Documenting the development, adoption and pre-ebola implementation of Liberia's integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) strategy

BACKGROUND

In the immediate aftermath of a 14-year civil conflict that disrupted the health system, Liberia adopted the internationally recommended integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) strategy in 2004. Despite this, Liberia was among the three West African countries ravaged by the worst Ebola epidemic in history from 2014 to 2016. This paper describes successes, failures, strengths, and weaknesses in the development, adoption, and implementation of IDSR following the civil war and up until the outbreak of Ebola, from 2004 to early 2014.

METHODS

We reviewed 112 official Government documents and peer-reviewed articles and conducted 29 in-depth interviews with key informants from December 2021 to March 2022 to gain perspectives on IDSR in the post-conflict and pre-Ebola era in Liberia. We assessed the core and supportive functions of IDSR, such as notification of priority diseases, confirmation, reporting, analysis, investigation, response, feedback, monitoring, staff training, supervision, communication, and financial resources. Data were triangulated and presented via emerging themes and in-depth accounts to describe the context of IDSR introduction and implementation, and the barriers surrounding it.

RESULTS

Despite the adoption of the IDSR framework, Liberia failed to secure the resources-human, logistical, and financial-to support effective implementation over the 10-year period. Documents and interview reports demonstrate numerous challenges prior to Ebola: the surveillance system lacked key components of IDSR including laboratory testing capacity, disease reporting, risk communication, community engagement, and staff supervision systems. Insufficient financial support and an abundance of vertical programs further impeded progress. In-depth accounts by donors and key governmental informants demonstrate that although the system had a role in detecting Ebola in Liberia, it could not respond effectively to control the disease.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that post-war, Liberia's health system intended to prioritize epidemic preparedness and response with the adoption of IDSR. However, insufficient investment and systems development meant IDSR was not well implemented, leaving the country vulnerable to the devastating impact of the Ebola epidemic.

Recently Identified Mutations in the Ebola Virus-Makona Genome Do Not Alter Pathogenicity in Animal Models

Ebola virus (EBOV), isolate Makona, the causative agent of the West African EBOV epidemic, has been the subject of numerous investigations to determine the genetic diversity and its potential implication for virus biology, pathogenicity, and transmissibility. Despite various mutations that have emerged over time through multiple human-to-human transmission chains, their biological relevance remains questionable. Recently, mutations in the glycoprotein GP and polymerase L, which emerged and stabilized early during the outbreak, have been associated with improved viral fitness in cell culture. Here, we infected mice and rhesus macaques with EBOV-Makona isolates carrying or lacking those mutations. Surprisingly, all isolates behaved very similarly independent of the genotype, causing severe or lethal disease in mice and macaques, respectively. Likewise, we could not detect any evidence for differences in virus shedding. Thus, no specific biological phenotype could be associated with these EBOV-Makona mutations in two animal models.

Ebola Virus Infection Associated with Transmission from Survivors

Ebola virus (EBOV) can persist in immunologically protected body sites in survivors of Ebola virus disease, creating the potential to initiate new chains of transmission. From the outbreak in West Africa during 2014-2016, we identified 13 possible events of viral persistence-derived transmission of EBOV (VPDTe) and applied predefined criteria to classify transmission events based on the strength of evidence for VPDTe and source and route of transmission. For 8 events, a recipient case was identified; possible source cases were identified for 5 of these 8. For 5 events, a recipient case or chain of transmission could not be confidently determined. Five events met our criteria for sexual transmission (male-to-female). One VPDTe event led to at least 4 generations of cases; transmission was limited after the other events. VPDTe has increased the importance of Ebola survivor services and sustained surveillance and response capacity in regions with previously widespread transmission.

Ebola Response Impact on Public Health Programs, West Africa, 2014-2017

Events such as the 2014–2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus disease highlight the importance of the capacity to detect and respond to public health threats. We describe capacity-building efforts during and after the Ebola epidemic in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea and public health progress that was made as a result of the Ebola response in 4 key areas: emergency response, laboratory capacity, surveillance, and workforce development. We further highlight ways in which capacity-building efforts such as those used in West Africa can be accelerated after a public health crisis to improve preparedness for future events.

