Using species distribution modeling to generate relative abundance information in socio-politically unstable territories: Conservation of Felidae in the central-western region of Mexico

The distribution range and population abundance of species provide fundamental information on the species-habitat relationship required for management and conservation. Abundance inherently provides more information about the ecology of species than do occurrence data. However, information on abundance is scarce for most species, mainly at large spatial scales. The objective of this work was, therefore, to provide information regarding the population status of six wild felids inhabiting territories in Mexico that are inaccessible or politically unstable. This was done using species distribution models derived from occurrence data. We used distribution data at a continental scale for the wild felids inhabiting Mexico: jaguar (Panthera onca), bobcat (Lynx rufus), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), cougar (Puma concolor), margay (Leopardus wiedii), and jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi) to predict environmental suitability (estimated by both Maxent and the distance to niche centroid, DNC). Suitability was then examined by relating to a capture rate-based index, in a well-monitored area in central western Mexico in order to assess their performance as proxies of relative abundance. Our results indicate that the environmental suitability patterns predicted by both algorithms were comparable. However, the strength of the relationship between the suitability and relative abundance of local populations differed across species and between algorithms, with the bobcat and DNC, respectively, having the best fit, although the relationship was not consistent in all the models. This paper presents the potential of implementing species distribution models in order to predict the relative abundance of wild felids in Mexico and offers guidance for the proper interpretation of the relationship between suitability and population abundance. The results obtained provide a robust information base on which to outline specific conservation actions and on which to examine the potential status of endangered species inhabiting remote or politically unstable territories in which on-field monitoring programs are not feasible.

Habitat fragmentation reduces survival and drives source-sink dynamics for a large carnivore

Rigorous understanding of how environmental conditions impact population dynamics is essential for species conservation, especially in mixed-use landscapes where source-sink dynamics may be at play. Conservation of large carnivore populations in fragmented, human-dominated landscapes is critical for their long-term persistence. However, living in human-dominated landscapes comes with myriad costs, including direct anthropogenic mortality and sublethal energetic costs. How these costs impact individual fitness and population dynamics are not fully understood, partly due to the difficulty in collecting long-term demographic data for these species. Here, we analyzed an 11-year dataset on puma (Puma concolor) space use, mortality, and reproduction in the Santa Cruz Mountains, California, USA, to quantify how living in a fragmented landscape impacts individual survival and population dynamics. Long-term exposure to housing density drove mortality risk for female pumas, resulting in an 18-percentage-point reduction in annual survival for females in exurban versus remote areas. While the overall population growth rate appeared stable, reduced female survival in more developed areas resulted in source-sink dynamics across the study area, with 42.1% of the Santa Cruz Mountains exhibiting estimated population growth rates <1. Since habitat selection is often used as a proxy for habitat quality, we also assessed whether puma habitat selection predicted source and sink areas. Patterns of daytime puma habitat selection predicted source areas, while time-of-day-independent habitat selection performed less well as a proxy. These results illuminate the individual- and population-level consequences of habitat fragmentation for large carnivores, illustrating that habitat fragmentation can produce source-sink dynamics that may not be apparent from other metrics of habitat quality. Locally, conserving high-quality source habitat within the Santa Cruz Mountains is necessary to support long-term puma population persistence. More broadly, source-sink dynamics may at play for other carnivore populations in similar fragmented systems, and linking landscape conditions to population dynamics is essential for effective conservation. Caution should be used in inferring habitat quality from habitat selection alone, but these results shed light on metrics of selection that may be better or worse proxies to identify source areas for large carnivores.

Is the Lesser Khingan Suitable for the Amur Tiger Restoration? Perspectives with the Current State of the Habitat and Prey Base

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris) has a status of being endangered on the world's IUCN red list. The northwestern part of its range is situated in Russia and China, where tigers were exterminated by humans in the 1950-1970s. To restore tiger population within a historical range, an estimation of the habitat suitability is firstly needed. The Lesser Khingan mountains (Heilongjiang) was analyzed. Habitat types were mapped by satellite images analysis and field proven. The potential habitats of the main tiger's prey species (wild boar (Sus scrofa), roe deer (Capreolus pygargus), and red deer (Cervus elaphus xanthopygus) were also assessed. Maximum entropy and linear discriminant analysis methods were applied and compared for species distribution modeling (SDM). Species distribution maps were used to design an ecological network. The fragmentation of habitat patches was evaluated by spatial ecological metrics. The habitat patches with the best metrics were assigned as cores for the ecological network, which were connected by calculated corridors. The least cost distance method (based on distance to roads and settlements) was used. The recovery of the Amur tiger in habitats of China's Lesser Khingan is shown to be possible. Types of habitats were calculated as natural corridors for moving tigers. They are mainly located at the forests' edges and characterized with various canopy structures and high variability in the tree species composition. Three potential transboundary corridors are described: (a) foothills and low mountains of the northern Lesser Khingan; (b) connection between the southeast Lesser Khingan and the western part of the Wandashan mountain system; and (c) corridor within foothills and low mountains of the eastern part of Lesser Khingan. It is recommended to establish protected areas for the important tiger core habitats, and the main optimal ways for their migrations are described during the current investigation. Moreover, it is necessary to implement habitat recovery activities for key areas.

