The impact of changing the reference countries on the list prices for patented medicines in Canada: A policy analysis

BACKGROUND

Canada's Patented Medicine Prices Review Board (PMPRB) uses external and internal reference pricing (IRP) to regulate patented drug list prices. PMPRB has changed external reference countries from 7 to 11 to include countries with prices closer to the OECD median. We examined the impact on the list prices for patented medicines had the amendment been implemented from 2013.

METHODS

Using IQVIA MIDAS® quarterly sales data, we selected branded products that were launched in Canada in 2013-2018. The list price for each product in each country was calculated as its average annual price during the 3rd year post Canadian launch. The median international price (MIP) was the median of the list prices of PMPRB7 (MIP7) and PMPRB11 (MIP11). We assumed the same IRP would be (scenario 1) or would not be used (scenario 2).

RESULTS

Among the selected 400 products, 80.3 % (321) had MIP7 and MIP11 (launched in at least one reference country); 18.3 % did not have MIP11. The total current expenditures were $7,134.4 M. In scenario 1, MIP11 would not be binding for most products and expenditures would decline only by 0.7 %. If IRP were abolished, expenditures might decline by 14.1 % if the launching sequence would not change.

CONCLUSIONS

MIP11 might not be binding for most medicines. The impact depends on whether to retain the IRP and approaches taken for medicines without MIP11.

Correlates of Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infections in People with HIV: Results from the CIHR CTN 328 Study

COVID-19 breakthrough infection (BTI) can occur despite vaccination. Using a multi-centre, prospective, observational Canadian cohort of people with HIV (PWH) receiving ≥2 COVID-19 vaccines, we compared the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) and receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific IgG levels 3 and 6 months post second dose, as well as 1 month post third dose, in PWH with and without BTI. BTI was defined as positivity based on self-report measures (data up to last study visit) or IgG data (up to 1 month post dose 3). The self-report measures were based on their symptoms and either a positive PCR or rapid antigen test. The analysis was restricted to persons without previous COVID-19 infection. Persons without BTI remained COVID-19-naïve until ≥3 months following the third dose. Of 289 participants, 92 developed BTI (31.5 infections per 100 person-years). The median days between last vaccination and BTI was 128 (IQR 67, 176), with the most cases occurring between the third and fourth dose (n = 59), corresponding to the Omicron wave. In analyses adjusted for age, sex, race, multimorbidity, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, diabetes and obesity, a lower IgG S/RBD (log10 BAU/mL) at 1 month post dose 3 was significantly associated with BTI, suggesting that a lower IgG level at this time point may predict BTI in this cohort of PWH.

Preventative behaviours and COVID-19 infection in a Canadian cohort of people living with HIV

Few studies have examined preventative behaviour practices with respect to COVID-19 among people living with HIV (human immunodeficiency virus). Using a cross-sectional survey from a Canadian Institutes of Health Research Canadian HIV Trials Network study (CTN 328) of people living with HIV on vaccine immunogenicity, we examined the relationships between participant characteristics and behavioural practices intended to prevent COVID-19 infection. Participants living in four Canadian urban centers were enrolled between April 2021-January 2022, at which time they responded to a questionnaire on preventative behaviour practices. Questionnaire and clinical data were combined to explore relationships between preventive behaviours and (1) known COVID-19 infection pre-enrolment, (2) multimorbidity, (3) developing symptomatic COVID-19 infection, and (4) developing symptomatic COVID-19 infection during the Omicron wave. Among 375 participants, 49 had COVID-19 infection pre-enrolment and 88 post-enrolment. The proportion of participants reporting always engaging in preventative behaviours included 87% masking, 79% physical distancing, 70% limiting social gatherings, 65% limiting contact with at-risk individuals, 33% self-isolating due to symptoms, and 26% self-quarantining after possible exposure. Participants with known COVID-19 infection pre-enrolment were more likely to self-quarantine after possible exposure although asymptomatic (65.0% vs 23.4%, p < 0.001; Chi-square test). Participants with multiple comorbidities more likely endorsed physical distancing (85.7% vs 75.5%, p = 0.044; Chi-square test), although this was not significant in logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, race, number of household members, number of bedrooms/bathrooms in the household per person, influenza immunization, and working in close physical proximity to others. Overall, participants reported frequent practice of preventative behaviours.

Risk of COVID-19 hospitalization in people living with HIV and HIV-negative individuals and the role of COVID-19 vaccination: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the risk of hospitalization within 14 days of COVID-19 diagnosis among people living with HIV (PLWH) and HIV-negative individuals who had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

We used Cox proportional hazard models to compare the relative risk of hospitalization in PLWH and HIV-negative individuals. Then, we used propensity score weighting to examine the influence of sociodemographic factors and comorbid conditions on risk of hospitalization. These models were further stratified by vaccination status and pandemic period (pre-Omicron: December 15, 2020, to November 21, 2021; Omicron: November 22, 2021, to October 31, 2022).

RESULTS

The crude hazard ratio (HR) for risk of hospitalization in PLWH was 2.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.04-2.94). In propensity score-weighted models that included all covariates, the relative risk of hospitalization was substantially attenuated in the overall analyses (adjusted HR [aHR]: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.85-1.25), in vaccinated (aHR 1.00; 95% CI: 0.69-1.45), inadequately vaccinated (aHR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.76-1.41) and unvaccinated individuals (aHR: 1.15; 95% CI: 0.84-1.56).

CONCLUSION

PLWH had about two times the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization than HIV-negative individuals in crude analyses which attenuated in propensity score-weighted models. This suggests that the risk differential can be explained by sociodemographic factors and history of comorbidity, underscoring the need to address social and comorbid vulnerabilities (e.g., injecting drugs) that were more prominent among PLWH.

