Factors associated with self-perceived treatment-resistance in bipolar disorder

Patients with bipolar disorder often report self-perceived treatment resistance. However, it is not known to what extent it is due to actual treatment resistance. The Juntendo University provides "Bipolar Disorder Treatment Rebuilding Program," in which patients with self-reported treatment resistant bipolar disorder are hospitalized for 2 weeks and undergo detailed examinations. In this study, we report our experience with the initial 43 patients hospitalized during the one and half years after the launch of the program. Among the patients who underwent full assessment, only one was regarded as having genuine treatment-resistant bipolar disorder without comorbidity. In other cases, ten were not diagnosed with bipolar disorder, 3 had organic brain diseases, 12 had comorbid mental disorders and its symptoms were regarded as treatment-resistant bipolar symptoms by the patients, and 18 did not receive adequate treatment because attendant physicians did not adhere to the treatment guidelines or patients did not adhere to the treatment because of lack of insight. The number of participants was not large, and selection bias hampered the generalization of the findings. Insight and adherence were assessed without the use of validated tools. We could not verify recovery after adequate treatment because of the limited hospitalization period. The findings suggest that most patients with self-perceived treatment-resistant bipolar disorder may not have genuine treatment-resistant bipolar disorder. These results shed light on the difficulties of public education of bipolar disorder and importance of providing appropriate services for diagnosis and treatment of bipolar disorder in the community.

Effects of 5-fluorouracil Co-administration on Blood Pressure in Patients Maintained on Antihypertensives: a Retrospective Case Series

This study aimed to investigate the possible drug-drug interactions (DDIs) of 5-FU with antihypertensives metabolised by CYP3A4 and 2C9, using blood pressure (BP) as a pharmacodynamic (PD) parameter. Patients who received 5-FU in combination with antihypertensives metabolised by CYP3A4 or 2C9, specifically, a) amlodipine, nifedipine, or amlodipine + nifedipine, b) candesartan or valsartan, or c) amlodipine + candesartan, amlodipine + losartan, or nifedipine + valsartan, (Group A, n = 20) were identified. Patients who received 5-FU with WF and antihypertensives, specifically, a) amlodipine or b) amlodipine + telmisartan, amlodipine + candesartan, or amlodipine + valsartan, (Group B, n = 5) or 5-FU alone (Group C, n = 25) were also identified and analysed as a comparator and control group, respectively. Regarding the peak BP levels during chemotherapy, there was a significant increase in both SBP (P < 0.0002 and 0.0013) and DBP (P = 0.0243 and 0.0032) in Groups A and C, respectively (Tukey-Kramer test). In contrast, although SBP also increased in Group B during chemotherapy, the change was not statistically significant and there was a decrease in DBP. The significant increase in SBP can be attributed to chemotherapy-induced hypertension by 5-FU or other drugs in the chemotherapeutic regimens. However, when comparing the lowest BP levels during chemotherapy, there was a decrease in SBP and DBP in all groups from the baseline values. The median time to peak and lowest BP was at least 2 weeks and 3 weeks, respectively, for all groups, suggesting that a BP lowering effect was observed following the offset of the initial chemotherapy-induced hypertension. At least 1 month after 5-FU chemotherapy, the SBP and DBP returned to baseline values in all groups. Since Group B also showed a significant increase in PT-INR, possibly demonstrating 5-FU inhibition of CYP activity and, consequently, of WF metabolism, it is likely that 5-FU also inhibited the metabolism of the antihypertensive drugs. The findings suggest possible DDIs between 5-FU and antihypertensives metabolised by CYP3A4.

Relationship between the housing coldness/warmth evaluation by CASBEE Housing Health Checklist and psychological distress based on TMM Community-Based Cohort Study: a cross-sectional analysis

OBJECTIVES

Previous studies have reported the relationship between housing environment and health, although due to cost and effort, it was difficult to conduct housing condition surveys on a large scale. The CASBEE Housing Health Checklist (the Checklist) made it possible to easily evaluate the housing condition from the resident's perspective. This study examined the relationship between housing coldness/warmth evaluation using the Checklist and psychological distress in a large-scale general Japanese population.

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional study.

