Validation of the emergency surgery score (ESS) in a UK patient population and comparison with NELA scoring: a retrospective multicentre cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Accurate risk scoring in emergency general surgery (EGS) is vital for consent and resource allocation. The emergency surgery score (ESS) has been validated as a reliable preoperative predictor of postoperative outcomes in EGS but has been studied only in the US population. Our primary aim was to perform an external validation study of the ESS in a UK population. Our secondary aim was to compare the accuracy of ESS and National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) scores.

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study of adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy over three years in two UK centres. ESS was calculated retrospectively. NELA scores and all other variables were obtained from the prospectively collected Emergency Laparotomy and Laparoscopic Scottish Audit (ELLSA) database. The primary and secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 609 patients were included. Median age was 65 years, 52.7% were female, the overall mortality was 9.9% and 23.8% were admitted to ICU. Both ESS and NELA were equally accurate in predicting 30-day mortality (c-statistic=0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.71-0.85) for ESS and c-statistic=0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.88) for NELA, p=0.196) and predicting postoperative ICU admission (c-statistic=0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.81) for ESS and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85) for NELA, p=0.092).

CONCLUSIONS

In the UK population, ESS and NELA both predict 30-day mortality and ICU admission with no statistically significant difference but with higher c-statistics for NELA score. Both scores have certain advantages, with ESS being validated for a wider range of outcomes.

Goodbye Hartmann trial: a prospective, international, multicenter, observational study on the current use of a surgical procedure developed a century ago

BACKGROUND

Literature suggests colonic resection and primary anastomosis (RPA) instead of Hartmann's procedure (HP) for the treatment of left-sided colonic emergencies. We aim to evaluate the surgical options globally used to treat patients with acute left-sided colonic emergencies and the factors that leading to the choice of treatment, comparing HP and RPA.

METHODS

This is a prospective, international, multicenter, observational study registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. A total 1215 patients with left-sided colonic emergencies who required surgery were included from 204 centers during the period of March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020. with a 1-year follow-up.

RESULTS

564 patients (43.1%) were females. The mean age was 65.9 ± 15.6 years. HP was performed in 697 (57.3%) patients and RPA in 384 (31.6%) cases. Complicated acute diverticulitis was the most common cause of left-sided colonic emergencies (40.2%), followed by colorectal malignancy (36.6%). Severe complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3b) were higher in the HP group (P < 0.001). 30-day mortality was higher in HP patients (13.7%), especially in case of bowel perforation and diffused peritonitis. 1-year follow-up showed no differences on ostomy reversal rate between HP and RPA. (P = 0.127). A backward likelihood logistic regression model showed that RPA was preferred in younger patients, having low ASA score (≤ 3), in case of large bowel obstruction, absence of colonic ischemia, longer time from admission to surgery, operating early at the day working hours, by a surgeon who performed more than 50 colorectal resections.

CONCLUSIONS

After 100 years since the first Hartmann's procedure, HP remains the most common treatment for left-sided colorectal emergencies. Treatment's choice depends on patient characteristics, the time of surgery and the experience of the surgeon. RPA should be considered as the gold standard for surgery, with HP being an exception.

Nationwide, County-Level Analysis of the Patterns, Trends, and System-Level Predictors of Opioid Prescribing in Surgery in the US: Social Determinants and Access to Mental Health Services Matter

BACKGROUND

The diversion of unused opioid prescription pills to the community at large contributes to the opioid epidemic in the US. In this county-level population-based study, we aimed to examine the US surgeons' opioid prescription patterns, trends, and system-level predictors in the peak years of the opioid epidemic.

STUDY DESIGN

Using the Medicare Part D database (2013 to 2017), the mean number of opioid prescriptions per beneficiary (OPBs) was determined for each US county. Opioid-prescribing patterns were compared across counties. Multivariable linear regression was performed to determine relationships between county-level social determinants of health (demographic, eg median age and education level; socioeconomic, eg median income; population health status, eg percentage of current smokers; healthcare quality, eg rate of preventable hospital stays; and healthcare access, eg healthcare costs) and OPBs.

RESULTS

Opioid prescription data were available for 1,969 of 3,006 (65.5%) US counties, and opioid-related deaths were recorded in 1,384 of 3,006 counties (46%). Nationwide, the mean OPBs decreased from 1.08 ± 0.61 in 2013 to 0.87 ± 0.55 in 2017; 81.6% of the counties showed the decreasing trend. County-level multivariable analyses showed that lower median population age, higher percentages of bachelor's degree holders, higher percentages of adults reporting insufficient sleep, higher healthcare costs, fewer mental health providers, and higher percentages of uninsured adults are associated with higher OPBs.

CONCLUSIONS

Opioid prescribing by surgeons decreased between 2013 and 2017. A county's suboptimal access to healthcare in general and mental health services in specific may be associated with more opioid prescribing after surgery.

Insurance Not Socioeconomic Status is Associated With Access to Postacute Care After Injury: A Multicenter Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Access to postacute care services in rehabilitation or skilled nursing facilities is essential to return trauma patients to their preinjury functional level but is often hindered by systemic barriers. We sought to study the association between the type of insurance, socioeconomic status (SES) measures, and postacute care utilization after injury.

METHODS

Adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥9 admitted to one of three Level I trauma centers were contacted 6-12 mo after injury to gather long-term functional and patient-centered outcome measures. In addition to SES inquiry specifically focused on education and income levels, patients were asked to subjectively categorize their perceived SES (p-SES) as high, mid-high, mid-low, or low. Insurance and income data were retrieved from trauma registries. Multivariable regression models were built to determine the association between type of insurance, SES, and discharge disposition after adjusting for patient and injury characteristics and hospitalization events.

RESULTS

A total of 1373 patients were included, of which 44% were discharged to postacute care facilities. The median age (IQR) was 65 (46, 76) years, 56% of patients were male, 11% were on Medicaid, 68% had attained education higher than high school, 27% had low income, and 29% reported a low/mid-low p-SES. Medicaid patients were less likely to be discharged to postacute care compared to privately insured (OR [95% CI]: 0.41 [0.29-0.58]) and Medicare patients (OR [95% CI]: 0.29 [0.16-0.50]). The latter relationship was true across p-SES categories. P-SES, income and educational level were not associated with discharge destination.

CONCLUSIONS

Insurance status, specifically having Medicaid, can pose a barrier to access to postacute care services in the trauma patient population across patients of all SES. Initiatives and policies that aim at reducing these access disparities are warranted.

Video-Assisted Thoracic Surgery Evacuation of Retained Hemothorax; Timing May Not Increase Thoracoscopic Failure

INTRODUCTION

Current guidelines for retained hemothorax (rHTX) in trauma patients recommend video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) within 4 days. However, this recommendation is currently based upon evidence from small observational studies. The aim of this study is to further evaluate the association between timing of VATS and clinical outcomes in rHTX following trauma.