Antibody neutralization capacity after coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination in people with HIV in Canada

OBJECTIVES

Many vaccines require higher/additional doses or adjuvants to provide adequate protection for people with HIV (PWH). Here, we compare coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine-induced antibody neutralization capacity in PWH vs. HIV-negative individuals following two vaccine doses.

DESIGN

In Canadian prospective observational cohorts, including a multicentre study of PWH receiving at least two COVID-19 vaccinations (mRNA or ChAdOx1-S), and a parallel study of HIV-negative controls (Stop the Spread Ottawa Cohort), we measured vaccine-induced neutralization capacity 3 months post dose 2 (±1 month).

METHODS

COVID-19 neutralization efficiency was measured by calculating the half maximal inhibitory dilution (ID50) using a high-throughput protein-based neutralization assay for Ancestral (Wuhan), Delta and Omicron (BA.1) spike variants. Univariable and multivariable quantile regression were used to compare COVID-19-specific antibody neutralization capacity by HIV status.

RESULTS

Neutralization assays were performed on 256 PWH and 256 controls based on specimen availability at the timepoint of interest, having received two vaccines and known date of vaccination. There was a significant interaction between HIV status and previous COVID-19 infection status in median ID50. There were no differences in median ID50 for HIV+ vs. HIV-negative persons without past COVID-19 infection. For participants with past COVID-19 infection, median ICD50 was significantly higher in controls than in PWH for ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and Omicron variants, with a trend for the Delta variant in the same direction.

CONCLUSION

Vaccine-induced SARS-CoV-2 neutralization capacity was similar between PWH vs. HIV-negative persons without past COVID-19 infection, demonstrating favourable humoral-mediated immunogenicity. Both HIV+ and HIV-negative persons demonstrated hybrid immunity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov NCT04894448.

Patient-reported mental health and well-being trajectories in oncology patients during radiation therapy: an exploratory retrospective cohort analysis using the Ontario Cancer Registry

PURPOSE

Mental health and well-being trajectories are not expected to be homogeneous in diverse clinical populations. This exploratory study aims to identify subgroups of patients with cancer receiving radiation therapy who have different mental health and well-being trajectories, and examine which socio-demographic, physical symptoms, and clinical variables are associated with such trajectories.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of radiation therapy patients diagnosed with cancer in 2017 was conducted using data from the Ontario Cancer Registry (Canada) and linked with administrative health data. Mental health and well-being were measured using items from the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-revised questionnaire. Patients completed up to 6 repeated measurements. We used latent class growth mixture models to identify heterogeneous mental health trajectories of anxiety, depression, and well-being. Bivariate multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to explore variables associated with the latent classes (subgroups).

RESULTS

The cohort (N = 3416) with a mean age of 64.5 years consisted of 51.7% females. Respiratory cancer was the most common diagnosis (30.4%) with moderate to severe comorbidity burden. Four latent classes with distinct anxiety, depression, and well-being trajectories were identified. Decreasing mental health and well-being trajectories are associated with being female; living in neighborhoods with lower income, greater population density, and higher proportion of foreign-born individuals; and having higher comorbidity burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings highlight the importance of considering social determinants of mental health and well-being, in addition to symptoms and clinical variables, when providing care for patients undergoing radiation therapy.

People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Receiving Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy Show Typical Antibody Durability After Dual Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination and Strong Third Dose Responses

BACKGROUND

Longer-term humoral responses to 2-dose coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines remain incompletely characterized in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH), as do initial responses to a third dose.

METHODS

We measured antibodies against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein receptor-binding domain, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) displacement, and viral neutralization against wild-type and Omicron strains up to 6 months after 2-dose vaccination, and 1 month after the third dose, in 99 PLWH receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy and 152 controls.

RESULTS

Although humoral responses naturally decline after 2-dose vaccination, we found no evidence of lower antibody concentrations or faster rates of antibody decline in PLWH compared with controls after accounting for sociodemographic, health, and vaccine-related factors. We also found no evidence of poorer viral neutralization in PLWH after 2 doses, nor evidence that a low nadir CD4+ T-cell count compromised responses. Post-third-dose humoral responses substantially exceeded post-second-dose levels, though Omicron-specific responses were consistently weaker than responses against wild-type virus. Nevertheless, post-third-dose responses in PLWH were comparable to or higher than controls. An mRNA-1273 third dose was the strongest consistent correlate of higher post-third-dose responses.

CONCLUSION

PLWH receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy mount strong antibody responses after 2- and 3-dose COVID-19 vaccination. Results underscore the immune benefits of third doses in light of Omicron.

Modeling Tiered Pricing Frameworks: A Simulation Approach

OBJECTIVE

Drug plans take different approaches to determining reimbursement prices for generic drugs. One common approach is to set the maximum reimbursement price as a percentage of the price of the interchangeable branded drug. In many countries this percentage depends on the number of generic entrants, a model we call "tiered pricing." This paper seeks to enhance understanding of how to set the tiers.

METHODS

We construct a simple model of tiered pricing and set parameters to match evidence on generic drug costs and the distribution of revenues. Using simulation methods, we then assess different tier structures in terms of total surplus and average drug cost.

RESULTS

We find when tiers are bunched tightly together welfare outcomes are poor. Moreover, there are large welfare gains from increasing the number of tiers from one to two, and only small welfare gains from increasing the number of tiers beyond four.

