Drought, temperature, and moisture availability: understanding the drivers of isotopic decoupling in native pine species of the Nepalese Himalaya

The Himalayas experienced long-term climate changes and recent extreme weather events that affected plant growth and the physiology of tree species at high-elevation sites. This study presents the first statistically robust δ18OTR chronologies for two native pine species, Pinus roxburghii, and Pinus wallichiana, in the lower Nepalese Himalaya. The isotope chronologies exhibited 0.88‰ differences in overall mean isotope values attributed to varying elevations (460-2000 m asl). Comparative analysis of climate response using data sets from different sources and resolutions revealed the superiority of the APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) data set calibrated for the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM)-dominated region. Both species exhibited negative correlations with monsoon precipitation and positive correlations with temperature. However, during the peak monsoon season (July-August), daily resolved climate data disentangled statistically insignificant relationships, and revealed that δ18OTR is influenced by atmospheric moisture. Both congeneric species showed a decoupling between the chronologies after 1995. However, no significant change in air moisture origin and monsoon regime between the study sites was observed, indicating a consistent dominant moisture source during different monsoon seasons. Besides, we also observed the decreased inter-series correlation of both δ18OTR chronologies after 1995, with P. wallichiana experiencing a steeper decrease than P. roxburghii. The weakening correlations between and within the chronologies coincided with a regional drought during 1993-1995 in both sites, highlighting the strong regulation of local climate on the impact of regional extreme climate events. Our findings emphasise the importance of employing climate data with optimal spatial and temporal resolution for improved δ18OTR-climate relationships at the intra-annual scale while considering the influence of site-specific local environmental conditions. Assessing climate data sets with station data is vital for accurately interpreting climate change's impact on forest response and long-term climate reconstructions.

INTRAGRO: A machine learning approach to predict future growth of trees under climate change

The escalating impact of climate change on global terrestrial ecosystems demands a robust prediction of the trees' growth patterns and physiological adaptation for sustainable forestry and successful conservation efforts. Understanding these dynamics at an intra-annual resolution can offer deeper insights into tree responses under various future climate scenarios. However, the existing approaches to infer cambial or leaf phenological change are mainly focused on certain climatic zones (such as higher latitudes) or species with foliage discolouration during the fall season. In this study, we demonstrated a novel approach (INTRAGRO) to combine intra-annual circumference records generated by dendrometers coupled to the output of climate models to predict future tree growth at intra-annual resolution using a series of supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms. INTRAGRO performed well using our dataset, that is dendrometer data of P. roxburghii Sarg. from the subtropical mid-elevation belt of Nepal, with robust test statistics. Our growth prediction shows enhanced tree growth at our study site for the middle and end of the 21st century. This result is remarkable since the predicted growing season by INTRAGRO is expected to shorten due to changes in seasonal precipitation. INTRAGRO's key advantage is the opportunity to analyse changes in trees' intra-annual growth dynamics on a global scale, regardless of the investigated tree species, regional climate and geographical conditions. Such information is important to assess tree species' growth performance and physiological adaptation to growing season change under different climate scenarios.

Intra-annual density fluctuations in tree rings are proxies of air temperature across Europe

Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) are an important wood functional trait that determine trees' ability to adapt to climatic changes. Here, we use a large tree-ring database of 11 species from 89 sites across eight European countries, covering a climatic gradient from the Mediterranean to northern Europe, to analyze how climate variations drive IADF formation. We found that IADF occurrence increases nonlinearly with ring width in both gymnosperms and angiosperms and decreases with altitude and age. Recently recorded higher mean annual temperatures facilitate the formation of IADFs in almost all the studied species. Precipitation plays a significant role in inducing IADFs in species that exhibit drought tolerance capability, and a growth pattern known as bimodal growth. Our findings suggest that species with bimodal growth patterns growing in western and southern Europe will form IADFs more frequently, as an adaptation to increasing temperatures and droughts.

Trees with anisohydric behavior as main drivers of nocturnal evapotranspiration in a tropical mountain rainforest

This study addresses transpiration in a tropical evergreen mountain forest in the Ecuadorian Andes from the leaf to the stand level, with emphasis on nocturnal plant-water relations. The stand level: Evapotranspiration (ET) measured over 12 months with the Eddy-Covariance (ECov) technique proved as the major share (79%) of water received from precipitation. Irrespective of the humid climate, the vegetation transpired day and night. On average, 15.3% of the total daily ET were due to nocturnal transpiration. Short spells of drought increased daily ET, mainly by enhanced nighttime transpiration. Following leaf transpiration rather than air temperature and atmospheric water vapor deficit, ET showed its maximum already in the morning hours. The tree level: Due to the humid climate, the total water consumption of trees was generally low. Nevertheless, xylem sap flux measurements separated the investigated tree species into a group showing relatively high and another one with low sap flux rates. The leaf level: Transpiration rates of Tapirira guianensis, a member of the high-flux-rate group, were more than twice those of Ocotea aciphylla, a representative of the group showing low sap flux rates. Representatives of the Tapirira group operated at a relatively high leaf water potential but with a considerable diurnal amplitude, while the leaves of the Ocotea group showed low water potential and small diurnal fluctuations. Overall, the Tapirira group performed anisohydrically and the Ocotea group isohydrically. Grouping of the tree species by their water relations complied with the extents of the diurnal stem circumference fluctuations. Nighttime transpiration and hydrological type: In contrast to the isohydrically performing trees of the Ocotea group, the anisohydric trees showed considerable water vapour pressure deficit (VPD)-dependent nocturnal transpiration. Therefore, we conclude that nighttime ET at the forest level is mainly sourced by the tree species with anisohydric performance.

Tree-ring-based seasonal temperature reconstructions and ecological implications of recent warming on oak forest health in the Zagros Mountains, Iran

Abrupt changes in temperature have especially strong impacts on fragile ecosystems located in semi-arid regions. In this study, we analyzed tree-ring widths (TRW) of Mediterranean cypress (Cupressus sempervirens var. horizontalis) in the Zagros Mountains, Iran. Furthermore, we separately measured earlywood width (EWW) and latewood width (LWW) of Persian oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) to examine if intra-annual resolution of tree-ring parameters of Q. brantii tree rings can be used as high-resolution paleoclimate proxies. Climate-growth relationships revealed that mean monthly maximum temperatures (Tmax) are a dominant factor determining radial tree growth and negatively affect both oak and cypress in the Zagros Mountains. Accordingly, we reconstructed two different seasonal windows of past Tmax variability, namely, January-March and June-August over the periods 1860-2015 and 1560-2015, respectively. Regime shift detection identified twelve warm and nine cold significant regime shifts in our summer Tmax reconstructions. The longest hot summer period occurred in the twentieth century, and two warm regime shifts occurred in 1999 and 2008. The highest values of the warm summer regime shift index occurred in 2008, which coincided with fungal pathogen attacks and insect outbreak of the oak leaf roller moth (Tortrix viridana L.) in the Zagros oak woodlands. Interestingly, we found common warm and cold periods in historic climate variability between the summer and winter Tmax reconstructions. Warm and cold regime shifts occurred simultaneously from 1955 to 2015, and significant regional warm summer and winter regime shifts have occurred between 2008 and 2015. The winter and summer Tmax reconstructions show high spatial correlations with large areas in West Asia, North Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean region. Our results strengthen initial studies on past climate variability in Iran and contribute to an enhanced understanding of past temperature variability in West Asia.

Flood signals in tree-ring δ18O and wood anatomical parameters of Lagerstroemia speciosa: Implications for developing flood management strategies in Bangladesh

Bangladesh consists of 80% of the flood plain of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system (GBM), making the country one of the highest flood prone countries of the world. Due to the high rate of discharge of the GBM caused by the summer monsoon and the snowmelt of the Eastern Himalaya and Southern Tibetan Plateau due to climate change, Bangladesh witnessed 16 flood events over 1954-2017. We performed a multiproxy tree-ring analysis to investigate the impact of extreme flood events on tree growth, xylem anatomical parameters and oxygen isotope composition of tree-ring cellulose (δ¹⁸O_tr) in a Bangladeshi moist tropical forest and to establish relationships between water level of the regional rivers and tree-ring parameters. By using pointer year analysis and comparing the pointer years with historical flood records (a cut-off threshold of the country's flooded land area of 33.3%), we identified the three extreme flood events (hereafter called flood years) 1974, 1988, and 1998 in Bangladesh. Superposed epoch analysis revealed significant changes in Tree-ring width (TRW), total vessel area (TVA), vessel density (VD), and δ¹⁸O_tr during flood years. Flood associated hypoxic soil conditions reduced TRW up to 53% and TVA up to 28%, varying with flood events. In contrast, VD increased by 23% as a safety mechanism against flood induced hydraulic failure. Tree-ring δ¹⁸O significantly decreased during the flood years due to the amount effect in regional precipitation. Bootstrapped Pearson correlation analysis showed that wood anatomical variables encoded stronger river level signals than TRW and δ¹⁸O_tr. Among the wood anatomical parameters, VD showed a strong relationship (r = -0.58, p < 0.01) with the water level of the Manu River, a regional river of the north-eastern part of Bangladesh, indicating that VD can be used as a reliable proxy for river level reconstruction. Our analyses suggest that multiproxy tree-ring analysis is a potential tool to study tropical moist forest responses to extreme flood events and to identify suitable proxies for reconstructing hydrological characteristics of South Asian rivers.

