Longitudinal NT-proBNP: Associations With Echocardiographic Changes and Outcomes in Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

The relationship of serial NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) measurements with changes in cardiac features and outcomes in heart failure (HF) remains incompletely understood. We determined whether common clinical covariates impact these relationships.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 2 nationwide observational populations with HF, the relationship of serial NT-proBNP measurements with serial echocardiographic parameters and outcomes was analyzed, further stratified by HF with reduced versus preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, inpatient versus outpatient enrollment, age, obesity, chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation, and attainment of ≥50% guideline-recommended doses of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and β-blockers. Among 1911 patients (mean±SD age, 65.1±13.4 years; 26.6% women; 62% inpatient and 38% outpatient), NT-proBNP declined overall, with more rapid declines among inpatients, those with obesity, those with atrial fibrillation, and those attaining ≥50% guideline-recommended doses. Each doubling of NT-proBNP was associated with increases in left ventricular volume (by 6.1 mL), E/e' (transmitral to mitral annular early diastolic velocity ratio) (by 1.4 points), left atrial volume (by 3.6 mL), and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (by -2.1%). The effect sizes of these associations were lower among patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, or advanced age (Pinteraction<0.001). A landmark analysis identified that an SD increase in NT-proBNP over 6 months was associated with a 27% increase in the risk of the composite event of HF hospitalization or all-cause death between 6 months and 2 years (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.15-1.40]; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The relationships between NT-proBNP and structural/functional remodeling differed by age, presence of atrial fibrillation, and HF phenotypes. The association of increased NT-proBNP with increased risk of adverse outcomes was consistent in all subgroups.

Statins and risks of dementia among patients with heart failure: a population-based retrospective cohort study in Hong Kong

Background

Heart failure (HF) and dementia frequently co-exist with shared pathological mechanisms and risk factors. Our study aims to investigate the association between statin therapy and the risks of dementia and its subtypes among patients with HF.

Methods

The Hong Kong Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System database was interrogated to identify patients with incident HF diagnosis from 2004 to 2018, using ICD 9/ICD 10 codes. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance baseline covariates between statin users (N = 54,004) and non-users (N = 50,291). The primary outcomes were incident all-cause dementia, including subtypes of Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and unspecified dementia. Cox proportional-hazard model with competing risk regression was performed to estimate the sub-distribution hazards ratio (SHR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the risks of all-cause dementia and its subtypes that are associated with statin use.

Findings

Of all eligible patients with HF (N = 104,295), the mean age was 74.2 ± 13.6 years old and 52,511 (50.3%) were male. Over a median follow-up of 9.9 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 6.4-13.0), 10,031 (9.6%) patients were diagnosed with dementia, among which Alzheimer's disease (N = 2250), vascular dementia (N = 1831), and unspecified dementia (N = 5950) were quantified separately. After IPTW, statin use was associated with a 20% lower risk of incident dementia compared with non-use (multivariable-adjusted SHR 0.80, 95% CI 0.76-0.84). Stratified by subtypes of dementia, statin use was associated with a 28% lower risk of Alzheimer's disease (SHR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.82), 18% lower risk of vascular dementia (SHR 0.82, 95% CI 0.70-0.95), and a 20% lower risk of unspecified dementia (SHR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.85).

Interpretation

In patients with HF, statin use was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause dementia and its subtypes, including Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and unspecified dementia. Both randomized trials and experimental studies to validate the potential neuroprotective effect of statin are warranted.

Funding

No funding was provided for this study.

Risk of hyperkalaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus prescribed with SGLT2 versus DPP-4 inhibitors

AIMS

To investigate the risk of hyperkalaemia in new users of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors vs. dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with T2DM who commenced treatment with an SGLT2 or a DPP-4 inhibitor between 2015 and 2019 were collected. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis was applied to compare the risk of central laboratory-determined severe hyperkalaemia, hyperkalaemia, hypokalaemia (serum potassium ≥6.0, ≥5.5, and <3.5 mmol/L, respectively), and initiation of a potassium binder in patients newly prescribed an SGLT2 or a DPP-4 inhibitor. A total of 28 599 patients (mean age 60 ± 11 years, 60.9% male) were included after 1:2 propensity score matching, of whom 10 586 were new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and 18 013 of DPP-4 inhibitors. During a 2-year follow-up, severe hyperkalaemia developed in 122 SGLT2 inhibitor users and 325 DPP-4 inhibitor users. Use of SGLT2 inhibitors was associated with a 29% reduction in incident severe hyperkalaemia [hazard ratio (HR) 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.88] compared with DPP-4 inhibitors. Risk of hyperkalaemia (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.92) and prescription of a potassium binder (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.67-0.82) were likewise decreased with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with DPP-4 inhibitors. Occurrence of incident hypokalaemia was nonetheless similar between those prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor and those prescribed a DPP-4 inhibitor (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-1.01).

CONCLUSION

Our study provides real-world evidence that compared with DPP-4 inhibitors, SGLT2 inhibitors were associated with lower risk of hyperkalaemia and did not increase the incidence of hypokalaemia in patients with T2DM.

Association Between Diabetes, Chronic Kidney Disease, and Outcomes in People With Heart Failure From Asia

Background

Diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and heart failure (HF) are pathophysiologically linked and increasing in prevalence in Asian populations, but little is known about the interplay of DM and CKD on outcomes in HF.

Objectives

This study sought to investigate outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) vs heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in relation to the presence of DM and CKD.

Methods

Using the multinational ASIAN-HF registry, we investigated associations between DM only, CKD only, and DM+CKD with: 1) composite of 1-year mortality or HF hospitalization; and 2) Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores, according to HF subtype.

Results

In 5,239 patients with HF (74.6% HFrEF, 25.4% HFpEF; mean age 63 years; 29.1% female), 1,107 (21.1%) had DM only, 1,087 (20.7%) had CKD only, and 1,400 (26.7%) had DM+CKD. Compared with patients without DM nor CKD, DM+CKD was associated with 1-year all-cause mortality or HF hospitalization in HFrEF (adjusted HR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.68-2.55) and HFpEF (HR: 2.37; 95% CI: 1.40-4.02). In HFrEF, DM only and CKD only were associated with 1-year all-cause mortality or HF hospitalization (both HRs: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.14-1.80), while in HFpEF, CKD only (HR: 2.54; 95% CI: 1.46-4.41) but not DM only (HR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.52-1.95) was associated with increased risk (interaction P < 0.01). Adjusted Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores were lower in patients with DM+CKD (HFrEF: mean 60.50, SEM 0.77, HFpEF: mean 70.10, SEM 1.06; P < 0.001) than with no DM or CKD (HFrEF: mean 66.00, SEM 0.65; and HFpEF: mean 75.80, SEM 0.99).

Conclusions

Combined DM and CKD adversely effected outcomes independently of HF subtype, with CKD a consistent predictor of worse outcomes. Strategies to prevent and treat DM and CKD in HF are urgently required.

Patient-Reported Status and Heart Failure Outcomes in Asia by Sex, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status

Background

In heart failure (HF), symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are known to vary among different HF subgroups, but evidence on the association between changing HRQoL and outcomes has not been evaluated.

Objectives

The authors sought to investigate the relationship between changing symptoms, signs, and HRQoL and outcomes by sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (SES).

Methods

Using the ASIAN-HF (Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure) Registry, we investigated associations between the 6-month change in a "global" symptoms and signs score (GSSS), Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall score (KCCQ-OS), and visual analogue scale (VAS) and 1-year mortality or HF hospitalization.

Results

In 6,549 patients (mean age: 62 ± 13 years], 29% female, 27% HF with preserved ejection fraction), women and those in low SES groups had higher symptom burden but lower signs and similar KCCQ-OS to their respective counterparts. Malay patients had the highest GSSS (3.9) and lowest KCCQ-OS (58.5), and Thai/Filipino/others (2.6) and Chinese patients (2.7) had the lowest GSSS scores and the highest KCCQ-OS (73.1 and 74.6, respectively). Compared to no change, worsening of GSSS (>1-point increase), KCCQ-OS (≥10-point decrease) and VAS (>1-point decrease) were associated with higher risk of HF admission/death (adjusted HR: 2.95 [95% CI: 2.14-4.06], 1.93 [95% CI: 1.26-2.94], and 2.30 [95% CI: 1.51-3.52], respectively). Conversely, the same degrees of improvement in GSSS, KCCQ-OS, and VAS were associated with reduced rates (HR: 0.35 [95% CI: 0.25-0.49], 0.25 [95% CI: 0.16-0.40], and 0.64 [95% CI: 0.40-1.00], respectively). Results were consistent across all sex, ethnicity, and SES groups (interaction P > 0.05).

