The social and economic impact of the Montreal Longitudinal and Experimental Study

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of early prevention programmes and their viability as a public policy option have increasingly caught the attention of scholars and policymakers. Given the implementation costs of such programmes, it is important to assess whether they achieved anticipated objectives and whether they made efficient use of taxpayer money.

AIM

To discuss the social and economic impact of a 2-year randomised intervention aimed to improve social skills and self-control (i.e., non-cognitive skills) among disruptive boys from low-income neighbourhoods in Montreal.

METHOD

We review findings from published studies documenting the impact of the intervention at different stages of the life course, as well as its cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit.

RESULTS

The intervention improved behavioural indicators throughout adolescence and eventually led to greater high school graduation rates, reduced crime, and better labour market outcomes in adulthood. Importantly, the prevention programme generated considerable returns to taxpayer investments.

CONCLUSION

Findings from the Montreal Longitudinal Experimental Study have been well-received and have contributed to an early prevention 'awakening' in Quebec and elsewhere.

Simple questionnaires outperform behavioral tasks to measure socio-emotional skills in students

Recent empirical research has shown that improving socio-emotional skills such as grit, conscientiousness and self-control leads to higher academic achievement and better life outcomes. However, both theoretical and empirical works have raised concerns about the reliability of the different methods used to measure socio-emotional skills. We compared the reliability and validity of the three leading measurements methods—a student-reported questionnaire, a teacher-reported questionnaire, and a behavioral task—in a sample of 3997 French students. Before analyzing the data, we polled 114 international researchers in cognitive development and education economics; most researchers in both fields predicted that the behavioral task would be the best method. We found instead that the teacher questionnaire was more predictive of students’ behavioral outcomes and of their grade progression, while the behavioral task was the least predictive. This work suggests that researchers may not be using optimal tools to measure socio-emotional skills in children.

Elimination versus mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of effective vaccines

There is increasing evidence that elimination strategies have resulted in better outcomes for public health, the economy, and civil liberties than have mitigation strategies throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. With vaccines that offer high protection against severe forms of COVID-19, and increasing vaccination coverage, policy makers have had to reassess the trade-offs between different options. The desirability and feasibility of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 compared with other strategies should also be re-evaluated from the perspective of different fields, including epidemiology, public health, and economics. To end the pandemic as soon as possible—be it through elimination or reaching an acceptable endemic level—several key topics have emerged centring around coordination, both locally and internationally, and vaccine distribution. Without coordination it is difficult if not impossible to sustain elimination, which is particularly relevant in highly connected regions, such as Europe. Regarding vaccination, concerns remain with respect to equitable distribution, and the risk of the emergence of new variants of concern. Looking forward, it is crucial to overcome the dichotomy between elimination and mitigation, and to jointly define a long-term objective that can accommodate different political and societal realities.

Social Exchange and the Reciprocity Roller Coaster: Evidence from the Life and Death of Virtual Teams

Organizations are riddled with cooperation problems, that is, instances in which workers need to voluntarily exert effort to achieve efficient collective outcomes. To sustain high levels of cooperation, the experimental literature demonstrates the centrality of reciprocal preferences but has also overlooked some of its negative consequences. In this paper, we ran lab-in-the-field experiments in the context of open-source software development teams to provide the first field evidence that highly reciprocating groups are not necessarily more successful in practice. Instead, the relationship between high reciprocity and performance can be more accurately described as U-shaped. Highly reciprocal teams are generally more likely to fail and only outperform other teams conditional on survival. We use the dynamic structure of our data on field contributions to demonstrate the underlying theoretical mechanism. Reciprocal preferences work as a catalyst at the team level: they reinforce the cooperative equilibrium in good times but also make it harder to recover from a negative signal (the project dies). Our results call into question the idea that strong reciprocity can shield organizations from cooperation breakdowns. Instead, cooperation needs to be dynamically managed through relational contracts.

