Effects of statin therapy on diagnoses of new-onset diabetes and worsening glycaemia in large-scale randomised blinded statin trials: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous meta-analyses of summary data from randomised controlled trials have shown that statin therapy increases the risk of diabetes, but less is known about the size or timing of this effect, or who is at greatest risk. We aimed to address these gaps in knowledge through analysis of individual participant data from large, long-term, randomised, double-blind trials of statin therapy.

METHODS

We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised controlled trials of statin therapy that participated in the CTT Collaboration. All double-blind randomised controlled trials of statin therapy of at least 2 years' scheduled duration and with at least 1000 participants were eligible for inclusion in this meta-analysis. All recorded diabetes-related adverse events, treatments, and measures of glycaemia were sought from eligible trials. Meta-analyses assessed the effects of allocation to statin therapy on new-onset diabetes (defined by diabetes-related adverse events, use of new glucose-lowering medications, glucose concentrations, or HbA1c values) and on worsening glycaemia in people with diabetes (defined by complications of glucose control, increased use of glucose-lowering medication, or HbA1c increase of ≥0·5%). Standard inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses of the effects on these outcomes were conducted according to a prespecified protocol.

FINDINGS

Of the trials participating in the CTT Collaboration, 19 trials compared statin versus placebo (123 940 participants, 25 701 [21%] with diabetes; median follow-up of 4·3 years), and four trials compared more versus less intensive statin therapy (30 724 participants, 5340 [17%] with diabetes, median follow-up of 4·9 years). Compared with placebo, allocation to low-intensity or moderate-intensity statin therapy resulted in a 10% proportional increase in new-onset diabetes (2420 of 39 179 participants assigned to receive a statin [1·3% per year] vs 2214 of 39 266 participants assigned to receive placebo [1·2% per year]; rate ratio [RR] 1·10, 95% CI 1·04-1·16), and allocation to high-intensity statin therapy resulted in a 36% proportional increase (1221 of 9935 participants assigned to receive a statin [4·8% per year] vs 905 of 9859 participants assigned to receive placebo [3·5% per year]; 1·36, 1·25-1·48). For each trial, the rate of new-onset diabetes among participants allocated to receive placebo depended mostly on the proportion of participants who had at least one follow-up HbA1c measurement; this proportion was much higher in the high-intensity than the low-intensity or moderate-intensity trials. Consequently, the main determinant of the magnitude of the absolute excesses in the two types of trial was the extent of HbA1c measurement rather than the proportional increase in risk associated with statin therapy. In participants without baseline diabetes, mean glucose increased by 0·04 mmol/L with both low-intensity or moderate-intensity (95% CI 0·03-0·05) and high-intensity statins (0·02-0·06), and mean HbA1c increased by 0·06% (0·00-0·12) with low-intensity or moderate-intensity statins and 0·08% (0·07-0·09) with high-intensity statins. Among those with a baseline measure of glycaemia, approximately 62% of new-onset diabetes cases were among participants who were already in the top quarter of the baseline distribution. The relative effects of statin therapy on new-onset diabetes were similar among different types of participants and over time. Among participants with baseline diabetes, the RRs for worsening glycaemia were 1·10 (1·06-1·14) for low-intensity or moderate-intensity statin therapy and 1·24 (1·06-1·44) for high-intensity statin therapy compared with placebo.

INTERPRETATION

Statins cause a moderate dose-dependent increase in new diagnoses of diabetes that is consistent with a small upwards shift in glycaemia, with the majority of new diagnoses of diabetes occurring in people with baseline glycaemic markers that are close to the diagnostic threshold for diabetes. Importantly, however, any theoretical adverse effects of statins on cardiovascular risk that might arise from these small increases in glycaemia (or, indeed, from any other mechanism) are already accounted for in the overall reduction in cardiovascular risk that is seen with statin therapy in these trials. These findings should further inform clinical guidelines regarding clinical management of people taking statin therapy.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Complex percutaneous coronary intervention in patients unable to undergo coronary artery bypass grafting during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from the UK-ReVasc Registry

OBJECTIVES

Cardiac surgery for coronary artery disease was dramatically reduced during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many patients with disease ordinarily treated with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) instead underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We sought to describe 12-month outcomes following PCI in patients who would typically have undergone CABG.

METHODS

Between March 1 and July 31, 2020, patients who received revascularization with PCI when CABG would have been the primary choice of revascularization were enrolled in the prospective, multicenter UK-ReVasc Registry. We evaluated the following major adverse cardiovascular events at 12 months: all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, repeat revascularization, stroke, major bleeding, and stent thrombosis.

RESULTS

A total of 215 patients were enrolled across 45 PCI centers in the United Kingdom. Twelve-month follow up data were obtained for 97% of the cases. There were 9 deaths (4.3%), 5 myocardial infarctions (2.4%), 12 repeat revascularizations (5.7%), 1 stroke (0.5%), 3 major bleeds (1.4%), and no cases of stent thrombosis. No difference in the primary endpoint was observed between patients who received complete vs incomplete revascularization (residual SYNTAX score £ 8 vs > 8) (P = .22).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with patterns of coronary disease in whom CABG would have been the primary therapeutic choice outside of the pandemic, PCI was associated with acceptable outcomes at 12 months of follow-up. Contemporary randomized trials that compare PCI to CABG in such patient cohorts may be warranted.

Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model

BACKGROUND

UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist.

AIM

To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys.

METHOD

A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles.

RESULTS

Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Determining a risk-proportionate approach to the validation of statistical programming for clinical trials

BACKGROUND

The contribution of the statistician to the design and analysis of a clinical trial is acknowledged as essential. Ability to reconstruct the statistical contribution to a trial requires rigorous and transparent documentation as evidenced by the reproducibility of results. The process of validating statistical programmes is a key requirement. While guidance relating to software development and life cycle methodologies details steps for validation by information systems developers, there is no guidance applicable to programmes written by statisticians. We aimed to develop a risk-based approach to the validation of statistical programming that would support scientific integrity and efficient resource use within clinical trials units.

METHODS

The project was embedded within the Information Systems Operational Group and the Statistics Operational Group of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration Registered Clinical Trials Unit network. Members were asked to share materials relevant to validation of statistical programming. A review of the published literature, regulatory guidance and knowledge of relevant working groups was undertaken. Surveys targeting the Information Systems Operational Group and Statistics Operational Group were developed to determine current practices across the Registered Clinical Trials Unit network. A risk-based approach was drafted and used as a basis for a workshop with representation from statisticians, information systems developers and quality assurance managers (n = 15). The approach was subsequently modified and presented at a second, larger scale workshop (n = 47) to gain a wider perspective, with discussion of content and implications for delivery. The approach was revised based on the discussions and suggestions made. The workshop was attended by a member of the Medicines for Healthcare products Regulatory Agency Inspectorate who also provided comments on the revised draft.

