Infestation rates of lice Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus elongatus on Atlantic salmon in fixed and towed sentinel cages

Sea lice are a key limitation to sustainable salmon aquaculture, and effective monitoring strategies are critical for the management of these parasites. Sentinel cages are an established means of assessing infestation pressure at fixed locations, but as smolts move through systems they will be exposed to varying lice densities. As a means of assessing infestation pressure along trajectories, we describe the development and application of towed sentinel cages (TSCs) in a Scottish sea loch containing salmonid aquaculture. Trial deployments took place over 3 yr (2016-2018), and levels of sea lice infestation were compared between methodologies. Oceanographic data was collected alongside TSCs to put the results into the environmental context that smolts and sea lice experienced during the tows. The sea lice infestation rates found from TSCs were comparable to those on contemporaneously deployed fixed sentinel cages. Thus, due to their practicability and consistency with other surveillance methods, TSCs could be used to improve the assessment of exposure risk along wild salmonid smolt migration trajectories, where these are known.

Modelling parasite impacts of aquaculture on wild fish: The case of the salmon louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on out-migrating wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolt

For effective wild salmon (Salmo salar) conservation in areas where aquaculture of salmon is practiced it is necessary to identify where the key parasite, the salmon louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis), will have an impact on these wild salmon. A simple modelling structure is implemented in a sample system in Scotland for assessing interaction between wild salmon and salmon lice from salmon farms. The model is demonstrated for case studies of smolt sizes and migration routes through salmon lice concentration fields derived for average farm loads from 2018 to 2020. Lice modelling describes production and distribution of lice, infection rates on hosts and biological development of lice. The modelling framework allows explicit assessment of the relationships between lice production, lice concentration and impact on hosts as they grow and migrate. Lice distribution in the environment is determined using a kernel model, which summarises mixing in a complex hydrodynamic system. Smolt modelling describes their initial size, growth and migration pathways. This is illustrated for a set of parameter values applied to 10 cm, 12.5 cm and 15 cm salmon smolts. We found that salmon lice impact depends on initial size of host, smaller smolts will be more susceptible, while larger smolts are less impacted by a given number of lice encounters and migrate more rapidly. This modelling framework can be adapted to allow evaluation of threshold concentrations of lice in the water that should not be exceeded to avoid impacts on smolt populations.

A preliminary assessment of indirect impacts on aquaculture species health and welfare in Scotland during COVID-19 lockdown

COVID-19 led to sudden changes in human activities, mainly due to restrictive measures required to supress the virus. We assess the preliminary evidence for impacts on animal health and welfare in Scottish aquaculture, a key economic activity in remoter areas of the country. We summarise the industry structure, explore pathways of vulnerability to aquatic animal disease within a One Health framework that may be accentuated by impacts of COVID-19, and use basic routine data collection on the key welfare indicators of salmon mortality and parasitic sea lice counts. The indicators were published on schedule and provide no evidence of gross impact on health and welfare, at least for salmon, during the period of intensive lockdown restrictions in Scotland. Longer term effects cannot be ruled out and we do not assess impacts on the economic or social aspects of aquaculture production.

Modelling temperature and fish biomass data to predict annual Scottish farmed salmon, Salmo salar L., losses: Development of an early warning tool

Losses due to mortality are a serious economic drain on Scottish salmon aquaculture and are a limitation to its sustainable growth. Understanding the changes in losses, and associated drivers, are required to identify risks to sustainable aquaculture. Data on losses were obtained from two open source data sets: monthly losses of biomass 2003-2018 and losses of salmon over production cycles (numbers input minus output harvest) 2002-2016. Monthly loss rates increased, accelerating after 2010, while losses per production cycle displayed no trend. Two modelling frameworks were investigated to produce an early warning tool for managers about potential increases in losses. Both linear regression and beta regression showed that monthly losses related to biomass and minimum winter air temperatures with high precision and low bias. These relationships apply at both the national and regional levels where the beta regression best fit model explain 82 % and 69 % of variation in mortality, some regional differences apply, particularly for the Northern Isles. The lack of trend in losses per production cycle may have been due to shorter production cycles as more salmon were harvested earlier, and possibly increasing losses of larger salmon (which affects biomass but not numbers lost). In the long-term, the models predict that milder winters and increased biomass will be associated with increased mortality, which will need to be managed. In the short-term, given relatively little year-to-year variation in biomass, minimum winter temperature is a powerful early warning of the likely extent of losses in the Scottish salmon farming industry.

A GIS-based tool for an integrated assessment of spatial planning trade-offs with aquaculture

The increasing demand for protein from aquaculture will trigger a global expansion of the sector in coastal and offshore waters. While contributing to food security, potential conflicts with other traditional activities such as fisheries or tourism are inevitable, thus calling for decision-support tools to assess aquaculture planning scenarios in a multi-use context. Here we introduce the AquaSpace tool, one of the first Geographic Information System (GIS)-based planning tools empowering an integrated assessment and mapping of 30 indicators reflecting economic, environmental, inter-sectorial and socio-cultural risks and opportunities for proposed aquaculture systems in a marine environment. A bottom-up process consulting more than 350 stakeholders from 10 countries across southern and northern Europe enabled the direct consideration of stakeholder needs when developing the GIS AddIn. The AquaSpace tool is an open source product and builds in the prospective use of open source datasets at a European scale, hence aiming to improve reproducibility and collaboration in aquaculture science and research. Tool outputs comprise detailed reports and graphics allowing key stakeholders such as planners or licensing authorities to evaluate and communicate alternative planning scenarios and to take more informed decisions. With the help of the German North Sea case study we demonstrate here the tool application at multiple spatial scales with different aquaculture systems and under a range of space-related development constraints. The computation of these aquaculture planning scenarios and the assessment of their trade-offs showed that it is entirely possible to identify aquaculture sites, that correspondent to multifarious potential challenges, for instance by a low conflict potential, a low risk of disease spread, a comparable high economic profit and a low impact on touristic attractions. We believe that a transparent visualisation of risks and opportunities of aquaculture planning scenarios helps an effective Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) process, supports the licensing process and simplifies investments.