Conclusions

Serial measures of patient-reported symptoms and HRQoL are significant and consistent predictors of outcomes among different groups with HF and provide the potential for a patient-centered and pragmatic approach to risk stratification.

Evidence-based medication adherence among seniors in the first year after heart failure hospitalisation and subsequent long-term outcomes: a restricted cubic spline analysis of adherence-outcome relationships

PURPOSE

Non-adherence to heart failure (HF) medications is associated with poor outcomes. We used restricted cubic splines (RCS) to assess the continuous relationship between adherence to renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASI) and β-blockers and long-term outcomes in senior HF patients.

METHODS

We identified a population-based cohort of 4234 patients, aged 65-84 years, 56% male, who were hospitalised for HF in Western Australia between 2003 and 2008 and survived to 1-year post-discharge (landmark date). Adherence was calculated using the proportion of days covered (PDC) in the first year post-discharge. RCS Cox proportional-hazards models were applied to determine the relationship between adherence and all-cause death and death/HF readmission at 1 and 3 years after the landmark date.

RESULTS

RCS analysis showed a curvilinear adherence-outcome relationship for both RASI and β-blockers which was linear above PDC 60%. For each 10% increase in RASI and β-blocker adherence above this level, the adjusted hazard ratio for 1-year all-cause death fell by an average of 6.6% and 4.8% respectively (trend p < 0.05) and risk of all-cause death/HF readmission fell by 5.4% and 5.8% respectively (trend p < 0.005). Linear reductions in adjusted risk for these outcomes at PDC ≥ 60% were also seen at 3 years after landmark date (all trend p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

RCS analysis showed that for RASI and β-blockers, there was no upper adherence level (threshold) above 60% where risk reduction did not continue to occur. Therefore, interventions should maximise adherence to these disease-modifying HF pharmacotherapies to improve long-term outcomes after hospitalised HF.

Chronic kidney disease begets heart failure and vice versa: temporal associations between heart failure events in relation to incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes

AIM

To investigate the interplay of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) and/or heart failure (HF) and their associations with prognosis in a large, population-based cohort with type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

METHODS

Patients aged ≥18 years with new-onset T2DM, without renal disease or HF at baseline, were identified from the territory-wide Clinical Data Analysis Reporting System between 2000 and 2015. Patients were followed up until December 31, 2020 for incident CKD and/or HF and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 102 488 patients (median age 66 years, 45.7% women, median follow-up 7.5 years), new-onset CKD occurred in 14 798 patients (14.4%), in whom 21.7% had HF. In contrast, among 9258 patients (9.0%) with new-onset HF, 34.6% had CKD. The median time from baseline to incident CKD or HF (4.4 vs. 4.1 years) did not differ. However, the median (interquartile range) time until incident HF after CKD diagnosis was 1.7 (0.5-3.6) years and was 1.2 (0.2-3.4) years for incident CKD after HF diagnosis (P < 0.001). The crude incidence of CKD was higher than that of HF: 17.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 17.3-17.9) vs. 10.6 (95% CI 10.4-10.9)/1000 person-years, respectively, but incident HF was associated with a higher adjusted-mortality than incident CKD. The presence of either condition (vs. CKD/HF-free status) was associated with a three-fold hazard of death, whereas concomitant HF and CKD conferred a six to seven-fold adjusted hazard of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Cardiorenal complications are common and are associated with high mortality risk among patients with new-onset T2DM. Close surveillance of these dual complications is crucial to reduce the burden of disease.

Titration of medications and outcomes in multi-ethnic heart failure cohorts (with reduced ejection fraction) from Singapore and New Zealand

AIMS

We investigated titration patterns of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEis)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and beta-blockers, quality of life (QoL) over 6 months, and associated 1 year outcome [all-cause mortality/heart failure (HF) hospitalization] in a real-world population with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants with HFrEF (left ventricular ejection fraction <40%) from a prospective multi-centre study were examined for use and dose [relative to guideline-recommended maintenance dose (GRD)] of ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers at baseline and 6 months. 'Stay low' was defined as <50% GRD at both time points, 'stay high' as ≥50% GRD, and 'up-titrate' and 'down-titrate' as dose trajectories. Among 1110 patients (mean age 63 ± 13 years, 16% women, 26% New York Heart Association Class III/IV), 714 (64%) were multi-ethnic Asians from Singapore and 396 were from New Zealand (mainly European ethnicity). Baseline use of either ACEis/ARBs or beta-blockers was high (87%). Loop diuretic was prescribed in >80% of patients, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist in about half of patients, and statins in >90% of patients. At baseline, only 11% and 9% received 100% GRD for each drug class, respectively, with about half (47%) achieving ≥50% GRD for ACEis/ARBs or beta-blockers. At 6 months, a large majority remained in the 'stay low' category, one third remained in 'stay high', whereas 10-16% up-titrated and 4-6% down-titrated. Patients with lower (vs. higher) N-terminal pro-beta-type natriuretic peptide levels were more likely to be up-titrated or be in 'stay high' for ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers (P = 0.002). Ischaemic aetiology, prior HF hospitalization, and enrolment in Singapore (vs. New Zealand) were independently associated with higher odds of 'staying low' (all P < 0.005) for prescribed doses of ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers. Adjusted for inverse probability weighting, ≥100% GRD for ACEis/ARBs [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.42; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24-0.73] and ≥50% GRD for beta-blockers (HR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.37-0.90) (vs. Nil) were associated with lower hazards for 1 year composite outcome. Country of enrolment did not modify the associations of dose categories with 1 year composite outcome. Higher medication doses were associated with greater improvements in QoL.

CONCLUSIONS

Although HF medication use at baseline was high, most patients did not have these medications up-titrated over 6 months. Multiple clinical factors were associated with changes in medication dosages. Further research is urgently needed to investigate the causes of lack of up-titration of HF therapy (and its frequency), which could inform strategies for timely up-titration of HF therapy based on clinical and biochemical parameters.

Incidence, Clinical Correlates, and Prognostic Impact of Dementia in Heart Failure: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Heart failure (HF) may increase the risk of dementia via shared risk factors.

Objectives

The authors investigated the incidence, types, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of dementia in a population-based cohort of patients with index HF.

Methods

The previously territory-wide database was interrogated to identify eligible patients with HF (N = 202,121) from 1995 to 2018. Clinical correlates of incident dementia and their associations with all-cause mortality were assessed using multivariable Cox/competing risk regression models where appropriate.

Results

Among a total cohort aged ≥18 years with HF (mean age 75.3 ± 13.0 years, 51.3% women, median follow-up 4.1 [IQR: 1.2-10.2] years), new-onset dementia occurred in 22,145 (11.0%), with age-standardized incidence rate of 1,297 (95% CI: 1,276-1,318) per 10,000 in women and 744 (723-765) per 10,000 in men. Types of dementia were Alzheimer's disease (26.8%), vascular dementia (18.1%), and unspecified dementia (55.1%). Independent predictors of dementia included: older age (≥75 years, subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR]: 2.22), female sex (SHR: 1.31), Parkinson's disease (SHR: 1.28), peripheral vascular disease (SHR: 1.46), stroke (SHR: 1.24), anemia (SHR: 1.11), and hypertension (SHR: 1.21). The population attributable risk was highest for age ≥75 years (17.4%) and female sex (10.2%). New-onset dementia was independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted SHR: 4.51; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

New-onset dementia affected more than 1 in 10 patients with index HF over the follow-up, and portended a worse prognosis in these patients. Older women were at highest risk and should be targeted for screening and preventive strategies.

Patient-Reported Versus Physician-Assessed Health Status in Heart Failure With Reduced and Preserved Ejection Fraction From ASIAN-HF Registry

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess if discordance between patient-reported Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ)-overall summary (os) score and physician-assessed New York Heart Association (NYHA) class is common among patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced or preserved ejection fraction, and determine its association with outcomes.

METHODS

A total of 4818 patients with HF were classified according to KCCQ-os score (range 0-100, dichotomized by median value 71.9 into high [good] versus low [bad]) and NYHA class (I/II [good] or III/IV [bad]) as concordant good (low NYHA class, high KCCQ-os score), concordant bad (high NYHA class, low KCCQ-os score), discordant worse NYHA class (high NYHA class, high KCCQ-os score), and discordant worse KCCQ-os score (low NYHA class, low-KCCQ-os score). The composite of HF hospitalization or death at 1 year was compared across groups.