Vital rates of two small populations of brown bears in Canada and range-wide relationship between population size and trend

Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (<50 individuals). We estimated vital rates and trends in two adjacent but genetically distinct, threatened brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in British Columbia, Canada, following the cessation of hunting. One population had approximately 45 resident bears but had some genetic and geographic connectivity to neighboring populations, while the other population had <25 individuals and was isolated. We estimated population-specific vital rates by monitoring survival and reproduction of telemetered female bears and their dependent offspring from 2005 to 2018. In the larger, connected population, independent female survival was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.96-1.00) and the survival of cubs in their first year was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.62-0.95). In the smaller, isolated population, independent female survival was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64-0.93) and first-year cub survival was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.11-0.67). Reproductive rates did not differ between populations. The large differences in age-specific survival estimates resulted in a projected population increase in the larger population (λ = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.13) and population decrease in the smaller population (λ = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72-0.95). Low female survival in the smaller population was the result of both continued human-caused mortality and an unusually high rate of natural mortality. Low cub survival may have been due to inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity common in small populations, or to limited resources. In a systematic literature review, we compared our population trend estimates with those reported for other small populations (<300 individuals) of brown bears. Results suggest that once brown bear populations become small and isolated, populations rarely increase and, even with intensive management, recovery remains challenging.

Cross-species transmission and evolutionary dynamics of canine distemper virus during a spillover in African lions of Serengeti National Park

The outcome of pathogen spillover from a reservoir to a novel host population can range from a "dead-end" when there is no onward transmission in the recipient population, to epidemic spread and even establishment in new hosts. Understanding the evolutionary epidemiology of spillover events leading to discrete outcomes in novel hosts is key to predicting risk and can lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms of emergence. Here we use a Bayesian phylodynamic approach to examine cross-species transmission and evolutionary dynamics during a canine distemper virus (CDV) spillover event causing clinical disease and population decline in an African lion population (Panthera leo) in the Serengeti Ecological Region between 1993 and 1994. Using 21 near-complete viral genomes from four species we found that this large-scale outbreak was likely  ignited by a single cross-species spillover event from a canid reservoir to noncanid hosts <1 year before disease detection and explosive spread of CDV in lions. Cross-species transmission from other noncanid species probably fuelled the high prevalence of CDV across spatially structured lion prides. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) could have acted as the proximate source of CDV exposure in lions. We report 13 nucleotide substitutions segregating CDV strains found in canids and noncanids. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that virus evolution played a role in CDV emergence in noncanid hosts following spillover during the outbreak, suggest that host barriers to clinical infection can limit outcomes of CDV spillover in novel host species.

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (Atelocynus microtis)

The persistent high deforestation rate and fragmentation of the Amazon forests are the main threats to their biodiversity. To anticipate and mitigate these threats, it is important to understand and predict how species respond to the rapidly changing landscape. The short-eared dog Atelocynus microtis is the only Amazon-endemic canid and one of the most understudied wild dogs worldwide. We investigated short-eared dog habitat associations on two spatial scales. First, we used the largest record database ever compiled for short-eared dogs in combination with species distribution models to map species habitat suitability, estimate its distribution range and predict shifts in species distribution in response to predicted deforestation across the entire Amazon (regional scale). Second, we used systematic camera trap surveys and occupancy models to investigate how forest cover and forest fragmentation affect the space use of this species in the Southern Brazilian Amazon (local scale). Species distribution models suggested that the short-eared dog potentially occurs over an extensive and continuous area, through most of the Amazon region south of the Amazon River. However, approximately 30% of the short-eared dog's current distribution is expected to be lost or suffer sharp declines in habitat suitability by 2027 (within three generations) due to forest loss. This proportion might reach 40% of the species distribution in unprotected areas and exceed 60% in some interfluves (i.e. portions of land separated by large rivers) of the Amazon basin. Our local-scale analysis indicated that the presence of forest positively affected short-eared dog space use, while the density of forest edges had a negative effect. Beyond shedding light on the ecology of the short-eared dog and refining its distribution range, our results stress that forest loss poses a serious threat to the conservation of the species in a short time frame. Hence, we propose a re-assessment of the short-eared dog's current IUCN Red List status (Near Threatened) based on findings presented here. Our study exemplifies how data can be integrated across sources and modelling procedures to improve our knowledge of relatively understudied species.

