Exploring the Pattern of Early COVID-19 Transmission Caused by Population Migration Based on 14 Cities in Hubei Province, China

Background and Aim

Relevant studies show that population migration has a great impact on the early spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, it is important to explore whether there is an explicit relationship between population migration and the number of confirmed cases for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic. This paper mainly explores the impact of population migration on early COVID-19 transmission, and establishes a predictive nonlinear mathematical model to predict the number of early cases.

Methods

Data of confirmed cases were sourced from the official website of the Municipal Health Committee, and the proportions of migration from Wuhan to other cities were sourced from the Baidu data platform. The data of confirmed cases and the migration proportions of 14 cities in Hubei Province were collected, the COVID-19 cases study period was determined as 10 days based on the third quartile of the interval of the incubation period, and a non-linear mathematical model was constructed to clarify the relationship between the migration proportion and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Finally, eight typical regions were selected to verify the accuracy of the model.

Results

The daily population migration rates and the growth curves of the number of confirmed cases in the 14 cities were basically consistent, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.91. The specific mathematical expression of 14 regions is \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage[substack]{amsmath} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage[mathscr]{eucal} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \DeclareFontFamily{T1}{linotext}{} \DeclareFontShape{T1}{linotext}{m}{n} {linotext }{} \DeclareSymbolFont{linotext}{T1}{linotext}{m}{n} \DeclareSymbolFontAlphabet{\mathLINOTEXT}{linotext} \begin{document} $$y = 14.349{e^{0.085025x}} + 298.22$$ \end{document}. In each of the fourteen cities, The nonlinear exponential model structure is as follows:\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage[substack]{amsmath} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage[mathscr]{eucal} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \DeclareFontFamily{T1}{linotext}{} \DeclareFontShape{T1}{linotext}{m}{n} {linotext }{} \DeclareSymbolFont{linotext}{T1}{linotext}{m}{n} \DeclareSymbolFontAlphabet{\mathLINOTEXT}{linotext} \begin{document} $$y = a{e^{bx}} + c,a \ne 0,{\rm{b}} \ne 0$$ \end{document}. It was found that the R² values of the fitted mathematical model were greater than 0.8 in all studied regions, excluding Suizhou (p < 0.05). The established mathematical model was used to fit eight regions in China, and the correlations between the predicted and actual numbers of confirmed cases were greater than 0.9, excluding that of Hebei Province (0.82).

Conclusion

The study found that population migration has a positive and significant impact on the spread of COVID-19. Modeling COVID-19 risk may be a useful strategy for directing public health surveillance and interventions. Restricting the migration of the population is of great significance to the joint prevention and control of the pandemic worldwide.

Fish oil/lycopene microcapsules as a source of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids: a case study on spreads

BACKGROUND

The consumption of omega-3 fatty acids has many beneficial effects for human health, but the intake of foods rich in these fatty acids is not enough to achieve the recommended quantity per person and per day, and their direct addition in foods cause oxidation and unacceptable rancidity and off-flavor. Taking account of all these aspects, this study was aimed to develop stable microcapsules of fish oil (omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids) and lycopene (antioxidant) and to investigate their effect on different spreads.

RESULTS

The inclusion of different proportions of lycopene in fish oil did not show great benefits in the quality characteristics of emulsions and microcapsules. After the addition of fish oil and fish oil + lycopene microcapsules to dry-cured ham and cheese spreads, no significant differences were found in the proximal composition and oxidative stability, whereas fatty acids composition and sensory analysis were influenced. The eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids content increased with the fish oil content in both products, but it decreased significantly after storage in the cheese spreads. Addition of microcapsules did not significantly influence on quantitative-descriptive and acceptability sensory analyses in dry-cured spreads, but it negatively affected the flavor of cheese spreading creams.

CONCLUSION

There is no need to add antioxidants to improve the stability of the fish oil microcapsules in the present study, which are appropriate as eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid vehicles to enrich meat-derived spreading creams. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Margarines and Fast-Food French Fries: Low Content of trans Fatty Acids

The lipid fraction of margarines and fast food French fries, two types of foods traditionally high in trans fatty acids (TFA), is assessed. TFA data reported worldwide during the last 20 years have been gathered and show that some countries still report high TFA amounts in these products. The content of TFA was analysed in margarines (two store and four premium brands) and French-fries from fast-food restaurants (five chains). All samples were collected in Pamplona (Navarra, Spain). The margarines showed mean values of 0.68% and 0.43% (g TFA/100 g fat) for the store and premium brands, respectively. The French fries’ values ranged from 0.49% to 0.89%. All samples were lower than the 2% set by some European countries as the maximum legal content of TFA in fats, and contained less than 0.5 g/serving, so they could also be considered “trans free products”. This work confirmed that the presence of TFA is not significant in the two analysed products and contributes updated food composition tables, key tools for epidemiological and nutrition studies.

Fat composition of vegetable oil spreads and margarines in the USA in 2013: a national marketplace analysis

Worldwide, the fat composition of spreads and margarines ("spreads") has significantly changed over the past decades. Data on fat composition of US spreads are limited and outdated. This paper compares the fat composition of spreads sold in 2013 to that sold in 2002 in the USA. The fat composition of 37 spreads representing >80% of the US market sales volume was determined by standard analytical methods. Sales volume weighted averages were calculated. In 2013, a 14 g serving of spread contained on average 7.1 g fat and 0.2 g trans-fatty acids and provided 22% and 15% of the daily amounts recommended for male adults in North America of omega-3 α-linolenic acid and omega-6 linoleic acid, respectively. Our analysis of the ingredient list on the food label showed that 86% of spreads did not contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils (PHVO) in 2013. From 2002 to 2013, based on a 14 g serving, total fat and trans-fatty acid content of spreads decreased on average by 2.2 g and 1.5 g, respectively. In the same period, the overall fat composition improved as reflected by a decrease of solid fat (from 39% to 30% of total-fatty acids), and an increase of unsaturated fat (from 61% to 70% of total-fatty acids). The majority of US spreads no longer contains PHVO and can contribute to meeting dietary recommendations by providing unsaturated fat.