Identifying weak signals to prepare for uncertainty in the energy sector

This study aims to prepare the energy sector for uncertainty using a foresight tool known as weak signals. Weak signals (subtle signs of emerging issues with significant impact potential) are often overlooked during strategic planning due to their inherent predictive uncertainty. However, the value does not lie in precise forecasting but in broadening the consideration of future possibilities. By proactively monitoring and addressing these otherwise neglected developments, stakeholders can gain early awareness of threats and opportunities and enhance their resilience, adaptability, and innovation. A panel of technology experts identified eight weak signals in this study: 1) growing mistrust and local grid security measures, 2) consumer reactions to overly prescriptive policies, 3) long-term forecasting errors for thin-margin projects, 4) emergence of variable power industries, and 5) establishment of intercontinental transmission precedence; including three potential 'wild cards' requiring proactive mitigation: 6) escalating electrical generation dependence on continued imports, 7) a new threat surpassing climate change, and 8) mass deployment of low-emissions technology triggering a runaway loss of social license. Political factors were the predominant source of uncertainty, as decisions can suddenly transform the energy landscape. Economic, technological, and social factors followed closely behind, generally through the emergence of new industries and behavioural responses. While environmental and legal factors were less frequent, stakeholders should still adopt a holistic approach, as the signals were found to be highly interconnected. Organisations should also assess their local context when applying these findings and continuously update and respond to their own list of weak signals.

Phase I/II study of vaccination with dendritic-like leukaemia cells for the immunotherapy of acute myeloid leukaemia

Twenty-two patients with acute myeloid leukaemia were recruited into a phase I/II clinical trial investigating the vaccination of patients in complete remission (CR) with autologous dendritic-like leukaemia cells (DLLC). At trial entry, leukaemia cells were harvested and tested for their ability to undergo cytokine-induced dendritic cell differentiation. Patients were then treated with intensive chemotherapy. Five patients achieved both CR and had leukaemia cells that successfully underwent differentiation and therefore proceeded to vaccination. Four escalating doses of DLLC were administered weekly by subcutaneous injection. Vaccination was generally well tolerated although one patient developed extensive eczema and an increased antinuclear factor titre possibly indicating induction of autoimmunity. Development of anti-leukaemic T-cell responses was assessed by enzyme-linked immunospot analysis of gamma-interferon secreting T lymphocytes and by human leucocyte antigen tetramer analysis for WT1-specific T cells. Increases in anti-leukaemic T-cell responses were demonstrated in four patients, but only two of the five remained in remission more than 12 months postvaccination. The study has demonstrated that generation of DLLC is feasible in only a subgroup of patients and is currently neither broadly applicable or clinically effective.

Factor V Leiden, prothrombin 20210G-->A and the MTHFR C677T mutations in childhood stroke

Ischaemic stroke is a rare occurrence in children and in a proportion of cases the aetiology remains unknown. We have investigated the role of thrombophilia in the aetiology of this condition. Of 50 cases identified at two centres, 37 were available for detailed haematological analysis. No cases were identified with deficiencies of antithrombin, protein C or protein S. One case had elevated IgG anticardiolipin antibodies at low titre. The prevalence of the prothrombin 20210 G-->A mutation, factor V Leiden (FVL) mutation and the C677T mutation in the MTHFR gene was compared in cases to that observed in random unselected cord blood controls. The odds ratio for stroke was not significantly increased in carriers of the prothrombin mutation (OR 1.2; 95% CI 0.1-10.7), FVL (OR 2.5; 95% CI 0.5-13.5), or the C677T mutation (OR 1.7; 95% CI 0.6-4.5). Our findings suggest that thrombophilia may not play a significant role in the aetiology of stroke in children, although a large prospective study is required to investigate this area further.

Factor V Leiden, prothrombin 20210G-->A and the MTHFR C677T mutations in childhood stroke

Ischaemic stroke is a rare occurrence in children and in a proportion of cases the aetiology remains unknown. We have investigated the role of thrombophilia in the aetiology of this condition. Of 50 cases identified at two centres, 37 were available for detailed haematological analysis. No cases were identified with deficiencies of antithrombin, protein C or protein S. One case had elevated IgG anticardiolipin antibodies at low titre. The prevalence of the prothrombin 20210 G-->A mutation, factor V Leiden (FVL) mutation and the C677T mutation in the MTHFR gene was compared in cases to that observed in random unselected cord blood controls. The odds ratio for stroke was not significantly increased in carriers of the prothrombin mutation (OR 1.2; 95% CI 0.1-10.7), FVL (OR 2.5; 95% CI 0.5-13.5), or the C677T mutation (OR 1.7; 95% CI 0.6-4.5). Our findings suggest that thrombophilia may not play a significant role in the aetiology of stroke in children, although a large prospective study is required to investigate this area further.