CONCLUSIONS

The choice of tiers has substantial welfare and cost implications. While it is possible to refine the simulation analysis based on specific market characteristics, an optimal tier structure, such as the one we propose in the paper, should have at least two tiers.

Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine effectiveness among a population-based cohort of people living with HIV

OBJECTIVE

People with HIV were underrepresented in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine clinical trials. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection for the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and ChAdOx1 vaccines among a population-based cohort of people with HIV in Ontario, Canada.

DESIGN

Test-negative design.

METHODS

We identified people with HIV aged ≥19 years who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR between December 14, 2020 (first availability of COVID-19 vaccines) and November 21, 2021 (pre-Omicron circulation). Outcomes included any infection, symptomatic infection, and COVID-19-related hospitalization/death. We compared the odds of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls using multivariable logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, region, calendar time, SARS-CoV-2 test histories, influenza vaccination, comorbidities, and neighborhood-level socio-economic status. VE was derived as (1 - adjusted odds ratio) × 100%.

RESULTS

Among 21 023 adults living with HIV, there were 801 (8.3%) test-positive cases and 8,879 (91.7%) test-negative controls. 20.1% cases and 47.8% of controls received ≥1 COVID-19 vaccine dose; among two-dose recipients, 93.4% received ≥1 mRNA dose. Two-dose VE ≥7 days before specimen collection was 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 74-87%) against any infection, 94% (95% CI = 82-98%) against symptomatic infection, and 97% (95% CI = 85-100%) against hospitalization/death. Against any infection, VE declined from 86% (95% CI = 77-92%) within 7-59 days after the second dose to 66% (95% CI = -15-90%) after ≥180 days; we did not observe evidence of waning protection for other outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Two doses of COVID-19 vaccine offered substantial protection against symptomatic illness and hospitalization/death in people with HIV prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant. Our findings do not support a broad conclusion that COVID-19 VE is lower among people with HIV in populations that, for the most part, are attending HIV care, taking antiretroviral medication, and are virally suppressed.

Working From Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Association With Work Productivity Loss Among Patients and Caregivers

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to measure the association of working from home (WFH) with work productivity loss due to caregiving responsibilities or health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We conducted an online survey of family/friend caregivers (n = 150 WFH/75 non-WFH) and patients (n = 95/91) who worked during the past 7 days in May and July 2020, respectively. Absenteeism and presenteeism were measured using the Valuation of Lost Productivity questionnaire.

RESULTS

Working from home was associated with higher odds of absenteeism (odds ratio, 2.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 5.77) and presenteeism (2.79; 1.26 to 6.18) among caregivers and higher odds of presenteeism among patients (2.78; 1.13 to 6.84). However, among caregivers with absenteeism more than 0 days, WFH was significantly associated with fewer absent workdays.

CONCLUSIONS

Working from home was not associated with overall absenteeism and presenteeism in caregivers or patients. Working from home allows a more flexible and inclusive workplace without impacting productivity, although further research is needed.

Distinguishing symptom patterns in adults newly diagnosed with cancer: a latent class analysis

CONTEXT

Socio-demographic differences, including place of residence, socio-economic status, ethnicity, and gender, have been associated with various inequities in cancer care outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

The aims were to distinguish subgroups of patients with different symptom patterns at the time of the initial oncology visit and determine which clinical and socio-demographic variables are associated the different symptom patterns.

METHOD

Responses to the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale- revised and clinical and socio-demographic variables were obtained via the Ontario Cancer Registry and linked health data files. Latent class analyses were conducted to identify and compare the subgroups.

RESULTS

The cohort (n = 216,110) with a mean age of 64.5 years consisted of 54.1% women. The analyses identified six latent classes (proportions ranging from 0.09 to 0.31) with distinct symptom patterns, including: 1) many severe symptoms, 2) many less severe symptoms, 3) predominantly mild symptoms, 4) severe psychosocial symptoms, 5) severe somatic symptoms, 6) few symptoms. The subgroups were associated not only with clinical differences (diagnoses and functional status), but also with various socio-demographic (age, sex) and community characteristics (neighborhood income, proportion of foreign born, rurality).

CONCLUSION

The results indicated that there were substantial differences in symptom patterns at the time of the initial oncology visit, which were associated with both clinical diagnoses and socio-demographic differences. These results point to the importance of taking the social situation of patients into account, and not just diagnosis, to better understand differences in symptom patterns of people living with cancer.

People with HIV receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy show typical antibody durability after dual COVID-19 vaccination, and strong third dose responses

Background:

Longer-term humoral responses to two-dose COVID-19 vaccines remain incompletely characterized in people living with HIV (PLWH), as do initial responses to a third dose.

Methods:

We measured antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor-binding domain, ACE2 displacement and viral neutralization against wild-type and Omicron strains up to six months following two-dose vaccination, and one month following the third dose, in 99 PLWH receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy, and 152 controls.

Results:

Though humoral responses naturally decline following two-dose vaccination, we found no evidence of lower antibody concentrations nor faster rates of antibody decline in PLWH compared to controls after accounting for sociodemographic, health and vaccine-related factors. We also found no evidence of poorer viral neutralization in PLWH after two doses, nor evidence that a low nadir CD4+ T-cell count compromised responses. Post-third-dose humoral responses substantially exceeded post-second-dose levels, though anti-Omicron responses were consistently weaker than against wild-type. Nevertheless, post-third-dose responses in PLWH were comparable to or higher than controls. An mRNA-1273 third dose was the strongest consistent correlate of higher post-third-dose responses.

Conclusion:

PLWH receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy mount strong antibody responses after two- and three-dose COVID-19 vaccination. Results underscore the immune benefits of third doses in light of Omicron.