RESULTS

There were 2070 (43.0%) concordant good, 1099 (22.8%) concordant bad, 331 (6.9%) discordant worse NYHA class, and 1318 (27.4%) discordant worse KCCQ-os score patients. Compared with concordant good, adverse outcomes were the highest in concordant bad (HR, 2.7 [95% CI, 2.2-3.5]) followed by discordant worse KCCQ-os score (HR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.4-2.2]) and discordant worse NYHA class (HR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.0-2.3]); with no modification by HF phenotype (preserved versus reduced ejection fraction, P_interaction=0.52). At 6 months, 1403 (48%) experienced clinically significant improvement in KCCQ-os score (≥5 points increase over 6 months). Patients with improved KCCQ-os at 6 months (HR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.47-0.92]) had better outcomes and the association was not modified by HF phenotype (P_interaction=0.40).

CONCLUSIONS

One-third of patients with HF had discordance between patient-reported and clinician-assessed health status, largely attributable to worse patient-reported outcomes. Such discordance, particularly in those with discordantly worse KCCQ, should alert physicians to an increased risk of HF hospitalization and death, and prompt further assessment for potential drivers of worse patient-reported outcomes relative to physicians' assessment.

Epidemiology and Clinical Features of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

Heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection (HFpEF) constitutes a large and growing proportion of patients with HF around the world, and is now responsible for more than half of all HF cases in ageing societies. While classically described as a condition of elderly, hypertensive women, recent studies suggest heterogeneity in clinical phenotypes involving differential characteristics and pathophysiological mechanisms. Despite a paucity of disease-modifying therapy for HFpEF, an understanding of phenotypic similarities and differences among patients with HFpEF around the world provides the foundation to recognise the clinical condition for early treatment, as well as to identify modifiable risk factors for preventive intervention. This review summarises the epidemiology of HFpEF, its common clinical features and risk factors, as well as differences by age, comorbidities, race/ethnicity and geography.

Incidence, clinical correlates and associated outcomes of dementia in heart failure: a population-based cohort study

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Dementia, in the setting of heart failure (HF), portends poorer outcomes and poses great challenges in its clinical management.

Purpose

We investigated the incidence, types, clinical correlates, and the prognostic impact of dementia in a population-based cohort of patients with HF. Further, we examined the interactions of age and sex, and education status with dementia incidence.

Methods

The previously validated Hong Kong Clinical Data Analysis Reporting System (CDARS), a territory-wide database was interrogated to identify patients with HF (N= 202,121) from 1995 to 2018. Associations of clinical correlates with incident dementia and its risk with all-cause mortality were assessed using competing risk/multivariable Cox regression models where appropriate.

Results

Among a total cohort aged ≥18 years with HF (mean age: 75.3 ± 13.0 years, 51.3% women), new-onset dementia occurred in 22,145 (11.0%) over a median follow-up of 5.5 years. Alzheimer’s disease occurred in 27.0%; vascular dementia (18.1%) and unspecified dementia (in 55.1%). Age-standardized rate of dementia incidence in women was 1297 (95%CI, 1276-1318) (vs. 744, 95%CI, 723-765) per 10000 population in men. Other independent predictors of dementia include: Increasing age (HR 1.08), Female sex (HR 1.19), Nil/&lt; primary (vs tertiary) education (HR 1.29), Parkinson’s disease (HR 1.73), head injury (HR 1.37), peripheral vascular disease (HR 1.31), stroke (HR 1.29), depression (HR 1.18), alcohol intake (HR1.17), anaemia (HR 1.14), hypertension (HR 1.08), among other common comorbidities in HF (Figure 1A).

Notably, a significant interaction (p &lt; 0.001) between age and sex on dementia incidence was observed, such that women in all age groups were observed to have higher sHR compared to men (Figure 1B). After accounting for competing risk, dementia was not associated with adjusted hazard of all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

Female sex, lower socioeconomic status, increasing age and common comorbidities were associated with higher hazards of incident dementia. Abstract Figure 1A and Figure 1B

Prevalence and Prognostic Significance of Frailty in Asian Patients With Heart Failure

Background

Frailty is common in patients with heart failure (HF) and can adversely impact outcomes.

Objectives

This study examined the prevalence of frailty among Asian patients with HF, its association with 1-year outcomes, and if race-ethnicity, HF subtypes, and sex modify this relationship.

Methods

In the multinational ASIAN-HF (Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure) registry, a baseline frailty index (FI) was constructed using a cumulative deficits approach with 48 baseline variables, and patients were followed for the 1-year primary outcome of all-cause death or HF hospitalization.

Results

Among 3,881 participants (age 61 ± 13 years, 27% female), the mean FI was 0.28 ± 0.11, and 69% were frail (FI >0.21). Higher FI was associated with older age, Malay ethnicity, and Southeast Asian residency. While comorbidities were more frequent in frail patients (by definition), body mass index was not different across frailty classes. Compared with FI class 1 (<0.21, nonfrail), FI class 2 (0.21-0.31) and FI class 3 (>0.31) had increased risk of the 1-year composite outcome (hazard ratios of 1.84 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42-2.38] and 4.51 [95% CI: 3.59-5.67], respectively), even after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratios of 1.49 [95% CI: 1.13-1.97] and 2.69 [95% CI: 2.06-3.50], respectively). Race-ethnicity modified the association of frailty with the composite outcome (P_interaction = 0.0097), wherein the impact of frailty was strongest among Chinese patients. The association between frailty and outcomes did not differ between men and women (P_interaction = 0.186) or for HF with reduced ejection fraction versus HF with preserved ejection fraction (P_interaction = 0.094).

Conclusions

Most Asian patients with HF are frail despite relatively young age. Our results reveal specific ethnic (Malay) and regional (Southeast Asia) predisposition to frailty and highlight its prognostic importance, especially in Chinese individuals. (ASIAN HF Registry, A Prospective Observational Study [ASIANHF]; NCT01633398)

Readmissions, Death and Its Associated Predictors in Heart Failure With Preserved Versus Reduced Ejection Fraction

Background

Data on rehospitalizations for heart failure (HF) in Asia are scarce. We sought to determine the burden and predictors of HF (first and recurrent) rehospitalizations and all‐cause mortality in patients with HF and preserved versus reduced ejection fraction (preserved EF, ≥50%; reduced EF, <40%), in the multinational ASIAN‐HF (Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure) registry.

Methods and Results

Patients with symptomatic (stage C) chronic HF were followed up for death and recurrent HF hospitalizations for 1 year. Predictors of HF hospitalizations or all‐cause mortality were examined with Cox regression for time to first event and other methods for recurrent events analyses. Among 1666 patients with HF with preserved EF (mean age, 68±12 years; 50% women), and 4479 with HF with reduced EF (mean age, 61±13 years; 22% women), there were 642 and 2302 readmissions, with 28% and 45% attributed to HF, respectively. The 1‐year composite event rate for first HF hospitalization or all‐cause death was 11% and 21%, and for total HF hospitalization and all‐cause death was 17.7 and 38.7 per 100 patient‐years in HF with preserved EF and HF with reduced EF, respectively. In HF with preserved EF, consistent independent predictors of these clinical end points included enrollment as an inpatient, Southeast Asian location, and comorbid chronic kidney disease or atrial fibrillation. The same variables were predictive of outcomes in HF with reduced EF except atrial fibrillation, and also included Northeast Asian location, older age, elevated heart rate, decreased systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, and non‐usage of beta blockers.

Conclusions

One‐year HF rehospitalization and mortality rates were high among Asian patients with HF. Predictors of outcomes identified in this study could aid in risk stratification and timely interventions.

Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01633398.

Impact of beta-blocker use on the long-term outcomes of heart failure patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

AIMS

The number of patients with both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart failure (HF) is increasing in Asia, and these conditions often coexist. We previously revealed a tendency of beta-blocker underuse among patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and COPD in Asian countries other than Japan. Here, we evaluated the impact of cardio-selective beta-blocker use on the long-term outcomes of patients with HF and COPD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among the 5232 patients with HFrEF (left ventricular ejection fraction of <40%) prospectively enrolled from 11 Asian regions in the ASIAN-HF registry, 412 (7.9%) had a history of COPD. We compared the clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes of the patients with HF and COPD according to the use and type of beta-blockers used: cardio-selective beta-blockers (n = 149) vs. non-cardio-selective beta-blockers (n = 124) vs. no beta-blockers (n = 139). The heart rate was higher, and the outcome was poorer in the no beta-blocker group than in the beta-blocker groups. The 2 year all-cause mortality was significantly lower in the non-cardio-selective beta-blocker group than in the no beta-blocker group. Further, the cardiovascular mortality significantly decreased in the non-cardio-selective beta-blocker group before (hazard ratio: 0.36; 95% confidence interval: 0.18-0.73; P = 0.004) and after adjustments (hazard ratio: 0.37; 95% confidence interval: 0.19-0.73; P = 0.005), but not in the cardio-selective beta-blocker group.

