d-Mannose for Prevention of Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection Among Women: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Recurrent urinary tract infection (UTI) is a common debilitating condition in women, with limited prophylactic options. d-Mannose has shown promise in trials based in secondary care, but effectiveness in placebo-controlled studies and community settings has not been established.

Objective

To determine whether d-mannose taken for 6 months reduces the proportion of women with recurrent UTI experiencing a medically attended UTI.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This 2-group, double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial took place across 99 primary care centers in the UK. Participants were recruited between March 28, 2019, and January 31, 2020, with 6 months of follow-up. Participants were female, 18 years or older, living in the community, and had evidence in their primary care record of consultations for at least 2 UTIs in the preceding 6 months or 3 UTIs in 12 months. Invitation to participate was made by their primary care center. A total of 7591 participants were approached, 830 responded, and 232 were ineligible or did not proceed to randomization. Statistical analysis was reported in December 2022.

Intervention

Two grams daily of d-mannose powder or matched volume of placebo powder.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome measure was the proportion of women experiencing at least 1 further episode of clinically suspected UTI for which they contacted ambulatory care within 6 months of study entry. Secondary outcomes included symptom duration, antibiotic use, time to next medically attended UTI, number of suspected UTIs, and UTI-related hospital admissions.

Results

Of 598 women eligible (mean [range] age, 58 [18-93] years), 303 were randomized to d-mannose (50.7%) and 295 to placebo (49.3%). Primary outcome data were available for 583 participants (97.5%). The proportion contacting ambulatory care with a clinically suspected UTI was 150 of 294 (51.0%) in the d-mannose group and 161 of 289 (55.7%) in the placebo group (risk difference, -5%; 95% CI, -13% to 3%; P = .26). Estimates were similar in per protocol analyses, imputation analyses, and preplanned subgroups. There were no statistically significant differences in any secondary outcome measures.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this randomized clinical trial, daily d-mannose did not reduce the proportion of women with recurrent UTI in primary care who experienced a subsequent clinically suspected UTI. d-Mannose should not be recommended for prophylaxis in this patient group.

Trial Registration

isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN13283516.

Within-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions in patients with respiratory tract infections: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial stewardship interventions mainly focus on initial antibiotic prescriptions, with few considering within-episode repeat prescriptions. We aimed to describe the magnitude, type and determinants of within-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions in patients presenting to primary care with respiratory tract infections (RTIs).

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study among 530 sampled English general practices within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). All individuals with a primary care RTI consultation for which an antibiotic was prescribed between March 2018 and February 2022. Main outcome measurement was repeat antibiotic prescriptions within 28 days of a RTI visit stratified by age (children vs. adults) and RTI type (lower vs. upper RTI). Multivariable logistic regression and principal components analyses were used to identify risk factors and patient clusters at risk for within-episode repeat prescriptions.

FINDINGS

905,964 RTI episodes with at least one antibiotic prescription were identified. In adults, 19.9% (95% CI 19.3-20.5%) had at least one within-episode repeat prescription for a lower RTI, compared to 10.5% (95% CI 10.3-10.8%) for an upper RTI. In children, this was around 10% irrespective of RTI type. The majority of repeat prescriptions occurred a median of 10 days after the initial prescription and was the same antibiotic class in 48.3% of cases. Frequent RTI related GP visits and prior within-RTI-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions were main factors associated with repeat prescriptions in both adults and children irrespective of RTI type. Young (<2 years) and older (65+) age were associated with repeat prescriptions. Among those aged 2-64 years, allergic rhinitis, COPD and oral corticosteroids were associated with repeat prescriptions.

INTERPRETATIONS

Repeat within-episode antibiotic use accounts for a significant proportion of all antibiotics prescribed for RTIs, with same class antibiotics unlikely to confer clinical benefit and is therefore a prime target for future antimicrobial stewardship interventions.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the accuracy of McIsaac and Centor score in patients presenting to secondary care with pharyngitis

BACKGROUND

Centor and McIsaac scores are clinical prediction rules for diagnosing group A streptococcus (GAS) infection in patients with pharyngitis. Their recommended thresholds vary between guidelines.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the McIsaac and Centor scores to diagnose GAS pharyngitis and evaluate their impact on antibiotic prescribing at each threshold in patients presenting to secondary care.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science were searched from inception to September 2022.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies of patients presenting with acute pharyngitis to emergency or outpatient clinics that estimated the accuracy of McIsaac or Centor scores against throat cultures and/or rapid antigen detection tests (RADT) as reference standards.

TESTS

Centor or McIsaac score.

REFERENCE STANDARD

Throat cultures and/or RADT.

ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS

Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS

The sensitivities and specificities of the McIsaac and Centor scores were pooled at each threshold using bivariate random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies were included (eight McIsaac and six Centor scores). Eight studies had unclear and six had a high risk of bias. The McIsaac score had higher estimated sensitivity and lower specificity relative to Centor scores at equivalent thresholds but with wide and overlapping confidence regions. Using either score as a triage to RADT to decide antibiotic treatment would reduce antibiotic prescription to patients with non-GAS pharyngitis relative to RADT test for everyone, but also reduce antibiotic prescription to patients with GAS.

DISCUSSION

Centor and McIsaac scores are equally ineffective at triaging patients who need antibiotics presenting with pharyngitis at hospitals. At high thresholds, too many true positive cases are missed, whereas at low thresholds, too many false positives are treated, leading to the over prescription of antibiotics. The former may be compensated by adequate safety netting by clinicians, ensuring that patients can seek help if symptoms worsen.

Dipsticks and point-of-care Microscopy to reduce antibiotic use in women with an uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infection (MicUTI): protocol of a randomised controlled pilot trial in primary care

INTRODUCTION

Uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTIs) in women are common infections encountered in primary care. Evidence suggests that rapid point-of-care tests (POCTs) to detect bacteria and erythrocytes in urine at presentation may help primary care clinicians to identify women with uUTIs in whom antibiotics can be withheld without influencing clinical outcomes. This pilot study aims to provide preliminary evidence on whether a POCT informed management of uUTI in women can safely reduce antibiotic use.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an open-label two-arm parallel cluster-randomised controlled pilot trial. 20 general practices affiliated with the Bavarian Practice-Based Research Network (BayFoNet) in Germany were randomly assigned to deliver patient management based on POCTs or to provide usual care. POCTs consist of phase-contrast microscopy to detect bacteria and urinary dipsticks to detect erythrocytes in urine samples. In both arms, urine samples will be obtained at presentation for POCTs (intervention arm only) and microbiological analysis. Women will be followed-up for 28 days from enrolment using self-reported symptom diaries, telephone follow-up and a review of the electronic medical record. Primary outcomes are feasibility of patient enrolment and retention rates per site, which will be summarised by means and SDs, with corresponding confidence and prediction intervals. Secondary outcomes include antibiotic use for UTI at day 28, time to symptom resolution, symptom burden, number of recurrent and upper UTIs and re-consultations and diagnostic accuracy of POCTs versus urine culture as the reference standard. These outcomes will be explored at cluster-levels and individual-levels using descriptive statistics, two-sample hypothesis tests and mixed effects models or generalised estimation equations.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The University of Würzburg institutional review board approved MicUTI on 16 December 2022 (protocol n. 109/22-sc). Study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conferences, reports addressed to clinicians and the local citizen's forums.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05667207.

Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use.

METHODS

A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research.

RESULTS

Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children.

CONCLUSIONS

For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.

Clinical effectiveness of point of care tests for diagnosing urinary tract infection: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Point of care tests (POCTs) have the potential to improve the urinary tract infection (UTI) diagnostic pathway, as they can provide a diagnosis quickly in near-patient settings, and some also identify causative pathogens/antimicrobial sensitivity.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical impact, accuracy, and technical characteristics of POCT for diagnosing UTI.

METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS

Narrative summary and bivariate random effects meta-analyses to estimate summary sensitivity and specificity.

DATA SOURCES

Five electronic databases, two clinical trial registries, study reports and review reference lists, and websites.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials/non-randomized studies and diagnostic test accuracy studies published since 2000.

PARTICIPANTS

People with suspected UTI.

TESTS

Rapid tests (results <40 minutes): Astrego PA-100 system, Lodestar DX, Uriscreen, UTRiPLEX. Culture tests (results <24 hours): Flexicult Human, ID Flexicult, Diaslide, Dipstreak, Chromostreak, Uricult, Uricult Trio, Uricult Plus.

REFERENCE STANDARD

Any.

ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS

Risk of Bias-2, Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-C.

RESULTS

Two randomized controlled trials evaluated Flexicult Human (one against standard care; one against ID Flexicult). No difference was reported in antibiotic use concordant with culture results (OR 0.84 95% CI 0.58-1.20) or appropriate antibiotic prescribing (OR 1.44 95% CI 1.03-1.99). Initial antibiotic prescribing was lower with Flexicult than standard care (OR 0.56 95% CI 0.35-0.88). No difference for other measures of antibiotic use, symptom duration, patient enablement, or resource use. Fifteen studies reported accuracy data. Limited data were available, with most POCT evaluated in single studies or not evaluated at all. Uriscreen (four studies), Uricult Trio (three studies), Flexicult Human (four studies), and ID Flexicult (two studies) had modest sensitivity and specificity. POCTs were easier to use and interpret than standard culture.

CONCLUSIONS

There is currently insufficient evidence to support the use of POCTs in UTI diagnosis. Due to the rapid development of POCT, this review should be updated regularly.

Outcome measures for use in trials of paediatric otorrhoea: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Paediatric otorrhoea (PO) describes a middle ear infection that results in a perforation of the tympanic membrane and ear discharge, in children and young people (CYP). Prolonged infection may be associated with hearing loss and developmental delay. The current management of paediatric otorrhoea is variable, including non-invasive treatments (conservative, oral antibiotics, topical antibiotics) and surgery, reflecting the lack of a sufficiently strong evidence base. Outcome reporting is fundamental to producing reliable and meaningful evidence to inform best practice.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objective: to determine which outcome measures are currently used to evaluate treatment success in studies of non-surgical treatments for paediatric otorrhoea.

SECONDARY OBJECTIVES

to identify outcome measurement instruments used in the literature and assess their applicability for use in clinical trials of PO.

METHODS

This systematic review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023407976). Database searches of EMBASE, MEDLINE and Cochrane was performed on June 6, 2023, covering from Jan 1995 to May 2023. Randomised controlled trials or study protocols involving CYP with PO were included following PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed with Cochrane's tool.

RESULTS

Of the 377 papers identified, six were included in the systematic review. The primary outcome of five of the studies related to otorrhoea cessation; both time to cessation and proportion recovered at various time points were used as measures. Two measurement instruments were identified: Otitis Media-6 Questionnaire and the Institute for Medical Technology Assessment Productivity Cost Questionnaire. Both were shown to be applicable measurement instruments when used in clinical trials of PO.