Impact of interventions and the incidence of ebola virus disease in Liberia-implications for future epidemics

To better understand the impact of national and global efforts to contain the Ebola virus disease epidemic of 2014–15 in Liberia, we provide a detailed timeline of the major interventions and relate them to the epidemic curve.  In addition to personal experience in the response, we systematically reviewed situation reports from the Liberian government, UN, CDC, WHO, UNICEF, IFRC, USAID, and local and international news reports to create the timeline. We extracted data on the timing and nature of activities and compared them to the timeline of the epidemic curve using the reproduction number—the estimate of the average number of new cases caused by a single case.  Interventions were organized around five major strategies, with the majority of resources directed to the creation of treatment beds. We conclude that no single intervention stopped the epidemic; rather, the interventions likely had reinforcing effects, and some were less likely than others to have made a major impact. We find that the epidemic’s turning coincided with a reorganization of the response in August–September 2014, the emergence of community leadership in control efforts, and changing beliefs and practices in the population. Ebola Treatment Units were important for Ebola treatment, but the vast majority of these treatment centre beds became available after the epidemic curve began declining. Similarly, the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response was launched after the epidemic curve had already turned.  These findings have significant policy implications for future epidemics and suggest that much of the decline in the epidemic curve was driven by critical behaviour changes within local communities, rather than by international efforts that came after the epidemic had turned. Future global interventions in epidemic response should focus on building community capabilities, strengthening local ownership, and dramatically reducing delays in the response.

Bolstering Community Cooperation in Ebola Resurgence Protocols: Combining Field Blood Draw and Point-of-Care Diagnosis

Alison Galvani and colleagues describe a community-based protocol to improve cooperation with Ebola testing as well as contact tracing, quarantining, and treatment.

Ebola and Its Control in Liberia, 2014-2015

Several factors explain the successful response to the outbreak in this country.

The severe epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Liberia started in March 2014. On May 9, 2015, the World Health Organization declared Liberia free of Ebola, 42 days after safe burial of the last known case-patient. However, another 6 cases occurred during June–July; on September 3, 2015, the country was again declared free of Ebola. Liberia had by then reported 10,672 cases of Ebola and 4,808 deaths, 37.0% and 42.6%, respectively, of the 28,103 cases and 11,290 deaths reported from the 3 countries that were heavily affected at that time. Essential components of the response included government leadership and sense of urgency, coordinated international assistance, sound technical work, flexibility guided by epidemiologic data, transparency and effective communication, and efforts by communities themselves. Priorities after the epidemic include surveillance in case of resurgence, restoration of health services, infection control in healthcare settings, and strengthening of basic public health systems.

The Merits of Malaria Diagnostics during an Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak

Malaria is a major public health concern in the countries affected by the Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa. We determined the feasibility of using molecular malaria diagnostics during an Ebola virus disease outbreak and report the incidence of Plasmodium spp. parasitemia in persons with suspected Ebola virus infection.

Prevention of sexual transmission of Ebola in Liberia through a national semen testing and counselling programme for survivors: an analysis of Ebola virus RNA results and behavioural data

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus has been detected in semen of Ebola virus disease survivors after recovery. Liberia's Men's Health Screening Program (MHSP) offers Ebola virus disease survivors semen testing for Ebola virus. We present preliminary results and behavioural outcomes from the first national semen testing programme for Ebola virus.

METHODS

The MHSP operates out of three locations in Liberia: Redemption Hospital in Montserrado County, Phebe Hospital in Bong County, and Tellewoyan Hospital in Lofa County. Men aged 15 years and older who had an Ebola treatment unit discharge certificate are eligible for inclusion. Participants' semen samples were tested for Ebola virus RNA by real-time RT-PCR and participants received counselling on safe sexual practices. Participants graduated after receiving two consecutive negative semen tests. Counsellors collected information on sociodemographics and sexual behaviours using questionnaires administered at enrolment, follow up, and graduation visits. Because the programme is ongoing, data analysis was restricted to data obtained from July 7, 2015, to May 6, 2016.