METHODS

We analysed data from 29,380 people aged ≥20 years who lived in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. As an assessment of housing coldness/warmth, we used the Checklist. We classified participants' total scores on the Checklist related to coldness/warmth into quartiles. The Kessler 6 scale was used as an indicator of psychological distress. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Adjusted OR and P-values for linear trends were calculated using the quartiles of the Checklists' score.

RESULTS

Among participants in Q1 (i.e., poorer subjective house condition), the percentage of people with psychological distress was high. Compared to the highest quartile, Q1 showed poorer evaluation of housing coldness/warmth, and higher OR for psychological distress. The OR (95% CI) of psychological distress for Q3, Q2, and Q1 compared with Q4 were 1.93 (1.74-2.14), 2.82 (2.55-3.12), and 5.78 (5.25-6.35), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Housing coldness/warmth evaluation was significantly related to psychological distress. This finding suggests that maintaining a comfortable thermal environment at home could be important for residents' mental health.

Ovarian reserve may influence the outcome of bone mineral density in patients with long-term use of dienogest

Objective:

Long-term administration of dienogest, which is known to have effect on bone mineral density, is frequently done in patients with endometriosis and adenomyosis, but a few studies focused on the bone mineral density changes after finishing the long-term therapy. This study aimed to reveal the factors that adversely affect lumbar bone mineral density.

Method:

Fifty-seven premenopausal women who visited our hospital were diagnosed as either endometriosis or adenomyosis, and they were treated by dienogest for more than 115 weeks (26.5 months). Based on a previous report, bone mineral density changes less than 2% was categorized as the osteopenic group ( n = 30), and the others were assigned to the unchanged group ( n = 27). Bone mineral density was measured at the lumbar spine using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. A representative ovarian reserve marker, endogenous estradiol levels, and follicle-stimulating hormone levels were measured over time and were compared between the osteopenic and unchanged groups.

Result:

Duration of dienogest intake was 59.5 months (osteopenic group) versus 57.5 months (unchanged group). These patients experienced ovarian surgeries in a similar frequency, but the ovarian reserve in osteopenic group was impaired as suggested by the decline of endogenous estradiol level during intake of dienogest compared to that of unchanged group ( p = 0.0146). Endogenous follicle-stimulating hormone level between osteopenic group and unchanged group did not reach statistically significant difference, although the osteopenic group showed relatively higher level.

Conclusion:

This study might suggest that decreased ovarian reserve as judged by endogenous estradiol level is a factor that negatively affect bone mineral density, and measurement of endogenous estradiol level during intake of dienogest could have a predictive meaning of future decreased bone mineral density level.

mDia1/3-dependent actin polymerization spatiotemporally controls LAT phosphorylation by Zap70 at the immune synapse

The mechanism by which the cytosolic protein Zap70 physically interacts with and phosphorylates its substrate, the transmembrane protein LAT, upon T cell receptor (TCR) stimulation remains largely obscure. In this study, we found that the pharmacological inhibition of formins, a major class of actin nucleators, suppressed LAT phosphorylation by Zap70, despite TCR stimulation-dependent phosphorylation of Zap70 remaining intact. High-resolution imaging and three-dimensional image reconstruction revealed that localization of phosphorylated Zap70 to the immune synapse (IS) and subsequent LAT phosphorylation are critically dependent on formin-mediated actin polymerization. Using knockout mice, we identify mDia1 and mDia3, which are highly expressed in T cells and which localize to the IS upon TCR activation, as the critical formins mediating this process. Our findings therefore describe previously unsuspected roles for mDia1 and mDia3 in the spatiotemporal control of Zap70-dependent LAT phosphorylation at the IS through regulation of filamentous actin, and underscore their physiological importance in TCR signaling.

Age-related and seasonal change in serum osmolarity and water intake in a healthy population

Background and aim

Few studies have clarified the seasonal and age-related change of serum osmolarity and water intake, which is thought to be associated with heat stroke and ischemic stroke. We investigated the association between them in a healthy population.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study using database from Kobe Orthopedic and Biomedical Epidemiologic (KOBE) Study. Among 1138 healthy Japanese participants in the baseline survey, 1010 (women 704 and men 306) participants were eligible for the present study. Daily non-alcohol drink (NAD) intake was estimated according to food frequency questionnaire. Alcohol beverage and water in the meal or soup were excluded from the counting. Serum osmolarity (Osm/L) was calculated by Worthley’s formula: 2 (serum sodium (mEq/L)) + (blood urea nitrogen (mg/dL))/2.8 + (glucose (mg/dL))/18. The seasons the surveys were conducted were categorized into 4 groups, March-May (Spring), June-August (Summer), September-November (Autumn), and December-February (Winter). The association between serum osmolarity and daily NAD intake was analyzed using linear regression models.