CTN 328: immunogenicity outcomes in people living with HIV in Canada following vaccination for COVID-19 (HIV-COV): protocol for an observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Most existing vaccines require higher or additional doses or adjuvants to provide similar protection for people living with HIV (PLWH) compared with HIV-uninfected individuals. Additional research is necessary to inform COVID-19 vaccine use in PLWH.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This multicentred observational Canadian cohort study will enrol 400 PLWH aged >16 years from Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver. Subpopulations of PLWH of interest will include individuals: (1) >55 years of age; (2) with CD4 counts <350 cells/mm3; (3) with multimorbidity (>2 comorbidities) and (4) 'stable' or 'reference' PLWH (CD4 T cells >350 cells/mm3, suppressed viral load for >6 months and <1 comorbidity). Data for 1000 HIV-negative controls will be obtained via a parallel cohort study (Stop the Spread Ottawa), using similar time points and methods. Participants receiving >1 COVID-19 vaccine will attend five visits: prevaccination; 1 month following the first vaccine dose; and at 3, 6 and 12 months following the second vaccine dose. The primary end point will be the percentage of PLWH with COVID-19-specific antibodies at 6 months following the second vaccine dose. Humoral and cell-mediated immune responses, and the interplay between T cell phenotypes and inflammatory markers, will be described. Regression techniques will be used to compare COVID-19-specific immune responses to determine whether there are differences between the 'unstable' PLWH group (CD4 <350 cells/mm3), the stable PLWH cohort and the HIV-negative controls, adjusting for factors believed to be associated with immune response. Unadjusted analyses will reveal whether there are differences in driving factors associated with group membership.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research ethics boards at all participating institutions have granted ethics approval for this study. Written informed consent will be obtained from all study participants prior to enrolment. The findings will inform the design of future COVID-19 clinical trials, dosing strategies aimed to improve immune responses and guideline development for PLWH.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04894448.

Humoral immune responses to COVID-19 vaccination in people living with HIV receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy

Humoral responses to COVID-19 vaccines in people living with HIV (PLWH) remain incompletely understood. We measured circulating antibodies against the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, ACE2 displacement and live viral neutralization activities one month following the first and second COVID-19 vaccine doses in 100 adult PLWH and 152 controls. All PLWH were receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy, with median CD4+ T-cell counts of 710 (IQR 525-935) cells/mm 3 . Nadir CD4+ T-cell counts ranged as low as <10 (median 280; IQR 120-490) cells/mm 3 . After adjustment for sociodemographic, health and vaccine-related variables, HIV infection was significantly associated with 0.2 log 10 lower anti-RBD antibody concentrations (p=0.03) and ∼11% lower ACE2 displacement activity (p=0.02), but not lower viral neutralization (p=0.1) after one vaccine dose. Following two doses however, HIV was no longer significantly associated with the magnitude of any response measured. Rather, older age, a higher burden of chronic health conditions, and having received two ChAdOx1 doses (versus a heterologous or dual mRNA vaccine regimen) were independently associated with lower responses. After two vaccine doses, no significant correlation was observed between the most recent or nadir CD4+ T-cell counts and vaccine responses in PLWH. These results suggest that PLWH with well-controlled viral loads on antiretroviral therapy and CD4+ T-cell counts in a healthy range will generally not require a third COVID-19 vaccine dose as part of their initial immunization series, though other factors such as older age, co-morbidities, vaccine regimen type, and durability of vaccine responses will influence when this group may benefit from additional doses. Further studies of PLWH who are not receiving antiretroviral treatment and/or who have low CD4+ T-cell counts are needed.

Valuation of Lost Productivity in Caregivers: A Validation Study

Objective

This study aimed to: (a) adapt the previously validated Valuation of Lost Productivity (VOLP) questionnaire for people with health problems, to a caregiver version to measure productivity losses associated with caregiving responsibilities, and (b) evaluate measurement feasibility and validity of an online version of the caregiver VOLP questionnaire.

Methods

A mixed methods design was utilized. Qualitative methods, such as reviewing existing questionnaires that measured caregiver work productivity losses and performing one-on-one interviews with caregivers, were used for VOLP adaptation and online conversion. Quantitative methods were used to evaluate feasibility and validity of the online VOLP. The Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) questionnaire for caregivers was included to compare its absenteeism and presenteeism outcomes and their correlations with VOLP outcomes.

Results

When adapting the VOLP for caregivers, our qualitative analysis showed the importance of adding three major components: caregiving time, work productivity loss related to volunteer activities and caregivers’ lost job opportunities. A total of 383 caregivers who completed online survey were included in our final quantitative analysis. We found small Spearman rank correlations between VOLP and WPAI, observing a larger correlation between their absenteeism [r = 0.49 (95% confidence interval: 0.37–0.60)] than their presenteeism [r = 0.36 (0.24–0.47)]. Correlations between VOLP outcomes and total caregiving hours were larger for absenteeism [r = 0.38 (0.27–0.47)] than presenteeism [r = 0.22 (0.10–0.34)]. Correlations between WPAI outcomes and total caregiving hours were smaller for absenteeism [r = 0.27 (0.15–0.38)] than presenteeism [r = 0.35 (0.23–0.46)].

Conclusion

The study provides evidence of the feasibility and preliminary validity evidence of the adapted VOLP caregiver questionnaire in measuring productivity losses due to caregiving responsibilities, when compared with the results for WPAI and the results from the previous patient-VOLP validation study.