CONCLUSIONS

To promote homogeneity and facilitate meaningful comparison and combination of studies, we propose that time to cessation of otorrhoea from onset of otorrhoea should be used as the primary outcome in future studies. Further research is needed to establish if this is the most important outcome to children and their caregivers.

Risk factors associated with the development of chronic suppurative otitis media in children: Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) is defined as persistent discharge through a tympanic membrane perforation for greater than 2 weeks. It is associated with a significant disease burden, including hearing loss, and reducing its incidence could significantly improve short- and long-term health. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with the development of CSOM in children.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies set in community, primary and secondary care settings, identified from Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases from 2000 to 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

Children 16 years old and below.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinical diagnosis of CSOM.

RESULTS

In total, 739 papers were screened, with 12 deemed eligible for inclusion in the systematic review, of which, 10 were included in the meta-analysis. Risk factors examined included perinatal, patient, dietary, environmental and parental factors. Meta-analysis results indicate that atopy (RR = 1.18, 95% CI [1.01-1.37], p = .04, 2 studies); and birth weight <2500 g (RR = 1.79 [1.27-2.50], p < .01, 2 studies) are associated with an increased risk of CSOM development. Factors not associated were male sex (RR = 0.96 [0.82-1.13], p = .62, 8 studies); exposure to passive smoking (RR = 1.27 [0.81-2.01], p = .30, 3 studies); and parental history of otitis media (RR = 1.14 [0.59-2.20], p = .69, 2 studies).

CONCLUSION

Optimal management of risk factors associated with CSOM development will help reduce the burden of disease and prevent disease progression or recurrence. The current quality of evidence in the literature is variable and heterogeneous. Future studies should aim to use standardised classification systems to define risk factors to allow meta-analysis.

A multifaceted intervention to reduce antibiotic prescribing among CHIldren with acute COugh and respiratory tract infection: the CHICO cluster RCT

Background

Clinical uncertainty in primary care regarding the prognosis of children with respiratory tract infections contributes to the unnecessary use of antibiotics. Improved identification of children at low risk of future hospitalisation might reduce clinical uncertainty. A National Institute for Health and Care Research-funded 5-year programme (RP-PG-0608-10018) was used to develop and feasibility test an intervention.

Objectives

The aim of the children with acute cough randomised controlled trial was to reduce antibiotic prescribing among children presenting with acute cough and respiratory tract infection without increasing hospital admission.

Design

An efficient, pragmatic open-label, two-arm trial (with embedded qualitative and health economic analyses) using practice-level randomisation using routinely collected data as the primary outcome.

Setting

General practitioner practices in England.

Participants

General practitioner practices using the Egton Medical Information Systems® patient-record system for children aged 0-9 years presenting with a cough or upper respiratory tract infection. Recruited by Clinical Research Networks and Clinical Commissioning Groups.

Intervention

Comprised: (1) elicitation of parental concerns during consultation; (2) a clinician-focused prognostic algorithm to identify children with acute cough and respiratory tract infection at low, average or elevated risk of hospitalisation in the next 30 days accompanied by prescribing guidance, (3) provision of a printout for carers including safety-netting advice.

Main outcome measures

Co-primaries using the practice list-size for children aged 0-9 years as the denominator: rate of dispensed amoxicillin and macrolide items at each practice (superiority comparison) from NHS Business Services Authority ePACT2 and rate of hospital admission for respiratory tract infection (non-inferiority comparison) from Clinical Commissioning Groups, both routinely collected over 12 months.

Results

Of the 310 practices required, 294 (95%) were recruited (144 intervention and 150 controls) with 336,496 registered 0-9-year-olds (5% of all 0-9-year-old children in England) from 47 Clinical Commissioning Groups. Included practices were slightly larger than those not included, had slightly lower baseline dispensing rates and were located in more deprived areas (reflecting the distribution for practice postcodes nationally). Twelve practices (4%) subsequently withdrew (six related to the pandemic). The median number of times the intervention was used was 70 per practice (by a median of 9 clinicians) over 12 months. There was no evidence that the antibiotic dispensing rate in the intervention practices [0.155 (95% confidence interval 0.135 to 0.179)] differed to controls [0.154 (95% confidence interval 0.130 to 0.182), relative risk= 1.011 (95% confidence interval 0.992 to 1.029); p = 0.253]. There was, overall, a reduction in dispensing levels and intervention usage during the pandemic. The rate of hospitalisation for respiratory tract infection in the intervention practices [0.019 (95% confidence interval 0.014 to 0.026)] compared to the controls [0.021 (95% confidence interval 0.014 to 0.029)] was non-inferior [relative risk = 0.952 (95% confidence interval 0.905 to 1.003)]. The qualitative evaluation found the clinicians liked the intervention, used it as a supportive aid, especially with borderline cases but that it, did not always integrate well within the consultation flow and was used less over time. The economic evaluation found no evidence of a difference in mean National Health Service costs between arms; mean difference -£1999 (95% confidence interval -£6627 to 2630).

Conclusions

The intervention was feasible and subjectively useful to practitioners, with no evidence of harm in terms of hospitalisations, but did not impact on antibiotic prescribing rates.

Future work and limitations

Although the intervention does not appear to change prescribing behaviour, elements of the approach may be used in the design of future interventions.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN11405239 (date assigned 20 April 2018) at www.controlled-trials.com (accessed 5 September 2022). Version 4.0 of the protocol is available at: https://www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/ (accessed 5 September 2022).

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (NIHR award ref: 16/31/98) programme and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 32. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Predicting illness progression for children with lower respiratory infections in primary care: a prospective cohort and observational study

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics are commonly prescribed for children with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), fuelling antibiotic resistance, and there are few prognostic tools available to inform management.

AIM

To externally validate an existing prognostic model (STARWAVe) to identify children at low risk of illness progression, and if model performance was limited to develop a new internally validated prognostic model.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Prospective cohort study with a nested trial in a primary care setting.

METHOD

Children aged 6 months to 12 years presenting with uncomplicated LRTI were included in the cohort. Children were randomised to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg per day for 7 days or placebo, or if not randomised they participated in a parallel observational study to maximise generalisability. Baseline clinical data were used to predict adverse outcome (illness progression requiring hospital assessment).

RESULTS

A total of 758 children participated (n = 432 trial, n = 326 observational). For predicting illness progression the STARWAVe prognostic model had moderate performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.50 to 0.77), but a new, internally validated model (seven items: baseline severity; respiratory rate; duration of prior illness; oxygen saturation; sputum or a rattly chest; passing urine less often; and diarrhoea) had good discrimination (bootstrapped AUROC 0.83, 95% CI = 0.74 to 0.92) and calibration. A three-item model (respiratory rate; oxygen saturation; and sputum or a rattly chest) also performed well (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.91), as did a score (ranging from 19 to 102) derived from coefficients of the model (AUROC 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.88): a score of <70 classified 89% (n = 600/674) of children having a low risk (<5%) of progression of illness.

CONCLUSION

A simple three-item prognostic score could be useful as a tool to identify children with LRTI who are at low risk of an adverse outcome and to guide clinical management.

Using microbiological data to improve the use of antibiotics for respiratory tract infections: A protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Resistance to antibiotics is rising and threatens future antibiotic effectiveness. 'Antibiotic targeting' ensures patients who may benefit from antibiotics receive them, while being safely withheld from those who may not. Point-of-care tests may assist with antibiotic targeting by allowing primary care clinicians to establish if symptomatic patients have a viral, bacterial, combined, or no infection. However, because organisms can be harmlessly carried, it is important to know if the presence of the virus/bacteria is related to the illness for which the patient is being assessed. One way to do this is to look for associations with more severe/prolonged symptoms and test results. Previous research to answer this question for acute respiratory tract infections has given conflicting results with studies has not having enough participants to provide statistical confidence.

AIM

To undertake a synthesis of IPD from both randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational cohort studies of respiratory tract infections (RTI) in order to investigate the prognostic value of microbiological data in addition to, or instead of, clinical symptoms and signs.

METHODS

A systematic search of Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Medline and Ovid Embase will be carried out for studies of acute respiratory infection in primary care settings. The outcomes of interest are duration of disease, severity of disease, repeated consultation with new/worsening illness and complications requiring hospitalisation. Authors of eligible studies will be contacted to provide anonymised individual participant data. The data will be harmonised and aggregated. Multilevel regression analysis will be conducted to determine key outcome measures for different potential pathogens and whether these offer any additional information on prognosis beyond clinical symptoms and signs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Registration number: CRD42023376769.

Comparison of lotions, creams, gels and ointments for the treatment of childhood eczema: the BEE RCT

Background

Emollients are recommended for children with eczema (atopic eczema/dermatitis). A lack of head-to-head comparisons of the effectiveness and acceptability of the different types of emollients has resulted in a 'trial and error' approach to prescribing.

Objective

To compare the effectiveness and acceptability of four commonly used types of emollients for the treatment of childhood eczema.

Design

Four group, parallel, individually randomised, superiority randomised clinical trials with a nested qualitative study, completed in 2021. A purposeful sample of parents/children was interviewed at ≈ 4 and ≈ 16 weeks.

Setting

Primary care (78 general practitioner surgeries) in England.

Participants

Children aged between 6 months and 12 years with eczema, of at least mild severity, and with no known sensitivity to the study emollients or their constituents.

Interventions

Study emollients sharing the same characteristics in the four types of lotion, cream, gel or ointment, alongside usual care, and allocated using a web-based randomisation system. Participants were unmasked and the researcher assessing the Eczema Area Severity Index scores was masked.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome was Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure scores over 16 weeks. The secondary outcomes were Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure scores over 52 weeks, Eczema Area Severity Index score at 16 weeks, quality of life (Atopic Dermatitis Quality of Life, Child Health Utility-9 Dimensions and EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, scores), Dermatitis Family Impact and satisfaction levels at 16 weeks.

Results

A total of 550 children were randomised to receive lotion (analysed for primary outcome 131/allocated 137), cream (137/140), gel (130/135) or ointment (126/138). At baseline, 86.0% of participants were white and 46.4% were female. The median (interquartile range) age was 4 (2-8) years and the median Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure score was 9.3 (SD 5.5). There was no evidence of a difference in mean Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure scores over the first 16 weeks between emollient types (global p = 0.765): adjusted Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure pairwise differences - cream-lotion 0.42 (95% confidence interval -0.48 to 1.32), gel-lotion 0.17 (95% confidence interval -0.75 to 1.09), ointment-lotion -0.01 (95% confidence interval -0.93 to 0.91), gel-cream -0.25 (95% confidence interval -1.15 to 0.65), ointment-cream -0.43 (95% confidence interval -1.34 to 0.48) and ointment-gel -0.18 (95% confidence interval -1.11 to 0.75). There was no effect modification by parent expectation, age, disease severity or the application of UK diagnostic criteria, and no differences between groups in any of the secondary outcomes. Median weekly use of allocated emollient, non-allocated emollient and topical corticosteroids was similar across groups. Overall satisfaction was highest for lotions and gels. There was no difference in the number of adverse reactions and there were no significant adverse events. In the nested qualitative study (n = 44 parents, n = 25 children), opinions about the acceptability of creams and ointments varied most, yet problems with all types were reported. Effectiveness may be favoured over acceptability. Parents preferred pumps and bottles over tubs and reported improved knowledge about, and use of, emollients as a result of taking part in the trial.