CONCLUSIONS

Beta-blockers reduced the all-cause mortality of patients with HFrEF and COPD after adjusting for age and heart rate, although the possibility of selection bias could not be completely excluded due to multinational prospective registry.

Statin associated lower cancer risk and related mortality in patients with heart failure

Aims 

Patients with heart failure (HF) have an increased risk of incident cancer. Data relating to the association of statin use with cancer risk and cancer-related mortality among patients with HF are sparse.

Methods and results 

Using a previously validated territory-wide clinical information registry, statin use was ascertained among all eligible patients with HF (n = 87 102) from 2003 to 2015. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to balance baseline covariates between statin nonusers (n = 50 926) with statin users (n = 36 176). Competing risk regression with Cox proportional-hazard models was performed to estimate the risk of cancer and cancer-related mortality associated with statin use. Of all eligible subjects, the mean age was 76.5 ± 12.8 years, and 47.8% was male. Over a median follow-up of 4.1 years (interquartile range: 1.6–6.8), 11 052 (12.7%) were diagnosed with cancer. Statin use (vs. none) was associated with a 16% lower risk of cancer incidence [multivariable adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.80–0.89]. This inverse association with risk of cancer was duration dependent; as compared with short-term statin use (3 months to <2 years), the adjusted SHR was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.87–1.13) for 2 to <4 years of use, 0.82 (95% CI, 0.70–0.97) for 4 to <6 years of use, and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.65–0.93) for ≥6 years of use. Ten-year cancer-related mortality was 3.8% among statin users and 5.2% among nonusers (absolute risk difference, −1.4 percentage points [95% CI, −1.6% to −1.2%]; adjusted SHR = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67–0.81).

Conclusion 

Our study suggests that statin use is associated with a significantly lower risk of incident cancer and cancer-related mortality in HF, an association that appears to be duration dependent.

Electroanatomic Ratios and Mortality in Patients With Heart Failure: Insights from the ASIAN-HF Registry

Background

QRS duration (QRSd) is a marker of electrical remodeling in heart failure. Anthropometrics and left ventricular size may influence QRSd and, in turn, may influence the association between QRSd and heart failure outcomes.

Methods and Results

Using the prospective, multicenter, multinational ASIAN‐HF (Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure) registry, this study evaluated whether electroanatomic ratios (QRSd indexed for height or left ventricular end‐diastole volume) are associated with 1‐year mortality in individuals with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. The study included 4899 individuals (aged 60±19 years, 78% male, mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 27.3±7.1%). In the overall cohort, QRSd was not associated with all‐cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.003; 95% CI, 0.999–1.006, P=0.142) or sudden cardiac death (HR, 1.006; 95% CI, 1.000–1.013, P=0.059). QRS/height was associated with all‐cause mortality (HR, 1.165; 95% CI, 1.046–1.296, P=0.005 with interaction by sex p_interaction=0.020) and sudden cardiac death (HR, 1.270; 95% CI, 1.021–1.580, P=0.032). QRS/left ventricular end‐diastole volume was associated with all‐cause mortality (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.05–1.43, P=0.011) and sudden cardiac death (HR, 1.461; 95% CI, 1.090–1.957, P=0.011) in patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy but not in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (all‐cause mortality: HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.79–1.11, P=0.467; sudden cardiac death: HR, 0.734; 95% CI, 0.477–1.132, P=0.162).

Conclusions

Electroanatomic ratios of QRSd indexed for body size or left ventricular size are associated with mortality in individuals with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. In particular, increased QRS/height may be a marker of high risk in individuals with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and QRS/left ventricular end‐diastole volume may further risk stratify individuals with nonischemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

Registration

URL: https://Clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01633398.

Comparison of Time-Varying and Landmark Analysis Methods in Estimating the Association Between Medication Adherence and Outcomes: A Heart Failure Cohort

IntroductionMedication adherence is associated with a reduction of adverse outcomes in heart failure (HF). However, this association is complex to estimate accurately because adherence (exposure) can vary during the follow-up period. Adherence can be estimated as a fixed exposure to predict outcomes, and this is known as a landmark analysis. In contrast, adherence can also be estimated as a dynamic exposure which varies over time in the follow-up period. This is known as a time-varying analysis and is expected to be the more precise method. Objectives and ApproachWe compared these two methods in a HF cohort. We identified a population-based cohort of 3619 heart failure patients, aged 65-84 years hospitalised in Western Australia from 2003-2007 and who survived to 1-year post-discharge (landmark date). Adherence to renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASI) and β-blockers was calculated using proportion of days covered (PDC) expressed either as a fixed time exposure (in landmark analysis) or a varying exposure (in time-dependent analysis). The latter was updated every 30 days after the landmark date. Cox regression models were used to investigate the association between adherence and all-cause death at 1- and 3-years post-landmark date. ResultsFor 1-year outcomes, hazard ratios (HR) for every 10% increase in PDC were similar between models from landmark analyses (RASI adherence: 0.93, 0.90-0.97; β-blocker adherence: 0.96, 0.92-1.0) and time-dependent analyses (RASI adherence: 0.94, 0.91-0.97; β-blockers adherence: 0.95, 0.92 -0.99). However, 95% confidence intervals estimated from time-dependent models were narrower than those from landmark analyses. HRs were slightly closer to the null when estimated from time-dependent models. A similar pattern was seen with 3-year outcomes. Conclusion / ImplicationsTime-dependent analysis of adherence-outcome associations results in more precise estimates of hazard ratios. Estimates of HRs from landmark analysis models were similar but usually lower than those from time-dependent models.

Patient-reported outcomes in heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction: focus on physical independence

Aims

The Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) is a widely used patient‐reported outcome measure in heart failure (HF). The KCCQ was validated in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), leaving knowledge gaps regarding its applicability in HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). This study addresses the psychometric properties of internal consistency and reliability, construct, and known‐group validity of KCCQ in both HFrEF and HFpEF. We aimed to evaluate the psychometric properties of the KCCQ and their prognostic significance in HFpEF and HFrEF, within a large prospective multinational HF cohort.

Methods and results

We examined the 23‐item KCCQ in the prospective multinational ASIAN‐HF study [4470 HFrEF (ejection fraction <40%); 921 HFpEF (ejection fraction ≥50%)]. Internal consistency (using Cronbach's alpha) showed high reliability in HFrEF and HFpeF: functional status score: 0.89 and 0.91 and clinical summary score: 0.89 and 0.90, respectively. Confirmatory factor analysis in HFrEF validated the five original domains of KCCQ (physical function, symptoms, self‐efficacy, social limitation, and quality of life); in HFpEF, questions measuring physical function and social limitation had strong correlation (r = 0.66) and different domains emerged. We proposed an additional physical independence summary score, especially in HFpEF (comprising the original physical function and social limitation domains), which showed good internal consistency (α = 0.89) and has comparable receiver operating characteristic curve 0.766 ± 0.037 with the clinical summary score (receiver operating characteristic curve 0.774 ± 0.037), in predicting 1 year death and/or HF hospitalization.

Conclusions

Our results confirmed the robustness of the KCCQ clinical summary score in HF regardless of ejection fraction group. In the assessment of physical capacity in HFpEF, our results suggest strong interaction with social limitation, and we propose a summary score comprising both components be used.

Long-Term Adherence to Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors and β-Blockers After Heart Failure Hospitalization in Senior Patients

AIMS

We investigated long-term adherence to renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASIs) and β-blockers, and associated predictors, in senior patients after hospitalization for heart failure (HF).

METHODS

A population-based data set identified 4488 patients who survived 60 days following their index hospitalization for HF in Western Australia from 2003 to 2008 with a 3-year follow-up. Their person-linked Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme records identified medications dispensed during follow-up. Drug discontinuation was defined as the first break ≥90 days following the previous supply. Medication adherence was calculated using the proportion of days covered (PDC), with PDC ≥ 80% defined as being adherent. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of PDC < 80%.