Trust in scientists in times of pandemic: Panel evidence from 12 countries

This article analyzes the specific and critical role of trust in scientists on both the support for and compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We exploit large-scale, longitudinal, and representative surveys for 12 countries over the period from March to December 2020, and we complement the analysis with experimental data. We find that trust in scientists is the key driving force behind individual support for and compliance with NPIs and for favorable attitudes toward vaccination. The effect of trust in government is more ambiguous and tends to diminish support for and compliance with NPIs in countries where the recommendations from scientists and the government were not aligned. Trust in others also has seemingly paradoxical effects: in countries where social trust is high, the support for NPIs is low due to higher expectations that others will voluntary social distance. Our individual-level longitudinal data also allows us to evaluate the effects of within-person changes in trust over the pandemic: we show that trust levels and, in particular, trust in scientists have changed dramatically for individuals and within countries, with important subsequent effects on compliant behavior and support for NPIs. Such findings point out the challenging but critical need to maintain trust in scientists during a lasting pandemic that strains citizens and governments.

Long-term economic and social outcomes of youth suicide attempts

BACKGROUND

Youth who attempt suicide are more at risk for later mental disorders and suicide. However, little is known about their long-term socioeconomic outcomes.

AIMS

We investigated associations between youth suicide attempts and adult economic and social outcomes.

METHOD

Participants were drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten Children (n = 2140) and followed up from ages 6 to 37 years. Lifetime suicide attempt was assessed at 15 and 22 years. Economic (employment earnings, retirement savings, welfare support, bankruptcy) and social (romantic partnership, separation/divorce, number of children) outcomes were assessed through data linkage with government tax return records obtained from age 22 to 37 years (2002-2017). Generalised linear models were used to test the association between youth suicide attempt and outcomes adjusting for background characteristics, parental mental disorders and suicide, and youth concurrent mental disorders.

RESULTS

By age 22, 210 youths (9.8%) had attempted suicide. In fully adjusted models, youth who attempted suicide had lower annual earnings (average last 5 years, US$ -4134, 95% CI -7950 to -317), retirement savings (average last 5 years, US$ -1387, 95% CI -2982 to 209), greater risk of receiving welfare support (risk ratio (RR) = 2.05, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.04) and were less likely to be married/cohabiting (RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.93), compared with those who did not attempt suicide. Over a 40-year working career, the loss of individual earnings attributable to suicide attempts was estimated at US$98 384.

CONCLUSIONS

Youth who attempt suicide are at risk of poor adult socioeconomic outcomes. Findings underscore the importance of psychosocial interventions for young people who have attempted suicide to prevent long-term social and economic disadvantage.

Childhood environmental adversity is not linked to lower levels of cooperative behaviour in economic games

Cooperation is a universal phenomenon, it is present in all human cultures from hunter-gatherers to industrialised societies, and it constitutes a fundamental aspect of social relationships. There is, however, variability in the amount of resources people invest in cooperative activities. Recent findings indicate that this variability may be partly explained as a contextually appropriate response to environmental conditions. Specifically, adverse environments seem to be associated with less cooperation and recent findings suggest that this effect is partly mediated by differences in individuals' life-history strategy. In this paper, we set out to replicate and extend these findings by measuring actual cooperative behaviour in three economic games - a Dictator game, a Trust game and a Public Goods game - on a nationally representative sample of 612 people. Although we found that the cooperation and life-history strategy latent variables were adequately captured by the models, the hypothesised relationship between childhood environmental adversity and adult cooperation and the mediation effect by life-history strategy were not found.

Inattention in boys from low-income backgrounds predicts welfare receipt: a 30-year prospective study

BACKGROUND

Childhood disruptive behaviors are highly prevalent and associated with adverse long-term social and economic outcomes. Trajectories of welfare receipt in early adulthood and the association of childhood behaviors with high welfare receipt trajectories have not been examined.

METHODS

Boys (n = 1000) from low socioeconomic backgrounds were assessed by kindergarten teachers for inattention, hyperactivity, aggression, opposition, and prosociality, and prospectively followed up for 30 years. We used group-base trajectory modeling to estimate trajectories of welfare receipt from age 19-36 years using government tax return records, then examined the association between teacher-rated behaviors and trajectory group membership using mixed effects multinomial regression models.

