Comparison of real-world outcomes following immunotherapy in recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma with outcomes of randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVES

Evaluate outcomes of patients with recurrent or metastatic (R/M) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with immunotherapy (IO).

METHODS

Among patients with R/M HNSCC treated with IO in this retrospective single-institution cohort, Cox regression was used to compare overall survival (OS) for those with platinum-refractory disease and those treated in the first-line setting with OS from KEYNOTE-040/048, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression was used to identify predictors of OS.

RESULTS

There was no significant OS difference for those treated in the platinum-refractory setting when compared to patients on KEYNOTE-040 (HR = 1.22, p = 0.27), nor for the first-line setting compared to KEYNOTE-048 (HR = 1.23, p = 0.19). ECOG-PS 1 (HR = 2.00, p = 0.02) and ECOG-PS 2 (HR = 3.13, p < 0.01) were associated with worse OS. Higher absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) was associated with improved OS (HR = 0.93 per 100 cells/μL, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Real-world outcomes of IO in R/M HNSCC are similar to outcomes in randomized control trials, with performance status and ALC correlating with OS.

A retrospective evaluation of the presentation, prognostic factors and outcomes of neuroblastoma in Ugandan children

Neuroblastoma (NB) is the most common extracranial solid tumor of childhood. The complete burden and outcomes in Uganda are unknown. The study was a multicenter retrospective chart review of children aged between 0 to 15 years diagnosed with NB from 2010 to 2020. Demographic, clinical and tumor-related characteristics were extracted for analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression models were used to determine the one-year overall survival (OS) and identify prognostic factors. Seventy-five patients were evaluated, with a median age at diagnosis of 48 months (IQR 26-108 months). Fever (74.7%), weight loss (74.7%), high blood pressure (70.3%) and abdominal swelling/mass (65.3%) were the most common features at diagnosis. Suprarenal tumors (52%) and stage 4 disease (70.7%) were also common. The one-year OS was 60.0% (95%CI 56.8%; 64.3%) with a median survival time of 12.6 months (95% CI: 8.1; 20.8). The one-year OS for non-metastatic and metastatic disease was 67.3% and 42.6% (p = 0.11) respectively. Leukocytosis (p < 0.001) at diagnosis was of prognostic significance while clinical remission after induction chemotherapy (p < 0.001) provided survival advantages. Children who received maintenance chemotherapy had a longer median survival time of 38.5 months (range 10.8-69.5). Age (p = 0.001), lung metastasis (p < 0.001), and leukocytosis (p < 0.001) remained significant on multivariate analysis. In this Ugandan study, leukocytosis was a clinical predictor of prognosis, metastatic disease had management challenges and maintenance chemotherapy prolonged the survival time but not OS.

Clinical Outcomes of Renal Replacement Therapy in Pediatric Acute Kidney Injury: A 10-Year Retrospective Observational Study

Children with severe acute kidney injury (AKI) have had a high mortality rate despite the use of advanced renal replacement therapy (RRT). This study aims to determine the clinical outcomes and the predictors of survival in pediatric AKI requiring RRT in Thailand. All patients aged 1 month to 18 years with AKI requiring RRT in the Department of Pediatrics, Ramathibodi Hospital from January 1st, 2010 to December 31st, 2019 were enrolled. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained through a medical record review. There were 92 patients with a 45% survival rate. Five factors associated with mortality included multi-organ dysfunction syndrome, presence of sepsis, high pediatric risk of mortality III, use of nephrotoxic drugs, and use of vasopressors. By multivariate analysis, the presence of sepsis and the use of nephrotoxic drugs were independently associated with mortality. Patients with fluid overload ≥10% was associated with poor survival.

[Multifactorial assessment of prognostic features of adrenocortical cancer]

OBJECTIVE

To determine the predictors of the aggressive course of adrenocortical cancer (ACC). ACC is a rare malignant neoplasm of the adrenal cortex with a variable prognosis. At present, predicting the course of the disease and clinical outcome in patients presents significant difficulties, since many aspects of the treatment of ACC have not been studied or require clarification. In particular, the prognostic value of markers that are used in clinical practice has not been fully determined.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Histological and immunohistochemical studies of the surgical material of adrenal neoplasms were performed. The study included 73 patients with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of ACC: 51 (69.9%) women and 22 (30.1%) men aged 17 to 82 years. Cox regression model was used for survival analysis. Statistically significant factors (p<0.05) according to the results of independent regression analysis were included in the Kaplan-Meier analysis followed by pairwise comparison using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

An increased risk of recurrence is associated with the presence of pathological mitoses and excessive secretion of aldosterone, death - with stage IV according to the classification of the European Network for the Study of Adrenal Tumors (ENSAT), relapse and death - the value of mitotic activity more than 20, the Ki-67 index more than 12, the classic variant. Mitotic activity and hormonal activity were independent predictors of recurrence-free survival, mitotic activity and ENSAT stage were independent predictors of overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present work, potential predictors of the course of ACC are identified, which are available for use in routine practice. Based on the totality of clinical, morphological, immunohistochemical data used in the diagnosis of ACC, a conception of the patient's survival can be obtained.

Surgical resection of high-grade nonfunctional pancreatic neuroendocrine carcinoma is associated with improved survival

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The role of surgery in the treatment of nonfunctional pancreatic neuroendocrine carcinomas (PNEC) is not well defined. This study investigated the effect of surgical resection on cause-specific survival compared with nonoperative management.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database was utilized to identify patients with nonfunctional pancreatic neuroendocrine carcinoma diagnosed between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2015. Survival was modeled using Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Of the 488 patients identified, 137 (29%) underwent surgical resection of the primary site. Patients who underwent surgery had a median CSS of 31 months compared with 5 months in those who did not (p < 0.01). A survival benefit was observed when the cohort was stratified into local, nodal, and metastatic disease.

CONCLUSION

Resection of the primary site in the cohort of PNEC patients compiled by SEER is associated with improved survival. Further consideration be placed on primary surgical resection for PNEC while additional studies that can select specifically for high-grade, poorly differentiated carcinomas need to be undertaken.

Survival of Stroke Patients According to Hypertension Status in Northern Ethiopia: Seven Years Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Globally, stroke appears as a major cause of preventable deaths and disabilities. In Ethiopia, the intra-hospital mortality of stroke is significant; however, epidemiologic data are scarce whether there is a difference in the overall survival time between hypertensive and non-hypertensive adult stroke patients admitted in specialized hospitals. This study was intended to determine the survival of stroke patients according to their hypertension status admitted in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northern Ethiopia from March 1, 2012, to February 28, 2019.

Methods and Findings

A hospital-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among all cohorts of confirmed first-ever stroke patients admitted in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northern Ethiopia. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was applied to estimate the survival probability of hypertensive and non-hypertensive first-ever stroke patients. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine the adjusted hazard ratio of death for each main baseline predictor variable with 95% CI, and P-value <0.05 was used to declare statistical significance. The assumptions of the Cox proportional hazards regression model assessed by the global test, Schoenfeld residuals. There were 503 (323 were hypertensive, 180 Non-hypertensive) confirmed first, ever adult stroke patients, the overall median age of the patients was 65 years, IQR (53–75) years. Seventy-five (14.9%) of them were dead, with a median survival time of 48 days and 428 (85.1%) of them were censored. At any particular point in time, the hazard of death among hypertensive patients was two times higher than non-hypertensive patients, but this was not found to be a statistically significant (adjusted HR=2.13: 95% CI 0.66–6.81). Glasgow Coma Scale 3–8 at admission (adjusted HR=10.12; 95% CI 2.58–40.68), presence of stroke complications (adjusted HR=7.23; 95% CI 1.86–28.26) and borderline high total cholesterol level (adjusted HR=3.57; 95% CI 1.15–11.1) were the only independent predictors of intra-hospital patient mortality.

Conclusion

The overall survival time difference between hypertensive and non-hypertensive first-ever adult stroke patients was not statistically significant. Early identification and treatment of stroke complications, co-morbidities along strict follow-up of comatose patients may improve the intra-hospital survival of stroke patients, and we also recommend community-based studies using a large sample size.

Short term outcome and predictors of survival among birth asphyxiated babies at a tertiary academic hospital in Enugu, South East, Nigeria

Background

Birth asphyxia (BA) is a preventable cause of cerebral insults in newborns. It is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Of the 120 million babies born in third world countries annually, it is estimated that about 3.6 million will develop BA.

Objectives

We aimed to determine the short term outcome and predictors of survival among birth asphyxiated babies using Apgar score.

