies, 410 children), medium (7 to 13 months; 2 studies, 117 children) and long term (13 to 24 months; 1 study, 67 children) (very low-certainty evidence). Peri-operative blood loss We are uncertain whether tonsillotomy reduces peri-operative blood loss by a clinically meaningful amount (mean difference (MD) 14.06 mL, 95% CI 1.91 to 26.21 mL; 8 studies, 610 children; very low-certainty evidence). In sensitivity analysis (restricted to three studies with low risk of bias) there was no evidence of a difference between the groups. Postoperative complications requiring medical intervention (with or without hospitalisation) The risk of postoperative complications in the first week after surgery was probably lower in children who underwent tonsillotomy (4.9% versus 2.6%, risk ratio (RR) 1.75, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.91; 16 studies, 1416 children; moderate-certainty evidence). Postoperative pain Eleven studies (1017 children) reported this outcome. Pain was measured using various scales and scored by either children, parents, clinicians or study personnel. When considering postoperative pain there was little or no difference between tonsillectomy and tonsillotomy at 24 hours (10-point scale) (MD 1.09, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.29; 4 studies, 368 children); at two to three days (MD 0.93, 95% CI -0.14 to 2.00; 3 studies, 301 children); or at four to seven days (MD 1.07, 95% CI -0.40 to 2.53; 4 studies, 370 children) (all very low-certainty evidence). In sensitivity analysis (restricted to studies with low risk of bias), we found no evidence of a difference in mean pain scores between groups. Return to normal activity Tonsillotomy probably results in a faster return to normal activity. Children who underwent tonsillotomy were able to return to normal activity four days earlier (MD 3.84 days, 95% CI 0.23 to 7.44; 3 studies, 248 children; moderate-certainty evidence). Recurrence of oSDB and reoperation rates We are uncertain whether there is a difference between the groups in the short (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.03 to 2.22; 3 studies, 186 children), medium (RR 0.35, 95% CI 0.04 to 3.23; 4 studies, 206 children) or long term (RR 0.21 95% CI 0.01 to 4.13; 1 study, 65 children) (all very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

For children with oSDB selected for tonsil surgery, tonsillotomy probably results in a faster return to normal activity (four days) and in a slight reduction in postoperative complications requiring medical intervention in the first week after surgery. This should be balanced against the clinical effectiveness of one operation over the other. However, this is not possible to determine in this review as data on the long-term effects of the two operations on oSDB symptoms, quality of life, oSDB recurrence and need for reoperation are limited and the evidence is of very low quality leading to a high degree of uncertainty about the results. More robust data from high-quality cohort studies, which may be more appropriate for detecting differences in less common events in the long term, are required to inform guidance on which tonsil surgery technique is best for children with oSDB requiring surgery.

Panel 5: Impact of otitis media on quality of life and development

OBJECTIVE

To summarize recent advances in knowledge on otitis media (OM) and quality of life (QoL) and development by synthesizing relevant research in this field published between June 1., 2015 until June 1., 2019.

DATA SOURCES

Systematic searches of PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library using predefined database-specific syntaxes.

REVIEW METHODS

Articles selected were randomized controlled trials and observational studies with an adequate control group estimating treatment effects of OM including acute OM (AOM), recurrent AOM (RAOM), OM with effusion (OME), chronic OM (COM) and chronic suppurative OM (CSOM). Items included were Health Status, Health Status Indicators, Quality of Life, Functional Status, Specific Learning Disorder, Developmental Disabilities, Language Development Disorders, and Problem Behavior.

RESULTS

The electronic database searches yielded a total of 699 records. After screening titles and abstracts, we identified 34 potentially eligible articles. Of these, 18 were excluded. This left 15 articles suitable for inclusion.

