Mean Temperature and Drought Projections in Central Africa: A Population-Based Study of Food Insecurity, Childhood Malnutrition and Mortality, and Infectious Disease

The Central African Region is an agricultural and fishing-based economy, with 40% of the population living in rural communities. The negative impacts of climate change have caused economic/health-related adverse impacts and food insecurity. This original article aims to research four key themes: (i) acute food insecurity (AFI); (ii) childhood malnutrition and mortality; (iii) infectious disease burden; and (iv) drought and mean temperature projections throughout the twenty-first century. Food insecurity was mapped in Central Africa based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for AFI. The global hunger index (GHI) was presented along with the proportion of children with undernourishment, stunting, wasting, and mortality. Data for infectious disease burden was computed by assessing the adjusted rate of change (AROC) of mortality due to diarrhea among children and the burden of death rates due to pneumonia across all age groups. Finally, the mean drought index was computed through the year 2100. This population-based study identifies high levels of hunger across a majority of the countries, with the mean drought index suggesting extreme ends of wet and dry days and an overall rise of 1-3 °C. This study is a source of evidence for stakeholders, policymakers, and the population residing in Central Africa.

Short-Term Impacts of Meteorology, Air Pollution, and Internet Search Data on Viral Diarrhea Infection among Children in Jilin Province, China

The influence of natural environmental factors and social factors on children’s viral diarrhea remains inconclusive. This study aimed to evaluate the short-term effects of temperature, precipitation, air quality, and social attention on children’s viral diarrhea in temperate regions of China by using the distribution lag nonlinear model (DLNM). We found that low temperature affected the increase in children’s viral diarrhea infection for about 1 week, while high temperature and heavy precipitation affected the increase in children’s viral diarrhea infection risk for at least 3 weeks. As the increase of the air pollution index may change the daily life of the public, the infection of children’s viral diarrhea can be restrained within 10 days, but the risk of infection will increase after 2 weeks. The extreme network search may reflect the local outbreak of viral diarrhea, which will significantly improve the infection risk. The above factors can help the departments of epidemic prevention and control create early warnings of high-risk outbreaks in time and assist the public to deal with the outbreak of children’s viral diarrhea.

Analysis of Air Mean Temperature Anomalies by Using Horizontal Visibility Graphs

The last decades have been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface. An increasing interest in climate variability is appearing, and many research works have investigated the main effects on different climate variables. Some of them apply complex networks approaches to explore the spatial relation between distinct grid points or stations. In this work, the authors investigate whether topological properties change over several years. To this aim, we explore the application of the horizontal visibility graph (HVG) approach which maps a time series into a complex network. Data used in this study include a 60-year period of daily mean temperature anomalies in several stations over the Iberian Peninsula (Spain). Average degree, degree distribution exponent, and global clustering coefficient were analyzed. Interestingly, results show that they agree on a lack of significant trends, unlike annual mean values of anomalies, which present a characteristic upward trend. The main conclusions obtained are that complex networks structures and nonlinear features, such as weak correlations, appear not to be affected by rising temperatures derived from global climate conditions. Furthermore, different locations present a similar behavior and the intrinsic nature of these signals seems to be well described by network parameters.

Two cryptic species of California mustard within Caulanthus lasiophyllus

PREMISE

Cryptic species are evolutionarily distinct lineages lacking distinguishing morphological traits. Hidden diversity may be lurking in widespread species whose distributions cross phylogeographic barriers. This study investigates molecular and morphological variation in the widely distributed Caulanthus lasiophyllus (Brassicaceae) in comparison to its closest relatives.

METHODS

Fifty-two individuals of C. lasiophyllus from across the species' range were sequenced for the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) and the chloroplast trnL-F region. A subset of these samples were examined for the chloroplast ndhF gene. All 52 individuals were scored for 13 morphological traits, as well as monthly and annual climate conditions at the collection locality. Morphological and molecular results are compared with the closest relatives-C. anceps and C. flavescens-in the "Guillenia Clade." To test for polyploidy, genome size estimates were made for four populations.

