Molecular Epidemiology of Carbapenem-Resistant K. pneumoniae Clinical Isolates from the Adult Patients with Comorbidities in a Tertiary Hospital, Southern Saudi Arabia

Hospitalized patients are likely to have chronic illnesses and are at an increased risk of mortality due to infection caused by MDR bacteria. We aimed to identify carbapenem-resistant genes carrying Klebsiella pneumoniae (K. pneumoniae) isolates and their risk factors recovered from adult patients with comorbidities. A cross-sectional study was carried out between April 2021 and December 2021 at King Abdullah Hospital (KAH) in Bisha province, Saudi Arabia. Seventy-one multi-drug resistant K. pneumoniae recovered from clinical samples and screened for carbapenemase genes of blaOXA-48-like, blaNDM-1, blaKPC, blaVIM, and blaIMP. Of 71 MDR K. pneumoniae examined, 47 (66.2%) isolates harbored various carbapenemase genes. The most prevalent single resistance gene was blaOXA-48-like (62.5%; n = 25), and 33.3% of them were recovered from sputum isolates. The blaNDM-1 gene was detected in 12 (30.0%) isolates, and eight of them were recovered from urine (n = 4) and blood (n = 4). Two (5.0%) single blaKPC genes were recovered from the sputum (n = 1) and blood (n = 1) isolates. In contrast, no blaIMP- and blaVIM-carrying isolates were detected. The co-existence of two resistance genes between blaOXA-48-like and blaNDM-1 was found in six strains, whereas only one strain was found to be produced in the three genes of blaNDM-1, blaKPC, and blaOXA-48-like. There were statistically significant associations between the presence of carbapenem-gene-carrying K. pneumoniae and patients' gender (χ2(1) = 5.94, p = 0.015), intensive care unit admission (χ2(1) = 7.649, p = 0.002), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (χ2(1) = 4.851, p = 0.028). The study highlighted the existence of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae, particularly blaOXA-48-like and blaNDM-1, in patients with comorbidities. Our findings emphasize the importance of the molecular characterization of resistance-determinant-carrying bacterial pathogens as a part of infection control and prevention in hospital settings.

Cardiac Toxicity of Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine in Patients With COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-regression Analysis

Objective

To systematically review the literature and to estimate the risk of chloroquine (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) cardiac toxicity in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

We searched multiple data sources including PubMed/MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid EBM Reviews, Scopus, and Web of Science and medrxiv.org from November 2019 through May 27, 2020. We included studies that enrolled patients with COVID-19 treated with CQ or HCQ, with or without azithromycin, and reported on cardiac toxic effects. We performed a meta-analysis using the arcsine transformation of the different incidences.

Results

A total of 19 studies with a total of 5652 patients were included. The pooled incidence of torsades de pointes arrhythmia, ventricular tachycardia, or cardiac arrest was 3 per 1000 (95% CI, 0-21; I ² =96%) in 18 studies with 3725 patients. Among 13 studies of 4334 patients, the pooled incidence of discontinuation of CQ or HCQ due to prolonged QTc or arrhythmias was 5% (95% CI, 1-11; I ² =98%). The pooled incidence of change in QTc from baseline of 60 milliseconds or more or QTc of 500 milliseconds or more was 9% (95% CI, 3-17; I ² =97%). Mean or median age, coronary artery disease, hypertension, diabetes, concomitant QT-prolonging medications, intensive care unit admission, and severity of illness in the study populations explained between-studies heterogeneity.

Conclusion

Treatment of patients with COVID-19 with CQ or HCQ is associated with an important risk of drug-induced QT prolongation and relatively higher incidence of torsades de pointes, ventricular tachycardia, or cardiac arrest. Therefore, these agents should not be used routinely in the management of COVID-19 disease. Patients with COVID-19 who are treated with antimalarials for other indications should be adequately monitored.

Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors use and development of lung cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

e13093

Background: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) are commonly prescribed medications for hypertension and heart failure. Generally, ACEIs are well-tolerated medications with reasonable safety profile making them a favorable choice by many clinicians. However, several studies with conflicting results have signaled an association between ACEIs use and the development of lung cancer. We sought to systematically review the literature and perform the first meta-analysis to study the risk of lung cancer among ACEI users. Methods: We performed a literature review by searching multiple databases. A random effect meta-analysis approach was used to pool the data and relative risk was used to calculate the overall effect estimate. Results: A total of 423 articles were identified but only 6 observational studies were included with a total of 872,220 patients (634,672. ACEIs users). The relative risk of lung cancer development among ACEIs users was 1.02 (CI 0.89-1.16) compared to non-ACEIs users. Conclusions: Current systematic review and meta-analysis show no significant association between ACEIs use and the development of lung cancer. The result of our meta-analysis provides further assurance to the health care providers regarding ACEIs use.

Workup and Management of Native and Prosthetic Valve Endocarditis

Infective endocarditis (IE) is associated with significant serious adverse outcomes including death. IE usually presents with diverse clinical picture and syndromic diagnoses including heart failure, stroke, and peripheral embolization. Given variable, vague, and syndromic presentations, the diagnosis of IE may be delayed for days to weeks. Maintaining a high index of suspicion among clinicians is the key to early recognition of the disease and prompt initiation of antimicrobial therapy to prevent IE-associated mortality and morbidity. Blood culture and echocardiography remain essential tools in the diagnosis of infective endocarditis. However, advances in molecular techniques, serology testing, computed tomography scan, and nuclear medicine have led to growth in the available tools that may aid in early diagnosis of infective endocarditis. Antimicrobial agents are the mainstay of IE therapy; however, as many as 50% of endocarditis cases will undergo valve surgery, even on an urgent or emergent basis.

Pattern, duration of stay, and outcomes of medical admissions: a report from teaching community hospital in Assir region, Saudi Arabia

Background: Population-based studies are the gold standard to understand the burden of different diseases, plan health care policy and resource allocation, and provide an accurate estimate of disease several disease indices including mortality. However, population-based studies are difficult to undertake in a resource-limited situation where no robust data bases and disease registries are available. Therefore, hospital-based cohorts may be used to inform about the community health.

Objectives: We sought to study the pattern of disease causing admission, hospital stay, and outcomes of medical admissions to King Abdullah Hospital in Bisha in order to inform clinicians, public health professionals, and policymakers about the current status of diseases within the community in Bisha.

Methods:This is a cross-sectional study including all adult patients aged above 18 years who were admitted to King Abdullah Hospital in Bisha, Assir region, to medical services including general internal medicine, general cardiology, nephrology, gastroenterology, rheumatology, and neurology during the study period between 1 June 2015 and 31 May 2016. Common causes of hospital admission, outcomes of hospitalization, and length of stay were estimated and the data were presented as frequency and percentage for categorical valve and mean and standard deviation for continuous variables.

Results: Cardiovascular diseases including stroke are considered the leading cause of hospital admission in a teaching community hospital in Bisha, Assir region. Diabetes mellitus and hypertension are prevalent comorbidities among hospitalized patients. Majority of admitted patients have improved and discharged home (83.3%). However, 6.7% were transferred to another facility, 4.1% have left against medical advice, and 5.9% died.

Conclusion: Health-related data bases and disease registries are urgently needed to precisely estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease in Assir region in Saudi Arabia. Lifestyle changes, healthy diet, aggressive management of hypertension and diabetes within the community, and allocating necessary resources are urgently to combat the growing burden of cardiovascular disease.

Temporal Trends of High-Intensity Statin Therapy Among Veterans Treated With Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood cholesterol guideline recommends high-intensity statin therapy among certain groups of patients, but full implementation of the guideline has not yet been satisfactory. We aimed to investigate the temporal trends and predictors of high-intensity statin therapy among veterans who had been treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and followed up by cardiologists within the Veterans Health Administrative system.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at the Veterans Health Administrative system including all patients >18 years old who had their PCI procedure between October 2010 and September 2016. National Veterans Health Administrative databases were used to retrieve study participant's demographics, comorbid conditions, statin type and dose within 90 days before and after the PCI procedure. There were 48 862 patients who underwent a PCI procedure during the study period. High-intensity statin use at 90 days post-PCI rose from 23% in 2010 to 37% before release of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guideline, then rose sharply to 80% by 2016. The projected 10-year risk of arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease events among our study population was projected to be ≈1841 fewer if the cohort had received high-intensity statin therapy versus moderate-intensity statin.