RESULTS

Types of statistical programming were identified and categorised into six areas: generation of randomisation lists; programmes to explore/understand the data; data cleaning, including complex checks; derivations including data transformations; data monitoring; or interim and final analysis. The risk-based approach considers each category of statistical programme against the impact of an error and its likelihood, whether the programming can be fully prespecified, the need for repeated use and the need for reproducibility. Approaches to the validation of programming within each category are proposed.

CONCLUSION

We have developed a risk-based approach to the validation of statistical programming. It endeavours to facilitate the implementation of targeted quality assurance measures while making efficient use of limited resources.

Randomized Trial-PrEscription of intraDialytic exercise to improve quAlity of Life in Patients Receiving Hemodialysis

Introduction

Whether clinically implementable exercise interventions in people receiving hemodialysis (HD) therapy improve health-related quality of life (HRQoL) remains unknown. The PrEscription of intraDialytic exercise to improve quAlity of Life (PEDAL) study evaluated the clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of a 6-month intradialytic exercise program.

Methods

In a multicenter, single-blinded, randomized, controlled trial, people receiving HD were randomly assigned to (i) intradialytic exercise training (exercise intervention group [EX]) and (ii) usual care (control group [CON]). Primary outcome was change in Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short-Form Physical Component Summary (KDQOL-SF 1.3 PCS) from baseline to 6 months. Cost-effectiveness was determined using health economic analysis; physiological impairment was evaluated by peak oxygen uptake; and harms were recorded.

Results

We randomized 379 participants; 335 and 243 patients (EX n = 127; CON n = 116) completed baseline and 6-month assessments, respectively. Mean difference in change PCS from baseline to 6 months between EX and CON was 2.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.1 to 4.8) arbitrary units (P = 0.055); no improvements were observed in peak oxygen uptake or secondary outcome measures. Participants in the intervention group had poor compliance (47%) and poor adherence (18%) to the exercise prescription. Cost of delivering intervention ranged from US$598 to US$1092 per participant per year. The number of participants with harms was similar between EX (n = 69) and CON (n = 56). A primary limitation was the lack of an attention CON. Many patients also withdrew from the study or were too unwell to complete all physiological outcome assessments.

Conclusions

A 6-month intradialytic aerobic exercise program was not clinically beneficial in improving HRQoL as delivered to this cohort of deconditioned patients on HD.

International Prospective Registry of Acute Coronary Syndromes in Patients With COVID-19

Background

Published data suggest worse outcomes in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients and concurrent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Mechanisms remain unclear.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to report the demographics, angiographic findings, and in-hospital outcomes of COVID-19 ACS patients and compare these with pre–COVID-19 cohorts.

Methods

From March 1, 2020 to July 31, 2020, data from 55 international centers were entered into a prospective, COVID-ACS Registry. Patients were COVID-19 positive (or had a high index of clinical suspicion) and underwent invasive coronary angiography for suspected ACS. Outcomes were in-hospital major cardiovascular events (all-cause mortality, re–myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, unplanned revascularization, or stent thrombosis). Results were compared with national pre–COVID-19 databases (MINAP [Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project] 2019 and BCIS [British Cardiovascular Intervention Society] 2018 to 2019).

Results

In 144 ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 121 non–ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) patients, symptom-to-admission times were significantly prolonged (COVID-STEMI vs. BCIS: median 339.0 min vs. 173.0 min; p < 0.001; COVID NSTE-ACS vs. MINAP: 417.0 min vs. 295.0 min; p = 0.012). Mortality in COVID-ACS patients was significantly higher than BCIS/MINAP control subjects in both subgroups (COVID-STEMI: 22.9% vs. 5.7%; p < 0.001; COVID NSTE-ACS: 6.6% vs. 1.2%; p < 0.001), which remained following multivariate propensity analysis adjusting for comorbidities (STEMI subgroup odds ratio: 3.33 [95% confidence interval: 2.04 to 5.42]). Cardiogenic shock occurred in 20.1% of COVID-STEMI patients versus 8.7% of BCIS patients (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

In this multicenter international registry, COVID-19–positive ACS patients presented later and had increased in-hospital mortality compared with a pre–COVID-19 ACS population. Excessive rates of and mortality from cardiogenic shock were major contributors to the worse outcomes in COVID-19 positive STEMI patients.

Outcomes following PCI in CABG candidates during the COVID-19 pandemic: The prospective multicentre UK-ReVasc registry

Objectives

To describe outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients who would usually have undergone coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

Background

In the United Kingdom, cardiac surgery for coronary artery disease (CAD) was dramatically reduced during the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Many patients with “surgical disease” instead underwent PCI.

Methods

Between 1 March 2020 and 31 July 2020, 215 patients with recognized “surgical” CAD who underwent PCI were enrolled in the prospective UK‐ReVasc Registry (ReVR). 30‐day major cardiovascular event outcomes were collected. Findings in ReVR patients were directly compared to reference PCI and isolated CABG pre‐COVID‐19 data from British Cardiovascular Intervention Society (BCIS) and National Cardiac Audit Programme (NCAP) databases.

Results

ReVR patients had higher incidence of diabetes (34.4% vs 26.4%, P = .008), multi‐vessel disease with left main stem disease (51.4% vs 3.0%, P < .001) and left anterior descending artery involvement (94.8% vs 67.2%, P < .001) compared to BCIS data. SYNTAX Score in ReVR was high (mean 28.0). Increased use of transradial access (93.3% vs 88.6%, P = .03), intracoronary imaging (43.6% vs 14.4%, P < .001) and calcium modification (23.6% vs 3.5%, P < .001) was observed. No difference in in‐hospital mortality was demonstrated compared to PCI and CABG data (ReVR 1.4% vs BCIS 0.7%, P = .19; vs NCAP 1.0%, P = .48). Inpatient stay was half compared to CABG (3.0 vs 6.0 days). Low‐event rates in ReVR were maintained to 30‐day follow‐up.

Conclusions

PCI undertaken using contemporary techniques produces excellent short‐term results in patients who would be otherwise CABG candidates. Longer‐term follow‐up is essential to determine whether these outcomes are maintained over time.

The Chief Scientist Office Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Imaging in SARS Coronavirus disease-19 (CISCO-19) study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is typically a primary respiratory illness with multisystem involvement. The prevalence and clinical significance of cardiovascular and multisystem involvement in COVID-19 remain unclear.