Results

The seasonal change was observed in the serum osmolarity and daily NAD intake; serum osmolarity increased in spring and summer and daily NAD intake increased in summer. The serum osmolarity increased by aging in any seasons, while daily water intake didn’t. There was no significant association observed between serum osmolarity and the daily NAD intake, even after adjusting for sex, age, and season.

Conclusions

Serum osmolarity showed seasonal and age-related changes, but the serum osmolarity in subjects who had the daily habit of high NAD intake was not necessarily low.

Key messages

Serum osmolarity increased by aging and in spring and summer. Serum osmolarity was not associated with non-alcohol drink intake.

P1252Diagnostic performance of quantitative flow ratio from coronary angiography versus fractional flow reserve from computed tomography

Background

QFR and FFRCT are recently developed, less-invasive techniques for functional assessment of coronary artery disease.

Objectives

We compared the diagnostic performance between fractional flow reserve derived from computed tomography (FFRCT) and quantitative flow ratio (QFR) derived from coronary angiography, using FFR as the standard reference.

Methods

We measured FFRCT, QFR and FFR in 152 patients (233 vessels) with stable coronary artery disease.

Results

QFR was highly correlated with FFR (r=0.78, p<0.001), while FFRCT was moderately correlated with FFR (r=0.63, p<0.001). Both QFR and FFRCT showed good agreements with FFR, presenting small values of mean difference and root-mean-squared deviation (FFR -QFR: 0.02±0.09 and FFR -FFRCT: 0.03±0.11). The AUC of QFR was significantly greater than that of 3D-QCA-derived %DS (0.93 vs. 0.78; difference: 0.15; 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.20; p<0.001). The AUC of FFRCTwas significantly greater than that of CCTA-derived %DS (0.82 vs. 0.70; difference: 0.12; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.19; p<0.001). The AUC of QFR was significantly greater than that of FFRCT (0.93 vs. 0.82; difference: 0.11; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.16; p<0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive valueof QFR ≤0.80 for predicting FFR ≤0.80 were 90%, 82%, 81%, and 90%, respectively. Those of FFRCT ≤0.80 for predicting FFR ≤0.80 were 82%, 70%, 70%, and 82%, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy of QFR ≤0.80 for predicting FFR ≤0.80 was 85% [95% confidence interval: 81% to 89%], while that of FFRCT≤0.80 for predicting FFR ≤0.80was 76% [95% confidence interval: 70% to 80%].

Figure 1. Comparison of FFR ≤0.80 predictors

Conclusions

Both QFR and FFRCTpossessed the ability to accurately evaluate the functional severity of coronary stenosis.

6108Efficacy of the PCSK9 inhibitor for lipid-rich coronary plaque reduction: a near-infrared spectroscopy analysis

Background

Recently, some studies have highlighted proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors produce incremental low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering effect. However, it is unknown whether the lipid composition of plaque changes is associated with serum LDL-C reduction due to PCSK9 inhibitors administration.

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of PCSK9 inhibitor (PCSK9i) on coronary plaque component in patients with a history of coronary artery disease (CAD) assessed by near-infrared spectroscopy intravascular ultrasound (NIRS-IVUS).

Methods

A total of 67 non-culprit coronary segments were identified in 34 patients. These lesions were analyzed utilizing NIRS-IVUS at baseline and follow-up coronary angiography (CAG). The subjects were divided into two groups according to lipid-lowering treatment; administration of PCSK9i group (PCSK9i: 19 segments, 9 patients) and traditional statin treatment group (Control: 48 segments, 25 patients). The change of lipid-rich plaque distribution between baseline and follow-up NIRS-IVUS was defined as the change of maximal lipid core burden index (LCBI) score for each of the 4-mm longitudinal segments (maxLCBI4mm).

