Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available.

METHODS

We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution.

FINDINGS

In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R0 when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain).

INTERPRETATION

Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised.

FUNDING

EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Reporting delays of chikungunya cases during the 2017 outbreak in Lazio region, Italy

BACKGROUND

Emerging arboviral diseases in Europe pose a challenge due to difficulties in detecting and diagnosing cases during the initial circulation of the pathogen. Early outbreak detection enables public health authorities to take effective actions to reduce disease transmission. Quantification of the reporting delays of cases is vital to plan and assess surveillance and control strategies. Here, we provide estimates of reporting delays during an emerging arboviral outbreak and indications on how delays may have impacted onward transmission.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Using descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meyer curves we analyzed case reporting delays (the period between the date of symptom onset and the date of notification to the public health authorities) during the 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreak. We further investigated the effect of outbreak detection on reporting delays by means of a Cox proportional hazard model. We estimated that the overall median reporting delay was 15.5 days, but this was reduced to 8 days after the notification of the first case. Cases with symptom onset after outbreak detection had about a 3.5 times higher reporting rate, however only 3.6% were notified within 24h from symptom onset. Remarkably, we found that 45.9% of identified cases developed symptoms before the detection of the outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

These results suggest that efforts should be undertaken to improve the early detection and identification of arboviral cases, as well as the management of vector species to mitigate the impact of long reporting delays.

How habitat factors affect an Aedes mosquitoes driven outbreak at temperate latitudes: The case of the Chikungunya virus in Italy

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases in temperate areas are not frequent, and limited in number of cases. We investigate the associations between habitat factors and temperature on individuals' risk of chikungunya (CHIKV) in a non-endemic area by spatially analyzing the data from the 2017 Italian outbreak.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We adopted a case-control study design to analyze the association between land-cover variables, temperature, and human population density with CHIKV cases. The observational unit was the area, at different scales, surrounding the residence of each CHIKV notified case. The statistical analysis was conducted considering the whole dataset and separately for the resort town of Anzio and the metropolitan city of Rome, which were the two main foci of the outbreak. In Rome, a higher probability for the occurrence of CHIKV cases is associated with lower temperature (OR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61-0.85) and with cells with higher vegetation coverage and human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.05). In Anzio, CHIKV case occurrence was positively associated with human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.06) but not with habitat factors or temperature.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

Using temperature, human population density and vegetation coverage data as drives for CHIKV transmission, our estimates could be instrumental in assessing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of experiencing arboviral diseases in non-endemic temperate areas.

Real-life use of tocilizumab with or without corticosteroid in hospitalized patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia: A retrospective cohort study

Objective

To evaluate the effectiveness of Tocilizumab (with or without corticosteroids) in a real-life context among moderate-to-severe COVID-19 patients hospitalized at the Infectious Diseases ward of two hospitals in Lazio region, Italy, during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Method

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia to assess the influence of tocilizumab (with or without corticosteroids) on: 1) primary composite outcome: risk for death/invasive mechanical ventilation/ICU-transfer at 14 days from hospital admission; 2) secondary outcome: COVID-related death only. Both outcomes were also assessed at 28 days and restricted to baseline more severe cases. We also evaluated the safety of tocilizumab.

Results

Overall, 412 patients were recruited, being affected by mild (6.8%), moderate (66.3%) or severe (26.9%) COVID-19 at baseline. The median participant’ age was 63 years, 56.5% were men, the sum of comorbidities was 1.34 (±1.44), and the median time from symptom onset to hospital admission was 7 [3–10] days. Patients were subdivided in 4 treatment groups: standard of care (SoC) only (n = 172), SoC plus corticosteroid (n = 65), SoC plus tocilizumab (n = 50), SoC plus tocilizumab and corticosteroid (n = 125). Twenty-six (6.3%) patients underwent intubation, and 37 (9%) COVID-related deaths were recorded. After adjusting for several factors, multivariate analysis showed that tocilizumab (with or without corticosteroids) was associated to improved primary and secondary outcomes at 14 days, and at 28-days only when tocilizumab administered without corticosteroid. Among more severe cases the protective effect of tocilizumab (± corticosteroids) was observed at both time-points. No safety concerns were recorded.

