Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly diagnosed tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. Since an efficient vaccine is not yet available, prevention of transmission is essential. This, in turn, requires a thorough comprehension of the spatiotemporal dynamics of LB transmission as well as underlying drivers. This study aims to identify spatiotemporal trends and unravel environmental and socio-economic covariates of LB incidence in Poland, using consistent monitoring data from 2010 through 2019 obtained for 320 (aggregated) districts. Using yearly LB incidence values, we identified an overall increase in LB incidence from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, we observed a large variation of LB incidences between the Polish districts, with the highest risks of LB in the eastern districts. We applied spatiotemporal Bayesian models in an all-subsets modeling framework to evaluate potential associations between LB incidence and various potentially relevant environmental and socio-economic variables, including climatic conditions as well as characteristics of the vegetation and the density of tick host species. The best-supported spatiotemporal model identified positive relationships between LB incidence and forest cover, the share of parks and green areas, minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and gross primary productivity. A negative relationship was found with human population density. The findings of our study indicate that LB incidence in Poland might increase as a result of ongoing climate change, notably increases in minimum monthly temperature. Our results may aid in the development of targeted prevention strategies.

Environmental drivers of global variation in home range size of terrestrial and marine mammals

As animal home range size (HRS) provides valuable information for species conservation, it is important to understand the driving factors of HRS variation. It is widely known that differences in species traits (e.g. body mass) are major contributors to variation in mammal HRS. However, most studies examining how environmental variation explains mammal HRS variation have been limited to a few species, or only included a single (mean) HRS estimate for the majority of species, neglecting intraspecific HRS variation. Additionally, most studies examining environmental drivers of HRS variation included only terrestrial species, neglecting marine species. Using a novel dataset of 2800 HRS estimates from 586 terrestrial and 27 marine mammal species, we quantified the relationships between HRS and environmental variables, accounting for species traits. Our results indicate that terrestrial mammal HRS was on average 5.3 times larger in areas with low human disturbance (human footprint index [HFI] = 0), compared to areas with maximum human disturbance (HFI = 50). Similarly, HRS was on average 5.4 times larger in areas with low annual mean productivity (NDVI = 0), compared to areas with high productivity (NDVI = 1). In addition, HRS increased by a factor of 1.9 on average from low to high seasonality in productivity (standard deviation (SD) of monthly NDVI from 0 to 0.36). Of these environmental variables, human disturbance and annual mean productivity explained a larger proportion of HRS variance than seasonality in productivity. Marine mammal HRS decreased, on average, by a factor of 3.7 per 10°C decline in annual mean sea surface temperature (SST), and increased by a factor of 1.5 per 1°C increase in SST seasonality (SD of monthly values). Annual mean SST explained more variance in HRS than SST seasonality. Due to the small sample size, caution should be taken when interpreting the marine mammal results. Our results indicate that environmental variation is relevant for HRS and that future environmental changes might alter the HRS of individuals, with potential consequences for ecosystem functioning and the effectiveness of conservation actions.

More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change

Trees are pivotal to global biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, yet accelerating global changes threaten global tree diversity, making accurate species extinction risk assessments necessary. To identify species that require expert-based re-evaluation, we assess exposure to change in six anthropogenic threats over the last two decades for 32,090 tree species. We estimated that over half (54.2%) of the assessed species have been exposed to increasing threats. Only 8.7% of these species are considered threatened by the IUCN Red List, whereas they include more than half of the Data Deficient species (57.8%). These findings suggest a substantial underestimation of threats and associated extinction risk for tree species in current assessments. We also map hotspots of tree species exposed to rapidly changing threats around the world. Our data-driven approach can strengthen the efforts going into expert-based IUCN Red List assessments by facilitating prioritization among species for re-evaluation, allowing for more efficient conservation efforts.