METHODS

Using the 2017-2019 Trauma Quality Improvement Program database, adult (≥15 years-old) trauma patients with rHTX who underwent evacuation of rHTX through VATS were included. Multivariable linear and logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between the timing of VATS and clinical outcomes. Postponing/delaying evacuation through VATS was defined in our analysis as performing the surgery 1 day later in time.

RESULTS

793 patients were included. VATS was performed at a median 4.5 days (Interquartile range = 2.4, 8.4). A 1.17 day increase in hospital length of stay (P = <0.001), a 0.17 day increase in postoperative hospital length of stay (P = 0.007), a 0.48 day increase in ventilation days (P = <0.001), and a 0.66 day increase in intensive care unit length of stay (P = <0.001) was found for each day that VATS was delayed. Additionally, a 1.10 odds ratio for infectious complications (P = <0.001) and a 0.96 odds ratio for discharge to home (P = 0.006) was seen for each day VATS was delayed. There was no significant association between the timing of VATS failure of VATS (defined as requiring additional procedures such as a secondary VATS or progressed to thoracotomy after initial VATS) and mortality (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

While delaying VATS was statistically associated with increased hospital length of stay, and other secondary outcomes, the clinical significance of the increase in these variables were less dramatic compared to the results of other studies, thus tempering the urgency of evacuation. Additionally, there was no association found between the timing of VATS and mortality, discharge disposition, or the need for additional VATS and/or thoracotomy. Therefore, in the appropriate clinical context, the evacuation of rHTX through VATS can be delayed if clinically necessary, without an associated increase in mortality or the requirement for additional procedures.

Use of artificial intelligence for nonlinear benchmarking of surgical care

BACKGROUND

Existent methodologies for benchmarking the quality of surgical care are linear and fail to capture the complex interactions of preoperative variables. We sought to leverage novel nonlinear artificial intelligence methodologies to benchmark emergency surgical care.

METHODS

Using a nonlinear but interpretable artificial intelligence methodology called optimal classification trees, first, the overall observed mortality rate at the index hospital's emergency surgery population (index cohort) was compared to the risk-adjusted expected mortality rate calculated by the optimal classification trees from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (benchmark cohort). Second, the artificial intelligence optimal classification trees created different "nodes" of care representing specific patient phenotypes defined by the artificial intelligence optimal classification trees without human interference to optimize prediction. These nodes capture multiple iterative risk-adjusted comparisons, permitting the identification of specific areas of excellence and areas for improvement.

RESULTS

The index and benchmark cohorts included 1,600 and 637,086 patients, respectively. The observed and risk-adjusted expected mortality rates of the index cohort calculated by optimal classification trees were similar (8.06% [95% confidence interval: 6.8-9.5] vs 7.53%, respectively, P = .42). Two areas of excellence and 4 for improvement were identified. For example, the index cohort had lower-than-expected mortality when patients were older than 75 and in respiratory failure and septic shock preoperatively but higher-than-expected mortality when patients had respiratory failure preoperatively and were thrombocytopenic, with an international normalized ratio ≤1.7.

CONCLUSION

We used artificial intelligence methodology to benchmark the quality of emergency surgical care. Such nonlinear and interpretable methods promise a more comprehensive evaluation and a deeper dive into areas of excellence versus suboptimal care.

The use of POTTER (Predictive Optimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk) calculator to predict mortality and complications in patients submitted to Emergency Surgery

INTRODUCTION

the ability of the care team to reliably predict postoperative risk is essential for improvements in surgical decision-making, patient and family counseling, and resource allocation in hospitals. The Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered POTTER (Predictive Optimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk) calculator represents a user-friendly interface and has since been downloaded in its iPhone and Android format by thousands of surgeons worldwide. It was originally developed to be used in non-traumatic emergency surgery patients. However, Potter has not been validated outside the US yet. In this study, we aimed to validate the POTTER calculator in a Brazilian academic hospital.

METHODS

mortality and morbidity were analyzed using the POTTER calculator in both trauma and non-trauma emergency surgery patients submitted to surgical treatment between November 2020 and July 2021. A total of 194 patients were prospectively included in this analysis.

RESULTS

regarding the presence of comorbidities, about 20% of the population were diabetics and 30% were smokers. A total of 47.4% of the patients had hypertensive prednisone. After the analysis of the results, we identified an adequate capability to predict 30-day mortality and morbidity for this group of patients.

CONCLUSION

the POTTER calculator presented excellent performance in predicting both morbidity and mortality in the studied population, representing an important tool for surgical teams to define risks, benefits, and outcomes for the emergency surgery population.

Revisiting abdominal closure in mesenteric ischemia: is there an association with outcome?

PURPOSE

Current guidelines advocate liberal use of delayed abdominal closure in patients with acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) undergoing laparotomy. Few studies have systematically examined this practice. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of delayed abdominal closure on postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients with AMI.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of the ACS-NSQIP 2013-2017 registry. We included patients with a diagnosis of AMI undergoing emergency laparotomy. Patients were divided into two groups based on the type of abdominal closure: (1) delayed fascial closure (DFC) when no layers of the abdominal wall were closed and (2) immediate fascial closure (IFC) if deep layers or all layers of the abdominal wall were closed. Propensity score matching was performed based on comorbidities, pre-operative, and operative characteristics. Univariable analysis was performed on the matched sample.

RESULTS

The propensity-matched cohort consisted of 1520 patients equally divided into the DFC and IFC groups. The median (IQR) age was 68 (59-77), and 836 (55.0%) were female. Compared to IFC, the DFC group showed increased in-hospital mortality (38.9% vs. 31.6%, p = 0.002), 30-day mortality (42.4% vs. 36.3%, p = 0.012), and increased risk of respiratory failure (59.5% vs. 31.2%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The delayed fascial closure technique was associated with increased mortality compared to immediate fascial closure. These findings do not support the blanket incorporation of delayed closure in mesenteric ischemia care or its previously advocated liberal use.

Artificial intelligence versus surgeon gestalt in predicting risk of emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI) risk prediction algorithms such as the smartphone-available Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER) for emergency general surgery (EGS) are superior to traditional risk calculators because they account for complex nonlinear interactions between variables, but how they compare to surgeons' gestalt remains unknown. Herein, we sought to: (1) compare POTTER to surgeons' surgical risk estimation and (2) assess how POTTER influences surgeons' risk estimation.

STUDY DESIGN

A total of 150 patients who underwent EGS at a large quaternary care center between May 2018 and May 2019 were prospectively followed up for 30-day postoperative outcomes (mortality, septic shock, ventilator dependence, bleeding requiring transfusion, pneumonia), and clinical cases were systematically created representing their initial presentation. POTTER's outcome predictions for each case were also recorded. Thirty acute care surgeons with diverse practice settings and levels of experience were then randomized into two groups: 15 surgeons (SURG) were asked to predict the outcomes without access to POTTER's predictions while the remaining 15 (SURG-POTTER) were asked to predict the same outcomes after interacting with POTTER. Comparing to actual patient outcomes, the area under the curve (AUC) methodology was used to assess the predictive performance of (1) POTTER versus SURG, and (2) SURG versus SURG-POTTER.