Comparing the use of aggregate data and various methods of integrating individual patient data to network meta-analysis and its application to first-line ART

Background

The 2018 World Health Organization HIV guidelines were based on the results of a network meta-analysis (NMA) of published trials. This study employed individual patient-level data (IPD) and aggregate data (AgD) and meta-regression methods to assess the evidence supporting the WHO recommendations and whether they needed any refinements.

Methods

Access to IPD from three trials was granted through ClinicalStudyDataRequest.com (CSDR). Seven modelling approaches were applied and compared: 1) Unadjusted AgD network meta-analysis (NMA) – the original analysis; 2) AgD-NMA with meta-regression; 3) Two-stage IPD-AgD NMA; 4) Unadjusted one-stage IPD-AgD NMA; 5) One-stage IPD-AgD NMA with meta-regression (one-stage approach); 6) Two-stage IPD-AgD NMA with empirical-priors (empirical-priors approach); 7) Hierarchical meta-regression IPD-AgD NMA (HMR approach). The first two were the models used previously. Models were compared with respect to effect estimates, changes in the effect estimates, coefficient estimates, DIC and model fit, rankings and between-study heterogeneity.

Results

IPD were available for 2160 patients, representing 6.5% of the evidence base and 3 of 24 edges. The aspect of the model affected by the choice of modeling appeared to differ across outcomes. HMR consistently generated larger intervals, often with credible intervals (CrI) containing the null value. Discontinuations due to adverse events and viral suppression at 96 weeks were the only two outcomes for which the unadjusted AgD NMA would not be selected. For the first, the selected model shifted the principal comparison of interest from an odds ratio of 0.28 (95% CrI: 10.17, 0.44) to 0.37 (95% CrI: 0.23, 0.58). Throughout all outcomes, the regression estimates differed substantially between AgD and IPD methods, with the latter being more often larger in magnitude and statistically significant.

Conclusions

Overall, the use of IPD often impacted the coefficient estimates, but not sufficiently as to necessitate altering the final recommendations of the 2018 WHO Guidelines. Future work should examine the features of a network where adjustments will have an impact, such as how much IPD is required in a given size of network.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01254-5.

The Impact of Tiered-Pricing Framework on Generic Entry in Canada

Background: Generic drug prices have been capped at specified percentages of the interchangeable branded drug’s price by the Canadian provincial public drug plans since 1993. The Pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance, formed as a coalition by the provinces/territories in Canada, implemented an alternative approach, a tiered-pricing framework (TPF) for new generic drugs on April 1, 2014, under which the percentage varies with the number of generic firms in each market. We evaluate the impact of the TPF on generic entry, ie, listing in public drug plans in Canada.

Methods: Our study compared the pre-TPF period (01/01/2012-03/31/2014) with the TPF period (04/01/2014- 06/30/2016). Prescription drugs from nine provincial public drug plans were grouped into a "market" if they had the same active ingredient and strength, route of administration, and dosage form. Each "market" was contestable by generics and met the eligibility criteria for TPF. At the "market" level, Cox proportional-hazards models with time-varying covariates were used to measure the impact of the TPF on the first generic listing in any provincial public drug plan in Canada relative to the first launch date worldwide.

Results: A total of 189 markets in Canada were selected for the analyses. Generic drugs in small markets were more likely to be listed in Canada during the TPF period compared to the pre-TPF period (hazard ratio [HR], 95% CI: 3.81, 1.51-9.62). There was no significant difference in generic drug listings in large markets between the two policy periods.

Conclusion: TPF speeds up generic entry in small markets and generates the benefits of generic competition while avoiding the pitfalls of the previously employed price-cap regulations.

Factors associated with drug shortages in Canada: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

To monitor the magnitude of the drug shortage problem in Canada, since 2017, Health Canada has required manufacturers to report drug shortages. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with drug shortages in Canada.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all prescription drugs available on the market between Mar. 14, 2017, and Sept. 12, 2018, in Canada. All drugs of the same active ingredient, dosage form, route of administration and strength were grouped into a "market." Our main outcome was shortages at the market level, determined using the Drug Shortages Canada database. We used logistic regression to identify associated factors such as market structure, route or dosage form, and Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification.

RESULTS

Among the 3470 markets included in our analysis, 13.3% were reported to be in shortage. Markets with a single generic manufacturer were more likely to be in shortage than other markets. Markets with oral nonsolid route or dosage form were more likely to be in shortage than those that were oral solid with regular release (odds ratio [OR] 1.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11 to 2.49). Markets for sensory organs were more likely to be in shortage than most other ATC classes. Markets with a higher proportion of drugs covered by public insurance programs were more likely to be in shortage (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.05 per 10% increase).

INTERPRETATION

Markets with a single generic manufacturer were most likely to be in shortage. To ensure the security of drug supply, governments should be vigilant in monitoring markets with a single generic manufacturer, with complex manufacturing processes, with higher demand from public programs or those that are in certain ATC classes.

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal screening and diagnostic strategies for Down syndrome: A microsimulation modeling analysis

Objectives

Down syndrome (DS) is the most frequently occurring fetal chromosomal abnormality and different prenatal screening strategies are used for determining risk of DS worldwide. New non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT), which uses cell-free fetal DNA in maternal blood can provide benefits due to its higher sensitivity and specificity in comparison to conventional screening tests. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of using population-level NIPT in fetal aneuploidy screening for DS.

Methods

We developed a microsimulation decision-analytic model to perform a probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of prenatal screening and diagnostic strategies for DS. The model followed individual simulated pregnant women through the pregnancy pathway. The comparators were serum-only screening, contingent NIPT (i.e., NIPT as a second-tier screening test) and universal NIPT (i.e., NIPT as a first-tier screening test). To address uncertainty around the model parameters, the expected values of costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in the base case and all scenario analyses were obtained through probabilistic analysis from a Monte Carlo simulation.

