Mumps epidemic dynamics in the United States before vaccination (1923-1932)

Mumps is a vaccine-preventable, reemerging, and highly transmissible infectious disease. Widespread vaccination dramatically reduced cases; however, case counts have been increasing over the past 20 years. To provide a quantitative overview of historical mumps dynamics that can act as baseline information to help identify causes of mumps reemergence, we analyzed timeseries of cases reported from 1923 to 1932 in the United States. During that time, 239,230 mumps cases were reported in 70 cities. Larger cities reported annual epidemics and smaller cities reported intermittent, sporadic outbreaks. The critical community size above which transmission continuously occurred was likely between 365,583 and 781,188 individuals but could range as high as 3,376,438 individuals. Mumps cases increased as city size increased, suggesting density-dependent transmission. Using a density-dependent SEIR model, we calculated a mean effective reproductive number (Re) of 1.2. Re varied by city and over time, with periodic high values that could characterize short periods of very high transmission known as superspreading events. Case counts most often peaked in March, with higher-than-average transmission from December through April and showed a correlation with weekly births. While certain city pairs in Midwestern states had synchronous outbreaks, most outbreaks were less synchronous and not driven by distance between cities. This work demonstrates the importance of long-term infectious disease surveillance data and will inform future studies on mumps reemergence and control.

Seroprevalence of mumps before the introduction of mumps-containing vaccine in Lao PDR: results from a nationwide cross-sectional population-based survey

OBJECTIVE

Mumps-containing vaccine is currently not a component of the national immunization schedule in Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR). Mumps itself is not a notifiable disease in the country and the seroprevalence of anti-mumps immunoglobulin G (IgG) in the general population is unknown. In this study, anti-mumps IgG was measured in 2058 blood samples to evaluate population immunity in the country.

RESULTS

The seroprevalence of anti-mumps IgG showed a gradual increase with increasing age, starting at 10.6% (95% CI 7.4-13.7) in participants aged 1-2 years, and almost plateaued at about 75% in individuals older than 11-12 years, though it still tended toward a small increase up to 89.6% (95% CI 86.6-92.6) in participants aged 40 years or older. Compared with the results of previous studies, this increase with increasing age is less marked and the plateau of anti-mumps seroprevalence is lower. We attribute this result mainly to the lower population density in Lao PDR.