Results

Mean duration from baseline to follow-up CAG was 239.4±52.4 days in the PCSK9i group and 341.0±84.1 days in the Control group (p<0.001). Despite the higher total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in the PCSK9i group at baseline (206.6±40.9 mg/dl vs. 168.5±37.1 mg/dl, 131.5±35.4 mg/dl vs. 100.0±29.5 mg/dl; respectively, p<0.001 for both), the PCSK9i group was significantly lower TC and LDL-C at the follow-up (111.5±23.5 mg/dl vs. 157.4±27.8 mg/dl, 40.8±15.7 mg/dl vs. 86.2±19.6 mg/dl; respectively, p<0.001 for both). Furthermore, the PCSK9i group induced greater regression of maxLCBI4mm than that of Control group (99.6±156.6 vs. 27.9±118.0, p=0.046) (Figure).

Figure 1

Conclusion

Compared with traditional statin therapy, PCSK9i treatment resulted in a greater decrease in lipid component in non-culprit coronary plaques. Therefore, PCSK9i may be useful option in preventing from adverse coronary events for the patients with CAD.

Post-occlusional hyperemia for fractional flow reserve assessment and pull-back curve analysis

Balloon occlusion is a potential method for inducing hyperemia to measure post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) fractional flow reserve (FFR). The objective of this study was to determine the clinical usefulness of post-occlusional hyperemia. FFRs measured using post-occlusional hyperemia caused by 30 (FFR_occl30) and 60 s (FFR_occl60) of balloon occlusion after PCI were compared in 60 lesions from 60 patients. The duration of hyperemia was also measured. There was a strong correlation between FFR_occl30 and FFR_occl60 (r = 0.969, p < 0.01). The duration of hyperemia was significantly longer with FFR_occl60 than with FFR_occl30 (68 ± 23 vs. 37 ± 15 s, p < 0.01). The time required for pullback curve analysis was around 45 s. However, in 7 (12%) cases, the duration of hyperemia with FFR_occl60 was < 45 s, which was not enough for pull-back curve analysis. To predict the duration of hyperemia with FFR_occl60 ≥ 45 s, the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed a cut-off value of 25 s of hyperemia with FFR_occl30. FFR_occl30 is sufficient for diagnostic purposes. FFR_occl60 is suitable for pull-back curve analysis in select cases based on predictions made using the duration of hyperemia with FFR_occl30.

Angiogram based fractional flow reserve in patients with dual/triple vessel coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of angiography derived Fractional Flow Reserve (FFRangio) in multivessel disease (MVD) patients undergoing angiography.

BACKGROUND

FFR is the reference standard for physiologic assessment of coronary stenosis and guidance of revascularization, especially in patients with MVD, yet it remains grossly underutilized. The non-wire based FFRangio performs well in non-MVD patients, but its accuracy in MVD is unknown.

METHODS

A prospective clinical study was conducted at Gifu Heart Centre, Japan. Patients underwent physiologic assessment of all relevant coronary lesions using wire-based FFR (wbFFR) and FFRangio. Primary outcome was diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy) for FFRangio with wbFFR as reference. Other outcomes were the correlation between wbFFR/FFRangio, time required for wbFFR/FFRangio measurements, and the effect of wbFFR/FFRangio on the reclassification of coronary disease severity.

RESULTS

Fifty patients (118 lesions in total) were included. Mean age was 72 ± 9 years, 72% were male, 36% had triple vessel disease and the average SYNTAX score was 13. The mean measurement of wbFFR and FFRangio were 0.83 ± 0.12 and 0.81 ± 0.11, respectively. Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity for FFRangio were 92.3% (95% CI 79.1-98.4%), 92.4% (95% CI 84.3-97.2%) and 92.4% (95% CI 87.4-97.3%), respectively. Pearson's r between wbFFR and FFRangio was 0.83. FFRangio measurement was faster than wbFFR (9.6 ± 3.4 vs. 15.0 ± 8.9 min, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with MVD, FFRangio shows good correlation and excellent diagnostic performance compared to wbFFR, and measuring FFRangio is faster than wbFFR. These results highlight the potential clinical benefits of utilizing FFRangio among patients with MVD.