CONCLUSIONS

Although evidence is accumulating that OM may significantly impair children's QoL and development as well as caregiver's QoL, studies on this topic are relatively scarce and vary substantially in terms of methodological quality and outcome measurement instruments (OMI) used. In this review, studies have used 10 different OMIs capturing a wide range of OM symptoms as well as generic and disease-specific QoL outcomes. OM was associated with negative effects on auditory processing, language and speech development, school readiness, social competence, psychosocial wellbeing, and sleep. We found only four relevant randomized controlled trials, which mostly failed to demonstrate superiority of interventions in terms of QoL improvement and reports on reversibility are lacking. This underpins the urgent need for high quality studies in this field using validated and uniform OMIs. To facilitate interpretation and harmonization of study findings, we suggest and support the development of a core outcome set for the various OM entities that should include the most reliable and meaningful QoL and developmental OMIs.

Tonsillectomy for periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis and cervical adenitis syndrome (PFAPA)

BACKGROUND

Periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis and cervical adenitis (PFAPA) syndrome is a rare clinical syndrome of unknown cause usually identified in children. Tonsillectomy is considered a potential treatment option for this syndrome. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in 2010 and previously updated in 2014.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness and safety of tonsillectomy (with or without adenoidectomy) compared with non-surgical treatment in the management of children with PFAPA.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane ENT Information Specialist searched the Cochrane ENT Trials Register; Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL 2019, Issue 4); PubMed; Ovid Embase; CINAHL; Web of Science; ClinicalTrials.gov; ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished trials. The date of the search was 15 October 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials comparing tonsillectomy (with or without adenoidectomy) with non-surgical treatment in children with PFAPA.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. The primary outcomes were the proportion of children whose symptoms have completely resolved and complications of surgery (haemorrhage and number of days of postoperative pain). Secondary outcomes were: number of episodes of fever and the associated symptoms; severity of episodes; use of corticosteroids; absence or time off school; quality of life. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence for each outcome.

MAIN RESULTS

Two trials were included with a total of 67 children randomised (65 analysed); we judged both to be at low risk of bias. One trial of 39 participants recruited children with PFAPA syndrome diagnosed according to rigid, standard criteria. The trial compared adenotonsillectomy to watchful waiting and followed up patients for 18 months. A smaller trial of 28 children applied less stringent criteria for diagnosing PFAPA and probably also included participants with alternative types of recurrent pharyngitis. This trial compared tonsillectomy alone to no treatment and followed up patients for six months. Combining the trial results suggests that patients with PFAPA likely experience less fever and less severe episodes after surgery compared to those receiving no surgery. The risk ratio (RR) for immediate resolution of symptoms after surgery that persisted until the end of follow-up was 4.38 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 30.11); number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) = 2, calculated based on an estimate that 156 in 1000 untreated children have a resolution) (moderate-certainty evidence). Both trials reported that there were no complications of surgery. However, the numbers of patients randomly allocated to surgery (19 and 14 patients respectively) were too small to detect potentially important complications such as haemorrhage. Surgery probably results in a large overall reduction in the average number of episodes over the total length of follow-up (rate ratio 0.08, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.13), reducing the average frequency of PFAPA episodes from one every two months to slightly less than one every two years (moderate-certainty evidence). Surgery also likely reduces severity, as indicated by the length of PFAPA symptoms during these episodes. One study reported that the average number of days per PFAPA episode was 1.7 days after receiving surgery, compared to 3.5 days in the control group (moderate-certainty evidence). The evidence suggests that the proportion of patients requiring corticosteroids was also lower in the surgery group compared to those receiving no surgery (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.92) (low-certainty evidence). Other outcomes such as absence from school and quality of life were not measured or reported.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The evidence for the effectiveness of tonsillectomy in children with PFAPA syndrome is derived from two small randomised controlled trials. These trials reported significant beneficial effects of surgery compared to no surgery on immediate and complete symptom resolution (NNTB = 2) and a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity (length of episode) of any further symptoms experienced. However, the evidence is of moderate certainty (further research is likely to have an important impact on our confidence in the estimate of effect and may change the estimate) due to the relatively small sample sizes of the studies and some concerns about the applicability of the results. Therefore, the parents and carers of children with PFAPA syndrome must weigh the risks and consequences of surgery against the alternative of using medications. It is well established that children with PFAPA syndrome recover spontaneously and medication can be administered to try and reduce the severity of individual episodes. It is uncertain whether adenoidectomy combined with tonsillectomy adds any additional benefit to tonsillectomy alone.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines for preventing acute otitis media in children