A historical review of the key bacterial and viral pathogens of Scottish wild fish

Thousands of Scottish wild fish were screened for pathogens by Marine Scotland Science. A systematic review of published and unpublished data on six key pathogens (Renibacterium salmoninarum, Aeromonas salmonicida, IPNV, ISAV, SAV and VHSV) found in Scottish wild and farmed fish was undertaken. Despite many reported cases in farmed fish, there was a limited number of positive samples from Scottish wild fish, however, there was evidence for interactions between wild and farmed fish. A slightly elevated IPNV prevalence was reported in wild marine fish caught close to Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., farms that had undergone clinical IPN. Salmonid alphavirus was isolated from wild marine fish caught near Atlantic salmon farms with a SAV infection history. Isolations of VHSV were made from cleaner wrasse (Labridae) used on Scottish Atlantic salmon farms and VHSV was detected in local wild marine fish. However, these pathogens have been detected in wild marine fish caught remotely from aquaculture sites. These data suggest that despite the large number of samples taken, there is limited evidence for clinical disease in wild fish due to these pathogens (although BKD and furunculosis historically occurred) and they are likely to have had a minimal impact on Scottish wild fish.

Simulated environmental transport distances of Lepeophtheirus salmonis in Loch Linnhe, Scotland, for informing aquaculture area management structures

In the majority of salmon farming countries, production occurs in zones where practices are coordinated to manage disease agents such as Lepeophtheirus salmonis. To inform the structure of zones in specific systems, models have been developed accounting for parasite biology and system hydrodynamics. These models provide individual system farm relationships, and as such, it may be beneficial to produce more generalized principles for informing structures. Here, we use six different forcing scenarios to provide simulations from a previously described model of the Loch Linnhe system, Scotland, to assess the maximum dispersal distance of lice particles released from 12 sites transported over 19 day. Results indicate that the median distance travelled is 6.1 km from release site with <2.5% transported beyond 15 km, which occurs from particles originating from half of the release sites, with an absolute simulated distance of 36 km observed. This provides information suggesting that the disease management areas developed for infectious salmon anaemia control may also have properties appropriate for salmon lice management in Scottish coastal waters. Additionally, general numerical descriptors of the simulated relative lice abundance reduction with increased distance from release location are proposed.

Distribution of Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis Virus (IPNV) Based on Surveillance Programs in Freshwater Trout Farms of Mexico

Diagnostic testing was performed between 2000 and 2012 to determine the distribution of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) in the main states of the Mexican Republic with freshwater Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum) farms. This virus was positively identified from Rainbow Trout farms in seven of the eight states assessed. Due to nonnormal data distribution, a logistic regression model was applied for statistical analysis, the results of which indicated that virus prevalence was variable between states, with moderate but significant differences. Regarding the time periods evaluated, IPNV prevalence was higher during the first years of the study. The susceptible, infected, removed model was used to examine this phenomenon, which indicated that the decreased prevalence during the latter years of the study could be associated with a real elimination of the infection. The information of the cases analyzed also suggests a relationship with the irregularity in the submission of samples to the laboratory and emphasizes other factors that have contributed to the transmission of IPNV throughout the country. Received November 10, 2014; accepted December 5, 2015.

Using the H-index to assess disease priorities for salmon aquaculture

Atlantic salmon's (Salmo salar) annual aquaculture production exceeds 2M tonnes globally, and for the UK forms the largest single food export. However, aquaculture production is negatively affected by a range of different diseases and parasites. Effort to control pathogens should be focused on those which are most "important" to aquaculture. It is difficult to specify what makes a pathogen important; this is particularly true in the aquatic sector where data capture systems are less developed than for human or terrestrial animal diseases. Mortality levels might be one indicator, but these can cause a range of different problems such as persistent endemic losses, occasional large epidemics or control/treatment costs. Economic and multi-criteria decision methods can incorporate this range of impacts, however these have not been consistently applied to aquaculture and the quantity and quality of data required is large, so their potential for comparing aquatic pathogens is currently limited. A method that has been developed and applied to both human and terrestrial animal diseases is the analysis of published scientific literature using the H-index method. We applied this method to salmon pathogens using Web of Science searches for 23 pathogens. The top 3 H-indices were obtained for: sea lice, furunculosis, and infectious salmon anaemia; post 2000, Amoebic Gill Disease (AGD) replaced furunculosis. The number of publications per year describing bacterial disease declined significantly, while those for viruses and sea lice increased significantly. This reflects effective bacterial control by vaccination, while problems related to viruses and sea lice have increased. H-indices by country reflected different national concerns (e.g. AGD ranked top for Australia). Averaged national H-indices for salmon diseases tend to increase with log of salmon production; countries with H-Indices significantly below the trend line have suffered particularly large disease losses. The H-index method, supported by other literature analyses, is consistent with the nature and history of salmon diseases and so provides a useful quantitative measure for comparing different diseases in the absence of other measures.

Increased frequency and changed methods in the treatment of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) in Scottish salmon farms 2005-2011

BACKGROUND

The sea louse is the most economically and environmentally serious ectoparasite of marine salmonids. Sea lice have been largely controlled by treatment with a variety of medicines. In order to understand the sustainability of medicine usage, an analysis of sea louse treatment data has been carried out for all Scottish salmon farms from 2005 to 2011.

RESULTS

Overall, there was an increase from 0.156 to 0.282 treatments month(-1) ; treatments could involve one or multiple agents. This increase was mostly in bath treatments (cypermethrin in 2007, largely replaced by deltamethrin and azamethiphos in 2008). Treatments using in-feed treatments (emamectin benzoate and teflubenzuron) increased only slowly. Treatments involving more than one medicine in a single month also increased, as did the probability of follow-up treatments. Treatments were seasonal, with peaks of in-feed treatments in March and August and bath treatments more frequent between August and December.

CONCLUSION

Frequency of sea louse treatment increased substantially, with an increase in multiagent and follow-up treatments. This increase in treatment activity is expensive to the industry and increases exposure of the neighbouring environment. This indicates that earlier louse control practices were not sustainable and so adapted.

