Shock or opportunity? Unveiling the effect of low-carbon transition on employment

The stabilization of growth and preservation of employment are the primary objectives of the current new economic normal. Investigating whether the low-carbon transition can be an opportunity or a shock for employment expansion in green development requires thorough examination. This study utilizes multi-temporal difference-in-difference (DID) models, analyzing comprehensive panel data from China (2007-2019) to assess the impact of the Low-carbon City Pilot (LCCP) policy on employment at meso-regional and micro-firm levels. Empirical findings robustly reveal that LCCP significantly boosts employment, with average treatment effects of approximately 0.548% and 5.892% at regional and firm scales, respectively. Positive impacts vary based on ownership, location, industry type, and energy consumption within enterprises. Notably, state-owned enterprises, those in the eastern region, engaged in secondary industries, and with high energy consumption experience pronounced positive effects. Mechanism analysis further reveals that LCCP boosts employment via promoting government environmental subsidies and expanding enterprise investment scale to create more jobs. These findings provide policy recommendations for further promoting low-carbon transition and expanding employment to achieve the win-win goal of sustainable development.

LEAP model-based analysis to low-carbon transformation path in the power sector: a case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

As a major carbon emitter, the power sector plays a crucial role in realizing the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This study constructed a low-carbon power system based on the LEAP model (LEAP-GBA) with 2020 as a statistic base aiming of exploring the low-carbon transformation pathway of the power sector in the Guangdong-Hong Kong, and Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Five scenarios are set up to simulate the demand, power generation structure, carbon emissions, and power generation costs in the power sector under different scenarios. The results indicate that total electricity demand will peak after 2050, with 80% of it coming from industry, buildings and residential use. To achieve net-zero emissions from the power sector in the GBA, a future power generation mix dominated by nuclear and renewable energy generation and supplemented by fossil energy generation equipped with CCUS technologies. BECCS technology and nuclear power are the key to realize zero carbon emissions from the power sector in the GBA, so it should be the first to promote BECCS technology testing and commercial application, improve the deployment of nuclear power sites, and push forward the construction of nuclear power and technology improvement in the next 40 years.

The impact of regional policy implementation on the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development

The contradiction between economic growth demands and the achievement of the "dual-carbon" goals at the regional level is a pressing issue in China. As a significant economic and cultural center in the western region of China, the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration has experienced rapid development and urbanization, making it one of the key areas for national development. Therefore, greater attention should be given to carbon emission reduction in this region. This study focuses on the dataset from 2010 to 2019 in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, utilizing an input-output table to construct a carbon dioxide emission inventory. The research investigates the impact of regional classification on carbon emission levels within the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration. Furthermore, the Tapio decoupling analysis method is employed to assess the decoupling coefficient between regional economic development and carbon emissions. Additionally, the Theil index inequality analysis method is utilized to measure the disparities in per capita carbon emissions among cities within the region. Research findings indicate the following: 1) The regional classification of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration is an effective policy for reducing regional carbon emissions and promoting carbon emissions reduction. 2) There exist variations in energy and industrial structures among cities within the urban agglomeration, necessitating tailored measures for low-carbon transition based on the specific circumstances of each city. 3) The regional classification of the urban agglomeration significantly influences the degree of decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions, with a trend towards stronger decoupling. The study suggests that cities within the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration should adopt measures aligned with their natural conditions and economic characteristics to achieve a low-carbon transition. Leveraging the regional cooperation capacity of the urban agglomeration is crucial to decouple economic development from carbon emissions, thereby promoting sustainable economic growth and environmental protection in a mutually beneficial manner.

How does transition finance influence green innovation of high-polluting and high-energy-consuming enterprises? Evidence from China

Under the impact of "double-carbon" target, transition finance has an important impact on green innovation of Chinese double-high enterprises. Using a sample of 4270 high-polluting and high-energy-consumption listed enterprises (referred to as double-high enterprises) in China from 2012 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the impact of transition finance on the green innovation of China's double-high enterprises by using a fixed-effects model. The study finds that transition finance can have a facilitating effect on green innovation in double-high enterprises. The intermediary mechanism test shows that transition finance can promote green innovation of double-high enterprises through alleviating financing constraints, increasing the level of green management, and enhancing the policy orientation effect. The heterogeneity test finds that transition finance promotes green innovation more significantly for the double-high enterprises that are state-owned, large-scale, and located in regions with high levels of intellectual property protection. Further research finds that the role of transition finance in promoting green innovation in double-high enterprises helps to promote the achievement of green development of double-high enterprises.

