Iterative data-driven forecasting of the transmission and management of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 using social interventions at the county-level

The control of the initial outbreak and spread of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 via the application of population-wide non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures have led to remarkable successes in dampening the pandemic globally. However, with countries beginning to ease or lift these measures fully to restart activities, concern is growing regarding the impacts that such reopening of societies could have on the subsequent transmission of the virus. While mathematical models of COVID-19 transmission have played important roles in evaluating the impacts of these measures for curbing virus transmission, a key need is for models that are able to effectively capture the effects of the spatial and social heterogeneities that drive the epidemic dynamics observed at the local community level. Iterative forecasting that uses new incoming epidemiological and social behavioral data to sequentially update locally-applicable transmission models can overcome this gap, potentially resulting in better predictions and policy actions. Here, we present the development of one such data-driven iterative modelling tool based on publicly available data and an extended SEIR model for forecasting SARS-CoV-2 at the county level in the United States. Using data from the state of Florida, we demonstrate the utility of such a system for exploring the outcomes of the social measures proposed by policy makers for containing the course of the pandemic. We provide comprehensive results showing how the locally identified models could be employed for accessing the impacts and societal tradeoffs of using specific social protective strategies. We conclude that it could have been possible to lift the more disruptive social interventions related to movement restriction/social distancing measures earlier if these were accompanied by widespread testing and contact tracing. These intensified social interventions could have potentially also brought about the control of the epidemic in low- and some medium-incidence county settings first, supporting the development and deployment of a geographically-phased approach to reopening the economy of Florida. We have made our data-driven forecasting system publicly available for policymakers and health officials to use in their own locales, so that a more efficient coordinated strategy for controlling SARS-CoV-2 region-wide can be developed and successfully implemented.

The extent, nature, and pathogenic consequences of helminth polyparasitism in humans: A meta-analysis

Background

Individual helminth infections are ubiquitous in the tropics; geographical overlaps in endemicity and epidemiological reports suggest areas endemic for multiple helminthiases are also burdened with high prevalences of intestinal protozoan infections, malaria, tuberculosis (TB), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Despite this, pathogens tend to be studied in isolation, and there remains a need for a better understanding of the community ecology and health consequences of helminth polyparasitism to inform the design of effective parasite control programs.

Methodology

We performed meta-analyses to (i) evaluate the commonality of polyparasitism for helminth-helminth, helminth-intestinal protozoa, helminth-malaria, helminth-TB, and helminth-HIV co-infections, (ii) assess the potential for interspecies interactions among helminth-helminth and helminth-intestinal protozoan infections, and (iii) determine the presence and magnitude of association between specific parasite pairs. Additionally, we conducted a review of reported health consequences of multiply-infected individuals compared to singly- or not multiply-infected individuals.

Principal findings

We found that helminth-helminth and helminth-intestinal protozoan multiple infections were significantly more common than single infections, while individuals with malaria, TB, and HIV were more likely to be singly-infected with these infections than co-infected with at least one helminth. Most observed species density distributions significantly differed from the expected distributions, suggesting the potential presence of interspecies interactions. All significant associations between parasite pairs were positive in direction, irrespective of the combination of pathogens. Polyparasitized individuals largely exhibited lower hemoglobin levels and higher anemia prevalence, while the differences in growth-related variables were mostly statistically insignificant.

Conclusions

Our findings confirm that helminth polyparasitism and co-infection with major diseases is common in the tropics. A multitude of factors acting at various hierarchical levels, such as interspecies interactions at the within-host infra-parasite community level and environmental variables at the higher host community level, could explain the observed positive associations between pathogens; there remains a need to develop new frameworks which can consider these multilevel factors to better understand the processes structuring parasite communities to accomplish their control.

Helminth infections are a highly prevalent global health problem. These parasitic worm infections occur in areas also burdened with intestinal protozoan infections, malaria, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus. While these pathogens tend to be studied in isolation, there remains a need to better understand the nature, extent, and health consequences of helminth polyparasitism and co-infection with major diseases. Here, we reviewed the literature and performed meta-analyses to evaluate the commonality of helminth polyparasitism and co-infection, the potential for interspecies interactions between parasites, the association between parasite pairs, and the health consequences among multiply-infected individuals. We confirmed that polyparasitism and co-infection with major diseases are common in the global South and found that multiply-infected individuals experienced worse health consequences when compared to singly or not-multiply infected individuals. Our analysis suggested the potential presence of interspecies interactions and we identified the existence of positive associations between parasite pairs. These findings support the call for integrating deworming into malaria, TB, and HIV treatment protocols and suggest there remains a need to improve our understanding of the factors influencing co-transmission to achieve sustainable parasite control.