METHODS

This is a prospective, observational, multicentre, longitudinal, cohort study with minimal selection criteria and a near-consecutive approach to screening. Patients who have received hospital care for COVID-19 will be enrolled within 28 days of discharge. Myocardial injury will be diagnosed according to the peak troponin I in relation to the upper reference limit (URL, 99th centile) (Abbott Architect troponin I assay; sex-specific URL, male: >34 ng/L; female: >16 ng/L). Multisystem, multimodality imaging will be undertaken during the convalescent phase at 28 days post-discharge (Visit 2). Imaging of the heart, lung, and kidneys will include multiparametric, stress perfusion, cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging, and computed tomography coronary angiography. Health and well-being will be assessed in the longer term. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients with a diagnosis of myocardial inflammation.

CONCLUSION

CISCO-19 will provide detailed insights into cardiovascular and multisystem involvement of COVID-19. Our study will inform the rationale and design of novel therapeutic and management strategies for affected patients.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04403607.

A comparison of machine learning models for predicting rehospitalisation and death after a first hospitalisation with heart failure

Background

Many machine learning models exist, including Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest algorithm (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Gradient Boosted Machine (GBM), but their value for predicting outcome in patients with heart failure has not been compared.

Aim

To predict rehospitalisation (all-cause) and death (all-cause) at 1-, 3- and 12 months after discharge from a first hospitalisation for heart failure using four machine learning models.

Methods

The National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board serves a population of ∼1.1 million. We obtained de-identified administrative data, including investigations, diagnosis and prescriptions, linked to hospital admissions and deaths for anyone with a diagnosis of vascular disease or heart failure or prescribed loop diuretics, statins or neuro-endocrine antagonists at any time between 1st January 2010 and 1st June 2018. Patients who were under 18 or had no prior hospitalisation for heart failure were excluded. Four ML algorithms using 46 variables were applied.

Results

Of 360,000 people who met the above criteria between 2010–2018, 6,372 had a hospitalisation for heart failure prior to 1st January 2010 and 8,304 had a first hospitalisation for heart failure thereafter. Between 2010 and 2018 there were 3,086 re-hospitalisations over 24 hours and 3,706 patients died, with 5,070 patients experiencing the composite outcome.

GBM and RF consistently outperformed MLP and SVM when comparing AUC, sensitivity and specificity combined, with GBM performing best in all scenarios. Since GBM and RF are both tree-based models, and with SVM and MLP regularly reporting very poor sensitivity or specificity despite a similar AUC to the others, this suggests that SVM and MLP may be suffering from overfitting and might perform better in larger data-sets.

Both GBM and RF work by ordering variables, so the final model can be used to determine the most important prediction variables. Age, number of times a blood sample was taken out of hospital, length of stay, social deprivation index and haemoglobin concentration consistently ranked amongst the most important variables. Models predicted all 1-month events better than later events.

Conclusions

Some, but not all, ML models applied to this data-set predicted rehospitalisation and death with great accuracy for up to 3 months after a first hospitalisation for heart failure. The models identified several important prognostic variables that are currently seldom collected in clinical research registries but perhaps should be.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council

Population prevalence of atrial fibrillation and QRS prolongation and mortality in people with suspected heart failure

Background

The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is an essential tool for the diagnosis and management of heart failure (HF). There are few population-based studies on the prevalence and prognostic implications of ECG abnormalities in patients with HF. There are also no robust diagnostic criteria for HF. We explored these issues in a large administrative database.

Methods

The National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board serves a population of ∼1.1 million. We obtained de-identified administrative data, including investigations, diagnosis and prescriptions, linked to hospital admissions and deaths, for anyone with a diagnosis of vascular disease or HF or prescribed loop diuretics (LD) or neuro-endocrine antagonists between 1st January 2012 and 1st April 2018. People were classified into 5 exclusive groups: a) prevalent HF; b) incident (or latent) HF with onset during follow-up; c) people taking LDs but with no diagnosis of HF at any time; d) new prescription of LDs during follow-up but with no diagnosis of HF at any time and d) people to whom none of the above applied. ECGs were classified according to heart rhythm (sinus, AF or flutter or pacemaker/CRT/ICD) and QRS duration &lt;100ms, 100–130ms or &gt;130ms. Follow-up for each group started on 1st of January 2012 (prior to the onset of the classifying event for incident groups).

Results

During the observation period, of 316,350 people included, 158,421 had a recorded ECG (mean of 3.2 per person with an ECG), including 8,768 prevalent and 13,195 incident cases of HF. Of those who never got a diagnosis of heart failure, 11,508 were receiving and a further 14,633 were newly prescribed LD during follow-up. There were 110,317 people who did not fall into the above groups, of whom 51,089 were aged ≥60 years. A higher proportion of those who were prescribed loop diuretics without a diagnosis of heart failure were women. A similar proportion of those with heart failure and those prescribed diuretics alone had, lung disease and renal dysfunction but patients with heart failure had more ischaemic heart disease, more often had a heart rhythm other than sinus and had longer QRS duration. By three years, 8,816 people (11%) had died, of whom 2,919 (33%) had a diagnosis of heart failure and 2,694 (31%) had been prescribed LD without a diagnosis of HF, together accounting for 64% of all deaths. Patients with a rhythm other than sinus had a worse prognosis in all 5 groups of patients. QRS duration &gt;130ms was associated with a worse prognosis in patients with HF or taking LD.

Conclusions

Most people with cardiovascular disease who die will first develop HF or be prescribed a LD (indicating possible undiagnosed HF). Patient characteristics of those prescribed LD suggest that many might have HF with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (HFpEF).

Baseline characteristics and HR

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

The PrEscription of intraDialytic exercise to improve quAlity of Life in patients with chronic kidney disease trial: study design and baseline data for a multicentre randomized controlled trial

Background

Exercise interventions designed to improve physical function and reduce sedentary behaviour in haemodialysis (HD) patients might improve exercise capacity, reduce fatigue and lead to improved quality of life (QOL). The PrEscription of intraDialytic exercise to improve quAlity of Life study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a 6-month intradialytic exercise programme on QOL and physical function, compared with usual care for patients on HD in the UK.

Methods

We conducted a prospective, pragmatic multicentre randomized controlled trial in 335 HD patients and randomly (1:1) assigned them to either (i) intradialytic exercise training plus usual care maintenance HD or (ii) usual care maintenance HD. The primary outcome of the study was the change in Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form (KDQOL-SF 1.3) Physical Component Score between baseline and 6 months. Additional secondary outcomes included changes in peak aerobic capacity, physical fitness, habitual physical activity levels and falls (International Physical Activity Questionnaire, Duke’s Activity Status Index and Tinetti Falls Efficacy Scale), QOL and symptom burden assessments (EQ5D), arterial stiffness (pulse wave velocity), anthropometric measures, resting blood pressure, clinical chemistry, safety and harms associated with the intervention, hospitalizations and cost-effectiveness. A nested qualitative study investigated the experience and acceptability of the intervention for both participants and members of the renal health care team.

