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Roshandel G, Ferlay J, Ghanbari-Motlagh A, Partovipour E, Salavati F, Aryan K, Mohammadi G, Khoshaabi M, Sadjadi A, Davanlou M, Asgari F, Abadi H, Aghaei A, Ahmadi-Tabatabaei SV, Alizadeh-Barzian K, Asgari A, Asgari N, Azami S, Cheraghi M, Enferadi F, Eslami-Nasab M, Fakhery J, Farahani M, Farrokhzad S, Fateh M, Ghasemi A, Ghasemi-Kebria F, Gholami H, Golpazir A, Hasanpour-Heidari S, Hazar N, Hoseini-Hoshyar H, Izadi M, Jahantigh M, Jalilvand A, Jazayeri SM, Kazemzadeh Y, Khajavi M, Khalednejad M, Khanloghi M, Kooshki M, Madani A, Mirheidari M, Mohammadifar H, Moinfar Z, Mojtahedzadeh Y, Morsali A, Motidost-Komleh R, Mousavi T, Narooei M, Nasiri M, Niksiar S, Pabaghi M, Pirnejad H, Pournajaf A, Pourshahi G, Rahnama A, Rashidpoor B, Ravankhah Z, Rezaei K, Rezaianzadeh A, Sadeghi G, Salehifar M, Shahdadi A, Shahi M, Sharifi-Moghaddam F, Sherafati R, Soleimani A, Soltany-Hojatabad M, Somi MH, Yadolahi S, Yaghoubi-Ashrafi M, Zareiyan A, Poustchi H, Zendehdel K, Ostovar A, Janbabaei G, Raeisi A, Weiderpass E, Malekzadeh R, Bray F. Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden. Int J Cancer 2021; 149:594-605. [PMID: 33884608 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2021] [Revised: 02/25/2021] [Accepted: 03/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gholamreza Roshandel
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
- Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry Secretariat, Cancer Office, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), World Health Organization (WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Ali Ghanbari-Motlagh
- National Cancer Management Committee, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elham Partovipour
- Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry Secretariat, Cancer Office, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
| | - Fereshteh Salavati
- Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry Secretariat, Cancer Office, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kimia Aryan
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Gohar Mohammadi
- Cancer Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mostafa Khoshaabi
- Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry Secretariat, Cancer Office, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
| | - Alireza Sadjadi
- Digestive Oncology Research Center, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Fereshteh Asgari
- Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry Secretariat, Cancer Office, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hakimeh Abadi
- Booshehr Cancer Registry, Booshehr University of Medical Sciences, Booshehr, Iran
| | - Abbas Aghaei
- Cancer and Immunology Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | | | | | - Abbasali Asgari
- Shahrekoord Cancer Registry, Shahrekoord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekoord, Iran
| | - Noorali Asgari
- Zabol Cancer Registry, Zabol University of Medical Sciences, Zabol, Iran
| | - Soheyla Azami
- Saveh Cancer Registry, Saveh Faculty of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
| | - Maria Cheraghi
- Cancer Research Center, Cancer Registry Section, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Floria Enferadi
- Khorasan-North Cancer Registry, Khorasan-North University of Medical Sciences, Bojnord, Iran
| | | | - Jila Fakhery
- Khoy Cancer Registry, Khoy Faculty of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran
| | - Mohsen Farahani
- Arak Cancer Registry, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | - Solmaz Farrokhzad
- Qazvin Cancer Registry, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
| | - Mansooreh Fateh
- Center for Health Related Social and Behavioral Sciences Research, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahrood, Iran
| | - Ali Ghasemi
- Birjand Cancer Registry, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran
| | - Fatemeh Ghasemi-Kebria
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Hajar Gholami
- Ardabil Cancer Registry, Ardabil University of Medical Sciences, Ardabil, Iran
| | - Arash Golpazir
- Kermanshah Cancer Registry, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Susan Hasanpour-Heidari
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Narjes Hazar