Socio-epidemiological and land cover risk factors for melioidosis in Kedah, Northern Malaysia

BACKGROUND

Melioidosis, a fatal infectious disease caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, is increasingly diagnosed in tropical regions. However, data on risk factors and the geographic epidemiology of the disease are still limited. Previous studies have also largely been based on the analysis of case series data. Here, we undertook a more definitive hospital-based matched case-control study coupled with spatial analysis to identify demographic, socioeconomic and landscape risk factors for bacteremic melioidosis in the Kedah region of northern Malaysia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We obtained patient demographic and residential information and clinical presentation and medical history data from 254 confirmed melioidosis cases and 384 matched controls attending Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah (HSB), the main tertiary hospital of Alor Setar, the capital city of Kedah, during the period between 2005 and 2011. Crude and adjusted odds ratios employing conditional logistic regression analysis were used to assess if melioidosis in this region is related to risk factors connected with socio-demographics, various behavioural characteristics, and co-occurring diseases. Spatial clusters of cases were determined using a continuous Poisson model as deployed in SaTScan. A land cover map in conjunction with mapped case data was used to determine disease-land type associations using the Fisher's exact test deploying simulated p-values. Crude and adjusted odds ratios indicate that melioidosis in this region is related to gender (males), race, occupation (farming) and co-occurring chronic diseases, particularly diabetes. Spatial analyses of disease incidence, however, showed that disease risk and geographic clustering of cases are related strongly to land cover types, with risk of disease increasing non-linearly with the degree of human modification of the natural ecosystem.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

These findings indicate that melioidosis represents a complex socio-ecological public health problem in Kedah, and that its control requires an understanding and modification of the coupled human and natural variables that govern disease transmission in endemic communities.

Biosocial Determinants of Persistent Schistosomiasis among Schoolchildren in Tanzania despite Repeated Treatment

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease endemic to Tanzania and other countries of the global south, which is currently being addressed through preventive chemotherapy campaigns. However, there is growing recognition that chemotherapy strategies will need to be supplemented to sustainably control and eventually eliminate the disease. There remains a need to understand the factors contributing to continued transmission in order to ensure the effective configuration and implementation of supplemented programs. We conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire, to evaluate the biosocial determinants facilitating the persistence of schistosomiasis, among 1704 Tanzanian schoolchildren residing in two districts undergoing a preventive chemotherapeutic program: Rufiji and Mkuranga. A meta-analysis was carried out to select the diagnostic questions that provided a likelihood for predicting infection status. We found that self-reported schistosomiasis continues to persist among the schoolchildren, despite multiple rounds of drug administration.Using mixed effects logistic regression modeling, we found biosocial factors, including gender, socio-economic status, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH)-related variables, were associated with this continued schistosomiasis presence. These findings highlight the significant role that social factors may play in the persistence of disease transmission despite multiple treatments, and support the need not only for including integrated technical measures, such as WASH, but also addressing issues of poverty and gender when designing effective and sustainable schistosomiasis control programs.

Randomized clinical trial comparing balloon dilatation to transurethral resection of prostate for benign prostatic hyperplasia

To evaluate the effectiveness and clinical outcome of patients treated by balloon dilatation of the prostate (BDP) compared with transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) we performed a prospective, randomized clinical trial. Fifty-one men were randomized to either BDP or TURP. Both groups demonstrated a significant decrease in symptom score from preoperative levels (TURP 13.6 to 6.0 [p < 0.05]; BDP 14.1 to 8.1 [p < 0.01] at 1 year). The TURP group improved peak urinary flows; while, after initial improvement, the balloon group returned to pre-procedure levels. At twelve months 14 of 19 BDP patients (74%) and 14 of 18 TURP patients (78%) considered themselves improved. BDP results in symptomatic improvement; however, the effect may not persist. Objective improvement after BDP does not always occur. The morbidity of BDP is low and compares favourably to that of TURP. Thus BDP does not appear to be as effective as TURP and may offer only temporary relief of symptoms.