CONCLUSIONS

By 2016, the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood cholesterol guideline was well implemented among veterans who had a PCI procedure in the Veterans Health Administrative system, suggesting systems of care can be improved to increase rates of high-intensity statin initiation.

Assessment of physicians' awareness and knowledge of familial hypercholesterolemia in Saudi Arabia: Is there a gap?

Background

The scarcity of familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) cases reported in Saudi Arabia might be indicative of a lack of awareness of this common genetic disease among physicians.

Objective

To assess physicians’ awareness, practice, and knowledge of FH in Saudi Arabia.

Methods

This is a cross-sectional study conducted among physicians at four tertiary hospitals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between March 2016 and May 2016 using a self-administered questionnaire.

Results

A total of 294 physicians completed the survey (response rate 90.1%). Overall, 92.9% of the participants have poor knowledge of FH while only 7.1% have acceptable knowledge. The majority (68.7%) of physicians rated their familiarity with FH as average or above average, and these had higher mean knowledge scores than participants with self-reported below average familiarity (mean 3.4 versus 2.6) (P < 0.001). Consultant physicians were 4.2 times more likely to be familiar with FH than residents or registrars (OR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.9–9.1, P < 0.001). Physicians who currently managed FH patients had higher mean knowledge scores compared to those without FH patients in their care (3.5 versus 2.9) (P = 0.006). In addition, there were statistically significant differences between physicians’ mean knowledge scores and their ages, levels of training, and years in practice. Moreover, a substantial deficit was identified in the awareness of various clinical algorithms to diagnose patients with FH, cascade screening, specialist lipid services, and the existence of statin alternatives, such as proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors.

Conclusion

A substantial deficit was found in the awareness, knowledge, practice, and detection of FH among physicians in Saudi Arabia. Extensive educational programs are required to raise physician awareness and implement best practices; only then can the impact of these interventions on FH management and patient outcome be assessed.

The Use of Statins and Risk of Community-Acquired Pneumonia

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is still associated with a large burden and causes significant morbidity and mortality. Besides universal vaccination and antibiotic treatment, statins as adjunctive therapy may also have a beneficial role in the prevention and treatment of CAP. Our goal from this review is to discuss the epidemiology of CAP, and role of statins as adjunctive therapy in the development of CAP.

RECENT FINDINGS

Statins are lipid-lowering medications characterized by their ability to control hypercholesterolemia in addition to other pleiotropic effects that could explain their role in the pathogenesis of CAP. While most observational studies have shown that statins reduce risk of pneumonia in the general population, patients with diabetes, and recently in patients with myocardial infarction, no randomized controlled trial (RCT) to date has been conducted to assess the efficacy of statins to prevent development of CAP. Given the paucity of robust randomized evidence to assess statin use and the development of CAP, and considering conflicting results of the observational studies, we are not in favor of initiation of statins for either the prevention or treatment of CAP.

Indications of Surgery in Infective Endocarditis

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

Infective endocarditis (IE) is a serious disease with significant morbidity and mortality. Valve surgery is fundamental in the standard of care of selected IE patients. Indeed, valve surgery can be a lifesaving procedure in critically ill endocarditis patients. Our goal from this review is to discuss the indications of surgery in IE population and international cardiac societies' guideline recommendations.

RECENT FINDINGS

Though IE is an uncommon disease, its incidence is noted to be on rise in some parts of the world, and the disease is expected to continue to be a major health problem. Antimicrobials remain the mainstay of IE therapy, but as many as 50% of endocarditis patients will undergo surgical intervention. Heart failure most commonly from acute valvular insufficiency, uncontrolled and persistent infection, and recurrent embolic events are the major indications for valve surgery in IE population. Heart failure is by far the most common indication for surgery in IE patients. Despite the fact that many IE patients will require surgical interventions, most of the international societies' recommendations to perform valve surgery are based on observational studies or experts' opinion. Surgery plays a major role in the management of IE patients, and it is most commonly performed in patients with heart failure, persistent or uncontrolled infection, and recurrent emboli. Most of the current evidence supporting surgical intervention in IE patients is based on observational studies and experts' opinion. Randomized clinical trials are urgently needed to guide surgical therapy in IE.

Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background

The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013.

Methods

GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically.

Findings

The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred.