Evaluating the synergistic effect of digitalization and industrialization on total factor carbon emission performance

Combating climate change and reducing carbon dioxide emissions are serious challenges shared by countries around the world. In the current era, digitalization has a significant impact on CO2 emissions. However, prior studies have not assessed the synergy between digitalization and industrialization on carbon emission performance. The principal component analysis and non-radial directional distance function (NDDF) are used to measure the digitalization and total factor carbon emission performance of Chinese 245 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2019. This study establishes a fixed effects model to study the panel data. The findings are as follows: (1) Digitalization can significantly promote Chinese cities' CO2 emission reduction. This result still holds after several robustness checks. (2) The heterogeneity results indicate that digitalization mainly improves central cities' carbon emission performance. Meanwhile, the impact of digitalization is more obvious after 2011. (3) Digitalization improves urban carbon emission performance through energy efficiency, industrial transformation, and technological innovation. (4) It is worth noting that digitalization synergizes with industrialization to improve carbon emission performance in Chinese cities. This study provides empirical evidence and some constructive policy recommendations for the government to push the collaborative development of the digitalization and low-carbon economy.

Regulation and decarbonization: how can environmental regulations more effectively facilitate industrial low-carbon transitions?

Environmental policies play an important role in the process of industrial low-carbon transition in developing countries. From the perspective of the impact condition and mechanisms, we discuss how to improve their effectiveness to give full play to the positive impact of environmental regulations. Based on provincial industrial data from 2003 to 2019 in China, this study uses a threshold regression model and endogenous regression to reveal the impact condition and mechanisms of environmental regulations on industrial low-carbon transition. The results suggest that (1) technological innovation capability and cost-bearing capacity are the key conditions for environmental regulations to exert a positive impact on low-carbon transition. (2) Environmental regulations have a positive impact on low-carbon transition through technological innovation (technology), resource reallocation (capital), and skill premium (labor). Research on the implementation conditions and mechanisms of environmental regulations will help policy-makers formulate appropriate and reasonable environmental regulations and eliminate the obstacles between environmental regulations and low-carbon transition, while an assessment of China's environmental policies will provide a reference for environmental governance in other developing countries.

Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change summit negotiations from the climate governance perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions to the world since 2020, with over 647 million confirmed cases and 6.7 million reported deaths as of January 2023. Despite its far-reaching impact, the effects of COVID-19 on the progress of global climate change negotiations have yet to be thoroughly evaluated. This discussion paper conducts an examination of COVID-19's impact on climate change actions at global, national, and local levels through a comprehensive review of existing literature. This analysis reveals that the pandemic has resulted in delays in implementing climate policies and altered priorities from climate action to the pandemic response. Despite these setbacks, the pandemic has also presented opportunities for accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. The interplay between these outcomes and the different levels of governance will play a crucial role in determining the success or failure of future climate change negotiations.

Just Transition on air quality governance: a case study of heavy-duty diesel truck protests in Taiwan

Just Transitions are gaining attention in environmental research, and most studies have focused on climate change; however, the insights from this work may be usefully applied to the rarely discussed area in just transition studies. This article uses traditional dimensions of environmental and social justice, such as distributive, procedural, recognition, and restorative justice, to understand why heavy-duty diesel truck drivers fought back against stricter air pollution regulations while demanding destigmatization. The protest resulted in policy failure, and Taiwan's transition to cleaner, newer diesel trucks were halted. This study finds that the key social contextual factor in Taiwan's transportation industry was the labor relations of license-leasing. The drivers' protest began with a lack of procedural justice, and communication occurred only after the law was passed. There was insufficient regard for procedural justice, and although the drivers were concerned, the new rule would significantly impact their right to work and life. Furthermore, the drivers felt disrespected and even carried the stigma of creating environmental pollution. The article assumes that the results should be different if the governance mechanism can handle the key factor in a social context and make appropriate arrangements for the four dimensions of Just Transition. This argument may be relevant for other countries looking to transition from older diesel vehicles to cleaner vehicles through Just Transition.

Unveiling characteristics and determinants of China's wind power geographies towards low-carbon transition

The temporal and spatial patterns of wind power installation and the evaluation of carbon emission reduction potentials are of great significance to promoting China's wind power development planning and dual carbon targets achievement. This study analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics, identifies main driving factors, and measures carbon emission reduction potentials of China's wind power installation by province based on spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric model. Overall, China's wind power installed capacity increased rapidly from 346 MW in 2000 to 279,550 MW in 2020, basically showing a significant positive spatial correlation during 2000 and 2020. Regarding driving factors of wind power installation, the technological factors and environmental factors were the main positive factors for wind power installation, and the economic factors and resource endowments showed positive spatial spillover effects. Regarding carbon emission reduction potentials, the carbon emission reduction potentials of China's wind power installation increased by year, among which Northwest China gradually accelerated Northeast China after 2015. Based on China's wind power evolution characteristics and carbon emission reduction potentials, this study attempts to provide quantitative supports and policy implications to promote sustainable development of wind power industry and the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality within China.

