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Wulf Hanson S, Abbafati C, Aerts JG, Al-Aly Z, Ashbaugh C, Ballouz T, Blyuss O, Bobkova P, Bonsel G, Borzakova S, Buonsenso D, Butnaru D, Carter A, Chu H, De Rose C, Diab MM, Ekbom E, El Tantawi M, Fomin V, Frithiof R, Gamirova A, Glybochko PV, Haagsma JA, Haghjooy Javanmard S, Hamilton EB, Harris G, Heijenbrok-Kal MH, Helbok R, Hellemons ME, Hillus D, Huijts SM, Hultström M, Jassat W, Kurth F, Larsson IM, Lipcsey M, Liu C, Loflin CD, Malinovschi A, Mao W, Mazankova L, McCulloch D, Menges D, Mohammadifard N, Munblit D, Nekliudov NA, Ogbuoji O, Osmanov IM, Peñalvo JL, Petersen MS, Puhan MA, Rahman M, Rass V, Reinig N, Ribbers GM, Ricchiuto A, Rubertsson S, Samitova E, Sarrafzadegan N, Shikhaleva A, Simpson KE, Sinatti D, Soriano JB, Spiridonova E, Steinbeis F, Svistunov AA, Valentini P, van de Water BJ, van den Berg-Emons R, Wallin E, Witzenrath M, Wu Y, Xu H, Zoller T, Adolph C, Albright J, Amlag JO, Aravkin AY, Bang-Jensen BL, Bisignano C, Castellano R, Castro E, Chakrabarti S, Collins JK, Dai X, Daoud F, Dapper C, Deen A, Duncan BB, Erickson M, Ewald SB, Ferrari AJ, Flaxman AD, Fullman N, Gamkrelidze A, Giles JR, Guo G, Hay SI, He J, Helak M, Hulland EN, Kereselidze M, Krohn KJ, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lindstrom A, Lozano R, Malta DC, Månsson J, Mantilla Herrera AM, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Nomura S, Pasovic M, Pigott DM, Reiner RC, Reinke G, Ribeiro ALP, Santomauro DF, Sholokhov A, Spurlock EE, Walcott R, Walker A, Wiysonge CS, Zheng P, Bettger JP, Murray CJL, Vos T. Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. JAMA 2022; 328:1604-1615. [PMID: 36215063 PMCID: PMC9552043 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2022.18931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 262] [Impact Index Per Article: 131.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Accepted: 09/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
Importance Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID). Objective To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration. Design, Setting, and Participants Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022. Exposures Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age. Results A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Wulf Hanson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Cristiana Abbafati
- Department of Juridical and Economic Studies, La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
| | - Joachim G Aerts
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Ziyad Al-Aly
- John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, Missouri
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, US Department of Veterans Affairs, St Louis, Missouri
| | - Charlie Ashbaugh
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Tala Ballouz
- Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Prevention Institute, University of Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Oleg Blyuss
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, England
- Department of Pediatrics and Pediatric Infectious Diseases, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Polina Bobkova
- Clinical Medicine (Pediatric Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Gouke Bonsel
- EuroQol Research Foundation, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Svetlana Borzakova
- Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University, Moscow
- Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management, Moscow Healthcare Department, Moscow, Russia
| | - Danilo Buonsenso
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic IRCCS, Rome, Italy
- Global Health Research Institute, Catholic University of Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy
| | - Denis Butnaru
- I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Austin Carter
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Helen Chu
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Cristina De Rose
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Mohamed Mustafa Diab
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Emil Ekbom
- Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Victor Fomin
- Rector's Office, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Robert Frithiof
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Aysylu Gamirova
- Clinical Medicine (General Medicine Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Petr V Glybochko
- Administration Department, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Juanita A Haagsma
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard
- Applied Physiology Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Erin B Hamilton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Majanka H Heijenbrok-Kal
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Neurorehabilitation, Rijndam Rehabilitation, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Raimund Helbok
- Department of Neurology, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Merel E Hellemons
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - David Hillus
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité Medical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Susanne M Huijts
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Michael Hultström
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Department of Medical Cell Biology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Waasila Jassat
- Department of Public Health Surveillance and Response, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Florian Kurth
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité University Medical Center Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Clinical Research and Tropical Medicine, Bernhard-Nocht Institute of Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Ing-Marie Larsson
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Miklós Lipcsey
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Chelsea Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | | | - Wenhui Mao
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Lyudmila Mazankova
- Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Ministry of Healthcare of the Russian Federation, Moscow
| | | | - Dominik Menges
- Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Prevention Institute, University of Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Noushin Mohammadifard
- Isfahan Cardiovascular Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Daniel Munblit
- Department of Pediatrics and Pediatric Infectious Diseases, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, England
| | - Nikita A Nekliudov
