Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Real-time monitoring shows substantial excess all-cause mortality during second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, October to December 2020

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.

Excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe - preliminary pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network, March to April 2020

A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March–April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected  ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45–64 (8%) and 15–44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0–14 year olds.

Advice on lifestyle changes (diet, red wine and physical activity) does not affect internal carotid and middle cerebral artery blood flow velocity in patients with carotid arteriosclerosis in a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

A Mediterranean diet, with and without small daily amounts of red wine, and physical activity reduce the risk of cerebrovascular disease and improve cognition. An increase in cerebral blood flow may be the underlying mechanism. Under normal conditions, cerebral blood flow velocity changes in the internal carotid arteries and in large basal cerebral arteries correlate closely with cerebral blood flow changes, as the diameter of these vessels hardly changes and only the smaller vessels downstream change their diameter.

METHODS

A prospective randomized controlled trial was performed in 108 patients with carotid atherosclerosis (mean age 64 years, 67% men, 66% on statin therapy). Half of them were advised to follow a polyphenol-rich modified Mediterranean diet including 1-2 tomatoes, 3-5 walnuts and a bar of dark chocolate (25 g) a day and to perform moderate physical exercise for 30 min/day (lifestyle changes). Within these two groups, half of the patients were randomized either to avoid any alcohol or to drink 100 ml of red wine (women) or 200 ml of red wine (men) daily. Bilateral middle cerebral and internal carotid blood flow velocity (peak systolic, peak end-diastolic and mean) was measured at baseline and after 4 and 20 weeks using colour-coded duplex ultrasound. Insonation depth and insonation angle were used to identically place the sample volume during follow-up investigations. A general linear model with Tukey-Kramer adjustment for multiple comparisons was used to assess the primary end points. For the analysis we used the mean values of the right and left artery.

RESULTS

Neither lifestyle changes nor red wine had an effect on peak systolic, peak end-diastolic or mean cerebral blood flow velocity.

CONCLUSIONS

Advice on lifestyle changes, including a modified polyphenol-rich Mediterranean diet, a glass of red wine daily and physical exercise, did not affect middle cerebral and internal carotid blood flow velocity in our patient group with carotid atherosclerosis. An increase in cerebral blood flow is thus unlikely to be the cause of the reduced risk of cerebrovascular disease and improved cognitive functioning described in the literature. One possible explanation for the fact that blood flow velocity was not affected by red wine, diet and physical activity advice is that two thirds of our patients were already on statin therapy. Statins increase cerebral blood flow and vasomotor reactivity via nitric oxide.

A daily glass of red wine associated with lifestyle changes independently improves blood lipids in patients with carotid arteriosclerosis: results from a randomized controlled trial

Background

Physical exercise and a Mediterranean diet improve serum lipid profile. The present work studied whether red wine has an effect on top of a lipid-lowering lifestyle in patients with carotid atherosclerosis.

Methods

A prospective randomised unblinded trial was performed from 2009 to 2011 in 108 patients with carotid atherosclerosis, 65% of whom were already on statin therapy with a low mean LDL of 104.9 mg/dl. Half of them were advised to follow a modified Mediterranean diet and to perform moderate physical exercise during 30 min/day (lifestyle changes) for 20 weeks. Within these two groups half of the patients were randomised either to avoid any alcohol or to drink 100 ml of red wine (women) or 200 ml of red wine (men) daily.

Results

LDL was significantly lowered by 7% in the lifestyle-changes group compared to the no-lifestyle-changes group (p = 0.0296) after 20 weeks. Lifestyle changes lowered the LDL/HDL ratio after 20 weeks by 8% (p = 0.0242) and red wine independently by 13% (p = 0.0049). The effect on LDL/HDL ratio after 20 weeks was, however, more pronounced in the non-LC group. Total cholesterol (−6%; p = 0.0238) and triglycerides (−13%; p = 0.0361) were lowered significantly by lifestyle changes after 20 weeks compared to the no-lifestyle-changes group. Lipoprotein (a) was not significantly affected by any intervention. The given results are per ITT analysis.