RESULTS

POTTER outperformed SURG in predicting all outcomes (mortality-AUC: 0.880 vs. 0.841; ventilator dependence-AUC: 0.928 vs. 0.833; bleeding-AUC: 0.832 vs. 0.735; pneumonia-AUC: 0.837 vs. 0.753) except septic shock (AUC: 0.816 vs. 0.820). SURG-POTTER outperformed SURG in predicting mortality (AUC: 0.870 vs. 0.841), bleeding (AUC: 0.811 vs. 0.735), pneumonia (AUC: 0.803 vs. 0.753) but not septic shock (AUC: 0.712 vs. 0.820) or ventilator dependence (AUC: 0.834 vs. 0.833).

CONCLUSION

The AI risk calculator POTTER outperformed surgeons' gestalt in predicting the postoperative mortality and outcomes of EGS patients, and when used, improved the individual surgeons' risk prediction. Artificial intelligence algorithms, such as POTTER, could prove useful as a bedside adjunct to surgeons when preoperatively counseling patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level II.

Timing of regional analgesia in elderly patients with blunt chest-wall injury

BACKGROUND

Rib fractures represent a typical injury pattern in older people and are associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. Regional analgesia modalities are adjuncts for pain management, but the optimal timing for their initiation remains understudied. We hypothesized that early regional analgesia would have similar outcomes to late regional analgesia.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database from 2017 to 2019. We included patients ≥65 years old admitted with blunt chest wall trauma who received regional analgesia. We divided patients into 2 groups: (1) early regional analgesia (within 24 hours of admission) and (2) late regional analgesia (>24 hours). The outcomes evaluated were ventilator-associated pneumonia, mortality, unplanned intensive care unit admission, unplanned intubation, discharge to home, and duration of stay. Univariable analysis and multivariable logistic regression adjusting for patient and injury characteristics, trauma center level, and respiratory interventions were performed.

RESULTS

In the study, 2,248 patients were included. The mean (standard deviation) age was 75.3 (6.9), and 52.7% were male. The median injury severity score (interquartile range) was 13 (9-17). The early regional analgesia group had a decreased incidence of unplanned intubation (2.7% vs 5.3%, P = .002), unplanned intensive care unit admission (4.9% vs 8.4%, P < .001), and shorter mean duration of stay (5.5 vs 6.5 days, P = .002). In multivariable analysis, early regional analgesia was associated with decreased odds of unplanned intubation (odds ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.94; P = .026), unplanned intensive care unit admission (odds ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval, 0.041-0.86; P = .006), and increased odds of discharge to home (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.55; P = .019). After multivariable adjustment, no significant difference was found for ventilator-associated pneumonia or mortality (odds ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-1.04; P = .070).

CONCLUSION

Early regional analgesia initiation is associated with improved outcomes in older people with blunt chest wall injuries. Geriatric trauma care bundles targeting early initiation of regional analgesia can potentially decrease complications and resource use.

Development of a Machine Learning-Based Prescriptive Tool to Address Racial Disparities in Access to Care After Penetrating Trauma

Importance

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in clinical medicine risks perpetuating existing bias in care, such as disparities in access to postinjury rehabilitation services.

Objective

To leverage a novel, interpretable AI-based technology to uncover racial disparities in access to postinjury rehabilitation care and create an AI-based prescriptive tool to address these disparities.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the 2010-2016 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database for Black and White patients with a penetrating mechanism of injury. An interpretable AI methodology called optimal classification trees (OCTs) was applied in an 80:20 derivation/validation split to predict discharge disposition (home vs postacute care [PAC]). The interpretable nature of OCTs allowed for examination of the AI logic to identify racial disparities. A prescriptive mixed-integer optimization model using age, injury, and gender data was allowed to "fairness-flip" the recommended discharge destination for a subset of patients while minimizing the ratio of imbalance between Black and White patients. Three OCTs were developed to predict discharge disposition: the first 2 trees used unadjusted data (one without and one with the race variable), and the third tree used fairness-adjusted data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Disparities and the discriminative performance (C statistic) were compared among fairness-adjusted and unadjusted OCTs.

Results

A total of 52 468 patients were included; the median (IQR) age was 29 (22-40) years, 46 189 patients (88.0%) were male, 31 470 (60.0%) were Black, and 20 998 (40.0%) were White. A total of 3800 Black patients (12.1%) were discharged to PAC, compared with 4504 White patients (21.5%; P < .001). Examining the AI logic uncovered significant disparities in PAC discharge destination access, with race playing the second most important role. The prescriptive fairness adjustment recommended flipping the discharge destination of 4.5% of the patients, with the performance of the adjusted model increasing from a C statistic of 0.79 to 0.87. After fairness adjustment, disparities disappeared, and a similar percentage of Black and White patients (15.8% vs 15.8%; P = .87) had a recommended discharge to PAC.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, we developed an accurate, machine learning-based, fairness-adjusted model that can identify barriers to discharge to postacute care. Instead of accidentally encoding bias, interpretable AI methodologies are powerful tools to diagnose and remedy system-related bias in care, such as disparities in access to postinjury rehabilitation care.

Prevalence and risk factors of unruptured intracranial aneurysms in ischemic stroke patients - A global meta-analysis

Background

Unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) have an estimated global prevalence of 2.8% in the adult population; however, UIA was identified among more than 10% of ischemic stroke patients. Many epidemiological studies and reviews have pointed to the presence of UIA among patients with ischemic stroke; yet, the extent of this association is not fully known. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the prevalence of UIA in patients admitted to hospitals with ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) at both global and continental levels and evaluate factors associated with UIA in this population.

Methods

We identified, in five databases, all studies describing UIA in ischemic stroke and TIA patients between January 1, 2000, and December 20, 2021. Included studies were of observational and experimental design.

Results

Our search yielded 3581 articles of which 23 were included, with a total of 25,420 patients. The pooled prevalence of UIA was 5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-6%) with stratified results showing 6% (95% CI = 4-9%), 6% (95% CI = 5-7%), and 4% (95% CI = 2-5%) in North America, Asia, and Europe, respectively. Significant risk factors were large vessel occlusion (odds ratios [OR] = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.01-1.47) and hypertension (OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.24-1.69), while protective factors were male sex (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.53-0.68) and diabetes (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.72-0.95).

Conclusion

The prevalence of UIA is notably higher in ischemic stroke patients than the general population. Physicians should be aware of common risk factors in stroke and aneurysm formation for appropriate prevention.