Methods

This study was carried out in the Newborn Unit of Enugu State University Teaching Hospital. In-hospital deliveries (Inborn) and those from other centers (Out-born) with one minute Apgar score ≤ 6 were included. Interviewer administered questionnaire was used to collect data from caregivers. Information sought included gestational age (GA), birth weight (BW), Apgar score, place of delivery and outcome. Data was analyzed using SPSS. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were done.

Results

Of the 150 neonates, 61.3% survived. Majority of the dead were out-born. The difference was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The inborn were about 1.2 times (AOR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.06–1.78) more likely to survive BA. Among low birth weights (LBWs), 73.9% died, 23.7% of normal weights and 14.3% of macrosomics died. The difference was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The normal weights were about 2 (AOR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.76–6.25) and the macrosomics about 5 times more likely to survive BA than LBWs. Regarding GA, 78.8%, 17.2% and 18.2% of the pre-terms, term and post-dates died respectively. The difference was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The term babies were about 11 (AOR = 11.27; 95% CI: 4.02–31-56) and post-dates about 9 (AOR = 8.79; 95% CI: 1.43–54.04) times more likely to survive BA than preterms. Other significant factors were degree of asphyxia (p = 0.003), and parental education (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

BW, GA, degree of asphyxia, place of delivery and parental education all predicts survival among birth asphyxiated newborns.

Analysis of recurrence after the resection of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Outcomes after recurrence of resected pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) are not well described. We aim to assess the rate and sites of recurrence, and its effect on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective chart review of patients (n = 83) who underwent surgical resection of PNETs at 2 institutions. Patients were treated from September 2002 to July 2010.

RESULTS

There were 13 (16%) recurrences. The most common site of recurrence was the liver (9 patients, 9.6%). The most common treatment of recurrences was chemotherapy (5 patients, 36%). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year disease-free survival was 90.9%, 82.7%, and 72.5%, respectively. Median recurrence-free survival was 127 months. The median follow-up for all PNET patients was 25.8 months (range, 1-140 months). The 3-year survival was 97%. The median follow-up of patients after the diagnosis of a recurrence was 13.8 months. The overall survival for those with and without recurrence was 96.3% and 100%, respectively (P = .36). The age ( P = .002) and lymph node ratio ( P < .001) were predictors of recurrence on multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Age and lymph node ratio are significant predictors of recurrence after the resection of PNETs with hepatic metastases being the most common. Survival of patients with recurrence is not significantly different from patients without recurrence.

The influence of smoking, age and stage at diagnosis on the survival after larynx, hypopharynx and oral cavity cancers in Europe: The ARCAGE study

Head and neck cancer (HNC) is a preventable malignancy that continues to cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. Using data from the ARCAGE and Rome studies, we investigated the main predictors of survival after larynx, hypopharynx and oral cavity (OC) cancers. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate overall survival, and Cox proportional models to examine the relationship between survival and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. 604 larynx, 146 hypopharynx and 460 OC cancer cases were included in this study. Over a median follow-up time of 4.6 years, nearly 50% (n = 586) of patients died. Five-year survival was 65% for larynx, 55% for OC and 35% for hypopharynx cancers. In a multivariable analysis, we observed an increased mortality risk among older (≥71 years) versus younger (≤50 years) patients with larynx/hypopharynx combined (LH) and OC cancers [HR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.09-2.38 (LH) and HR = 2.12, 95% CI 1.35-3.33 (OC)], current versus never smokers [HR = 2.67, 95% CI 1.40-5.08 (LH) and HR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.32-3.54 (OC)] and advanced versus early stage disease at diagnosis [IV versus I, HR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.78-3.79 (LH) and HR = 3.17, 95% CI 2.05-4.89 (OC)]. Survival was not associated with sex, alcohol consumption, education, oral health, p16 expression, presence of HPV infection or body mass index 2 years before cancer diagnosis. Despite advances in diagnosis and therapeutic modalities, survival after HNC remains low in Europe. In addition to the recognized prognostic effect of stage at diagnosis, smoking history and older age at diagnosis are important prognostic indicators for HNC.