Results

At baseline assessment, 62.4% of the randomized cohort were male, the median age was 59.3 years and 50.4% were white. Prior cerebrovascular events and myocardial infarction were present in 8 and 12% of the cohort, respectively, 77.9% of patients had hypertension and 39.4% had diabetes. Baseline clinical characteristics and laboratory data for the randomized cohort were generally concordant with data from the UK Renal Registry.

Conclusion

The results from this study will address a significant knowledge gap in the prescription of exercise interventions for patients receiving maintenance HD therapy and inform the development of intradialytic exercise programmes both nationally and internationally.

Trial Registration

ISRCTN N83508514; registered on 17 December 2014.

Association Between Levothyroxine Treatment and Thyroid-Related Symptoms Among Adults Aged 80 Years and Older With Subclinical Hypothyroidism

IMPORTANCE

It is unclear whether levothyroxine treatment provides clinically important benefits in adults aged 80 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association of levothyroxine treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism with thyroid-related quality of life in adults aged 80 years and older.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospectively planned combined analysis of data involving community-dwelling adults aged 80 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism. Data from a randomized clinical trial were combined with a subgroup of participants aged 80 years and older from a second clinical trial. The trials were conducted between April 2013 and May 2018. Final follow-up was May 4, 2018.

EXPOSURES

Participants were randomly assigned to receive levothyroxine (n = 112; 52 participants from the first trial and 60 from the second trial) or placebo (n = 139; 53 participants from the first trial and 86 from the second trial).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Co-primary outcomes were Thyroid-Related Quality of Life Patient-Reported Outcome (ThyPRO) questionnaire scores for the domains of hypothyroid symptoms and tiredness at 1 year (range, 0-100; higher scores indicate worse quality of life; minimal clinically important difference, 9).

RESULTS

Of 251 participants (mean age, 85 years; 118 [47%] women), 105 were included from the first clinical trial and 146 were included from the second clinical trial. A total of 212 participants (84%) completed the study. The hypothyroid symptoms score decreased from 21.7 at baseline to 19.3 at 12 months in the levothyroxine group vs from 19.8 at baseline to 17.4 at 12 months in the placebo group (adjusted between-group difference, 1.3 [95% CI, -2.7 to 5.2]; P = .53). The tiredness score increased from 25.5 at baseline to 28.2 at 12 months in the levothyroxine group vs from 25.1 at baseline to 28.7 at 12 months in the placebo group (adjusted between-group difference, -0.1 [95% CI, -4.5 to 4.3]; P = .96). At least 1 adverse event occurred in 33 participants (29.5%) in the levothyroxine group (the most common adverse event was cerebrovascular accident, which occurred in 3 participants [2.2%]) and 40 participants (28.8%) in the placebo group (the most common adverse event was pneumonia, which occurred in 4 [3.6%] participants).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this prospectively planned analysis of data from 2 clinical trials involving adults aged 80 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism, treatment with levothyroxine, compared with placebo, was not significantly associated with improvement in hypothyroid symptoms or fatigue. These findings do not support routine use of levothyroxine for treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism in adults aged 80 years and older.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01660126; Netherlands Trial Register: NTR3851.

Durability of a primary care-led weight-management intervention for remission of type 2 diabetes: 2-year results of the DiRECT open-label, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The DiRECT trial assessed remission of type 2 diabetes during a primary care-led weight-management programme. At 1 year, 68 (46%) of 149 intervention participants were in remission and 36 (24%) had achieved at least 15 kg weight loss. The aim of this 2-year analysis is to assess the durability of the intervention effect.

METHODS

DiRECT is an open-label, cluster-randomised, controlled trial done at primary care practices in the UK. Practices were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated list to provide an integrated structured weight-management programme (intervention) or best-practice care in accordance with guidelines (control), with stratification for study site (Tyneside or Scotland) and practice list size (>5700 or ≤5700 people). Allocation was concealed from the study statisticians; participants, carers, and study research assistants were aware of allocation. We recruited individuals aged 20-65 years, with less than 6 years' duration of type 2 diabetes, BMI 27-45 kg/m², and not receiving insulin between July 25, 2014, and Aug 5, 2016. The intervention consisted of withdrawal of antidiabetes and antihypertensive drugs, total diet replacement (825-853 kcal per day formula diet for 12-20 weeks), stepped food reintroduction (2-8 weeks), and then structured support for weight-loss maintenance. The coprimary outcomes, analysed hierarchically in the intention-to-treat population at 24 months, were weight loss of at least 15 kg, and remission of diabetes, defined as HbA_1c less than 6·5% (48 mmol/mol) after withdrawal of antidiabetes drugs at baseline (remission was determined independently at 12 and 24 months). The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number 03267836, and follow-up is ongoing.

FINDINGS

The intention-to-treat population consisted of 149 participants per group. At 24 months, 17 (11%) intervention participants and three (2%) control participants had weight loss of at least 15 kg (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7·49, 95% CI 2·05 to 27·32; p=0·0023) and 53 (36%) intervention participants and five (3%) control participants had remission of diabetes (aOR 25·82, 8·25 to 80·84; p<0·0001). The adjusted mean difference between the control and intervention groups in change in bodyweight was -5·4 kg (95% CI -6·9 to -4·0; p<0·0001) and in HbA_1c was -4·8 mmol/mol (-8·3 to -1·4 [-0·44% (-0·76 to -0·13)]; p=0·0063), despite only 51 (40%) of 129 patients in the intervention group using anti-diabetes medication compared with 120 (84%) of 143 in the control group. In a post-hoc analysis of the whole study population, of those participants who maintained at least 10 kg weight loss (45 of 272 with data), 29 (64%) achieved remission; 36 (24%) of 149 participants in the intervention group maintained at least 10 kg weight loss. Serious adverse events were similar to those reported at 12 months, but were fewer in the intervention group than in the control group in the second year of the study (nine vs 22).

INTERPRETATION

The DiRECT programme sustained remissions at 24 months for more than a third of people with type 2 diabetes. Sustained remission was linked to the extent of sustained weight loss.

FUNDING

Diabetes UK.

Efficacy and safety of statin therapy in older people: a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 28 randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Statin therapy has been shown to reduce major vascular events and vascular mortality in a wide range of individuals, but there is uncertainty about its efficacy and safety among older people. We undertook a meta-analysis of data from all large statin trials to compare the effects of statin therapy at different ages.