Interpretation

Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional burden of infective endocarditis, 1990-2010: a systematic review of the literature

Infective endocarditis (IE) is a life-threatening disease associated with serious complications. The GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study IE expert group conducted a systematic review of IE epidemiology literature to inform estimates of the burden on IE in 21 world regions in 1990 and 2010. The disease model of IE for the GBD 2010 study included IE death and 2 sequelae: stroke and valve surgery. Several medical and science databases were searched for IE epidemiology studies in GBD high-, low-, and middle-income regions published between 1980 and 2008. The epidemiologic parameters of interest were IE incidence, proportions of IE patients who developed stroke or underwent valve surgery, and case fatality. Literature searches yielded 1,975 unique papers, of which 115 published in 10 languages were included in the systematic review. Eligible studies were population-based (17%), multicenter hospital-based (11%), and single-center hospital-based studies (71%). Population-based studies were reported from only 6 world regions. Data were missing or sparse in many low- and middle-income regions. The crude incidence of IE ranged between 1.5 and 11.6 cases per 100,000 people and was reported from 10 countries. The overall mean proportion of IE patients that developed stroke was 0.158 ± 0.091, and the mean proportion of patients that underwent valve surgery was 0.324 ± 0.188. The mean case fatality risk was 0.211 ± 0.104. A systematic review for the GBD 2010 study provided IE epidemiology estimates for many world regions, but highlighted the lack of information about IE in low- and middle-income regions. More complete knowledge of the global burden of IE will require improved IE surveillance in all world regions.

Association between Preoperative Statin Therapy and Postoperative Infectious Complications in Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Infectious complications of cardiac surgery are often severe and life threatening. Statins having both immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects were intuitively thought to influence the development of postsurgical infections. We sought to systematically examine whether any association exists between statin use and risk of infectious complications in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, Thomson Scientific Web of Science, and Elsevier Scopus from inception through February 2011 for comparative studies examining the association between statin use and risk of postoperative infections in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We contacted a study's author for missing information. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis of individual studies' odds ratios (adjusted for potential confounders). We identified 6 cohort studies for inclusion, 3 of which were conducted in Canada and 3 of which were conducted in the United States. Four were single-center studies, and 2 were population based. Exposure ascertainment was based on a review of admission medication list or prescription databases. Infectious outcomes were heterogeneous and included surgical site infections within 30 days, serious infections (sepsis), or any other postoperative infection. Statin use in the preoperative period was associated with a trend toward reduction in the incidence of postoperative infections in patients who underwent cardiac surgery (odds ratio, 0.81 [95% confidence interval, 0.64–1.01]; P = .06; I2 = 75%). Heterogeneity was explained by country effect. Studies performed in Canada showed weaker associations than studies performed in the United States. This difference could not be attributed to study quality alone. We did not find good evidence to support an association between statin use and postoperative infectious complications. However, the trend toward statistical significance for this association indicates that further investigation is warranted.

The role of statins in prevention and treatment of community acquired pneumonia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging epidemiological evidence suggests that statins may reduce the risk of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and its complications.

PURPOSE

Performed a systematic review to address the role of statins in the prevention or treatment of CAP.

DATA SOURCE

Ovid MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus from inception through December 2011 were searched for randomized clinical trials, cohort and case-control studies.

STUDY SELECTION

Two authors independently reviewed studies that examined the role of statins in CAP.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data about study characteristics, adjusted effect-estimates and quality characteristics was extracted.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Eighteen studies corresponding to 21 effect-estimates (eight and 13 of which addressed the preventive and therapeutic roles of statins, respectively) were included. All studies were of good methodological quality. Random-effects meta-analyses of adjusted effect-estimates were used. Statins were associated with a lower risk of CAP, 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.95), I(2) = 90.5% and a lower short-term mortality in patients with CAP, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.59-0.78), I(2) = 75.7%. Meta-regression did not identify sources of heterogeneity. A funnel plot suggested publication bias in the treatment group, which was adjusted by a novel regression method with a resultant effect-estimate of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.77-0.93). Sensitivity analyses using the rule-out approach showed that it is unlikely that the results were due to an unmeasured confounder.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis reveals a beneficial role of statins for the risk of development and mortality associated with CAP. However, the results constitute very low quality evidence as per the GRADE framework due to observational study design, heterogeneity and publication bias.

Parental perceptions and beliefs about childhood asthma: a cross-sectional study

Aim

To assess parental perceptions and beliefs about asthma in children.