Effect of a Selective Thrombin Inhibitor MCI-9038 on Fibrinolysis In Vitro and In Vivo

The effect of a selective thrombin inhibitor, (2R, 4R)-4-methyl-1- [N2- [(3-methyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydro-8-quinolinyl)sulfo-nyl]-L-arginyl]-2-piperidinecarboxylic acid (MCI-9038), on the fibrinolysis induced by t-PA and u-PA was studied in vitro and in vivo. MCI-9038 remarkably reduced the lysis time of the plasma clot generated by the addition of calcium chloride to the plasma at the concentration ranging from 0.01 to 0.3 μM. Heparin also reduced the plasma clot lysis time with a lower effect than MCI-9038. The fibrin crosslinkage in the plasma clot was inhibited by MCI-9038 or heparin. MCI-9038 potently inhibited the factor XIIIa generation from factor XIII by thrombin.

The effect on the in vivo thrombolysis was studied on the arterial thrombosis generated by the endothelial cell injury of the rabbit carotid artery by acetic acid. t-PA dissolved the thrombi with the infusion at 0.96 mg/kg over 2 h without a significant activation of a systemic fibrinolysis. u-PA dissolved the thrombi with the infusion at 180,000 and 360,000 IU/kg over 2 h. At a dose of 0.48 mg/kg t-PA or 90,000 IU/kg u-PA, the thrombi were not dissolved, but the combined use of MCI-9038 at 1.2 mg/kg over 2 h effectively dissolved the thrombi. Thus, combination of MCI-9038 with plasminogen activators accelerated thrombolysis of an experimental thrombosis in rabbits.

The Development and Practical Use of Information Systems in the Pharmaceutical Industry

To provide information on the efficacy, safety, and quality of medicine promptly and accurately, we have developed two databases: a literature database with numerical data, and a Drug Information database. By an easy-to-use, company-wide information network system, over 1,000 medical representatives in more than 80 offices throughout Japan can retrieve information. Information derived from the system is displayed on the terminal and the original documents are automatically output through a facsimile.

Effect of interfacial structure on bioinert properties of poly(2-methoxyethyl acrylate)/poly(methyl methacrylate) blend films in water

Poly(2-methoxyethyl acrylate) (PMEA) segregation to the water interface in a blend film disturbed the network structure of water molecules, resulting in effective suppression of platelet adhesion.

Technical note: Use of a simplified equation for estimating glomerular filtration rate in beef cattle

This study was performed to clarify whether a formula (Holstein equation) based on a single blood sample and the isotonic, nonionic, iodine contrast medium iodixanol in Holstein dairy cows can apply to the estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for beef cattle. To verify the application of iodixanol in beef cattle, instead of the standard tracer inulin, both agents were coadministered as a bolus intravenous injection to identical animals at doses of 10 mg of I/kg of BW and 30 mg/kg. Blood was collected 30, 60, 90, and 120 min after the injection, and the GFR was determined by the conventional multisample strategies. The GFR values from iodixanol were well consistent with those from inulin, and no effects of BW, age, or parity on GFR estimates were noted. However, the GFR in cattle weighing less than 300 kg, aged<1 yr old, largely fluctuated, presumably due to the rapid ruminal growth and dynamic changes in renal function at young adult ages. Using clinically healthy cattle and those with renal failure, the GFR values estimated from the Holstein equation were in good agreement with those by the multisample method using iodixanol (r=0.89, P=0.01). The results indicate that the simplified Holstein equation using iodixanol can be used for estimating the GFR of beef cattle in the same dose regimen as Holstein dairy cows, and provides a practical and ethical alternative.

Influence of gastric acid on gastric emptying and gastric distension-induced pain response in rats--effects of famotidine and mosapride

BACKGROUND

Gastroduodenal acidification has been reported to aggravate upper abdominal discomfort and pain that are symptoms suffered by functional dyspepsia (FD) patients. Delayed gastric emptying and hypersensitivity to gastric distension (GD) contribute importantly to the pathophysiology of FD.

METHODS

In the present study, we determined the influence of pentagastrin-stimulated endogenous gastric acid on gastric emptying and GD-induced pain responses using rat model systems. Moreover, we evaluated the effects of famotidine and mosapride on changes in gastric emptying and the GD-induced pain response to gastric acid hypersecretion. Gastric emptying was measured by excretion of glass beads that had been intragastrically administered with a liquid nutrient, and gastric pain response was evaluated by observing whether a GD-induced increase in mean blood pressure occurred.