Factors affecting variation in mortality of marine Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in Scotland

Databases of site production have an important role to play in the investigation and understanding of diseases, since they store valuable amounts of disease and management data. Diseases pose an important constraint to economic expansion of aquaculture. They are dependent on the complex interacting factors of pathogen, environment, and host, and the causes of death can be related to nutritional, environmental, and genetic factors of the host or infectious agents. We examined the drivers of mortality from a single site-production database, which represented one-third of Scottish farmed salmon Salmo salar L. production in 2005, to determine whether mortality 'benchmarking' data could be generalised across sites and production cycles. We show that farm mortality records play an important role in studying mortality losses and identifying of management problems in production. We found that mortalities varied across the months of the year and with the time of year of initial stocking. Production cycles that started in the third quarter of the year had the highest mortality overall. Furthermore, we found site-to-site variation in mortality that may have been caused by either random occurrence of epidemics and environmental events or other local effects.

Development and assessment of a biophysical dispersal model for sea lice

Salmon aquaculture in Scotland continues to increase; however, one of the potential limitations to its further sustainable growth is the ectoparasitic sea louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis. The industry in Scotland undertakes coordinated management procedures to control the levels of sea lice on farms in designated production areas. We developed a biophysical sea lice dispersal model for Loch Linnhe, one of the largest fjords on the west coast of Scotland, to provide further information to help establish more effective farm management areas. We successfully extend modelling principles previously applied to a small Scottish fjordic system. Modelling scenarios demonstrate heterogeneity in the distribution of sea lice within the system and simulations, suggesting that lice could be transmitted up to 30 km. The scenarios are assessed by comparing model predictions against lice sampled by both planktonic trawls and settlement on sentinel caged fish. The model predicts the ranked abundance of both planktonic and settled lice assuming that the lice input to the system is relative to host biomass. Data collection is ongoing for undertaking and assessing additional scenarios.

A comparison of modelling approaches to assess the transmission of pathogens between Scottish fish farms: the role of hydrodynamics and site biomass

Scotland is the largest Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) producer in the EU with an output of over 150,000 t, contributing over £500 million annually towards the economy. Production continues to increase, predominantly due to the increase in output per farm and reduction in losses due to infectious diseases. Farms are grouped within disease management areas whose boundaries are defined by where the closest pair of farms is separated by more than twice the tidal excursion distance (TE) Tidal excursion is defined as 7.2 km in mainland Scotland, or 3.6 km in the Shetland Islands). The majority of salmon farms are located within relatively sheltered inshore areas where non-tidal advective current speed is minimal. However there is an aspiration for offshore production where it might be possible to increase stocking levels and where current speeds will be greater so TE models could break down. Separation distances whereby farms would avoid infection risk were obtained using an analytical, discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model coupled with a hydrodynamic transport expression representing transmission of pathogenic agents between fish farms. The model incorporated transmission, expression and recovery parameters as well as pathogen shedding and decay. The simplified hydrodynamic model incorporated residual advection, tidal advection and turbulent diffusion elements. The obtained separation distances were compared to a computationally intensive, numerical model and were demonstrated to be comparable, although the analytical model underestimated the variation within the transmission distances. Applying characteristics for a robust pathogen, infectious pancreatic necrosis virus type (IPNV-type), and less robust pathogens such as infectious salmon anaemia virus type (ISAV-type) and Aeromonas salmonicida type (AS-type) pathogens, it was possible to obtain separation distances whereby farms avoided infection. Simulation outputs indicated that separation distances should increase to avoid disease as farm size and current speed increase. The more conserved IPNV-type pathogen required separation distances of hundreds of kilometres, AS-type required tens of kilometres, whilst the distances for ISAV-type were within the scale of the current DMAs, that were developed for ISAV control. However, should production be moved to areas of faster moving currents and increased farm production the current disease management area principles might need readdressing.

Modelling management strategies for a disease including undetected sub-clinical infection: bacterial kidney disease in Scottish salmon and trout farms

Disease is a major constraint on animal production and welfare in agriculture and aquaculture. Movement of animals between farms is one of the most significant routes of disease transmission and is particularly hard to control for pathogens with subclinical infection. Renibacterium salmoninarum causes bacterial kidney disease (BKD) in salmonid fish, but infection is often sub-clinical and may go undetected with major potential implications for disease control programmes. A Susceptible-Infected model of R. salmoninarum in Scottish aquaculture has been developed that subdivides the infected phase between known and undetected sub-clinically infected farms and diseased farms whose status is assumed to be known. Farms officially known to be infected are subject to movement controls restricting spread of infection. Model results are sensitive to prevalence of undetected infection, which is unknown. However, the modelling suggests that controls that reduce BKD prevalence include improve biosecurity on farms, including those not known to be infected, and improved detection of infection. Culling appears of little value for BKD control. BKD prevalence for rainbow trout farms is less sensitive to controls than it is for Atlantic salmon farms and so different management strategies may be required for the sectors.

Seasonality and heterogeneity of live fish movements in Scottish fish farms

Movement of live animals is a key contributor to disease spread. Farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, rainbow trout Onchorynchus mykiss and brown/sea trout Salmo trutta are initially raised in freshwater (FW) farms; all the salmon and some of the trout are subsequently moved to seawater (SW) farms. Frequently, fish are moved between farms during their FW stage and sometimes during their SW stage. Seasonality and differences in contact patterns across production phases have been shown to influence the course of an epidemic in livestock; however, these parameters have not been included in previous network models studying disease transmission in salmonids. In Scotland, farmers are required to register fish movements onto and off their farms; these records were used in the present study to investigate seasonality and heterogeneity of movements for each production phase separately for farmed salmon, rainbow trout and brown/sea trout. Salmon FW-FW and FW-SW movements showed a higher degree of heterogeneity in number of contacts and different seasonal patterns compared with SW-SW movements. FW-FW movements peaked from May to July and FW-SW movements peaked from March to April and from October to November. Salmon SW-SW movements occurred more consistently over the year and showed fewer connections and number of repeated connections between farms. Therefore, the salmon SW-SW network might be treated as homogeneous regarding the number of connections between farms and without seasonality. However, seasonality and production phase should be included in simulation models concerning FW-FW and FW-SW movements specifically. The number of rainbow trout FW-FW and brown/sea trout FW-FW movements were different from random. However, movements from other production phases were too low to discern a seasonal pattern or differences in contact pattern.