Prevention of urinary tract infection and bacteremia following transurethral surgery: oral lomefloxacin compared to parenteral cefotaxime

A multicenter, randomized, open label study compared the safety and efficacy of a single dose of oral lomefloxacin, a broad-spectrum antimicrobial agent of the quinolone class, to a single parenteral dose of cefotaxime, a third generation cephalosporin, for prophylaxis in transurethral surgery. Of the 230 patients initially recruited 182 were considered evaluable: 92 in the lomefloxacin group and 90 in the cefotaxime group. Both study groups were well balanced with respect to demographics and transurethral procedures. Efficacy and safety were evaluated with urine cultures, clinical laboratory evaluations and monitoring of adverse events. The success rate among the lomefloxacin patients was 98% versus 94% in the cefotaxime patients. The difference was not statistically significant. Adverse events, regardless of attributability, were reported by 16% of the lomefloxacin patients and 17% of the cefotaxime patients, respectively. Our results indicate efficacy and safety profiles of lomefloxacin equivalent to cefotaxime. Lomefloxacin has the economic advantage of an oral route of administration compared to the parenteral route of cefotaxime for prophylaxis in transurethral genitourinary procedures.

Bilateral renal hemangiopericytoma

The first reported case of bilateral renal hemangiopericytoma is presented. The 19 previous renal hemangiopericytomas that have been reported in the world literature are reviewed. This lesion has afflicted patients ranging in age from sixteen to sixty-eight years (mean 41 years) with an equal sex distribution. Mortality from hemangiopericytoma of the kidney has been 50 percent, and the primary mode of therapy remains surgical.

Adenocarcinoma of the prostate: biopsy to whole mount. Denver VA experience

Clinical understaging abounds in adenocarcinoma of the prostate. The preoperative prostate-specific antigen is not useful in preoperative staging, although enzymatic acid phosphatase elevation is associated with positive nodes in two-thirds of patients. Whole mount evaluation of radical prostatectomy specimens reveals tumor multicentricity in more than half the patients and tumor extension beyond the prostatic capsule in the majority of patients. A significant number of patients have a final tumor grade higher than that initially assigned. Capsule penetration by tumor is a factor of tumor grade as is volume.

Continent ileocolonic urinary reservoirs for filling and lining the post-exenteration pelvis

Pelvic exenteration has a high complication rate due, in large part, to the extensive raw surfaces and dead space it creates. Numerous techniques have been used to control this space and line these surfaces, but none, to date, has proven to be a reliable solution. We investigated the use of continent ileocolonic urinary reservoirs as a new "flap" to fill and line the pelvis in 17 patients, and found that our historical complication rate of 44% for pelvic exenteration was reduced to 18%. These reservoirs appear to be an improved method of managing the post-exenteration pelvis.

Distribution of skeletal metastases in prostatic and lung cancer. Mechanisms of skeletal metastases

The distribution of skeletal metastases in prostatic and lung cancer was examined to test the hypothesis that prostatic carcinoma spreads by a unique hematogenous route. Abnormal technetium-99m methylene diphosphonate bone scans were retrospectively reviewed in 71 patients with prostatic carcinoma and 41 patients with lung cancer comparing patterns of osseous involvement. Differences in the distribution of lesions were not significant. It is concluded that prostatic carcinoma does not metastasize to specific skeletal sites by a singular hematogenous pathway.

Intraoperative and early complications of staging pelvic lymph node dissection in prostatic adenocarcinoma

Pelvic lymphadenectomy is the final staging procedure before institution of therapy for patients with clinically locally confined adenocarcinoma of the prostate, a normal acid phosphatase, and a bone scan free of metastatic disease. The pathologic information it provides cannot be accurately acquired at the present time by any other method. Extraperitoneal lymphadenectomy is associated with some morbidity intraoperatively and in the early postoperative period. We enumerate our results with 284 extraperitoneal lymphadenectomies.