Clinical and prognostic significance of changes in haemoglobin concentration during 1 year of androgen-deprivation therapy for hormone-naïve bone-metastatic prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the strength of change in haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations during 1 year of androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) as a predictor of survival in hormone-naïve patients with bone-metastatic (Stage M1b) prostate cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The patients included in this study were taken from the randomised trial (number 5) carried out by the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group (SPCG), comparing parenteral oestrogen with total androgen blockade (TAB) in hormone-naïve M1b prostate cancer. We identified 597 men where Hb measurements were made at enrolment, as well as at 3, 6 and 12 months of ADT. The time-dependent impact of Hb concentration changes on overall survival (OS) was analysed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis. The 10-year OS according to increase/decrease in Hb concentration for the three treatment periods was demonstrated using Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis of changes in Hb concentration between baseline and 3 months showed better survival in patients with a decrease in Hb concentration (hazard ratio [HR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.80) compared to those with an increase, whilst there was no difference in survival associated with a change in Hb concentration between 3 and 6 months (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.76-1.12). Contrary to the first 3 months, poorer survival was seen in patients with a decrease in Hb concentration between 6 and 12 months (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.62-0.92) compared to those with an increase.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large cohort of Scandinavian men with hormone-naïve M1b prostate cancer, an increase in Hb concentration between baseline and 3 months of ADT was associated with significantly poorer survival, whereas an increase between 6 and 12 months was associated with better survival. These findings provide new information about patterns of change in Hb concentrations during 12 months of ADT for M1b prostate cancer, and survival. Clinicians should be aware of the prognostic value of Hb concentration changes during ADT in M1b prostate cancer.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation following lung transplantation: indications and survival

BACKGROUND

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is employed to rescue patients with early graft dysfunction after lung transplantation (LTx). Rates of post-LTx ECMO and subsequent outcomes have been limited to single-center reports.

METHODS

UNOS registry was queried for LTx recipients from March 2015 to March 2016; 2,001 recipients were identified and stratified by need for post-LTx ECMO. Logistic regression was used to determine variables associated with post-LTx ECMO. Cox proportional hazards modeling identified factors associated with survival. Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank testing was employed for survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of 2,001 recipients identified, 107 required post-LTx ECMO (5.1%). Recipients requiring ECMO were younger (56 vs 60 years, p = 0.007) and had higher body mass index (27.2 vs 25.8, p = 0.012). Recipients requiring post-LTx ECMO were more likely to have required mechanical ventilation before transplant (9.3% vs 4.9%, p = 0.049) and were more likely to have required pre-transplant ECMO (15% vs 3.7%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, pre-transplant ECMO and increasing ischemic time were associated with post-LTx ECMO. Six-month survival for recipients requiring ECMO was 62.2%. On multivariable analysis, need for post-transplant dialysis was associated with mortality. Six-month survival for recipients requiring ECMO with and without dialysis was 25.8% and 86.7% (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationally representative database, ischemic time and pre-transplant ECMO and/or ventilator requirement were associated with need for post-LTx ECMO. Need for post-transplant dialysis was associated with mortality in patients requiring post-LTx ECMO. These data may permit improved prediction of graft dysfunction. Strategies to minimize renal toxicity in the perioperative phase may lead to improved early survival post-LTx.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation following lung transplantation: indications and survival

BACKGROUND

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is employed to rescue patients with early graft dysfunction after lung transplantation (LTx). Rates of post-LTx ECMO and subsequent outcomes have been limited to single-center reports.

METHODS

UNOS registry was queried for LTx recipients from March 2015 to March 2016; 2,001 recipients were identified and stratified by need for post-LTx ECMO. Logistic regression was used to determine variables associated with post-LTx ECMO. Cox proportional hazards modeling identified factors associated with survival. Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank testing was employed for survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of 2,001 recipients identified, 107 required post-LTx ECMO (5.1%). Recipients requiring ECMO were younger (56 vs 60 years, p = 0.007) and had higher body mass index (27.2 vs 25.8, p = 0.012). Recipients requiring post-LTx ECMO were more likely to have required mechanical ventilation before transplant (9.3% vs 4.9%, p = 0.049) and were more likely to have required pre-transplant ECMO (15% vs 3.7%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, pre-transplant ECMO and increasing ischemic time were associated with post-LTx ECMO. Six-month survival for recipients requiring ECMO was 62.2%. On multivariable analysis, need for post-transplant dialysis was associated with mortality. Six-month survival for recipients requiring ECMO with and without dialysis was 25.8% and 86.7% (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationally representative database, ischemic time and pre-transplant ECMO and/or ventilator requirement were associated with need for post-LTx ECMO. Need for post-transplant dialysis was associated with mortality in patients requiring post-LTx ECMO. These data may permit improved prediction of graft dysfunction. Strategies to minimize renal toxicity in the perioperative phase may lead to improved early survival post-LTx.