The effectiveness of fallowing strategies in disease control in salmon aquaculture assessed with an SIS model

Salmon production is an important industry in Scotland, with an estimated retail value >£1 billion. However, this salmon industry can be threatened by the invasion and spread of diseases. To reduce this risk, the industry is divided into management areas that are physically separated from each other. Pathogens can spread between farms by local processes such as water movement or by long-distance processes such as live fish movements. Here, network modelling was used to investigate the importance of transmission routes at these two scales. We used different disease transmission rates (β), where infected farms had the probability of 0.10, 0.25 or 0.50 per month to infect each contacted farm. Interacting farms were modelled in such a way that neighbours within a management area could infect each other, resulting in two contacts per farm per month. In addition, non-local transmission occurred at random. Salmon are input to marine sites where they are raised to harvest size, the site is then fallowed; in the model the effects of different fallowing strategies (synchronised, partial synchronised and unsynchronised fallowing at the management area level) on the emergence of diseases were investigated. Synchronised fallowing was highly effective at eradicating epidemics when transmission rate is low (β=0.10) even when long distance contacts were fairly common (up to 1.5farm(-1)month(-1)). However for higher transmission rates, long distance contacts have to be kept at much lower levels (0.15contactsmonth(-1) where β=0.25) when synchronised fallowing was applied. If fallowing was partially synchronised or unsynchronised then low rates of long-distance contact are required (0.75 or 0.15farm(-1)month(-1)) even if β=0.10. These results demonstrate the potential benefits of having epidemiologically isolated management areas and applying synchronised fallowing.

Epidemiological investigation into the re-emergence and control of an outbreak of infectious salmon anaemia in the Shetland Islands, Scotland

Infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) is an orthomyxoviral disease, primarily affecting marine-phase farmed Atlantic salmon, which can result in high levels of mortality. ISA first emerged in Norway in the 1980s and subsequently has occurred in Canada, the USA, the Faeroe Islands and Chile. An outbreak occurred in Scotland in 1998-1999, but was eradicated at a cost of over pounds sterling 20M. The epidemiology of a new outbreak of ISA in the Scottish Shetland Islands during 2008-2009 is described. Six sites have been confirmed ISA-positive. Spread of the virus via transport of fish between marine sites, harvest vessels, smolts and wild fish appears to have been of little or no importance, with spread primarily associated with marine water currents. The use of management areas by Marine Scotland to control the event appears to have been effective in restricting spread to a small area. This localised outbreak contrasts with the 1998-1999 outbreak that spread over a wide geographic area with transported fish and harvest vessels. The development and application of industry codes of good practice, good husbandry and biosecurity practices, limited marine site-to-site movement of live fish and improved disinfection of vessels and processing plant waste that occurred subsequent to the 1998-1999 outbreak may explain the localised spread of infection in 2008-2009. Depopulation of confirmed sites has been achieved within 7 wk (mean = 3.7 wk); however, it is likely that subclinical infection persisted undetected for months on at least 1 site. The origin of the 2008-2009 outbreak remains unknown. Potential sources include evolution from a local reservoir of infection or importation. Synchronous fallowing of management areas, with good husbandry and biosecurity, reduces the risk of ISA recurring. Movement of fish between sites in different management areas represents the greatest risk of regional-scale spread, should this occur.

An experimental investigation on aspects of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) infection dynamics in seawater Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L

This study investigated infection dynamics of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) by conducting two experiments to examine minimum infective dose and viral shedding of ISAV. In terms of minimum infective dose, the high variability between replicate tanks and the relatively slow spread of infection through the population at 1 x 10(1) TCID(50) mL(-1) indicated this dose is approaching the minimum infective dose for ISAV in seawater salmon populations. A novel qPCR assay incorporating an influenza virus control standard with each seawater sample was developed that enabled the quantity of ISAV shed from infected populations to be estimated in values equivalent to viral titres. Viral shedding was first detected at 7 days post-challenge (5.8 x 10(-2) TCID(50) mL(-1)kg(-1)) and rose to levels above the minimum infective dose (4.2 x 10(1) TCID(50) mL(-1)kg(-1)) on day 11 post-challenge, 2 days before mortalities in ISAV inoculated fish started. These results clearly demonstrate that a large viral shedding event occurs before death. Viral titres peaked at 7.0 x 10(1) TCID(50) mL(-1)kg(-1) 15 days post-infection. These data provide important information relevant to the management of ISA.

Modelling sea lice dispersion under varying environmental forcing in a Scottish sea loch

The spread of infectious larval sea lice, Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Krøyer, 1838), between wild salmonids and farmed Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, remains a contentious area of uncertainty. However, as laboratory and field experiments increase our knowledge of sea lice behaviour under environmental forcing, numerical modelling tools can be used to predict the spread of infectious sea louse larvae from a point source. A three-dimensional numerical model has been developed and recently validated within Loch Torridon, a fjordic sea loch on the west coast of Scotland. Output from the numerical model is used to drive a particle tracking model which follows statistical representations of sea lice through the planktonic stages of a louse life cycle. By including maturation and mortality, the models can be used to predict the dispersion and transport of infectious sea lice from a point source and can be used to produce maps of infectivity under varying environmental conditions. Results highlight the importance of the wind-driven circulation for larval lice transport and suggest that local environmental conditions have considerable impact on the probability of sea lice infection spreading between wild and farmed fish populations.

Estimation of infectious dose and viral shedding rates for infectious pancreatic necrosis virus in Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., post-smolts

Infectious dose and shedding rates are important parameters to estimate in order to understand the transmission of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV). Bath challenge of Atlantic salmon post-smolts was selected as the route of experimental infection as this mimics a major natural route of exposure to IPNV infection. Doses ranging from 10(2) to 10(-4) 50% end-point tissue culture infectious dose (TCID(50)) mL(-1) sea water were used to estimate the minimum infectious dose for a Scottish isolate of IPNV. The minimum dose required to induce infection in Atlantic salmon post-smolts was <10(-1) TCID(50) mL(-1) by bath immersion (4 h at 10 degrees C). The peak shedding rate for IPNV following intraperitoneal challenge using post-smolts was estimated to be 6.8 x 10(3) TCID(50) h(-1) kg(-1) and occurred 11 days post-challenge. This information may be incorporated into mathematical models to increase the understanding of the dispersal of IPNV from marine salmon sites.

