Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Real-time monitoring shows substantial excess all-cause mortality during second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, October to December 2020

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.

End of season influenza vaccine effectiveness in primary care in adults and children in the United Kingdom in 2018/19

2018/19 was the first season of introduction of a newly licensed adjuvanted influenza vaccine (aTIV) for adults aged 65 years and over and the sixth season in the roll-out of a childhood influenza vaccination programme with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The season saw mainly A(H1N1)pdm09 and latterly A(H3N2) circulation. End-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates against laboratory confirmed influenza infection in primary care were calculated using the test negative case control method adjusting for key confounders. End-of-season aVE was 44.3% (95% CI: 26.8, 57.7) against all laboratory-confirmed influenza; 45.7% (95% CI: 26.0, 60.1) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 35.1% (95% CI: -3.7,59.3) against A(H3N2). Overall aVE was 49.9% (95%CI: -13.7, 77.9) for all those ≥ 65 years of age and 62.0% (95% CI: 3.4, 85.0) for those who received aTIV. Overall aVE for 2-17 year olds receiving LAIV was 48.6% (95% CI: -4.4, 74.7). The paper provides evidence of overall significant influenza VE in 2018/19, most notably against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, however, as seen in 2017/18, there was reduced, non-significant VE against A(H3N2). aTIV provided significant protection for those 65 years of age and over.

Impact of prediagnostic smoking and smoking cessation on colorectal cancer prognosis: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from cohorts within the CHANCES consortium

Background

Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies and might also be associated with prognosis after CRC diagnosis. However, current evidence on smoking in association with CRC prognosis is limited.

Patients and methods

For this individual patient data meta-analysis, sociodemographic and smoking behavior information of 12 414 incident CRC patients (median age at diagnosis: 64.3 years), recruited within 14 prospective cohort studies among previously cancer-free adults, was collected at baseline and harmonized across studies. Vital status and causes of death were collected for a mean follow-up time of 5.1 years following cancer diagnosis. Associations of smoking behavior with overall and CRC-specific survival were evaluated using Cox regression and standard meta-analysis methodology.

Results

A total of 5229 participants died, 3194 from CRC. Cox regression revealed significant associations between former [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.20] and current smoking (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04-1.60) and poorer overall survival compared with never smoking. Compared with current smoking, smoking cessation was associated with improved overall (HR<10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.69-0.88; HR≥10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.63-0.97) and CRC-specific survival (HR≥10 years = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.67-0.85).

Conclusion

In this large meta-analysis including primary data of incident CRC patients from 14 prospective cohort studies on the association between smoking and CRC prognosis, former and current smoking were associated with poorer CRC prognosis compared with never smoking. Smoking cessation was associated with improved survival when compared with current smokers. Future studies should further quantify the benefits of nonsmoking, both for cancer prevention and for improving survival among CRC patients, in particular also in terms of treatment response.

Education achievement and type 2 diabetes-what mediates the relationship in older adults? Data from the ESTHER study: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The study aims to identify the mediating factors of the relationship between education achievement and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in older adults.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Participants were recruited from the German federal state of Saarland.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were excluded if they had prevalent T2DM or missing data on prevalent T2DM, missing or zero follow-up time for incident T2DM or were under 50 years of age. The total sample consisted of 7462 individuals aged 50-75 years (42.8% men, mean age 61.7 years) at baseline (2000-02). The median follow-up time was 8.0 years.

METHODS

Cox proportional hazards regression was initially used to determine the direct association between education achievement and incident T2DM. Using the Baron and Kenny approach, we then investigated the associations between education achievement and incident T2DM with the potential mediators. The contribution of each of the putative mediating variables was then calculated.

RESULTS

A clear socioeconomic gradient was observed with regard to T2DM incidence with the lowest educated individuals at a greater risk of developing the disease during the follow-up period: HR (95% CI) high education: 0.52 (0.34 to 0.80); medium education: 0.80 (0.66 to 0.96). Seven of the variables considered explained a proportion of the education-T2DM relationship (body mass index, alcohol consumption, hypertension, fasting triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, physical activity and smoking status), where the contribution of the variables ranged from 1.0% to 17.7%. Overall, the mediators explained 31.7% of the relationship.

CONCLUSION

By identifying the possible mediating factors of the relationship between education achievement and incident T2DM in older adults, the results of this study can be used to assist with the development of public health strategies that aim to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in T2DM.

Association of Repeatedly Measured High-Sensitivity-Assayed Troponin I with Cardiovascular Disease Events in a General Population from the MORGAM/BiomarCaRE Study

BACKGROUND

High-sensitivity troponin I (hs-cTnI) concentrations reflect myocardial stress. The role of hs-cTnI in predicting long-term changes in the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in general populations is not clearly defined.