RESULTS

In the cohort (57% male, mean age: 76.6 years), 77.4% were dispensed a RASI and 52.7% a β-blocker within 60 days postdischarge. Over the 3-year follow-up, 28% and 42% of patients discontinued RASI and β-blockers, respectively. Only 64.6% and 47.5% of RASI and β-blocker users, respectively, were adherent to their treatment over 3 years, with adherence decreasing over time (trend P < .0001 for RASI and trend P = .02 for β-blockers). Older age, increasing Charlson comorbidity score, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were independent predictors of PDC < 80% for both drug groups.

CONCLUSION

Among seniors hospitalized for HF, discontinuation gaps were common for RASI and β-blockers postdischarge, and long-term adherence to these medications was suboptimal. Where appropriate, strategies to improve long-term medication adherence are indicated in HF patients, particularly in elderly patients with comorbidities.

Ethnic differences in atrial fibrillation among patients with heart failure in Asia

AIMS

We aimed to characterize ethnic differences in prevalence, clinical correlates, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) in heart failure (HF) with preserved and reduced ejection fraction (HFpEF and HFrEF) across Asia.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among 5504 patients with HF prospectively recruited across 11 Asian regions using identical protocols in the Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure study (mean age 61 ± 13 years, 27% women, 83% HFrEF), 1383 (25%) had AF defined as a history of AF and/or AF/flutter on baseline electrocardiogram. Clinical correlates of AF were similar across ethnicities and included older age, prior stroke, higher NT-proBNP, and larger left atria. Diabetes was associated with lower odds of AF in HFrEF [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.79, 95% CI 0.66-0.95] and HFpEF (AOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.84) regardless of ethnicity. Compared with Chinese ethnicity, Japanese/Koreans had higher odds of AF in HFrEF (AOR 1.76, 95% CI 1.40-2.21), while Indians had lower odds in HFrEF (AOR 0.18, 95% CI 0.13-0.24) and HFpEF (AOR 0.28, 95% CI 0.16-0.49) even after adjusting for clinical covariates. Interaction between ethnicity and region was observed among Indians, with Southeast Asian Indians having higher odds of AF (AOR 3.01, 95% CI 1.60-5.67) compared with South Asian Indians. AF was associated with poorer quality of life and increased risk of 1 year all-cause mortality or HF hospitalisation (adjusted hazard ratio 1.39, 95% CI 1.18-1.63) regardless of ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with HF across Asia, clinical correlates and adverse outcomes associated with AF are similar across ethnicities; however, there are striking ethnic variations in the prevalence of AF that are not accounted for by known risk factors.

Regional Variation of Mortality in Heart Failure With Reduced and Preserved Ejection Fraction Across Asia: Outcomes in the ASIAN-HF Registry

Background

Data comparing outcomes in heart failure (HF) across Asia are limited. We examined regional variation in mortality among patients with HF enrolled in the ASIAN‐HF (Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure) registry with separate analyses for those with reduced ejection fraction (EF; <40%) versus preserved EF (≥50%).

Methods and Results

The ASIAN‐HF registry is a prospective longitudinal study. Participants with symptomatic HF were recruited from 46 secondary care centers in 3 Asian regions: South Asia (India), Southeast Asia (Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore), and Northeast Asia (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China). Overall, 6480 patients aged >18 years with symptomatic HF were recruited (mean age: 61.6±13.3 years; 27% women; 81% with HF and reduced rEF). The primary outcome was 1‐year all‐cause mortality. Striking regional variations in baseline characteristics and outcomes were observed. Regardless of HF type, Southeast Asians had the highest burden of comorbidities, particularly diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, despite being younger than Northeast Asian participants. One‐year, crude, all‐cause mortality for the whole population was 9.6%, higher in patients with HF and reduced EF (10.6%) than in those with HF and preserved EF (5.4%). One‐year, all‐cause mortality was significantly higher in Southeast Asian patients (13.0%), compared with South Asian (7.5%) and Northeast Asian patients (7.4%; P<0.001). Well‐known predictors of death accounted for only 44.2% of the variation in risk of mortality.

Conclusions

This first multinational prospective study shows that the outcomes in Asian patients with both HF and reduced or preserved EF are poor overall and worst in Southeast Asian patients. Region‐specific risk factors and gaps in guideline‐directed therapy should be addressed to potentially improve outcomes.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT01633398.

Microvascular Disease in Patients With Diabetes With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Versus Preserved Ejection Fraction

OBJECTIVE

Microvascular complications are common among patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). The presence of heart failure (HF) is presumed to be due to macrovascular disease (typically HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] following myocardial infarction). We hypothesized that HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) in patients with DM may be a manifestation of microvascular disease compared with HFrEF. The objective of this study was to examine the prevalence and association with clinical outcome of microvascular complications in patients with HF and DM.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We investigated the prevalence, association with clinical outcome, and cardiac structure and function of microvascular (neuropathy, nephropathy, and retinopathy) complications of DM in 2,800 prospectively enrolled participants with HF and DM (561 with HFpEF) from the Asian Sudden Cardiac Death In Heart Failure (ASIAN-HF) registry.

RESULTS

A total of 601 (21.5%) participants with DM had microvascular complications. Participants with DM and any (one or more) microvascular complications were more likely to have HFpEF (odds ratio 1.70 [95% CI 1.15-2.50]; P = 0.008). Furthermore, the likelihood of having HFpEF increased with an increasing number of microvascular complications (P _trend < 0.001). Microvascular complications were associated with more left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy and a greater reduction in quality of life in HFpEF than HFrEF (P _interaction < 0.001 for all). Compared with participants with DM and without microvascular complications, the adjusted hazard ratio for the composite outcome of all-cause death or HF hospitalization was 1.35 (95% CI 1.04-1.76) for participants with DM and microvascular complications regardless of HF type (P _interaction = 0.112).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetic microvascular disease is more common, and related to greater LV remodeling, more impairment of quality in life, and similar adverse outcomes, in participants with HFpEF compared with HFrEF. HFpEF may be a clinical manifestation of microvascular disease in DM.

Association of Diabetes Mellitus on Cardiac Remodeling, Quality of Life, and Clinical Outcomes in Heart Failure With Reduced and Preserved Ejection Fraction

Background

Diabetes mellitus frequently coexists with heart failure (HF), but few studies have compared the associations between diabetes mellitus and cardiac remodeling, quality of life, and clinical outcomes, according to HF phenotype.

Methods and Results

We compared echocardiographic parameters, quality of life (assessed by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire), and outcomes (1‐year all‐cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and HF hospitalization) between HF patients with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus in the prospective ASIAN‐HF (Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure) Registry, as well as community‐based controls without HF. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of diabetes mellitus with clinical outcomes. Among 5028 patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; EF <40%) and 1139 patients with HF and preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥50%), the prevalences of type 2 diabetes mellitus were 40.2% and 45.0%, respectively (P=0.003). In both HFrEF and HFpEF cohorts, diabetes mellitus (versus no diabetes mellitus) was associated with smaller indexed left ventricular diastolic volumes and higher mitral E/e′ ratio. There was a predominance of eccentric hypertrophy in HFrEF and concentric hypertrophy in HFpEF. Patients with diabetes mellitus had lower Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores in both HFpEF and HFrEF, with more prominent differences in HFpEF (P_interaction<0.05). In both HFpEF and HFrEF, patients with diabetes mellitus had more HF rehospitalizations (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05–1.54; P=0.014) and higher 1‐year rates of the composite of all‐cause mortality/HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.05–1.41; P=0.011), with no differences between HF phenotypes (P_interaction>0.05).

Conclusions

In HFpEF and HFrEF, type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with smaller left ventricular volumes, higher mitral E/e′ ratio, poorer quality of life, and worse outcomes, with several differences noted between HF phenotypes.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01633398.

Ethnic differences in atrial fibrillation in patients with heart failure from Asia-Pacific

OBJECTIVE

Ethnic differences in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in heart failure (HF) remain unclear. We compared the prevalence and clinical correlates of AF among different ethnicities in an Asian-Pacific population with HF.

METHODS

Patients with validated HF were prospectively studied across Singapore and New Zealand (NZ).

RESULTS

Among 1746 patients with HF (62% Asian, 26% women, mean age 66 (SD 13) years, mean ejection fraction (EF) 37 (SD 16%), 39% had AF. The prevalence of AF was markedly lower in Singapore-Asians than NZ-Europeans (24% vs 63%; p<0.001), even after adjusting for age, clinical and echocardiographic covariates, regardless of EF group (p_interaction for EF=0.39). Patients with AF were older, had higher body mass index and were more likely to have a history of hypertension, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, renal disease, chronic respiratory disease and increased alcohol intake, but less likely to have diabetes. Clinical correlates were similar for Asians and NZ-Europeans, except diabetes: Asian diabetic patients with HF had less AF compared with Asian patients without diabetes (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.88), whereas among NZ-Europeans there was no significant association between diabetes and AF (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.75) (p_interaction for ethnicity=0.01). AF was associated with a higher crude composite outcome of mortality and HF hospitalisations at 2 years (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.38).

