Interim estimates of 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, Canada, January 2019

Using a test-negative design, the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network assessed interim 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against predominant influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Adjusted VE was 72% (95% confidence interval: 60 to 81) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 illness. This substantial vaccine protection was observed in all age groups, notably young children who appeared to be disproportionately affected. Sequence analysis identified heterogeneity in emerging clade 6B.1 viruses but no dominant drift variant.

Children under 10 years of age were more affected by the 2018/19 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in Canada: ‎possible cohort effect following the 2009 influenza pandemic

Introduction

Findings from the community-based Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN) suggest children were more affected by the 2018/19 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic.

Aim

To compare the age distribution of A(H1N1)pdm09 cases in 2018/19 to prior seasonal influenza epidemics in Canada.

Methods

The age distribution of unvaccinated influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases and test-negative controls were compared across A(H1N1)pdm09-dominant epidemics in 2018/19, 2015/16 and 2013/14 and with the general population of SPSN provinces. Similar comparisons were undertaken for influenza A(H3N2)-dominant epidemics.

Results

In 2018/19, more influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases were under 10 years old than controls (29% vs 16%; p < 0.001). In particular, children aged 5–9 years comprised 14% of cases, greater than their contribution to controls (4%) or the general population (5%) and at least twice their contribution in 2015/16 (7%; p < 0.001) or 2013/14 (5%; p < 0.001). Conversely, children aged 10–19 years (11% of the population) were under-represented among A(H1N1)pdm09 cases versus controls in 2018/19 (7% vs 12%; p < 0.001), 2015/16 (7% vs 13%; p < 0.001) and 2013/14 (9% vs 12%; p = 0.12).

Conclusion

Children under 10 years old contributed more to outpatient A(H1N1)pdm09 medical visits in 2018/19 than prior seasonal epidemics in Canada. In 2018/19, all children under 10 years old were born after the 2009 A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and therefore lacked pandemic-induced immunity. In addition, more than half those born after 2009 now attend school (i.e. 5–9-year-olds), a socio-behavioural context that may enhance transmission and did not apply during prior A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemics.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness by A(H3N2) phylogenetic sub-cluster and prior vaccination history: 2016-17 and 2017-18 epidemics in Canada

Background

The influenza A(H3N2) vaccine was updated from clade 3C.3a in 2015–2016 to 3C.2a for 2016–2017 and 2017–2018. Circulating 3C.2a viruses showed considerable hemagglutinin glycoprotein diversification and the egg-adapted vaccine also bore mutations.

Methods

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 was assessed by test-negative design, explored by A(H3N2) phylogenetic subcluster and prior season’s vaccination history.

Results

In 2016–2017, A(H3N2) VE was 36% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18%–50%), comparable with (43%; 95% CI, 24%–58%) or without (33%; 95% CI, −21% to 62%) prior season’s vaccination. In 2017–2018, VE was 14% (95% CI, −8% to 31%), lower with (9%; 95% CI, −18% to 30%) versus without (45%; 95% CI, −7% to 71%) prior season’s vaccination. In 2016–2017, VE against predominant clade 3C.2a1 viruses was 33% (95% CI, 11%–50%): 18% (95% CI, −40% to 52%) for 3C.2a1a defined by a pivotal T135K loss of glycosylation; 60% (95% CI, 19%–81%) for 3C.2a1b (without T135K); and 31% (95% CI, 2%–51%) for other 3C.2a1 variants (with/without T135K). VE against 3C.2a2 viruses was 45% (95% CI, 2%–70%) in 2016–2017 but 15% (95% CI, −7% to 33%) in 2017–2018 when 3C.2a2 predominated. VE against 3C.2a1b in 2017–2018 was 37% (95% CI, −57% to 75%), lower at 12% (95% CI, −129% to 67%) for a new 3C.2a1b subcluster (n = 28) also bearing T135K.

Conclusions

Exploring VE by phylogenetic subcluster and prior vaccination history reveals informative heterogeneity. Pivotal mutations affecting glycosylation sites, and repeat vaccination using unchanged antigen, may reduce VE.

Paradoxical clade- and age-specific vaccine effectiveness during the 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) epidemic in Canada: potential imprint-regulated effect of vaccine (I-REV)

IntroductionThe Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network reports vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) epidemic.AimTo explain a paradoxical signal of increased clade 3C.3a risk among 35-54-year-old vaccinees, we hypothesise childhood immunological imprinting and a cohort effect following the 1968 influenza A(H3N2) pandemic.MethodsWe assessed VE by test-negative design for influenza A(H3N2) overall and for co-circulating clades 3C.2a1b and 3C.3a. VE variation by age in 2018/19 was compared with amino acid variation in the haemagglutinin glycoprotein by year since 1968.ResultsInfluenza A(H3N2) VE was 17% (95% CI: -13 to 39) overall: 27% (95% CI: -7 to 50) for 3C.2a1b and -32% (95% CI: -119 to 21) for 3C.3a. Among 20-64-year-olds, VE was -7% (95% CI: -56 to 26): 6% (95% CI: -49 to 41) for 3C.2a1b and -96% (95% CI: -277 to -2) for 3C.3a. Clade 3C.3a VE showed a pronounced negative dip among 35-54-year-olds in whom the odds of medically attended illness were > 4-fold increased for vaccinated vs unvaccinated participants (p < 0.005). This age group was primed in childhood to influenza A(H3N2) viruses that for two decades following the 1968 pandemic bore a serine at haemagglutinin position 159, in common with contemporary 3C.3a viruses but mismatched to 3C.2a vaccine strains instead bearing tyrosine.DiscussionImprinting by the first childhood influenza infection is known to confer long-lasting immunity focused toward priming epitopes. Our findings suggest vaccine mismatch may negatively interact with imprinted immunity. The immunological mechanisms for imprint-regulated effect of vaccine (I-REV) warrant investigation.