BACKGROUND

Prior to introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), Streptococcus pneumoniae was most commonly isolated from middle ear fluid of children with acute otitis media (AOM). Reducing nasopharyngeal colonisation of this bacterium by PCVs may lead to a decline in AOM. The effects of PCVs deserve ongoing monitoring since studies from the post-PCV era report a shift in causative otopathogens towards non-vaccine serotypes and other bacteria. This updated Cochrane Review was first published in 2002 and updated in 2004, 2009, and 2014. The review title was changed (to include the population, i.e. children) for this update.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of PCVs in preventing AOM in children up to 12 years of age.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, LILACS, Web of Science, and trials registers (ClinicalTrials.gov and WHO ICTRP) to 29 March 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials of PCV versus placebo or control vaccine.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. The primary outcomes were frequency of all-cause AOM and adverse effects. Secondary outcomes included frequency of pneumococcal AOM and frequency of recurrent AOM (defined as three or more AOM episodes in six months or four or more in one year). We used GRADE to assess the quality of the evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 14 publications of 11 trials (60,733 children, range 74 to 37,868 per trial) of 7- to 11-valent PCVs versus control vaccines (meningococcus type C vaccine in three trials, and hepatitis A or B vaccine in eight trials). We included two additional trials for this update. We did not find any relevant trials with the newer 13-valent PCV. Most studies were funded by pharmaceutical companies. Overall, risk of bias was low. In seven trials (59,415 children) PCVs were administered in early infancy, while four trials (1318 children) included children aged one year and over who were either healthy or had a history of respiratory illness. There was considerable clinical heterogeneity across studies, therefore we did not perform meta-analyses.Adverse eventsNine trials reported on adverse effects (77,389 children; high-quality evidence). Mild local reactions and fever were common in both groups, and occurred more frequently in PCV than in control vaccine groups: redness (< 2.5 cm): 5% to 20% versus 0% to 16%; swelling (< 2.5 cm): 5% to 12% versus 0% to 8%; and fever (< 39 °C): 15% to 44% versus 8% to 25%. More severe redness (> 2.5 cm), swelling (> 2.5 cm), and fever (> 39 °C) occurred less frequently (0% to 0.9%, 0.1% to 1.3%, and 0.4% to 2.5%, respectively in children receiving PCV) and did not differ significantly between PCV and control vaccine groups. Pain or tenderness, or both was reported more frequently in PCV than in control vaccine groups: 3% to 38% versus 0% to 8%. Serious adverse events judged causally related to vaccination were rare and did not differ significantly between groups, and no fatal serious adverse event judged causally related to vaccination was reported.PCV administered in early infancyPCV7The effect of a licenced 7-valent PCV with CRM197 as carrier protein (CRM197-PCV7) on all-cause AOM varied from -5% (95% confidence interval (CI) -25% to 12%) relative risk reduction (RRR) in high-risk infants (1 trial; 944 children; moderate-quality evidence) to 6% (95% CI -4% to 16%; 1 trial; 1662 children) and 6% (95% CI 4% to 9%; 1 trial; 37,868 children) RRR in low-risk infants (high-quality evidence). PCV7 with the outer membrane protein complex of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B as carrier protein (OMPC-PCV7), was not associated with a reduction in all-cause AOM (RRR -1%, 95% CI -12% to 10%; 1 trial; 1666 children; high-quality evidence).CRM197-PCV7 and OMPC-PCV7 were associated with 20% (95% CI 7% to 31%) and 25% (95% CI 11% to 37%) RRR in pneumococcal AOM, respectively (2 trials; 3328 children; high-quality evidence) and CRM197-PCV7 with 9% (95% CI -12% to 27%) to 10% (95% CI 7% to 13%) RRR in recurrent AOM (2 trials; 39,530 children; high-quality evidence).PHiD-CV10/11The effect of a licenced 10-valent PCV conjugated to protein D, a surface lipoprotein of Haemophilus influenzae, (PHiD-CV10) on all-cause AOM varied from 6% (95% CI -6% to 17%; 1 trial; 5095 children) to 15% (95% CI -1% to 28%; 1 trial; 7359 children) RRR in healthy infants (moderate-quality evidence). PHiD-CV11 was associated with 34% (95% CI 21% to 44%) RRR in all-cause AOM (1 trial; 4968 children; high-quality evidence).PHiD-CV10 and PHiD-CV11 were associated with 53% (95% CI 16% to 74%) and 52% (95% CI 37% to 63%) RRR in pneumococcal AOM (2 trials; 12,327 children; high-quality evidence) and PHiD-CV11 with 56% (95% CI -2% to 80%) RRR in recurrent AOM (1 trial; 4968 children; moderate-quality evidence).PCV administered at later agePCV7We found no evidence of a beneficial effect on all-cause AOM of administering CRM197-PCV7 in children aged 1 to 7 years with a history of respiratory illness or frequent AOM (2 trials; 457 children; high-quality evidence) and CRM197-PCV7 combined with a trivalent influenza vaccine in children aged 18 to 72 months with a history of respiratory tract infections (1 trial; 597 children; high-quality evidence).CRM197-PCV9In 1 trial including 264 healthy day-care attendees aged 1 to 3 years, CRM197-PCV9 was associated with 17% (95% CI -2% to 33%) RRR in parent-reported all-cause OM (low-quality evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Administration of the licenced CRM197-PCV7 and PHiD-CV10 during early infancy is associated with large relative risk reductions in pneumococcal AOM. However, the effects of these vaccines on all-cause AOM is far more uncertain. We found no evidence of a beneficial effect on all-cause AOM of administering PCVs in high-risk infants, after early infancy (i.e. in children one year and above), and in older children with a history of respiratory illness. Compared to control vaccines, PCVs were associated with an increase in mild local reactions (redness, swelling), fever, and pain and/or tenderness. We found no evidence of a difference in more severe local reactions, fever, or serious adverse events judged causally related to vaccination.