Limitations

Parents and clinicians were unmasked to allocation. The findings may not apply to non-study emollients of the same type or to children from more ethnically diverse backgrounds.

Conclusions

The four emollient types were equally effective. Satisfaction with the same emollient types varies, with different parents/children favouring different ones. Users need to be able to choose from a range of emollient types to find one that suits them.

Future work

Future work could focus on how best to support shared decision-making of different emollient types and evaluations of other paraffin-based, non-paraffin and 'novel' emollients.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN84540529 and EudraCT 2017-000688-34.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (HTA 15/130/07) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Protocol for the Paediatric Otorrhoea Study (POSt): a multi-methods study to understand the burden of paediatric otorrhoea in the UK

INTRODUCTION

Paediatric otorrhoea (PO) refers to the leakage of fluid through a perforation in the ear drum, resulting from an infection of the middle ear of a child or young person (CYP). PO frequently results in hearing loss which may lead to developmental delay, restricted communication and reduced educational attainment.Epidemiological information for PO is largely derived from low-income countries. The aim of this study will be to establish the incidence of PO within the UK and to understand the impact of PO on CYP and their families' everyday lives. It will build the foundations for a randomised controlled trial investigating the best antibiotic treatment for PO.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study will consist of two work packages. (1) Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), January 2005 to July 2021, will be used to determine the incidence of patient presentations with PO to primary care in the UK. It will also explore the current antimicrobial prescribing practice for PO in primary care. (2) Thirty semi-structured interviews will be conducted from 13 July to 31 October 2023 with CYP and their parents/carers to help identify the impact of PO on everyday life, the patient journey and how service users define treatment success. Three medical professional focus groups will be used to understand the current management practice, how treatment success is measured and acceptability to randomise patients. Thematic analysis will be used.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Health Research Authority, The Health and Social Care Research Ethics Committee (23/NI/0082) and the CPRD's research data governance panel (22_002508) reviewed this study. Results will be disseminated at medical conferences, in peer-reviewed journals and via social media. The study will cocreate a webpage on healthtalk.org, with the Dipex Charity, about PO to ensure members of the public can learn more about the condition.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN46071200.

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, alone or combined, for pain relief in acute otitis media in children

BACKGROUND

Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common childhood infectious diseases. Pain is the key symptom of AOM and central to children's and parents' experience of the illness. Because antibiotics provide only marginal benefits, analgesic treatment including paracetamol (acetaminophen) and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is regarded as the cornerstone of AOM management. This is an update of a review first published in 2016.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary objective was to assess the effectiveness of paracetamol (acetaminophen) or NSAIDs, alone or combined, compared with placebo or no treatment in relieving pain in children with AOM. Our secondary objective was to assess the effectiveness of NSAIDs as compared with paracetamol in children with AOM.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Issue 5, April 2023; MEDLINE (Ovid, from 1946 to May 2023), Embase (from 1947 to May 2023), CINAHL (from 1981 to May 2023), LILACS (from 1982 to May 2023), and Web of Science Core Collection (from 1955 to May 2023). We searched the WHO ICTRP and ClinicalTrials.gov for completed and ongoing trials (23 May 2023).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials comparing the effectiveness of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, for pain relief in non-hospitalised children aged six months to 16 years with AOM. We also included trials of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, for children with fever or upper respiratory tract infections if we were able to extract subgroup data on pain relief in children with AOM either directly or after obtaining additional data from study authors. We extracted and summarised data for the following comparisons: paracetamol versus placebo, NSAIDs versus placebo, NSAIDs versus paracetamol, and NSAIDs plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We rated the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome of interest using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included four trials (411 children) which were assessed at low to high risk of bias. Paracetamol versus placebo Data from one trial (148 children) informed this comparison. Paracetamol may be more effective than placebo in relieving pain at 48 hours (proportion of children with pain 10% versus 25%, risk ratio (RR) 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 0.85; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 7; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effects of paracetamol on fever at 48 hours (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.07 to 16.12; very low-certainty evidence) and adverse events (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.21 to 4.93; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available for our other outcomes of interest. NSAIDs versus placebo Data from one trial (146 children) informed this comparison. Ibuprofen may be more effective than placebo in relieving pain at 48 hours (proportion of children with pain 7% versus 25%, RR 0.28, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.70; NNTB 6; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen on fever at 48 hours (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.07 to 16.57; very low-certainty evidence) and adverse events (RR 1.76, 95% CI 0.44 to 7.10; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available for our other outcomes of interest. NSAIDs versus paracetamol Data from four trials (411 children) informed this comparison. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol in relieving ear pain at 24 hours (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.18; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.54; 3 RCTs, 183 children; low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.17 to 3.23; 2 RCTs, 38 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on mean pain score at 24 hours (0.29 lower, 95% CI 0.79 lower to 0.20 higher; 3 RCTs, 111 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (0.25 lower, 95% CI 0.66 lower to 0.16 higher; 3 RCTs, 108 children; very low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (0.30 higher, 95% CI 1.78 lower to 2.38 higher; 2 RCTs, 31 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol in resolving fever at 24 hours (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.24 to 2.00; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.31 to 4.44; 3 RCTs, 182 children; low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (RR 2.75, 95% CI 0.12 to 60.70; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on adverse events (RR 1.71, 95% CI 0.43 to 6.90; 3 RCTs, 281 children; very low-certainty evidence); reconsultations (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.40; 1 RCT, 53 children; very low-certainty evidence); and delayed antibiotic prescriptions (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.74 to 2.35; 1 RCT, 53 children; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available on time to resolution of pain. NSAIDs plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone Data on the effectiveness of ibuprofen plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone came from two trials that provided crude subgroup data for 71 children with AOM. The small sample provided imprecise effect estimates, therefore we were unable to draw any firm conclusions (very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite explicit guideline recommendations on the use of analgesics in children with AOM, the current evidence on the effectiveness of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, in children with AOM is limited. Paracetamol and ibuprofen as monotherapies may be more effective than placebo in relieving short-term ear pain in children with AOM. The evidence is very uncertain for the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on relieving short-term ear pain in children with AOM, as well as for the effectiveness of ibuprofen plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone, thereby preventing any firm conclusions. Further research is needed to provide insights into the role of ibuprofen as adjunct to paracetamol, and other analgesics such as anaesthetic eardrops, for children with AOM.

Oral and gut microbial biomarkers of susceptibility to respiratory tract infection in adults: A feasibility study

We conducted a feasibility cohort study which aimed to recruit and retain adults from the community to collect saliva (oral) and stool (gut) samples at three time points, at the start of the study (baseline), during a respiratory tract infection (RTI) and post-RTI. Community RTIs place a huge burden on health care services, and a non-invasive microbial diagnostic tool to predict the most vulnerable to respiratory infection would be ideal. To this aim, we analysed oral-gut baseline samples comparing those who reported RTI symptoms to those who remained healthy throughout the study for microbial biomarkers of respiratory susceptibility. Amplicon sequence variants (ASV) were identified by 16S sequence profiling to reveal oral-gut microbes. Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was applied to target common respiratory microbes. Two general practices were recruited, and the participant recruitment rate was 1.3%. A total of 40 adult participants were retained, of which 19 acquired an RTI whereas 21 remained healthy. In healthy baseline oral and gut samples, ASVs from participants with RTI symptoms compared to those who remained healthy were similar with a high relative abundance of Streptococcus sp., and Blautia sp., respectively. Linear discriminant analysis effect size (LEfSe) revealed baseline oral microbes differed, indicating participants who suffered RTI symptoms had enhanced Streptococcus sobrinus and Megamonas sp., and depletion of Lactobacillus salivarius, Synergistetes, Verrucomicrobia and Dethiosulfovibrio. Furthermore, a random forest model ranked Streptococcus (4.13) as the highest mean decrease in accuracy (MDA) and RT-PCR showed a higher level of carriage of coagulase-negative Staphylococcus. Baseline core gut microbes were similar in both participant groups whereas LEfSe analysis revealed enhanced Veillonella, Rikenellaceae, Enhydobacteria, Eggerthella and Xanthomonsdales and depleted Desulfobulbus and Coprobacillus. Sutterella (4.73) had a high MDA value. Overall, we demonstrated the feasibility of recruiting and retaining adult participants from the community to provide multiple biological samples for microbial profiling. Our analyses identified potential oral-gut microbial biomarkers of respiratory infection susceptibility in otherwise healthy participants.

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care: ARTIC-PC RCT

Background

Antimicrobial resistance is a global health threat. Antibiotics are commonly prescribed for children with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections, but there is little randomised evidence to support the effectiveness of antibiotics in treating these infections, either overall or relating to key clinical subgroups in which antibiotic prescribing is common (chest signs; fever; physician rating of unwell; sputum/rattly chest; shortness of breath).

Objectives

To estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of amoxicillin for uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections in children both overall and in clinical subgroups.

Design

Placebo-controlled trial with qualitative, observational and cost-effectiveness studies.

Setting

UK general practices.

Participants

Children aged 1-12 years with acute uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections.

Outcomes

The primary outcome was the duration in days of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse (measured using a validated diary). Secondary outcomes were symptom severity on days 2-4 (0 = no problem to 6 = as bad as it could be); symptom duration until very little/no problem; reconsultations for new or worsening symptoms; complications; side effects; and resource use.

Methods

Children were randomised to receive 50 mg/kg/day of oral amoxicillin in divided doses for 7 days, or placebo using pre-prepared packs, using computer-generated random numbers by an independent statistician. Children who were not randomised could participate in a parallel observational study. Semistructured telephone interviews explored the views of 16 parents and 14 clinicians, and the data were analysed using thematic analysis. Throat swabs were analysed using multiplex polymerase chain reaction.

Results

A total of 432 children were randomised (antibiotics, n = 221; placebo, n = 211). The primary analysis imputed missing data for 115 children. The duration of moderately bad symptoms was similar in the antibiotic and placebo groups overall (median of 5 and 6 days, respectively; hazard ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.42), with similar results for subgroups, and when including antibiotic prescription data from the 326 children in the observational study. Reconsultations for new or worsening symptoms (29.7% and 38.2%, respectively; risk ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 1.05), illness progression requiring hospital assessment or admission (2.4% vs. 2.0%) and side effects (38% vs. 34%) were similar in the two groups. Complete-case (n = 317) and per-protocol (n = 185) analyses were similar, and the presence of bacteria did not mediate antibiotic effectiveness. NHS costs per child were slightly higher (antibiotics, £29; placebo, £26), with no difference in non-NHS costs (antibiotics, £33; placebo, £33). A model predicting complications (with seven variables: baseline severity, difference in respiratory rate from normal for age, duration of prior illness, oxygen saturation, sputum/rattly chest, passing urine less often, and diarrhoea) had good discrimination (bootstrapped area under the receiver operator curve 0.83) and calibration. Parents found it difficult to interpret symptoms and signs, used the sounds of the child's cough to judge the severity of illness, and commonly consulted to receive a clinical examination and reassurance. Parents acknowledged that antibiotics should be used only when 'necessary', and clinicians noted a reduction in parents' expectations for antibiotics.