RESULTS

Three trajectories of welfare receipt were identified: low (70.8%), declining (19.9%), and chronic (9.3%). The mean annual personal employment earnings (US$) for the three groups at age 35/36 years was $36 500 (s.d. = $24 000), $15 600 (s.d. = $16 275), and $1700 (s.d. = $4800), respectively. Relative to the low welfare receipt group, a unit increase in inattention (mean = 2.64; s.d. = 2.32, range = 0-8) at age 6 was associated with an increased risk of being in the chronic group (relative risk ratio; RRR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.03-1.31) and in the declining group (RRR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.03-1.23), after adjustment for child IQ and family adversity, and independent of other behaviors. Family adversity was more strongly associated with trajectories of welfare receipt than any behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

Boys from disadvantaged backgrounds exhibiting high inattention in kindergarten are at elevated risk of chronic welfare receipt during adulthood. Screening and support for inattentive behaviors beginning in kindergarten could have long-term social and economic benefits for individuals and society.

Child Care Attendance and Educational and Economic Outcomes in Adulthood

OBJECTIVES

To test associations between onset of formal child care (in infancy or as a toddler), high school graduation, and employment earnings from ages 18 to 35 years.

METHODS

A 30-year prospective cohort follow-up study, with linkage to government administrative databases (N =3020). Exposure included formal child care, if any, by accredited caregivers in centers or residential settings at ages 6 months and 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 years. A propensity score analysis was conducted to control for social selection bias.

RESULTS

Of 2905 participants with data on child care use, 59.4% of male participants and 78.5% of female participants completed high school by age 22 to 23. Mean income at last follow-up (n = 2860) was $47 000 (Canadian dollars) (SD = 37 700) and $32 500 (SD = 26 800), respectively. Using group-based trajectory modeling, we identified 3 groups: formal child care onset in infancy (∼6 months), formal child care onset as a toddler (after 2.5 years), and never exposed. After propensity score weighting, boys with child care started in infancy had greater odds of graduating than those never exposed (odds ratio [OR] 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-1.63; P < .001). Boys attending child care had reduced odds of low income as young adults (infant onset: OR 0.60 [95% CI: 0.46-0.84; P < .001]; toddler onset: OR 0.63 [95% CI: 0.45-0.82; P < .001]). Girls' graduation rates and incomes revealed no significant association with child care attendance.

CONCLUSIONS

For boys, formal child care was associated with higher high school completion rates and reduced risk of adult poverty. Benefits for boys may therefore extend beyond school readiness, academic performance, and parental workforce participation.

Association Between Childhood Behaviors and Adult Employment Earnings in Canada

Importance

Specifying the association between childhood behaviors and adult earnings can inform the development of screening tools and preventive interventions to enhance social integration and economic participation.

Objective

To test the association between behaviors at age 6 years and employment earnings at age 33 to 35 years.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study obtained data from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten Children, a population-based sample of boys and girls (n = 3020) born in 1980 or 1981 in Quebec, Canada, and followed up from January 1, 1985, to December 31, 2015. The data included behavioral ratings by kindergarten teachers when the children were aged 5 or 6 years and 2013 to 2015 government tax returns of those same participants at age 33 to 35 years. Data were analyzed from September 2017 to December 2018.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mixed-effects linear regression models were used to test the associations between teacher-rated inattention, hyperactivity, aggression, opposition, anxiety, and prosociality at age 6 years and reported annual earnings on income tax returns at age 33 to 35 years. Participant IQ and family adversity were adjusted for in the analysis.

Results

The study included 2850 participants, with a mean (SD) age of 35.9 (0.29) years, of whom 1470 (51.6%) were male and 2740 (96.2%) were white. The mean (SD) personal earnings at follow-up were US $33 300 ($27 500) for men and $19 400 ($15 200) for women. A 1-unit increase in inattention score at age 6 years (males mean [SD], 2.47 [2.42] vs females mean [SD], 1.67 [2.07]) was associated with a decrease in annual earnings of $1271.49 (95% CI, -1908.67 to -634.30) for male participants and $924.25 (95% CI, -1424.44 to -425.46) for female participants. A combined aggression-opposition score (males mean [SD] 2.22 [2.52] vs females mean [SD], 1.05 [1.73]) was associated with a reduction in earnings of $699.83 (95% CI, -1262.49 to -137.17) for males only, albeit with an effect size roughly half that of inattention. A 1-unit increase in prosociality score (males mean [SD], 6.12 [4.30] vs females mean [SD], 7.90 [4.56]) was associated with an increase in earnings of $476.75 (95% CI, 181.53-771.96) for male participants only. A 1-SD reduction in inattention score at age 6 years would theoretically restore $3077 in annual earnings for male participants and $1915 for female participants.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this large population-based sample of kindergarten children, behavioral ratings at 5-6 years were associated with employment earnings 3 decades later, independent of a person's IQ and family background. Inattention and aggression-opposition were associated with lower annual employment earnings, and prosociality with higher earnings but only among male participants; inattention was the only behavioral predictor of income among girls. Early monitoring and support for children demonstrating high inattention and for boys exhibiting high aggression-opposition and low prosocial behaviors could have long-term advantages for those individuals and society.