Results

Base case and scenario analyses were conducted by repeating the micro-simulation 1,000 times for a sample of 45,605 pregnant women per the population of British Columbia, Canada (N = 4.8 million). Preliminary results of the sequential CEAs showed that contingent NIPT was a dominant strategy compared to serum-only screening. Compared with contingent NIPT, universal NIPT at the current test price was not cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio over $100,000/QALY. Contingent NIPT also had the lowest cost per DS case detected among these three strategies.

Conclusion

Including NIPT in existing prenatal screening for DS is shown to be beneficial over conventional testing. However, at current prices, implementation of NIPT as a second-tier screening test is more cost-effective than deploying it as a universal test.

Hepatitis C virus treatment in people who inject drugs (PWID) in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Given the considerable social marginalization experienced by people who inject drugs (PWID), treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in this population presents unique challenges. This study assessed the feasibility of treating HCV infection with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) medications among PWID receiving harm reduction services from a Drop-in-Center in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

METHODS

In this prospective study conducted between December 2016 and May 2018, 200 PWID with either recent injecting drug use (i.e., within the previous two months) or a history of injecting drug use and are currently receiving opioid substitution therapy were recruited. Blood was collected to conduct relevant laboratory tests. Eligible PWID who tested positive for HCV RNA (n = 55), were provided daily daclatasvir (60 mg) and sofosbuvir (400 mg) for 12 weeks after which adherence level, sustained virologic response (SVR), and reinfection were assessed.

RESULTS

At baseline, 40% (n = 79) of the 200 participants recruited to the study tested positive for antibodies to HCV and 34% (n = 68) had detectable HCV RNA in their blood. Of 55 eligible PWID who initiated treatment, 93% (n = 51) completed treatment while 87% (n = 48) were available for follow-up SVR assessment, all of whom achieved SVR. Thus, intent-to-treat SVR was 87% and the modified intent-to-treat SVR was 100% with one reinfection (4•2 cases per 100 person-years). Further, 75% (i.e., 41 out of the 55 participants) were at least 90% adherent to therapy.

CONCLUSION

Our findings strongly suggest that HCV treatment using sofosbuvir+daclatasvir for PWID enrolled in existing harm reduction programs in Bangladesh is feasible but may require additional interventions such as Opioid Substitution Therapy, intense follow up by outreach workers, and services and counselling provided by full time clinicians.

Effects of health status on work exit and absenteeism among the older working population in China: a secondary analysis of a cohort sample

OBJECTIVES

To analyse the effects of health status on work exit and absenteeism among the older working population in China.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a cohort sample.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Community samples who engaged in either agricultural or non-agriculture work or both in the 2011 wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and whose age was 45-55 years for women or 45-60 years for men in the 2013 wave.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Work exit and number of absent workdays due to health problems in 2013. To address the problems of measurement error of self-rated health status, we used disability condition, number of chronic diseases and functional limitation to construct an index of health. We divided the sample into four groups according to gender and work types (farmers who conducted any agricultural work in 2011 vs non-farmers who conducted non-agricultural work only) and conducted analyses separately.

RESULTS

Farmers (11.0% for women and 4.9% for men) were less likely to exit from work than non-farmers (18.5% and 12.0%, respectively) but took more absent workdays (16.6 days for women and 15.0 days for men) than non-farmers (5.6 and 4.9). Poor health status in 2011 was significantly associated with the work exit in 2013 of female and male farmers but not non-farmers. Older workers (except female non-farmers) with persistently poor health or recent health deterioration over time were significantly more likely to stop working or missed more workdays than those with persistently good health.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor 2-year lagged health predicts work exit for both male and female farmers, and increases the absent work days in all older working population. Persistently poor health or recent health deterioration over time has detrimental impact on labour market in terms of work exit and absenteeism among all older Chinese workers except for female non-farmers.

Role of Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs in the Association Between Osteoarthritis and Cardiovascular Diseases: A Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate the role of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in the increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among osteoarthritis (OA) patients.

METHODS

This longitudinal study was based on linked health administrative data from British Columbia, Canada. From a population-based cohort of 720,055 British Columbians, we selected 7,743 OA patients and 23,229 age- and sex-matched non-OA controls. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the risk of developing incident CVD (primary outcome) as well as ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, and stroke (secondary outcomes). To estimate the mediating effect of NSAIDs, defined as current use of an NSAID according to linked PharmaNet data, in the OA-CVD relationship, we implemented a marginal structural model.

RESULTS

OA patients had a higher risk of developing CVD than controls without OA. After adjusting for socioeconomic status, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and Romano comorbidity score, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.23 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.17-1.28). The adjusted HRs for congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were 1.42 (95% CI 1.33-1.51), 1.17 (95% CI 1.10-1.26), and 1.14 (95% CI 1.07-1.22), respectively. Approximately 41% of the total effect of OA on increased CVD risk was mediated through NSAIDs. For the secondary outcomes, the proportion mediated through NSAIDs was 23%, 56%, and 64% for congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this first study to evaluate the mediating role of NSAIDs in the relationship between OA and CVD suggest that NSAID use contributes substantially to the OA-CVD association.