FINDINGS

As of May 6, 2016, 466 Ebola virus disease survivors had enrolled in the programme; real-time RT-PCR results were available from 429 participants. 38 participants (9%) produced at least one semen specimen that tested positive for Ebola virus RNA. Of these, 24 (63%) provided semen specimens that tested positive 12 months or longer after Ebola virus disease recovery. The longest interval between discharge from an Ebola treatment unit and collection of a positive semen sample was 565 days. Among participants who enrolled and provided specimens more than 90 days since their Ebola treatment unit discharge, men older than 40 years were more likely to have a semen sample test positive than were men aged 40 years or younger (p=0·0004). 84 (74%) of 113 participants who reported not using a condom at enrolment reported using condoms at their first follow-up visit (p<0·0001). 176 (46%) of 385 participants who reported being sexually active at enrolment reported abstinence at their follow-up visit (p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Duration of detection of Ebola virus RNA by real-time RT-PCR varies by individual and might be associated with age. By combining behavioural counselling and laboratory testing, the Men's Health Screening Program helps male Ebola virus disease survivors understand their individual risk and take appropriate measures to protect their sexual partners.

FUNDING

World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Plasmodium Parasitemia Associated With Increased Survival in Ebola Virus-Infected Patients

BACKGROUND

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa has resulted in 28 646 suspected, probable, and confirmed Ebola virus infections. Nevertheless, malaria remains a large public health burden in the region affected by the outbreak. A joint Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Institutes of Health diagnostic laboratory was established in Monrovia, Liberia, in August 2014, to provide laboratory diagnostics for Ebola virus.

METHODS

All blood samples from suspected Ebola virus-infected patients admitted to the Médecins Sans Frontières ELWA3 Ebola treatment unit in Monrovia were tested by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for the presence of Ebola virus and Plasmodium species RNA. Clinical outcome in laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus-infected patients was analyzed as a function of age, sex, Ebola viremia, and Plasmodium species parasitemia.

RESULTS

The case fatality rate of 1182 patients with laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus infections was 52%. The probability of surviving decreased with increasing age and decreased with increasing Ebola viral load. Ebola virus-infected patients were 20% more likely to survive when Plasmodium species parasitemia was detected, even after controlling for Ebola viral load and age; those with the highest levels of parasitemia had a survival rate of 83%. This effect was independent of treatment with antimalarials, as this was provided to all patients. Moreover, treatment with antimalarials did not affect survival in the Ebola virus mouse model.

CONCLUSIONS

Plasmodium species parasitemia is associated with an increase in the probability of surviving Ebola virus infection. More research is needed to understand the molecular mechanism underlying this remarkable phenomenon and translate it into treatment options for Ebola virus infection.

Clinical Chemistry of Patients With Ebola in Monrovia, Liberia

The development of point-of-care clinical chemistry analyzers has enabled the implementation of these ancillary tests in field laboratories in resource-limited outbreak areas. The Eternal Love Winning Africa (ELWA) outbreak diagnostic laboratory, established in Monrovia, Liberia, to provide Ebola virus and Plasmodium spp. diagnostics during the Ebola epidemic, implemented clinical chemistry analyzers in December 2014. Clinical chemistry testing was performed for 68 patients in triage, including 12 patients infected with Ebola virus and 18 infected with Plasmodium spp. The main distinguishing feature in clinical chemistry of Ebola virus-infected patients was the elevation in alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, and γ-glutamyltransferase levels and the decrease in calcium. The implementation of clinical chemistry is probably most helpful when the medical supportive care implemented at the Ebola treatment unit allows for correction of biochemistry derangements and on-site clinical chemistry analyzers can be used to monitor electrolyte balance.

Ebola Laboratory Response at the Eternal Love Winning Africa Campus, Monrovia, Liberia, 2014-2015

West Africa experienced the first epidemic of Ebola virus infection, with by far the greatest number of cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. The unprecedented epidemic triggered an unparalleled response, including the deployment of multiple Ebola treatment units and mobile/field diagnostic laboratories. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deployed a joint laboratory to Monrovia, Liberia, in August 2014 to support the newly founded Ebola treatment unit at the Eternal Love Winning Africa (ELWA) campus. The laboratory operated initially out of a tent structure but quickly moved into a fixed-wall building owing to severe weather conditions, the need for increased security, and the high sample volume. Until May 2015, when the laboratory closed, the site handled close to 6000 clinical specimens for Ebola virus diagnosis and supported the medical staff in case patient management. Laboratory operation and safety, as well as Ebola virus diagnostic assays, are described and discussed; in addition, lessons learned for future deployments are reviewed.

Cluster of Ebola Virus Disease, Bong and Montserrado Counties, Liberia

Lack of trust in government-supported services after the death of a health care worker with symptoms of Ebola resulted in ongoing Ebola transmission in 2 Liberia counties. Ebola transmission was facilitated by attempts to avoid cremation of the deceased patient and delays in identifying and monitoring contacts.