RESULTS

Caulanthus lasiophyllus consists of two distinct lineages separated by eight ITS differences-eight times more variation than what distinguishes C. anceps and C. flavescens. Fewer variable sites were detected in trnL-F and ndhF regions, yet these data are consistent with the ITS results. The two lineages of C. lasiophyllus are geographically and climatically distinct; yet morphologically overlapping. Their genome sizes are not consistently different.

CONCLUSIONS

Two cryptic species within C. lasiophyllus are distinguished at the molecular, geographic, and climatic scales. They have similar genome sizes and are morphologically broadly overlapping, but an ephemeral basal leaf character may help distinguish the species.

Influence of temperature variation on incubation period, hatching success, sex ratio, and phenotypes in Caiman latirostris

Temperature is crucial for reptiles, also during embryonic development, particularly for species with temperature-dependent sex determination. Under natural conditions, Broad-snouted caiman (Caiman latirostris) eggs are influenced by thermal changes in the interior of the nest related to the external environmental temperature. As nests are subject to variations in temperature and most lab studies on crocodilian incubation have been carried out at constant temperatures, we were interested in determining how temperature fluctuations may affect the development of caiman embryos. We investigated the effects of incubation at constant temperatures (31°C, 32°C, and 33°C) and fluctuating temperatures (31 ± 2, 32 ± 1, and 32 ± 2°C) on the following aspects: incubation period duration, hatching success, sex ratio, total length, and body mass of C. latirostris hatchlings. Eggs incubated at 31°C produced 100% females, those at 32°C produced 71.6% females (however, the sex ratio was nest related), and at 33°C produced 100% males. We found a masculinizing effect when incubation was at 31 ± 2°C compared with a constant 31°C; and temperature fluctuations at 32°C (32 ± 1 and 32 ± 2°C) had a negative effect on hatchlings size and mass, and hatching success compared with constant incubation temperatures of 32°C and 33°C. Finally, the effect of temperature variation during the incubation period on sex ratio, hatching success, and phenotype depends on the mean temperature, as the fluctuation around 31°C affected the sex ratios and incubation period, and the fluctuation around 32°C affected hatchling success and size.

The effect of meteorological factors on adolescent hand, foot, and mouth disease and associated effect modifiers

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious viral illness that commonly affects infants and children. This infection is an emerging infectious disease in Rizhao in recent years. The present study examined the short-term effects of meteorological factors on adolescent HFMD in Rizhao.

Design

A generalized additive Poisson model was applied to estimate the effects of meteorological factors on adolescent HFMD occurrence in 2010–2012. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to examine the potential effect modifiers of the association in terms of age, sex, and occupation.

Results

A positive effect of temperature was observed (ER [excess risk]=1.93%, 95% CI: 1.05 to 2.82% for 1°C increase on lag 5 day). A negative effect of relative humidity at lag 1 day and positive effects were found on lag 5–7 days, and an adverse effect was observed for sunshine at lag days 3–4 (ER=−0.71%, 95% CI: −1.25 to −0.17% on lag day 4). We also found that age, sex, and occupation might be important effect modifiers of the effects of weather variables on HFMD.

Conclusions

This study suggests that meteorological factors might be an important predictor of adolescent HFMD occurrence in Rizhao. Age, sex, and occupation might be important effect modifiers of the effects.

Climate variability and increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence in Singapore

Introduction

Dengue is currently a major public health burden in Asia Pacific Region. This study aims to establish an association between dengue incidence, mean temperature and precipitation, and further discuss how weather predictors influence the increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue in Singapore during the period 2000–2007.

Materials and methods

Weekly dengue incidence data, daily mean temperature and precipitation and the midyear population data in Singapore during 2000–2007 were retrieved and analysed. We employed a time series Poisson regression model including time factors such as time trends, lagged terms of weather predictors, considered autocorrelation, and accounted for changes in population size by offsetting.

Results

The weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were statistically significant related to the increases of dengue incidence in Singapore. Our findings showed that dengue incidence increased linearly at time lag of 5–16 and 5–20 weeks succeeding elevated temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, negative association occurred at lag week 17–20 with low weekly mean temperature as well as lag week 1–4 and 17–20 with low cumulative precipitation.

Discussion

As Singapore experienced higher weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the years 2004–2007, our results signified hazardous impacts of climate factors on the increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue cases. The ongoing global climate change might potentially increase the burden of dengue fever infection in near future.