Limitations

The study was underpowered to detect small benefits in key subgroups.

Conclusion

Amoxicillin for uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections in children is unlikely to be clinically effective or to reduce health or societal costs. Parents need better access to information, as well as clear communication about the self-management of their child's illness and safety-netting.

Future work

The data can be incorporated in the Cochrane review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN79914298.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 9. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Comparing GPs' antibiotic prescribing decisions to a clinical prediction rule: an online vignette study

BACKGROUND

The 'STARWAVe' clinical prediction rule (CPR) uses seven factors to guide risk assessment and antibiotic prescribing in children with cough (Short illness duration, Temperature, Age, Recession, Wheeze, Asthma, Vomiting).

AIM

To assess the influence of STARWAVe factors on GPs' unaided risk assessments and prescribing decisions.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Clinical vignettes administered to 188 UK GPs online.

METHOD

GPs were randomly assigned to view 32 (out of a possible 64) vignettes online depicting children with cough. The vignettes comprised the seven STARWAVe factors, which were varied systematically. For each vignette, GPs assessed risk of deterioration in one of two ways (sliding-scale versus risk-category selection) and indicated whether they would prescribe antibiotics. Finally, GPs saw an additional vignette, suggesting that the parent was concerned. Mixed-effects regressions were used to measure the influence of STARWAVe factors, risk-elicitation method, and parental concern on GPs' assessments and decisions.

RESULTS

Six STARWAVe risk factors correctly increased GPs' risk assessments (bssliding-scale≥0.66, odds ratios [ORs]category-selection≥1.75, Ps≤0.001), whereas one incorrectly reduced them (short illness duration: b sliding-scale -0.30, ORcategory-selection 0.80, P≤0.039). Conversely, one STARWAVe factor increased prescribing odds (temperature: OR 5.22, P<0.001), whereas the rest either reduced them (short illness duration, age, and recession: ORs≤0.70, Ps<0.001) or had no significant impact (wheeze, asthma, and vomiting: Ps≥0.065). Parental concern increased risk assessments (b sliding-scale 1.29, ORcategory-selection 2.82, P≤0.003) but not prescribing odds (P = 0.378).

CONCLUSION

GPs use some, but not all, STARWAVe factors when making unaided risk assessments and prescribing decisions. Such discrepancies must be considered when introducing CPRs to clinical practice.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and risk of COVID-19 infection: survey of U.K. public from November 2020 - May 2021

INTRODUCTION

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as handwashing, social distancing and face mask wearing, have been widely promoted to reduce the spread of COVID-19. This study aimed to explore the relationship between self-reported use of NPIs and COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

We conducted an online questionnaire study recruiting members of the UK public from November 2020 to May 2021. The association between self-reported COVID-19 illness and reported use of NPIs was explored using logistic regression and controlling for participant characteristics, month of questionnaire completion, and vaccine status. Participants who had been exposed to COVID-19 in their household in the previous 2 weeks were excluded.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven thousand seven hundred fifty-eight participants were included and 2,814 (10.1%) reported having a COVID-19 infection. The odds of COVID-19 infection were reduced with use of a face covering in unadjusted (OR 0.17 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.20) and adjusted (aOR 0.19, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.23) analyses. Social distancing (OR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31; aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.43) and handwashing when arriving home (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.73; aOR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.83) also reduced the odds of COVID-19. Being in crowded places of 10-100 people (OR 1.89, 95% CI: 1.70 to 2.11; aOR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.42 to 1.85) and > 100 people (OR 2.33, 95% CI: 2.11 to 2.58; aOR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.53 to 1.97) were both associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infection. Handwashing before eating, avoiding touching the face, and cleaning things with virus on were all associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infections.

CONCLUSIONS

This large observational study found evidence for strong protective effects for individuals from use of face coverings, social distancing (including avoiding crowded places) and handwashing on arriving home on developing COVID-19 infection. We also found evidence for an increased risk associated with other behaviours, possibly from recall bias.

Effectiveness of analgesic ear drops as add-on treatment to oral analgesics in children with acute otitis media: study protocol of the OPTIMA pragmatic randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Ear pain is the most prominent symptom of childhood acute otitis media (AOM). To control the pain and reduce reliance on antibiotics, evidence of effectiveness for alternative interventions is urgently needed. This trial aims to investigate whether analgesic ear drops added to usual care provide superior ear pain relief over usual care alone in children presenting to primary care with AOM.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a pragmatic, two-arm, individually randomised, open, superiority trial with cost-effectiveness analysis and nested mixed-methods process evaluation in general practices in the Netherlands. We aim to recruit 300 children aged 1-6 years with a general practitioner (GP) diagnosis of AOM and ear pain. Children will be randomly allocated (ratio 1:1) to either (1) lidocaine hydrochloride 5 mg/g ear drops (Otalgan) one to two drops up to six times daily for a maximum of 7 days in addition to usual care (oral analgesics, with/without antibiotics); or (2) usual care. Parents will complete a symptom diary for 4 weeks as well as generic and disease-specific quality of life questionnaires at baseline and 4 weeks. The primary outcome is the parent-reported ear pain score (0-10) over the first 3 days. Secondary outcomes include proportion of children consuming antibiotics, oral analgesic use and overall symptom burden in the first 7 days; number of days with ear pain, number of GP reconsultations and subsequent antibiotic prescribing, adverse events, complications of AOM and cost-effectiveness during 4-week follow-up; generic and disease-specific quality of life at 4 weeks; parents' and GPs' views and experiences with treatment acceptability, usability and satisfaction.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Medical Research Ethics Committee Utrecht, the Netherlands, has approved the protocol (21-447/G-D). All parents/guardians of participants will provide written informed consent. Study results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed medical journals and presented at relevant (inter)national scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The Netherlands Trial Register: NL9500; date of registration: 28 May 2021. At the time of publication of the study protocol paper, we were unable to make any amendments to the trial registration record in the Netherlands Trial Register. The addition of a data sharing plan was required to adhere to the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors guidelines. The trial was therefore reregistered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05651633; date of registration: 15 December 2022). This second registration is for modification purposes only and the Netherlands Trial Register record (NL9500) should be regarded as the primary trial registration.

Impact of remote vital sign monitoring on health outcomes in acute respiratory infection and exacerbation of chronic respiratory conditions: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Our aim was to investigate the effectiveness of virtual wards on health outcomes in patients with acute respiratory infection.

Methods

We searched four electronic databases from January 2000–March 2021 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs). We included studies in people with acute respiratory illness or an acute exacerbation of a chronic respiratory illness, where a patient or carer measured vital signs (oximetry, blood pressure, pulse) for initial diagnosis and/or asynchronous monitoring, in a person living in private housing or a care home. We performed random effects meta-analysis for mortality.

Results

We reviewed 5834 abstracts, 107 full texts, and judged nine RCTs relevant for inclusion in which sample sizes ranged from 37–389 (total=1627), mean ages between 61 and 77 years, and five judged to be at low risk of bias. Five RCTs had fewer hospital admissions in the intervention (monitoring) group, out of which two studies reported a significant difference. Two studies reported more admissions in the intervention group, with one reporting a significant difference. We were unable to perform a meta-analysis on healthcare utilisation and hospitalisation data due to lack of outcome definition in the primary studies and variable outcome measurements. We judged two studies to be at low risk of bias. The pooled summary risk ratio for mortality was 0.90 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.48).

Conclusion

The limited literature for remote monitoring of vital signs in acute respiratory illness provides weak evidence that these interventions have a variable impact on hospitalisations and healthcare utilisation, and may reduce mortality.

Self-sampling to identify pathogens and inflammatory markers in patients with acute sore throat: Feasibility study

Introduction

Sore throat is a common reason for overuse of antibiotics. The value of inflammatory or biomarkers in throat swab or saliva samples in predicting benefit from antibiotics is unknown.

Methods

We used the ‘person-based approach’ to develop an online tool to support self-swabbing and recruited adults and children with sore throats through participating general practices and social media. Participants took bacterial and viral swabs and a saliva sponge swab and passive drool sample. Bacterial swabs were cultured for streptococcus (Group A, B, C, F and G). The viral swab and saliva samples were tested using a routine respiratory panel PCR and Covid-19 PCR testing. We used remaining viral swab and saliva sample volume for biomarker analysis using a panel of 13 biomarkers.

Results

We recruited 11 asymptomatic participants and 45 symptomatic participants. From 45 symptomatic participants, bacterial throat swab, viral throat swab, saliva sponge and saliva drool samples were returned by 41/45 (91.1%), 43/45 (95.6%), 43/45 (95.6%) and 43/45 (95.6%) participants respectively. Three saliva sponge and 6 saliva drool samples were of insufficient quantity. Two adult participants had positive bacterial swabs. Six participants had a virus detected from at least one sample (swab or saliva). All of the biomarkers assessed were detectable from all samples where there was sufficient volume for testing. For most biomarkers we found higher concentrations in the saliva samples. Due to low numbers, we were not able to compare biomarker concentrations in those who did and did not have a bacterial pathogen detected. We found no evidence of a difference between biomarker concentrations between the symptomatic and asymptomatic participants but the distributions were wide.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated that it is feasible for patients with sore throat to self-swab and provide saliva samples for pathogen and biomarker analysis. Typical bacterial and viral pathogens were detected but at low prevalence rates. Further work is needed to determine if measuring biomarkers using oropharyngeal samples can help to differentiate between viral and bacterial pathogens in patients classified as medium or high risk using clinical scores, in order to better guide antibiotic prescribing and reduce inappropriate prescriptions.

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling

BACKGROUND

Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disorder triggered by ingesting gluten. It affects approximately 1% of the UK population, but only one in three people is thought to have a diagnosis. Untreated coeliac disease may lead to malnutrition, anaemia, osteoporosis and lymphoma.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to define at-risk groups and determine the cost-effectiveness of active case-finding strategies in primary care.

DESIGN

(1) Systematic review of the accuracy of potential diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease. (2) Routine data analysis to develop prediction models for identification of people who may benefit from testing for coeliac disease. (3) Systematic review of the accuracy of diagnostic tests for coeliac disease. (4) Systematic review of the accuracy of genetic tests for coeliac disease (literature search conducted in April 2021). (5) Online survey to identify diagnostic thresholds for testing, starting treatment and referral for biopsy. (6) Economic modelling to identify the cost-effectiveness of different active case-finding strategies, informed by the findings from previous objectives.