- Clinical Medicine (General Medicine Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Osondu Ogbuoji
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Ismail M Osmanov
- Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University, Moscow
- ZA Bashlyaeva Children's Municipal Clinical Hospital, Moscow, Russia
| | - José L Peñalvo
- Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
- Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Maria Skaalum Petersen
- Department of Occupational Medicine and Public Health, Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn, Faroe Islands
- Centre of Health Science, University of Faroe Islands, Torshavn
| | - Milo A Puhan
- Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Prevention Institute, University of Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Mujibur Rahman
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Verena Rass
- Department of Neurology, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Nickolas Reinig
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Gerard M Ribbers
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Antonia Ricchiuto
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Sten Rubertsson
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Hedenstierna Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Elmira Samitova
- Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Ministry of Healthcare of the Russian Federation, Moscow
- ZA Bashlyaeva Children's Municipal Clinical Hospital, Moscow, Russia
| | - Nizal Sarrafzadegan
- Isfahan Cardiovascular Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Anastasia Shikhaleva
- Clinical Medicine (Pediatric Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Kyle E Simpson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Dario Sinatti
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Joan B Soriano
- Hospital Universitario de La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias (Center for Biomedical Research in Respiratory Diseases Network), Madrid, Spain
| | - Ekaterina Spiridonova
- Clinical Medicine (General Medicine Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Fridolin Steinbeis
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité Medical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Andrey A Svistunov
- Administration Department, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Piero Valentini
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Brittney J van de Water
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Nursing and Midwifery Department, Seed Global Health, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Rita van den Berg-Emons
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Ewa Wallin
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Martin Witzenrath
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité University Medical Center Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- German Center for Lung Research, Berlin
| | - Yifan Wu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hanzhang Xu
- Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Thomas Zoller
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité Medical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Christopher Adolph
- Department of Political Science, University of Washington, Seattle
- Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - James Albright
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Joanne O Amlag
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Bree L Bang-Jensen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Catherine Bisignano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Rachel Castellano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emma Castro
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Suman Chakrabarti
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - James K Collins
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Farah Daoud
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Carolyn Dapper
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Amanda Deen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Bruce B Duncan
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Megan Erickson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Samuel B Ewald
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alize J Ferrari
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Abraham D Flaxman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Nancy Fullman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - John R Giles
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Gaorui Guo
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jiawei He
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Monika Helak
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Erin N Hulland
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Maia Kereselidze
- National Center for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Kris J Krohn
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alice Lazzar-Atwood
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Akiaja Lindstrom
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
- School of Public Health, Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, Australia
| | - Rafael Lozano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Deborah Carvalho Malta
- Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Johan Månsson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ana M Mantilla Herrera
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
- West Moreton Hospital Health Services, Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, Australia
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Shuhei Nomura
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health Policy, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Maja Pasovic
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Grace Reinke
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Centre of Telehealth, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Damian Francesco Santomauro
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
- Policy and Epidemiology Group, Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, Australia
| | - Aleksei Sholokhov
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emma Elizabeth Spurlock
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Rebecca Walcott
- Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ally Walker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Charles Shey Wiysonge
- Cochrane South Africa, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town
- HIV and Other Infectious Diseases Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban
| | - Peng Zheng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Janet Prvu Bettger
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
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Wulf Hanson S, Abbafati C, Aerts JG, Al-Aly Z, Ashbaugh C, Ballouz T, Blyuss O, Bobkova P, Bonsel G, Borzakova S, Buonsenso D, Butnaru D, Carter A, Chu H, De Rose C, Diab MM, Ekbom E, El Tantawi M, Fomin V, Frithiof R, Gamirova A, Glybochko PV, Haagsma JA, Javanmard SH, Hamilton EB, Harris G, Heijenbrok-Kal MH, Helbok R, Hellemons ME, Hillus D, Huijts SM, Hultström M, Jassat W, Kurth F, Larsson IM, Lipcsey M, Liu C, Loflin CD, Malinovschi A, Mao W, Mazankova L, McCulloch D, Menges D, Mohammadifard N, Munblit D, Nekliudov NA, Ogbuoji O, Osmanov IM, Peñalvo JL, Petersen MS, Puhan MA, Rahman M, Rass V, Reinig N, Ribbers GM, Ricchiuto A, Rubertsson S, Samitova E, Sarrafzadegan N, Shikhaleva A, Simpson KE, Sinatti D, Soriano JB, Spiridonova E, Steinbeis F, Svistunov AA, Valentini P, van de Water BJ, van den Berg-Emons R, Wallin E, Witzenrath M, Wu Y, Xu H, Zoller T, Adolph C, Albright J, Amlag JO, Aravkin AY, Bang-Jensen BL, Bisignano C, Castellano R, Castro E, Chakrabarti S, Collins JK, Dai X, Daoud F, Dapper C, Deen A, Duncan BB, Erickson M, Ewald SB, Ferrari AJ, Flaxman AD, Fullman N, Gamkrelidze A, Giles JR, Guo G, Hay SI, He J, Helak M, Hulland EN, Kereselidze M, Krohn KJ, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lindstrom A, Lozano R, Magistro B, Malta DC, Månsson J, Mantilla Herrera AM, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Nomura S, Pasovic M, Pigott DM, Reiner RC, Reinke G, Ribeiro ALP, Santomauro DF, Sholokhov A, Spurlock EE, Walcott R, Walker A, Wiysonge CS, Zheng P, Bettger JP, Murray CJ, Vos T. A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021. medRxiv 2022. [PMID: 35664995 PMCID: PMC9164454 DOI: 10.1101/2022.05.26.22275532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Importance: While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID. Objective: To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery Design: We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study. Results: Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8–312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38–7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9–92.4), 60.4% (18.9–89.1), and 35.4% (9.4–75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84–4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10–9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3–21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms. Conclusions and relevance: The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane.
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Rosettie KL, Joffe JN, Sparks GW, Aravkin A, Chen S, Compton K, Ewald SB, Mathew EB, Michael D, Pedroza Velandia P, Miller-Petrie MB, Stafford L, Zheng P, Weaver MR, Murray CJL. Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0260808. [PMID: 34928971 PMCID: PMC8687557 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260808] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2021] [Accepted: 11/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a well-known, but resource intensive, method for comparing the costs and health outcomes of health interventions. To build on available evidence, researchers are developing methods to transfer CEA across settings; previous methods do not use all available results nor quantify differences across settings. We conducted a meta-regression analysis of published CEAs of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to quantify the effects of factors at the country, intervention, and method-level, and predict incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for HPV vaccination in 195 countries. We used 613 ICERs reported in 75 studies from the Tufts University’s Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry and the Global Health CEA Registry, and extracted an additional 1,215 one-way sensitivity analyses. A five-stage, mixed-effects meta-regression framework was used to predict country-specific ICERs. The probability that HPV vaccination is cost-saving in each country was predicted using a logistic regression model. Covariates for both models included methods and intervention characteristics, and each country’s cervical cancer burden and gross domestic product per capita. ICERs are positively related to vaccine cost, and negatively related to cervical cancer burden. The mean predicted ICER for HPV vaccination is 2017 US$4,217 per DALY averted (95% uncertainty interval (UI): US$773–13,448) globally, and below US$800 per DALY averted in 64 countries. Predicted ICERs are lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with a population-weighted mean ICER across 46 countries of US$706 per DALY averted (95% UI: $130–2,245), and across five countries of US$489 per DALY averted (95% UI: $90–1,557), respectively. Meta-regression analyses can be conducted on CEA, where one-way sensitivity analyses are used to quantify the effects of factors at the intervention and method-level. Building on all published results, our predictions support introducing and expanding HPV vaccination, especially in countries that are eligible for subsidized vaccines from GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, and Pan American Health Organization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine L Rosettie
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Jonah N Joffe
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Gianna W Sparks
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Aleksandr Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.,Departments of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Shirley Chen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Kelly Compton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Samuel B Ewald
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Edwin B Mathew
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Danielle Michael
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Paola Pedroza Velandia
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Molly B Miller-Petrie
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Lauryn Stafford
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Peng Zheng
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Marcia R Weaver
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.,Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.,Department of Health Services, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.,Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.,Department of Health Services, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
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