The imperative for regenerative agriculture

A review is made of the current state of agriculture, emphasising issues of soil erosion and dependence on fossil fuels, in regard to achieving food security for a relentlessly enlarging global population. Soil has been described as "the fragile, living skin of the Earth", and yet both its aliveness and fragility have all too often been ignored in the expansion of agriculture across the face of the globe. Since it is a pivotal component in a global nexus of soil-water-air-energy, how we treat the soil can impact massively on climate change - with either beneficial or detrimental consequences, depending on whether the soil is preserved or degraded. Regenerative agriculture has at its core the intention to improve the health of soil or to restore highly degraded soil, which symbiotically enhances the quality of water, vegetation and land-productivity. By using methods of regenerative agriculture, it is possible not only to increase the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) in existing soils, but to build new soil. This has the effect of drawing down carbon from the atmosphere, while simultaneously improving soil structure and soil health, soil fertility and crop yields, water retention and aquifer recharge - thus ameliorating both flooding and drought, and also the erosion of further soil, since runoff is reduced. Since food production on a more local scale is found to preserve the soil and its quality, urban food production should be seen as a significant potential contributor to regenerative agriculture in the future, so long as the methods employed are themselves 'regenerative'. If localisation is to become a dominant strategy for dealing with a vastly reduced use of fossil fuels, and preserving soil quality - with increased food production in towns and cities - it will be necessary to incorporate integrated ('systems') design approaches such as permaculture and the circular economy (which minimise and repurpose 'waste') within the existing urban infrastructure. In addition to growing food in urban space, such actions as draught-proofing and thermally insulating existing building stock, and living/ working on a more local scale, would serve well to cut our overall energy consumption. In order to curb our use of fossil fuels, methods for reducing overall energy use must be considered at least equally important to expanding low-carbon energy production. In synopsis, it is clear that only by moving from the current linear, 'take, make, dispose (waste-creation)' model for resource-consumption, to the systemic, circular alternative of 'reduce, reuse, recycle, regenerate', are we likely to meet demands for future generations.

Hydrocarbon liquefaction: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy

Current world capacity of hydrocarbon liquefaction is around 400,000 barrels per day, providing a marginal share of the global liquid fuel supply. This study performs a broad review of technical, economic, environmental and supply chain issues related to coal-to-liquids (CTL) and gas-to-liquids (GTL). We find three issues predominate. First, significant amounts of coal and gas would be required to obtain anything more than a marginal production of liquids. Second, the economics of CTL plants are clearly prohibitive, but are better for GTL. Nevertheless, large-scale GTL plants still require very high upfront costs, and for three real-world GTL plants out of four, the final cost has been so far approximately three times that initially budgeted. Small-scale GTL holds potential for associated gas. Third, both CTL and GTL incur significant environmental impacts, ranging from increased greenhouse gas emissions (in the case of CTL) to water contamination. Environmental concerns may significantly affect growth of these projects until adequate solutions are found.

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates. These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oilfields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

Using growth curves to forecast regional resource recovery: approaches, analytics and consistency tests

There is growing concern about the depletion of hydrocarbon resources and the risk of near-term peaks in production. These concerns hinge upon contested estimates of the recoverable resources of different regions and the associated forecasts of regional production. Beginning with Hubbert, an influential group of analysts have used growth curves both to estimate recoverable resources and to forecast future production. Despite widespread use, these 'curve-fitting' techniques remain a focus of misunderstanding and dispute. The aim of this paper is to classify and explain these techniques and to identify both their relative suitability in different circumstances and the expected level of confidence in their results. The paper develops a mathematical framework that maps curve-fitting techniques onto the available data for conventional oil and highlights the critical importance of the so-called 'reserve growth'. It then summarizes the historical origins, contemporary application and strengths and weaknesses of each group of curve-fitting techniques and uses illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to explore the extent to which these techniques provide consistent estimates of recoverable resources. The paper argues that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim, the confidence bounds on the results are wider than commonly assumed and the techniques have a tendency to underestimate recoverable resources.

Climate change and peak oil—two large-scale disruptions likely to adversely affect long-term tourism growth in the Asia Pacific

Climate change and peak oil are likely to have a significant impact on future tourism growth in the Asia Pacific region. Dealing with these issues and the policies and strategies required for mitigation and adaptation need to be given far greater attention by the tourism industry and the public sector than has hitherto been the case. Existing approaches based on crisis and disaster management may be inadequate and a new approach to deal with shocks of this nature is required. This regional spotlight suggests a new approach based on the concept of disruption which is defined as an event that causes substantial and long-term change in the structure of the tourism industry.

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Peak oil and climate change are likely to adversely affect projected tourism growth in the Asia Pacific region.

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Current definitions of the terms crisis and disaster are inadequate to describe the impact of large scale events such as peak oil and climate change.

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The term ‘disruption’ provides a more comprehensive approach to dealing with these issues.

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The tourism industry in the Asia Pacific region needs to become more proactive in planning to cope with future large scale disruptions.

Peak phosphorus - peak food? The need to close the phosphorus cycle

The peak in the world production of phosphorus has been predicted to occur in 2033, based on world reserves of rock phosphate (URR) reckoned at around 24,000 million tonnes (Mt), with around 18,000 Mt remaining. This figure was reckoned-up to 71,000 Mt, by the USGS, in 2012, but a production maximum during the present century is still highly probable. There are complex issues over what the demand will be for phosphorus in the future, as measured against a rising population (from 7 billion to over 9 billion in 2050), and a greater per capita demand for fertiliser to grow more grain, in part to feed animals and meet a rising demand for meat by a human species that is not merely more populous but more affluent. As a counterweight to this, we may expect that greater efficiencies in the use of phosphorus - including recycling from farms and of human and animal waste - will reduce the per capita demand for phosphate rock. The unseen game changer is peak oil, since phosphate is mined and recovered using machinery powered by liquid fuels refined from crude oil. Hence, peak oil and peak phosphorus might appear as conjoined twins. There is no unequivocal case that we can afford to ignore the likelihood of a supply-demand gap for phosphorus occurring sometime this century, and it would be perilous to do so.