DATA SOURCES

For the first systematic review, the following databases were searched from 1997 to April 2021: MEDLINE® (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA), Embase® (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Cochrane Library, Web of Science™ (Clarivate™, Philadelphia, PA, USA), the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform ( WHO ICTRP ) and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For the second systematic review, the following databases were searched from January 1990 to August 2020: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews ( KSR ) Evidence, WHO ICTRP and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For prediction model development, Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and a subcohort of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used; for estimates for the economic models, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was used.

REVIEW METHODS

For review 1, cohort and case-control studies reporting on a diagnostic indicator in a population with and a population without coeliac disease were eligible. For review 2, diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting with coeliac disease symptoms who were tested with serological tests for coeliac disease and underwent a duodenal biopsy as reference standard were eligible. In both reviews, risk of bias was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were fitted, in which binomial likelihoods for the numbers of true positives and true negatives were assumed.

RESULTS

People with dermatitis herpetiformis, a family history of coeliac disease, migraine, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis or chronic liver disease are 1.5-2 times more likely than the general population to have coeliac disease; individual gastrointestinal symptoms were not useful for identifying coeliac disease. For children, women and men, prediction models included 24, 24 and 21 indicators of coeliac disease, respectively. The models showed good discrimination between patients with and patients without coeliac disease, but performed less well when externally validated. Serological tests were found to have good diagnostic accuracy for coeliac disease. Immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase had the highest sensitivity and endomysial antibody the highest specificity. There was little improvement when tests were used in combination. Survey respondents (n = 472) wanted to be 66% certain of the diagnosis from a blood test before starting a gluten-free diet if symptomatic, and 90% certain if asymptomatic. Cost-effectiveness analyses found that, among adults, and using serological testing alone, immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase was most cost-effective at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening). Strategies using immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody plus human leucocyte antigen or human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability had similar cost-effectiveness results, which were also similar to the cost-effectiveness results of immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase at a 1% pre-test probability. The most practical alternative for implementation within the NHS is likely to be a combination of human leucocyte antigen and immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing among those with a pre-test probability above 1.5%. Among children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase, but there was uncertainty around the most cost-effective pre-test probability. There was substantial uncertainty in economic model results, which means that there would be great value in conducting further research.

LIMITATIONS

The interpretation of meta-analyses was limited by the substantial heterogeneity between the included studies, and most included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias. The main limitations of the prediction models were that we were restricted to diagnostic indicators that were recorded by general practitioners and that, because coeliac disease is underdiagnosed, it is also under-reported in health-care data. The cost-effectiveness model is a simplification of coeliac disease and modelled an average cohort rather than individuals. Evidence was weak on the probability of routine coeliac disease diagnosis, the accuracy of serological and genetic tests and the utility of a gluten-free diet.

CONCLUSIONS

Population screening with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase (1% pre-test probability) and of immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody followed by human leucocyte antigen testing or human leucocyte antigen testing followed by immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability appear to have similar cost-effectiveness results. As decisions to implement population screening cannot be made based on our economic analysis alone, and given the practical challenges of identifying patients with higher pre-test probabilities, we recommend that human leucocyte antigen combined with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing should be considered for adults with at least a 1.5% pre-test probability of coeliac disease, equivalent to having at least one predictor. A more targeted strategy of 10% pre-test probability is recommended for children (e.g. children with anaemia).

FUTURE WORK

Future work should consider whether or not population-based screening for coeliac disease could meet the UK National Screening Committee criteria and whether or not it necessitates a long-term randomised controlled trial of screening strategies. Large prospective cohort studies in which all participants receive accurate tests for coeliac disease are needed.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019115506 and CRD42020170766.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care (ARTIC-PC): the predictive value of molecular testing

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess whether the presence of bacteria or viruses in the upper airway of children presenting with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) predicts the benefit of antibiotics.

METHODS

Children between 6 months and 12 years presenting to UK general practices with an acute LRTI were randomized to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg/d for 7 days or placebo. Children not randomized (ineligible or clinician/parental choice) could participate in a parallel observational study. The primary outcome was the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse. Throat swabs were taken and analyzed for the presence of bacteria and viruses by multiplex PCR.

RESULTS

Swab results were available for most participants in the trial (306 of 432; 71%) and in the observational (182 of 326; 59%) studies. Bacterial pathogens potentially sensitive to amoxicillin (Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Streptococcus pneumoniae) were detected among 51% of the trial placebo group and 49% of the trial antibiotic group. The median difference in the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse between antibiotic and placebo was similar when potentially antibiotic-susceptible bacteria were present (median: -1 day; 99% CI, -12.3 to 10.3) or not present (median: -1 day; 99% CI, -4.5 to 2.5). Furthermore, bacterial genome copy number did not predict benefit. There were similar findings for all secondary outcomes and when including the data from the observational study.

DISCUSSION

There was no clear evidence that antibiotics improved clinical outcomes conditional on the presence or concentration of bacteria or viruses in the upper airway. Before deploying microbiologic point-of-care tests for children with uncomplicated LRTI in primary care, rigorous validating trials are needed.

Effectiveness and safety of lotion, cream, gel, and ointment emollients for childhood eczema: a pragmatic, randomised, phase 4, superiority trial

BACKGROUND

To our knowledge, there are no trials comparing emollients commonly used for childhood eczema. We aimed to compare the clinical effectiveness and safety of the four main emollient types: lotions, creams, gels, and ointments.

METHODS

We did a pragmatic, individually randomised, parallel group, phase 4 superiority trial in 77 general practice surgeries in England. Children aged between 6 months and 12 years with eczema (Patient Orientated Eczema Measure [POEM] score >2) were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1; stratified by centre and minimised by baseline POEM score and age, using a web-based system) to lotions, creams, gels, or ointments. Clinicians and parents were unmasked. The initial emollient prescription was for 500 g or 500 mL, to be applied twice daily and as required. Subsequent prescriptions were determined by the family. The primary outcome was parent-reported eczema severity over 16 weeks (weekly POEM), with analysis as randomly assigned regardless of adherence, adjusting for baseline and stratification variables. Safety was assessed in all randomly assigned participants. This trial was registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN84540529.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 19, 2018, and Oct 31, 2019, 12 417 children were assessed for eligibility, 550 of whom were randomly assigned to a treatment group (137 to lotion, 140 to cream, 135 to gel, and 138 to ointment). The numbers of participants who contributed at least two POEM scores and were included in the primary analysis were 131 in the lotion group, 137 in the cream group, 130 in the gel group, and 126 in the ointment group. Baseline median age was 4 years (IQR 2-8); 255 (46%) participants were girls, 295 (54%) were boys; 473 (86%) participants were White; and the mean POEM score was 9·3 (SD 5·5). There was no difference in eczema severity between emollient types over 16 weeks (global p value=0·77), with adjusted POEM pairwise differences of: cream versus lotion 0·42 (95% CI -0·48 to 1·32), gel versus lotion 0·17 (-0·75 to 1·09), ointment versus lotion -0·01 (-0·93 to 0·91), gel versus cream -0·25 (-1·15 to 0·65), ointment versus cream -0·43 (-1·34 to 0·48), and ointment versus gel -0·18 (-1·11 to 0·75). This result remained unchanged following multiple imputation, sensitivity, and subgroup analyses. The total number of adverse events did not significantly differ between the treatment groups (lotions 49 [36%], creams 54 [39%], gels 54 [40%], and ointments 48 [35%]; p=0·79), although stinging was less common with ointments (12 [9%] of 138 participants) than lotions (28 [20%] of 137), creams (24 [17%] of 140), or gels (25 [19%] of 135).

INTERPRETATION

We found no difference in effectiveness between the four main types of emollients for childhood eczema. Users need to be able to choose from a range of emollients to find one that they are more likely to use effectively.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Can primary care research be conducted more efficiently using routinely reported practice-level data: a cluster randomised controlled trial conducted in England?

OBJECTIVES

Conducting randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in primary care is challenging; recruiting patients during time-limited or remote consultations can increase selection bias and physical access to patients' notes is costly and time-consuming. We investigated barriers and facilitators to running a more efficient design.

DESIGN

An RCT aiming to reduce antibiotic prescribing among children presenting with acute cough and a respiratory tract infection (RTI) with a clinician-focused intervention, embedded at the practice level. By using aggregate level, routinely collected data for the coprimary outcomes, we removed the need to recruit individual participants.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Baseline data from general practitioner practices and interviews with individuals from Clinical Research Networks (CRNs) in England who helped recruit practices and Clinical Commission Groups (CCGs) who collected outcome data.

INTERVENTION

The intervention included: (1) explicit elicitation of parental concerns, (2) a prognostic algorithm to identify children at low risk of hospitalisation and (3) provision of a printout for carers including safety-netting advice.

COPRIMARY OUTCOMES

For 0-9 years old-(1) Dispensing data for amoxicillin and macrolide antibiotics and (2) hospital admission rate for RTI.

RESULTS

We recruited 294 of the intended 310 practices (95%) representing 336 496 registered 0-9 years old (5% of all 0-9 years old children). Included practices were slightly larger, had slightly lower baseline prescribing rates and were located in more deprived areas reflecting the national distribution. Engagement with CCGs and their understanding of their role in this research was variable. Engagement with CRNs and installation of the intervention was straight-forward although the impact of updates to practice IT systems and lack of familiarity required extended support in some practices. Data on the coprimary outcomes were almost 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

The infrastructure for trials at the practice level using routinely collected data for primary outcomes is viable in England and should be promoted for primary care research where appropriate.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN11405239.

Reducing antibiotic use in uncomplicated urinary tract infections in adult women: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigated analgesics, herbal formulations, delayed prescription of antibiotics and placebo to prevent overprescription of antibiotics in women with uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTI).

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effect of these strategies and to identify symptoms, signs or other factors that indicate a benefit from these strategies.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, LILACS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS

RCTs investigating any strategies to reduce antibiotics versus immediate antibiotics in adult women with uUTI in primary care.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We extracted individual participant data (IPD) if available, otherwise aggregate data (AD). Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis of the AD was used for pairwise comparisons. Candidate moderators and prognostic indicators of treatment effects were investigated using generalised linear mixed models based on IPD.

RESULTS

We analysed IPD of 3524 patients from eight RCTs and AD of 78 patients. Non-antibiotic strategies increased the rates of incomplete recovery (odds ratio [OR] 3.0; 95% credible interval [CI] 1.7-5.5; Bayesian p-value p_B=0.0017; τ=0.6), subsequent antibiotic treatment (OR 3.5 [95% CI 2.1, 5.8; p_B=0.0003) and pyelonephritis (OR 5.6; 95% CI 2.3, 13.9; p_B=0.0003). Conversely, they decreased overall antibiotic use by 63%. In patients positive for urinary erythrocytes and urine culture were at increased risk for incomplete recovery (OR 4.7; 95% CI 2.1-10.8; p_B =0.0010), but no difference was apparent where both were negative (OR 0.8; 95% CI 0.3-2.0; p_B =0.667). In patients treated with using non-antibiotic strategies, urinary erythrocytes and positive urine culture were independent prognostic indicators for subsequent antibiotic treatment and pyelonephritis.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Compared to immediate antibiotics, non-antibiotic strategies reduce overall antibiotic use but result in poorer clinical outcomes. The presence of erythrocytes and tests to confirm bacteria in urine could be used to target antibiotic prescribing.

Prognostic value of upper respiratory tract microbes in children presenting to primary care with respiratory infections: A prospective cohort study

Background

The association between upper respiratory tract microbial positivity and illness prognosis in children is unclear. This impedes clinical decision-making and means the utility of upper respiratory tract microbial point-of-care tests remains unknown. We investigated for relationships between pharyngeal microbes and symptom severity in children with suspected respiratory tract infection (RTI).

Methods

Baseline characteristics and pharyngeal swabs were collected from 2,296 children presenting to 58 general practices in Bristol, UK with acute cough and suspected RTI between 2011–2013. Post-consultation, parents recorded the severity of six RTI symptoms on a 0–6 scale daily for ≤28 days. We used multivariable hurdle regression, adjusting for clinical characteristics, antibiotics and other microbes, to investigate associations between respiratory microbes and mean symptom severity on days 2–4 post-presentation.

Results

Overall, 1,317 (57%) children with complete baseline, microbiological and symptom data were included. Baseline characteristics were similar in included participants and those lacking microbiological data. At least one virus was detected in 869 (66%) children, and at least one bacterium in 783 (60%). Compared to children with no virus detected (mean symptom severity score 1.52), adjusted mean symptom severity was 0.26 points higher in those testing positive for at least one virus (95% CI 0.15 to 0.38, p<0.001); and was also higher in those with detected Influenza B (0.44, 0.15 to 0.72, p = 0.003); RSV (0.41, 0.20 to 0.60, p<0.001); and Influenza A (0.25, -0.01 to 0.51, p = 0.059). Children positive for Enterovirus had a lower adjusted mean symptom severity (-0.24, -0.43 to -0.05, p = 0.013). Children with detected Bordetella pertussis (0.40, 0.00 to 0.79, p = 0.049) and those with detected Moraxella catarrhalis (-0.76, -1.06 to -0.45, p<0.001) respectively had higher and lower mean symptom severity compared to children without these bacteria.

Conclusions

There is a potential role for upper respiratory tract microbiological point-of-care tests in determining the prognosis of childhood RTIs.

Is the NICE traffic light system fit-for-purpose for children presenting with undifferentiated acute illness in primary care?

BACKGROUND

The National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) traffic light system uses children's symptoms and signs to categorise acute infections into red, amber and green. To our knowledge, no study has described the proportion of children with acute undifferentiated illness who fall into these categories in primary care, which is important since red and amber children are considered at higher risk of serious illness requiring urgent secondary care assessment.

AIM

To estimate the proportion of acutely unwell children presenting to primary care classified by the NICE traffic light system as red, amber or green, and to describe their initial management.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Secondary analysis of the Diagnosis of Urinary Tract infection in Young children prospective cohort study.

METHOD

6797 children under 5 years presenting to 225 general practices with acute undifferentiated illness were retrospectively mapped to the NICE traffic light system by a panel of general practitioners.

RESULTS

6406 (94%) children were classified as NICE red (32%) or amber (62%) with 1.6% red and 0.3%, respectively, referred the same day for hospital assessment; and 46% and 31%, respectively, treated with antibiotics. The remaining 385 (6%) were classified green, with none referred and 27% treated with antibiotics. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

The majority of children presenting to UK primary care with acute undifferentiated illness meet red or amber NICE traffic light criteria,with only 6% classified as low risk, making it unfit for use in general practice. Research is urgently needed to establish as triage system suitable for general practice.

Development and external validation of a clinical prediction model to aid coeliac disease diagnosis in primary care: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Coeliac disease (CD) affects approximately 1% of the population, although only a fraction of patients are diagnosed. Our objective was to develop diagnostic prediction models to help decide who should be offered testing for CD in primary care.

METHODS

Logistic regression models were developed in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD (between Sep 9, 1987 and Apr 4, 2021, n=107,075) and externally validated in CPRD Aurum (between Jan 1, 1995 and Jan 15, 2021, n=227,915), two UK primary care databases, using (and controlling for) 1:4 nested case-control designs. Candidate predictors included symptoms and chronic conditions identified in current guidelines and using a systematic review of the literature. We used elastic-net regression to further refine the models.

FINDINGS

The prediction model included 24, 24, and 21 predictors for children, women, and men, respectively. For children, the strongest predictors were type 1 diabetes, Turner syndrome, IgA deficiency, or first-degree relatives with CD. For women and men, these were anaemia and first-degree relatives. In the development dataset, the models showed good discrimination with a c-statistic of 0·84 (95% CI 0·83-0·84) in children, 0·77 (0·77-0·78) in women, and 0·81 (0·81-0·82) in men. External validation discrimination was lower, potentially because 'first-degree relative' was not recorded in the dataset used for validation. Model calibration was poor, tending to overestimate CD risk in all three groups in both datasets.

INTERPRETATION

These prediction models could help identify individuals with an increased risk of CD in relatively low prevalence populations such as primary care. Offering a serological test to these patients could increase case finding for CD. However, this involves offering tests to more people than is currently done. Further work is needed in prospective cohorts to refine and confirm the models and assess clinical and cost effectiveness.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme (grant number NIHR129020).

Systematic review with meta-analysis: the accuracy of serological tests to support the diagnosis of coeliac disease

BACKGROUND

There is growing support for a biopsy avoidant approach to diagnose coeliac disease in both children and adults, using a serological diagnosis instead.

AIMS

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for coeliac disease in adults and children.

METHODS

Seven electronic databases were searched between January 1990 and August 2020. Eligible diagnostic studies evaluated the accuracy of serological tests for coeliac disease against duodenal biopsy. Risk of bias assessment was performed using QUADAS-2. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate serology sensitivity and specificity at the most commonly reported thresholds.

RESULTS

113 studies (n = 28,338) were included, all in secondary care populations. A subset of studies were included in meta-analyses due to variations in diagnostic thresholds. Summary sensitivity and specificity of immunoglobulin A (IgA) anti-tissue transglutaminase were 90.7% (95% confidence interval: 87.3%, 93.2%) and 87.4% (84.4%, 90.0%) in adults (5 studies) and 97.7% (91.0%, 99.4%) and 70.2% (39.3%, 89.6%) in children (6 studies); and of IgA endomysial antibodies were 88.0% (75.2%, 94.7%) and 99.6% (92.3%, 100%) in adults (5 studies) and 94.5% (88.9%, 97.3%) and 93.8% (85.2%, 97.5%) in children (5 studies).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-tissue transglutaminase sensitivity appears to be sufficient to rule out coeliac disease in children. The high specificity of endomysial antibody in adults supports its use to rule in coeliac disease. This evidence underpins the current development of clinical guidelines for a serological diagnosis of coeliac disease. Studies in primary care are needed to evaluate serological testing strategies in this setting.

Respiratory tract infections and gut microbiome modifications: A systematic review

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are extremely common and can cause gastrointestinal tract symptoms and changes to the gut microbiota, yet these effects are poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the reported evidence of gut microbiome alterations in patients with a RTI compared to healthy controls (PROSPERO: CRD42019138853). We systematically searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane and the Clinical Trial Database for studies published between January 2015 and June 2021. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were human cohorts describing the gut microbiome in patients with an RTI compared to healthy controls and the infection was caused by a viral or bacterial pathogen. Dual data screening and extraction with narrative synthesis was performed. We identified 1,593 articles and assessed 11 full texts for inclusion. Included studies (some nested) reported gut microbiome changes in the context of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (n = 5), influenza (H1N1 and H7N9) (n = 2), Tuberculosis (TB) (n = 4), Community-Acquired Pneumonia CAP (n = 2) and recurrent RTIs (rRTI) (n = 1) infections. We found studies of patients with an RTI compared to controls reported a decrease in gut microbiome diversity (Shannon) of 1.45 units (95% CI, 0.15–2.50 [p, <0.0001]) and a lower abundance of taxa (p, 0.0086). Meta-analysis of the Shannon value showed considerable heterogeneity between studies (I², 94.42). Unbiased analysis displayed as a funnel plot revealed a depletion of Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcaceae and Ruminococcus and enrichment of Enterococcus. There was an important absence in the lack of cohort studies reporting gut microbiome changes and high heterogeneity between studies may be explained by variations in microbiome methods and confounder effects. Further human cohort studies are needed to understand RTI-induced gut microbiome changes to better understand interplay between microbes and respiratory health.

Topical or oral antibiotics for children with acute otitis media presenting with ear discharge: study protocol of a randomised controlled non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Around 15%-20% of children with acute otitis media present with ear discharge due to a spontaneous tear or perforation of the eardrum (AOMd). Current guidance recommends clinicians to consider oral antibiotics as first-line treatment in this condition. The opening in the eardrum however should allow topical antibiotics to enter the middle ear directly. Local administration of antibiotics does not expose children to systemic side effects and may put less selective resistance pressure on bacteria. Evidence on the effectiveness of this approach in children with AOMd is lacking.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A primary care-based, open, individually randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial. The trial aims to recruit 350 children aged 6 months to 12 years with AOMd and ear pain and/or fever. Participants will be randomised to 7 days of hydrocortisone-bacitracin-colistin eardrops five drops three times daily or amoxicillin oral suspension 50 mg/kg body weight per day, divided over three doses. Parents will keep a daily diary of AOM symptoms, adverse events and complications for 2 weeks. In addition, they will record AOM recurrences, healthcare utilisation and societal costs for 3 months. The primary outcome is the proportion of children without ear pain and fever at day 3. Secondary outcomes include ear pain and fever intensity/severity; days with ear discharge; eardrum perforation at 2 weeks; adverse events during first 2 weeks; costs; and cost effectiveness at 2 weeks and 3 months. The primary analyses will be intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses will be conducted as well.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The medical research ethics committee Utrecht, The Netherlands has given ethical approval (17-400/G-M). Parents/guardians of participants will provide written informed consent. Study results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed medical journals and presented at relevant (inter)national scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

The Netherlands National Trial Register; NTR6723. Date of registration: 27 November 2017.

Predisposing factors to acquisition of acute respiratory tract infections in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Preventing respiratory tract infections (RTIs) could have profound effects on quality of life, primary care workload, antibiotic prescribing and stewardship. We aimed to identify factors that increase and decrease RTI acquisition within Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries.

Methods

Systematic search of Medline, Embase, Cochrane and ISI Web of Knowledge for studies conducted up to July 2020 reporting predisposing factors for community RTI acquisition. Pooled odds ratios were calculated using a random-effects model.