METHODS

We investigated whether the change in 3 repeated measures of hs-cTnI collected 5 years apart in a prospective Danish study (3875 participants, initially aged 30-60 years, 51% female, disease free at baseline) improves 10-year prediction of incident CVD compared to using a single most recent hs-cTnI measurement. The change process was modelled using a joint (longitudinal and survival) model and compared to a Cox model using a single hs-cTnI measure adjusted for classic CVD risk factors, and evaluated using discrimination statistics.

RESULTS

Median hs-cTnI concentrations changed from 2.6 ng/L to 3.4 ng/L over 10 years. The change in hs-cTnI predicts 10-year risk of CVD (581 events); the joint model gave a hazard ratio of 1.31 per interquartile difference in hs-cTnI (95% CI 1.15-1.48) after adjustment for CVD risk factors. However, the joint model performed only marginally better (c-index improvement 0.0041, P = 0.03) than using a single hs-cTnI measure (c-index improvement 0.0052, P = 0.04) for prediction of CVD, compared to a model incorporating CVD risk factors without hs-cTnI (c-index 0.744).

CONCLUSIONS

The change in hs-cTnI in 5-year intervals better predicts risk of CVD in the general population, but the most recent measure of hs-cTnI, (at 10 years) is as effective in predicting CVD risk. This simplifies the use of hs-cTnI as a prognostic marker for primary prevention of CVD in the general population.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of “disease-free” years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is “never too late”.

Smoking and All-cause Mortality in Older Adults: Results From the CHANCES Consortium

INTRODUCTION

Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years.

METHODS

Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014.

RESULTS

A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority.

WHO guidelines for a healthy diet and mortality from cardiovascular disease in European and American elderly: the CHANCES project

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents a leading cause of mortality worldwide, especially in the elderly. Lowering the number of CVD deaths requires preventive strategies targeted on the elderly.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to generate evidence on the association between WHO dietary recommendations and mortality from CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly aged ≥60 y.

DESIGN

We analyzed data from 10 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States comprising a total sample of 281,874 men and women free from chronic diseases at baseline. Components of the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) included saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and fruit and vegetables. Cohort-specific HRs adjusted for sex, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy and alcohol intakes were pooled by using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

During 3,322,768 person-years of follow-up, 12,492 people died of CVD. An increase of 10 HDI points (complete adherence to an additional WHO guideline) was, on average, not associated with CVD mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.03), CAD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.14), or stroke mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03). However, after stratification of the data by geographic region, adherence to the HDI was associated with reduced CVD mortality in the southern European cohorts (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96; I(2) = 0%) and in the US cohort (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87; I(2) = not applicable).

CONCLUSION

Overall, greater adherence to the WHO dietary guidelines was not significantly associated with CVD mortality, but the results varied across regions. Clear inverse associations were observed in elderly populations in southern Europe and the United States.

Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN

Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Repeated measures of body mass index and C-reactive protein in relation to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease: results from the consortium on health and ageing network of cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single 'baseline' measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25-<30 kg/m(2)) or moderately obese (≥30-<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5-<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58-0.82) and 0.78 (0.63-0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79-0.94) and 0.80 (0.72-0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76-1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62-1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity.

A prospective cohort study of body size and risk of head and neck cancers in the NIH-AARP diet and health study

BACKGROUND

The association between body size and head and neck cancers (HNCA) is unclear, partly because of the biases in case-control studies.

METHODS

In the prospective NIH-AARP cohort study, 218,854 participants (132,288 men and 86,566 women), aged 50 to 71 years, were cancer free at baseline (1995 and 1996), and had valid anthropometric data. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the associations between body size and HNCA, adjusted for current and past smoking habits, alcohol intake, education, race, and fruit and vegetable consumption, and reported as HR and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Until December 31, 2006, 779 incident HNCAs occurred: 342 in the oral cavity, 120 in the oro- and hypopharynx, 265 in the larynx, 12 in the nasopharynx, and 40 at overlapping sites. There was an inverse association between HNCA and body mass index, which was almost exclusively among current smokers (HR = 0.76 per each 5 U increase; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), and diminished as initial years of follow-up were excluded. We observed a direct association with waist-to-hip ratio (HR = 1.16 per 0.1 U increase; 95% CI, 1.03-1.31), particularly for cancers of the oral cavity (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.17-1.67). Height was also directly associated with total HNCAs (P = 0.02), and oro- and hypopharyngeal cancers (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of HNCAs was associated inversely with leanness among current smokers, and directly with abdominal obesity and height.

IMPACT

Our study provides evidence that the association between leanness and risk of HNCAs may be due to effect modification by smoking.