CONCLUSION

There is a strikingly lower prevalence of AF among Asian compared with NZ-European patients with HF. The underlying mechanisms for the lower prevalence of AF among Asians, particularly in the presence of diabetes, deserve further study.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12610000374066.

Impact of diabetes and sex in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction patients from the ASIAN-HF registry

AIMS

To examine sex differences in clinical characteristics, echocardiographic features, quality of life and 1-year death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization outcomes in patients with/without diabetes mellitus (DM).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Utilizing the Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in HF (ASIAN-HF) registry, 5255 patients (mean age 59.6 ± 13.1, 78% men) with symptomatic HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were stratified by DM status to address the research aims. Despite similar prevalence of DM between Asian men (43%) and women (42%), the odds of DM increased at lower body mass index in women vs. men (≥ 23 vs. ≥ 27.5 kg/m² , P_interaction  = 0.014). DM was more strongly related to chronic kidney disease in women vs. men [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-2.57 vs. OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.11-1.56, P_interaction  = 0.009]. Sex also modified the relationship between DM and left ventricular geometry (P_interaction  = 0.003), whereby DM was associated with a more concentric left ventricular geometry in women than men. Women had lower quality of life than men (P < 0.001), in both DM and non-DM groups. DM was associated with worse composite outcomes at 1 year in women vs. men [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% CI 1.24-2.60 vs. HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.12-1.56; P_interaction  = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Asian women with HFrEF were more likely to have DM despite a lean body mass index, a greater burden of chronic kidney disease and more concentric left ventricular geometry, compared to men. Furthermore, DM confers worse quality of life, irrespective of sex, and a greater risk of adverse outcomes in women than men. These data underscore the need for sex-specific approaches to diabetes in patients with HF.

The 3A3B score: The simple risk score for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction - A report from the CHART-2 Study

BACKGROUND

Few simple risk models, without echocardiography have been developed for patients with heart failure (HF) and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HFpEF).

METHODS

To develop a risk score to predict all-cause death for HFpEF patients, we examined 1277 HF patients with LVEF ≥50% and BNP ≥100 pg/ml in the CHART-2 Study, a large-scale prospective cohort study for HF in Japan. We selected the optimal subset of covariates for the score with Cox proportional hazard models and random survival forests (RSF).

RESULTS

During the median 5.7-year follow-up, 576 deaths occurred. Cox models and RSF analyses consistently indicated age ≥75 years, albumin <3.7 g/dl, anemia, BMI <22 kg/m², BNP ≥300 pg/ml (or NT-proBNP ≥1400 pg/ml), and BUN ≥25 mg/dl, as the important 6 prognostic variables. Incorporating these 6 variables, we developed a scoring system (3A3B score, with 2 points given to age ≥75 years and 1 point to the others based on the hazard ratios. The discrimination ability of the risk score was excellent (c-index 0.708). Regarding model goodness-of-fit, the overall gradient in 5-year risk was well captured by the score. The predictive accuracy of the 3A3B score was confirmed in the external validation cohorts from the TOPCAT trial (N = 835, c-index 0.652) and the ASIAN-HF registry (N = 170, c-index 0.741).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a simple risk score to predict long-term prognosis of HFpEF patients. The 3A3B score, comprising 6 commonly available parameters in daily practice, has potential utility in the risk stratification and management of HFpEF patients.

Patterns of Medicare-funded primary health and specialist consultations in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians in the two years before hospitalisation for ischaemic heart disease

BACKGROUND

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality for both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. Patterns of primary and specialist care in patients leading up to the first hospitalisation for IHD potentially impact on prevention and subsequent outcomes. We investigated the differences in general practice (GP), specialist and emergency department (ED) consultations, and associated resource use in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in the two years preceding hospitalisation for IHD.

METHODS

Linked-data were used to identify first IHD admissions for Western Australians aged 25-74 years in 2002-2007. Person-linked GP, specialist and ED consultations were obtained from the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) and ED records to assess health care access and costs for the preceding 2 years.

RESULTS

Aboriginal people constituted 4.7% of 27,230 IHD patients, 3.5% of 1,348,238 MBS records, and 14% of 33,170 ED presentations. Aboriginal (vs. non-Aboriginal) people were younger (mean 50.2 vs 60.5 years), more commonly women (45.2% vs 28.4%), had more comorbidities [Charlson index≥1, 35.2% vs 26.3%], were more likely to have had GP visits (adjusted rate-ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.12), long/prolonged (16.0% vs 11.9%) consults and non-vocationally registered GP consults (17.1% vs 3.2%), but less likely to received specialist consults (mean 1.0 vs 4.1). Mean number of urgent/semi-urgent ED presentations in the year preceding the IHD admission was higher in Aboriginal people (2.9 vs 1.9). Aboriginal people incurred 2.7% of total associated MBS expenditure (estimated at $59.7 million). Mean total cost per person was 43.3% lower in Aboriginal patients, with cost differentials being greatest in diabetic and chronic kidney disease patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite being over-represented in urgent/semi-urgent ED presentations and admissions for IHD, Aboriginal people were under-resourced compared with the rest of the population, particularly in terms of specialist care prior to first IHD hospitalisation. The findings underscore the need for better primary and specialist shared care delivery models particularly for Aboriginal people.

Disparity Between Indications for and Utilization of Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators in Asian Patients With Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) are lifesaving devices for patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction. However, utilization and determinants of ICD insertion in Asia are poorly defined. We determined the utilization, associations of ICD uptake, patient-perceived barriers to device therapy and, impact of ICDs on mortality in Asian patients with HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using the prospective ASIAN-HF (Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure) registry, 5276 patients with symptomatic HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) from 11 Asian regions and across 3 income regions (high: Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; middle: China, Malaysia, and Thailand; and low: India, Indonesia, and Philippines) were studied. ICD utilization, clinical characteristics, as well as device perception and knowledge, were assessed at baseline among ICD-eligible patients (EF ≤35% and New York Heart Association Class II-III). Patients were followed for the primary outcome of all-cause mortality. Among 3240 ICD-eligible patients (mean age 58.9±12.9 years, 79.1% men), 389 (12%) were ICD recipients. Utilization varied across Asia (from 1.5% in Indonesia to 52.5% in Japan) with a trend toward greater uptake in regions with government reimbursement for ICDs and lower out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure. ICD (versus non-ICD) recipients were more likely to be older (63±11 versus 58±13 year; P<0.001), have tertiary (versus ≤primary) education (34.9% versus 18.1%; P<0.001) and be residing in a high (versus low) income region (64.5% versus 36.5%; P<0.001). Among 2000 ICD nonrecipients surveyed, 55% were either unaware of the benefits of, or needed more information on, device therapy. ICD implantation reduced risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.97) and sudden cardiac deaths (hazard ratio, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-0.79) over a median follow-up of 417 days.

CONCLUSIONS

ICDs reduce mortality risk, yet utilization in Asia is low; with disparity across geographic regions and socioeconomic status. Better patient education and targeted healthcare reforms in extending ICD reimbursement may improve access.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01633398. Unique identifier: NCT01633398.

Correction: Multimorbidity in patients with heart failure from 11 Asian regions: A prospective cohort study using the ASIAN-HF registry

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002541.].