Volume estimation models for avocado fruit

Avocado (Persea americana Mill.) is an important horticultural crop and proved to be a very profitable commercial crop for both local consumption and export. The physical characteristics of fruits are an important factor to determine the quality of fruit produced. On the other hand, estimation of fruit volume is time-consuming and impractical under field conditions. Thus, this study was conducted to devise cultivar-specific and generalized allometric models to analytically and non-destructively determine avocado fruit volume of five wildly distributed avocado cultivars. A significant relationship (P ≤ 0.01) was found between fruit diameter, length, and volume of each cultivar. Our best models (VM2 –for cultivar specific, and VM7-generalized model) has passed all the rigorous cross-validation and performance statistics tests and explained 94%, 92%, 87%, 93%, 94% and 93% of the variations in fruit volume of Ettinger, Fuerte, Hass, Nabal, Reed, and Multiple cultivars, respectively. Our finding revealed that in situations where measurements of volume would be inconvenient, or time-consuming, a reliable volume and yield estimation can be obtained using site- and cultivar-specific allometric equations. Allometric models could also play a significant role in improving data availability on avocado fruit physical appearance which is critical to assess the quality and taste of fresh products influencing the purchase decision of customers. Moreover, such information can also be used as a ripeness index to predict optimum harvest time important for planned marketing. More importantly, the models might assist horticulturists, agronomists, and physiologists to conduct further study on avocado production and productivity through agroforestry landuse system across Ethiopia.

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

Tree-ring δ18O climate signals vary among tree functional types in South Asian tropical moist forests

We present the first annually resolved and statistically reliable tree-ring δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_T) chronologies for the three South Asian tropical moist forest tree species (Chukrasia tabularis A. Juss., Toona ciliata M. Roem., and Lagerstroemia speciosa Roxb.) which differ in their shade tolerance and resistance to water stress. We found significantly higher mean δ¹⁸O_T values in light-demanding T. ciliata than in intermediate shade tolerant C. tabularis and shade tolerant L. speciosa (p < 0.001). δ¹⁸O_T in C. tabularis was mainly influenced by pre-monsoon vapor pressure deficit (VPD; r = -0.54, p < 0.01) and post monsoon maximum temperature (T_max) (r = 0.52, p < 0.01). δ¹⁸O_T in T. ciliata was strongly negatively correlated with a dry season drought index PDSI (r = -0.65, p < 0.001) and VPD (r = -0.58, p < 0.001). Pre-monsoon T_max was strongly positively linked with δ¹⁸O_T in L. speciosa (r = 0.65, p < 0.001), indicating that climatic influences on δ¹⁸O_T are species-specific and vary among tree functional types. Although there was a week correlation between local precipitation and δ¹⁸O_T in our studied species, we found a strong correlation between δ¹⁸O_T and precipitation at a larger spatial scale. Linear mixed effect models revealed that multiple factors improved model performance only in C. tabularis, yielding the best model, which combined VPD and T_max. The top models in T. ciliata and L. speciosa included only the single factors PDSI and T_max, highlighting that the way C. tabularis interacts with climate is more complex when compared with other two species. Our analyses suggest that stable oxygen isotope composition in tree rings of South Asian tropical moist forest trees are a suitable proxy of local and regional climate variability and are an important tool for understanding the physiological mechanisms associated with the global hydrological cycle.