Using simple models to review the application and implications of different approaches used to simulate transmission of pathogens among aquatic animals

Disease is an important issue affecting aquatic animal populations. Aquatic pathogens may be transmitted in ways that could result in qualitatively different impacts to those of terrestrial diseases. I analyse simple SIR epidemic models with different functions to describe transmission. Four forms of transmission are applied: density-dependent, density-independent, non-linear density-dependent and constant infection pressure; the first two are similar to terrestrial systems, the second two are based on specifically aquatic modes of transmission. Observed diseases and existing models are reviewed in terms of these simple forms. The significance of mode of transmission to host populations, to strategies to prevent or control diseases, and to wild-farm interactions are analysed. Different diseases are simulated by different transmission models, for example furunculosis depends on host density, while spread of phocine distemper virus is density-independent, and sea lice infestation pressure may result from open transmission processes that are not dependent on local infested hosts. Appropriate transmission model may also depend on the scale of interest (inter- or intra-population). These different models result in very different responses to intervention strategies, for example culling may be effective for controlling density-dependent disease but may be counter-productive when pathogens depend on open recruitment. It is therefore important for management that appropriate models (whether existing or novel) be selected and this paper aims to provide a basic framework for cataloguing and management of aquatic diseases.

Existing and potential use of models in the control and prevention of disease emergencies affecting aquatic animals

Models are tools that aid managers to make decisions in a transparent manner. Models are implicitly used to devise any management plan, but scientific modelling makes the approach explicit and transparent. Simple models are often more useful than complex models, especially when time and data are short--as in many emergency situations. Four areas in which modelling can help aquatic animal health managers to control or prevent disease emergencies are identified, and their application reviewed. These areas are: models of factors behind disease outbreaks; models for the design of efficient surveillance; models of disease spread (subdivided into Susceptible-Infected-Removed [SIR] models, coupled hydrodynamic-particle transport models and network models); and models to evaluate the consequences of disease outbreaks. Import risk analysis and SIR modelling have been applied fairly extensively; risk-based surveillance is likely to be a driver for increased modelling effort in the near future.

Distribution of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) in wild marine fish from Scottish waters with respect to clinically infected aquaculture sites producing Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L

This study represents the first large-scale investigation of IPNV in Scottish wild marine fish. Kidney samples were taken from 30 627 fish comprising 37 species and 45 isolations were made from nine different species, illustrating these as reservoirs of IPNV in Scottish waters. The estimated prevalence of IPNV in the Scottish marine environment was low at 0.15% (90% confidence intervals, (CI) of 0.11-0.19%). This was significantly greater in fish caught less than 5.0 km from IPN-positive fish farms in Shetland, at 0.58% (90% CI of 0.45-0.77%). This prevalence persisted and did not significantly decrease over the 16-month period of study. The estimated prevalence of IPNV for each positive species was less than 1% with the statistically non-significant exceptions of flounder, Platichthys flesus (L.), at 12.5% (90% CI of 0.64-47.06%) and saithe, Pollachius virens (L.), at 1.11% (90% CI of 0.49-2.19%). The 45 isolates were titrated and all but two were below the detection limit of the test (<55 PFU g(-1)). Titres of 3.8 x 10(2) PFU g(-1) and 2.8 x 10(1) PFU g(-1) were calculated from common dab, Limanda limanda (L.), and saithe, respectively. This study provides evidence that clinical outbreaks of IPN in farmed Atlantic salmon may cause a localized small increase in the prevalence of IPNV in wild marine fish.

The application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health management

Risk analysis has only been regularly used in the management of aquatic animal health in recent years. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) stimulated the application of risk analysis to investigate disease risks associated with international trade (import risk analysis-IRA). A majority (9 of 17) of the risk analyses reviewed were IRA. The other major focus has been the parasite of Atlantic salmon--Gyrodactylus salaris. Six studies investigated the spread of this parasite, between countries, rivers and from farmed to wild stocks, and clearly demonstrated that risk analysis can support aquatic animal health policy development, from international trade and biosecurity to disease interaction between wild and farmed stocks. Other applications of risk analysis included the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens and disease emergence in aquaculture. The Covello-Merkhofer, risk analysis model was most commonly used and appears to be a flexible tool not only for IRA but also the investigation of disease spread in other contexts. The limitations of the identified risk assessments were discussed. A majority were qualitative, partly due to the lack of data for quantitative analysis, and this, it can be argued, constrained their usefulness for trade purposes (i.e. setting appropriate sanitary measures); in other instances, a qualitative result was found to be adequate for decision making. A lack of information about the disease hazards of the large number of fish species traded is likely to constrain quantitative analysis for a number of years. The consequence assessment element of a risk analysis was most likely to be omitted, or limited in scope and depth, rarely extending beyond examining the evidence of susceptibility of farmed and wild species to the identified hazard. The reasons for this are discussed and recommendations made to develop guidelines for a consistent, systematic and multi-disciplinary approach to consequence assessment. Risk analysis has improved decision making in aquatic animal health management by providing a transparent method for using the available scientific information. The lack of data is the main constraint to the application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health. The identification of critical parameters is an important output from risk analysis models which should be used to prioritise research.

Modelling for disease preparedness and response

Modelling is a useful tool for the understanding and hence, potentially, control of disease. In an emergency situation, obtaining data to validate detailed models may be difficult. However, modelling can be useful in aiding the management of disease, if the objectives are not too ambitious. For example, import risk analysis can use models to minimise the risk of outbreaks. Modelling can also be used to maximise the power of surveillance data to ensure that any outbreak is detected as rapidly as possible. Methods of modelling spread of disease, and measures to prevent this, including SIR-style epidemiological models, models of disease control zones and contact network models can be used to identify and minimise the potential scale of an epidemic. Finally, economic and ecological models can be used to assess the impact of outbreaks. A range of simple models is likely to be of more use than a single comprehensive model.

Persistence of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) in Scottish salmon (Salmo salar L.) farms

Infectious pancreatic necrosis is a disease that is causing increasing loses to Scottish Atlantic-salmon farms. I asked the question: is infection of individual salmon farms persistent or transient? Using Fisheries Research Services' Fish Health Inspectors' data, conditional probabilities that a farm would (time 0) be infected were estimated for farms that had been infected [P(I(0)|I(-T))] or free [P(I(0)|F(-T))] from infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) when a sample was taken at some earlier time (-T). A logistic-regression model was used to estimate these conditional probabilities with T; this model was multilevel to account for regional and inter-annual level differences in prevalence of IPNV. In freshwater, conditional probabilities remained substantially different for periods of at least 4 years, so, although many farms did change infection status, IPNV either persisted or recurred at specific freshwater farms. Marine farms showed similar conditional probabilities after about 2 years following a positive or a negative sample, indicating that infection was transient. Management of larger areas and exchanges between farms might be more effective than farm-level management at controlling marine IPNV.

Modelling salmon lice dispersal in Loch Torridon, Scotland

A particle transport model is described that is being used to simulate the dispersal of salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) larvae in the waters of Loch Torridon. A hydrodynamic model, forced by tides and winds, drives the transport model. Particle movements are strongly influenced by winds, which can lead to formation of lice concentrations in coastal areas several kilometres from the source. Idealised constant wind simulations have been used to locate areas that larval lice may potentially reach from given source locations. Detailed analysis of simulations forced with real wind data is required to assess areas that larval lice from these sources are likely to reach. Further field and experimental work on the viability of lice is required to assess infection risk.

A framework for understanding the potential for emerging diseases in aquaculture

Numerous diseases have emerged as serious economic or ecological problems in aquaculture species. The combination of factors behind the emergence of each disease is unique, but various common factors are apparent. We combine risk-analysis methods and virulence theory with historical examples (mainly from salmonid production) to identify key disease-emergence risk factors. Diseases have emerged through pathogen exchange with wild populations, evolution from non-pathogenic micro-organisms and anthropogenic transfer of stocks. Aquacultural practices frequently result in high population densities and other stresses (such as intercurrent disease) which increase the risk of infection establishment and spread. As aquaculture expands and new species are farmed, diseases will continue to emerge and affect both wild and farmed fish adversely. The rate and extent of emergence can be reduced by the application of biosecurity programmes designed to mitigate the risk factors for disease emergence.

Assessment of different transfection parameters in efficiency optimization

Achieving optimal transfection efficiency is the most critical step in overcoming the primary obstacle to success in nonviral-mediated gene therapy. Several transfection parameters were being examined including the effects of different types of transfection media, glucose concentration, reporter DNA concentration, and incubation time in lipotransfectant. Efficiency of transfection obtained was highest for Opti-MEM I (29 +/- 2.28%; p = 0.001) followed by M199 (24 +/- 1.54%; p = 0.009), both of which performed significantly better than DMEM (14 +/- 0.28%) as a transfection medium. The rate of transfection was affected by glucose levels in only DMEM with higher efficiency achieved using low glucose containing DMEM (17 +/- 0.38%) than its counterpart. Furthermore, transfection rate and cell viability were severely hampered by lengthened exposure to transfection complexes, leading to an overall mean efficiency of 5 +/- 0.87%. However, doubling the DNA content in the transfection mixture did not significantly change the mean rate of transfection in M199 medium (24 +/- 1.54% to 27 +/- 1.54%; p = 0.273). The overall range of mean efficiency acquired with our protocol under different transfection conditions was between 14% and 29%. Hopefully results from this study will further potential success in nonviral-mediated gene transfer.

In vitro senescence occurring in normal human endothelial cells can be rescued by ectopic telomerase activity

Telomerase activation is a means to delay in vitro replicative senescence in human cells via telomere maintainence; however, this enzymatic activity is virtually absent in almost all normal somatic cells. As a result, cell senesce, leading to an eventual loss of graft function. Aging allografts, either due to cell injury related to transplantation and/or the use of organs from older donors, pose a threat to the long-term survival of a graft as constitutive cells of an aging organ have a much reduced ability to thrive after transplantation. In our study, human endothelial cells were found to undergo replicative senescence in culture with an increase in the percentage of senescent cells (beta-gal staining at pH 6) and a decrease in both the fraction of S-phase cycling cells and the proliferative index measured using CFDA-SE dye. Aging endothelial cells also demonstrated slow rates of proliferation and migration compared to younger cells. Unlike control cells that were transfected with an irrelevant gene vector, telomerase-transfected endothelial cells recovered rapidly after media replacement in cultures that had been serum starved for 2 weeks. Telomerase-transfected cells also retained a high proliferative index comparable to young cells as opposed to untransfected control cells. This young phenotype provided by telomerase expression through restoration of the telomeres may help to increase the longevity of organ transplants.

Gene therapy: a lipofection approach for gene transfer into primary endothelial cells

Despite the great potential of gene therapy to become a new treatment modality in future medicine, there are still many limitations to overcome before this gene approach can pass to the stage of human trial. The foremost obstacle is the development of a safe, efficient, and efficacious vector system for in vivo gene application. This study evaluated the efficacy of lipofection as a gene delivery vehicle into primary endothelial cells. Transfection efficiency of several lipid-based reagents (Effectene, Fugene 6, DOTAP) was examined at experimental temperatures of 37 degrees C, 24 degrees C, and 6 degrees C. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) were transfected with the enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) using precise amounts of DNA (Effectene, 0.2 microg; Fugene 6, 0.5 microg; DOTAP, 2.5 microg) and lipids (Effectene, 10 microl; Fugene 6, 6 microl; DOTAP, 15 microl) optimized in our laboratory. Duration of incubation in the DNA/lipid transfection mixture varied for each lipid transfectant as follows: 5 h for both Fugene 6 and DOTAP and 3 h for Effectene. Efficiency of transfection was quantified by microscopic evaluation of EFGP expression in a minimum of 100 cells per group. Transfection efficiencies achieved with these lipofection agents were 34 +/- 1.3% (mean +/- SEM), 33 +/- 1.4%, and 18 +/- 1.5% for Effectene, Fugene 6, and DOTAP, respectively, at 37 degrees C. Transfection results were lower at 24 degrees C with mean efficiencies of 26 +/- 2.4% for Effectene, 14 +/- 2.9% for Fugene 6, and 15 +/- 3.2% for DOTAP. Furthermore, mean efficiencies at 6 degrees C were 6 +/- 0.5%, 8 +/- 1.5%, and 6 +/- 0.0% for Effectene, Fugene 6, and DOTAP, respectively. Efficiency of transfection appeared to be temperature dependent (ANOVA; p < 0.0001). In spite of a significant decrease (37 degrees C vs. 24 degrees C: p < 0.0001; 37 degrees C vs. 6 degrees C: p < 0.0001; 24 degrees C vs. 6 degrees C: p < 0.0115) in transfection efficiency at low temperatures, the successful in vitro gene manipulation renders lipofection a potential gene delivery strategy for in vivo gene therapy.

Infectious pancreatic necrosis virus in Scottish Atlantic salmon farms, 1996-2001

The rapid growth of aquaculture has provided opportunities for the emergence of diseases. Programs designed to monitor these pathogens are useful for analysis of regional variation and trends, provided methods are standardized. Data from an official monitoring program were used to analyze the emergence of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus in Scottish salmon farms from 1996 to 2001. An annual increase in the prevalence of this virus was found in saltwater (10%) and freshwater sites (2% to 3%), with a much faster increase (6.5%) in Shetland's freshwater sites. No significant increase in the virus was detected in the marine farms of southern mainland Scotland. However, the virus had become very prevalent at marine sites and was almost ubiquitous in Shetland by 2001. The prevalence of this virus at marine sites may be underestimated. Because several diseases have emerged or are emerging in fish farming, aquaculture surveillance programs represent a rich potential source of data on emerging diseases.

A model of spatially evolving herpesvirus epidemics causing mass mortality in Australian pilchard Sardinops sagax

In 1995 mass mortality of pilchards Sardinops sagax occurred along >5000 km of Australian coast; similar events occurred in 1998/99. This mortality was closely associated with a herpesvirus. The pilchard is an important food source for larger animals and supports commercial fisheries. Both epidemics originated in South Australian waters and spread as waves with velocities of 10 to 40 km d(-1). Velocity was constant for a single wave, but varied between the epidemics and between the east- and west-bound waves in each epidemic. The pattern of mortality evolved from recurrent episodes to a single peak with distance from the origin. A 1-dimensional model of these epidemics has been developed. The host population is divided into susceptible, infected and latent, infected and infectious, and removed (recovered and dead) phases; the latent and infectious periods are of fixed duration. This model produces the mortality patterns observed locally and during the spread and evolution of the epidemic. It is consistent with evidence from pathology. The wave velocity is sensitive to diffusion coefficients, viral transmission rates and latent period. These parameters are constrained using the local and large-scale patterns of epidemic spread. The relative roles of these parameters in explaining differences between epidemics and between east- and west-bound waves within epidemics are discussed. The model predicts very high levels of infection, indicating that many surviving pilchards recovered following infection. Control appears impracticable once epidemics are initiated, but impact can be minimised by protecting juvenile stocks.

An evaluation of current diagnostic tests for the detection of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) following experimental water-borne infection of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L

Four commonly used diagnostic tests [reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT), virus culture and light microscopy] were evaluated for their ability to detect infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) or tissue pathology following experimental infection of Atlantic salmon. Fish were infected with ISAV by water-borne exposure which mimics the route of natural infection. Forty-five per cent of pre-clinical fish tested yielded positive results by RT-PCR for at least one of the organs tested (kidney, heart, gill, liver, blood). No significant difference was detected between organs in the number or time of first occurrence of positive result. Virus culture identified a total of 14% of pre-clinical fish as ISAV-infected. The presence of ISAV in heart tissue was particularly notable (13% of fish sampled) as was the inability to culture virus from spleen tissue. In the case of IFAT, 15% of fish sampled were positive, although tissue other than kidney proved unsuitable for use in this method. Only limited ISAV-specific pathology was detectable by histological examination of fish prior to the onset of clinical disease. These findings reveal important information regarding the optimal choice of both tissue sample and diagnostic test for the routine diagnosis of ISAV.

Using observed load distributions with a simple model to analyse the epidemiology of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on sea trout (Salmo trutta)

Sea lice are ectoparasites of salmonids that have been associated with the recent decline in sea trout numbers in north-west Europe. Observed patterns of louse load distribution between sea trout in the seas surrounding the UK, Ireland and Norway and a simple model have been used to analyse the epidemiology of lice. Loads are aggregated and deviate strongly from the Poisson distribution, although less than is observed with many other parasites. The louse numbers on fish from offshore sites are slightly less variable than for fish from coastal sites with comparable mean loads. Analysis of louse development stages and sexes shows that selection between hosts by sea lice plays a limited role. If host selection is absent, then associated poor condition would be caused by, not the cause of, high louse burdens; however the absence of such selection is not proved. Scenarios with infection that is patchy in space and time best generate the aggregated load patterns observed; these patches accord with observed swarms of copepodids. Prevalence patterns may indicate the movement of trout between environments. Control of copepodids in infection 'hot spots', either directly or through control of louse egg production in their catchment, may reduce louse loads on wild sea trout and, in particular, extreme and damaging loads.

A tractable deterministic model with realistic latent period for an epidemic in a linear habitat

This paper describes a model for the spatial spread of an epidemic in which the latent period has a Gamma distribution with arbitrary mean and variance while the infected and uninfected may have different diffusion coefficients. Using a variant of the "linear chain trick" we derive a simple algorithm for the propagation speed of the infection front. By way of verification, we show that, with suitably matched parameters, the algorithm agrees closely with speeds obtained numerically from the corresponding model in which the latent period is a constant.

Shipping and the spread of infectious salmon anemia in Scottish aquaculture

Long-distance transport of pathogens plays a critical role in the emergence of novel diseases. Shipping is a major contributor to such transport, and the role of ships in spreading disease has been recognized for centuries. However, statistical confirmation of pathogen spread by shipping is usually impractical. We present evidence of invasive spread of infectious salmon anemia in the salmon farms of Scotland and demonstrate a link between vessel visits and farm contamination. The link is associated with vessels moving fish between sites and transporting harvest, but not with vessels delivering food or involved in other work.

Infectious salmon anaemia virus in wild fish from Scotland

Following the outbreak of infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) at salmon farms in Scotland, UK, a survey was established to determine the extent of infection in wild fish. All fish tested were free from the clinical symptoms of ISA. Isolations of ISAV were made from 5 sea trout within areas where ISA affected salmon farms were located. Evidence for ISAV in other sea trout was provided by ISA RT-PCR diagnostic tests. Results from ISA RT-PCR tests reveal evidence for ISAV being present in salmon parr, adult salmon and juvenile brown trout in rivers distant from salmon farms and indicate that, at the time of the survey (1998-1999), ISAV may have been widely distributed. Nucleotide sequence analysis of segments 2 and 8 showed that for most sequences from wild fish there was 100% homology with ISAV isolated from clinically affected farmed fish although evidence is presented which indicates variability in ISAV sequences from wild fish. Modelling the RT-PCR findings indicates that ISAV among salmonid fish was spatially non-random. Brown trout, sea trout and salmon (adult and parr) show a pattern of occasionally large numbers of positive samples against a background of very low numbers.

Simple models of massive epidemics of herpesvirus in Australian (and New Zealand) pilchards

In March 1995, a mass mortality of pilchard started to occur in South Australia. This spread very rapidly throughout the Australian pilchard's range, later reaching New Zealand. In November 1998, a similar mass mortality broke out in South Australia and also spread, at a slower rate, throughout the Australian range. The mortality appeared to be caused by a herpesvirus. The mortality spread as a classical epidemic front, but its speed of progress and the brief duration of mortalities at a given location are extreme. We apply simple epidemic modelling techniques, SIR and SEIR modelling, to examine the factors behind the spread of this mortality and the differences between the 1995 and 1998/9 epidemics. We discuss biological factors influencing the critical processes of long-distance (D) and local (beta) transmission of infection.

Modelling treated waste disposal in Port Phillip Bay and Bass Strait biogeochemical and physical removal

Large cities, such as Melbourne, generate substantial quantities of sewage, which, after treatment, must be disposed. Melbourne's sewage is disposed via two routes, that treated at the Western Treatment Plant (WTP) is discharged in enclosed Port Phillip Bay, while the Boags Rock outfall empties into the exposed Bass Strait. In Port Phillip Bay biogeochemical processes control the fate of waste, while in the Bass Strait physical mixing rapidly disperses the waste. These different processes require very different ecosystem models. Port Phillip Bay requires detailed modelling of water-column and in-sediment processes, in particular detailed models of recycling processes, and also modelling of benthos-water-column interactions. Interaction of these components gives the model a nonlinear response to change in load. The Bass Strait ecosystem model is simple with no modelling of the sediment and limited modelling of water-column recycling. This model's behaviour is largely controlled by the physical environment.

Noncytolytic human lymphocytes injure dermal microvessels in the huPBL-SCID skin graft model

Recent transplantation experiments using perforin-deficient mice as allograft recipients have challenged the concept that allograft rejection is mediated exclusively by CTL. We sought to determine if human noncytolytic lymphocytes could mediate rejection of allogeneic human skin grafts in the huPBL-SCID mouse model of rejection. We generated short term lines of human lymphocytes from peripheral blood mononuclear cells using PHA as a mitogen. The first group was stimulated with PHA alone, the second with PHA plus IL-4 and neutralizing antibody to IL-12, and in the third group PBL were depleted of B cells and monocytes before stimulation as in group 2. After two passages, lines were tested for cytolytic ability and IFN-gamma production. Each line was injected i.p. to mice bearing allogeneic skin grafts. The grafts were harvested between day 16 and 21 after PBL injection, then the histology was scored by a blinded observer for degree of infiltration, microvessel injury, induction of epidermal MHC class II, and perforin expression. In vitro we found that PBL in groups 2 and 3 were unable to lyse cultured endothelial cells in a lectin-directed 111In release assay. In vivo 80% of the IL-4/anti-IL-12 groups maintained the IFN-gamma-low phenotype, and no perforin was detected in these grafts. Nevertheless, human microvessel injury was similar between the two groups. This was not antibody-dependent since the B-cell-depleted group showed similar injury. Moreover adjacent murine vessels were intact. We interpret these observations to show (1) these human PBL lines maintained their phenotype following in vivo restimulation, and (2) noncytolytic graft-infiltrating lymphocytes specifically promote injury of allogeneic human microvessels.

Visualization of Plasmodium falciparum-endothelium interactions in human microvasculature: mimicry of leukocyte recruitment

Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes roll on and/or adhere to CD36, intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1, and P-selectin under shear conditions in vitro. However, the lack of an adequate animal model has made it difficult to determine whether infected erythrocytes do indeed interact in vivo in microvessels. Therefore, we made use of an established model of human skin grafted onto severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) mice to directly visualize the human microvasculature by epifluorescence intravital microscopy. In all grafts examined, infected erythrocytes were observed to roll and/or adhere in not just postcapillary venules but also in arterioles. In contrast, occlusion of capillaries by infected erythrocytes was noted only in approximately half of the experiments. Administration of an anti-CD36 antibody resulted in a rapid reduction of rolling and adhesion. More importantly, already adherent cells quickly detached. The residual rolling after anti-CD36 treatment was largely inhibited by an anti-ICAM-1 antibody. Anti-ICAM-1 alone reduced the ability of infected erythrocytes to sustain rolling and subsequent adhesion. These findings provide conclusive evidence that infected erythrocytes interact within the human microvasculature in vivo by a multistep adhesive cascade that mimics the process of leukocyte recruitment.