Underuse and Variability in Substance Use Screening Among Adult Trauma Patients in the U.S.: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the rates and variability in substance screening among adult trauma patients in the U.S.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Emergency Department trauma visits provide a unique opportunity to identify patients with substance use disorders. Despite the existence of screening guidelines, underscreening and variability in screening practices remain.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study including adult trauma patients (18- 64-year-old) from the ACS-TQIP 2017-18 database. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to adjust for demographics, clinical, and facility factors, and marginal probabilities were calculated using these multivariable models. The primary outcomes were substance screening and positivity, which were defined relative to the observation-weighted grand mean (mean).

RESULTS

2,048,176 patients were contained in the TQIP dataset, 809,878 (39.5%) were screened for alcohol (20.8% positive), and 617,129 (30.1%) were screened for drugs (37.3% positive). After all exclusion criteria were applied, 765,897 patients were included in the analysis, 394,391 (52.9%) were screened for alcohol (22.1% tested positive), and 279,531 (36.5%) were screened for drugs (44.3% tested positive). Among the patients included in our study, significant variability in screening rates existed with respect to demo-graphic, trauma mechanism, injury severity, and facility factors. Furthermore, in several cases, patient subpopulations who were less likely to be screened were in fact more likely to screen positive or vice versa.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective substance-screening guidelines should be predicated on achieving universal screening. Current lapses in screening, along with the observed variability, likely affect different patient populations in disparate manners and lead to both under-detection as well as waste of valuable resources.

Association of Comorbidities and Functional Level With Mortality in Geriatric Bowel Perforation

INTRODUCTION

Spontaneous bowel perforation is associated with high morbidity and mortality. This entity remains understudied in the geriatric patient. We sought to use a national surgical sample to uncover independent predictors of mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergent operation for perforated bowel.

METHODS

Using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement database, years 2007 to 2017, all geriatric patients (age ≥65 y) who underwent emergency surgery and who had a postoperative diagnosis of bowel perforation were included. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to identify independent predictors of 30-d mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 8981 patients were included. The median (interquartile range) age was 75 y (69, 82), and 59.0% were female. Twenty-one percent of patients were partially or totally dependent, and 25.2% were admitted from sources other than home. Overall, 30-d mortality rate was 22.1%. Independent predictors of mortality included the following: age 70-79 y (odds ratio [OR]: 1.59, P < 0.001), age ≥80 y (OR: 3.23, P < 0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists ≥3 (OR: 4.74, P < 0.001), admission from chronic care facility (OR: 1.61, P < 0.001), being partially or totally dependent (OR: 1.50, P < 0.001), chronic steroid use (OR: 1.36, P < 0.001), and preoperative septic shock (OR: 3.74, P < 0.001). Having immediate fascial closure was protective against mortality (immediate fascial closure only, OR: 0.55, P < 0.001; -immediate closure of all surgical site layers, OR: 0.44, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In geriatric patients, functional status and chronic steroid therapy play an important role in determining survival following surgery for bowel perforation. These factors should be considered during preoperative counseling and decision-making.

Is perioperative COVID-19 really associated with worse surgical outcomes? A nationwide COVIDSurg propensity-matched analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing surgery with perioperative COVID-19 are suggested to have worse outcomes, but whether this is COVID-related or due to selection bias remains unclear. We aimed to compare the postoperative outcomes of patients with and without perioperative COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients with perioperative COVID-19 diagnosed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery between February and July 2020 from 68 US hospitals in COVIDSurg, an international multicenter database, were 1:1 propensity score matched to patients without COVID-19 undergoing similar procedures in the 2012 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The matching criteria included demographics (e.g., age, sex), comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease), and operation characteristics (e.g., type, urgency, complexity). The primary outcome was 30-day hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay and 13 postoperative complications (e.g., pneumonia, renal failure, surgical site infection).

RESULTS

A total of 97,936 patients were included, 1,054 with and 96,882 without COVID-19. Prematching, COVID-19 patients more often underwent emergency surgery (76.1% vs. 10.3%, p < 0.001). A total of 843 COVID-19 and 843 non-COVID-19 patients were successfully matched based on demographics, comorbidities, and operative characteristics. Postmatching, COVID-19 patients had a higher mortality (12.0% vs. 8.1%, p = 0.007), longer length of stay (6 [2-15] vs. 5 [1-12] days), and higher rates of acute renal failure (19.3% vs. 3.0%, p < 0.001), sepsis (13.5% vs. 9.0%, p = 0.003), and septic shock (11.8% vs. 6.0%, p < 0.001). They also had higher rates of thromboembolic complications such as deep vein thrombosis (4.4% vs. 1.5%, p < 0.001) and pulmonary embolism (2.5% vs. 0.4%, p < 0.001) but lower rates of bleeding (11.6% vs. 26.1%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Patients undergoing surgery with perioperative COVID-19 have higher rates of 30-day mortality and postoperative complications, especially thromboembolic, compared with similar patients without COVID-19 undergoing similar surgeries. Such information is crucial for the complex surgical decision making and counseling of these patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiologic; Level IV.

Open Abdomen in Elderly Patients With Surgical Sepsis: Predictors of Mortality

INTRODUCTION

Elderly patients are frequently presenting with emergency surgical conditions. The open abdomen technique is widely used in abdominal emergencies needing rapid control of intrabdominal contamination. However, specific predictors of mortality identifying candidates for comfort care are understudied.

METHODS

The 2013-2017 the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for emergent laparotomies performed in geriatric patients with sepsis or septic shock in whom fascial closure was delayed. Patients with acute mesenteric ischemia were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-d mortality. Univariable analysis, followed by multivariable logistic regression, was performed. Mortality was computed for combinations of the five predictors with the highest odds ratios (OR).

RESULTS

A total of 1399 patients were identified. The median age was 73 (69-79) y, and 54.7% were female. 30-d mortality was 50.6%. In the multivariable analysis, the most important predictors were as follows: American Society of Anesthesiologists status 5 (OR = 4.80, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.85-12.49 P = 0.002), dialysis dependence (OR = 2.65, 95% CI 1.54-4.57, P < 0.001), congestive hearth failure (OR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.52-4.21, P < 0.001), disseminated cancer (OR = 2.61, 95% CI 1.55-4.38, P < 0.001), and preoperative platelet count of <100,000 cells/μL (OR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.15-3.04, P = 0.011). The presence of two or more of these factors resulted in over 80% mortality. The absence of all these risk factors results in a survival rate of 62.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly patients, surgical sepsis or septic shock requiring an open abdomen for surgical management is highly lethal. The presence of several combinations of preoperative comorbidities is associated with a poor prognosis and can identify patients who can benefit from timely initiation of palliative care.

A Surgical Perspective of Gastrointestinal Manifestations and Complications of COVID-19 Infection

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, has quickly spread over the world since December 2019. COVID-19 is a systemic disease that can affect various organs throughout the body. Gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms have been reported in 16% to 33% of all patients with COVID-19 and in 75% of critically ill patients. This chapter reviews the GI manifestations of COVID-19 as well as their diagnostic and treatment modalities.