Does pneumococcal conjugate vaccination affect onset and risk of first acute otitis media and recurrences? A primary care-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

It has been hypothesized that widespread implementation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) in infancy reduces early AOM and thereby prevents further AOM episodes and associated health care resource use.

METHODS

We tested this hypothesis by applying an extension of the original Cox proportional hazards model (Prentice, Williams and Petersons' total time) to individual AOM episodes recorded in pseudonymised primary care electronic health records of 18,237 Dutch children born between 2004 and 2015. Children were assigned to three groups: no-PCV (January 2004-March 2006), PCV7 (April 2006-February 2011) and PCV10 (March 2011-February 2015).

RESULTS

Of the 18,237 newborns, 6967 (38%) experienced at least one GP-diagnosed AOM episode up to the age of four years (median age at first AOM: 12 months, interquartile range: 12; total number of AOM episodes: 14,689). Time-to-first AOM was longest in the PCV10 group compared with the PCV7 and no-PCV groups (log rank test: P < 0.001); in these groups 30% had experienced a first AOM at 20, 17 and 15 months, respectively. Children in the PCV10 group had a 21% lower risk of experiencing a first AOM episode than those in the no-PCV group (hazard ratio (HR): 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.86), while the effect was less pronounced for the PCV7 group (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.87-1.02). Neither PCV7 nor PCV10 reduced the risk of AOM recurrences. Compared to no-PCV, HRs for overall AOM were 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.06) and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.95) for PCV7 and PCV10, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our cohort study suggests that PCV postpones the onset and reduces the risk of first AOM without affecting recurrences. The impact of PCV on overall AOM in children up to the age of four years seems therefore largely attributable to the prevention of a first AOM episode.

Pain management in acute otitis media: a qualitative study of parents' views and expectations

BACKGROUND

For unclarified reasons, parents tend to be cautious about administering analgesics to their children, potentially leading to suboptimal management of AOM symptoms. We aim to understand parents' views and expectations of pain management in acute otitis media (AOM) in children.

METHODS

Qualitative study alongside a cluster-randomised controlled trial (PIM-POM study) aimed at optimising pain management in childhood AOM. We purposefully sampled 14 parents of children diagnosed with AOM by their GP, who were recruited to the trial between November 2017 and May 2018. Semi-structured interviews were held at home in the first two weeks after trial enrollment. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analyzed thematically.