METHODS

In this meta-analysis, randomised trials of statin therapy were eligible if they aimed to recruit at least 1000 participants with a scheduled treatment duration of at least 2 years. We analysed individual participant data from 22 trials (n=134 537) and detailed summary data from one trial (n=12 705) of statin therapy versus control, plus individual participant data from five trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (n=39 612). We subdivided participants into six age groups (55 years or younger, 56-60 years, 61-65 years, 66-70 years, 71-75 years, and older than 75 years). We estimated effects on major vascular events (ie, major coronary events, strokes, and coronary revascularisations), cause-specific mortality, and cancer incidence as the rate ratio (RR) per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. We compared proportional risk reductions in different age subgroups by use of standard χ2 tests for heterogeneity when there were two groups, or trend when there were more than two groups.

FINDINGS

14 483 (8%) of 186 854 participants in the 28 trials were older than 75 years at randomisation, and the median follow-up duration was 4·9 years. Overall, statin therapy or a more intensive statin regimen produced a 21% (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·77-0·81) proportional reduction in major vascular events per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. We observed a significant reduction in major vascular events in all age groups. Although proportional reductions in major vascular events diminished slightly with age, this trend was not statistically significant (ptrend=0·06). Overall, statin or more intensive therapy yielded a 24% (RR 0·76, 95% CI 0·73-0·79) proportional reduction in major coronary events per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, and with increasing age, we observed a trend towards smaller proportional risk reductions in major coronary events (ptrend=0·009). We observed a 25% (RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·73-0·78) proportional reduction in the risk of coronary revascularisation procedures with statin therapy or a more intensive statin regimen per 1·0 mmol/L lower LDL cholesterol, which did not differ significantly across age groups (ptrend=0·6). Similarly, the proportional reductions in stroke of any type (RR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80-0·89) did not differ significantly across age groups (ptrend=0·7). After exclusion of four trials which enrolled only patients with heart failure or undergoing renal dialysis (among whom statin therapy has not been shown to be effective), the trend to smaller proportional risk reductions with increasing age persisted for major coronary events (ptrend=0·01), and remained non-significant for major vascular events (ptrend=0·3). The proportional reduction in major vascular events was similar, irrespective of age, among patients with pre-existing vascular disease (ptrend=0·2), but appeared smaller among older than among younger individuals not known to have vascular disease (ptrend=0·05). We found a 12% (RR 0·88, 95% CI 0·85-0·91) proportional reduction in vascular mortality per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, with a trend towards smaller proportional reductions with older age (ptrend=0·004), but this trend did not persist after exclusion of the heart failure or dialysis trials (ptrend=0·2). Statin therapy had no effect at any age on non-vascular mortality, cancer death, or cancer incidence.

INTERPRETATION

Statin therapy produces significant reductions in major vascular events irrespective of age, but there is less direct evidence of benefit among patients older than 75 years who do not already have evidence of occlusive vascular disease. This limitation is now being addressed by further trials.

FUNDING

Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation.

The effect of a programme to improve men's sedentary time and physical activity: The European Fans in Training (EuroFIT) randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Reducing sitting time as well as increasing physical activity in inactive people is beneficial for their health. This paper investigates the effectiveness of the European Fans in Training (EuroFIT) programme to improve physical activity and sedentary time in male football fans, delivered through the professional football setting.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A total of 1,113 men aged 30-65 with self-reported body mass index (BMI) ≥27 kg/m2 took part in a randomised controlled trial in 15 professional football clubs in England, the Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal. Recruitment was between September 19, 2015, and February 2, 2016. Participants consented to study procedures and provided usable activity monitor baseline data. They were randomised, stratified by club, to either the EuroFIT intervention or a 12-month waiting list comparison group. Follow-up measurement was post-programme and 12 months after baseline. EuroFIT is a 12-week, group-based programme delivered by coaches in football club stadia in 12 weekly 90-minute sessions. Weekly sessions aimed to improve physical activity, sedentary time, and diet and maintain changes long term. A pocket-worn device (SitFIT) allowed self-monitoring of sedentary time and daily steps, and a game-based app (MatchFIT) encouraged between-session social support. Primary outcome (objectively measured sedentary time and physical activity) measurements were obtained for 83% and 85% of intervention and comparison participants. Intention-to-treat analyses showed a baseline-adjusted mean difference in sedentary time at 12 months of -1.6 minutes/day (97.5% confidence interval [CI], -14.3-11.0; p = 0.77) and in step counts of 678 steps/day (97.5% CI, 309-1.048; p < 0.001) in favor of the intervention. There were significant improvements in diet, weight, well-being, self-esteem, vitality, and biomarkers of cardiometabolic health in favor of the intervention group, but not in quality of life. There was a 0.95 probability of EuroFIT being cost-effective compared with the comparison group if society is willing to pay £1.50 per extra step/day, a maximum probability of 0.61 if society is willing to pay £1,800 per minute less sedentary time/day, and 0.13 probability if society is willing to pay £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). It was not possible to blind participants to group allocation. Men attracted to the programme already had quite high levels of physical activity at baseline (8,372 steps/day), which may have limited room for improvement. Although participants came from across the socioeconomic spectrum, a majority were well educated and in paid work. There was an increase in recent injuries and in upper and lower joint pain scores post-programme. In addition, although the five-level EuroQoL questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) is now the preferred measure for cost-effectiveness analyses across Europe, baseline scores were high (0.93), suggesting a ceiling effect for QALYs.

CONCLUSION

Participation in EuroFIT led to improvements in physical activity, diet, body weight, and biomarkers of cardiometabolic health, but not in sedentary time at 12 months. Within-trial analysis suggests it is not cost-effective in the short term for QALYs due to a ceiling effect in quality of life. Nevertheless, decision-makers may consider the incremental cost for increase in steps worth the investment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials, ISRCTN-81935608.

Study protocol: a randomised controlled trial on the clinical effects of levothyroxine treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism in people aged 80 years and over

BACKGROUND

Subclinical hypothyroidism is common in older people and its contribution to health and disease needs to be elucidated further. Observational and clinical trial data on the clinical effects of subclinical hypothyroidism in persons aged 80 years and over is inconclusive, with some studies suggesting harm and some suggesting benefits, translating into equipoise whether levothyroxine therapy provides clinical benefits. This manuscript describes the study protocol for the Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age (IEMO) 80-plus thyroid trial to generate the necessary evidence base.