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia

The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence.

Implementation of an Ebola virus disease vaccine clinical trial during the Ebola epidemic in Liberia: Design, procedures, and challenges

The index case of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa is believed to have originated in Guinea. By June 2014, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone were in the midst of a full-blown and complex global health emergency. The devastating effects of this Ebola epidemic in West Africa put the global health response in acute focus for urgent international interventions. Accordingly, in October 2014, a World Health Organization high-level meeting endorsed the concept of a phase 2/3 clinical trial in Liberia to study Ebola vaccines. As a follow-up to the global response, in November 2014, the Government of Liberia and the US Government signed an agreement to form a research partnership to investigate Ebola and to assess intervention strategies for treating, controlling, and preventing the disease in Liberia. This agreement led to the establishment of the Joint Liberia-US Partnership for Research on Ebola Virus in Liberia as the beginning of a long-term collaborative partnership in clinical research between the two countries. In this article, we discuss the methodology and related challenges associated with the implementation of the Ebola vaccines clinical trial, based on a double-blinded randomized controlled trial, in Liberia.

Molecular Evidence of Sexual Transmission of Ebola Virus

A suspected case of sexual transmission from a male survivor of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to his female partner (the patient in this report) occurred in Liberia in March 2015. Ebola virus (EBOV) genomes assembled from blood samples from the patient and a semen sample from the survivor were consistent with direct transmission. The genomes shared three substitutions that were absent from all other Western African EBOV sequences and that were distinct from the last documented transmission chain in Liberia before this case. Combined with epidemiologic data, the genomic analysis provides evidence of sexual transmission of EBOV and evidence of the persistence of infective EBOV in semen for 179 days or more after the onset of EVD. (Funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and others.).

Community Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding Ebola Virus Disease - Five Counties, Liberia, September-October, 2014

As of July 1, 2015, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have reported a total of 27,443 confirmed, probable, and suspected Ebola virus disease (Ebola) cases and 11,220 deaths. Guinea and Sierra Leone have yet to interrupt transmission of Ebola virus. In January, 2016, Liberia successfully achieved Ebola transmission-free status, with no new Ebola cases occurring during a 42-day period; however, new Ebola cases were reported beginning June 29, 2015. Local cultural practices and beliefs have posed challenges to disease control, and therefore, targeted, timely health messages are needed to address practices and misperceptions that might hinder efforts to stop the spread of Ebola. As early as September 2014, Ebola spread to most counties in Liberia. To assess Ebola-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) in the community, CDC epidemiologists who were deployed to the counties (field team), carried out a survey conducted by local trained interviewers. The survey was conducted in September and October 2014 in five counties in Liberia with varying cumulative incidence of Ebola cases. Survey results indicated several findings. First, basic awareness of Ebola was high across all surveyed populations (median correct responses = 16 of 17 questions on knowledge of Ebola transmission; range = 2-17). Second, knowledge and understanding of Ebola symptoms were incomplete (e.g., 61% of respondents said they would know if they had Ebola symptoms). Finally, certain fears about the disease were present: >90% of respondents indicated a fear of Ebola patients, >40% a fear of cured patients, and >50% a fear of treatment units (expressions of this last fear were greater in counties with lower Ebola incidence). This survey, which was conducted at a time when case counts were rapidly increasing in Liberia, indicated limited knowledge of Ebola symptoms and widespread fear of Ebola treatment units despite awareness of communication messages. Continued efforts are needed to address cultural practices and beliefs to interrupt Ebola transmission.

Possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus - Liberia, 2015

On March 20, 2015, 30 days after the most recent confirmed Ebola Virus Disease (Ebola) patient in Liberia was isolated, Ebola was laboratory confirmed in a woman in Monrovia. The investigation identified only one epidemiologic link to Ebola: unprotected vaginal intercourse with a survivor. Published reports from previous outbreaks have demonstrated Ebola survivors can continue to harbor virus in immunologically privileged sites for a period of time after convalescence. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen as long as 82 days after symptom onset and viral RNA has been detected in semen up to 101 days after symptom onset. One instance of possible sexual transmission of Ebola has been reported, although the accompanying evidence was inconclusive. In addition, possible sexual transmission of Marburg virus, a filovirus related to Ebola, was documented in 1968. This report describes the investigation by the Government of Liberia and international response partners of the source of Liberia's latest Ebola case and discusses the public health implications of possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus. Based on information gathered in this investigation, CDC now recommends that contact with semen from male Ebola survivors be avoided until more information regarding the duration and infectiousness of viral shedding in body fluids is known. If male survivors have sex (oral, vaginal, or anal), a condom should be used correctly and consistently every time.

Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola

As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy candidate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest that if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benefit of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts.

Effect of Ebola progression on transmission and control in Liberia

BACKGROUND

The Ebola outbreak that is sweeping across West Africa is the largest, most volatile, and deadliest Ebola epidemic ever recorded. Liberia is the most profoundly affected country, with more than 3500 infections and 2000 deaths recorded in the past 3 months.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the contribution of disease progression and case fatality on transmission and to examine the potential for targeted interventions to eliminate the disease.

DESIGN

Stochastic transmission model that integrates epidemiologic and clinical data on incidence and case fatality, daily viral load among survivors and nonsurvivors evaluated on the basis of the 2000-2001 outbreak in Uganda, and primary data on contacts of patients with Ebola in Liberia.

SETTING

Montserrado County, Liberia, July to September 2014.

MEASUREMENTS

Ebola incidence and case-fatality records from 2014 Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare.

RESULTS

The average number of secondary infections generated throughout the entire infectious period of a single infected case, R, was estimated as 1.73 (95% CI, 1.66 to 1.83). There was substantial stratification between survivors (RSurvivors), for whom the estimate was 0.66 (CI, 0.10 to 1.69), and nonsurvivors (RNonsurvivors), for whom the estimate was 2.36 (CI, 1.72 to 2.80). The nonsurvivors had the highest risk for transmitting the virus later in the course of disease progression. Consequently, the isolation of 75% of infected individuals in critical condition within 4 days from symptom onset has a high chance of eliminating the disease.

LIMITATION

Projections are based on the initial dynamics of the epidemic, which may change as the outbreak and interventions evolve.

CONCLUSION

These results underscore the importance of isolating the most severely ill patients with Ebola within the first few days of their symptomatic phase.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Challenges in responding to the ebola epidemic - four rural counties, Liberia, August-November 2014

The first cases of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa were identified in Guinea on March 22, 2014. On March 30, the first Liberian case was identified in Foya Town, Lofa County, near the Guinean border. Because the majority of early cases occurred in Lofa and Montserrado counties, resources were concentrated in these counties during the first several months of the response, and these counties have seen signs of successful disease control. By October 2014, the epidemic had reached all 15 counties of Liberia. During August 27-September 10, 2014, CDC in collaboration with the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare assessed county Ebola response plans in four rural counties (Grand Cape Mount, Grand Bassa, Rivercess, and Sinoe, to identify county-specific challenges in executing their Ebola response plans, and to provide recommendations and training to enhance control efforts. Assessments were conducted through interviews with county health teams and health care providers and visits to health care facilities. At the time of assessment, county health teams reported lacking adequate training in core Ebola response strategies and reported facing many challenges because of poor transportation and communication networks. Development of communication and transportation network strategies for communities with limited access to roads and limited means of communication in addition to adequate training in Ebola response strategies is critical for successful management of Ebola in remote areas.

Evidence for declining numbers of Ebola cases--Montserrado County, Liberia, June-October 2014

The epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa that began in March 2014 has caused approximately 13,200 suspected, probable, and confirmed cases, including approximately 6,500 in Liberia. About 50% of Liberia's reported cases have been in Montserrado County (population 1.5 million), the most populous county, which contains the capital city, Monrovia. To examine the course of the Ebola epidemic in Montserrado County, data on Ebola treatment unit (ETU) admissions, laboratory testing of patient blood samples, and collection of dead bodies were analyzed. Each of the three data sources indicated consistent declines of 53%-73% following a peak incidence in mid-September. The declines in ETU admissions, percentage of patients with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results positive for Ebola, and dead bodies are the first evidence of reduction in disease after implementation of multiple prevention and response measures. The possible contributions of these interventions to the decline is not yet fully understood or corroborated. A reduction in cases suggests some progress; however, eliminating Ebola transmission is the critical goal and will require greatly intensified efforts for complete, high-quality surveillance to direct and drive the rapid intervention, tracking, and response efforts that remain essential.

Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa

The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.

Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

A substantial scale-up in public health response is needed to control the unprecedented Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in west Africa. Current international commitments seek to expand intervention capacity in three areas: new EVD treatment centres, case ascertainment through contact tracing, and household protective kit allocation. We aimed to assess how these interventions could be applied individually and in combination to avert future EVD cases and deaths.

METHODS

We developed a transmission model of Ebola virus that we fitted to reported EVD cases and deaths in Montserrado County, Liberia. We used this model to assess the effectiveness of expanding EVD treatment centres, increasing case ascertainment, and allocating protective kits for controlling the outbreak in Montserrado. We varied the efficacy of protective kits from 10% to 50%. We compared intervention initiation on Oct 15, 2014, Oct 31, 2014, and Nov 15, 2014. The status quo intervention was defined in terms of case ascertainment and capacity of EVD treatment centres on Sept 23, 2014, and all behaviour and contact patterns relevant to transmission as they were occurring at that time. The primary outcome measure was the expected number of cases averted by Dec 15, 2014.

FINDINGS

We estimated the basic reproductive number for EVD in Montserrado to be 2·49 (95% CI 2·38-2·60). We expect that allocating 4800 additional beds at EVD treatment centres and increasing case ascertainment five-fold in November, 2014, can avert 77 312 (95% CI 68 400-85 870) cases of EVD relative to the status quo by Dec 15, 2014. Complementing these measures with protective kit allocation raises the expectation as high as 97 940 (90 096-105 606) EVD cases. If deployed by Oct 15, 2014, equivalent interventions would have been expected to avert 137 432 (129 736-145 874) cases of EVD. If delayed to Nov 15, 2014, we expect the interventions will at best avert 53 957 (46 963-60 490) EVD cases.

INTERPRETATION

The number of beds at EVD treatment centres needed to effectively control EVD in Montserrado substantially exceeds the 1700 pledged by the USA to west Africa. Accelerated case ascertainment is needed to maximise effectiveness of expanding the capacity of EVD treatment centres. Distributing protective kits can further augment prevention of EVD, but it is not an adequate stand-alone measure for controlling the outbreak. Our findings highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of EVD cases and deaths.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

Cluster of Ebola cases among Liberian and U.S. health care workers in an Ebola treatment unit and adjacent hospital -- Liberia, 2014

The ongoing Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic in West Africa, like previous Ebola outbreaks, has been characterized by amplification in health care settings and increased risk for health care workers (HCWs), who often do not have access to appropriate personal protective equipment. In many locations, Ebola treatment units (ETUs) have been established to optimize care of patients with Ebola while maintaining infection control procedures to prevent transmission of Ebola virus. These ETUs are considered essential to containment of the epidemic. In July 2014, CDC assisted the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Liberia in investigating a cluster of five Ebola cases among HCWs who became ill while working in an ETU, an adjacent general hospital, or both. No common source of exposure or chain of transmission was identified. However, multiple opportunities existed for transmission of Ebola virus to HCWs, including exposure to patients with undetected Ebola in the hospital, inadequate use of personal protective equipment during cleaning and disinfection of environmental surfaces in the hospital, and potential transmission from an ill HCW to another HCW. No evidence was found of a previously unrecognized mode of transmission. Prevention recommendations included reinforcement of existing infection control guidance for both ETUs and general medical care settings, including measures to prevent cross-transmission in co-located facilities.

Assessment of ebola virus disease, health care infrastructure, and preparedness - four counties,Southeastern Liberia, august 2014

Ebola virus disease (Ebola) is a multisystem disease caused by a virus of the genus Ebolavirus. In late March 2014, Ebola cases were described in Liberia, with epicenters in Lofa County and later in Montserrado County. While information about case burden and health care infrastructure was available for the two epicenters, little information was available about remote counties in southeastern Liberia. Over 9 days, August 6-14, 2014, Ebola case burden, health care infrastructure, and emergency preparedness were assessed in collaboration with the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare in four counties in southeastern Liberia: Grand Gedeh, Grand Kru, River Gee, and Maryland. Data were collected by health care facility visits to three of the four county referral hospitals and by unstructured interviews with county and district health officials, hospital administrators, physicians, nurses, physician assistants, and health educators in all four counties. Local burial practices were discussed with county officials, but no direct observation of burial practices was conducted. Basic information about Ebola surveillance and epidemiology, case investigation, contact tracing, case management, and infection control was provided to local officials.