Results

23 studies investigated risk factors associated with community-acquired pneumonia (n = 15); any RTI (n = 4); influenza like illness (n = 2); and lower RTI (n = 2). Demographic, lifestyle and social factors were: underweight BMI (pooled odds ratio (OR_p 2.14, 95% CI 1.58 to 2.70, p = 0.97); male sex (OR_p 1.30, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.33, p = 0.66); contact with pets (OR_p 1.35, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.54, p = 0.72); contact with children (OR_p 1.35, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.56, p = 0.05); and ex-smoking status (OR_p 1.57, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.88, p = 0.76). Health-related factors were: chronic liver condition (OR_p 1.30, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.50, p = 0.34); chronic renal condition (OR_p 1.47, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.85, p = 0.14); and any hospitalisation in previous five years (OR_p 1.64, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.82, p = 0.66).

Conclusions

We identified several modifiable risk factors associated with increased likelihood of acquiring RTIs in the community, including low BMI, contact with children and pets. Modification of risk factors and increased awareness of vulnerable groups could reduce morbidity, mortality and antibiotic use associated with RTIs.

PROSPERO registration

CRD42019134176.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06954-3.

Immediate oral versus immediate topical versus delayed oral antibiotics for children with acute otitis media with discharge: the REST three-arm non-inferiority electronic platform-supported RCT

BACKGROUND

Acute otitis media is a painful infection of the middle ear that is commonly seen in children. In some children, the eardrum spontaneously bursts, discharging visible pus (otorrhoea) into the outer ear.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the clinical effectiveness of immediate topical antibiotics or delayed oral antibiotics with the clinical effectiveness of immediate oral antibiotics in reducing symptom duration in children presenting to primary care with acute otitis media with discharge and the economic impact of the alternative strategies.

DESIGN

This was a pragmatic, three-arm, individually randomised (stratified by age < 2 vs. ≥ 2 years), non-inferiority, open-label trial, with economic and qualitative evaluations, supported by a health-record-integrated electronic trial platform [TRANSFoRm (Translational Research and Patient Safety in Europe)] with an internal pilot.

SETTING

A total of 44 English general practices.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged ≥ 12 months and < 16 years whose parents (or carers) were seeking medical care for unilateral otorrhoea (ear discharge) following recent-onset (≤ 7 days) acute otitis media.

INTERVENTIONS

(1) Immediate ciprofloxacin (0.3%) solution, four drops given three times daily for 7 days, or (2) delayed 'dose-by-age' amoxicillin suspension given three times daily (clarithromycin twice daily if the child was penicillin allergic) for 7 days, with structured delaying advice. All parents were given standardised information regarding symptom management (paracetamol/ibuprofen/fluids) and advice to complete the course.

COMPARATOR

Immediate 'dose-by-age' oral amoxicillin given three times daily (or clarithromycin given twice daily) for 7 days. Parents received standardised symptom management advice along with advice to complete the course.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Time from randomisation to the first day on which all symptoms (pain, fever, being unwell, sleep disturbance, otorrhoea and episodes of distress/crying) were rated 'no' or 'very slight' problem (without need for analgesia).

METHODS

Participants were recruited from routine primary care appointments. The planned sample size was 399 children. Follow-up used parent-completed validated symptom diaries.

RESULTS

Delays in software deployment and configuration led to small recruitment numbers and trial closure at the end of the internal pilot. Twenty-two children (median age 5 years; 62% boys) were randomised: five, seven and 10 to immediate oral, delayed oral and immediate topical antibiotics, respectively. All children received prescriptions as randomised. Seven (32%) children fully adhered to the treatment as allocated. Symptom duration data were available for 17 (77%) children. The median (interquartile range) number of days until symptom resolution in the immediate oral, delayed oral and immediate topical antibiotic arms was 6 (4-9), 4 (3-7) and 4 (3-6), respectively. Comparative analyses were not conducted because of small numbers. There were no serious adverse events and six reports of new or worsening symptoms. Qualitative clinician interviews showed that the trial question was important. When the platform functioned as intended, it was liked. However, staff reported malfunctioning software for long periods, resulting in missed recruitment opportunities. Troubleshooting the software placed significant burdens on staff.

LIMITATIONS

The over-riding weakness was the failure to recruit enough children.

CONCLUSIONS

We were unable to answer the main research question because of a failure to reach the required sample size. Our experience of running an electronic platform-supported trial in primary care has highlighted challenges from which we have drawn recommendations for the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and the research community. These should be considered before such a platform is used again.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN12873692 and EudraCT 2017-003635-10.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 67. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The accuracy of diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of coeliac disease (CD) is around 1%, but diagnosis is challenged by varied presentation and non-specific symptoms and signs. This study aimed to identify diagnostic indicators that may help identify patients at a higher risk of CD in whom further testing is warranted.

METHODS

International guidance for systematic review methods were followed and the review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42020170766). Six databases were searched until April 2021. Studies investigating diagnostic indicators, such as symptoms or risk conditions, in people with and without CD were eligible for inclusion. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool. Summary sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were estimated for each diagnostic indicator by fitting bivariate random effects meta-analyses.

FINDINGS

191 studies reporting on 26 diagnostic indicators were included in the meta-analyses. We found large variation in diagnostic accuracy estimates between studies and most studies were at high risk of bias. We found strong evidence that people with dermatitis herpetiformis, migraine, family history of CD, HLA DQ2/8 risk genotype, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis, or chronic liver disease are more likely than the general population to have CD. Symptoms, psoriasis, epilepsy, inflammatory bowel disease, systemic lupus erythematosus, fractures, type 2 diabetes, and multiple sclerosis showed poor diagnostic ability. A sensitivity analysis revealed a 3-fold higher risk of CD in first-degree relatives of CD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted testing of individuals with dermatitis herpetiformis, migraine, family history of CD, HLA DQ2/8 risk genotype, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis, or chronic liver disease could improve case-finding for CD, therefore expediting appropriate treatment and reducing adverse consequences. Migraine and chronic liver disease are not yet included as a risk factor in all CD guidelines, but it may be appropriate for these to be added. Future research should establish the diagnostic value of combining indicators.

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care in England (ARTIC PC): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic resistance is a global public health threat. Antibiotics are very commonly prescribed for children presenting with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), but there is little evidence from randomised controlled trials of the effectiveness of antibiotics, both overall or among key clinical subgroups. In ARTIC PC, we assessed whether amoxicillin reduces the duration of moderately bad symptoms in children presenting with uncomplicated (non-pneumonic) LRTI in primary care, overall and in key clinical subgroups.

METHODS

ARTIC PC was a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 56 general practices in England. Eligible children were those aged 6 months to 12 years presenting in primary care with acute uncomplicated LRTI judged to be infective in origin, where pneumonia was not suspected clinically, with symptoms for less than 21 days. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg per day or placebo oral suspension, in three divided doses orally for 7 days. Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome was the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse (measured using a validated diary) for up to 28 days or until symptoms resolved. The primary outcome and safety were assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN79914298).

FINDINGS

Between Nov 9, 2016, and March 17, 2020, 432 children (not including six who withdrew permission for use of their data after randomisation) were randomly assigned to the antibiotics group (n=221) or the placebo group (n=211). Complete data for symptom duration were available for 317 (73%) patients; missing data were imputed for the primary analysis. Median durations of moderately bad or worse symptoms were similar between the groups (5 days [IQR 4-11] in the antibiotics group vs 6 days [4-15] in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 0·90-1·42]). No differences were seen for the primary outcome between the treatment groups in the five prespecified clinical subgroups (patients with chest signs, fever, physician rating of unwell, sputum or chest rattle, and short of breath). Estimates from complete-case analysis and a per-protocol analysis were similar to the imputed data analysis.

INTERPRETATION

Amoxicillin for uncomplicated chest infections in children is unlikely to be clinically effective either overall or for key subgroups in whom antibiotics are commonly prescribed. Unless pneumonia is suspected, clinicians should provide safety-netting advice but not prescribe antibiotics for most children presenting with chest infections.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

Novel multi-virus rapid respiratory microbiological point-of-care testing in primary care: a mixed-methods feasibility evaluation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Rapid multi-viral respiratory microbiological point-of-care tests (POCTs) have not been evaluated in UK primary care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a multi-viral microbiological POCT for suspected respiratory tract infections (RTIs).

METHODS

In this observational, mixed-methods feasibility study practices were provided with a POCT machine for any patient aged ≥3 months with suspected RTI. Dual throat/nose swabs tested for 17 respiratory viruses and three atypical bacteria, 65 minutes per sample.

RESULTS

Twenty clinicians recruited 93 patients (estimated 1:3 of all RTI cases). Patient's median age was 29, 57% female, and 44% with co-morbidities. Pre-test diagnoses: upper RTI (48%); lower RTI (30%); viral/influenza-like illness (18%); other (4%). Median set-up time was 2.72 minutes, with 72% swabs processed <4 hours, 90% <24 hours. Tests detected ≥1 virus in 58%, no pathogen 37% and atypical bacteria 2% (3% inconclusive). Antibiotics were prescribed pre-test to 35% of patients with no pathogen detected and 25% with a virus. Post-test diagnoses changed in 20%, and diagnostic certainty increased (P = 0.02), more so when the test was positive rather than negative (P < 0.001). Clinicians predicted decreased antibiotic benefit post-test (P = 0.02). Interviews revealed the POCT has clear potential, was easy to use and well-liked, but limited by time-to-result and the absence of testing for typical respiratory bacteria.

CONCLUSIONS

This POCT was acceptable and appeared to influence clinical reasoning. Clinicians wanted faster time-to-results and more information about bacteria. Randomized trials are needed to understand the safety, efficacy and patient perceptions of these POCTs.

Outcome selection in primary care antimicrobial stewardship research

Clinical and antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) outcomes are highly relevant to pragmatic primary care trials, reflecting aspects, such as persistent symptoms and relapses, or antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance. Sometimes both can be equally important. We present evidence demonstrating the wide range of outcome measures used in previous primary care trials and observe that there are no agreed standards for their design. We describe AMS interventions and outcomes in terms of intervention types and targets, and we make recommendations for future research designs. Specifically, we argue that: (i) where co-primary outcomes are considered appropriate, investigators should pre-specify interpretation of conflicting results; (ii) intervention evaluation should ensure prescriptions from sources outside of the usual provider are included in any AMS effectiveness measure; (iii) where possible, outcomes should include antimicrobial resistance; (iv) in some contexts, it may be necessary to include the antibiotics used within the intervention as part of the outcome; and (v) patient involvement is needed to establish the principles investigators should use when deciding whether the AMS or clinical outcomes should be prioritized.

Prevalence and Antimicrobial Resistance of Bacteria in Children With Acute Otitis Media and Ear Discharge: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Of children with acute otitis media (AOM), 15%-20% present with acute onset ear discharge due to a spontaneous perforation of the tympanic membrane (AOMd). This review aims to quantify the prevalence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) status of bacteria in children with AOMd in the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) era.

