1
|
Soterroni AC, Império M, Scarabello MC, Seddon N, Obersteiner M, Rochedo PRR, Schaeffer R, Andrade PR, Ramos FM, Azevedo TR, Ometto JPHB, Havlík P, Alencar AAC. Nature-based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net-zero emissions by 2050. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:7085-7101. [PMID: 37907071 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Revised: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 11/02/2023]
Abstract
Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net-zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not-mature-yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil's chances of achieving its net-zero pledge by mid-century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short-term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net-zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large-scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid-century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net-zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net-zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land-use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short- and long-term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Aline C Soterroni
- Nature-based Solutions Initiative, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Agile Initiative, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Mariana Império
- Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Program (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Marluce C Scarabello
- Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | - Nathalie Seddon
- Nature-based Solutions Initiative, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Agile Initiative, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Michael Obersteiner
- Department of Geography, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Pedro R R Rochedo
- Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Program (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- College of Engineering, Management Science and Engineering, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Roberto Schaeffer
- Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Program (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Pedro R Andrade
- National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | - Fernando M Ramos
- National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | | | | | - Petr Havlík
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Ane A C Alencar
- Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia-IPAM, Brasília, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Kath J, Byrareddy VM, Craparo A, Nguyen-Huy T, Mushtaq S, Cao L, Bossolasco L. Not so robust: Robusta coffee production is highly sensitive to temperature. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:3677-3688. [PMID: 32223007 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2019] [Revised: 01/30/2020] [Accepted: 03/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Coffea canephora (robusta coffee) is the most heat-tolerant and 'robust' coffee species and therefore considered more resistant to climate change than other types of coffee production. However, the optimum production range of robusta has never been quantified, with current estimates of its optimal mean annual temperature range (22-30°C) based solely on the climatic conditions of its native range in the Congo basin, Central Africa. Using 10 years of yield observations from 798 farms across South East Asia coupled with high-resolution precipitation and temperature data, we used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to quantify robusta's optimal temperature range for production. Our climate-based models explained yield variation well across the study area with a cross-validated mean R2 = .51. We demonstrate that robusta has an optimal temperature below 20.5°C (or a mean minimum/maximum of ≤16.2/24.1°C), which is markedly lower, by 1.5-9°C than current estimates. In the middle of robusta's currently assumed optimal range (mean annual temperatures over 25.1°C), coffee yields are 50% lower compared to the optimal mean of ≤20.5°C found here. During the growing season, every 1°C increase in mean minimum/maximum temperatures above 16.2/24.1°C corresponded to yield declines of ~14% or 350-460 kg/ha (95% credible interval). Our results suggest that robusta coffee is far more sensitive to temperature than previously thought. Current assessments, based on robusta having an optimal temperature range over 22°C, are likely overestimating its suitable production range and its ability to contribute to coffee production as temperatures increase under climate change. Robusta supplies 40% of the world's coffee, but its production potential could decline considerably as temperatures increase under climate change, jeopardizing a multi-billion dollar coffee industry and the livelihoods of millions of farmers.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jarrod Kath
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
| | - Vivekananda M Byrareddy
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
| | - Alessandro Craparo
- International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Hanoi, Vietnam
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, Colombia
| | - Thong Nguyen-Huy
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
- Vietnam National Space Center, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Shahbaz Mushtaq
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
| | - Loc Cao
- Sustainable Management Services, ECOM Agroindustrial, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Laurent Bossolasco
- Sustainable Management Services, ECOM Agroindustrial, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Gienapp P. Opinion: Is gene mapping in wild populations useful for understanding and predicting adaptation to global change? Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:2737-2749. [PMID: 32108978 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2019] [Revised: 02/12/2020] [Accepted: 02/12/2020] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Changing environmental conditions will inevitably alter selection pressures. Over the long term, populations have to adapt to these altered conditions by evolutionary change to avoid extinction. Quantifying the 'evolutionary potential' of populations to predict whether they will be able to adapt fast enough to forecasted changes is crucial to fully assess the threat for biodiversity posed by climate change. Technological advances in sequencing and high-throughput genotyping have now made genomic studies possible in a wide range of species. Such studies, in theory, allow an unprecedented understanding of the genomics of ecologically relevant traits and thereby a detailed assessment of the population's evolutionary potential. Aimed at a wider audience than only evolutionary geneticists, this paper gives an overview of how gene-mapping studies have contributed to our understanding and prediction of evolutionary adaptations to climate change, identifies potential reasons why their contribution to understanding adaptation to climate change may remain limited, and highlights approaches to study and predict climate change adaptation that may be more promising, at least in the medium term.
Collapse
|