The impact of imidacloprid and thiacloprid on the mean species abundance in aquatic ecosystems

Neonicotinoids are currently the most widely used and sold insecticides in the world, providing effective pest control. Risk assessment of these and other pesticides by lab-based indicators is common. Yet, empirically and theoretically underpinning of extrapolation to indicators used in field surveys is severely limited. Consequently, the aim of our study was to quantify the toxicological and ecological impact of the neonicotinoids imidacloprid and thiacloprid to aquatic invertebrates. We derived Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSDs) based on chronic LC₅₀ data and Mean Species Abundance Relationships (MSARs), comparing these lab-based approaches to field data as well. MSARs are changes in mean species abundance (MSA) as a function of chemical exposure, providing insight into the overall decline of a community. The MSA expresses the mean abundance of species in disturbed conditions relative to their abundance in undisturbed habitat. The medians of the SSD of imidacloprid and thiacloprid for the different species were 16.45 μg/L and 26.40 μg/L, respectively. HC₅₀s of the MSAR of imidacloprid and thiacloprid were 4.25 μg/L and 5.12 μg/L, respectively. The three taxonomic groups tested (insects, crustaceans and mollusks) did not differ significantly in sensitivity for imidacloprid and thiacloprid, both according to the SSDs and MSARs derived. Quantile exposure-response curves (99%-tile) were plotted showing the relative abundance (RA) of aquatic invertebrate species at increasing imidacloprid levels. The 99%-tile of the Relative Abundances (RA₉₉) of species and corresponding imidacloprid concentrations monitored in field surveys in the Netherlands was significantly lower than the Potentially Affected Fraction (PAF) calculated from the SSD. Yet, the MSA was similar to the RA₉₉, suggesting that MSAR is an ecologically meaningful relationship for toxic stress estimated from lab data. Future efforts should be directed to additional empirical underpinning as well as determining the relationship of PAF to other metrics for ecosystem diversity and productivity.

Sediment availability provokes a shift from Brownian to Lévy-like clonal expansion in a dune building grass

In biogeomorphic landscapes, plant traits can steer landscape development through plant-mediated feedback interactions. Interspecific differences in clonal expansion strategy can therefore lead to the emergence of different landscape organisations. Yet, whether landscape-forming plants adopt different clonal expansion strategies depending on their physical environment remains to be tested. Here, we use a field survey and a complementary mesocosm approach to investigate whether sediment deposition affects the clonal expansion strategy employed by dune-building marram grass individuals. Our results reveal a consistent shift in expansion pattern from more clumped, Brownian-like, movement in sediment-poor conditions, to patchier, Lévy-like, movement under high sediment supply rates. Additional model simulations illustrate that the sediment-dependent shift in movement strategies induces a shift in optimisation of the cost-benefit relation between landscape engineering (i.e. dune formation) and expansion. Plasticity in expansion strategy may therefore allow landscape-forming plants to optimise their engineering ability depending on their physical landscape.

Mean Species Abundance as a Measure of Ecotoxicological Risk

Chemical pollution of surface waters is considered an important driver for recent declines in biodiversity. Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are commonly used to evaluate the ecological risks of chemical exposure, accounting for variation in interspecies sensitivity. However, SSDs do not reflect the effects of chemical exposure on species abundance, considered an important endpoint in biological conservation. Although complex population modeling approaches lack practical applicability when it comes to the routine practice of lower tier chemical risk assessment, in the present study we show how information from widely available laboratory toxicity tests can be used to derive the change in mean species abundance (MSA) as a function of chemical exposure. These exposure-response MSA relationships combine insights into intraspecies exposure-response relationships and population growth theory. We showcase the practical applicability of our method for cadmium, copper, and zinc, and include a quantification of the associated statistical uncertainty. For all 3 metals, we found that concentrations hazardous for 5% of the species (HC₅ s) based on MSA relationships are systematically higher than SSD-based HC₅ values. Our proposed framework can be useful to derive abundance-based ecological protective criteria for chemical exposure, and creates the opportunity to assess abundance impacts of chemical exposure in the context of various other anthropogenic stressors. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:2304-2313. © 2020 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

An open source physiologically based kinetic model for the chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus): Calibration and validation for the prediction residues in tissues and eggs

Xenobiotics from anthropogenic and natural origin enter animal feed and human food as regulated compounds, environmental contaminants or as part of components of the diet. After dietary exposure, a chemical is absorbed and distributed systematically to a range of organs and tissues, metabolised, and excreted. Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models have been developed to estimate internal concentrations from external doses. In this study, a generic multi-compartment PBK model was developed for chicken. The PBK model was implemented for seven compounds (with log K_ow range -1.37-6.2) to quantitatively link external dose and internal dose for risk assessment of chemicals. Global sensitivity analysis was performed for a hydrophilic and a lipophilic compound to identify the most sensitive parameters in the PBK model. Model predictions were compared to measured data according to dataset-specific exposure scenarios. Globally, 71% of the model predictions were within a 3-fold change of the measured data for chicken and only 7% of the PBK predictions were outside a 10-fold change. While most model input parameters still rely on in vivo experiments, in vitro data were also used as model input to predict internal concentration of the coccidiostat monensin. Future developments of generic PBK models in chicken and other species of relevance to animal health risk assessment are discussed.

A Lévy expansion strategy optimizes early dune building by beach grasses

Lifeforms ranging from bacteria to humans employ specialized random movement patterns. Although effective as optimization strategies in many scientific fields, random walk application in biology has remained focused on search optimization by mobile organisms. Here, we report on the discovery that heavy-tailed random walks underlie the ability of clonally expanding plants to self-organize and dictate the formation of biogeomorphic landscapes. Using cross-Atlantic surveys, we show that congeneric beach grasses adopt distinct heavy-tailed clonal expansion strategies. Next, we demonstrate with a spatially explicit model and a field experiment that the Lévy-type strategy of the species building the highest dunes worldwide generates a clonal network with a patchy shoot organization that optimizes sand trapping efficiency. Our findings demonstrate Lévy-like movement in plants, and emphasize the role of species-specific expansion strategies in landscape formation. This mechanistic understanding paves the way for tailor-made planting designs to successfully construct and restore biogeomorphic landscapes and their services.

A High-Resolution Spatial Model to Predict Exposure to Pharmaceuticals in European Surface Waters: ePiE

Environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals requires the determination of their environmental exposure concentrations. Existing exposure modeling approaches are often computationally demanding, require extensive data collection and processing efforts, have a limited spatial resolution, and have undergone limited evaluation against monitoring data. Here, we present ePiE (exposure to Pharmaceuticals in the Environment), a spatially explicit model calculating concentrations of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in surface waters across Europe at ∼1 km resolution. ePiE strikes a balance between generating data on exposure at high spatial resolution while having limited computational and data requirements. Comparison of model predictions with measured concentrations of a diverse set of 35 APIs in the river Ouse (UK) and Rhine basins (North West Europe), showed around 95% were within an order of magnitude. Improved predictions were obtained for the river Ouse basin (95% within a factor of 6; 55% within a factor of 2), where reliable consumption data were available and the monitoring study design was coherent with the model outputs. Application of ePiE in a prioritisation exercise for the Ouse basin identified metformin, gabapentin, and acetaminophen as priority when based on predicted exposure concentrations. After incorporation of toxic potency, this changed to desvenlafaxine, loratadine, and hydrocodone.

The value of arterial pressure waveform cardiac output measurements in the radial and femoral artery in major cardiac surgery patients

Background

A relatively new uncalibrated arterial pressure waveform cardiac output (CO) measurement technique is the Pulsioflex-ProAQT® system. Aim of this study was to validate this system in cardiac surgery patients with a specific focus on the evaluation of a difference in the radial versus the femoral arterial access, the value of the auto-calibration modus and the ability to show fluid-induced changes.

Methods

In twenty-five patients scheduled for ascending aorta, aortic arch replacement, or both we measured CO simultaneously by transpulmonary thermodilution (COtd) and by using the ProAQT® system connected to the radial (COpR), as well as the femoral artery catheter (COpF). Hemodynamic data were assessed at predefined time points; from incision until 16 h after ICU admission.

Results

In total 175 (radial) and 179 (femoral) pairs of CO measurement were collected. The accuracy of COpR/COpF was evaluated showing a mean bias of −0.31 L/min (±2.9 L/min) and -0.57 L/min (± 2.8 L/min) with percentage errors of 49 and 46% respectively. Trending ability of the ProAQT® device was evaluated; the four quadrant concordance rates in the radial and femoral artery were 74 and 75% and improved to 77 and 85% after auto-calibration. The mean angular biases in the radial and femoral artery were 6.4° and 6.0° and improved to 5° and 3.3° after auto-calibration. The polar concordance rates in the radial and femoral artery were 65 and 70% and improved to 76 and 84% after auto-calibration. Considering the fluid-induced changes in stroke volume(SV), the coefficient of correlation between the changes in SVtd and SVp was 0.57 (p < 0.01) in the radial artery and 0.60 (p < 0.01) in the femoral artery.

Conclusions

The ProAQT® system can be of additional value if the clinician wants to determine fluid responsiveness in cardiac surgery patients. However, the ProAQT® system provided inaccurate CO measurements compared to transpulmonary thermodilution. The trending ability was poor for COpR but moderate for COpF. Auto-calibration of the system did not improve accuracy of CO measurements nor did it improve the prediction of fluid responsiveness. However, the trending ability was improved by auto-calibration, possibly by correcting a drift over a longer time period.

Perioperative cardiac risk stratification and modification in abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Cardiovascular complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality following vascular surgery. Adequate preoperative risk assessment and perioperative management may modify postoperative mortality and morbidity and improve long-term prognosis. The objective of this review is to examine the present day knowledge regarding the preoperative evaluation and perioperative management of patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, focusing specifically on abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. Clinical markers combined with ECG and surgical risk assessment can effectively divide patients in a truly low-risk, intermediate and high-risk population. Low-risk patients can probably be operated on without additional cardiac testing. Notably, due to the surgical risk, AAA patients are never low-risk patients. Intermediate-risk and high-risk patients are referred for cardiac testing to exclude extensive stress induced myocardial ischemia, as beta-blockers provide insufficient myocardial protection in this case and preoperative coronary revascularization might be considered. Whether patients at intermediate risk without ischemic heart disease should be treated with statins and/or beta-blockers is still controversial. In high-risk patients, it is strongly advised to administer beta-blockers with heart rate determined dose adjustment, while the effects of preoperative revascularization remain subject to debate.

β-Blockers Improve In-hospital and Long-term Survival in Patients with Severe Left Ventricular Dysfunction Undergoing Major Vascular Surgery

OBJECTIVES

To study whether beta-blockers reduce in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) undergoing major vascular surgery.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

MATERIALS

Five hundred and eleven patients with severe LVD (ejection fraction<30%) undergoing major non-cardiac vascular surgery.

METHODS

In all patients, cardiac risk factors, medication (including beta-blockers), and dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) results were noted prior to surgery. DSE was evaluated for rest and stress-induced new wall motion abnormalities. Endpoint was in-hospital and long-term mortality. Propensity scores for beta-blockers were calculated and regression models were used to analyse the relation between beta-blockers and mortality.

RESULTS

Mean age was 64+/-11 years and 383 patients (75%) were male. 139 patients (27%) used beta-blockers. Stress-induced ischemia occurred in 82 patients (16%). Median follow-up was 7 years (interquartile range: 3-10). In-hospital and long-term mortality was observed in 64 (13%) and 171 (33%) patients, respectively. After adjusting for clinical variables, DSE results and propensity scores, beta-blockers were significantly associated with reduced in-hospital and long-term mortality (OR: 0.18, 95% CI: 0.04-0.74 and HR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.22-0.65, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In patients with severe LVD undergoing major vascular surgery, the use of beta-blockers is associated with a reduced incidence of in-hospital and long-term postoperative mortality.