Can hyena behaviour provide information on population trends of sympatric carnivores?

Mammalian carnivores are declining worldwide owing to human activities. Behavioural indicators have the potential to help identify population trends and inform conservation actions, although this area of research is understudied. We investigate whether behaviour is linked to abundance in a community of carnivores in the Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Anthropogenic disturbance increased exponentially in parts of the Reserve between 1988 and 2017, mainly owing to daily incursions by large numbers of livestock and tourists. Previous research showed that hyena behaviour changed markedly during this period. Through a series of vignettes, we inquire whether hyena behaviours correlate with changes in abundance of hyenas themselves, or those of other carnivore species in the region. We find that changes in spotted hyena behaviour in disturbed areas, but not in undisturbed areas, can be linked to changes in their demography (vignette 1). We also find that declines in observed lion-hyena interactions, as well as increases in spotted hyena abundance, are probably caused by competitive release of hyenas from declining lion abundance (vignette 2). Finally, we demonstrate that in some cases, hyena behaviour and demography is linked to the density and distribution of sympatric carnivores, and that behavioural changes in hyenas can provide information on shifts within the carnivore community (vignettes 3 and 4). Our vignettes reveal intriguing relationships between behaviour and demography that should be explored in future research. Pairing behavioural studies with more traditional monitoring efforts can yield useful insights regarding population and community trends, and aid wildlife conservation and management. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Multispecies hierarchical modeling reveals variable responses of African carnivores to management alternatives

Carnivore communities face unprecedented threats from humans. Yet, management regimes have variable effects on carnivores, where species may persist or decline in response to direct or indirect changes to the ecosystem. Using a hierarchical multispecies modeling approach, we examined the effects of alternative management regimes (i.e., active vs. passive enforcement of regulations) on carnivore abundances and group sizes at both species and community levels in the Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Alternative management regimes have created a dichotomy in ecosystem conditions within the Reserve, where active enforcement of regulations maintains low levels of human disturbance in the Mara Triangle and passive enforcement of regulations in the Talek region permits multiple forms of human disturbance. Our results demonstrate that these alternative management regimes have variable effects on 11 observed carnivore species. As predicted, some species, such as African lions and bat-eared foxes, have higher population densities in the Mara Triangle, where regulations are actively enforced. Yet, other species, including black-backed jackals and spotted hyenas, have higher population densities in the Talek region where enforcement is passive. Multiple underlying mechanisms, including behavioral plasticity and competitive release, are likely causing higher black-backed jackals and spotted hyena densities in the disturbed Talek region. Our multispecies modeling framework reveals that carnivores do not react to management regimes uniformly, shaping carnivore communities by differentially producing winning and losing species. Some carnivore species require active enforcement of regulations for effective conservation, while others more readily adapt (and in some instances thrive in response) to lax management enforcement and resulting anthropogenic disturbance. Yet, high levels of human disturbance appear to be negatively affecting the majority of carnivores, with potential consequences that may permeate throughout the rest of the ecosystem. Community approaches to monitoring carnivores should be adopted as single species monitoring may overlook important intra-community variability.

Competition between sympatric wolf taxa: an example involving African and Ethiopian wolves

Carnivore populations are declining globally due to range contraction, persecution and prey depletion. One consequence of these patterns is increased range and niche overlap with other carnivores, and thus an elevated potential for competitive exclusion. Here, we document competition between an endangered canid, the Ethiopian wolf (EW), and the newly discovered African wolf (AW) in central Ethiopia. The diet of the ecological specialist EW was dominated by rodents, whereas the AW consumed a more diverse diet also including insects and non-rodent mammals. EWs used predominantly intact habitat, whereas AWs used mostly areas disturbed by humans and their livestock. We observed 82 encounters between the two species, of which 94% were agonistic. The outcomes of agonistic encounters followed a territory-specific dominance pattern, with EWs dominating in intact habitat and AWs in human-disturbed areas. For AWs, the likelihood of winning encounters also increased with group size. Rodent species consumed by EWs were also available in the human-disturbed areas, suggesting that these areas could be suitable habitat for EWs if AWs were not present. Increasing human encroachment not only affects the prey base of EWs, but also may impact their survival by intensifying competition with sympatric AWs.