Abstract 2529: A prospective cohort study of body size and risk of head and neck cancers in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

Background: The association between body size and head and neck cancers has not been well understood, partly because of the biases in case-control studies (such as reverse causation due to pre-diagnosis weight loss and use of recalled weight), and partly because of the difficulties in adjusting for confounders such as tobacco smoking. The only published cohort study on this relationship showed reduced mortality, but not incidence, among overweight and obese people, which was only significant among smokers.

Methods: In the prospective NIH-AARP cohort study, 218,854 participants (132,288 men and 86,566 women) aged 50-71, were cancer-free at baseline, and had valid data on weight, height, and waist and hip circumference. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the associations between overall (BMI) and abdominal (waist and waist-to-hip ratio) body size and head and neck cancers (squamous cell carcinomas of the oral cavity, oro-and hypopharynx, larynx, and nasopharynx). The analyses were adjusted for confounders, among them current and past smoking habits, alcohol intake, education, race and fruit and vegetable consumption. Additional analyses were also done separately among never- and ever-smokers.

Results: During follow-up from the study baseline (1995 and 1996) to 31 December 2006, a total of 779 incident head and neck cancers accrued to the cohort, including 342 in the oral cavity, 120 in the oro- and hypo-pharynx, 265 in the larynx, 12 in the nasopharynx, and 40 in more than one site. Overweight (BMI 25-30) was associated with a decreased risk of the overall head and neck cancer incidence (HR: 0.83; 95%CI 0.70-0.97). Among never-smokers, total head and neck cancer incidence was not associated with BMI, while in ever-smokers, having a BMI over 35 was associated with a lower risk (HR: 0.42; 95%CI: 0.21-0.83), adjusted for the number of past and current cigarettes smoked. Oro-and hypo-pharyngeal cancers showed an increased risk among lean people (BMI&lt; 18.5 versus normal; HR: 4.32; 95CI: 1.53-12.18). For oro- and hypo-pharyngeal cancers, leanness increased the risk both in ever and never-smokers. Waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio did not show significant associations with any of the cancer sites studied.

Conclusion: This is the first prospective study to show that overall (but not abdominal) obesity was associated with a lower risk of incident head and neck cancers, especially among smokers. Risk of oro- and hypopharyngeal cancers showed an inverse association with BMI, irrespective of smoking habits, which may be due to their stronger link to HPV infection rather than smoking.

Citation Format: Arash Etemadi, Mark G. O'Doherty, Neal D. Freedman, Albert R. Hollenbeck, Sanford M. Dawsey, Christian C. Abnet. A prospective cohort study of body size and risk of head and neck cancers in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 104th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2013 Apr 6-10; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2013;73(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 2529. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2013-2529

Association of dietary fat intakes with risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the NIH-AARP diet and health study

The aim of our study was to investigate whether intakes of total fat and fat subtypes were associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia or gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma. From 1995-1996, dietary intake data was reported by 494,978 participants of the NIH-AARP cohort. The 630 EAC, 215 ESCC, 454 gastric cardia and 501 gastric noncardia adenocarcinomas accrued to the cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between the dietary fat intakes, whilst adjusting for potential confounders. Although apparent associations were observed in energy-adjusted models, multivariate adjustment attenuated results to null [e.g., EAC energy adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.66 (1.27-2.18) p for trend <0.01; EAC multivariate adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.17 (0.84-1.64) p for trend = 0.58]. Similar patterns were also observed for fat subtypes [e.g., EAC saturated fat, energy adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.79 (1.37-2.33) p for trend <0.01; EAC saturated fat, multivariate adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.27 (0.91-1.78) p for trend = 0.28]. However, in multivariate models an inverse association for polyunsaturated fat (continuous) was seen for EAC in subjects with a body mass index (BMI) in the normal range (18.5-<25 kg/m(2)) [HR (95% CI) 0.76 (0.63-0.92)], that was not present in overweight subjects [HR (95% CI) 1.04 (0.96-1.14)], or in unstratified analysis [HR (95% CI) 0.97 (0.90-1.05)]. p for interaction = 0.02. Overall, we found null associations between the dietary fat intakes with esophageal or gastric cancer risk; although a protective effect of polyunsaturated fat intake was seen for EAC in subjects with a normal BMI.

Dietary patterns and smoking in Northern Irish men: a population at high risk of coronary heart disease

This study evaluated dietary habits of Northern Irish men who are at high risk of cardiovascular disease, stratified as never-, ex-, moderate-, or heavy-smokers. Participants were male volunteers (30 - 49 years) from a single workforce in Belfast (n = 765). Dietary information was collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. For 'a priori' diet scores, never- and ex-smokers had a significantly higher fruit and vegetable score, Mediterranean diet score, and alternative Mediterranean diet score than moderate or heavy-smokers (all p < 0.05). For 'a posteriori' patterns, scores for the healthy, sweet tooth, and traditional dietary patterns, derived from principal component analysis, differed significantly by smoking status, being lower among smokers for the healthy and sweet tooth patterns, and higher in ex-smokers for the traditional pattern (all p < 0.05). When the 'a posteriori' patterns were included in models predicting likelihood of being in a particular smoking category with the 'a priori' patterns, the results for the fruit and vegetable score lost significance (p = 0.13). Both 'a priori' and 'a posteriori' dietary patterns identified smokers, particularly heavy smokers, as exhibiting fewer healthy dietary habits than never- or ex-smokers, but 'a posteriori' dietary patterns appeared to be more strongly associated with smoking status.

Dietary fat and meat intakes and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

The aim of our study was to investigate whether dietary fat and meat intakes are associated with reflux esophagitis (RE), Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). In this all-Ireland case-control study, dietary intake data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire in 219 RE patients, 220 BE patients, 224 EAC patients and 256 frequency-matched controls between 2002 and 2005. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between dietary variables and disease risk using quartiles of intake, to attain odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), while adjusting for potential confounders. Patients in the highest quartile of total fat intake had a higher risk of RE (OR = 3.54; 95% CI = 1.32-9.46) and EAC (OR = 5.44; 95% CI = 2.08-14.27). A higher risk of RE and EAC was also reported for patients in the highest quartile of saturated fat intake (OR = 2.79; 95% CI = 1.11-7.04; OR = 2.41; 95% CI = 1.14-5.08, respectively) and monounsaturated fat intake (OR = 2.63; 95% CI = 1.01-6.86; OR = 5.35; 95% CI = 2.14-13.34, respectively). Patients in the highest quartile of fresh red meat intake had a higher risk of EAC (OR = 3.15; 95% CI = 1.38-7.20). Patients in the highest category of processed meat intake had a higher risk of RE (OR = 4.67; 95% CI = 1.71-12.74). No consistent associations were seen for BE with either fat or meat intakes. Further studies investigating the association between dietary fat and food sources of fat are needed to confirm these results.

Iron intake and markers of iron status and risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between iron intake and iron status with Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC).

METHODS

A total of 220 BE patients, 224 EAC patients, and 256 frequency-matched controls completed a lifestyle and food frequency questionnaire and provided serum and toenail samples between 2002 and 2005. Using multiple logistic regression, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated within quartiles of intake/status.

RESULTS

Comparing the fourth to the first quartile, ferritin (OR 0.47; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.97) and transferrin saturation (OR 0.41; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.82) were negatively associated with BE; while total iron binding capacity was positively associated per 50 μg/dl increment (OR 1.47; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.92). Comparing the fourth to the first quartile, iron intake (OR 0.50; 95% CI: 0.25, 0.98), non-heme iron intake per 10 mg/day increment (OR 0.29; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.99), and toenail iron (OR 0.40; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.93) were negatively associated with EAC; while heme iron intake was positively associated (OR 3.11 95% CI: 1.46, 6.61).

PRINCIPAL CONCLUSION

In contrast to the hypothesis that increased iron intakes and higher iron stores are a risk factor for BE and EAC, this study suggests that higher iron intakes and stores may have a protective association with BE and EAC, with the exception of what was found for heme iron intake.

Effect of supplementation with B vitamins and antioxidants on levels of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) and C-reactive protein (CRP): a double-blind, randomised, factorial design, placebo-controlled trial

PURPOSE

Cardiovascular risk factors such as elevated levels of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA)/C-reactive protein (CRP) and homocysteine are potentially related to essential micronutrients such as certain B vitamins and antioxidant vitamins. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether supplementation with moderate doses of B vitamins and/or antioxidants could alter either ADMA and/or CRP concentrations in middle-aged, apparently healthy men with mildly elevated homocysteine levels.

METHODS

A randomised, double-blind, factorial design, intervention study was carried out on 132 men with mildly elevated homocysteine levels, allocated to four groups (a) B vitamins alone--1 mg folic acid, 7.2 mg pyridoxine, 0.02 mg cyanocobalamin daily, (b) antioxidants alone--150 mg ascorbic acid, 67 mg vitamin E, 9 mg β-carotene daily, (c) B vitamins with antioxidant vitamins, or (d) placebo. A total of 101 men completed the study to 8 weeks.

RESULTS

When the percentage of baseline ADMA and CRP was examined at 8 weeks, no statistically significant differences were observed between the four groups (p = 0.21 and p = 0.90, respectively). Similar non-significant results were observed when analysis was stratified based on baseline CRP levels (<1.0 mg/L, p = 0.10; ≥1.0 mg/L, p = 0.64) and smoking status (all p ≥ 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Supplementation with moderate doses of B vitamins and/or antioxidants did not alter either ADMA or CRP concentrations in these middle-aged, apparently healthy men with mildly elevated homocysteine levels.