METHODS

The IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial was explicitly designed as an ancillary experiment to the Thyroid hormone Replacement for Untreated older adults with Subclinical hypothyroidism randomised placebo controlled Trial (TRUST) with a near identical protocol and shared research infrastructure. Outcomes will be presented separately for the IEMO and TRUST 80-plus groups, as well as a pre-planned combined analysis of the 145 participants included in the IEMO trial and the 146 participants from the TRUST thyroid trial aged 80 years and over. The IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial is a multi-centre randomised double-blind placebo-controlled parallel group trial of levothyroxine treatment in community-dwelling participants aged 80 years and over with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.6 and ≤ 19.9 mU/L and fT4 within laboratory reference ranges). Participants are randomised to levothyroxine 25 or 50 micrograms daily or matching placebo with dose titrations according to TSH levels, for a minimum follow-up of one and a maximum of three years. Primary study endpoints: hypothyroid physical symptoms and tiredness on the thyroid-related quality of life patient-reported outcome (ThyPRO) at one year. Secondary endpoints: generic quality of life, executive cognitive function, handgrip strength, functional ability, blood pressure, weight, body mass index, and mortality. Adverse events will be recorded with specific interest on cardiovascular endpoints such as atrial fibrillation and heart failure.

DISCUSSION

The combined analysis of participants in the IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial with the participants aged over 80 in the TRUST trial will provide the largest experimental evidence base on multimodal effects of levothyroxine treatment in 80-plus persons to date.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Nederlands (Dutch) Trial Register: NTR3851 (12-02-2013), EudraCT: 2012-004160-22 (17-02-2013), ABR-41259.058.13 (12-02-2013).

Xanthine oxidase inhibition for the improvement of long-term outcomes following ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack (XILO-FIST) - Protocol for a randomised double blind placebo-controlled clinical trial

Background

Allopurinol, a xanthine oxidase inhibitor, reduced progression of carotid-intima media thickness and lowered blood pressure in a small clinical trial in people with ischaemic stroke. Xanthine oxidase inhibition for improvement of long-term outcomes following ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack (XILO-FIST) aims to assess the effect of allopurinol treatment on white matter hyperintensity progression and blood pressure after stroke. This paper describes the XILO-FIST protocol.

Methods

XILO-FIST is a multicentre randomised double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group clinical trial funded by the British Heart Foundation and the Stroke Association. The trial has been adopted by the Scottish Stroke Research Network and the UK Clinical Research Network. The trial is registered in clinicaltrials.gov (registration number NCT02122718). XILO-FIST will randomise 464 participants, aged greater than 50 years, with ischaemic stroke within the past month, on a 1:1 basis, to two years treatment with allopurinol 300 mg twice daily or placebo. Participants will undergo brain magnetic resonance imaging, cognitive assessment, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and blood sampling at baseline and after two years treatment. The primary outcome will be white matter hyperintensity progression, measured using the Rotterdam progression scale. Secondary outcomes will include change in white matter hyperintensity volume, mean day-time systolic blood pressure and measures of cognitive function. Up to 100 will undergo additional cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in a sub-study of left ventricular mass.

Discussion

If white matter hyperintensity progression is reduced, allopurinol could be an effective preventative treatment for patients with ischaemic stroke and clinical endpoint studies would be needed. If allopurinol reduces blood pressure after stroke, then it could be used to help patients reach blood pressure targets.

Clinical and metabolic features of the randomised controlled Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) cohort

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Substantial weight loss in type 2 diabetes can achieve a return to non-diabetic biochemical status, without the need for medication. The Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT), a cluster-randomised controlled trial, is testing a structured intervention designed to achieve and sustain this over 2 years in a primary care setting to determine practicability for routine clinical practice. This paper reports the characteristics of the baseline cohort.

METHODS

People with type 2 diabetes for <6 years with a BMI of 27-45 kg/m2 were recruited in 49 UK primary care practices, randomised to either best-practice diabetes care alone or with an additional evidence-based weight management programme (Counterweight-Plus). The co-primary outcomes, at 12 months, are weight loss ≥15 kg and diabetes remission (HbA1c <48 mmol/mol [6.5%]) without glucose-lowering therapy for at least 2 months. Outcome assessors are blinded to group assignment.

RESULTS

Of 1510 people invited, 423 (28%) accepted; of whom, 306 (72%) were eligible at screening and gave informed consent. Seven participants were later found to have been randomised in error and one withdrew consent, leaving 298 (176 men, 122 women) who will form the intention to treat (ITT) population for analysis. Mean (SD) age was 54.4 (7.6) years, duration of diabetes 3.0 (1.7) years, BMI 34.6 (4.4) kg/m2 for all participants (34.2 (4.2) kg/m2 in men and 35.3 (4.6) kg/m2 in women) and baseline HbA1c (on treatment) 59.3 (12.7) mmol/mol (7.6% [1.2%]). The recruitment rate in the intervention and control groups, and comparisons between the subgroups recruited in Scotland and England, showed few differences.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

DiRECT has recruited a cohort of people with type 2 diabetes with characteristics similar to those seen in routine practice, indicating potential widespread applicability. Over 25% of the eligible population wished to participate in the study, including a high proportion of men, in line with the prevalence distribution of type 2 diabetes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN03267836 ; date of registration 20 December 2013.

Primary care-led weight management for remission of type 2 diabetes (DiRECT): an open-label, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes is a chronic disorder that requires lifelong treatment. We aimed to assess whether intensive weight management within routine primary care would achieve remission of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We did this open-label, cluster-randomised trial (DiRECT) at 49 primary care practices in Scotland and the Tyneside region of England. Practices were randomly assigned (1:1), via a computer-generated list, to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control), with stratification for study site (Tyneside or Scotland) and practice list size (>5700 or ≤5700). Participants, carers, and research assistants who collected outcome data were aware of group allocation; however, allocation was concealed from the study statistician. We recruited individuals aged 20-65 years who had been diagnosed with type 2 diabetes within the past 6 years, had a body-mass index of 27-45 kg/m², and were not receiving insulin. The intervention comprised withdrawal of antidiabetic and antihypertensive drugs, total diet replacement (825-853 kcal/day formula diet for 3-5 months), stepped food reintroduction (2-8 weeks), and structured support for long-term weight loss maintenance. Co-primary outcomes were weight loss of 15 kg or more, and remission of diabetes, defined as glycated haemoglobin (HbA_1c) of less than 6·5% (<48 mmol/mol) after at least 2 months off all antidiabetic medications, from baseline to 12 months. These outcomes were analysed hierarchically. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number 03267836.