Feeding and healing the world: through regenerative agriculture and permaculture

The study of soil is a mature science, whereas related practical methods of regenerative agriculture and permaculture are not. However, despite a paucity of detailed peer reviewed research published on these topics, there is overwhelming evidence both that the methods work and they may offer the means to address a number of prevailing environmental challenges, e.g. peak oil, climate change, carbon capture, unsustainable agriculture and food shortages, peak phosphorus (phosphate), water shortages, environmental pollution, desert reclamation, and soil degradation. What is lacking is a proper scientific study, made in hand with actual development projects. By elucidating the scientific basis of these remarkable phenomena, we may obtain the means for solving some of the otherwise insurmountable problems confronting humanity, simply by observing, and working with, the patterns and forces of nature. This article is intended as a call to arms to make serious investment in researching and actualising these methods on a global scale. Despite claims that peak oil is no longer a threat because vast resources of gas and shale oil (tight oil) can now be recovered by fracking (hydraulic fracturing) combined with horizontal drilling, the reality is that proven actual reserves are only adequate to delay the peak by a few years. Furthermore, because of the rapid depletion rates of flow from gas wells and oil wells that are accessed by fracking, it will be necessary to drill continuously and relentlessly to maintain output, and there are material limits of equipment, technology and trained personnel to do this. Moreover, to make any sensible difference to the liquid fuel crisis, which is the most immediate consequence of peak oil, it would be necessary to convert the worlds one billion vehicles to run on natural gas rather than liquid fuels refined from crude oil, and this would take some considerable time and effort. The loss of widespread personalised transportation is thus inevitable and imminent, meaning a loss of globalised civilisation and a mandatory return to living in smaller localised communities. Permaculture and regenerative agriculture offer potentially the means to provide food and materials on the small scale, and address the wider issues of carbon emissions, and resource shortages. Since over half the World's population lives in cities, it seems likely that strengthening the resilience of these environments, using urban permaculture, may be a crucial strategy in achieving a measured descent in our use of energy and other resources, rather than an abrupt collapse of civilization.

Solar energy: principles and possibilities

As the world faces an impending dearth of fossil fuels, most immediately oil, alternative sources of energy must be found. 174 PW worth of energy falls onto the top of the Earth's atmosphere in the form of sunlight which is almost 10,000 times the total amount of energy used by humans on Earth, as taken from all sources, oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear and hydroelectric power combined. If even a fraction of this could be harvested efficiently, the energy crunch could in principle be averted. Various means for garnering energy from the Sun are presented, including photovoltaics (PV), thin film solar cells, quantum dot cells, concentrating PV and thermal solar power stations, which are more efficient in practical terms. Finally the prospects of space based (satellite) solar power are considered. The caveat is that even if the entire world electricity budget could be met using solar energy, the remaining 80% of energy which is not used as electricity but thermal power (heat) still needs to be found in the absence of fossil fuels. Most pressingly, the decline of cheap plentiful crude oil (peak oil) will not find a substitution via solar unless a mainly electrified transportation system is devised and it is debatable that there is sufficient time and conventional energy remaining to accomplish this. The inevitable contraction of transportation will default a deconstruction of the globalised world economy into that of a system of localised communities.

Oil from algae; salvation from peak oil?

A review is presented of the use of algae principally to produce biodiesel fuel, as a replacement for conventional fuel derived from petroleum. The imperative for such a strategy is that cheap supplies of crude oil will begin to wane within a decade and land-based crops cannot provide more than a small amount of the fuel the world currently uses, even if food production were allowed to be severely compromised. For comparison, if one tonne of biodiesel might be produced say, from rape-seed per hectare, that same area of land might ideally yield 100 tonnes of biodiesel grown from algae. Placed into perspective, the entire world annual petroleum demand which is now provided for by 31 billion barrels of crude oil might instead be met from algae grown on an area equivalent to 4% of that of the United States. As an additional benefit, in contrast to growing crops it is not necessary to use arable land, since pond-systems might be placed anywhere, even in deserts, and since algae grow well on saline water or wastewaters, no additional burden is imposed on freshwater-a significant advantage, as water shortages threaten. Algae offer the further promise that they might provide future food supplies, beyond what can be offered by land-based agriculture to a rising global population.

The oil question: nature and prognosis

A review is given of the nature and origins of crude oil (petroleum) along with factors relating to its production and demand for it. The modern globalised world economy and its population has grown on the assumption of limitless supplies of cheap crude oil. Almost all agriculture now is completely dependent on available oil and natural gas to run machinery and to make chemical fertilizers. Our complacent regard for oil is however invalid and a gap between the relentlessly rising demand for oil and its supply is expected to appear at some time in the period 2010-2015. The global peak in oil production "peak oil" predicted by M. King Hubbert in 1956, will exacerbate the situation, and the world must seek to run and organise itself in an imminent reality where supplies of conventional crude oil are both limited and increasingly expensive. Providing the equivalent of 30 billion barrels of oil a year as is currently used across the globe, by unconventional kinds of oil, e.g. from oil shale and tar sands is not realistic. Since most of the oil produced in the world is refined into liquid fuels to run transportation, human survival will depend on devising localised economies and communities that necessarily rely far less on personalised transport (cars).