Conclusion

Although contrasting results from randomized clinical trials to date, in our experience tocilizumab was a safe and efficacious therapeutic option for patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Its efficacy was improved by the concomitant administration of corticosteroids in patients affected by severe-COVID-19 pneumonia at baseline.

A global association between Covid-19 cases and airborne particulate matter at regional level

Evidences of an association between air pollution and Covid-19 infections are mixed and inconclusive. We conducted an ecological analysis at regional scale of long-term exposure to air-borne particle matter and spread of Covid-19 cases during the first wave of epidemics. Global air pollution and climate data were calculated from satellite earth observation data assimilated into numerical models at 10 km resolution. Main outcome was defined as the cumulative number of cases of Covid-19 in the 14 days following the date when > 10 cumulative cases were reported. Negative binomial mixed effect models were applied to estimate the associations between the outcome and long-term exposure to air pollution at the regional level (PM10, PM2.5), after adjusting for relevant regional and country level covariates and spatial correlation. In total we collected 237,749 Covid-19 cases from 730 regions, 63 countries and 5 continents at May 30, 2020. A 10 μg/m3 increase of pollution level was associated with 8.1% (95% CI 5.4%, 10.5%) and 11.5% (95% CI 7.8%, 14.9%) increases in the number of cases in a 14 days window, for PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. We found an association between Covid-19 cases and air pollution suggestive of a possible causal link among particulate matter levels and incidence of COVID-19.

Differential induction of type I and III interferon genes in the upper respiratory tract of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

The natural course of type I and III interferon (IFN) response in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients needs to be better defined. We showed that type I/III IFNs, IFN-regulatory factor 7 (IRF7), and IFN stimulated genes (ISGs), are highly expressed in the oropharyngeal cells of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients compared to healthy controls. Notably, the subgroup of critically-ill patients that required invasive mechanical ventilation had a general decrease in expression of IFN/ISG genes. Heterogeneous patterns of IFN-I/III response in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients may be associated to COVID-19 severity.

Short-term effects of particulate matter on cardiovascular morbidity in Italy: a national analysis

AIMS

We aimed at investigating the relationship between particulate matter (PM) and daily admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) at national level in Italy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Daily numbers of cardiovascular hospitalizations were collected for all 8084 municipalities of Italy, in the period 2013-2015. A satellite-based spatiotemporal model was used to estimate daily PM10 (inhalable particles) and PM2.5 (fine particles) concentrations at 1-km2 resolution. Multivariate Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the association between daily PM and cardiovascular admissions. Flexible functions were estimated to explore the shape of the associations at low PM concentrations, also in non-urban areas. We analysed 2 154 810 acute hospitalizations for CVDs (25% stroke, 24% ischaemic heart diseases, 22% heart failure, and 5% atrial fibrillation). Relative increases of total cardiovascular admissions, per 10 µg/m3 variation in PM10 and PM2.5 at lag 0-5 (average of last 6 days since admission), were 0.55% (95% confidence intervals: 0.32%, 0.77%) and 0.97% (0.67%, 1.27%), respectively. The corresponding estimates for heart failure were 1.70% (1.28%, 2.13%) and 2.66% (2.09%, 3.23%). We estimated significant effects of PM10 and PM2.5 also on ischaemic heart diseases, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, and ischaemic stroke. Associations were similar between less and more urbanized areas, and persisted even at low concentrations, e.g. below WHO guidelines.

CONCLUSION

PM was robustly associated with peaks in daily cardiovascular admissions, especially for heart failure, both in large cities and in less urbanized areas of Italy. Current WHO Air Quality Guidelines for PM10 and PM2.5 are not sufficient to protect public health.

Effect of Urban Wastewater Discharge on the Abundance of Antibiotic Resistance Genes and Antibiotic-Resistant Escherichia coli in Two Italian Rivers

Background: Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are microbial factories aimed to reduce the amount of nutrients and pathogenic microorganisms in the treated wastewater before its discharge into the environment. We studied the impact of urban WWTP effluents on the abundance of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli (AR-E. coli) in the last stretch of two rivers (Arrone and Tiber) in Central Italy that differ in size and flow volume. Methods: Water samples were collected in three seasons upstream and downstream of the WWTP, at the WWTP outlet, and at sea sites near the river mouth, and analyzed for the abundance of ARGs by qPCR and AR-E. coli using cultivation followed by disk diffusion assays. Results: For all studied genes (16S rRNA, intI1, sul1, ermB, blaTEM, tetW and qnrS), absolute concentrations were significantly higher in the Tiber than in the Arrone at all sampling sites, despite their collection date, but the prevalence of target ARGs within bacterial communities in both rivers was similar. The absolute concentrations of most ARGs were also generally higher in the WWTP effluent with median levels between log 4 and log 6 copies per ml but did not show differences along the studied stretches of rivers. Statistically significant site effect was found for E. coli phenotypic resistance to tetracycline and ciprofloxacin in the Arrone but not in the Tiber. Conclusions: In both rivers, diffuse or point pollution sources other than the studied WWTP effluents may account for the observed resistance pattern, although the Arrone appears as more sensitive to the wastewater impact considering its lower flow volume.

Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

The spatial spread of many mosquito-borne diseases occurs by focal spread at the scale of a few hundred meters and over longer distances due to human mobility. The relative contributions of different spatial scales for transmission of chikungunya virus require definition to improve outbreak vector control recommendations.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a large chikungunya outbreak mediated by the mosquito Aedes albopictus in the Lazio region, Italy, consisting of 414 reported human cases between June and November 2017. Using dates of symptom onset, geographic coordinates of residence, and information from epidemiological questionnaires, we reconstructed transmission chains related to that outbreak.

RESULTS

Focal spread (within 1 km) accounted for 54.9% of all cases, 15.8% were transmitted at a local scale (1-15 km) and the remaining 29.3% were exported from the main areas of chikungunya circulation in Lazio to longer distances such as Rome and other geographical areas. Seventy percent of focal infections (corresponding to 38% of the total 414 cases) were transmitted within a distance of 200 m (the buffer distance adopted by the national guidelines for insecticide spraying). Two main epidemic clusters were identified, with a radius expanding at a rate of 300-600 m per month. The majority of exported cases resulted in either sporadic or no further transmission in the region.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence suggest that human mobility contributes to seeding a relevant number of secondary cases and new foci of transmission over several kilometers. Reactive vector control based on current guidelines might allow a significant number of secondary clusters in untreated areas, especially if the outbreak is not detected early. Existing policies and guidelines for control during outbreaks should recommend the prioritization of preventive measures in neighboring territories with known mobility flows to the main areas of transmission.

A comparative analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreaks and implication for public health response

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne infection that is emerging in temperate areas of Europe, following the expansion of one of its vector species, Aedes albopictus. Although CHIKV fever is a self-limiting disease, with a clinical syndrome often resolving within few days, it can also cause severe sequelae, including chronic polyarthralgia lasting up to 5 years. Additionally, CHIKV outbreaks may limit blood bank donations, adding economic burden on the health system. Public health authorities in Europe need to increase their preparedness against this emerging threat. Two large CHIKV outbreaks occurred in Italy in 2007 and 2017, with hundreds of cases and significant geographical spread. The aim of this paper is to review and compare the 2 Italian outbreaks in terms of available estimates of key epidemiological features, patient clinical presentation, virus and immunological characteristics, and public health response. Recommendations for public health and future directions for research are also discussed and highlighted.

In Europe, vector-borne diseases have been increasing during the last decades. CHIKV is an example of a neglected emerging disease transmitted by the alien mosquitoes Ae. albopictus that caused 2 large outbreaks in Italy in 2007 and 2017. It is important to compare the main epidemiological, clinical, virological, and immunological features, as well as the public health responses, to increase preparedness to face future outbreaks.

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices towards the Tiger Mosquito Aedes Albopictus. A Questionnaire Based Survey in Lazio Region (Italy) before the 2017 Chikungunya Outbreak

The invasion of Aedes albopictus has played a major role in the resurgence of mosquito-borne diseases in Italy, generating the two largest chikungunya outbreaks in Europe (2007, 2017). Knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) are important in order to prevent Aedes-borne disease transmission, yet so far they have not been assessed. To this scope we used multivariate logistic regression to investigate KAP of citizen-to-Aedes ecology and transmitted diseases. Data were collated by a structured questionnaire (18 questions) in 2016. Participants were selected in the Lazio region from members of native populations and two resident communities (RC) originating from the Indian subcontinent where Aedes-transmitted diseases are endemic. Results showed that compared to Italians, RC respondents had a higher knowledge and concern of Aedes-transmitted diseases (Odds Ratio = 2.61 (95%CI: 1.03–6.05); OR = 3.13 (2.15–4.65)) as well as their life cycles (OR = 2.49 (1.75–3.56); OR = 9.04 (6.22–13.66)). In contrast, they perceived a lower nuisance due to the presence of Ae. albopictus (OR = 0.2 (0.13–0.32); OR = 0.55 (0.38–0.78). These findings suggest that citizens in the Lazio region are not prepared to face a potential outbreak of arboviruses and further efforts should be made to increase knowledge, awareness and best practices.

Efficacy of acoustic waves in preventing Streptococcus mutans adhesion on dental unit water line

BACKGROUND

The quality and health safety of water used for refrigeration and flushing of the handpieces, water-syringes and other components of dental units is of considerable importance. Water crosses these devices by a system of intersected small plastic tubes (about 2 mm of diameter), named dental unit water lines (DUWLs). DUWLs may be heavily colonized by many bacterial species in a planktonic phase, adherent or in biofilm lifestyle, resulting in a potential risk of infection, not only for all professionals who routinely use these devices, but also for occasional-patients, especially immunocompromised patients. Contamination of DUWLs can be prevented or reduced with the use of disinfectants, but the eradication of microorganisms, especially which those are adherent or living in biofilm lifestyle on the inner surfaces of DUWLs is challenging and often, the normal methods of water disinfection are not effective. Moreover, disinfectants routinely used to disinfect DUWLs may alter the bond strength of the dentine bonding agent used for restorative practice in dentistry.

STUDY DESIGN

To identify an innovative and alternative strategy, able to prevent bacterial adhesion to DUWL surfaces through a physical approach, which is more effective in overcoming the problem of DUWL contamination and the risk of infection compared to the standard methods already in use. In this pilot study we tested a member of the oral streptococci family, that is not a component of the biofilm detected on the walls of DUWL, but is frequently detected in water samples from DUWL, due to human fluid retraction during dental therapy. Namely, the pathogenic bacterial species Streptococcus mutans.

METHODS

We employ elastic acoustic waves at high-energy in preventing S. mutans adhesion to the inner walls of an experimental water circuit reproducing a DUWLs. To stress the capability of acoustic waves to interfere with bacterial adhesion also in extreme conditions, a high S. mutans contamination load was adopted.

RESULTS

We observe a significant decrease of adherent bacteria exposed to acoustic waves treatment respect to control.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the effectiveness of acoustic waves in counteracting the adhesion of S. mutans to the inner walls of an experimental water circuit reproducing a DUWL, opening up new prospects for future practical applications. The interesting results, so far obtained, require an in-depth analysis of the methods regarding both the various bacterial species involved and the infective charges to be used.

The potential human exposure to antibiotic resistant-Escherichia coli through recreational water

It is important that bathing water sites are free as possible from antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) to prevent the spread of difficult to treat infections throughout the population. This study examines the possible human exposure to antibiotic resistant Escherichia coli (AR-E. coli) through recreational activities at two different bathing water sites located near wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). A quantitative risk assessment model was created to model the pathway of the AR-E. coli from the WWTPs effluent water through to the bathing water sites. Both sampling data and data from scientific literature were used. The main steps considered for the model were: the dilution and decay of the AR-E. coli from the WWTPs effluent water into the river; the dilution of the river into the bathing water sites and the human exposure to AR-E. coli through recreational activities at the bathing water sites (as a result of water ingestion). The results show the mean predicted human exposure levels ranged between 0.45 and 345.09 cfu/100 ml. A back calculation method determined that in accordance with the European Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC) (BWD) to be considered "poor" water quality, the concentration of AR-E. coli in WWTP effluent water would need to exceed 2.45 log cfu/ml at site 1 and exceed 2.71 log cfu/ml at site 2. This study provides valuable information for regulatory bodies and policy makers on the possible human exposure levels to AR-E. coli and the maximum permissible concentrations in WWTP effluent water to ensure compliance with relevant bathing water legislation.

The Ebola virus disease outbreak in Tonkolili district, Sierra Leone: a retrospective analysis of the Viral Haemorrhagic Fever surveillance system, July 2014-June 2015

In Sierra Leone, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak occurred with substantial differences between districts with someone even not affected. To monitor the epidemic, a community event-based surveillance system was set up, collecting data into the Viral Haemorrhagic Fever (VHF) database. We analysed the VHF database of Tonkolili district to describe the epidemiology of the EVD outbreak during July 2014-June 2015 (data availability). Multivariable analysis was used to identify risk factors for EVD, fatal EVD and barriers to healthcare access, by comparing EVD-positive vs. EVD-negative cases. Key-performance indicators for EVD response were also measured. Overall, 454 EVD-positive cases were reported. At multivariable analysis, the odds of EVD was higher among those reporting contacts with an EVD-positive/suspected case (odds ratio (OR) 2.47; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.44-2.50; P < 0.01) and those attending funeral (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01-1.04; P < 0.01). EVD cases from Kunike chiefdom had a lower odds of death (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.08-0.44; P < 0.01) and were also more likely to be hospitalised (OR 2.34; 95% CI 1.23-4.57; P < 0.05). Only 25.1% of alerts were generated within 1 day from symptom onset. EVD preparedness and response plans for Tonkolili should include social-mobilisation activities targeting Ebola/knowledge-attitudes-practice during funeral attendance, to avoid contact with suspected cases and to increase awareness on EVD symptoms, in order to reduce delays between symptom onset to alert generation and consequently improve the outbreak-response promptness.

Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017

A large chikungunya outbreak is ongoing in Italy, with a main cluster in the Anzio coastal municipality. With preliminary epidemiological data, and a transmission model using mosquito abundance and biting rates, we estimated the basic reproduction number R₀ at 2.07 (95% credible interval: 1.47-2.59) and the first case importation between 21 May and 18 June 2017. Outbreak risk was higher in coastal/rural sites than urban ones. Novel transmission foci could occur up to mid-November.

Spatial and Temporal Hot Spots of Aedes albopictus Abundance inside and outside a South European Metropolitan Area

Aedes albopictus is a tropical invasive species which in the last decades spread worldwide, also colonizing temperate regions of Europe and US, where it has become a public health concern due to its ability to transmit exotic arboviruses, as well as severe nuisance problems due to its aggressive daytime outdoor biting behaviour. While several studies have been carried out in order to predict the potential limits of the species expansions based on eco-climatic parameters, few studies have so far focused on the specific effects of these variables in shaping its micro-geographic abundance and dynamics. The present study investigated eco-climatic factors affecting Ae. albopictus abundance and dynamics in metropolitan and sub-urban/rural sites in Rome (Italy), which was colonized in 1997 and is nowadays one of the most infested metropolitan areas in Southern Europe. To this aim, longitudinal adult monitoring was carried out along a 70 km-transect across and beyond the most urbanized and densely populated metropolitan area. Two fine scale spatiotemporal datasets (one with reference to a 20m circular buffer around sticky traps used to collect mosquitoes and the second to a 300m circular buffer within each sampling site) were exploited to analyze the effect of climatic and socio-environmental variables on Ae. albopictus abundance and dynamics along the transect. Results showed an association between highly anthropized habitats and high adult abundance both in metropolitan and sub-urban/rural areas, with "small green islands" corresponding to hot spots of abundance in the metropolitan areas only, and a bimodal seasonal dynamics with a second peak of abundance in autumn, due to heavy rains occurring in the preceding weeks in association with permissive temperatures. The results provide useful indications to prioritize public mosquito control measures in temperate urban areas where nuisance, human-mosquito contact and risk of local arbovirus transmission are likely higher, and highlight potential public health risks also after the summer months typically associated with high mosquito densities.

Evaluation of interleukin 28B single nucleotide polymorphisms in infants suffering from bronchiolitis

The genetic diversity of the host is believed to be the key of the diversity in the clinical presentation of bronchiolitis. The aim of this study was to determine whether the known rs12979860 and rs8099917 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in interleukin (IL)28B region, influence clinical features and natural history of bronchiolitis. Both SNPs showed no significant association with the risk of hospitalization for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), viral load, disease severity, and other clinical features of patients. Interestingly infants carrying IL28B rs12979860 TT genotype had lower age at hospital admission than that of infants carrying CC/CT genotypes. Overall our results indicate that both IL28B SNPs had no impact on the clinical course of bronchiolitis with the only exception of the IL28B rs12979860 SNP which increased the risk of hospitalization for bronchiolitis at early age.