Conclusions

Lifestyle changes including a modified Mediterranean diet and physical exercise as well as a glass of red wine daily improve independently the LDL/HDL ratio in patients with carotid arteriosclerosis even though the vast majority of them was already on statin therapy.

Trial registration

http://www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01146132

A daily glass of red wine and lifestyle changes do not affect arterial blood pressure and heart rate in patients with carotid arteriosclerosis after 4 and 20 weeks

BACKGROUND

Regular consumption of small amounts of red wine improves blood lipids. However, there is concern whether this beneficial effect might be counterbalanced by an increase in blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR), which are risk factors for cerebro-cardiovascular disease. In particular, we studied whether regular consumption of red wine with and without lifestyle changes (LC; healthy diet and physical activity advice) results in an increase in BP and HR.

METHODS

A prospective, unblinded randomized trial was performed in 108 patients (67% men) with carotid atherosclerosis documented by ultrasound, a mean BP of 122/79 mm Hg and a mean HR of 71 bpm at inclusion in the study. Sixty-eight percent were known and treated hypertensives. The mean 24-hour BP at baseline was 122/79 mm Hg. Half of the study participants, the control group, was seen by a nurse at baseline, after 4 and after 20 weeks, and was instructed not to change their eating and physical activity habits. In the other half, a dietician performed five sessions of 30 min each (at baseline, after 1 week and after 2, 3 and 4 weeks) giving advice on healthy eating based on a Mediterranean diet and physical exercise. The recommendations given were the following: 5 portions of fruit/vegetables per day, a diet low in absolute fat, a preference of vegetable oil (olive or rapeseed oil), whole-grain products, poultry, low-fat dairy products, 1 fat and 1 lean fish meal per week, reduced consumption of red meat, and avoidance of pork, ready-made meals, sugar and excessive salt intake. In addition, regular consumption of 1 bar of dark chocolate (25 g, >70% of cacao), 1-2 tomatoes, and 3-5 walnuts as well as at least 30 min of moderate daily physical activity were recommended. Within these two groups, half of the patients were randomized either to avoid alcohol completely or to drink 100 ml (women) or 200 ml of red wine (men) daily.

RESULTS

Neither LC nor red wine had an effect on the mean systolic and diastolic 24-hour BP and HR after 4 and 20 weeks, as analyzed by general linear modeling. No difference was found for diurnal and nocturnal values.

CONCLUSIONS

The possible beneficial effect of regular consumption of small amounts of red wine is not counterbalanced in the long term by an increase in the mean BP or HR in mainly normotensive and well-treated hypertensive patients with carotid atherosclerosis, neither in the patients given healthy lifestyle advice nor in those with a standard lifestyle. Yet, we remain cautious about actively advice patients to drink alcohol regularly given the well-known risks.

Lifestyle counseling in patients with carotid arteriosclerosis from Luxemburg should focus more on the reduction of sugar, sodium and saturated fat consumption

BACKGROUND

Healthy diet and physical activity improve risk factors for cerebrovascular disease. It is unclear whether patients with carotid artery disease from Luxemburg meet common guideline criteria and whether systematic counseling has a sustained effect.

METHODS

We assessed anthropometric data, eating habits and physical activity habits in 53 patients with carotid atherosclerosis at baseline, after 4 and 20 weeks, and advised them five times for 30 min to follow a modified Mediterranean diet and to perform moderate physical exercise at least during 30 min/day.

RESULTS

The patients had a mildly increased BMI (mean 27.6, recommended below 25), they already ate enough vegetables and fruits (mean 485 g daily, recommended at least 400 g), they ate too much sugar (mean 74 g daily) and sodium (mean 2710 mg daily, recommended less than 1500), they consumed 13% of calories from saturated fatty acids (recommended less than 10%), and they already moved sufficiently (62 min daily of moderate and intense physical activity, recommended at least 30 min of moderate physical activity). Lifestyle counseling had a sustained effect on weight, reduction of global caloric intake, carbohydrate and cholesterol intake and on an increase in consumption of poly-unsaturated fatty acids, vegetables and fibres. There was no sustained effect on the consumption of sugar, sodium, and saturated fat.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction of sugar, sodium and saturated fat consumption should be stressed more in counselling of this patient group.