The cytostatic effects of alpha-interferon may be mediated by transforming growth factor-beta

There is some evidence to suggest that transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) mediates the cytostatic effects of the anti-oestrogen tamoxifen. In this study we have demonstrated that alpha-interferon has a significant anti-proliferative effect on the oestrogen receptor-positive human breast cancer cell line ZR-75. There is decreased phenotypic expression of the oestrogen receptors (to about 30% of control values) and increased TGF-beta mRNA. Under the growth conditions used here, ZR-75 cells had approximately 5800 TGF-beta binding sites per cell, with an apparent dissociation constant of 70 pm, and we have shown that the anti-proliferative effects of alpha-interferon can be reduced by 60% by co-treating the cells with a TGF-beta polyclonal antibody. The cytostatic effects of alpha-interferon may therefore be mediated by TGF-beta in this human breast cancer cell line.

A novel in vitro assay for murine haematopoietic stem cells

Study of the biology of haematopoietic stem cells is crucially dependent on the availability of suitable in vitro assays. Existing assays have suffered from the fact that they detect small subcompartments of the total stem cell compartment. This limits experiments where it is required to assay a high proportion of stem cells, e.g. the enumeration of stem cell numbers under varying conditions or the identification and purification of stem cell regulators. We describe an in vitro assay which shows macroscopic colony formation and limited self-renewal capacity in vitro. The detected cell (CFU-A) has a low cycling status in normal bone marrow (NBM) and responds to known stem cell regulators. The incidence (100-200 per 10(5) in NBM), the proliferative characteristics under stress and some of the physical properties are similar to stem cells detected by colony formation after transplantation into lethally irradiated recipients (CFU-S). These data indicate that our assay detects a high proportion of haematopoietic stem cells in vitro. This will facilitate experiments on stem cell behaviour which have previously been difficult to conduct.

The effect of stem cell proliferation regulators demonstrated with an in vitro assay

Spleen colony formation after transplantation of bone marrow cells into irradiated mice has been used as an assay for hematopoietic stem cells (CFU-S), but has serious limitations intrinsic to an in vivo assay. In this report we describe experiments using an in vitro clonogenic assay that is especially suitable for studies of stem cell regulation as defined growth factors and normal untreated bone marrow can be used. We have demonstrated that the colony-forming cells have proliferative properties in common with CFU-S and respond to specific proliferation regulators previously detected using the spleen colony assay.

Sequence divergence of nucleus-confined polyadenylated ribonucleic acids in Friend erythroleukemic cells

For determination of whether any potential protein-coding RNA sequences are confined to the nucleus in Friend cells, a comparison has been made of the sequence divergence of polyadenylated RNA molecules which are either nucleus confined or transported to the cytoplasm. Both unique DNA and cDNA probes enriched in such sequences were reacted with a large excess of mouse or rat DNA. The extent of hybridization and the thermal stability of hybrids formed under various stringency conditions were used as a measure of the amount of sequence divergence which had taken place. The results confirmed that messenger sequences are relatively conserved during evolution. Furthermore, experiments involving both unique DNA probes representative of the full length of nucleus-confined RNA molecules and cDNA probes complementary to their poly(A)-adjacent fragments indicated that the polyadenylated nucleus-confined sequences have, on average, diverged during evolution much more than mRNA sequences. The vast majority of these sequences therefore probably do not represent potential mRNAs which are confined to the nucleus and subject to posttranscriptional control in a manner similar to those which have been demonstrated in sea urchins [Wold, B., Klein, W. H., Hough-Evans, B. R., Britten, R. J., & Davidson, E. H. (1978) Cell (Cambridge, Mass.) 14, 941-950].

EEG asymmetry in educationally handicapped children

Bilaterally homologous parietal and temporal EEGs were recorded from two groups of educationally handicapped children while the subjects (Ss) rested with eyes open or closed or performed in simple tasks designed to differentially activate the two hemispheres (reading by Ss, reading to Ss, draw a picture). A 'dyslexic' but not dysphasic group showed a reversal of theta asymmetry from eyes closed to eyes open (L less than R to L greater than R). This difference between groups was reflected most at the parietal placement. Theta in the parietal lead changed in accordance with expectations from reading to drawing (reduction of the R/L ratio), but that pattern did not occur at the temporal lead in 'dyslexics'. A discriminant analysis on theta power correctly classified 20 of the 22 children.