Evaluation of European-based polygenic risk score for breast cancer in Ashkenazi Jewish women in Israel

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk score (PRS), calculated based on genome-wide association studies (GWASs), can improve breast cancer (BC) risk assessment. To date, most BC GWASs have been performed in individuals of European (EUR) ancestry, and the generalisation of EUR-based PRS to other populations is a major challenge. In this study, we examined the performance of EUR-based BC PRS models in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women.

METHODS

We generated PRSs based on data on EUR women from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). We tested the performance of the PRSs in a cohort of 2161 AJ women from Israel (1437 cases and 724 controls) from BCAC (BCAC cohort from Israel (BCAC-IL)). In addition, we tested the performance of these EUR-based BC PRSs, as well as the established 313-SNP EUR BC PRS, in an independent cohort of 181 AJ women from Hadassah Medical Center (HMC) in Israel.

RESULTS

In the BCAC-IL cohort, the highest OR per 1 SD was 1.56 (±0.09). The OR for AJ women at the top 10% of the PRS distribution compared with the middle quintile was 2.10 (±0.24). In the HMC cohort, the OR per 1 SD of the EUR-based PRS that performed best in the BCAC-IL cohort was 1.58±0.27. The OR per 1 SD of the commonly used 313-SNP BC PRS was 1.64 (±0.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Extant EUR GWAS data can be used for generating PRSs that identify AJ women with markedly elevated risk of BC and therefore hold promise for improving BC risk assessment in AJ women.

Immortal Time Bias With Time-Varying Exposures in Environmental Epidemiology: A Case Study in Lung Cancer Survival

Immortal time bias is a well-recognized bias in clinical epidemiology but is rarely discussed in environmental epidemiology. Under the target trial framework, this bias is formally conceptualized as a misalignment between the start of study follow-up (time 0) and treatment assignment. This misalignment can occur when attained duration of follow-up is encoded into treatment assignment using minimums, maximums, or averages. The bias can be exacerbated in the presence of time trends commonly found in environmental exposures. Using lung cancer cases from the California Cancer Registry (2000-2010) linked with estimated concentrations of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5), we replicated previous studies that averaged PM2.5 exposure over follow-up in a time-to-event model. We compared this approach with one that ensures alignment between time 0 and treatment assignment, a discrete-time approach. In the former approach, the estimated overall hazard ratio for a 5-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was 1.38 (95% confidence interval: 1.36, 1.40). Under the discrete-time approach, the estimated pooled odds ratio was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.98, 1.00). We conclude that the strong estimated effect in the former approach was likely driven by immortal time bias, due to misalignment at time 0. Our findings highlight the importance of appropriately conceptualizing a time-varying environmental exposure under the target trial framework to avoid introducing preventable systematic errors.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 4069 children with glioma identifies 9p21.3 risk locus

BACKGROUND

Although recent sequencing studies have revealed that 10% of childhood gliomas are caused by rare germline mutations, the role of common variants is undetermined and no genome-wide significant risk loci for pediatric central nervous system tumors have been identified to date.

METHODS

Meta-analysis of 3 population-based genome-wide association studies comprising 4069 children with glioma and 8778 controls of multiple genetic ancestries. Replication was performed in a separate case-control cohort. Quantitative trait loci analyses and a transcriptome-wide association study were conducted to assess possible links with brain tissue expression across 18 628 genes.

RESULTS

Common variants in CDKN2B-AS1 at 9p21.3 were significantly associated with astrocytoma, the most common subtype of glioma in children (rs573687, P-value of 6.974e-10, OR 1.273, 95% CI 1.179-1.374). The association was driven by low-grade astrocytoma (P-value of 3.815e-9) and exhibited unidirectional effects across all 6 genetic ancestries. For glioma overall, the association approached genome-wide significance (rs3731239, P-value of 5.411e-8), while no significant association was observed for high-grade tumors. Predicted decreased brain tissue expression of CDKN2B was significantly associated with astrocytoma (P-value of 8.090e-8).

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based genome-wide association study meta-analysis, we identify and replicate 9p21.3 (CDKN2B-AS1) as a risk locus for childhood astrocytoma, thereby establishing the first genome-wide significant evidence of common variant predisposition in pediatric neuro-oncology. We furthermore provide a functional basis for the association by showing a possible link to decreased brain tissue CDKN2B expression and substantiate that genetic susceptibility differs between low- and high-grade astrocytoma.

Disparities in cancer incidence by rurality in California

BACKGROUND

Cancer rates in rural areas across the United States have different patterns than in urban areas. This study examines associations between rurality and incidence for the top 5 cancers in California and evaluates whether these associations vary jointly by sex, race, and ethnicity.

METHODS

We used 2015-2019 California Cancer Registry data to compare incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and trends for breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, and skin (melanoma) cancers. We leveraged census tract aggregation zones and 7 levels of percentage rural population (0%, >0% to <10%, 10% to <20%, 20% to <30%, 30% to <40%, 40% to <50%, and 50+%).

RESULTS

Zones with higher proportions of rural population were significantly associated with lower incidence of female breast cancer and prostate cancer, though the trends were not statistically significant overall. Zones with higher proportions of rural population were significantly associated with higher incidence of lung cancer and melanoma. There were no statistically significant trends for colorectal cancer overall. Comparing areas with 50% and over rural population with areas with 0% rural population, the IRR for lung cancer in Hispanic females was higher (IRR = 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17 to 1.74) than in Hispanic males (IRR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.72 to 1.11). Also, in areas with 50% or more rural population, the IRR for melanoma was higher in Hispanic females (IRR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.45) than non-Hispanic White females (IRR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.80 to 0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that rurality is associated with cancer incidence and underscore the importance of jointly examining rural disparities with sex, race, and ethnicity by cancer site.

Age-related differences in breast cancer mortality according to race/ethnicity, insurance, and socioeconomic status

BACKGROUND

We assessed breast cancer mortality in older versus younger women according to race/ethnicity, neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES), and health insurance status.

METHODS

The study included female breast cancer cases 18 years of age and older, diagnosed between 2005 and 2015 in the California Cancer Registry. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to generate hazard ratios (HR) of breast cancer specific deaths and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for older (60+ years) versus younger (< 60 years) patients separately by race/ethnicity, nSES, and health insurance status.

RESULTS

Risk of dying from breast cancer was higher in older than younger patients after multivariable adjustment, which varied in magnitude by race/ethnicity (P-interaction< 0.0001). Comparing older to younger patients, higher mortality differences were shown for non-Hispanic White (HR = 1.43; 95% CI, 1.36-1.51) and Hispanic women (HR = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.26-1.50) and lower differences for non-Hispanic Blacks (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 1.04-1.31) and Asians/Pacific Islanders (HR = 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.31). HRs comparing older to younger patients varied by insurance status (P-interaction< 0.0001), with largest mortality differences observed for privately insured women (HR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.43-1.59) and lowest in Medicaid/military/other public insurance (HR = 1.18; 95% CI, 1.10-1.26). No age differences were shown for uninsured women. HRs comparing older to younger patients were similar across nSES strata.

CONCLUSION

Our results provide evidence for the continued disparity in Black-White breast cancer mortality, which is magnified in younger women. Moreover, insurance status continues to play a role in breast cancer mortality, with uninsured women having the highest risk for breast cancer death, regardless of age.