Clinical presentation and predictors of survival related to extent of bone metastasis in 900 prostate cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of bone metastasis on survival and quality of life (QoL) in men with hormone-naïve prostate cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included 900 patients from a randomized trial (No. 5) by the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group, comparing parenteral oestrogen with total androgen blockade. Extent of bone metastasis was categorized according to a modified Soloway score: score 1, n = 319; score 2, n = 483; and score 3, n = 98 patients. The primary outcome measurements were mean differences in QoL and overall survival.

RESULTS

QoL rating scales showed a decrease with increasing extent of bone metastasis (p < 0.001). The mean global health status decreased from 64.4 to 50.5 for Soloway score 1 and 3, respectively. Following adjustment for performance status, analgesic consumption, grade of malignancy, alkaline phosphatase, prostate-specific antigen, haemoglobin and global health status, Soloway score 2 and 3 had a 47% [hazard ratio (HR) 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-1.80] and 78% (HR 1.78 95%, CI 1.32-2.42) increased mortality, respectively, compared to Soloway score 1. Independent predictive factors of mortality were assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient grouping based on three categories of extent of bone metastasis related to performance status, haemoglobin and global health status at presentation, as independent predictors of mortality, may provide improved accuracy of prognosis.

First off-time treatment prostate-specific antigen kinetics predicts survival in intermittent androgen deprivation for prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time is relying on an exponential kinetic pattern. This pattern has never been validated in the setting of intermittent androgen deprivation (IAD). Objective is to analyze the prognostic significance for PCa of recurrent patterns in PSA kinetics in patients undergoing IAD.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on 377 patients treated with IAD. On-treatment period (ONTP) consisted of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist injections combined with oral androgen receptor antagonist. Off-treatment period (OFTP) began when PSA was lower than 4 ng/ml. ONTP resumed when PSA was higher than 20 ng/ml. PSA values of each OFTP were fitted with three basic patterns: exponential (PSA(t) = λ.e(αt)), linear (PSA(t) = a.t), and power law (PSA(t) = a.t(c)). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model analyzed predictive factors for oncologic outcomes.

RESULTS

Only 45% of the analyzed OFTPs were exponential. Linear and power law PSA kinetics represented 7.5% and 7.7%, respectively. Remaining fraction of analyzed OFTPs (40%) exhibited complex kinetics. Exponential PSA kinetics during the first OFTP was significantly associated with worse oncologic outcome. The estimated 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) was 46% for exponential versus 80% for nonexponential PSA kinetics patterns. The corresponding 10-year probability of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) was 69% and 31% for the two patterns, respectively. Limitations include retrospective design and mixed indications for IAD.

CONCLUSION

PSA kinetic fitted with exponential pattern in approximately half of the OFTPs. First OFTP exponential PSA kinetic was associated with a shorter time to CRPC and worse CSS.

Management patterns and predictors of mortality among US patients with cancer hospitalized for malignant bowel obstruction

BACKGROUND

Malignant bowel obstruction affects an estimated 3% to 15% of patients with cancer, with a mean survival of <4 weeks reported in patients with inoperable malignant bowel obstruction. In the current study, the authors assessed predictors of survival and the influence of treatment modality in US patients with cancer who were hospitalized for malignant bowel obstruction.

METHODS

All the US cancer patients hospitalized with malignant bowel obstruction in 2006 and 2010 were included. Data were obtained from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample provided by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. Malignant bowel obstruction diagnoses and treatment variables were identified using Clinical Classifications Software codes based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and Current Procedural Terminology codes. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed with a logistic model, weighted chi-square test, and a generalized linear model.

RESULTS

The authors identified 942,014 and 1,103,528 hospitalizations for malignant bowel obstruction in 2006 and 2010, respectively. Medical management, upper gastrointestinal obstruction, health insurance coverage, and obesity were found to be significantly associated with better hospital survival. Multivariate analysis also demonstrated significantly increased odds of death with male sex, advanced age, AJCC stage IV disease, multiple comorbid conditions (except acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), and weight loss. There were no significant differences with stratification based on the location and etiology of the obstruction (primary tumor vs metastatic).

CONCLUSIONS

Malignant bowel obstruction is a common cause of death in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer in the United States. The odds of death are especially high in older patients and those with concurrent medical illnesses. Lack of insurance coverage, significant weight loss, and surgical management also appear to be associated with higher mortality in this population.

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis

BACKGROUND

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months.

METHODS

Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications.