Observation-based global soil heterotrophic respiration indicates underestimated turnover and sequestration of soil carbon by terrestrial ecosystem models

Soil heterotrophic respiration (R_h ) refers to the flux of CO₂ released from soil to atmosphere as a result of organic matter decomposition by soil microbes and fauna. As one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle, large uncertainties still exist in the estimation of global R_h , which further limits our current understanding of carbon accumulation in soils. Here, we applied a Random Forest algorithm to create a global data set of soil R_h , by linking 761 field observations with both abiotic and biotic predictors. We estimated that global R_h was 48.8 ± 0.9 Pg C year^-1 for 1982-2018, which was 16% less than the ensemble mean (58.6 ± 9.9 Pg C year^-1 ) of 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. By integrating our observational R_h with independent soil carbon stock data sets, we obtained a global mean soil carbon turnover time of 38.3 ± 11 year. Using observation-based turnover times as a constraint, we found that terrestrial ecosystem models simulated faster carbon turnovers, leading to a 30% (74 Pg C) underestimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon accumulation for the past century, which was especially pronounced at high latitudes. This underestimation is equivalent to 45% of the total carbon emissions (164 Pg C) caused by global land-use change at the same time. Our analyses highlight the need to constrain ecosystem models using observation-based and locally adapted R_h values to obtain reliable projections of the carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems.

Carbon Source Reduction Postpones Autumn Leaf Senescence in a Widespread Deciduous Tree

The growing-season length of temperate and boreal trees has a strong effect on the global carbon cycle. Yet, a poor understanding of the drivers of phenological processes, such as autumn leaf senescence in deciduous trees, limits our capacity to estimate growing-season lengths under climate change. While temperature has been shown to be an important driver of autumn leaf senescence, carbon source-sink dynamics have been proposed as a mechanism that could help explain variation of this important process. According to the carbon sink limitation hypothesis, senescence is regulated by the interplay between plant carbon source and sink dynamics, so that senescence occurs later upon low carbon inputs (source) and earlier upon low carbon demand (sink). Here, we manipulated carbon source-sink dynamics in birch saplings (Betula pendula) to test the relevance of carbon sink limitation for autumn leaf senescence and photosynthetic decline in a widespread deciduous tree. Specifically, we conducted a gradient of leaf and bud removal treatments and monitored the effects on autumnal declines in net photosynthesis and the timing of leaf senescence. In line with the carbon sink limitation hypothesis, we observed that leaf removal tended to increase total leaf-level autumn photosynthesis and delayed the timing of senescence. Conversely, we did not observe an effect of bud removal on either photosynthesis or senescence, which was likely caused by the fact that our bud removal treatment did not considerably affect the plant carbon sink. While we cannot fully rule out that the observed effect of leaf removal was influenced by possible treatment-level differences in leaf age or soil resource availability, our results provide support for the hypothesis of carbon sink limitation as a driver of growing-season length and move the scientific field closer to narrowing the uncertainty in climate change predictions.

Altered plant carbon partitioning enhanced forest ecosystem carbon storage after 25 years of nitrogen additions

Decades of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in the northeastern USA have enhanced this globally important forest carbon (C) sink by relieving N limitation. While many N fertilization experiments found increased forest C storage, the mechanisms driving this response at the ecosystem scale remain uncertain. Following the optimal allocation theory, augmented N availability may reduce belowground C investment by trees to roots and soil symbionts. To test this prediction and its implications on soil biogeochemistry, we constructed C and N budgets for a long-term, whole-watershed N fertilization study at the Fernow Experimental Forest, WV, USA. Nitrogen fertilization increased C storage by shifting C partitioning away from belowground components and towards aboveground woody biomass production. Fertilization also reduced the C cost of N acquisition, allowing for greater C sequestration in vegetation. Despite equal fine litter inputs, the C and N stocks and C : N ratio of the upper mineral soil were greater in the fertilized watershed, likely due to reduced decomposition of plant litter. By combining aboveground and belowground data at the watershed scale, this study demonstrates how plant C allocation responses to N additions may result in greater C storage in both vegetation and soil.

Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees

Climate warming is currently advancing spring leaf-out of temperate and boreal trees, enhancing net primary productivity (NPP) of forests. However, it remains unclear whether this trend will continue, preventing for accurate projections of ecosystem functioning and climate feedbacks. Several ecophysiological mechanisms have been proposed to regulate the timing of leaf emergence in response to changing environmental cues, but the relative importance of those mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use 727,401 direct phenological observations of common European forest trees to examine the dominant controls on leaf-out. Using the emerging mechanisms, we forecast future trajectories of spring arrival and evaluate the consequences for forest carbon dynamics. By representing hypothesized relationships with autumn temperature, winter chilling, and the timing of spring onset, we accurately predicted reductions in the advance of leaf-out. There was a strong consensus between our empirical model and existing process-based models, revealing that the advance in leaf-out will not exceed 2 weeks over the rest of the century. We further estimate that, under a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario, earlier spring arrival will enhance NPP of temperate and boreal forests by ~0.2 Gt per year at the end of the century. In contrast, previous estimates based on a simple degree-day model range around 0.8 Gt. As such, the expected NPP is drastically reduced in our updated model relative to previous estimates-by a total of ~25 Gt over the rest of the century. These findings reveal important environmental constraints on the productivity of broad-leaved deciduous trees and highlight that shifting spring phenology is unlikely to slow the rate of warming by offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Terrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866-18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288-10293). There are many scientists involved, but the terrestrial fluxes that appear in the budgets are not well understood by ecologists and biogeochemists outside of that community. The purpose of this paper is to make the terrestrial fluxes of carbon in those budgets more accessible to a broader community. The GCP budget is composed of annual perturbations from pre-industrial conditions, driven by addition of carbon to the system from combustion of fossil fuels and by transfers of carbon from land to the atmosphere as a result of land use. The budget includes a term for each of the major fluxes of carbon (fossil fuels, oceans, land) as well as the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Land is represented by two terms: one resulting from direct anthropogenic effects (Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry or land management) and one resulting from indirect anthropogenic (e.g., CO₂ , climate change) and natural effects. Each of these two net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, in turn, is composed of opposing gross emissions and removals (e.g., deforestation and forest regrowth). Although the GCP budgets have focused on the two net terrestrial fluxes, they have paid little attention to the gross components, which are important for a number of reasons, including understanding the potential for land management to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and understanding the processes responsible for the sink for carbon on land. In contrast to the net fluxes of carbon, which are constrained by the global carbon budget, the gross fluxes are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate.

Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink

Measurements show large decadal variability in the rate of [Formula: see text] accumulation in the atmosphere that is not driven by [Formula: see text] emissions. The decade of the 1990s experienced enhanced carbon accumulation in the atmosphere relative to emissions, while in the 2000s, the atmospheric growth rate slowed, even though emissions grew rapidly. These variations are driven by natural sources and sinks of [Formula: see text] due to the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere. In this study, we compare three independent methods for estimating oceanic [Formula: see text] uptake and find that the ocean carbon sink could be responsible for up to 40% of the observed decadal variability in atmospheric [Formula: see text] accumulation. Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink from [Formula: see text] mapping methods and decadal ocean inverse models generally agree on the magnitude and sign of decadal variability in the ocean [Formula: see text] sink at both global and regional scales. Simulations with ocean biogeochemical models confirm that climate variability drove the observed decadal trends in ocean [Formula: see text] uptake, but also demonstrate that the sensitivity of ocean [Formula: see text] uptake to climate variability may be too weak in models. Furthermore, all estimates point toward coherent decadal variability in the oceanic and terrestrial [Formula: see text] sinks, and this variability is not well-matched by current global vegetation models. Reconciling these differences will help to constrain the sensitivity of oceanic and terrestrial [Formula: see text] uptake to climate variability and lead to improved climate projections and decadal climate predictions.

Have Synergies Between Nitrogen Deposition and Atmospheric CO2 Driven the Recent Enhancement of the Terrestrial Carbon Sink?

The terrestrial carbon sink has increased since the turn of this century at a time of increased fossil fuel burning, yet the mechanisms enhancing this sink are not fully understood. Here we assess the hypothesis that regional increases in nitrogen deposition since the early 2000s has alleviated nitrogen limitation and worked in tandem with enhanced CO2 fertilization to increase ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration, providing a causal link between the parallel increases in emissions and the global land carbon sink. We use the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to estimate the influence of changes in atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, climate, and their interactions to changes in net primary production and net biome production. We focus on two periods, 1901-2016 and 1990-2016, to estimate changes in land carbon fluxes relative to historical and contemporary baselines, respectively. We find that over the historical period, nitrogen deposition (14%) and carbon-nitrogen synergy (14%) were significant contributors to the current terrestrial carbon sink, suggesting that long-term increases in nitrogen deposition led to a substantial increase in CO2 fertilization. However, relative to the contemporary baseline, changes in nitrogen deposition and carbon-nitrogen synergy had no substantial contribution to the 21st century increase in global carbon uptake. Nonetheless, we find that increased nitrogen deposition in East Asia since the early 1990s contributed 50% to the overall increase in net biome production over this region, highlighting the importance of carbon-nitrogen interactions. Therefore, potential large-scale changes in nitrogen deposition could have a significant impact on terrestrial carbon cycling and future climate.

Inside out: efflux of carbon dioxide from leaves represents more than leaf metabolism

High concentrations of inorganic carbon in the xylem, produced from root, stem, and branch respiration, travel via the transpiration stream and eventually exit the plant through distant tissues as CO2. Unlike previous studies that focused on the efflux of CO2 from roots and woody tissues, we focus on efflux from leaves and the potential effect on leaf respiration measurements. We labeled transported inorganic carbon, spanning reported xylem concentrations, with 13C and then manipulated transpiration rates in the dark in order to vary the rates of inorganic carbon supply to cut leaves from Brassica napus and Populus deltoides. We used tunable diode laser absorbance spectroscopy to directly measure the rate of gross 13CO2 efflux, derived from inorganic carbon supplied from outside of the leaf, relative to gross 12CO2 efflux generated from leaf cells. These experiemnts showed that 13CO2 efflux was dependent upon the rate of inorganic carbon supply to the leaf and the rate of transpiration. Our data show that the gross leaf efflux of xylem-transported CO2 is likely small in the dark when rates of transpiration are low. However, gross leaf efflux of xylem-transported CO2 could approach half the rate of leaf respiration in the light when transpiration rates and branch inorganic carbon concentrations are high, irrespective of the grossly different petiole morphologies in our experiment.

Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure

Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha(-1 ) yr(-1) ) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure.