Changes in educational inequalities in knee and hip osteoarthritis surgery and non-surgery specialist care visits over time in Sweden

Objective

To examine changes in prevalence and socioeconomic inequalities in knee and hip OA outcomes, in more specific surgery and non-surgery specialist care visits, from 2001 to 2011 in Sweden and to what extent sociodemographic factors can explain the changes.

Design

We included all individuals aged ≥35 years resident in Sweden from 2001 to 2011. Individual-level data was retrieved from the Swedish Interdisciplinary Panel. Highest educational attainment was used as socioeconomic measure and the concentration index was used to assess relative and absolute educational inequalities. We used decomposition method to examine changes in prevalence and relative educational inequalities.

Results

A total of 4,794,693 and 5,359,186 people were included for the years 2001 and 2011, respectively. The crude prevalence of surgery and specialist visits for knee and hip OA was 36-83% higher in 2011 than in 2001. The increase in hip OA outcomes was largely explained by changes in the sociodemographic composition of the population, whereas for knee OA outcomes, changes in the strength of the associations with sociodemographic factors appeared more important. All outcomes were concentrated among people with lower education in all study years. The relative inequalities declined over the study period, while the absolute inequalities increased for knee OA outcomes and remained stable for hip OA.

Conclusion

Our findings show an increasing burden of all studied OA outcomes. Moreover, our findings suggest persistent educational inequalities with more surgeries and specialist visits among lower-educated individuals. Future research should incorporate additional variables to better understand and address these inequalities.

Patient acceptable symptom state and treatment failure threshold values for work productivity and activity Impairment and EQ-5D-5L in osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

To estimate patient acceptable symptom state (PASS) and treatment failure (TF) threshold values for Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) measure and EQ-5D-5L among people with hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA) 3 and 12 months following participation in a digital self-management intervention (Joint Academy®).

METHODS

Among the participants, we computed work and activity impairments scores (both 0-100, with a higher value reflecting higher impairment) and the Swedish hypothetical- (range: - 0.314 to 1) and experience-based (range: 0.243-0.976) EQ-5D-5L index scores (a higher score indicates better health status) at 3- (n = 14,607) and 12-month (n = 2707) follow-ups. Threshold values for PASS and TF were calculated using anchor-based adjusted predictive modeling. We also explored the baseline dependency of threshold values according to pain severity at baseline.

RESULTS

Around 42.0% and 48.3% of the participants rated their current state as acceptable, while 4.2% and 2.8% considered the treatment had failed at 3 and 12 months, respectively. The 3-month PASS/TF thresholds were 16/29 (work impairment), 26/50 (activity impairment), 0.92/0.77 (hypothetical EQ-5D-5L), and 0.87/0.77 (the experience-based EQ-5D-5L). The thresholds at 12 months were generally comparable to those estimated at 3 months. There were baseline dependencies in PASS/TF thresholds with participants with more severe baseline pain considering poorer (more severe) level of WPAI/EQ-5D-5L as satisfactory.

CONCLUSION

PASS and TF threshold values for WPAI and EQ-5D-5L might be useful for meaningful interpretation of these measures among people with OA. The observed baseline dependency of estimated thresholds limits their generalizability and values should be applied with great caution in other settings/populations.

Weekly pain trajectories among people with knee or hip osteoarthritis participating in a digitally delivered first-line exercise and education treatment

OBJECTIVE

Digital self-management programs are increasingly used in the management of osteoarthritis (OA). Little is known about heterogeneous patterns in response to these programs. We describe weekly pain trajectories of people with knee or hip OA over up to 52-week participation in a digital self-management program.

METHODS

Observational cohort study among participants enrolled between January 2019 and September 2021 who participated at least 4 and up to 52 weeks in the program (n = 16 274). We measured pain using Numeric Rating Scale (NRS 0-10) and applied latent class growth analysis to identify classes with similar trajectories. Associations between baseline characteristics and trajectory classes were examined using multinomial logistic regression and dominance analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 4 pain trajectory classes: "mild-largely improved" (30%), "low moderate-largely improved" (34%), "upper moderate-improved" (24%), and "severe-persistent" (12%). For classes with decreasing pain, the most pain reduction occurred during first 20 weeks and was stable thereafter. Male sex, older age, lower body mass index (BMI), better physical function, lower activity impairment, less anxiety/depression, higher education, knee OA, no walking difficulties, no wish for surgery and higher physical activity, all measured at enrolment, were associated with greater probabilities of membership in "mild-largely improved" class than other classes. Dominance analysis suggested that activity impairment followed by wish for surgery and walking difficulties were the most important predictors of trajectory class membership.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight the importance of reaching people with OA for first-line treatment prior to developing severe pain, poor health status and a wish for surgery.

The contributions of avoidable causes of death to gender gap in life expectancy and life disparity in the US and Canada: 2001-2019

OBJECTIVES

This study measures public health policies' and healthcare system's influence, by assessing the contributions of avoidable deaths, on the gender gaps in life expectancy and disparity (GGLD and GGLD, respectively) in the United States (US) and Canada from 2001 to 2019.

METHODS

To estimate the GGLE and GGLD, we retrieved age- and sex-specific causes of death from the World Health Organization's mortality database. By employing the continuous-change model, we decomposed the GGLE and GGLD by age and cause of death for each year and over time using females as the reference group.

RESULTS

In Canada and the US, the GGLE (GGLD) narrowed (increased) by 0.9 (0.2) and 0.2 (0.3) years, respectively. Largest contributor to the GGLE was non-avoidable deaths in Canada and preventable deaths in the US. Preventable deaths had the largest contributions to the GGLD in both countries. Ischemic heart disease contributed to the narrowing GGLE/GGLD in both countries. Conversely, treatable causes of death increased the GGLE/GGLD in both countries. In Canada, "treatable & preventable" as well as preventable causes of death narrowed the GGLE while opposite was seen in the US. While lung cancer contributed to the narrowing GGLE/GGLD, drug-related death contributed to the widening GGLE/GGLD in both countries. Injury-related deaths contributed to the narrowing GGLE/GGLD in Canada but not in the US. The contributions of avoidable causes of death to the GGLE declined in the age groups 55-74 in Canada and 70-74 in the US, whereas the GGLE widened for ages 25-34 in the US.

CONCLUSION

Canada experienced larger reduction in the GGLE compared to the US attributed mainly to preventable causes of death. To narrow the GGLE and GGLD, the US needs to address injury deaths. Urgent interventions are required for drug-related death in both countries, particularly among males aged 15-44 years.

Sex and age differences in the patient-reported outcome measures and adherence to an osteoarthritis digital self-management intervention

Objective

To explore sex and age differences in Patient-Reported Outcomes Measures (PROMs) and adherence to digital osteoarthritis (OA) self-management intervention.

Methods

A register-based study with data from an OA digital self-management intervention. PROMs and adherence were collected at baseline and/or 3 ​month follow-up: 'pain intensity' in hip/knee (best/worst: 0-10), 'activity impairments' (best/worst: 0-10), 'overall health' perception (worst/best: 0-10), 'physical function' (30-s chair stand test), 'health-related quality of life' (EQ-5D-5L index score; worst/best: 0.243-0.976), the subscales and total scores of the Knee Injury/Hip Disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS/HOOS-12; worst/best: 0-100), 'fear of movement' (yes/no), 'walking difficulties' (yes/no), 'programme adherence' (0-100 ​% and ≥80 ​% [yes/no]), 'patient acceptable symptom state' (PASS; yes/no), and 'treatment failure' (those who answered no to PASS question and thought the treatment failed [yes/no]). We used linear/logistic regression to calculate mean/risk differences in the PROMs and adherence levels among sex and age groups at 3-month follow-up. We employed entropy balancing to explore the contributions of baseline characteristics and different covariates to the sex/age differences.

Results

We included 14,610 participants (mean (SD) age: 64.1 (9.1), 75.5 ​% females). Females generally reported better outcomes than males. Participants aged ≥70 had greater activity impairments, lower KOOS/HOOS-pain/function scores, more walking difficulties, less fear of movement and higher adherence than those <70. However, these differences were small and not likely clinically relevant.

Conclusion

No clinically relevant differences in PROMs and adherence were found among sex/age groups in this digital OA programme, suggesting that sex/age seemed not to impact the outcomes of this intervention.

Income-Related Inequality Changes in Osteoarthritis First-Line Interventions: A Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine income-related inequality changes in the outcomes of an osteoarthritis (OA) first-line intervention.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Swedish health care system.

PARTICIPANTS

We included 115,403 people (age: 66.2±9.7 years; females 67.8%; N=115,403) with knee (67.8%) or hip OA (32.4%) recorded in the "Swedish Osteoarthritis Registry" (SOAR).

INTERVENTIONS

Exercise and education.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Erreygers' concentration index (E) measured income-related inequalities in "Pain intensity," "Self-efficacy," "Use of NSAIDs," and "Desire for surgery" at baseline, 3-month, and 12-month follow-ups and their differences over time. E-values range from -1 to +1 if the health variables are more concentrated among people with lower or higher income. Zero represents perfect equality. We used entropy balancing to address demographic and outcome imbalances and bootstrap replications to estimate confidence intervals for E differences over time.

RESULTS

Comparing baseline to 3 months, "pain" concentrated more among individuals with lower income initially (E=-0.027), intensifying at 3 months (difference with baseline: E=-0.011 [95% CI: -0.014; -0.008]). Similarly, the "Desire for surgery" concentrated more among individuals with lower income initially (E=-0.009), intensifying at 3 months (difference with baseline: E=-0.012 [-0.018; -0.005]). Conversely, "Self-efficacy" concentrated more among individuals with higher income initially (E=0.058), intensifying at 3 months (difference with baseline: E=0.008 [0.004; 0.012]). Lastly, the "Use of NSAIDs" concentrated more among individuals with higher income initially (E=0.068) but narrowed at 3 months (difference with baseline: E=-0.029 [-0.038; -0.021]). Comparing baseline with 12 months, "pain" concentrated more among individuals with lower income initially (E=-0.024), intensifying at 12 months (difference with baseline: E=-0.017 [-0.022; -0.012]). Similarly, the "Desire for surgery" concentrated more among individuals with lower income initially (E=-0.016), intensifying at 12 months (difference with baseline: E=-0.012 [-0.022; -0.002]). Conversely, "Self-efficacy" concentrated more among individuals with higher income initially (E=0.059), intensifying at 12 months (difference with baseline: E=0.016 [0.011; 0.021]). The variable 'Use of NSAIDs' was not recorded in the SOAR at 12-month follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlight the increase of income-related inequalities in the SOAR over time.

Inflammatory rheumatic diseases and the risk of drug use disorders: a register-based cohort study in Sweden

To investigate the association between chronic inflammatory rheumatic diseases (CIRD) and drug use disorder (DUD). Individuals aged ≥ 30 years in 2009 that met the following conditions were included: residing in the Skåne region, Sweden, with at least one healthcare contact in person and no history of DUD (ICD-10 codes F11-F16, F18-F19) during 1998-2009 (N = 649,891). CIRD was defined as the presence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), psoriatic arthritis (PsA), or systemic lupus erythematosus. Treating CIRD as a time-varying exposure, we followed people from January 1, 2010 until a diagnosis of DUD, death, relocation outside the region, or December 31, 2019, whichever occurred first. We used flexible parametric survival models adjusted for attained age, sociodemographic characteristics, and coexisting conditions for data analysis. There were 64 (95% CI 62-66) and 104 (88-123) incident DUD per 100,000 person-years among those without and with CIRD, respectively. CIRD was associated with an increased risk of DUD in age-adjusted analysis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.77, 95% CI 1.49-2.09). Almost identical HR (1.71, 95% CI 1.45-2.03) was estimated after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, and it slightly attenuated when coexisting conditions were additionally accounted for (1.47, 95% CI 1.24-1.74). Fully adjusted HRs were 1.49 (1.21-1.85) for RA, 2.00 (1.38-2.90) for AS, and 1.58 (1.16-2.16) for PsA. More stringent definitions of CIRD didn't alter our findings. CIRD was associated with an increased risk of DUD independent of sociodemographic factors and coexisting conditions. Key Points • A register-based cohort study including 649,891 individuals aged≥30 residing in the Skåne region, Sweden, was conducted. • Chronic inflammatory rheumatic diseases were associated with higher risks of drug use disorder independent of sociodemographic factors and coexisting conditions.

Digitally delivered education and exercises for patients with hand osteoarthritis-An observational study

Hand osteoarthritis (OA) is a common form of OA, for which education and exercise are considered the first-line treatment. The aim of the present study was to examine pain and perceived hand function in participants following 3 months of digitally delivered first-line treatment for hand OA. Three-hundred-and-seventy-nine of 846 participants with clinical signs and symptoms of hand OA completed the study. The digital hand OA treatment program consists of video instructed daily exercises and patient education through text lessons. Pain (NRS, 0 no pain, 10 worst) was the primary outcome, and stiffness (NRS) and the Functional Index for Hand OsteoArthritis (FIHOA, 0 best, 30 worst) were among secondary outcomes. The McNemar test and linear mixed effect regression model were used to assess the changes in outcomes from baseline to 3-month. After three months, the digitally delivered program was associated with a significant decrease in pain intensity (mean change -1.30 (95% CI -1.49, -1.12)) and hand stiffness (mean change -0.81 (95% CI -1.02, -0.60)) but no conclusive changes in the FIHOA scores (mean change 0.3 (95% CI -0.2, 0.7)). The results agree with reports on face-to-face delivered first-line treatment for hand OA suggesting that digital treatment is a viable treatment option in patients with hand OA.

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.

Findings

Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).

Interpretation

Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Factors Associated With Adherence to a Supervised Exercise Intervention for Osteoarthritis: Data From the Swedish Osteoarthritis Registry

OBJECTIVE

To explore how lifestyle and demographic, socioeconomic, and disease-related factors are associated with supervised exercise adherence in an osteoarthritis (OA) management program and the ability of these factors to explain exercise adherence.

METHODS

A cohort register-based study on participants from the Swedish Osteoarthritis Registry who attended the exercise part of a nationwide Swedish OA management program. We ran a multinomial logistic regression to determine the association of exercise adherence with the abovementioned factors. We calculated their ability to explain exercise adherence with the McFadden R2 .

RESULTS

Our sample comprises 19,750 participants (73% female, mean ± SD age 67 ± 8.9 years). Among them, 5,862 (30%) reached a low level of adherence, 3,947 (20%) a medium level, and 9,941 (50%) a high level. After a listwise deletion, the analysis was run on 16,685 participants (85%), with low levels of adherence as the reference category. Some factors were positively associated with high levels of adherence, such as older age (relative risk ratio [RRR] 1.01 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.01-1.02] per year), and the arthritis-specific self-efficacy (RRR 1.04 [95% CI 1.02-1.07] per 10-point increase). Others were negatively associated with high levels of adherence, such as female sex (RRR 0.82 [95% CI 0.75-0.89]), having a medium (RRR 0.89 [95% CI 0.81-0.98] or a high level of education (RRR 0.84 [95% CI 0.76-0.94]). Nevertheless, the investigating factors could explain 1% of the variability in exercise adherence (R2 = 0.012).

CONCLUSION

Despite the associations reported above, the poorly explained variability suggests that strategies based on lifestyle and demographic, socioeconomic, and disease-related factors are unlikely to improve exercise adherence significantly.

Within-person change in patient-reported outcomes and their association with the wish to undergo joint surgery during a digital first-line intervention for osteoarthritis

AIM

To study the association between within-person changes in patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) and wish for joint surgery during participation in a digital first-line intervention comprising exercise and education for knee/hip osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

Retrospective observational registry study. Participants enrolled between June 1, 2018 and October 30, 2021, with follow-up data at three months (n = 13,961). We used asymmetric fixed effect (conditional) logistic regressions to study the association between change in wish to undergo surgery at last available time point (3, 6, 9, or 12 months) and improvement or worsening of PROMs pain (0-10), quality of life (QoL) (EQ5D-5L, 0.243-0.976), overall health (0-10), activity impairment (0-10), walking difficulties (yes/no), fear of movement (yes/no), and Knee/Hip injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score 12 Items (KOOS-12/HOOS-12, 0-100) function and QoL subscales.

RESULTS

The proportion of participants wishing to undergo surgery declined by 2% (95% CI: 1.9, 3.0), from 15.7% at the baseline to 13.3% at 3 months. Generally, improvements in PROMs were associated with reduced likelihood of wishing for surgery, while worsening was associated with increased likelihood. For pain, activity impairment EQ-5D and KOOS/HOOS QoL, a worsening led to a change in the probability of wish for surgery of larger absolute magnitude than an improvement in the same PROM.

CONCLUSIONS

Within-person improvements in PROMs are associated with reduced wish for surgery while worsenings with an increased wish for surgery. Larger improvements in PROMs may be needed to match the magnitude of the change in wish for surgery associated with a worsening in the same PROM.

Interpretation threshold values for patient-reported outcomes in patients participating in a digitally delivered first-line treatment program for hip or knee osteoarthritis

Objective

Establish proportions of patients reporting important improvement, acceptable symptoms and treatment failure and define interpretation threshold values for pain, patient-reported function and quality-of-life after participating in digital first-line treatment including education and exercise for hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA).

Methods

Observational study. Responses to the pain Numeric Rating Scale (NRS, 0-10 best to worst), Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score 12 (KOOS-12) and Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score 12 (HOOS-12, both 0-100 worst to best) were obtained for 4383 (2987) and 2041 (1264) participants with knee (hip) OA at 3 and 12 months post intervention. Threshold values for Minimal Important Change (MIC), Patient Acceptable Symptom State (PASS) and Treatment Failure (TF) were estimated using anchor-based predictive modeling.

Results

70-85% reported an important improvement in pain, function and quality of life after 3 and 12 months follow-up. 42% (3 months) and 51% (12 months) considered their current state as satisfactory, whereas 2-4% considered treatment failed. MIC values were -1 (NRS) and 0-4 (KOOS/HOOS-12) across follow-ups and joint affected. PASS threshold value for NRS was 3, and 53-73 for the KOOS/HOOS-12 subscales Corresponding values for TF were 5 (NRS) and 34-55 (KOOS/HOOS-12). Patients with more severe pain at baseline had higher MIC scores and accepted poorer outcomes at follow-ups.

Conclusion

Threshold estimates aid in the interpretation of outcomes after first-line OA interventions assessed with NRS Pain and KOOS/HOOS-12. Baseline pain severity is important to consider when interpreting threshold values after first-line interventions in these patients.

Contributions of avoidable mortality to the sex gap in life expectancy and life disparity in Iran

BACKGROUND

Public health policies and healthcare quality play a pivotal role on the health outcome level and disparities across sociodemographic groups. However, there is little evidence on their role on disparities in life expectancy (LE) and life disparity (LD) in low and middle income countries. The present study aimed to assess the contributions of avoidable mortality, as a measure of inter-sectoral public health policies and healthcare quality, into the sex gap in LE (SGLE) and LD (SGLD) in Iran.

METHODS

Latest available data of death causes, according to the ICD codes, for Iran was obtained from the WHO mortality database for the period 2015-2016. An upper age limit of 75 years was applied to define avoidable causes of death. LD was measured as the average years of life lost at birth. The SGLE and SGLD (both females minus males) were decomposed by age and cause of death using a continuous-change model.

RESULTS

Females, on average, outlived males for 3.8 years (80.0 vs. 76.2 years) with 1.9 lower life years lost (12.6 vs. 14.4 years). Avoidable causes accounted for 2.5 (67%) and 1.5 (79%) years of the SGLE and SGLD, respectively. Among avoidable causes, injury-related deaths followed by ischaemic heart disease had the greatest contributions to both SGLE and SGLD. Across age groups, the age groups 55-59 and 60-64 accounted for the greatest contributions of avoidable causes to SGLE (0.3 years each), while age groups 20-24 and 55-59 had the greatest contributions to SGLD (0.15 years each). Lower mortality rates for females than males in age groups 50-74 years accounted for about half of the SGLE, while age groups 20-29 and 50-64 years accounted for around half of SGLD.

CONCLUSION

More than two third of the SGLE and SGLD in Iran were attributed to the avoidable mortality, particularly preventable causes. Our results suggest the need for public health policies targeting injuries in young males as well as lifestyle risk factors including smoking in middle aged males in Iran.

Identifying Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug (NSAID) Users Among People with Osteoarthritis Through Administrative and Clinician-Reported Data - A Validation Study of 116,162 Patients

Purpose

(i) To report the prevalence of participants to a first-line intervention for OA in Sweden using over-the-counter (OTC) and/or prescribed NSAIDs; (ii) To estimate the accuracy of dispensed prescriptions of NSAIDs recorded in a Swedish health-care register to capture the use of NSAID considering clinician-report as reference standard.

Methods

Register-based study. We used data from OA individuals who participated in the Swedish first-line intervention recorded in the Swedish Osteoarthritis Register (SOAR). SOAR includes clinician-reported use of NSAIDs in the three months preceding the intervention. We used the Prescribed Drug Register to retrieve data on NSAID prescriptions dispensed in the same period. We estimated the prevalence of OTC users (individuals with clinicians-reported use of NSAID but no prescription dispensed), prescription users (individuals with clinicians-reported use of NSAID and a prescription dispensed) and non-users (neither of the previous). We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of dispensed prescriptions of NSAIDs vs clinician-report.

Results

We included 116,162 individuals (mean age [Standard Deviation]: 66 [9.6] years, 79% women, 77% knee OA). Overall, 24.7% (95% Confidence Intervals [CI] 24.5%; 25.0%) used OTC NSAIDs only, 18.2% (18.0%; 18.5%) used prescribed NSAIDs, 6.6% (6-4%; 6.7%) reported not using NSAIDs while having an NSAID prescription dispensed. Of the 49,913 individuals with clinician-reported use of NSAIDs, 21,190 had a prescription dispensed (sensitivity: 42.5% [95% CI 42.0%, 42.9%]; positive predictive value: 73.5% [73.0%, 74.0%]). Of the 66,249 individuals reporting not using NSAIDs, 58,617 did not have a prescription dispensed (specificity: 88.5% [88.2%, 88.7%]; negative predictive value: 67.1% [66.8%, 67.4%]).

Conclusion

Overall, 24.7% of participants in a first-line intervention for OA used OTC NSAIDs only while 18.2% used prescribed NSAIDs. Dispensed prescriptions of NSAIDs have high specificity but low sensitivity and can correctly identify about 70% of both the non-users and users in this population.

Digital self-management of hip and knee osteoarthritis and trajectories of work and activity impairments

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the trajectories of work and activity impairments among people participating in a digital self-management program for osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

We conducted an observational longitudinal study using data for baseline, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months follow ups from people participating in a digital OA treatment between June 2018 and September 2021. The Work Productivity and Activity Impairment-Osteoarthritis (WPAI-OA) questionnaire was used to measure work and activity impairments. We applied linear mixed models and group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) to assess the trajectories of work and activity impairments and their variability. Dominance analysis was performed to explore the relative importance of baseline characteristics in predicting the trajectory subgroup membership.

RESULTS

A total of 14,676 participants with mean (± standard deviation) age 64.0 (± 9.1) years and 75.5% females were included. The adjusted mean improvements in work impairment from baseline were 5.8% (95% CI 5.3, 6.4) to 6.1% (95% CI 5.5, 6.8). The corresponding figures for activity impairment were 9.4% (95% CI 9.0, 9.7) to 11.3% (95% CI 10.8, 11.8). GBTM identified five (low baseline-declining, moderate baseline-declining, high baseline-declining, very high baseline-substantially declining, and very high baseline-persistent) and three (low baseline-declining, mild baseline-declining, high baseline-declining) subgroups with distinct trajectories of activity and work impairments. Dominance analysis showed that baseline pain was the most important predictor of membership in trajectory subgroups.

CONCLUSION

While participation in a digital self-management program for OA was, on average, associated with improvements in work and activity impairments, there were substantial variations among the participants. Baseline pain may provide useful insights to predict trajectories of work and activity impairments.

Changes to consultations and diagnosis of osteoarthritis in primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

General practitioners (GP) are often the first medical professionals to treat musculoskeletal complaints. Yet the impact of COVID-19 on primary care utilisation for musculoskeletal complaints is largely unknown. This study quantifies the impact of the pandemic on primary care utilisation for musculoskeletal complaints and specifically osteoarthritis (OA) in the Netherlands.

DESIGN

We extracted data on GP consultations in 2015-2020 from 118,756 patients over 45 years of age and estimated reductions in consultations in 2020 as compared to 5-year average. Outcomes were GP consultations for: any musculoskeletal complaints, knee and hip OA and complaints, newly diagnosed knee and hip OA/complaints.

RESULTS

The relative reductions in consultations ranged from 46.7% (95% CI: 43.9-49.3%) (all musculoskeletal consultations) to 61.6% (95% CI: 44.7-73.3%) (hip complaints) at the peak of the first wave, and from 9.3% (95% CI: 5.7-12.7%) (all musculoskeletal consultations) to 26.6% (95% CI: 11.5-39.1%) (knee OA) at the peak of the second wave. The reductions for new diagnoses were 87.0% (95% CI: 71.5-94.1%) for knee OA/complaints, and 70.5% (95% CI: 37.7-86.0%) for hip OA/complaints at the peak of the first wave, and not statistically significant at the peak of the second wave.

CONCLUSION

We observed 47% reduction in GP consultations for musculoskeletal disorders during the first wave and 9.3% during the second wave. For hip and knee OA/complaints, the reductions were over 50% during the first, and 10% during the second wave. This disruption may lead to accumulation of patients with severe OA symptoms and more requests for arthroplasty surgery.

Assessing the importance of predictors of adherence to a digital self‑management intervention for osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

Treatment adherence is suggested to be associated with greater improvement in patient outcomes. Despite the growing use of digital therapeutics in osteoarthritis management, there is limited evidence of person-level factors influencing adherence to these interventions in real-world settings. We aimed to determine the relative importance of factors influencing adherence to a digital self-management intervention for hip/knee osteoarthritis.

METHODS

We obtained data from people participating in a digital OA treatment, known as Joint Academy, between January 2019 and September 2021. We collected data on the participants' adherence, defined as the percentage of completed activities (exercises, lessons, and quizzes), at 3 (n = 14,610)- and 12-month (n = 2682) follow-up. We used dominance and relative weight analyses to assess the relative importance of sociodemographic (age, sex, place of residence, education, year of enrolment), lifestyle (body mass index, physical activity), general health (comorbidity, overall health, activity impairment, anxiety/depression), and osteoarthritis-related (index joint, fear of moving, walking difficulties, pain, physical function, wish for surgery, Patient Acceptable Symptom State) factors, measured at baseline, in explaining variations in adherence. We used bootstrap (1000 replications) to compute 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) adherences at 3 and 12 months were 86.3% (16.1) and 84.1% (16.7), with 75.1% and 70.4% of participants reporting an adherence ≥ 80%, respectively. The predictors included in the study explained only 5.6% (95% CI 5.1, 6.6) and 8.1% (7.3, 11.6) of variations in 3- and 12-month adherences, respectively. Sociodemographic factors were the most important predictors explaining more variations than other factors altogether. Among single factors, age with a nonlinear relationship with adherence, was the most important predictor explaining 2.3% (95% CI 1.9, 2.8) and 3.7% (2.4, 5.3) of variations in 3- and 12-month adherences, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Person-level factors could only modestly explain the variations in adherence with sociodemographic characteristics, mainly age, accounting for the greatest portion of this explained variance.

The contributions of injury deaths to the gender gap in life expectancy and life disparity in Eastern Mediterranean Region

BACKGROUND

Injury deaths constitute a major avoidable cause of death affecting life expectancy to a different degree in men and women. This study quantified the contributions of injury deaths to the gender gap in life expectancy (GGLE) and life disparity (GGLD) in nine Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries.

METHODS

We retrieved annual data on age-sex specific causes of death from the World Health Organization mortality database for EMR countries with at least 2-year consecutive data during 2010-2019. The injury-related deaths were categorized into five groups: transport accidents, other accidental injuries, intentional self-harm, assault and events of undetermined intent. Considering women as the reference, the GGLE and GGLD were decomposed by age and causes of death, using a continuous-change model.

RESULTS

The largest and smallest GGLE were observed in Kuwait (5.2 years) and Qatar (- 1.2 years), respectively. Qatar (- 2.2 years) and Oman (0.2 years) had the highest and lowest GGLD. The highest contributions of injury deaths to the GGLE/GGLD were seen in Libya (1.8/- 1.2 years), followed by Iran (1.2/- 0.8 years). Among injury causes, transport accidents were the leading cause of GGLE in all countries but Libya and Morocco, with Iran having the greatest contributions (0.6 years). Injury deaths in men aged 15-29 years accounted for 33% [41%] (Kuwait) to 55% [65%] (Oman) of total GGLE [GGLD] attributable to injury deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

High injury deaths, particularly transport accidents, among young men contributed substantially to the GGLE and GGLD across nine EMR countries in this study. This highlights the need for implementing preventing policies to reduce the burden of injury deaths specifically in young men.

Incipient dementia and avoidable hospital admission in persons with osteoarthritis

Objective

To investigate the associations between incipient dementia (ID) and hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) among people with osteoarthritis (OA) of the peripheral joints.

Methods

Among individuals aged 51-99 years residing in Skåne, Sweden, in 2009, we identified those with a doctor-diagnosed OA and no dementia during 1998-2009 (n ​= ​57,733). Treating ID as a time-varying exposure, we followed people from January 1, 2010 or their 60th birthday (whichever occurred last) until hospitalization for ACSCs, death, 100th birthday, relocation outside Skåne, or December 31, 2019 (whichever occurred first). Using age as time scale, we applied flexible parametric survival models, adjusted for confounders, to assess the associations between ID and hospitalization for ACSCs.

Results

There were 58 and 33 hospitalizations for ACSCs per 1000 person-years among OA people with and without ID, respectively. The association between ID and hospitalization for any ACSCs was age-dependent with higher risk in ages<86 years and lower risks in older ages. Between ages 60 and 100 years, persons with ID had, on average, 5.8 (95% CI 0.9, 10.7), 1.6 (-2.6, 5.9) and 3.1 (2.3, 4.0) fewer hospital-free years for any, chronic and acute ACSCs, respectively, compared with persons without ID.

Conclusions

Among persons with OA, while ID was associated with increased risks of hospitalization for ACSCs in younger ages, it was associated with decreased risk in oldest ages. These results suggest the need for improvement in quality of ambulatory care including the continuity of care for people with OA having dementia.

Post-covid medical complaints following infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron vs Delta variants

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant has been associated with less severe acute disease, however, concerns remain as to whether long-term complaints persist to a similar extent as for earlier variants. Studying 1 323 145 persons aged 18-70 years living in Norway with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection in a prospective cohort study, we found that individuals infected with Omicron had a similar risk of post-covid complaints (fatigue, cough, heart palpitations, shortness of breath and anxiety/depression) as individuals infected with Delta (B.1.617.2), from 14 to up to 126 days after testing positive, both in the acute (14 to 29 days), sub-acute (30 to 89 days) and chronic post-covid (≥90 days) phases. However, at ≥90 days after testing positive, individuals infected with Omicron had a lower risk of having any complaint (43 (95%CI = 14 to 72) fewer per 10,000), as well as a lower risk of musculoskeletal pain (23 (95%CI = 2-43) fewer per 10,000) than individuals infected with Delta. Our findings suggest that the acute and sub-acute burden of post-covid complaints on health services is similar for Omicron and Delta. The chronic burden may be lower for Omicron vs Delta when considering musculoskeletal pain, but not when considering other typical post-covid complaints.

Gout and Hospital Admission for Ambulatory Care-Sensitive Conditions: Risks and Trajectories

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the risks and trajectories of hospital admission for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) in gout.

METHODS

Among individuals aged 35 years to 85 years residing in Skåne, Sweden, in 2005, those with no doctor-diagnosed gout during 1998 to 2005 (n = 576,659) were followed from January 1, 2006, until a hospital admission for an ACSC, death, relocation outside Skåne, or December 31, 2016. Treating a new gout diagnosis (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, code M10) as a time-varying exposure, we used Cox proportional and additive hazard models to estimate the effects of gout on hospital admissions for ACSCs. We investigated the trajectory of hospital admissions for ACSCs from 3 years before to 3 years after gout diagnosis using generalized estimating equations and group-based trajectory modeling in an age-and sex-matched cohort study.

RESULTS

Gout was associated with a 41% increased rate of hospital admission for ACSCs (hazard ratio 1.41, 95% CI 1.35-1.47), corresponding to 121 (95% CI 104-138) more hospital admissions for ACSCs per 10,000 person-years compared with those without gout. Our trajectory analysis showed that higher rates of hospital admission for ACSCs among persons with gout were observed from 3 years before to 3 years after diagnosis, with the highest prevalence rate ratio (2.22, 95% CI 1.92-2.53) at the 3-month period after diagnosis. We identified 3 classes with distinct trajectories of hospital admissions for ACSCs among patients with gout: almost none (88.5%), low-rising (9.7%), and moderate-sharply rising (1.8%). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was the most important predictor of trajectory class membership.

CONCLUSION

Increased risk of hospital admissions for ACSCs in gout highlights the need for better management of the disease through outpatient care, especially among foreign-born, older patients with comorbidities.

The gap in life expectancy and lifespan inequality between Iran and neighbour countries: the contributions of avoidable causes of death

Background

Healthcare system and intersectoral public health policies play a crucial role in improving population health and reducing health inequalities. This study aimed to quantify their impact, operationalized as avoidable deaths, on the gap in life expectancy (LE) and lifespan inequality (LI) between Iran and three neighbour countries viz., Turkey, Qatar, and Kuwait in 2015–2016.

Methods

Annual data on population and causes of deaths by age and sex for Iran and three neighbour countries were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database for the period 2015–2016. A recently developed list by the OECD/Eurostat was used to identify avoidable causes of death (with an upper age limit of 75). The cross-country gaps in LE and LI (measured by standard deviation) were decomposed by age and cause of death using a continuous-change model.

Results

Iranian males and females had the second lowest and lowest LE, respectively, compared with their counterparts in the neighbour countries. On the other hand, the highest LIs in both sexes (by 2.3 to 4.5 years in males and 1.1 to 3.3 years in females) were observed in Iran. Avoidable causes contributed substantially to the LE and LI gap in both sexes with injuries and maternal/infant mortality represented the greatest contributions to the disadvantages in Iranian males and females, respectively.

Conclusions

Higher mortality rates in young Iranians led to a double burden of inequality –shorter LE and greater uncertainty at timing of death. Strengthening intersectoral public health policies and healthcare quality targeted at averting premature deaths, especially from injuries among younger people, can mitigate this double burden.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-022-01683-8.

The contributions of public health policies and healthcare quality to gender gap and country differences in life expectancy in the UK

Background

In many high-income countries, life expectancy (LE) has increased, with women outliving men. This gender gap in LE (GGLE) has been explained with biological factors, healthy behaviours, health status, and sociodemographic characteristics, but little attention has been paid to the role of public health policies that include/affect these factors. This study aimed to assess the contributions of avoidable causes of death, as a measure of public health policies and healthcare quality impacts, to the GGLE and its temporal changes in the UK. We also estimated the contributions of avoidable causes of death into the gap in LE between countries in the UK.

Methods

We obtained annual data on underlying causes of death by age and sex from the World Health Organization mortality database for the periods 2001–2003 and 2014–2016. We calculated LE at birth using abridged life tables. We applied Arriaga’s decomposition method to compute the age- and cause-specific contributions into the GGLE in each period and its changes between two periods as well as the cross-country gap in LE in the 2014–2016 period.

Results

Avoidable causes had greater contributions than non-avoidable causes to the GGLE in both periods (62% in 2001–2003 and 54% in 2014–2016) in the UK. Among avoidable causes, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) followed by injuries had the greatest contributions to the GGLE in both periods. On average, the GGLE across the UK narrowed by about 1.0 year between 2001–2003 and 2014–2016 and three avoidable causes of IHD, lung cancer, and injuries accounted for about 0.8 years of this reduction. England & Wales had the greatest LE for both sexes in 2014–2016. Among avoidable causes, injuries in men and lung cancer in women had the largest contributions to the LE advantage in England & Wales compared to Northern Ireland, while drug-related deaths compared to Scotland in both sexes.

Conclusion

With avoidable causes, particularly preventable deaths, substantially contributing to the gender and cross-country gaps in LE, our results suggest the need for behavioural changes by implementing targeted public health programmes, particularly targeting younger men from Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00271-2.

Osteoarthritis and risk of hospitalization for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions: a general population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between OA and risk of hospitalization for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (HACSCs).

METHODS

We included all individuals aged 40-85 years who resided in Skåne, Sweden on 31 December 2005 with at least one healthcare consultation during 1998-2005 (n = 515 256). We identified those with a main diagnosis of OA between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2016. People were followed from 1 January 2006 until an HACSC, death, relocation outside Skåne, or 31 December 2016 (whichever occurred first). OA status was treated as a time-varying covariate (those diagnosed before 1 January 2006 considered as exposed for whole study period). We assessed relative [hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox proportional hazard model] and absolute (hazard difference using additive hazard model) effects of OA on HACSCs adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Crude incidence rates of HACSCs were 239 (95% CI: 235, 242) and 151 (150, 152) per 10 000 person-years among OA and non-OA persons, respectively. The OA persons had an increased risk of HACSCs [HR (95% CI) 1.11 (1.09, 1.13)] and its subcategories of medical conditions except chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [HR (95% CI) 0.86 (0.81, 0.90)]. There were 20 (95% CI: 16, 24) more HACSCs per 10 000 person-years in OA compared with non-OA persons. While HRs for knee and hip OA were generally comparable, only knee OA was associated with increased risk of hospitalization for diabetes.

CONCLUSION

OA is associated with an increased risk of HACSCs, highlighting the urgent need to improve outpatient care for OA patients.

Variability in end-of-life healthcare use in patients with osteoarthritis: a population-based matched cohort study

PURPOSE

To investigate the patterns of healthcare use (HCU) at the last year of life in persons with osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

Using linked registers, we identified persons aged≥ 65 years who died during 2003-2014 and were resided in the Skåne region during 5-year prior to death. Among these, we randomly matched decedents with a principal OA diagnosis prior to the last year of life (OA cohort, n = 17,993) with up to 4 comparators without OA by sex, age at death, and year of death (n = 59,945). We measured monthly HCU for each decedent during last year of life and applied two-part regression models to estimate HCU attributable to OA. Group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was used to detect distinct trajectories of HCU within the OA cohort.

RESULTS

During last 12-month of life, each person with OA had, on average, 2.5 (95% CI 2.2, 2.7) excess healthcare consultations and 1.8 (95% CI 1.3, 2.2) more inpatient days than those without OA. While both cohorts observed increasing trends in HCU towards death, excess healthcare consultations attributable to OA declined and inpatient days increased as death approached. For both healthcare consultations and inpatient days, GBTM identified four distinct trajectory classes. While underlying cause of death and age were the most important predictors of class membership, the overall predictive accuracy was poor.

CONCLUSION

OA was associated with excess HCU especially hospital-based care during the last year of life. However, there seem to be distinct trajectory classes within the OA patient population.

The impact of first and second wave of COVID-19 on knee and hip surgeries in Sweden

PURPOSE

To investigate the impact of COVID-19 in Sweden on rates of knee and hip surgeries.

METHODS

We used healthcare data for the population of the southernmost region in Sweden (1.4 million inhabitants). We did an interrupted time-series analysis to estimate changes in rates and trends of joint replacements (JR), arthroscopies, and fracture surgeries for knee or hip in April-December 2020 compared to pre-COVID-19 levels adjusting for seasonal variations.

RESULTS

We found a drop of 54% (95% CI 42%; 68%) and 42% (95% CI 32%; 52%), respectively, in the rate of JRs and arthroscopies in April 2020 when compared to the counterfactual scenario. This was followed by an increase that brought the rates of JRs and arthroscopies back to their predicted levels also during the beginning of the second wave (November-December 2020). Acute fracture surgeries were largely unaffected, i.e. did not show any decrease as observed for the other surgeries.

CONCLUSIONS

In southern Sweden, we observed a marked decrease in elective knee and hip surgeries following the first wave of Covid-19. The rates remained close to normal during the beginning of the second wave suggesting that important elective surgeries for patients with end-stage osteoarthritis can still be offered despite an ongoing pandemic provided adequate routines and hospital resources.

AB0678 RATES OF SURGICAL PROCEDURES OF THE KNEE AND HIP DURING THE “FIRST WAVE” OF COVID 19 IN SWEDEN

Background:

Many countries imposed lockdowns in March 2020, in anticipation of the “first wave” of COVID-19 and the massive healthcare resources required to meet its acute medical needs. Sweden adopted a different strategy to contain the epidemic, opting for non-binding recommendations. Nonetheless, elective and acute surgical procedures in health care may have been affected.

Objectives:

To investigate the effect of the “first-wave” of COVID-19 and the government’s response in Sweden on the rates of total joint replacements (TJR), arthroscopies, and fracture surgeries of the knee and hip.

Methods:

We used register data for the entire population of Skåne, the southernmost region in Sweden with 1.3 million inhabitants (13% of the total Swedish population). We identified all residents aged ≥18 years who between 1st January 2015 and 31st November 2020 underwent any of the following surgical procedures of the knee or hip: TJR (TJR due to fracture excluded), arthroscopy, and surgery due to fracture (including TJR). To demarcate pre-event and post-event periods, we established a differentiation point corresponding to mid-March 2020, the timepoint at which the the Swedish Public Health Agency began recommending social distancing, working from home, distance learning for secondary schools and universities,. At the aggregate level, we modelled the number of surgeries per 10,000 adults from January 2015 up to September 2020. We did an interrupted time-series (ITSA) analysis using segmented ordinary least-squares regression to estimate changes in the levels and trends of surgical procedures compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, adjusting for seasonal variations. The month of March was treated as a “phase-in” period to give time for the new recommendations to be implemented. In addition, we estimated the absolute and relative difference (with its 95% confidence interval [CI]) between the predicted and the counterfactual scenario in the monthly number of surgeries from April 2020, where the counterfactual is the rate of surgery that would have been expected if COVID-19 had not happened. To account for the possibility that other co-occurring events may be responsible for the observed changes, we assessed changes in the number of surgeries due to fractures, which are normally treated as emergencies that cannot be cancelled or rescheduled, and thus should be less affected, at least by policies at the hospital level.

Results:

We identified a total of 20,831 TJRs, 12,156 arthroscopies and 15,041 fracture surgeries of the knee or hip over the study period. The monthly rate of surgeries and ITSAs are presented in Figure 1, with the pre-COVID period starting from February 2019 for readability (Figure 1). The results suggest that in April 2020, there was a decrease of 2.08 (95%CI 1.81; 2.35) TJRs per 10,000 adults which corresponds to a decrease of 74% (95%CI 65%; 85%) when compared to the counterfactual scenario. This was followed by a positive trend signifying a monthly increase of 0.36 (95%CI 0.31; 0.40) TJRs per 10,000 adults. The rate of arthroscopies followed a similar pattern with a decrease of 0.55 (95%CI 0.39; 0.71) arthroscopies per 10,000 adults in April, which corresponds to a 49% decrease (95%CI 28%; 63%) followed by a positive trend signifying a monthly increase of 0.11 (95%CI 0.07; 0.15) arthroscopies per 10,000 adults. The rate of surgery due to knee or hip fractures showed no decrease in April and was followed by a negative trend signifying a monthly decrease of 0.03 (95%CI 0.002; 0.04) surgeries per 10,000 adults.

Conclusion:

In Sweden, we observed a marked decrease in the number of typical elective knee and hip surgeries such as TJRs and arthroscopies, following the government’s response to Covid-19. We then observed a slow but steady recovery that brought the rates of procedures towards expected levels by Fall 2020, before the “second wave” hit the country. The number of acute fracture surgeries showed no sharp drop, instead showing a steady and slow decline potentially due to reduction in commuting and in physical activities linked to recommendations of social

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared

Socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality among patients with osteoarthritis in the Skåne region, Sweden

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between education and all-cause and cause-specific mortality among patients with osteoarthritis (OA) in comparison to an OA-free reference cohort.

METHODS

Using data from the Skåne healthcare register, we identified all residents aged ≥45 years in the region of Skåne, with doctor-diagnosed OA of peripheral joints between 1998 and 2013 (n=123,993). We created an age and sex-matched reference cohort without OA diagnosis (n=121,318). Subjects were followed until death, relocation outside Skåne, or the end of 2014. The relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII) were estimated by the Cox model and Aalen´s additive hazard model, respectively.

RESULTS

We found an inverse association between education and mortality. The magnitude of relative inequalities in all-cause mortality were comparable in the OA (RII 1.53, 95% CI:1.46, 1.61) and reference cohorts (RII:1.54, 95% CI:1.47, 1.62). The absolute inequalities were smaller in the OA (SII 937 all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years, 95% CI:811, 1063) compared with the reference cohort (SII 1265, 95% CI:1109, 1421). Cardiovascular mortality contributed more to the absolute inequalities in the OA than in the reference cohort (60.1% vs. 48.1%) while the opposite was observed for cancer mortality (8.5% vs. 22.3%).

CONCLUSION

We found higher all-cause and cause-specific mortality in OA patients with lower education. The observed inequalities in the OA cohort reflect the inequalities in the population at large. The greater burden of cardiovascular diseases in OA patients suggests that proper management of cardiovascular risk factors in OA patients is important.

Trajectory of Healthcare Resource Utilization in Giant Cell Arteritis: A Population-based Study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the healthcare resource utilization (HRU) in patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA) compared with the general population in southern Sweden.

METHODS

The study sample comprised 653 patients with GCA along with 10 age-, sex-, and residency area-matched reference subjects per patient. Data on public and private healthcare consultations and hospitalizations were extracted from the Skåne Healthcare Register. We assessed trajectories of primary and specialist healthcare visits, as well as hospital admissions and inpatient days from 3 years before through 5 years after the date of GCA diagnosis for patients and matched references. HRU was analyzed using generalized estimating equations adjusted for sex, age at the index year, calendar year of diagnosis, education, income, marital status, place of birth, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. Inverse probability weighting was used to account for dropout during study.

RESULTS

Patients with GCA had higher rates of healthcare visits than the references from the year before GCA diagnosis and up to 4 years after diagnosis, with the largest relative (rate ratio 1.85, 95% CI 1.68-2.05) and absolute (mean difference 10.2, 95% CI 8.1-12.3 visits per person) differences in the year of diagnosis. Similar trajectories were observed for primary and specialist healthcare visits. For hospital admissions and inpatient days, the differences disappeared 1 year after diagnosis date.

CONCLUSION

Patients with GCA utilized healthcare services at a significantly higher rate than the reference population. The increased utilization among Swedish patients with GCA was evident 1 year before and prolonged up to 4 years after diagnosis date.

Trajectory of excess healthcare consultations, medication use, and work disability in newly diagnosed knee osteoarthritis: a matched longitudinal register-based study

PURPOSE

To estimate the excess healthcare use and work disability attributable to knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the first 5 years following diagnosis.

METHODS

Among individual aged 40-80 years who resided in Skåne on 31^st December 2008, we identified those with a main diagnosis of knee OA during 2009-2014 and no previous diagnosis of any OA from 1998 (n = 16,888). We created a comparison cohort matched (1:1) by sex, age, and municipality from individuals with no OA diagnosis (at any site) during 1998-2016. We compared healthcare use and net disability days for 60 months following diagnosis between the two groups. We applied a survival-adjusted regression technique controlling for sociodemographic characteristics as well as pre-diagnosis outcome and comorbidity.

RESULTS

The estimated 5-year incremental effects of knee OA per-patient were 16.8 (95% CI: 15.8, 17.7) healthcare consultations, 0.7 (0.4, 1.1) inpatient days, 420 (372, 490) defined daily dose of prescribed medications, and 21.8 (15.2, 30.0) net disability days. Primary care consultations constituted about 73% of the excess healthcare consultations. Most of these incremental effects occurred in the first year after diagnosis. Better survival in the knee OA group accounted for 0.7 (95% CI: 0.5, 0.8) and 1.4 (0.7, 2.6) of the excess healthcare consultations and net disability days, respectively. Both estimated total and incremental resources use were generally greater for women than men with knee OA.

CONCLUSION

Knee OA was associated with considerable excess healthcare use and work disability independent of pre-diagnosis resources use, comorbidity, and sociodemographic characteristics.

Probabilistic Quantification of Bias to Combine the Strengths of Population-Based Register Data and Clinical Cohorts-Studying Mortality in Osteoarthritis

We propose combining population-based register data with a nested clinical cohort to correct misclassification and unmeasured confounding through probabilistic quantification of bias. We have illustrated this approach by estimating the association between knee osteoarthritis and mortality. We used the Swedish Population Register to include all persons resident in the Skåne region in 2008 and assessed whether they had osteoarthritis using data from the Skåne Healthcare Register. We studied mortality through year 2017 by estimating hazard ratios. We used data from the Malmö Osteoarthritis Study (MOA), a small cohort study from Skåne, to derive bias parameters for probabilistic quantification of bias, to correct the hazard ratio estimate for differential misclassification of the knee osteoarthritis diagnosis and confounding from unmeasured obesity. We included 292,000 persons in the Skåne population and 1,419 from the MOA study. The adjusted association of knee osteoarthritis with all-cause mortality in the MOA sample had a hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80, 1.52) and was thus inconclusive. The naive association in the Skåne population had a hazard ratio of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.98), while the bias-corrected estimate was 1.02 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.52), suggesting high uncertainty in bias correction. Combining population-based register data with clinical cohorts provides more information than using either data source separately.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of a national guideline on use of knee arthroscopy: An interrupted time-series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of the Swedish health authority recommendation against the use of knee arthroscopy in patients aged ≥40 years with knee osteoarthritis (OA).

DESIGN

Interrupted time series analysis.

SETTING

Public health care in Skåne region.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥40 years who underwent knee arthroscopy from January 2010 to December 2015.

INTERVENTION(S)

National guideline's recommendation against the use of knee arthroscopy in patients with knee OA.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

1) proportion of patients aged ≥40 years with a main diagnosis of Knee OA and/or degenerative meniscal lesions (DML) who underwent knee arthroscopy, and 2) overall knee arthroscopy rate per 100,000 Skåne population aged ≥40 years.

RESULTS

A total of 6,155 knee arthroscopy were performed among people aged ≥40 years during study period. Of 42,044 patients with Knee OA/DML, 3,728 had knee arthroscopy. The recommendation was associated with reductions in the use of knee arthroscopy and two years after the recommendation, there was a reduction of 28.6% (95% CI: 9.3, 47.8) and 34.7% (23.9, 45.4) in proportion of Knee OA/DML patients with knee arthroscopy and the overall knee arthroscopy rate, respectively, relative to that expected if pre-recommendation trend continued. Our sensitivity analysis showed that the use of total knee replacement was stable over the study period.

CONCLUSION

The national recommendation was associated with reduction in use of knee arthroscopy in public health care in southern Sweden. However, still 4.5% of these patients underwent knee arthroscopy in 2015 implying that more efforts are required to achieve the recommended target.

Intersectional Inequalities and Individual Heterogeneity in Chronic Rheumatic Diseases: An Intersectional Multilevel Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine how intersections of multiple sociodemographic variables explain the individual heterogeneity in risk of being diagnosed with any of following chronic rheumatic diseases (CRDs): osteoarthritis (OA), gout, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), or spondyloarthritis (SpA).

METHODS

We identified individuals ages 40-65 years residing in Skåne, Sweden by December 31, 2013 and having done so from January 1, 2000 (n = 342,542). We used a Skåne health care register to identify those with a diagnosis of the CRD of interest between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2015, with no previous such diagnosis during 2000-2013. We created 144 intersectional social strata (ISS) using categories of age, sex, education, income, civil status, and immigration. For individuals nested within ISS, we applied multilevel logistic regression models to estimate the variance partition coefficient (VPC) as a measure of discriminatory accuracy of the ISS and the predicted absolute risks and 95% credible intervals for each stratum.

RESULTS

Overall, 3.5%, 0.5%, 0.2%, and 0.2% of the study population were diagnosed with OA, gout, RA, and SpA, respectively. The VPC ranged from 16.2% for gout to 0.5% for SpA. Sex explained the largest proportion of between-strata variation in risk of RA, gout, and SpA, while age was the most important factor for OA. The most between-strata differences in risk of these CRDs were due to the additive main effects.

CONCLUSION

Despite meaningful between-strata inequalities in the risk of being diagnosed with CRDs (except SpA), there were substantial within-strata heterogeneities that remain unexplained. There was limited evidence of intersectional interaction effects.

Educational inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality among people with gout: a register-based matched cohort study in southern Sweden

Background

Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis with a rising prevalence around the globe. While educational inequalities in incidence and prevalence of gout have been reported, no previous study investigated educational inequality in mortality among people with gout. The aim of this study was to assess absolute and relative educational inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality among people with gout in comparison with an age- and sex-matched cohort free of gout in southern Sweden.

Methods

We identified all residents aged ≥30 years of Skåne region with doctor-diagnosed gout (ICD-10 code M10, n = 24,877) during 1998–2013 and up to 4 randomly selected age- and sex-matched comparators free of gout (reference cohort, n = 99,504). These were followed until death, emigration, or end of 2014. We used additive hazards models and Cox regression adjusted for age, sex, marital status, and country of birth to estimate slope and relative indices of inequality (SII/RII). Three cause-of-death attribution approaches were considered for RII estimation: “underlying cause”, “any mention”, and “weighted multiple-cause”.

Results

Gout patients with the lowest education had 1547 (95% CI: 1001, 2092) more deaths per 100,000 person-years compared with those with the highest education. These absolute inequalities were larger than in the reference population (1255, 95% CI: 1038, 1472). While the contribution of cardiovascular (cancer) mortality to these absolute inequalities was greater (smaller) in men with gout than those without, the opposite was seen among women. Relative inequality in all-cause mortality was smaller in gout (RII 1.29 [1.18, 1.41]) than in the reference population (1.46 [1.38, 1.53]). The weighted multiple-cause approach generally led to larger RIIs than the underlying cause approach.

Conclusions

Our register-based matched cohort study showed that low level of education was associated with increased mortality among gout patients. Although the magnitude of relative inequality was smaller in people with gout compared with those without, the absolute inequalities were greater reflecting a major mortality burden among those with lower education.