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
| | | | - Mohsen Izadi
- Gerash Cancer Registry, Gerash Faculty of Medical Sciences, Gerash, Iran
| | - Mahdi Jahantigh
- Zahedan Cancer Registry, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
| | - Ahmad Jalilvand
- Zanjan Cancer Registry, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
| | | | - Yasan Kazemzadeh
- Khomein Cancer Registry, Khomein Faculty of Medical Sciences, Khomein, Iran
| | - Maryam Khajavi
- Dezful Cancer Registry, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Maryam Khalednejad
- Alborz Cancer Registry, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Marziyeh Khanloghi
- Nishabour Cancer Registry, Nishabour Faculty of Medical Sciences, Nishabour, Iran
| | - Maryam Kooshki
- Lorestan Cancer Registry, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khoramabad, Iran
| | - Amineh Madani
- Abadan Cancer Registry, Abadan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran
| | - Mahdi Mirheidari
- Qom Cancer Registry, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | | | - Zeinab Moinfar
- Tehran Cancer Registry, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Ali Morsali
- Asadabad Cancer Registry, Asadabad Faculty of Medical Sciences, Asadabad, Iran
| | | | - Tahereh Mousavi
- Babol Cancer Registry, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Maboobeh Narooei
- Iranshahr Cancer Registry, Iranshahr University of Medical Sciences, Iranshahr, Iran
| | - Mohammad Nasiri
- Shooshtar Cancer Registry, Shooshtar Faculty of Medical Sciences, Shooshtar, Iran
| | - Sharareh Niksiar
- Hamedan Cancer Registry, Hamedan University of Medical Sciences, Hamedan, Iran
| | - Mehdi Pabaghi
- Larestan Cancer Registry, Larestan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Lar, Iran
| | - Habibollah Pirnejad
- Patient Safety Research Center, Clinical Research Institute, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
| | - Azadeh Pournajaf
- Ilam Cancer Registry, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
| | - Gita Pourshahi
- Torbatejam Cancer Registry, Torbatejam Faculty of Medical Sciences, Torbatejam, Iran
| | - Amir Rahnama
- Rafsanjan Cancer Registry, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
| | - Bahman Rashidpoor
- Yasoj Cancer Registry, Yasoj University of Medical Sciences, Yasoj, Iran
| | - Zahra Ravankhah
- Esfahan Cancer Registry, Esfahan University of Medical Sciences, Esfahan, Iran
| | - Khadijeh Rezaei
- Mashhad Cancer Registry, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Abbas Rezaianzadeh
- Shiraz Cancer Registry, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Gholamreza Sadeghi
- Guilan Cancer Registry, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Mohammad Salehifar
- Torbateheidarieh Cancer Registry, Torbateheidarieh University of Medical Sciences, Torbatheidarieh, Iran
| | - Athareh Shahdadi
- Jiroft Cancer Registry, Jiroft University of Medical Sciences, Jiroft, Iran
| | - Mehraban Shahi
- Hormozgan Cancer Registry, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran
| | | | - Roya Sherafati
- Sarab Cancer Registry, Sarab Faculty of Medical Sciences, Sarab, Iran
| | - Ali Soleimani
- Maragheh Cancer Registry, Maragheh Faculty of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | | | - Mohammad-Hossein Somi
- Liver and Gastrointestinal Diseases Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Sohrab Yadolahi
- Semnan Cancer Registry, Semnan University of Medical Sciences, Semnan, Iran
| | | | - Aliakbar Zareiyan
- Jahrom Cancer Registry, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences, Jahrom, Iran
| | - Hossein Poustchi
- Digestive Oncology Research Center, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kazem Zendehdel
- Cancer Research Center, Cancer Institute of Iran, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Afshin Ostovar
- Osteoporosis Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Alireza Raeisi
- Deputy Minister of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Office of the Director, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Oncology Research Center, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), World Health Organization (WHO), Lyon, France
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