Extended resection of fixed rectal cancer

Between 1980 and 1987, we operated on 23 patients (16 men and 7 women) with fixed rectal cancer. Two patients had primary tumours. Twenty-one patients had recurrent disease (anterior resection, 8; abdominoperineal resection, 13). Eighteen patients had prior irradiation (40 Gy to 120 Gy). Resection was possible in 20 patients (16 for cure and 4 for palliation). Operations included extended proctectomy (n = 4), standard pelvic exenteration (n = 4), and sacropelvic exenteration (n = 12). One (5%) patient died postoperatively and five (25%) others had significant postoperative complications. With a follow-up time of 1 to 48+ months (median, 18 months), nine patients are dead of disease (operative death included), four are living with disease, two are dead free of disease, and eight (50% of those undergoing curative resection) are living free of disease. The results suggest that resection of fixed rectal cancer is feasible in many patients and of potential long-term benefit to approximately 50% of those in whom curative resection is possible.

Unilateral absence of the vas deferens. A useful clinical sign

The vas deferens is infrequently palpated at the time of routine physical examination or even during examination of the scrotum. Its absence, especially unilaterally, has been associated both clinically and at the time of autopsy with ipsilateral renal anomalies, especially agenesis. Twenty-six patients with unilateral agenesis of the vas deferens were examined for the presence of an ipsilateral renal unit; 25 patients were examined by intravenous pyelography and one by bone scan. Twenty-two patients were missing the ipsilateral renal unit. Contralateral abnormalities occurred in seven (33%) of these 22 patients also. The absence of the vas deferens is a significant anomaly, and examination for the presence of the ipsilateral renal unit is mandatory.

Pelvic and sacropelvic exenteration for locally advanced or recurrent anorectal cancer

Postirradiation "fixed" anorectal tumors are often considered incurable. Since 1980, we have carried out 12 pelvic and seven sacropelvic exenterations for this problem (adenocarcinoma, 18; squamous cancer, one). Nine tumors were primary; ten were recurrent (five after an anterior resection and five after an abdominoperineal resection). Prior irradiation ranged from 3000 to 12,000 rad (30 to 120 Gy). Four patients had synchronous distant metastases; three died of disease (one with local recurrence), and the fourth patient has been living with disease (distant metastasis). Fifteen patients (four with B2 tumors and 11 with Astler-Coller C2 disease) had no extrapelvic disease. One patient died of postoperative complications; two others died free of disease. Three of the 15 patients died of disease (all with local recurrence), and one has been living with disease (local recurrence). Eight (53%) of 15 patients have been living free of disease 12+ to 53+ months. The results suggest that many patients with fixed postirradiation anorectal tumors may be salvaged by aggressive surgery.

Computed tomography of prostatic abscess

Although the CT appearance of prostatitis and prostatic carcinoma have been described, there are no reports of the CT diagnosis of prostatic abscess, an unusual complication of prostatic infection. The appearance of low attenuating, round, well demarcated regions within one or more lobes of the prostate gland by CT is suggestive of prostatic abscess.

Stage D1 adenocarcinoma of prostate

The natural history of Stage D1 adenocarcinoma of the prostate remains unclear. In a series of 50 patients with positive pelvic lymph nodes at the time of staging lymphadenectomy, metastatic disease developed in 43 per cent of the patients treated for cure within the period of time of follow-up. Several series from the literature confirm those findings. Positive pelvic lymph nodes most probably represent systemic disease, and the patients are incurable by current surgical and radiotherapeutic modalities.

Acid phosphatase: its influence on the management of carcinoma of the prostate

Of 343 patients who underwent pelvic lymph node dissection during treatment for carcinoma of the prostate 25 had persistently elevated serum enzymatic acid phosphatase levels preoperatively: 15 (60 per cent) had metastases to the pelvic lymph nodes and 10 (40 per cent) had negative nodes. Bone metastases occurred in 10 of 12 (83 per cent) and 5 of 7 patients (71 per cent), respectively, who were followed for a minimum of 2 years. Of the 318 patients with normal serum enzymatic phosphatase levels 70 (22 per cent) had positive nodes. A persistently elevated serum enzymatic acid phosphatase level in patients with proved carcinoma of the prostate, with elimination of infrequent causes of enzyme elevation, indicates metastases and has significant implications regarding staging and, thus, therapy of this disease.

Prostatic carcinoma. Influence of tumor grade on results of pelvic lymphadenectomy

Two hundred fifteen patients have undergone pelvic node dissection in clinical Stages A1, A2, B1, and B2 adenocarcinoma of the prostate as a final staging procedure. Two hundred four patients have had the tumor grade assessed adequately and the influence of the grade on the results of the node dissection evaluated. As the grade of the primary tumor worsens in each clinical stage, the incidence of positive nodes increases.

Metastatic renal cell carcinoma to stomach

Metastatic tumors to the stomach are distinctly unusual. Rarer still is renal cell carcinoma metastatic to the stomach following radical excision of the primary tumor several years previously. During evaluation for an upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, a patient was found to have a large antral mass. Endoscopic biopsy revealed renal cell carcinoma. At celiotomy the tumor was found to have penetrated through to the liver capsule. An antrectomy and wedge resection of the left lobe of the liver was performed. There was no evidence of further metastatic disease. This is the first report of such a patient resected for cure, and emphasizes the unique biology of this tumor in its potential for late, solitary metastasis and surgical resectability.

Prevention of obturator nerve stimulation during transurethral surgery

The obturator nerve passes in close proximity to the inferolateral bladder wall, bladder neck and lateral prostatic urethra. During a transurethral operation resection in these areas may result in stimulation of the obturator nerve, causing violent adductor contraction and possible inadvertent bladder perforation. To block this reaction d-tubocurarine and succinylcholine can be used during general anesthesia. However, it often is preferable to use spinal anesthesia during transurethral operations. Local anesthetic blockade of the obturator nerve as it passes through the obturator canal if effective for adductor spasm during spinal anesthesia. We herein describe the anatomy, pharmacology, technique and results of local obturator nerve blockade.

Lack of usefulness of bone marrow enzymes and calcium in staging patients with prostatic cancer

Bone marrow acid phosphatase has been reported to be a sensitive indicator of early bony metastasis from adenocarcinoma of the prostate. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, we measured bone marrow acid and alkaline phosphatase, lactic dehydrogenase, and calcium levels in a group of 84 patients with a variety of problems, including 18 with cancer of the prostate. We found that the bone marrow acid and alkaline phosphatase and lactic dehydrogenase were elevated and calcium was depressed in most patients. Among patients with prostate cancer, bone marrow acid phosphatase was not significantly different between those with or without bone metastases. In addition, the patients with prostatic cancer did not have higher levels of bone marrow acid phosphatase than subjects with other malignant and nonmalignant conditions. The level of acid and alkaline phosphatase, lactic dehydrogenase and calcium varied predictably with the aspiration technique used and was independent of sex, disease state or method of chemical determination. Due to this variation, we believe that bone marrow enzyme and calcium levels are of no value in the detection of metastases in patients with prostate cancer.

Torsion of spermatic cord

A series of 198 cases of acute unilateral, painful scrotal swelling considered to be torsion is presented and an aggressive surgical management of this entity described. The results achieved, a high incidence of testicular salvage, justify this aggressive approach.

Supraclavicular node biopsy in testicular tumors

Fifty-seven patients with germinal cell carcinoma of the testis were evaluated routinely, with the addition of a supraclavicular node biopsy as a final staging procedure. Five patients showed more extensive disease with the addition of this staging modality.

Pelvic lymphadenectomy in stage A prostatic cancer

Pelvic lymphadenectomy as a staging procedure in clinically apparent prostatic adenocarcinoma has long been recognized and its value appreciated. Twenty-three recent cases from the University of Colorado of clinically unapparent carcinoma of the prostate were studied with this modality, 5 Stage A1 and 18 Stage A2 tumors. Four of the 18 Stage A2 tumors but none of the A1 lesions after negative staging procedures revealed metastatic disease to the pelvic lymph nodes. Our experience indicated this modality should be employed in selected cases of incidental adenocarcinoma of the prostate.

Permanent nephrostomy via percutaneous puncture

A technique to convert a standard temporary percutaneous nephrostomy to prolonged or permanent nephrostomy diversion with Foley catheters up to 16F in diameter is described herein. The method has been used for up to 22 months of drainage and is likely to be of principal benefit in the management of obstructive nephropathy in adults when the primary lesion is not readily amenable to repair. There have been no serious complications in our 4 cases.