KEY RESULTS

Pentagastrin (2 mg kg(-1), s.c.) which markedly and continuously stimulated gastric acid secretion, significantly delayed and enhanced respectively, gastric emptying and pain compared with saline-injected groups. Oral famotidine (0.1-3 mg kg(-1)) and mosapride (0.3-3 mg kg(-1)) administration in a dose-dependent manner accelerated the delay of gastric emptying. Furthermore, famotidine (0.3-3 mg kg(-1)) significantly alleviated the aggravation of the GD-induced pain response, but mosapride (10 mg kg(-1)) did not.

CONCLUSIONS & INFERENCES

We established rat models to evaluate the effect of gastric acid hypersecretion on gastric emptying and the GD-induced pain response. In these models, acid hypersecretion delayed gastric emptying and aggravated the pain response. Furthermore, we showed that famotidine ameliorated both delayed gastric emptying and gastric hypersensitivity, whereas mosapride only improved delayed gastric emptying.

Compliance with Good Clinical Practice in oncology registration trials in Japan

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to examine the quality in oncology registration trials for new drug application (NDA) or supplemental new drug application (sNDA) as extensions of the indications for use in Japan based on Good Clinical Practice (GCP) audit findings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We collected audit reports of on-site GCP inspections for registration trials in 383 NDAs or sNDAs that were reviewed by the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency between the fiscal years 2004 and 2009.

RESULTS

Among the 40 audits for oncology drug applications, the frequencies at which one or more deficiencies ascribed to institution, investigator, sponsor, and institutional review board were found to be 15 (37.5%), 13 (32.5%), 21 (52.5%), and 10 (25.0%), respectively. The exclusion of patients from the review objective due to serious violations of GCP in 40 audits for oncology drug applications was observed in 2 (5.0%) cases, whereas that in the remaining 343 audits for other drug applications was observed in 40 (11.7%) cases.

CONCLUSION

The overall compliance of GCP in oncology registration trials was moderately better than that in registration trials for other diseases, although there was no statistically significant difference between them.

EMX2 is epigenetically silenced and suppresses growth in human lung cancer

Lung cancer is a common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Aberrant activation of WNT signaling is implicated in lung carcinogenesis. EMX2, a human homologue of the Drosophila empty spiracles gene is a homeodomain-containing transcription factor. The function of EMX2 has been linked to the WNT signaling pathway during embryonic patterning in mice. However, little is known about the role of EMX2 in human tumorigenesis. In this study, we found that EMX2 was dramatically downregulated in lung cancer tissue samples and this downregulation was associated with methylation of the EMX2 promoter. Restoration of EMX2 expression in lung cancer cells lacking endogenous EMX2 expression suppressed cell proliferation and invasive phenotypes, inhibited canonical WNT signaling, and sensitized lung cancer cells to the treatment of the chemo cytotoxic drug cisplatin. On the other hand, knockdown of EMX2 expression in lung cancer cells expressing endogenous EMX2 promoted cell proliferation, invasive phenotypes and canonical WNT signaling. Taken together, our study suggests that EMX2 may have important roles as a novel suppressor in human lung cancer.

Prediction of progressive disease using tumor markers in metastatic breast cancer patients without target lesions in first-line chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model of progressive disease (PD) in breast cancer patients without measurable disease in first-line chemotherapy.

METHODS

We developed a model to predict PD using carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 15-3 in metastatic breast cancer patients who were enrolled in a phase III trial. The model was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) calculated by the bootstrap method as internal validation. We verified the model for those who received first-line chemotherapy in a clinical setting as external validation. We categorized patients without measurable disease into PD and non-PD groups and compared the time to progression (TTP).

RESULTS

The model consisted of percent changes in CEA and CA 15-3 levels from second to third chemotherapy course and baseline abnormality of them. The AUC after external validation was 0.90. Patients without measurable disease were categorized into PD (N = 10) and non-PD groups (N = 53) by the model. The difference in TTP between the two groups was statistically significant (hazard ratio, 0.437; P = 0.021).

CONCLUSION

The model may be useful to determine PD in metastatic breast cancer patients without measurable disease.