Surgical Implications of Coronavirus Disease-19

As the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to evolve in 2022 with the surge of novel viral variants, it is important for physicians to understand and appreciate the surgical implications of the pandemic. This review provides an overview of the implications of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on surgical care and provides recommendations for perioperative management. Most observational studies suggest a higher risk for patients undergoing surgery with COVID-19 compared with risk-adjusted non-COVID-19 patients.

Balanced blood component resuscitation in trauma: Does it matter equally at different transfusion volumes?

BACKGROUND

It remains unclear whether the association between balanced blood component transfusion and lower mortality is generalizable to trauma patients receiving varying transfusion volumes. We sought to study the role red blood cell transfusion volume plays in the relationships between red blood cell:platelet and red blood cell:fresh frozen plasma ratios and 4-hour mortality.

METHODS

Adult patients in the 2013 to 2018 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database receiving ≥6 red blood cell, ≥1 platelet, and ≥1 fresh frozen plasma within 4 hours were included. The following 4 cohorts were defined based on 4-hour red blood cell transfusion volume: (1) 6 to 10 units, (2) 11 to 15 units, (3) 16 to 20 units, and (4) >20 units. The association between red blood cell:fresh frozen plasma, red blood cell:platelet, and 4-hour mortality was evaluated discretely for each red blood cell transfusion volume category, statistically adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 14,549 patients were included. In patients receiving 6 to 10 units of red blood cells, red blood cell:platelet ratios were not associated with 4-hour mortality, and only red blood cell:fresh frozen plasma ≥4:1 were associated with significantly higher odds of 4-hour mortality compared to 1:1. For patients receiving >10 red blood cell units, increasing red blood cell:platelet and red blood cell:fresh frozen plasma ratios were consistently associated with increased odds of 4-hour mortality. For example, in red blood cell volumes of 11 to 15, 16 to 20, and >20 units, risk-adjusted 4-hour mortality odds ratios for red blood cell:platelet ≥4:1 were 2.27 (1.47-3.51), 3.32 (2.26-4.90), and 3.01 (2.33-3.88), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The association between balanced blood component transfusion and 4-hour mortality is not homogenous in trauma patients requiring different transfusion volumes and is specifically less evident in patients receiving lower volumes. Such findings should be considered in the current and future blood shortage crises across the nation.

Delayed fascial closure in nontrauma abdominal emergencies: A nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND

Initially used in trauma management, delayed abdominal closure endeavors to decrease operative time during the index operation while still being lifesaving. Its use in emergency general surgery is increasing, but the data evaluating its outcome are sparse. We aimed to study the association between delayed abdominal closure, mortality, morbidity, and length of stay in an emergency surgery cohort.

METHODS

The 2013 to 2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was examined for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. The patients were classified by the timing of abdominal wall closure: delayed fascial closure versus immediate fascial closure. Propensity score matching was performed based on preoperative covariates, wound classification, and performance of bowel resection. The outcomes were then compared by univariable analysis.

RESULTS

After matching, both the delayed fascial closure and immediate fascial closure groups consisted of 3,354 patients each. Median age was 65 years, and 52.6% were female. The delayed fascial closure group had a higher in-hospital mortality (35.3% vs 25.0%, P < .001), a higher 30-day mortality (38.6% vs 29.0%, P < .001), a higher proportion of acute kidney injury (9.5% vs 6.6%, P < .001), a lower proportion of postoperative sepsis (11.8% vs 15.6%, P < .001), and a lower proportion of surgical site infection (3.4% vs 7.0%, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Compared with immediate fascial closure, delayed fascial closure is associated with an increased mortality in the patients matched based on comorbidities and surgical site contamination. In emergency general surgery, delaying abdominal closure may not have the presumed overarching benefits, and its indications must be further defined in this population.

Opioid Misuse: A Review of the Main Issues, Challenges, and Strategies

In the United States, from 1999 to 2019, opioid overdose, either regularly prescribed or illegally acquired, was the cause of death for nearly 500,000 people. In addition to this pronounced mortality burden that has increased gradually over time, opioid overdose has significant morbidity with severe risks and side effects. As a result, opioid misuse is a cause for concern and is considered an epidemic. This article examines the trends and consequences of the opioid epidemic presented in recent international literature, reflecting on the causes of this phenomenon and the possible strategies to address it. The detailed analysis of 33 international articles highlights numerous impacts in the social, public health, economic, and political spheres. The prescription opioid epidemic is an almost exclusively North American problem. This phenomenon should be carefully evaluated from a healthcare systems perspective, for consequential risks and harms of aggressive opioid prescription practices for pain management. Appropriate policies are required to manage opioid use and prevent abuse efficiently. Examples of proper policies vary, such as the use of validated questionnaires for the early identification of patients at risk of addiction, the effective use of regional and national prescription monitoring programs, and the proper dissemination and translation of knowledge to highlight the risks of prescription opioid abuse.

Establishing Safe Working Parameters for Radiofrequency Ablation In Vitro Using Acoustic Sensing, Probability Mapping, and Catheter Contact Angle

Surgical quality and safety in radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFA) are critical in arrhythmia procedures. Steam pops, in particular, are potentially catastrophic events that must be avoided; otherwise, they may cause significant damage to the myocardium. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of applied RFA inclination angle and tissue contact parameters on the ablated volume and “steam pop” formation. An ex vivo model consisting of a viable ovine myocardium, an ablation catheter, and a circulating warmed 0.9% NaCl saline solution was used. RFA was conducted while controlling for contact force, electrical power, ablation time, flow rate, irrigation, and catheter tip angle. Irrigation was delivered to the catheter tip manually when indicated. Acoustic transducers were included in the setup to detect preliminary acoustic signals. A total dataset of 567 measurements was taken. Benign precursory signals (hissing and lower-intensity “pops”) were detected by acoustic sensors preceding the occurrence of “steam pops.” Furthermore, a Pearson coefficient of r = 0.809 with P < .01 was shown to exist between the acoustic intensity of a “steam pop” and the ablated lesion volume. RFA powers of 25 and 30 W with a duration of 20 s induced more “steam pops” than ablation powers of ≤20 W with a duration of ≥30 s. There was also an increased probability of “steam pop” formation with the use of a non-irrigated catheter tip, as compared to an irrigated catheter tip. A more acute catheter angle increased the lesion size at powers of 20 and 25 W (r = −0.568 and r = −0.653, both P < .05, respectively). There is a potential benefit of using acoustic sensing as a warning before the occurrence of “steam pops.” Varying power, duration, and catheter tip angle will generate different ablation sizes and need to be tailored to individual needs and procedures.

POTTER-ICU: An artificial intelligence smartphone-accessible tool to predict the need for intensive care after emergency surgery

BACKGROUND

Delays in admitting high-risk emergency surgery patients to the intensive care unit result in worse outcomes and increased health care costs. We aimed to use interpretable artificial intelligence technology to create a preoperative predictor for postoperative intensive care unit need in emergency surgery patients.