Prey depletion as a threat to the world's large carnivores

Large terrestrial carnivores are an ecologically important, charismatic and highly endangered group of species. Here, we assess the importance of prey depletion as a driver of large carnivore endangerment globally using lists of prey species for each large carnivore compiled from the literature. We consider spatial variation in prey endangerment, changes in endangerment over time and the causes of prey depletion, finding considerable evidence that loss of prey base is a major and wide-ranging threat among large carnivore species. In particular, the clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa), Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi), tiger (Panthera tigris), dhole (Cuon alpinus) and Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis) all have at least 40% of their prey classified as threatened on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List and, along with the leopard (Panethra pardus), all of these species except the Ethiopian wolf have at least 50% of their prey classified as declining. Of the 494 prey species in our analysis, an average of just 6.9% of their ranges overlap protected areas. Together these results show the importance of a holistic approach to conservation that involves protecting both large carnivores directly and the prey upon which they depend.

Co-Adaptation Is Key to Coexisting with Large Carnivores

There is a pressing need to integrate large carnivore species into multi-use landscapes outside protected areas. However, an unclear understanding of coexistence hinders the realization of this goal. Here, we provide a comprehensive conceptualization of coexistence in which mutual adaptations by both large carnivores and humans have a central role.

A call for tiger management using "reserves" of genetic diversity

Tigers (Panthera tigris), like many large carnivores, are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, primarily habitat loss and poaching. Current conservation plans for tigers focus on population expansion, with the goal of doubling census size in the next 10 years. Previous studies have shown that because the demographic decline was recent, tiger populations still retain a large amount of genetic diversity. Although maintaining this diversity is extremely important to avoid deleterious effects of inbreeding, management plans have yet to consider predictive genetic models. We used coalescent simulations based on previously sequenced mitochondrial fragments (n = 125) from 5 of 6 extant subspecies to predict the population growth needed to maintain current genetic diversity over the next 150 years. We found that the level of gene flow between populations has a large effect on the local population growth necessary to maintain genetic diversity, without which tigers may face decreases in fitness. In the absence of gene flow, we demonstrate that maintaining genetic diversity is impossible based on known demographic parameters for the species. Thus, managing for the genetic diversity of the species should be prioritized over the riskier preservation of distinct subspecies. These predictive simulations provide unique management insights, hitherto not possible using existing analytical methods.

Livestock husbandry as a tool for carnivore conservation in Africa’s community rangelands: a case–control study

Conflict between people and wildlife is a major issue in both wildlife conservation and rural development. In African rangelands, species such as African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus), cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), lions (Panthera leo), leopards (Panthera pardus), and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta) may kill livestock and are therefore themselves killed by local pastoralists. Such conflict has led to the extirpation of these species from many areas, and also impacts the livelihoods of local livestock farmers. To investigate the possibilities for coexistence of people, livestock, and large predators in community rangelands, we measured the effectiveness of traditional livestock husbandry in reducing depredation by wild carnivores, using a case–control approach. Different measures were effective against different predator species but, overall, the risk of predator attack by day was lowest for small herds, accompanied by herd dogs as well as human herders, grazing in open habitat. By night, the risk of attack was lowest for herds held in enclosures (‘bomas’) with dense walls, pierced by few gates, where both men and domestic dogs were present. Unexpectedly, the presence of scarecrows increased the risks of attack on bomas. Our findings suggest that improvements to livestock husbandry can contribute to the conservation and recovery of large carnivores in community rangelands, although other measures such as prey conservation and control of domestic dog diseases are also likely to be necessary for some species.

Demography, hunting ecology, and pathogen exposure of domestic dogs in the Isoso of Bolivia

Disease is increasingly recognized as a threat to the conservation of wildlife, and in many cases the source of disease outbreaks in wild carnivores is the domestic dog. For disease to spill over from a domestic to a wild population, three conditions must be satisfied: susceptibility of the wild species, presence of the disease agent in the domestic population, and contact between the two populations of interest. We investigated the potential for disease spillover from the domestic dog population to the wild carnivore population in the Isoso of Bolivia, an area of tropical dry forest contiguous with a national park. Using questionnaires and discussions with residents, we gathered data on the demography of dogs in the Isoso, including adult and neonatal mortality, litter size, and hunting frequency. We analyzed a large data set containing self-recorded information on hunting in various communities of the Isoso to determine the extent of dog participation in hunting and the duration of hunting trips. Finally, we took blood samples from dogs in the Isoso for a serosurvey of common canine pathogens. More than 95% of dogs had positive titers to canine distemper virus and canine parvovirus. There was also a high seroprevalence in dogs for other pathogens, a high population turnover of dogs (which may allow diseases to be maintained endemically), and frequent opportunities for contact between domestic and wild carnivores. Based on our results and the susceptibility of wild species previously reported in the literature, domestic dogs represent a disease risk for wildlife in the Bolivian Isoso.