Methods

We invited 6000 children aged 3 to 15 years from different schools in Lebanon to participate in the study from September 2007 to May 2008. In the first phase, in order to determine the prevalence of asthma in children, parents of all participating children filled out a small questionnaire. In the second phase, only parents of children with asthma filled out a detailed questionnaire about their perceptions of asthma.

Results

Phase I included parents of 4051 children, 574 (14%) of whom had asthma and were recruited to phase II. Out of these, 389 parents entered the final data analysis. Around 54% of parents believed that asthma was hereditary and 7% believed it was contagious. When asked about triggering factors, 51% stated virus infection, 75% dust, and 17% food. Sixty percent of children with asthma lived with someone who smoked. Sixty-seven percent of parents believed that herbs had a role in asthma treatment and only 49% received asthma education. There was a significant difference in education level (P = 0.01) between the parents who denied the label of asthma (79%) and those who accepted it (21%). Sixty-seven percent of parents preferred oral over inhaler treatment, 48% believed inhalers were addictive, 56% worried about inhalers’ side effects, and 76% worried about using inhaled corticosteroids. Significantly more parents from rural (53%) than from urban areas (38%) believed that inhalers were addictive (P = 0.004).

Conclusion

Parents of children with asthma had considerable misperceptions about the use of inhalers and the safety of inhaled corticosteroids. To improve asthma care in children, it is necessary to provide adequate education to parents.

Transient osteoporosis of the hip/bone marrow edema syndrome with soft tissue involvement: a case report

Transient osteoporosis of the hip (TOH) is a rare condition mainly affecting pregnant women in their third trimester and middle aged men. We report a case of TOH/Bone marrow edema syndrome in pregnancy with involvement of the surrounding soft tissues on magnetic resonance image, which has not been previously reported. The presence of such edema in the soft tissues may help to differentiate this condition from early avascular necrosis of the hip, and may also provide an insight into the pathogenesis of the condition. The reported patient was treated conservatively and fully recovered.

Non prescribed sale of antibiotics in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: a cross sectional study

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics sales without medical prescriptions are increasingly recognized as sources of antimicrobial misuse that can exacerbate the global burden of antibiotic resistance. We aimed to determine the percentage of pharmacies who sell antibiotics without medical prescriptions, examining the potential associated risks of such practice in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, by simulation of different clinical scenarios.

METHODS

A cross sectional study of a quasi-random sample of pharmacies stratified by the five regions of Riyadh. Each pharmacy was visited once by two investigators who simulated having a relative with a specific clinical illness (sore throat, acute bronchitis, otitis media, acute sinusitis, diarrhea, and urinary tract infection (UTI) in childbearing aged women).

RESULTS

A total of 327 pharmacies were visited. Antibiotics were dispensed without a medical prescription in 244 (77.6%) of 327, of which 231 (95%) were dispensed without a patient request. Simulated cases of sore throat and diarrhea resulted in an antibiotic being dispensed in (90%) of encounters, followed by UTI (75%), acute bronchitis (73%), otitis media (51%) and acute sinusitis (40%). Metronidazole (89%) and ciprofloxacin (86%) were commonly given for diarrhea and UTI, respectively, whereas amoxicillin/clavulanate was dispensed (51%) for the other simulated cases. None of the pharmacists asked about antibiotic allergy history or provided information about drug interactions. Only 23% asked about pregnancy status when dispensing antibiotics for UTI-simulated cases.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed that an antibiotic could be obtained in Riyadh without a medical prescription or an evidence-based indication with associated potential clinical risks. Strict enforcement and adherence to existing regulations are warranted.

Stenotrophomonas maltophilia infections of intact skin: a systematic review of the literature

To highlight the importance of intact skin infection syndromes caused by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, we review 17 reported cases. Skin infection syndrome presentations included metastatic cellulitis (58%), primary cellulitis (23%), and ecthyma gangrenosum (17%). Associated risk factors were hematologic malignancies and chemotherapy (94%), neutropenia (94%), presence of central venous catheter (17%), and exposure to broad-spectrum antibiotics (84%). The diagnosis was supported by cultures of skin biopsy specimens (35%), blood cultures (24%), or both (41%). Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole was the treatment of choice (76%), and outcomes were favorable (71%).