METHODS

Systematic searches were performed in PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library from inception to June 7, 2019. Two reviewers extracted relevant data and assessed risk of bias independently. All English studies reporting any prevalence and/or AMR data of bacterial middle ear isolates from children with AOMd were included. Risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal checklist.

RESULTS

Of 4088 unique records retrieved, 19 studies (10,560 children) were included. Overall quality was judged good. Streptococcus pneumoniae (median 26.1%, range 9.1%-47.9%), Haemophilus influenzae (median 18.8%, range 3.9%-55.3%), Staphylococcus aureus (median 12.3%, range 2.3%-34.9%) and Streptococcus pyogenes (median 11.8%, range 1.0%-30.9%) were the most prevalent bacteria. In 76.0% (median, range 48.7%-100.0%, 19 studies, 1,429 children) any bacterium was identified. AMR data were sparse and mainly limited to S. pneumoniae. We found no evidence of a clear shift in the prevalence of bacteria and AMR over time.

CONCLUSIONS

In children with AOMd, S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae are the 2 predominant bacteria, followed by S. aureus and S. pyogenes in the post-PCV era. AMR data are sparse and no clearly change over time was observed. Ongoing surveillance of the microbiology profile in children with AOMd is warranted to guide antibiotic selection and to assess the impact of children's PCV status.

Challenges to implementing electronic trial data collection in primary care: a qualitative study

Background

Within-consultation recruitment to primary care trials is challenging. Ensuring procedures are efficient and self-explanatory is the key to optimising recruitment. Trial recruitment software that integrates with the electronic health record to support and partially automate procedures is becoming more common. If it works well, such software can support greater participation and more efficient trial designs. An innovative electronic trial recruitment and outcomes software was designed to support recruitment to the Runny Ear randomised controlled trial, comparing topical, oral and delayed antibiotic treatment for acute otitis media with discharge in children. A qualitative evaluation investigated the views and experiences of primary care staff using this trial software.

Methods

Staff were purposively sampled in relation to site, role and whether the practice successfully recruited patients. In-depth interviews were conducted using a flexible topic guide, audio recorded and transcribed. Data were analysed thematically.

Results

Sixteen staff were interviewed, including GPs, practice managers, information technology (IT) leads and research staff. GPs wanted trial software that automatically captures patient data. However, the experience of getting the software to work within the limited and complex IT infrastructure of primary care was frustrating and time consuming. Installation was reliant on practice level IT expertise, which varied between practices. Although most had external IT support, this rarely included supported for research IT. Arrangements for approving new software varied across practices and often, but not always, required authorisation from Clinical Commissioning Groups.

Conclusions

Primary care IT systems are not solely under the control of individual practices or CCGs or the National Health Service. Rather they are part of a complex system that spans all three and is influenced by semi-autonomous stakeholders operating at different levels. This led to time consuming and sometimes insurmountable barriers to installation at the practice level. These need to be addressed if software supporting efficient research in primary care is to become a reality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12875-021-01498-6.

Parents' preferences for nursery care when children are unwell: a discrete choice experiment

BACKGROUND

Pre-school children's daycare is associated with increased incidence of respiratory and diarrhoeal illnesses. While the incidence might be reduced if all unwell children were kept at home, parental employment pressures make this difficult when children are marginally unwell.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted to identify what aspects of daycare policy and provision would affect parents' decisions to keep marginally unwell children home. Prior qualitative research informed parameter choice. The DCE was accompanied by a best-worst scaling task examining preferences for four modifiable aspects of care: swapping unused daycare sessions, reimbursing unused sessions, daycare paracetamol policy and presence of a 'quiet room'.

RESULTS

Paracetamol guidelines and the presence of a quiet room had the strongest predicted influence on parents' decision-making. Conditional on assumptions about the set-up of the daycare, introducing a 'no paracetamol' policy would result in a fall from 62 to 25% in mean predicted probabilities of a parent sending a marginally unwell child to nursery, while introducing a quiet room would increase the mean probability from 34 to 53%.

CONCLUSIONS

Daycare policy, particularly the use of paracetamol prior to attendance, could impact parents' decisions to send unwell children to daycare, potentially influencing the transmission of children's infectious illness.

Safety of reducing antibiotic prescribing in primary care: a mixed-methods study

Background

The threat of antimicrobial resistance has led to intensified efforts to reduce antibiotic utilisation, but serious bacterial infections are increasing in frequency.

Objectives

To estimate the risks of serious bacterial infections in association with lower antibiotic prescribing and understand stakeholder views with respect to safe antibiotic reduction.

Design

Mixed-methods research was undertaken, including a qualitative interview study of patient and prescriber views that informed a cohort study and a decision-analytic model, using primary care electronic health records. These three work packages were used to design an application (app) for primary care prescribers.

Data sources

The Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Setting

This took place in UK general practices.

Participants

A total of 706 general practices with 66.2 million person-years of follow-up from 2002 to 2017 and antibiotic utilisation evaluated for 671,830 registered patients. The qualitative study included 31 patients and 30 health-care professionals from primary care.

Main outcome measures

Sepsis and localised bacterial infections.

Results

Patients were concerned about antimicrobial resistance and the side effects, as well as the benefits, of antibiotic treatment. Prescribers viewed the onset of sepsis as the most concerning potential outcome of reduced antibiotic prescribing. More than 40% of antibiotic prescriptions in primary care had no coded indication recorded across both Vision® and EMIS® practice systems. Antibiotic prescribing rates varied widely between general practices, but there was no evidence that serious bacterial infections were less frequent at higher prescribing practices (adjusted rate ratio for 20% increase in prescribing 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.06; p = 0.074). The probability of sepsis was lower if an antibiotic was prescribed at an infection consultation, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions required to prevent one episode of sepsis (i.e. the number needed to treat) decreased with age. For those aged 0–4 years, the number needed to treat was 29,773 (95% uncertainty interval 18,458 to 71,091) in boys and 27,014 (95% uncertainty interval 16,739 to 65,709) in girls. For those aged > 85 years, the number needed to treat was 262 (95% uncertainty interval 236 to 293) in men and 385 (95% uncertainty interval 352 to 421) in women. Frailty was associated with a greater risk of sepsis and a smaller number needed to treat. For severely frail patients aged 55–64 years, the number needed to treat was 247 (95% uncertainty interval 156 to 459) for men and 343 (95% uncertainty interval 234 to 556) for women. At all ages, the probability of sepsis was greatest for urinary tract infection, followed by skin infection and respiratory tract infection. The numbers needed to treat were generally smaller for the period 2014–17, when sepsis was diagnosed more frequently. The results are available using an app that we developed to provide primary care prescribers with stratified risk estimates during infection consultations.

Limitations

Analyses were based on non-randomised comparisons. Infection episodes and antibiotic prescribing are poorly documented in primary care.

Conclusions

Antibiotic treatment is generally associated with lower risks, but the most serious bacterial infections remain infrequent even without antibiotic treatment. This research identifies risk strata in which antibiotic prescribing can be more safely reduced.

Future work

The software developed from this research may be further developed and investigated for antimicrobial stewardship effect.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 9. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Should homes and workplaces purchase portable air filters to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory infections? A systematic review

Respiratory infections, including SARS-CoV-2, are spread via inhalation or ingestion of airborne pathogens. Airborne transmission is difficult to control, particularly indoors. Manufacturers of high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters claim they remove almost all small particles including airborne bacteria and viruses. This study investigates whether modern portable, commercially available air filters reduce the incidence of respiratory infections and/or remove bacteria and viruses from indoor air. We systematically searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane for studies published between January 2000 and September 2020. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they included a portable, commercially available air filter in any indoor setting including care homes, schools or healthcare settings, investigating either associations with incidence of respiratory infections or removal and/or capture of aerosolised bacteria and viruses from the air within the filters. Dual data screening and extraction with narrative synthesis. No studies were found investigating the effects of air filters on the incidence of respiratory infections. Two studies investigated bacterial capture within filters and bacterial load in indoor air. One reported higher numbers of viable bacteria in the HEPA filter than in floor dust samples. The other reported HEPA filtration combined with ultraviolet light reduced bacterial load in the air by 41% (sampling time not reported). Neither paper investigated effects on viruses. There is an important absence of evidence regarding the effectiveness of a potentially cost-efficient intervention for indoor transmission of respiratory infections, including SARS-CoV-2. Two studies provide ‘proof of principle’ that air filters can capture airborne bacteria in an indoor setting. Randomised controlled trials are urgently needed to investigate effects of portable HEPA filters on incidence of respiratory infections.

Delayed antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections: individual patient data meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the overall effect of delayed antibiotic prescribing on average symptom severity for patients with respiratory tract infections in the community, and to identify any factors modifying this effect.

DESIGN

Systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, EBSCO CINAHL Plus, and Web of Science.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Randomised controlled trials and observational cohort studies in a community setting that allowed comparison between delayed versus no antibiotic prescribing, and delayed versus immediate antibiotic prescribing.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the average symptom severity two to four days after the initial consultation measured on a seven item scale (ranging from normal to as bad as could be). Secondary outcomes were duration of illness after the initial consultation, complications resulting in admission to hospital or death, reconsultation with the same or worsening illness, and patient satisfaction rated on a Likert scale.

RESULTS

Data were obtained from nine randomised controlled trials and four observational studies, totalling 55 682 patients. No difference was found in follow-up symptom severity (seven point scale) for delayed versus immediate antibiotics (adjusted mean difference -0.003, 95% confidence interval -0.12 to 0.11) or delayed versus no antibiotics (0.02, -0.11 to 0.15). Symptom duration was slightly longer in those given delayed versus immediate antibiotics (11.4 v 10.9 days), but was similar for delayed versus no antibiotics. Complications resulting in hospital admission or death were lower with delayed versus no antibiotics (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.30 to 1.27) and delayed versus immediate antibiotics (0.78, 0.53 to 1.13). A significant reduction in reconsultation rates (odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.87) and an increase in patient satisfaction (adjusted mean difference 0.09, 0.06 to 0.11) were observed in delayed versus no antibiotics. The effect of delayed versus immediate antibiotics and delayed versus no antibiotics was not modified by previous duration of illness, fever, comorbidity, or severity of symptoms. Children younger than 5 years had a slightly higher follow-up symptom severity with delayed antibiotics than with immediate antibiotics (adjusted mean difference 0.10, 95% confidence interval 0.03 to 0.18), but no increased severity was found in the older age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Delayed antibiotic prescribing is a safe and effective strategy for most patients, including those in higher risk subgroups. Delayed prescribing was associated with similar symptom duration as no antibiotic prescribing and is unlikely to lead to poorer symptom control than immediate antibiotic prescribing. Delayed prescribing could reduce reconsultation rates and is unlikely to be associated with an increase in symptoms or illness duration, except in young children.

STUDY REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42018079400.