RESULTS

Parents experienced difficulties in recognising earache and other symptoms of an ear infection. They consulted the GP for a diagnosis, for reassurance and for management advice. Parents shared that, prior to consultation, they had insufficient knowledge of the benefits of correctly dosed pain medication at regularly scheduled intervals. Parents valued the GP's advice on pain management, and were happy to accept pain medication as standalone therapy, provided that the GP explained why antibiotics would not be needed. Parents' views and expectations of pain management in AOM were shaped by previous experiences of AOM within their family; those with a positive experience of pain medication are more likely to use it in subsequent AOM episodes.

CONCLUSIONS

Parents of children with AOM consult the GP to help cope with uncertainties in recognising symptoms of AOM, and to receive management advice. It is important that GPs are aware of parents' lack of understanding of the role of pain medication in managing AOM, and that they address this during the consultation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Netherlands Trial Register, identifier NTR4920 (registration date: 19 December 2014).

Impact of Repeated Influenza Immunization on Respiratory Illness in Children With Preexisting Medical Conditions

PURPOSE

Annual influenza immunization in medical risk groups is recommended in many countries. Recent evidence suggests that repeated inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) immunization throughout childhood may impair long-term immunity against influenza. We assessed whether prior immunization altered the effect of IIV in children with preexisting medical conditions on primary care-diagnosed respiratory illness (RI) episodes during the influenza season.

METHODS

Electronic records of IIV-immunized children who met the criteria for annual IIV immunization according to Dutch guidelines were extracted from a primary care database from 2004 to 2015. For each year, we collected information on IIV immunization status, primary care-attended RI episodes (including influenza-like illness, acute RI, and asthma exacerbation), and potential confounders. Generalized estimating equations were used to model the association between prior IIV and occurrence of at least one RI episode during the influenza season, with "current year immunized but without IIV history" as reference group.

RESULTS

A total of 4,183 children (follow-up duration: 11,493 child-years) were IIV immunized at least once. Adjusted estimates showed lower odds for RI in current year-immunized children with prior IIV compared with those without (odds ratio [OR] = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47-0.78 for "current year immunized and one IIV in previous 2 years"; OR = 0.85; 95% CI, 0.68-1.07 for "current year immunized and ≥2 IIVs in previous 3 years, including prior year").

CONCLUSION

Repeated IIV immunization in children with preexisting medical conditions has no negative impact on, and may even increase, long-term protection against RI episodes diagnosed during the influenza season in primary care.

Optimising pain management in children with acute otitis media through a primary care-based multifaceted educational intervention: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background

Whilst current guidelines highlight the importance of pain management for children with acute otitis media (AOM), there is evidence to suggest that this is not implemented in everyday practice. We have developed a primary care-based multifaceted educational intervention to optimise pain management in children with AOM, and we trial its clinical and cost effectiveness.

Methods

This cluster randomised controlled trial aims to recruit 250 children aged 6 months to 10 years presenting with AOM to general practitioners (GPs) in 30 primary care centres (PCCs) across the Netherlands. GPs in the PCCs allocated to the intervention group receive a blended GP educational programme (online and face-to-face training). The intervention asks GPs to proactively discuss pain management with parents using an information leaflet, and to prescribe paracetamol and ibuprofen according to current guidelines. GPs in both groups complete an online module illustrating various otoscopic images to standardise AOM diagnosis. GPs in the PCCs allocated to the control group do not receive any further training and provide ‘care as usual’.

During the 4-week follow-up, parents complete a symptom diary. The primary outcome is the difference in parent-reported mean earache scores over the first 3 days. Secondary outcomes include both number of days with earache and fever, GP re-consultations for AOM, antibiotic prescriptions, and costs. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat.

Discussion

The optimal use of analgesics through the multifaceted intervention may provide symptom relief and thereby reduce re-consultations and antibiotic prescriptions in children with AOM.

Trial registration

Netherlands Trial Register, NTR4920. Registered on 19 December 2014.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13063-018-2880-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.