Association of Behavior in Boys From Low Socioeconomic Neighborhoods With Employment Earnings in Adulthood

Importance

Identifying early childhood behavioral problems associated with economic success/failure is essential for the development of targeted interventions that enhance economic prosperity through improved educational attainment and social integration.

Objective

To test the association between kindergarten teacher-rated assessments of inattention, hyperactivity, opposition, aggression, and prosociality in boys with their employment earnings at age 35 to 36 years as measured by government tax return data.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A 30-year prospective follow-up study analyzing low socioeconomic neighborhoods in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Boys aged 5 to 6 years attending kindergarten in low socioeconomic neighborhoods were recruited. Teacher-rated behavioral assessments were obtained for 1040 boys. Data were collected from April 1984 to December 2015. Analysis began January 2017.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mixed-effects linear regression models were used to examine the association between teacher ratings of inattention, hyperactivity, opposition, aggression, and prosociality at age 6 years and individual earnings obtained from government tax returns at age 35 to 36 years. The IQ of the child and family adversity were adjusted for in the analysis.

Results

Complete data were available for 920 study participants (mean age at follow-up was 36.3 years). Mean (SD) personal earnings at follow-up were $28 865.53 ($24 103.45) (range, $0-$142 267.84). A 1-unit increase in inattention (mean [SD], 2.66 [2.34]; range, 0-8) at age 6 years was associated with decrease in earnings at age 35 to 36 years of $1295.13 (95% CI, -$2051.65 to -$538.62), while a unit increase in prosociality (mean [SD], 8.0 [4.96]; range, 0-20) was associated with an increase in earnings of $406.15 (95% CI, $172.54-$639.77). Hyperactivity, opposition, and aggression were not significantly associated with earnings. Child IQ was associated with higher earnings and family adversity with lower earnings in all models. A 1-SD reduction in inattention at age 6 years was associated with a theoretical increase in annual earnings of $3040.41, a similar magnitude to an equivalent increase in IQ.

Conclusions and Relevance

Teacher ratings of inattention and prosociality in kindergarten boys from low socioeconomic neighborhoods are associated with earnings in adulthood after adjustment for hyperactivity, aggression, and opposition, which were not associated with earnings. Interventions beginning in kindergarten that target boys' inattention and enhance prosociality could positively impact workforce integration and earnings.

Longitudinal child data: What can be gained by linking administrative data and cohort data?

Introduction

Linked administrative data sets are an emerging tool for studying the health and well-being of the population. Previous papers have described methods for linking Canadian data, although few have specifically focused on children, nor have they described linkage between tax outcomes and a cohort of children who are particularly at risk for poor financial outcomes.

Objective and methods

This paper describes a probabilistic linkage performed by Statistics Canada linking the Montreal Longitudinal Experimental Study (MLES) and the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten Children (QLSKC) survey cohorts and administrative tax data from 1992 through 2012.

Results

The number of valid cases in the original cohort file with valid tax records was approximately 84%. Rates of false positives, false negatives, sensitivity, and specificity of the linkage were all acceptable. Using the linked file, the relationship of childhood behavioural indicators and adult income can be investigated in future studies.

Conclusions

Innovative methods for creating longitudinal datasets on children will assist in examining long-term outcomes associated with early childhood risk and protective factors as well as an evidence base for interventions that promote child well-being and positive outcomes.