Temporal offset between precipitation and water uptake of Mediterranean pine trees varies with elevation and season

For climate models that use paleo-environment data to predict future climate change, tree-ring isotope variations are one important archive for the reconstruction of paleo-hydrological conditions. Due to the rather complicated pathway of water, starting from precipitation until its uptake by trees and the final incorporation of its components into tree-ring cellulose, a closer inspection of seasonal variations of tree water uptake is important. In this study, branch and needle samples of two pine species (Pinus pinaster and Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) and several water compartments (precipitation, creek, soil) were sampled over a two-year period and analyzed for the temporal variations of their oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) at five sites over an elevation gradient from sea level to around 1600 m a.s.l. on the Mediterranean island of Corsica (France). A new model was established to disentangle temporal relationships of source water uptake of trees. It uses a calculation method that incorporates the two processes mostly expected to affect source water composition: mixing of waters and evaporation. The model results showed that the temporal offset from precipitation to water uptake is not constant and varies with elevation and season. Overall, seasonal source water origin was shown to be dominated by precipitation from autumn and spring. While autumn precipitation was a more important water source for trees growing at mid- (~800-1000 m a.s.l) and high-elevation (~1600 m a.s.l.) sites, trees at coastal sites mostly took up water from late winter and spring. These findings show that predicted decreases in precipitation amounts during the wet season in the Mediterranean can have strong impacts on water availability for pine trees, especially at higher elevations.

Disentangling the effects of atmospheric CO2 and climate on intrinsic water-use efficiency in South Asian tropical moist forest trees

Due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the ratio of carbon fixed by assimilation to water lost by transpiration through stomatal conductance (intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE) shows a long-term increasing trend globally. However, the drivers of short-term (inter-annual) variability in iWUE of tropical trees are poorly understood. We studied the inter-annual variability in iWUE of three South Asian tropical moist forest tree species (Chukrasia tabularis A.Juss., Toona ciliata M. Roem. and Lagerstroemia speciosa L.) derived from tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) in response to variations of environmental conditions. We found a significantly decreasing trend in carbon discrimination (Δ13C) and an increasing trend in iWUE in all the three species, with a species-specific long-term trend in intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci). Growing season temperatures were the main driver of inter-annual variability of iWUE in C. tabularis and L. speciosa, whereas previous year temperatures determined the iWUE variability in T. ciliata. Vapor pressure deficit was linked with iWUE only in C. tabularis. Differences in shade tolerance, tree stature and canopy position might have caused this species-specific variation in iWUE response to climate. Linear mixed effect modeling successfully simulated iWUE variability, explaining 41-51% of the total variance varying with species. Commonality analysis revealed that temperatures had a dominant influence on the inter-annual iWUE variability (64-77%) over precipitation (7-22%) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (3-6%). However, the long-term variations in iWUE were explicitly determined by the atmospheric CO2 increase (83-94%). Our results suggest that the elevated CO2 and concomitant global warming might have detrimental effects on gas exchange and other physiological processes in South Asian tropical moist forest trees.

A 338-year tree-ring oxygen isotope record from Thai teak captures the variations in the Asian summer monsoon system

A 338-year oxygen isotope record from teak tree-ring cellulose collected from Mae Hong Son province in northwestern Thailand was presented. The tree-ring series preserves the isotopic signal of the regional wet season rainfall and relative humidity. Tree-ring δ¹⁸O correlates strongly with regional rainfall from May to October, showing coherent variations over large areas in Southeast Asia. We reconstructed the summer monsoon season (May to October) rainfall based on a linear regression model that explained 35.2% of the actual rainfall variance. Additionally, we found that in the 19^th century, there was a remarkable drought during many years that corresponded to regional historic drought events. The signals of the June to September Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for the period between 1948 and 2009 were clearly found. Spatial correlations and spectral analyses revealed a strong impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tree-ring δ¹⁸O. However, ENSO influenced the tree-ring δ¹⁸O more strongly in the 1870-1906, 1907-1943, and 1944-1980 periods than in the 1981-2015 period, which corresponded to periods of weaker and stronger ISM intensity.

Air moisture signals in a stable oxygen isotope chronology of dwarf shrubs from the central Tibetan Plateau

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Annually resolved biological climate proxies beyond the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution limit of trees are rare. In such regions, several studies have demonstrated that annual growth rings of dwarf shrubs are suitable proxies for palaeoclimatic investigations. In High Asia, the pioneer work of Liang et al. (Liang E, Lu X, Ren P, Li X, Zhu L, Eckstein D, 2012. Annual increments of juniper dwarf shrubs above the tree line on the central Tibetan Plateau: a useful climatic proxy. Annals of Botany109: 721-728) confirmed the suitability of shrub growth-ring chronologies for palaeoclimatic research. This study presents the first sensitivity study of an annually resolved δ18O time series inferred from Wilson juniper (Juniperus pingii var. wilsonii) from the northern shoreline of lake Nam Co (Tibetan Plateau).