METHODS

A novel, interpretable artificial intelligence technology called optimal classification trees was leveraged in an 80:20 train:test split of adult emergency surgery patients in the 2007-2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory values were used to develop, train, and then validate optimal classification tree algorithms to predict the need for postoperative intensive care unit admission. The latter was defined as postoperative death or the development of 1 or more postoperative complications warranting critical care (eg, unplanned intubation, ventilator requirement ≥48 hours, cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and septic shock). An interactive and user-friendly application was created. C statistics were used to measure performance.

RESULTS

A total of 464,861 patients were included. The mean age was 55 years, 48% were male, and 11% developed severe postoperative complications warranting critical care. The Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk Intensive Care Unit application was created as the user-friendly interface of the complex optimal classification tree algorithms. The number of questions (ie, tree depths) needed to predict intensive care unit admission ranged from 2 to 11. The Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk Intensive Care Unit application had excellent discrimination for predicting the need for intensive care unit admission (C statistics: 0.89 train, 0.88 test).

CONCLUSION

We recommend the Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk Intensive Care Unit application as an accurate, artificial intelligence-based tool for predicting severe complications warranting intensive care unit admission after emergency surgery. The Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk Intensive Care Unit application can prove useful to triage patients to the intensive care unit and to potentially decrease failure to rescue in emergency surgery patients.

Do not forget the platelets: The independent impact of red blood cell to platelet ratio on mortality in massively transfused trauma patients

BACKGROUND

Balanced blood component administration during massive transfusion is standard of care. Most literature focuses on the impact of red blood cell (RBC)/fresh frozen plasma (FFP) ratio, while the value of balanced RBC:platelet (PLT) administration is less established. The aim of this study was to evaluate and quantify the independent impact of RBC:PLT on 24-hour mortality in trauma patients receiving massive transfusion.

METHODS

Using the 2013 to 2018 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database, adult patients who received massive transfusion (≥10 U of RBC/24 hours) and ≥1 U of RBC, FFP, and PLT within 4 hours of arrival were retrospectively included. To mitigate survival bias, only patients with consistent RBC:PLT and RBC:FFP ratios between 4 and 24 hours were analyzed. Balanced FFP or PLT transfusions were defined as having RBC:PLT and RBC:FFP of ≤2, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the independent relationship between RBC:FFP, RBC:PLT, balanced transfusion, and 24-hour mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 9,215 massive transfusion patients were included. The number of patients who received transfusion with RBC:PLT >2 (1,942 [21.1%]) was significantly higher than those with RBC:FFP >2 (1,160 [12.6%]) (p < 0.001). Compared with an RBC:PLT ratio of 1:1, a gradual and consistent risk increase was observed for 24-hour mortality as the RBC:PLT ratio increased (p < 0.001). Patients with both FFP and PLT balanced transfusion had the lowest adjusted risk for 24-hour mortality. Mortality increased as resuscitation became more unbalanced, with higher odds of death for unbalanced PLT (odds ratio, 2.48 [2.18-2.83]) than unbalanced FFP (odds ratio, 1.66 [1.37-1.98]), while patients who received both FFP and PLT unbalanced transfusion had the highest risk of 24-hour mortality (odds ratio, 3.41 [2.74-4.24]).

CONCLUSION

Trauma patients receiving massive transfusion significantly more often have unbalanced PLT rather than unbalanced FFP transfusion. The impact of unbalanced PLT transfusion on 24-hour mortality is independent and potentially more pronounced than unbalanced FFP transfusion, warranting serious system-level efforts for improvement.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic/Care Management; Level IV.

Critically Appraising the Quality of Reporting of American College of Surgeons TQIP Studies in the Era of Large Data Research

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons-Trauma Quality Improvement Program (ACS-TQIP) database is one of the most widely used databases for trauma research. We aimed to critically appraise the quality of the methodological reporting of ACS-TQIP studies.

STUDY DESIGN

The ACS-TQIP bibliography was queried for all studies published between January 2018 and January 2021. The quality of data reporting was assessed using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology-Reporting of Studies Conducted Using Observational Routinely Collected Health Data (STROBE-RECORD) statement and the JAMA Surgery checklist. Three items from each tool were not applicable and thus excluded. The quality of reporting was compared between high- and low-impact factor (IF) journals (cutoff for high IF is >90th percentile of all surgical journals).

RESULTS

A total of 118 eligible studies were included; 12 (10%) were published in high-IF journals. The median (interquartile range) number of criteria fulfilled was 5 (4-6) for the STROBE-RECORD statement (of 10 items) and 5 (5-6) for the JAMA Surgery checklist (of 7 items). Specifically, 73% of studies did not describe the patient population selection process, 61% did not address data cleaning or the implications of missing values, and 76% did not properly state inclusion/exclusion criteria and/or outcome variables. Studies published in high-IF journals had remarkably higher quality of reporting than those in low-IF journals.

CONCLUSION

The methodological reporting quality of ACS-TQIP studies remains suboptimal. Future efforts should focus on improving adherence to standard reporting guidelines to mitigate potential bias and improve the reproducibility of published studies.

Complicated Abdominal Wall Hernias in the Elderly: Time Is Life and Comorbidities Matter

BACKGROUND

Abdominal wall hernias represent a common problem that can present as surgical emergencies with increased morbidity and mortality. The data examining outcomes in elderly patients with hernia emergencies is scant.

METHODS

The 2007-2017 ACS-NSQIP database was queried. Patients ≥65 years old with a diagnosis of acute complicated abdominal wall hernia were included. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality and surgical site infection (SSI).

RESULTS

Main predictors of 30-day mortality were admission from nursing home or chronic care facility (OR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.10-2.38, P = .014), transfer from outside ED (OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.31-2.51, P < .001), days from admission to operation (OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08, P = .002), recent significant weight loss (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.12-3.37, P = .018), pre-operative septic shock (OR = 4.13, 95% CI: 2.44-6.99, P < .001), ventilator dependence (OR = 2.50, 95% CI: 1.29-4.81, P = .006), and ASA status. When compared to open repair, laparoscopic repair emerged as protective against SSI (OR = .34, 95% CI: .17-.66, P = .001). Bowel resection (OR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.63-2.84, P < .001) and increasing wound class were risk factors for SSI.

CONCLUSION

In the elderly patient presenting with an acute complicated abdominal wall hernia, time to surgery is crucial for survival, and comorbidities influence outcome. Laparoscopy is an option in management due to its decreased risk of surgical site infection without increased mortality, whenever patient factors are favorable for this approach.