Green credit, environmentally induced R&D and low carbon transition: Evidence from China

This paper explores the impact of green credit (Cre) on low-carbon transition (Lct) and its influence mechanisms. Theoretically, Cre promotes environmentally induced R&D (ER&D), which in turn affects Lct. Empirically, using a panel data of 30 Chinese provinces and cities from 2004 to 2019, we measure the provincial ER&D and carbon emission performance (Cep), based on which we conduct an econometric analysis. It is observed that Cre promotes Lct (that is, Cre reduces carbon emission and improves Cep). This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments. And the impact of Cre on Lct is asymmetrical due to regional differences in physical and geoclimatic characteristics, income levels, and financing constraint levels. Second, ER&D is an important mechanism of action for Cre enhancing Lct. Further analysis reveals that ER&D can affect Lct through energy transition effects and green innovation effects. Finally, the positive effect of Cre on ER&D is significant in high level of Lct regions, but insignificant in low level of Lct regions. Based on this, specific policy recommendations from the perspective of developing Cre and establishing an incentive mechanism for ER&D are put forward.

Synergy evaluation of China's economy-energy low-carbon transition and its improvement strategy for structure optimization

Low-carbon economic development and energy transition are interactively linked. The synergetic development of the two subsystems is important to achieve the "double carbon" goal of sustainable development. First, this study proposes a model to measure the current synergy level of China's economy-energy low-carbon transition. Second, an optimization model is developed to improve industry and energy synergy levels through structure optimization. The synergy degree (SD) level of China's economy-energy low-carbon transition increased from 0 to 0.98 between 2005 and 2017. Furthermore, 69.2% of the periods are in a state of asynergy (SD < 0.6). By implementing the industry and energy structure optimization (OPT) scenario, the synergy level by 2035 can be 27.8% higher than the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Moreover, light synergy (0.6 ≤ SD < 0.8) could be achieved by 2025, and high-quality synergy (0.9 ≤ SD ≤ 1) by 2033 in the OPT scenario. Conversely, the synergy level can only achieve light synergy until 2035 in the BAU scenario. Compared to energy structure optimization, the low carbonization of the economic structure plays a more significant role in improving the synergy level of the transaction. These findings can provide support for China's policy-making regarding economic and energy transition.

Analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities in the Yellow River basin under carbon neutrality target

In 2020, China promised to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, and these targets are famous as "Goal 3060" in China. Chinese resource-based cities are concerned about the realization of Goal 3060 to practice national action against environmental change. In this paper, this study evaluates the impact of population, economic growth, energy intensity, industrial structure, fixed asset investment, and urbanization level on carbon emissions in Chinese cities. To do so, the paper divides 36 Chinese cities into four types (growing city, mature city, recessionary city, and regenerative city) from 2003 to 2017 by factor investigation according to the diverse development stages. The extended STIRPAT model is used to assess the impact of various factors on CO₂ emissions in the Yellow River basin and diverse city levels. The panel regression analysis was conducted for the basin as a whole and cities at different development stages through a fixed-effects model and a linear regression model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. The results show that (1) the total carbon emissions in the Yellow River basin continued to climb during the study period. However, the growth rate slowed down significantly after 2012. In addition, there are differences in the total carbon emissions and growth rate of different cities. (2) Population, real GDP, energy intensity, industrial structure, and fixed asset investment all have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions in the overall basin except the urbanization level which has a significant negative influence on carbon emissions. (3) There is heterogeneity in the influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities at various development stages. Based on these results, corresponding policies are proposed for different types of cities to help resource-based cities achieve the 3060 dual carbon goal.

Global low-carbon energy transition in the post-COVID-19 era

The COVID-19 pandemic has created significant challenges for energy transition. Concerns about the overwhelming emphasis on economic recovery at the cost of energy transition progress have been raised worldwide. More voices are calling for "green" recovery scheme, which recovers the economy while not compromising on the environment. However, limited academic attention has been paid to comprehensively investigating the implications of COVID-19 for global energy transition. This study thus provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics between energy transition and COVID-19 around the world and proposes a low-carbon energy transition roadmap in the post-pandemic era. Using energy data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), we first summarized and reviewed the progress of energy transition prior to COVID-19. Building on prior progress, we identified the challenges for energy transition during the pandemic from the perspectives of government support, fossil fuel divestment, renewable energy production capacity, global supply chain, and energy poverty. However, the pandemic also generates opportunities for global energy transition. We hence also identified potential opportunities for energy transition presented by the pandemic from the perspectives of price competitiveness, policy implementation efficiency, and renewable energy strengths. We further provided an in-depth discussion on the impact of current worldwide economic recovery stimulus on energy transition. Based on the identified challenges and opportunities, we proposed the post-pandemic energy transition roadmap in terms of broadening green financing instruments, strengthening international cooperation, and enhancing green recovery plans. Our study sheds light on a global low-carbon energy transition framework and has practical implications for green recovery schemes in post-pandemic times.

Comprehensive analysis of carbon emissions, economic growth, and employment from the perspective of industrial restructuring: a case study of China

Industrial restructuring is a significant measure for low-carbon transition. In principle, carbon emissions can be effectively reduced by limiting the output of high-emission sectors; however, the socio-economic effects of the sectors should also be considered. Moreover, owing to the limitations of the method or data, the interactions between households and production sectors have been neglected in the study of industrial restructuring, resulting in an incomplete and potentially biased understanding of the role of households. To fill this gap, we applied a semi-closed input-output model to identify key sectors by economic and emission linkages and measure the employment impacts (direct, indirect, and induced) of reduced carbon emissions. The empirical results for China in 2010-2018 showed that relatively small changes in key emission sectors would significantly affect the economic growth, and reduced carbon emissions reduction would generally lead to high job losses. Promoting labor-intensive sectors, particularly the service sector, is conducive to achieving a "multi-win" situation for economic development, carbon emission reductions, and stable employment. Furthermore, our results highlight the significance of households: expanding consumption and increasing household income can bring multiple benefits, such as economic growth, job creation, and low carbon emissions. These findings can provide useful information for identifying the optimized path of restructuring and helping achieve the sustainable development of the environment, economy, and society.

Energy system transformations and carbon emission mitigation for China to achieve global 2 °C climate target

The Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 2 °C compared to the pre-industrial level. To achieve this, it is essential to accelerate the low-carbon transition of energy system. China is the largest carbon emitter and plays a decisive role in mitigating global climate change. The transition pathways for China to contribute to meeting the global 2 °C target, however, have not been extensively explored. Here we develop a bottom-up national energy technology model (C³IAM/NET), a linear optimization model, to reveal the energy consumption, carbon emissions and technology pathway at the national and sectoral levels in line with the 2 °C climate target. Results show that China's carbon emissions need to peak at the year 2023 and reduce to 3.56 GtCO₂ by mid-century. During the 2020-2050 planning horizon, the remaining carbon budget is estimated to be controlled within 234 GtCO₂, with a cumulative emission reduction of 165.3 GtCO₂, of which the power sector bearing the largest share of responsibility, followed by the industry, transportation and building sectors. We project that China's primary energy consumption needs to peak before 2040 and the proportion of non-fossil energy in energy structure needs to reach 76% by 2050, and about 88.4% of electricity production comes from renewables and nuclear energy.

The costs and benefits of environmental sustainability

The natural science in GEO-6 makes clear that a range and variety of unwelcome outcomes for humanity, with potentially very significant impacts for human health, become increasingly likely if societies maintain their current development paths. This paper assesses what is known about the likely economic implications of either current trends or the transformation to a low-carbon and resource-efficient economy in the years to 2050 for which GEO-6 calls. A key conclusion is that no conventional cost-benefit analysis for either scenario is possible. This is because the final cost of meeting various decarbonisation and resource-management pathways depends on decisions made today in changing behaviour and generating innovation. The inadequacies of conventional modelling approaches generally lead to understating the risks from unmitigated climate change and overstating the costs of a low-carbon transition, by missing out the cumulative gains from path-dependent innovation. This leads to a flawed conclusion as to how to respond to the climate emergency, namely that significant reductions in emissions are prohibitively expensive and, therefore, to be avoided until new, cost-effective technologies are developed. We argue that this is inconsistent with the evidence and counterproductive in serving to delay decarbonisation efforts, thereby increasing its costs. Understanding the processes which drive innovation, change social norms and avoid locking in to carbon- and resource-intensive technologies, infrastructure and behaviours, will help decision makers as they ponder how to respond to the increasingly stark warnings of natural scientists about the deteriorating condition of the natural environment.

Co-current analysis among electricity-water-carbon for the power sector in China

China's power sector consumes large amounts of water for its cooling every year, which has increased water stress in many regions and caused the vulnerability in electricity generation. Current plans for power sector mainly focus on the clean and low-carbon development, while it is unclear how to reconcile CO₂-reduction target with water-saving target. In this paper, an optimization model named NET-Power (National Energy Technology-Power) is developed to simulate the deployment of power generation technologies, and to further answer whether there is a conflict or not between water-saving target and CO₂-reduction target in the power sector. The result shows that peaking carbon emissions before 2030 in the power sector may increase the water consumption by 34.85Gt. In addition, to further meeting the water constraint on the basis of peaking carbon emissions would lead to a higher carbon intensity of thermal power. These findings indicate that low-carbon transition will cause significant water-carbon contradiction, which mainly lies in nuclear power technology and dry-cooling technology. Finally, the optimal technology layout path that can meet the dual constraints of water and carbon for the power sector in China is proposed.

Who is a good neighbor? Analysis of frontrunner cities with comparative advantages in low-carbon development

A well-developed economy and low-carbon emission intensity are important characteristics of low-carbon cities; they also represent important tasks for achieving global climate change mitigation goals. It is seldom discussed, however, how we should identify frontrunner cities from which low-carbon development experiences can be gleaned and then implemented in neighboring cities. This study, therefore, proposed a simple indicator-the "good neighbor index"-to identify frontrunner cities in low-carbon transformation based on economic and emission performance. Based on this indicator, we identified "good neighbors" in static and dynamic views for China. The results showed that the static good neighbors in 2015 were mostly large cities with higher incomes and better industrial structures whereas the dynamic neighbors achieved better economic growth and emission reductions from 2005 to 2015, though their economic and emissions statuses were generally worse. The good neighbor list is not consistent with the list of national low-carbon pilot cities, which has largely overlooked the experiences of some fast-growing cities. These results have policy implications for the Chinese government in terms of promoting the low-carbon transformation of cities. The study can also provide a reference for other countries in addressing climate change at the city level.

Oil and gas companies' low-carbon emission transition to integrated energy companies

In recent years, with the emphasis on environmental protection, the global energy landscape is changing: the proportion of traditional energy is gradually decreasing, and renewable energy are developing rapidly. In this context, the oil and gas company is also in the early stages of the low-carbon emission energy transition. However, this concept is relatively new for many oil and gas companies. Thus, this paper aims to introduce the low-carbon emission transition practices of several large oil and gas companies so that more companies can learn from the experience. This paper summarizes the transition targets, investment, and actions of some large oil and gas companies employing enterprise surveys, and analyses the low-carbon transition paths, opportunities, and challenges. The analysis shows that (1) vigorous development of natural gas business is the first step for oil and gas companies to transition to low-carbon emission stage; (2) increasing investment in renewable energy is a long-term action of oil and gas companies and the key to transforming oil and gas companies into integrated energy companies; (3) oil and gas companies should have rich experience in developing geothermal energy. In addition, the paper also proposes policy recommendations for the low-carbon transition of oil and gas companies.

Opportunities for low-carbon socioeconomic transition during the revitalization of Northeast China: Insights from Heilongjiang province

The Strategies of Reviving the Old Industrial Bases provide opportunities for low-carbon transition in Northeast China, which is one of the earliest regions to industrialize and the largest rustbelt in China, but study on the impacts of its socioeconomic factors on CO₂ emissions is still in short, though it is essential for guiding the pathways to achieve low-carbon socioeconomic transition. We adopted the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to identify the main contributors to emissions increase in Heilongjiang province during 2002-2012, which is the heartland of Northeast revitalization. The results show that the increase in CO₂ emissions was mainly driven by growth in per-capita final demand, which generated 203.8 Mt (153.6%) upstream CO₂ emissions between 2002 and 2012. Changes in production structure and final demand structure had smaller impacts on CO₂ emissions increase (36.1 Mt and 27.0 Mt). However, the positive influences were largely overwhelmed by change in emission intensity, which avoided 135.4 Mt (-102%) CO₂ emissions. Therefore, appropriate measures related to energy structure optimization and efficiency improvement should be implemented. Especially, increasing the proportion of wind, solar and biomass energy in Heilongjiang, where renewable energy is abundant, would reduce the CO₂ emissions significantly. In addition, domestic export took the lead position in driving the CO₂ emissions in Heilongjiang, accounting for 37.6%-43.1% annual emissions between 2002 and 2012. Thus, some financial instrument, such as tax relief for less carbon intensive exports could be adopted to prompt upstream suppliers to decarbonize their production processes.