METHODS

Based on five individual dwarf shrub discs, a statistically reliable δ18O chronology covering the period 1957-2009 was achieved (expressed population signal = 0.80). Spearman's correlation analysis between the δ18O chronology and climate variables from different sources was applied. In a first step, the suitability of various climate data was evaluated.

KEY RESULTS

Examinations of climate-proxy relationships revealed significant negative correlations between the δ18O shrub chronology and summer season moisture variability of the previous and current year. In particular, relative humidity of the previous and current vegetation period significantly determined the proxy variability (ρ = -0.48, P < 0.01). Furthermore, the δ18O variability of the developed shrub chronology significantly coincided with a nearby tree-ring δ18O chronology of the same genus (r = 0.62, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The δ18O shrub chronology reliably recorded humidity variations in the Nam Co region. The chronology was significantly correlated with a nearby moisture-sensitive tree-ring δ18O chronology, indicating a common climate signal in the two chronologies. This climate signal was likely determined by moisture variations of the Asian summer monsoon. Local climate effects were superimposed on the supra-regional climate signature of the monsoon circulation. Opposing δ18O values between the two chronologies were interpreted as plant-physiological differences during isotopic fractionation processes.

Tree Circumference Changes and Species-Specific Growth Recovery After Extreme Dry Events in a Montane Rainforest in Southern Ecuador

Under drought conditions, even tropical rainforests might turn from carbon sinks to sources, and tree species composition might be altered by increased mortality. We monitored stem diameter variations of 40 tree individuals with stem diameters above 10 cm belonging to eleven different tree genera and three tree life forms with high-resolution dendrometers from July 2007 to November 2010 and additionally March 2015 to December 2017 in a tropical mountain rainforest in South Ecuador, a biodiversity hotspot with more than 300 different tree species belonging to different functional types. Although our study area receives around 2200 mm of annual rainfall, dry spells occur regularly during so-called "Veranillo del Niño" (VdN) periods in October-November. In climate change scenarios, droughts are expected with higher frequency and intensity as today. We selected dry intervals with a minimum of four consecutive days to examine how different tree species respond to drought stress, raising the question if some species are better adapted to a possible higher frequency and increasing duration of dry periods. We analyzed the averaged species-specific stem shrinkage rates and recovery times during and after dry periods. The two deciduous broadleaved species Cedrela montana and Handroanthus chrysanthus showed the biggest stem shrinkage of up to 2 mm after 10 consecutive dry days. A comparison of daily circumference changes over 600 consecutive days revealed different drought responses between the families concerning the percentage of days with stem shrinkage/increment, ranging from 27.5 to 72.5% for Graffenrieda emarginata to 45-55% for Podocarpus oleifolius under same climate conditions. Moreover, we found great difference of recovery times after longer-lasting (i.e., eight to ten days) VdN drought events between the two evergreen broadleaved species Vismia cavanillesiana and Tapirira guianensis. While Vismia replenished to pre-VdN stem circumference after only 5 days, Tapirira needed 52 days on average to restore its circumference. Hence, a higher frequency of droughts might increase inter-species competition and species-specific mortality and might finally alter the species composition of the ecosystem.

Long-Term Hydraulic Adjustment of Three Tropical Moist Forest Tree Species to Changing Climate

Xylem hydraulic adjustment to global climatic changes was reported from temperate, boreal, and Mediterranean tree species. Yet, the long-term hydraulic adjustment in tropical tree species has not been studied so far. Here we developed the first standard chronologies of three hydraulic trait variables for three South Asian moist forest tree species to analyze their long-term hydraulic responses to changing climate. Based on wood anatomical measurements, we calculated Hagen-Poiseuille hydraulically weighted vessel diameter (DH), potential specific hydraulic conductivity (KS), and vulnerability index (VX) and developed standard chronologies of these variables for Chukrasia tabularis, Toona ciliata, and Lagerstroemia speciosa which are different in their xylem structure, wood density, shade tolerance, growth rates, and habitat preferences. Bootstrap correlation analysis revealed that vapor pressure deficit (VPD) strongly positively influenced the xylem water transport capacity in C. tabularis, whereas T. ciliata was affected by both temperature and precipitation. The hydraulic conductivity of L. speciosa was mainly affected by temperature. Different adjustment strategies were observed among the species, probably due to the differences in life history strategies and xylem properties. No positive relationship of conductivity and radial growth was found, but a trade-off between hydraulic safety and efficiency was observed in all studied species.

Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE

Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the ¹⁴C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770–780 and 990–1000 CE. Distinct ¹⁴C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved ¹⁴C measurements are needed.

Despite their extensive use, the absolute dating of tree-ring chronologies has not hitherto been independently validated at the global scale. Here, the identification of distinct ¹⁴C excursions in 484 individual tree rings, enable the authors to confirm the dating of 44 dendrochronologies from five continents.

Do atmospheric CO2 concentration increase, climate and forest management affect iWUE of common beech? Evidences from carbon isotope analyses in tree rings

Beech is one of the most important forest tree species in Europe, hence possible adverse factors affecting its physiology and productivity can have strong ecological and economic impacts. In this context, four beech forests along a latitudinal gradient from southern Apennines to middle European lowlands were selected for chronological determinations of carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree-ring cellulose. The main objectives of this study were to assess (i) the effect of climate on the carbon signature of tree-ring cellulose (δ13C); (ii) the physiological response to recent CO2 concentration increment and to climatic variation; and (iii) the relationship between intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE, here the average long-term ratio of net photosynthesis to stomatal conductance) and growth of trees in different sites since 1950. Our results demonstrated that site climatic conditions peculiarly affect δ13C. In northern sites, a climatic control of summer precipitation and temperature on stomatal conductance was demonstrated by their opposite correlations with δ13C, negative and positive, respectively. Furthermore, an 'earliness effect' was suggested by a significant relationship between spring temperature and δ13C in the coldest sites and by a positive one between winter temperature and δ13C in the warmest ones. In all the study sites, during the maturity phase, a positive correlation between the increment of CO2 and iWUE was observed, due to an active response of trees to CO2 increment. This increment of CO2 was the main driver of the long term increasing trend of iWUE, resulting by an active response of trees to CO2 fertilization. Moreover, precipitation mostly influences positively and negatively the inter-annual variations of iWUE of the southernmost and northernmost sites, respectively. Overall, we observed a mean increment of 40% of iWUE. Moreover, the sensitivity of iWUE to the increase of CO2 was different between the northernmost and southernmost sites. Increasing iWUE was correlated to growth in the two sites during the release phase and we hypothesize a positive effect of silvicultural treatments.

Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations

The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade^-1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological factors that were not included into the growth model. The estimated lengthening of the growing season could substantially affect carbon sequestration and forest productivity on the Tibetan Plateau.

Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment

Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r = .64, p < .01) and annual (r = .68, p < .01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7 years and 1-8 years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.

Air mass origin signals in δ 18O of tree-ring cellulose revealed by back-trajectory modeling at the monsoonal Tibetan plateau

A profound consideration of stable oxygen isotope source water origins is a precondition for an unambiguous palaeoenvironmental interpretation of terrestrial δ ¹⁸O archives. To stress the influence of air mass origins on widely used δ ¹⁸O tree-ring chronologies, we conducted correlation analyses between six annually resolved δ ¹⁸O tree-ring cellulose ([Formula: see text]) chronologies and mean annual air package origins obtained from backward trajectory modeling. This novel approach has been tested for a transect at the southeastern Tibetan plateau (TP), where air masses with different isotopic composition overlap. Detailed examinations of daily precipitation amounts and monthly precipitation δ ¹⁸O values ([Formula: see text]) were conducted with the ERA Interim and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique General Circulation Model (LMDZiso) data, respectively. Particularly the southernmost study sites are influenced by a distinct amount effect. Here, air package origin [Formula: see text] relations are generally weaker in contrast to our northern located study sites. We found that tree-ring isotope signatures at dry sites with less rain days per year tend to be influenced stronger by air mass origin than tree-ring isotope values at semi-humid sites. That implies that the local hydroclimate history inferred from [Formula: see text] archives is better recorded at semi-humid sites.

Corrigendum: Earlywood and Latewood Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Variations in Two Pine Species in Southwestern China during the Recent Decades

[This corrects the article on p. 2050 in vol. 7, PMID: 28119725.].