Modulating Nanoparticle Size to Understand Factors Affecting Hemostatic Efficacy and Maximize Survival in a Lethal Inferior Vena Cava Injury Model

Intravenous nanoparticle hemostats offer a potentially attractive approach to promote hemostasis, in particular for inaccessible wounds such as noncompressible torso hemorrhage (NCTH). In this work, particle size was tuned over a range of <100-500 nm, and its effect on nanoparticle-platelet interactions was systematically assessed using in vitro and in vivo experiments. Smaller particles bound a larger percentage of platelets per mass of particle delivered, while larger particles resulted in higher particle accumulation on a surface of platelets and collagen. Intermediate particles led to the greatest platelet content in platelet-nanoparticle aggregates, indicating that they may be able to recruit more platelets to the wound. In biodistribution studies, smaller and intermediate nanoparticles exhibited longer circulation lifetimes, while larger nanoparticles resulted in higher pulmonary accumulation. The particles were then challenged in a 2 h lethal inferior vena cava (IVC) puncture model, where intermediate nanoparticles significantly increased both survival and injury-specific targeting relative to saline and unfunctionalized particle controls. An increase in survival in the second hour was likewise observed in the smaller nanoparticles relative to saline controls, though no significant increase in survival was observed in the larger nanoparticle size. In conjunction with prior in vitro and in vivo experiments, these results suggest that platelet content in aggregates and extended nanoparticle circulation lifetimes are instrumental to enhancing hemostasis. Ultimately, this study elucidates the role of particle size in platelet-particle interactions, which can be a useful tool for engineering the performance of particulate hemostats and improving the design of these materials.

The Beirut Port Explosion Injuries and Lessons Learned: Results of the Beirut Blast Assessment for Surgical Services (BASS) Multicenter Study

OBJECTIVE

This multicenter study aims to describe the injury patterns, emergency management and outcomes of the blast victims, recognize the gaps in hospital disaster preparedness, and identify lessons to be learned.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

On August 4th, 2020, the city of Beirut, Lebanon suffered the largest urban explosion since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, resulting in hundreds of deaths and thousands of injuries.

METHODS

All injured patients admitted to four of the largest Beirut hospitals within 72 hours of the blast, including those who died on arrival or in the emergency department (ED), were included. Medical records were systematically reviewed for: patient demographics and comorbidities; injury severity and characteristics; prehospital, ED, operative, and inpatient interventions; and outcomes at hospital discharge. Lessons learned are also shared.

RESULTS

An estimated total of 1818 patients were included, of which 30 died on arrival or in the ED and 315 were admitted to the hospital. Among admitted patients, the mean age was 44.7 years (range: 1 week-93 years), 44.4% were female, and the median injury severity score (ISS) was 10 (5, 17). ISS was inversely related to the distance from the blast epicenter (r = --0.18, P = 0.035). Most injuries involved the upper extremities (53.7%), face (42.2%), and head (40.3%). Mildly injured (ISS <9) patients overwhelmed the ED in the first 2 hours; from hour 2 to hour 8 post-injury, the number of moderately, severely, and profoundly injured patients increased by 127%, 25% and 17%, respectively. A total of 475 operative procedures were performed in 239 patients, most commonly soft tissue debridement or repair (119 patients, 49.8%), limb fracture fixation (107, 44.8%), and tendon repair (56, 23.4%). A total of 11 patients (3.5%) died during the hospitalization, 56 (17.8%) developed at least 1 complication, and 51 (16.2%) were discharged with documented long-term disability. Main lessons learned included: the importance of having key hospital functions (eg, laboratory, operating room) underground; the nonadaptability of electronic medical records to disasters; the ED overwhelming with mild injuries, delay in arrival of the severely injured; and the need for realistic disaster drills.

CONCLUSIONS

We, therefore, describe the injury patterns, emergency flow and trauma outcome of patients injured in the Beirut port explosion. The clinical and system-level lessons learned can help prepare for the next disaster.

Factors that Predict Survival From Mesenteric Ischemia in the Geriatric Patient: Not a Death Sentence

BACKGROUND

The mortality rate from mesenteric ischemia is reported to be as high as 80%. The goal of our study was to identify demographic and clinical predictors of post-operative mortality and discharge disposition among elderly patients with mesenteric ischemia.

METHODS

All patients 65 years and older who underwent emergency surgery (ES) for the management of mesenteric ischemia in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2007 to 2017 were included. Univariate analyses and logistic regressions were used to identify independent predictors of mortality and discharge disposition.

RESULTS

A total of 2438 patients met inclusion criteria, with a median age of 77 years and 60.8% being female. The 30-day mortality of the overall cohort was 31.5% and the 30-day morbidity was 65.3%. The following were the major predictors of 30-day mortality: pre-operative diagnosis of septic shock [OR: 2.46, (95% CI: 1.94-3.13)], dialysis dependence [OR: 2.05, (95% CI: 1.45-2.90)], recent weight loss [OR: 1.80, (95% CI: 1.16-2.79)], age ≥80 years [OR: 1.67, (95% CI: 1.25-2.23)], and ventilator dependence [OR: 1.65, (95% CI: 1.23-2.23)]. In the absence of these predictors, survival rate was 84%. The major predictors of discharge to post-acute care (PAC) included age ≥80 years [OR: 3.70, (95% CI: 2.50-5.47)] and pre-operative septic shock [OR: 2.20, (95% CI: 1.42-3.41)].

CONCLUSION

In the geriatric patient, a diagnosis of mesenteric ischemia does not equate to an automatic death sentence. The presence of certain pre-operative risk factors confers a high risk of mortality, whereas their absence is associated with a high chance of survival.

Necrotizing Soft Tissue Infection in the Elderly: Effect of Pre-Operative Factors on Mortality and Discharge Disposition

Background: Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs) are rapidly progressing, life-threatening diseases associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, especially in patients 65 years or older. We aimed to evaluate clinical factors associated with mortality and discharge disposition after NSTIs in elderly patients. Patients and Methods: Retrospective data were obtained from the 2007-2017 American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality (ACS-NSQIP) database. Patients aged 65 years or older with a post-operative diagnosis of an NSTI (defined as gas gangrene, necrotizing fasciitis, or Fournier gangrene) were included. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify independent clinical and demographic factors associated with mortality and with discharge disposition. Results: A total of 1,460 patients were included. Median age was 71 years, 43% were females. Overall, 30-day mortality was 18.5% and 30-day morbidity was 63.6%. The most important predictors of mortality included pre-operative septic shock (odds ratio [OR], 6.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.61-11.18), pre-operative dialysis dependence (OR, 2.99; 95% CI, 1.77-5.05), coagulopathy (international normalized ratio [INR], >1.5, OR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.51-3.37), hepatobiliary disease (bilirubin >1.0 mg/dL; OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.38-3.04) and aged 80 years or older (OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 2.08-5.44). Patients without any of these risk factors had a mortality of 7.3%. Predictors of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation or skilled care included age 80 years or older (OR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.44-4.30), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) ≥3 (OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.03-4.05)] and amputation as opposed to debridement (OR, 2.53; 95% CI,1.48-4.32). Conclusions: We identified several pre-operative clinical factors that were associated with increased post-operative mortality and discharge to post-acute care. The next steps should focus on determining if optimization of modifiable predictors would improve mortality.

Early versus late enteral nutrition in critically ill patients receiving vasopressor support

BACKGROUND

Outcomes of early enteral nutrition (EEN) in critically ill patients on vasoactive medications remain unclear. We aimed to compare in-hospital outcomes for EEN vs late EN (LEN) in mechanically ventilated patients receiving vasopressor support.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study using the national eICU Collaborative Research Database. Adult patients requiring vasopressor support and mechanical ventilation within 24 h of admission and for ≥2 days were included. Patients with an admission diagnosis that could constitute a contraindication for EEN (eg, gastrointestinal [GI] perforation, GI surgery) and patients with an intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) <72 h were excluded. EEN and LEN were defined as tube feeding within 48 h and between 48 h and 1 week (nothing by mouth during the first 48 h) of admission, respectively. Propensity score matching was performed to derive two cohorts receiving EEN and LEN that were comparable for baseline patient characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 1701 patients who met the inclusion criteria (EEN: 1001, LEN: 700), 1148 were included in propensity score-matched cohorts (EEN: 574, LEN: 574). Median time to EN was 29 vs 79 h from admission in the EEN and LEN groups, respectively. There was no significant difference in mortality or hospital LOS between the two nutrition strategies. EEN was associated with shorter ICU LOS, lower need for renal replacement therapy, and lower incidence of electrolyte abnormalities.

CONCLUSION

This study showed no difference in 28-day mortality between EEN and LEN in critically ill patients receiving vasopressor support.

P1863Establishing safe working parameters for radio frequency catheterization along with acoustic sensing

Background

Studies comparing angles of application in Radio Frequency (RF) catheter ablation other than 0 and 90 degrees are absent from the literature. Likewise, using acoustics to predict steam pop occurrences and prevent a catastrophic rupture of the myocardium has not been examined previously.

Purpose

Evaluate the effect of various parameters on the ablated volume and the probability of creating a boiling pop.

Methods

A low-cost testing and educational platform to work with generic RF catheters was set up. The in-vitro system allows controlling the blood flow surrogate over the cardiac tissue, the catheter contact force, electric power, and ablation time. Acoustic transducers have been employed with the setup to detect preliminary acoustic signals.

Results

Obtained results show a positive correlation between variations of the ablated surface geometry and power intensity changes. Generated figures provide percentages of a boiling pops for any given set of parameters fig1 (Top left: Probability of popping vs power and time). The probability of a boiling pop occurring increased if the ovine specimen is non-irrigated. The ratio of the burn correlates with the power and the angle of the catheter (30°, 45°, 60°, and 90°). However, the probability of the popping mostly depends on the power fig1 (Top right: Burn ratio vs power for 30°, 45°, 60°, and 90°) and fig1 (Bottom right: Cross sectional view of the corresponding lesions -same scale used for all images). Benign precursory bubbles detected by acoustics preceded the occurrence of catastrophic boiling pops fig1 (Bottom left: Acoustic signal showing a precursory pop before the major cavitation).

Figure 1

Conclusion

The established parameters for power intensity and exposure time should be respected to maintain a safe procedure. Acoustics can be further implemented to provide a warning for electrophysiologists before the occurrence of a boiling pop.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The funding for this project was provided from the URB and the MPP at the AUBMC and the AUB.

Budget Impact of Treatment-Free Remission in Treating Chronic-Phase Philadelphia-Positive Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in Lebanon

PURPOSE

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) ranks second in terms of disease-related health care expenditures at the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) after breast cancer. With the introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), survival of patients with CML has dramatically improved and approached that of the normal population. In recent years, several studies demonstrated that patients who achieve a deep molecular response while receiving TKI therapy could safely attempt treatment-free remission (TFR), the new treatment goal in patients with CML. The objective is to estimate the budget impact of TFR at the MoPH.

METHODS

Analyses were done on 162 patients with CML receiving imatinib, nilotinib, or dasatinib, as first-line or second-line therapy, over a 4-year time horizon using MoPH drug pricing. The model assumed that patients could attempt TFR after 36 months of TKI therapy, where the last 24 months were at stable molecular response as per MoPH and National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines. Duration of TFR was based on European Stop Kinase Inhibitor treatment-free survival curve.

RESULTS

Out of the 162 patients, 83 were eligible to attempt TFR, 36 patients were not eligible, 32 patients were lost to follow-up, two patients died as a result of CML progression, and five died as a result of other causes. The total cost of CML treatment with TFR from the time of analysis and over 4 years can be reduced by more than 7 million US dollars (57%).

CONCLUSION

The model can be used to inform health care decision makers on the importance of TFR and the potential savings.

The Impact of Diurnal Fasting During Ramadan on Patients with Established Cardiac Disease: A Systematic Review

During the month of Ramadan, Muslims abstain from eating before dawn until after sunset for a month. This study reviews most recent literature on the effect of Ramadan fasting on the Cardiac patient specifically, excluding any study done on patients with no diagnosis of Cardiac disease to help cardiologists better deal with their patients who would wish to fast during Ramadan. As such, a Medline and Pubmed search was conducted to retrieve studies investigating the effects of fasting during Ramadan specifically on the cardiac patient with regard to incidence of cardiac disease and change in cardiovascular risk parameters. The search was conducted by combining the key word “Ramadan Fasting” with multiple cardiac diseases and cardiovascular risk parameters. Only studies reporting results on patients already diagnosed with a cardiac disease were included. fourteen were included. Most studies have shown, with a few exceptions, that Ramadan fasting has no adverse effects on incidence of cardiovascular disease or the number of hospitalizations due to cardiac disease events. Thus patients with controlled disease may fast with the consultation and monitoring of their physician.

Cost of Oncology Drugs in the Middle-Eastern Country of Lebanon: An Update (2014-2016)

PURPOSE

This study aims to evaluate trends in the increasing costs of oncology drugs procured by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) between 2014 and 2016 and to assess the impact of the introduction in mid-2015 of new immunotherapy drugs for the treatment of lung cancer on the overall and specific costs of that treatment.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of data from the MOPH Cancer Drug Scientific Committee data base was conducted using a total of 18,133 cancer files between 2014 and 2016.

RESULTS

Over the 3-year period, about $140 million (USD) was spent on cancer drugs by the MOPH free cancer drug dispensing program. The expenditures increased by 27% after immunotherapy was phased in. The average cost of drugs per patient per year measured across all cancer types increased from $7,000 in 2014 to $8,400 in 2016. Trastuzumab, approved for treating human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive breast cancer ranked first in total expenditures for 2014-2015. By 2016, two new immunotherapy drugs had topped the list: pembrolizumab ranked first and nivolumab ranked third, representing 64% of the total cost of lung cancer treatment and approximately 19% of the total yearly budget; beneficiaries represented only 3% of all patients.

CONCLUSION

This update documents the increasing financial impact of newer cancer drugs on the procurement process in the middle-income country of Lebanon. The trend is aligned with the financial burden of cancer drugs worldwide, which calls for a collaborative global response to this crisis.