FINDINGS

Between July 25, 2014, and Aug 5, 2017, we recruited 306 individuals from 49 intervention (n=23) and control (n=26) general practices; 149 participants per group comprised the intention-to-treat population. At 12 months, we recorded weight loss of 15 kg or more in 36 (24%) participants in the intervention group and no participants in the control group (p<0·0001). Diabetes remission was achieved in 68 (46%) participants in the intervention group and six (4%) participants in the control group (odds ratio 19·7, 95% CI 7·8-49·8; p<0·0001). Remission varied with weight loss in the whole study population, with achievement in none of 76 participants who gained weight, six (7%) of 89 participants who maintained 0-5 kg weight loss, 19 (34%) of 56 participants with 5-10 kg loss, 16 (57%) of 28 participants with 10-15 kg loss, and 31 (86%) of 36 participants who lost 15 kg or more. Mean bodyweight fell by 10·0 kg (SD 8·0) in the intervention group and 1·0 kg (3·7) in the control group (adjusted difference -8·8 kg, 95% CI -10·3 to -7·3; p<0·0001). Quality of life, as measured by the EuroQol 5 Dimensions visual analogue scale, improved by 7·2 points (SD 21·3) in the intervention group, and decreased by 2·9 points (15·5) in the control group (adjusted difference 6·4 points, 95% CI 2·5-10·3; p=0·0012). Nine serious adverse events were reported by seven (4%) of 157 participants in the intervention group and two were reported by two (1%) participants in the control group. Two serious adverse events (biliary colic and abdominal pain), occurring in the same participant, were deemed potentially related to the intervention. No serious adverse events led to withdrawal from the study.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show that, at 12 months, almost half of participants achieved remission to a non-diabetic state and off antidiabetic drugs. Remission of type 2 diabetes is a practical target for primary care.

FUNDING

Diabetes UK.

Thyroid Hormone Therapy for Older Adults with Subclinical Hypothyroidism

BACKGROUND

The use of levothyroxine to treat subclinical hypothyroidism is controversial. We aimed to determine whether levothyroxine provided clinical benefits in older persons with this condition.

METHODS

We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial involving 737 adults who were at least 65 years of age and who had persisting subclinical hypothyroidism (thyrotropin level, 4.60 to 19.99 mIU per liter; free thyroxine level within the reference range). A total of 368 patients were assigned to receive levothyroxine (at a starting dose of 50 μg daily, or 25 μg if the body weight was <50 kg or the patient had coronary heart disease), with dose adjustment according to the thyrotropin level; 369 patients were assigned to receive placebo with mock dose adjustment. The two primary outcomes were the change in the Hypothyroid Symptoms score and Tiredness score on a thyroid-related quality-of-life questionnaire at 1 year (range of each scale is 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating more symptoms or tiredness, respectively; minimum clinically important difference, 9 points).

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 74.4 years, and 396 patients (53.7%) were women. The mean (±SD) thyrotropin level was 6.40±2.01 mIU per liter at baseline; at 1 year, this level had decreased to 5.48 mIU per liter in the placebo group, as compared with 3.63 mIU per liter in the levothyroxine group (P<0.001), at a median dose of 50 μg. We found no differences in the mean change at 1 year in the Hypothyroid Symptoms score (0.2±15.3 in the placebo group and 0.2±14.4 in the levothyroxine group; between-group difference, 0.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.0 to 2.1) or the Tiredness score (3.2±17.7 and 3.8±18.4, respectively; between-group difference, 0.4; 95% CI, -2.1 to 2.9). No beneficial effects of levothyroxine were seen on secondary-outcome measures. There was no significant excess of serious adverse events prespecified as being of special interest.

CONCLUSIONS

Levothyroxine provided no apparent benefits in older persons with subclinical hypothyroidism. (Funded by European Union FP7 and others; TRUST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01660126 .).

Study protocol; Thyroid hormone Replacement for Untreated older adults with Subclinical hypothyroidism - a randomised placebo controlled Trial (TRUST)

BACKGROUND

Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) is a common condition in elderly people, defined as elevated serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) with normal circulating free thyroxine (fT4). Evidence is lacking about the effect of thyroid hormone treatment. We describe the protocol of a large randomised controlled trial (RCT) of Levothyroxine treatment for SCH.

METHODS

Participants are community-dwelling subjects aged ≥65 years with SCH, diagnosed by elevated TSH levels (≥4.6 and ≤19.9 mU/L) on a minimum of two measures ≥ three months apart, with fT4 levels within laboratory reference range. The study is a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled parallel group trial, starting with levothyroxine 50 micrograms daily (25 micrograms in subjects <50Kg body weight or known coronary heart disease) with titration of dose in the active treatment group according to TSH level, and a mock titration in the placebo group. The primary outcomes are changes in two domains (hypothyroid symptoms and fatigue / vitality) on the thyroid-related quality of life questionnaire (ThyPRO) at one year. The study has 80% power (at p = 0.025, 2-tailed) to detect a change with levothyroxine treatment of 3.0% on the hypothyroid scale and 4.1% on the fatigue / vitality scale with a total target sample size of 750 patients. Secondary outcomes include general health-related quality of life (EuroQol), fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, handgrip strength, executive cognitive function (Letter Digit Coding Test), basic and instrumental activities of daily living, haemoglobin, blood pressure, weight, body mass index and waist circumference. Patients are monitored for specific adverse events of interest including incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure and bone fracture.

DISCUSSION

This large multicentre RCT of levothyroxine treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism is powered to detect clinically relevant change in symptoms / quality of life and is likely to be highly influential in guiding treatment of this common condition.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01660126 ; registered 8th June 2012.

Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) Oral Prevalence in Scotland (HOPSCOTCH): A Feasibility Study in Dental Settings

The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility of undertaking a full population investigation into the prevalence, incidence, and persistence of oral Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) in Scotland via dental settings. Male and female patients aged 16–69 years were recruited by Research Nurses in 3 primary care and dental outreach teaching centres and 2 General Dental Practices (GDPs), and by Dental Care Teams in 2 further GDPs. Participants completed a questionnaire (via an online tablet computer or paper) with socioeconomic, lifestyle, and sexual history items; and were followed up at 6-months for further questionnaire through appointment or post/online. Saline oral gargle/rinse samples, collected at baseline and follow-up, were subject to molecular HPV genotyping centrally. 1213 dental patients were approached and 402 individuals consented (participation rate 33.1%). 390 completed the baseline questionnaire and 380 provided a baseline oral specimen. Follow-up rate was 61.6% at 6 months. While recruitment was no different in Research Nurse vs Dental Care Team models the Nurse model ensured more rapid recruitment. There were relatively few missing responses in the questionnaire and high levels of disclosure of risk behaviours (99% answered some of the sexual history questions). Data linkage of participant data to routine health records including HPV vaccination data was successful with 99.1% matching. Oral rinse/gargle sample collection and subsequent HPV testing was feasible. Preliminary analyses found over 95% of samples to be valid for molecular HPV detection prevalence of oral HPV infection of 5.5% (95%CI 3.7, 8.3). It is feasible to recruit and follow-up dental patients largely representative / reflective of the wider population, suggesting it would be possible to undertake a study to investigate the prevalence, incidence, and determinants of oral HPV infection in dental settings.

The Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT): protocol for a cluster randomised trial

Background

Despite improving evidence-based practice following clinical guidelines to optimise drug therapy, Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) still exerts a devastating toll from vascular complications and premature death. Biochemical remission of T2DM has been demonstrated with weight loss around 15kg following bariatric surgery and in several small studies of non-surgical energy-restriction treatments. The non-surgical Counterweight-Plus programme, running in Primary Care where obesity and T2DM are routinely managed, produces >15 kg weight loss in 33 % of all enrolled patients. The Diabetes UK-funded Counterpoint study suggested that this should be sufficient to reverse T2DM by removing ectopic fat in liver and pancreas, restoring first-phase insulin secretion.

The Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) was designed to determine whether a structured, intensive, weight management programme, delivered in a routine Primary Care setting, is a viable treatment for achieving durable normoglycaemia. Other aims are to understand the mechanistic basis of remission and to identify psychological predictors of response.

Methods/Design

Cluster-randomised design with GP practice as the unit of randomisation: 280 participants from around 30 practices in Scotland and England will be allocated either to continue usual guideline-based care or to add the Counterweight-Plus weight management programme, which includes primary care nurse or dietitian delivery of 12-20weeks low calorie diet replacement, food reintroduction, and long-term weight loss maintenance. Main inclusion criteria: men and women aged 20-65years, all ethnicities, T2DM 0-6years duration, BMI 27-45 kg/m². Tyneside participants will undergo Magnetic Resonance (MR) studies of pancreatic and hepatic fat, and metabolic studies to determine mechanisms underlying T2DM remission. Co-primary endpoints: weight reduction ≥ 15 kg and HbA1c <48 mmol/mol at one year. Further follow-up at 2 years.

Discussion

This study will establish whether a structured weight management programme, delivered in Primary Care by practice nurses or dietitians, is a viable treatment to achieve T2DM remission. Results, available from 2018 onwards, will inform future service strategy.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN03267836. Date of Registration 20/12/2013

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12875-016-0406-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Are routinely collected NHS administrative records suitable for endpoint identification in clinical trials? Evidence from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study

Background

Routinely collected electronic patient records are already widely used in epidemiological research. In this work we investigated the potential for using them to identify endpoints in clinical trials.

Methods

The events recorded in the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS), a large clinical trial of pravastatin in middle-aged hypercholesterolaemic men in the 1990s, were compared with those in the record-linked deaths and hospitalisations records routinely collected in Scotland.

Results

We matched 99% of fatal study events by date. We showed excellent matching (97%) of the causes of fatal endpoint events and good matching (>80% for first events) of the causes of nonfatal endpoint events with a slightly lower rate of mismatching of record linkage than study events (19% of first study myocardial infarctions (MI) and 4% of first record linkage MIs not matched as MI). We also investigated the matching of non-endpoint events and showed a good level of matching, with >78% of first stroke/TIA events being matched as stroke/TIA. The primary reasons for mismatches were record linkage data recording readmissions for procedures or previous events, differences between the diagnoses in the routinely collected data and the conclusions of the clinical trial expert adjudication committee, events occurring outside Scotland and therefore being missed by record linkage data, miscoding of cardiac events in hospitalisations data as ‘unspecified chest pain’, some general miscoding in the record linkage data and some record linkage errors.

Conclusions

We conclude that routinely collected data could be used for recording cardiovascular endpoints in clinical trials and would give very similar results to rigorously collected clinical trial data, in countries with unified health systems such as Scotland. The endpoint types would need to be carefully thought through and an expert endpoint adjudication committee should be involved.

Implementing a centralised pharmacovigilance service in a non-commercial setting in the United Kingdom

The implementation of a pharmacovigilance service compliant with the legal and regulatory responsibilities of clinical trial sponsors presents particular challenges for sponsors in a non-commercial setting.

In this paper we examine these challenges in detail. We identify and discuss the key steps in the development of a pharmacovigilance service within a public health service and university setting in the United Kingdom. We describe how we have established a central Pharmacovigilance Office with dedicated staff and resources within our organisation. This office is supported by an electronic pharmacovigilance reporting infrastructure developed to facilitate the receipt and processing of safety information, the onward reporting in compliance with legislation and the provision of sponsor institution oversight of clinical trial participant safety. An education and training programme has also been set up to ensure that all relevant staff in the organisation are fully aware of the pharmacovigilance service and are appropriately trained in its use.

We discuss possible alternatives to this approach and why we consider our solution to be the most appropriate to ensure that a non-commercial sponsor organisation and investigators are operating in a fully compliant way.

[Focus group interviews: a qualitative research approach to nursing]

Focus Group interviews have become a popular technique for nursing research. This article introduces basic guidelines for the application of the methodology through a literature review and an example from nursing research. General and specific study design issues are covered.

[Nursing diagnoses: questions and controversies]

This article analyses the issues and controversies surrounding nursing diagnoses. In particular, NANDA's attempt to have their nursing diagnosis taxonomy included in the WHO's 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases, which ultimately would have made the NANDA taxonomy the definitive nursing classification world wide. A critical analysis and discussion about nursing diagnoses within German-speaking nursing society is long overdue. Internationally, the nursing environment differs in aspects such as culture, philosophy, socio-economic status and legal context--all of which have to be taken account of when developing an international nursing classification system. In this light, the "fit" of the NANDA taxonomy has to be questioned within a European context. Further, the consequences that importing these diagnoses might have on the "profession's" development are usually neglected within the literature.

Effects on oxygen saturation levels of handling premature infants within the concepts of kinaesthetic infant handling: pilot study

Preterm infants are exposed to many stressors within the neonatal intensive care environment. Since these are associated with medical and developmental problems, a reduction of stress factors is desirable. Handling is a very common occurrence and is associated with stress. Kinaesthetic infant handling (KIH) offers practical guidance on handling for nurses and has been widely implemented in Germany, although there is no direct experimental evidence to support its use. The findings of this pilot study suggest a beneficial effect on the SpO2 for infants who were handled using KIH. Since this was a pilot study with a small sample size, caution has to be exercised with this finding. Therefore, the main purpose of the study was: (1) to identify the weaknesses and strengths of the chosen study design; and (2) to perform a power analysis in order to determine a sufficient sample size for the full experiment.