Earlywood and Latewood Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Variations in Two Pine Species in Southwestern China during the Recent Decades

Stable isotopes in wood cellulose of tree rings provide a high-resolution record of environmental conditions, yet intra-annual analysis of carbon and oxygen isotopes and their associations with physiological responses to seasonal environmental changes are still lacking. We analyzed tree-ring stable carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotope variations in the earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) of pines from a secondary forest (Pinus kesiya) and from a natural forest (Pinus armandii) in southwestern China. There was no significant difference between δ¹³C_EW and δ¹³C_LW in P. kesiya, while δ¹³C_EW was significantly higher than δ¹³C_LW in P. armandii. For both P. kesiya and P. armandii, δ¹³C_EW was highly correlated with previous year's δ¹³C_LW, indicating a strong carbon carry-over effect for both pines. The intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) in the earlywood of P. armandii was slightly higher than that of P. kesiya, and iWUE of both pine species showed an increasing trend, but at a considerably higher rate in P. kesiya. Respective δ¹³C_EW and δ¹³C_LW series were not correlated between the two pine species and could be influenced by local environmental factors. δ¹³C_EW of P. kesiya was positively correlated with July to September monthly mean temperature (MMT), whereas δ¹³C_EW of P. armandii was positively correlated with February to May MMT. Respective δ¹⁸O_EW and δ¹⁸O_LW in P. kesiya were positively correlated with those in P. armandii, indicating a strong common climatic forcing in δ¹⁸O for both pine species. δ¹⁸O_EW of both pine species was negatively correlated with May relative humidity and δ¹⁸O_EW in P. armandii was negatively correlated with May precipitation, whereas δ¹⁸O_LW in both pine species was negatively correlated with precipitation during autumn months, showing a high potential for climate reconstruction. Our results reveal slightly higher iWUE in natural forest pine species than in secondary forest pine species, and separating earlywood and latewood of for δ¹⁸O analyses could provide seasonally distinct climate signals in southwestern China.

Structure and Function of Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations: Mind the Gaps

Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical, and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic and external factors, and their interaction during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1) the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2) the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3) the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events.

Stable carbon isotope labeling reveals different carry-over effects between functional types of tropical trees in an Ethiopian mountain forest

We present an intra-annual stable carbon isotope (δ(13)C) study based on a labeling experiment to illustrate differences in temporal patterns of recent carbon allocation to wood structures of two functional types of trees, Podocarpus falcatus (a late-successional evergreen conifer) and Croton macrostachyus (a deciduous broadleaved pioneer tree), in a tropical mountain forest in Ethiopia. Dendrometer data, wood anatomical thin sections, and intra-annual δ(13)C analyses were applied. Isotope data revealed a clear annual growth pattern in both studied species. For P. falcatus, it was possible to synchronize annual δ(13) C peaks, wood anatomical structures and monthly precipitation patterns. The labeling signature was evident for three consecutive years. For C. macrostachyus, isotope data illustrate a rapid decline of the labeling signal within half a year. Our δ(13)C labeling study indicates a distinct difference in carryover effects between trees of different functional types. A proportion of the labeled δ(13)C is stored in reserves of wood parenchyma for up to 3 yr in P. falcatus. By contrast, C. macrostachyus shows a high turnover of assimilates and a carbon carryover effect is only detectable in the subsequent year.

Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10-1900

Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have, however, often not been quantitatively assessed. Here, using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10-1900, we demonstrate that war frequency, price of rice, locust plague, drought frequency, flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies, and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods, resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China.

Cerec3D endocrowns--two-year clinical examination of CAD/CAM crowns for restoring endodontically treated molars

The present clinical study evaluates the clinical prognosis of Cerec3D endocrowns over an observation period of two years. Twenty Cerec endocrowns (VITABLOCS Mark II, Vita Zahnfabirk, Bad Säckingen, Germany) were placed with PanaviaTM F 2.0, a dual-curing bonding composite. The control examinations took place semi-annually and the restorations were evaluated based on modified US Public Health Service criteria (USPHS). The two-year survival rate of the Cerec endocrowns was 90%. Two out of 20 endocrowns were assessed as failure because of fractures. The first fracture was observed after 12 months and the second fracture after 18 months. No recurrent caries was diagnosed during the entire examination period. Slight percussion symptoms were found on three restorations in the first weeks after placement. The results of the present study show that good esthetic and functional results similar to those of other restoration types can be achieved with endocrowns and that CAD/CAM-fabricated crowns represent a very promising treatment alternative for endodontically treated molars.

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957-1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160-170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160-170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects.