Prediction of gold stage in patients hospitalized with COPD exacerbations using blood neutrophils and demographic parameters as risk factors

Background

Patients hospitalized with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are unable to complete the pulmonary function test reliably due to their poor health conditions. Creating an easy-to-use instrument to identify the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage will offer valuable information that assists clinicians to choose appropriate clinical care to decrease the mortality in these patients. The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model to identify the GOLD stage in the hospitalized exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD) patients.

Methods

This prospective study involved 155 patients hospitalized for ECOPD. All participants completed lung function tests and the collection of blood neutrophils and demographic parameters. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted based on the data of 155 patients, and was used to analyze the disease severity predictive capability of blood neutrophils and demographic parameters. A support vector regression (SVR) based GOLD stage prediction model was built using the training data set (75%), whose accuracy was then verified by the testing data set (25%).

Results

The percentage of blood neutrophils (denoted as NEU%) combined with the demographic parameters was associated with a higher risk to severe episode of ECOPD. The area under the ROC curve was 0.84. The SVR model managed to predict the GOLD stage with an accuracy of 90.24%. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the forced expiratory volume in one second as the percentage of the predicted value (denoted as FEV₁%pred) was 8.84%.

Conclusions

The NEU% and demographic parameters are associated with the pulmonary function of the hospitalized ECOPD patients. The established prediction model could assist clinicians in diagnosing GOLD stage and planning appropriate clinical care.

Incidence of human dog-mediated zoonoses and demographic characteristics/vaccination coverage of the domestic dog population in Algeria

Control of zoonotic diseases requires a One Health integrated action from both human and animal health sectors. The aims of the present study were to estimate the incidence of dog-mediated zoonoses in humans and to describe demographic characteristics and vaccination coverage of the domestic dog population in Algeria. The results show that rabies, leishmaniosis and echinococcosis are the major zoonoses in Algeria, with an average of 20.6 (deaths), 8,276 and 455 human cases per year, respectively. A door-to-door survey was conducted among 652 households with at least one dog, of which 334 (51.33%) were located in urban areas and 318 (48.77%) in rural areas. The mean number of dogs per household in rural areas (2.02) is higher than that in urban areas (1.41). Furthermore, a high percentage of semi-confined and free-roaming and a low proportion of vaccinated dogs were recorded in rural areas. Vaccination coverage for rabies, canine distemper virus, Rubarth hepatitis, leptospirosis and parvovirus was lowest in rural dog populations. The analysis of risk factors established that semi-confined or free-roaming dogs, non-pedigree breeds, hunting dogs, herding dogs and the presence of more than three dogs per household are risk factors for dogs not being vaccinated.

Sublethal and hormesis effects of beta-cypermethrin on the biology, life table parameters and reproductive potential of soybean aphid Aphis glycines

Beta-cypermethrin has long been recommended as an effective pesticide to control the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, a serious pest in soybean crops. Besides acute toxicity, it leads to changes in life history traits of A. glycines, notably its reproductive potential. This study has assessed the effects of five sublethal concentrations (0.625, 1.25, 2.5, 5 and 10 µg/L) of beta-cypermethrin on different life history traits of A. glycines. Exposure to these concentrations caused shorter oviposition period and reduced adult longevity. The strongest stimulatory effect on aphid reproduction was achieved when exposed to a higher sublethal beta-cypermethrin concentration (5 µg/L). Net reproduction rate (R 0 ), intrinsic rate of increase (r m ) and finite rate of increase (λ) were significantly higher than that of the control, increasing by 20.58, 4.89 and 2.06%, respectively. We found no significant difference in mean generation time (T) between the treatment of 5 µg/L beta-cypermethrin and the control. However, when the concentration increased to 10 µg/L, the reproduction behavior was restrained and the mean generation time (T) was shortened, resulting in significant decrease in R 0 and T by 16.58 and 3.83%, respectively. In conclusion, a sublethal concentration (5 µg/L) of beta-cypermethrin triggered the strongest hormesis on A.glycines, thus providing valuable knowledge on the sublethal effects of this insecticide on soybean aphids. Hormesis may be one of the mechanisms underlying pest resurgences, and better knowledge would enable a more effective use of insecticides in Integrated Pest Management programs.