Multimorbidity in patients with heart failure from 11 Asian regions: A prospective cohort study using the ASIAN-HF registry

BACKGROUND

Comorbidities are common in patients with heart failure (HF) and complicate treatment and outcomes. We identified patterns of multimorbidity in Asian patients with HF and their association with patients' quality of life (QoL) and health outcomes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used data on 6,480 patients with chronic HF (1,204 with preserved ejection fraction) enrolled between 1 October 2012 and 6 October 2016 in the Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure (ASIAN-HF) registry. The ASIAN-HF registry is a prospective cohort study, with patients prospectively enrolled from in- and outpatient clinics from 11 Asian regions (Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, Japan, Korea, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and Philippines). Latent class analysis was used to identify patterns of multimorbidity. The primary outcome was defined as a composite of all-cause mortality or HF hospitalization within 1 year. To assess differences in QoL, we used the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire. We identified 5 distinct multimorbidity groups: elderly/atrial fibrillation (AF) (N = 1,048; oldest, more AF), metabolic (N = 1,129; obesity, diabetes, hypertension), young (N = 1,759; youngest, low comorbidity rates, non-ischemic etiology), ischemic (N = 1,261; ischemic etiology), and lean diabetic (N = 1,283; diabetic, hypertensive, low prevalence of obesity, high prevalence of chronic kidney disease). Patients in the lean diabetic group had the worst QoL, more severe signs and symptoms of HF, and the highest rate of the primary combined outcome within 1 year (29% versus 11% in the young group) (p for all <0.001). Adjusting for confounders (demographics, New York Heart Association class, and medication) the lean diabetic (hazard ratio [HR] 1.79, 95% CI 1.46-2.22), elderly/AF (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.26-1.96), ischemic (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.22-1.88), and metabolic (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.02-1.60) groups had higher rates of the primary combined outcome compared to the young group. Potential limitations include site selection and participation bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Asian patients with HF, comorbidities naturally clustered in 5 distinct patterns, each differentially impacting patients' QoL and health outcomes. These data underscore the importance of studying multimorbidity in HF and the need for more comprehensive approaches in phenotyping patients with HF and multimorbidity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01633398.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and β-blocker treatment in Asian patients with heart failure

Aims

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart failure (HF) are increasingly frequent in Asia and commonly coexist in patients. However, the prevalence of COPD among Asian patients with HF and its impact on HF treatment are unclear.

Methods and results

We compared clinical characteristics and treatment approaches between patients with or without a history of COPD, before and after 1:2 propensity matching (for age, sex, geographical region, income level, and ethnic group) in 5232 prospectively recruited patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF, <40%) from 11 Asian regions (Northeast Asia: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China; South Asia: India; Southeast Asia: Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore). Among the 5232 patients with HFrEF, a history of COPD was present in 8.3% (n = 434), with significant variation in geography (11.0% in Northeast Asia vs. 4.7% in South Asia), regional income level (9.7% in high income vs. 5.8% in low income), and ethnicity (17.0% in Filipinos vs. 5.2% in Indians) (all P < 0.05). Use of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists and diuretics was similar between groups, while usage of all β‐blockers was lower in the COPD group than in the non‐COPD group in the overall (66.3% vs. 79.9%) and propensity‐matched cohorts (66.3% vs. 81.7%) (all P < 0.05). A striking exception was the Japanese cohort in which β‐blocker use was high in COPD and non‐COPD patients (95.2% vs. 91.2%).

Conclusions

The prevalence of COPD in HFrEF varied across Asia and was related to underuse of β‐blockers, except in Japan.

Multinational and multiethnic variations in health-related quality of life in patients with chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Assessing health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with heart failure (HF) is an important goal of clinical care and HF research. We sought to investigate ethnic differences in perceived HRQoL and its association with mortality among patients with HF and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35%, controlling for demographic characteristics and HF severity.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We compared 5697 chronic HF patients of Indian (26%), white (23%), Chinese (17%), Japanese/Koreans (12%), black (12%), and Malay (10%) ethnicities from the HF-ACTION and ASIAN-HF multinational studies using the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ; range 0-100; higher scores reflect better health status). KCCQ scores were lowest in Malay (58±22) and Chinese (60±23), intermediate in black (64±21) and Indian (65±23), and highest in white (67±20) and Japanese or Korean patients (67±22) after adjusting for age, sex, educational status, HF severity, and risk factors. Self-efficacy, which measures confidence in the ability to manage symptoms, was lower in all Asian ethnicities (especially Japanese/Koreans [60±26], Malay [66±23], and Chinese [64±28]) compared to black (80±21) and white (82±19) patients, even after multivariable adjustment (P<.001). In all ethnicities, KCCQ strongly predicted 1-year mortality (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.30-0.67 for highest vs lowest quintile of KCCQ; P for interaction by ethnicity .101).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, HRQoL is inversely and independently related to mortality in chronic HF but is not modified by ethnicity. Nevertheless, ethnic differences exist independent of HF severity and comorbidities. These data may have important implications for future global clinical HF trials that use patient-reported outcomes as endpoints.

Long-term use of secondary prevention medications for heart failure in Western Australia: a protocol for a population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, debilitating and progressive disease associated with high morbidity and mortality. Evidence-based medications (EBMs) are the cornerstone of management of patients with HF. In Australia, these EBMs are subsidised by the Commonwealth Government under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Suboptimal dispensing and non-adherence to these EBMs have been observed in patients with HF. Our study will investigate trends in dispensing patterns, as well as adherence and persistence of EBMs for HF. We will also identify factors influencing these patterns and their impact on long-term clinical outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This whole population-based cohort study will use longitudinal data for people aged 65-84 years who were hospitalised for HF in Western Australia between 2003 and 2008. Linked state-wide and national data will provide patient-level information on medication dispensing, medical visits, hospitalisations and death. Drug dispensing trends will be described, drug adherence and persistence estimated and the association with all-cause/cardiovascular death and hospitalisations reported.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This project has received approvals from the Western Australian Department of Health Human Research Ethics Committee and the Western Australian Aboriginal Health Ethics Committee. Results will be published in relevant cardiology journals and presented at national and international conferences.

Current and projected burden of heart failure in the Australian adult population: a substantive but still ill-defined major health issue

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive epidemiological data to describe the burden of heart failure (HF) in Australia remain lacking despite its importance as a major health issue. Herewith, we estimate the current and future burden of HF in Australia using best available data.

METHODS

Australian-specific and the most congruent international epidemiological and health utilisation data were applied to the Australian population (adults aged ≥ 45 years, 8.9 of 22.7 million total population in 2014) on an age and sex-specific basis. We estimated the current incident and prevalent cases of clinically overt/symptomatic HF (predominately those with reduced ejection fraction), hospital activity (diagnosis of HF as a primary or secondary reason for admission) and health care costs in 2014 and future prevalence and burden of HF projected to 2030.

RESULTS

We estimated that over 61,000 (6.9 per 1000 person-years) adult Australians aged ≥ 45 years (58 % women) are diagnosed with HF with clinically overt signs and symptoms every year. On a conservative basis, 480,000 (6.3 %, 95 % CI 2.6 to 10.0 %) Australians (66 % men) are now affected by the syndrome with > 150,000 hospitalisations in excess of 1 million days in hospital per annum. The annual cost of managing HF in the community is approximately $900 million and nearly $2.7 billion ($1.5 versus $1.2 billion, men versus women) when considering the additional cost of in-patient care. We predict that the prevalence and future burden of HF will continue to increase over the next 10-15 years to nearly 750,000 people with an estimated annual health care cost of $3.8 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Australia is not immune to the growing magnitude and implications of a sustained epidemic of HF in an ageing population. However, its public health and economic burden will remain ill-defined until more definitive Australian-specific data are generated.

Regional and ethnic differences among patients with heart failure in Asia: the Asian sudden cardiac death in heart failure registry

AIMS

To characterize regional and ethnic differences in heart failure (HF) across Asia.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We prospectively studied 5276 patients with stable HF and reduced ejection fraction (≤40%) from 11 Asian regions (China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand). Mean age was 59.6 ± 13.1 years, 78.2% were men, and mean body mass index was 24.9 ± 5.1 kg/m². Majority (64%) of patients had two or more comorbid conditions such as hypertension (51.9%), coronary artery disease (CAD, 50.2%), or diabetes (40.4%). The prevalence of CAD was highest in Southeast Asians (58.8 vs. 38.2% in Northeast Asians). Compared with Chinese ethnicity, Malays (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.97, 95% CI 1.63-2.38) and Indians (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.24-1.68) had higher odds of CAD, whereas Koreans (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.29-0.50) and Japanese (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.36-0.55) had lower odds. The prevalence of hypertension and diabetes was highest in Southeast Asians (64.2 and 49.3%, respectively) and high-income regions (59.7 and 46.2%, respectively). There was significant interaction between ethnicity and region, where the adjusted odds were 3.95 (95% CI 2.51-6.21) for hypertension and 4.91 (95% CI 3.07-7.87) for diabetes among Indians from high- vs. low-income regions; and 2.60 (95% CI 1.66-4.06) for hypertension and 2.62 (95% CI 1.73-3.97) for diabetes among Malays from high- vs. low-income regions.

CONCLUSIONS

These first prospective multi-national data from Asia highlight the significant heterogeneity among Asian patients with stable HF, and the important influence of both ethnicity and regional income level on patient characteristics.

CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER

NCT01633398.

Factors contributing to delayed diagnosis of cancer among Aboriginal people in Australia: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Delayed presentation of symptomatic cancer is associated with poorer survival. Aboriginal patients with cancer have higher rates of distant metastases at diagnosis compared with non-Aboriginal Australians. This paper examined factors contributing to delayed diagnosis of cancer among Aboriginal Australians from patient and service providers' perspectives.

METHODS

In-depth, open-ended interviews were conducted in two stages (2006-2007 and 2011). Inductive thematic analysis was assisted by use of NVivo looking around delays in presentation, diagnosis and referral for cancer.

PARTICIPANTS

Aboriginal patients with cancer/family members (n=30) and health service providers (n=62) were recruited from metropolitan Perth and six rural/remote regions of Western Australia.

RESULTS

Three broad themes of factors were identified: (1) Contextual factors such as intergenerational impact of colonisation and racism and socioeconomic deprivation have negatively impacted on Aboriginal Australians' trust of the healthcare professionals; (2) health service-related factors included low accessibility to health services, long waiting periods, inadequate numbers of Aboriginal professionals and high staff turnover; (3) patient appraisal of symptoms and decision-making, fear of cancer and denial of symptoms were key reasons patients procrastinated in seeking help. Elements of shame, embarrassment, shyness of seeing the doctor, psychological 'fear of the whole health system', attachment to the land and 'fear of leaving home' for cancer treatment in metropolitan cities were other deterrents for Aboriginal people. Manifestation of masculinity and the belief that 'health is women's domain' emerged as a reason why Aboriginal men were reluctant to receive health checks.

CONCLUSIONS

Solutions to improved Aboriginal cancer outcomes include focusing on the primary care sector encouraging general practitioners to be proactive to suspicion of symptoms with appropriate investigations to facilitate earlier diagnosis and the need to improve Aboriginal health literacy regarding cancer. Access to health services remains a critical problem affecting timely diagnosis.

Atrial fibrillation in the Indigenous populations of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States: a systematic scoping review

Background

The epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) among Indigenous minorities in affluent countries is poorly delineated, despite the high cardiovascular disease burden in these populations. We undertook a systematic scoping review examining the epidemiology of AF in the Indigenous populations of Australia, Canada, New Zealand (NZ) and the United States (US).

Methods

PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE and CINAHL-Plus databases were systematically searched in May 2014. Supplementary full-text searches of Google Scholar and government website searches were also undertaken.

Results

Key findings from 27 publications with diverse aims and methods were included. Small studies from Canada and NZ suggest higher AF prevalence in Indigenous than other populations. However, this was not reflected in a large sample of US male military veterans. No data were identified on community-based incidence rates of AF in Indigenous populations. Australian and Canadian studies indicate higher first-ever and overall AF hospitalisation rates among Indigenous than other populations, at younger ages and with more comorbidity. Studies in stroke, heart failure and other clinical groups demonstrate AF as a common comorbidity, with AF possibly more prevalent at younger ages in Indigenous people. Indigenous patients have similar early post-hospitalisation adjusted mortality but higher 1-year risk-adjusted mortality than non-Indigenous patients.

Conclusions

No clear epidemiological pattern of AF frequency across the considered Indigenous populations emerges from the limited available evidence. AF should be included in key conditions reported in national surveillance reports, although Indigenous identifiers are required in administrative data from Canada and the US. Sufficiently powered, community-based studies of AF epidemiology in diverse Indigenous populations are needed.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12872-015-0081-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A cohort study: temporal trends in prevalence of antecedents, comorbidities and mortality in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians with first heart failure hospitalization, 2000-2009

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Little is known about trends in risk factors and mortality for Aboriginal Australians with heart failure (HF). This population-based study evaluated trends in prevalence of risk factors, 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality following first HF hospitalization among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Western Australians in the decade 2000-2009.

METHODS

Linked-health data were used to identify patients (20-84 years), with a first-ever HF hospitalization. Trends in demographics, comorbidities, interventions and risk factors were evaluated. Logistic and Cox regression models were fitted to test and compare trends over time in 30-day and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

Of 17,379 HF patients, 1,013 (5.8%) were Aboriginal. Compared with 2000-2002, the prevalence (as history) of myocardial infarction and hypertension increased more markedly in 2006-2009 in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) patients, while diabetes and chronic kidney disease remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal patients. Risk factor trends, including the Charlson comorbidity index, increased over time in younger Aboriginal patients. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality did not change over the decade in either group. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality (in 30-day survivors) was non-significantly higher in Aboriginal patients in 2006-2008 compared with 2000-2002 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.44; 95% CI 0.85-2.41; p-trend = 0.47) whereas it decreased in non-Aboriginal patients (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.78-0.97; p-trend = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2000 and 2009, the prevalence of HF antecedents increased and remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) HF patients. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality did not improve in Aboriginal patients over the period in contrast with non-Aboriginal patients. These findings highlight the need for better prevention and post-HF care in Aboriginal Australians.

Rural-urban differentials in 30-day and 1-year mortality following first-ever heart failure hospitalisation in Western Australia: a population-based study using data linkage

OBJECTIVES

We examined differentials in short-term (30-day mortality) and 1-year mortality (in 30-day survivors) following index (first-ever) hospitalisation for heart failure (HF), between rural and metropolitan patients resident in Western Australia.

DESIGN

A population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Hospitalised patients in Western Australia, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Index patients aged 20-84 years with a first-ever hospitalisation for HF between 2000 and 2009 (with no prior admissions for HF in previous 10 years), identified using the Western Australia linked health data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (in 30-day survivors) following index admission for HF.

RESULTS

Of 17 379 index patients with HF identified, 25.9% (4499) were from rural areas. Rural patients were significantly younger at first HF hospitalisation than metropolitan patients. Aboriginal patients comprised 1.9% of metropolitan and 17.2% of rural patients. Despite some statistical differences, the prevalence of antecedents including ischaemic heart disease, hypertension, diabetes and chronic kidney disease was high (>20%) in both subpopulations. After adjusting for age only, patients from rural areas had a higher risk of 30-day death (OR 1.16 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.33)) and 1-year death in 30-day survivors (HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.23)). These relative risk estimates increased and remained significant after further progressive adjustments for Aboriginality, socioeconomic status, insurance status, emergency presentation, individual comorbidities and revascularisation with OR 1.25 (1.06 to 1.48) for 30-day mortality and HR 1.13 (1.02 to 1.27) for 1-year mortality. The addition of the weighted Charlson index to the 30-day model improved the 'c' statistic (under the receiver operating characteristic curve) from 0.656 (using a variation of administrative claims model) to 0.714.

CONCLUSIONS

Remoteness and variable access to healthcare can cause important disparities in health outcomes. Rural patients with HF in Western Australia have poorer risk-adjusted outcomes compared with metropolitan patients. This finding has important implications for chronic disease management and provision of health services in rural Australia.

Trends from 1996 to 2007 in incidence and mortality outcomes of heart failure after acute myocardial infarction: a population-based study of 20,812 patients with first acute myocardial infarction in Western Australia

Background

Advances in treatment for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are likely to have had a beneficial impact on the incidence of and deaths attributable to heart failure (HF) complicating AMI, although limited data are available to support this contention.

Methods and Results

Western Australian linked administrative health data were used to identify 20 812 consecutive patients, aged 40 to 84 years, without prior HF hospitalized with an index (first) AMI between 1996 and 2007. We assessed the temporal incidence of and adjusted odds ratio/hazard ratio for death associated with HF concurrent with AMI admission and within 1 year after discharge. Concurrent HF comprised 75% of incident HF cases. Between the periods 1996–1998 and 2005–2007, the prevalence of HF after AMI declined from 28.1% to 16.5%, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.50 (95% CI, 0.44 to 0.55). The crude 28‐day case‐fatality rate for patients with concurrent HF declined marginally from 20.5% to 15.9% (P<0.05) compared with those without concurrent HF, in whom the case‐fatality rate declined from 11.0% to 4.8% (P<0.001). Concurrent HF was associated with a multivariate‐adjusted odds ratio of 2.2 for 28‐day mortality and a hazard ratio of 2.2 for 1‐year mortality in 28‐day survivors. Occurrence of HF within 90 days of the index AMI was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.7 for 1‐year mortality in 90‐day survivors.

Conclusions

Despite encouraging declines in the incidence of HF complicating AMI, it remains a common problem with high mortality. Increased attention to these high‐risk patients is needed given the lack of improvement in their long‐term prognosis.