Early cost-effectiveness modeling for better decisions in public research investment of personalized medicine technologies

Millions of dollars are spent on the development of new personalized medicine technologies. While these research costs are often supported by public research funds, many diagnostic tests and biomarkers are not adopted by the healthcare system due to lack of evidence on their cost-effectiveness. We describe a stepwise approach to conducting cost-effectiveness analyses that are performed early in the technology's development process and can help mitigate the potential risks of investment. Decision analytic modeling can identify the key drivers of cost effectiveness and provide minimum criteria that the technology needs to meet for adoption by public and private healthcare systems. A value of information analysis can quantify the added value of conducting more research to provide further evidence for policy decisions. These steps will allow public research funders to make better decisions on their investments to maximize the health benefits and to minimize the number of suboptimal technologies.

Output from the CIHR Canadian HIV Trials Network international postdoctoral fellowship for capacity building in HIV clinical trials

As a response to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic and part of Canadian Institutes for Health Research’s mandate to support international health research capacity building, the Canadian Institutes for Health Research Canadian HIV Trial Network (CTN) developed an international postdoctoral fellowship award under the CTN’s Postdoctoral Fellowship Awards Program to support and train young HIV researchers in resource-limited settings. Since 2010, the fellowship has been awarded to eight fellows in Cameroon, China, Lesotho, South Africa, Uganda and Zambia. These fellows have conducted research on a wide variety of topics and have built a strong network of collaboration and scientific productivity, with 40 peer-reviewed publications produced by six fellows during their fellowships. They delivered two workshops at international conferences and have continued to secure funding for their research, using the fellowship as a stepping stone. The CTN has been successful in building local HIV research capacity and forming a strong network of like-minded junior low- and middle-income country researchers with high levels of research productivity. They have developed into mentors, supervisors and faculty members, who, in turn, build local capacity. The sustainability of this international fellowship award relies on the recognition of its strengths and the involvement of other stakeholders for additional resources.

Cost-effectiveness of hydromorphone for severe opioid use disorder: findings from the SALOME randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous research has found diacetylmorphine, delivered under supervision, to be cost-effective in the treatment of severe opioid use disorder, but diacetylmorphine is not available in many settings. The Study to Assess Long-term Opioid Maintenance Effectiveness (SALOME) randomized controlled trial provided evidence that injectable hydromorphone is non-inferior to diacetylmorphine. The current study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of hydromorphone directly with diacetylmorphine and indirectly with methadone maintenance treatment.

DESIGN

A within-trial analysis was conducted using the patient level data from the 6-month, double-blind, non-inferiority SALOME trial. A life-time analysis extrapolated costs and outcomes using a decision analytical cohort model. The model incorporated data from a previous trial to include an indirect comparison to methadone maintenance.

SETTING

A supervised clinic in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 202 long-term street opioid injectors who had at least two attempts at treatment, including one with methadone (or other substitution), were randomized to hydromorphone (n = 100) or diacetylmorphine (n = 102).

MEASUREMENTS

We measured the utilization of drugs, visits to health professionals, hospitalizations, criminal activity, mortality and quality of life. This enabled us to estimate incremental costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness ratios from a societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses considered different sources of evidence, assumptions and perspectives.

FINDINGS

The within-trial analysis found hydromorphone provided similar QALYs to diacetylmorphine [0.377, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.361-0.393 versus 0.375, 95% CI = 0.357-0.391], but accumulated marginally greater costs [$49 830 ($28 401-73 637) versus $34 320 ($21 780-55 998)]. The life-time analysis suggested that both diacetylmorphine and hydromorphone provide more benefits than methadone [8.4 (7.4-9.5) and 8.3 (7.2-9.5) versus 7.4 (6.5-8.3) QALYs] at lower cost [$1.01 million ($0.6-1.59 million) and $1.02 million ($0.72-1.51 million) versus $1.15 million ($0.71-1.84 million)].

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with severe opioid use disorder enrolled into the SALOME trial, injectable hydromorphone provided similar outcomes to injectable diacetylmorphine. Modelling outcomes during a patient's life-time suggested that injectable hydromorphone might provide greater benefit than methadone alone and may be cost-saving, with drug costs being offset by costs saved from reduced involvement in criminal activity.

The design and rationale of SAVE BC: The Study to Avoid CardioVascular Events in British Columbia

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is highly heritable, particularly when it occurs at a young age. The screening of individuals with premature ASCVD, although often recommended, is not routinely performed. Strategies to address this gap in care are essential. We designed the Study to Avoid CardioVascular Events in British Columbia (SAVE BC) as a prospective, observational study of individuals with a new diagnosis of very premature ASCVD (defined as age ≤ 50 years in males and age ≤ 55 years in females) and their first-degree relatives (FDRs) and spouses. FDRs and spouses will undergo screening for cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and subclinical ASCVD using a structured screening algorithm. All subjects will be followed longitudinally for ≥10 years. The overall goal of SAVE BC is to evaluate the yield of a structured screening program for identifying individuals at risk of premature ASCVD. The primary objectives of SAVE BC are to identify and follow index cases with very premature ASCVD and their FDRs and to determine the diagnostic yield of a structured screening program for these individuals. We will collect data on CV risk factors, medication use, CV events, and healthcare costs in these individuals. SAVE BC will provide insight regarding approaches to identify individuals at risk for premature ASCVD with implications for prevention and treatment in this population.

The association between nicotine dependence and physical health among people receiving injectable diacetylmorphine or hydromorphone for the treatment of chronic opioid use disorder

INTRODUCTION

People with chronic opioid use disorder often present to treatment with individual and structural vulnerabilities and remain at risk of reporting adverse health outcomes. This risk is greatly compounded by tobacco smoking, which is highly prevalent among people with chronic opioid use disorder. Despite the known burden of tobacco smoking on health, the relationship between nicotine dependence and health has not been studied among those receiving injectable opioid agonist treatment. As such, the present study aims to explore the association between nicotine dependence and physical health among participants of the Study to Assess Longer-Term Opioid Medication Effectiveness (SALOME) at baseline and six-months.

METHODS

SALOME was a double-blind phase III clinical trial testing the non-inferiority of injectable hydromorphone to injectable diacetylmorphine for chronic opioid use disorder. Participants reporting tobacco smoking were included in a linear regression analysis of physical health at baseline (before receiving treatment) and at six-months.

RESULTS

At baseline, nicotine dependence score, lifetime history of emotional, physical, or sexual abuse and prior month safe injection site access were independently and significantly associated with physical health. At six-months nicotine dependence score was the only variable that maintained this significant and independent association with physical health.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings indicate that after six-months, the injectable treatment effectively brought equity to patients' physical health status, yet the association with nicotine dependence remained. Findings could inform whether the provision of treatment for nicotine dependence should be made a priority in settings where injectable opioid agonist treatment is delivered to achieve improvements in overall physical health in this population.

Influenza vaccination for HIV-positive people: Systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

People with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are highly susceptible to influenza-related morbidity and mortality. In order to assess comparative efficacy of influenza vaccine strategies among HIV-positive people, we performed a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA).

METHODS

In this systematic review, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and CINAHL between 1946 and July 2015 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on influenza vaccines for HIV-positive adults reporting seroconversion or seroprotection outcomes. The NMAs were conducted within a Bayesian framework and logistic models were used for comparing the effect of the vaccine strategies on the two outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 1957 publications were identified, 143 were selected for full review, and 13 RCTs were included in our final analysis. Fourteen separate NMAs were conducted by outcomes, vaccine strain, and different outcome measurement timepoints. For example, compared with the 15 μg single vaccine strategy, the odds ratio was the highest for the adjuvant 7.5 μg booster strategy (2.99 [95% credible interval 1.18-7.66]) when comparing seroconversion for H1N1 at 14-41 days after the last dose of vaccination and for the 60 μg single strategy (2.33 [1.31-4.18]) when comparing seroconversion for strain B.

CONCLUSIONS

The adjuvant 7.5 μg booster and 60 μg single vaccine strategies provided better seroconversion and seroprotection outcomes. These findings have important implications for national and international guidelines for influenza vaccination for HIV-positive people and future research.

Valuing productivity loss due to absenteeism: firm-level evidence from a Canadian linked employer-employee survey

In health economic evaluation studies, to value productivity loss due to absenteeism, existing methods use wages as a proxy value for marginal productivity. This study is the first to test the equality between wage and marginal productivity losses due to absenteeism separately for team workers and non-team workers. Our estimates are based on linked employer-employee data from Canada. Results indicate that team workers are more productive and earn higher wages than non-team workers. However, the productivity gap between these two groups is considerably larger than the wage gap. In small firms, employee absenteeism results in lower productivity and wages, and the marginal productivity loss due to team worker absenteeism is significantly higher than the wage loss. No similar wage-productivity gap exists for large firms. Our findings suggest that productivity loss or gain is most likely to be underestimated when valued according to wages for team workers. The findings help to value the burden of illness-related absenteeism. This is important for economic evaluations that seek to measure the productivity gain or loss of a health care technology or intervention, which in turn can impact policy makers' funding decisions.

Adherence to Antitumor Necrosis Factor Use Recommendations in Spondyloarthritis: Measurement and Effect in the DESIR Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate a classification system to define adherence to axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) use recommendations and examine the effect of adherence on outcomes in the DESIR cohort (Devenir des Spondylarthropathies Indifférenciées Récentes).

METHODS

Using alternate definitions of adherence, patients were classified as adherent "timely" anti-TNF users, nonadherent "late" anti-TNF users, adherent nonusers ("no anti-TNF need"), non-adherent nonusers ("unmet anti-TNF need"). Multivariate models were fitted to examine the effect of adherence on quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), total costs, and nonbiologic costs 1 year following an index date. Generalized linear regression models assuming a γ-distribution with log link were used for costs outcomes and linear regression models for QALY outcomes.

RESULTS

Using the main definition of adherence, there were no significant differences between late anti-TNF users and timely anti-TNF users in total costs (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.54-1.36, p = 0.516) or nonbiologic costs (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.44-1.18, p = 0.187). However, in the sensitivity analysis, late anti-TNF users had significantly increased nonbiologic costs compared with timely users (RR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36, p = 0.026). In the main analysis, there were no significant differences in QALY between timely anti-TNF users and late anti-TNF users, or between timely users and patients with unmet anti-TNF need. In the sensitivity analysis, patients with unmet anti-TNF need had significantly lower QALY than timely anti-TNF users (-0.04, 95% CI -0.07 to -0.01, p = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

The effect of adherence to anti-TNF recommendations on outcomes was sensitive to the definition of adherence used, highlighting the need to validate methods to measure adherence.

Distribution and Drivers of Average Direct Cost of Osteoarthritis in Canada From 2003 to 2010

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the distribution and drivers of the average direct cost of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada using a population-based health microsimulation model of OA from 2003 to 2010.

METHODS

We used a previously published microsimulation model to estimate the distribution of average cost of OA across different cost components and OA stages. OA stages were defined according to the patient flow within the health care system. Cost components associated with pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic treatments, physician visits, and hospitalization were included. Scenario analysis was performed to evaluate average cost drivers from 2003 to 2010.

RESULTS

During the study period, the OA population size grew from 2.9 to 3.6 million, while the average cost increased from $577 to $811 (Canadian) per patient per year. The highest increase in share of cost components was for total joint replacement (TJR) surgery (24% to 32%). The highest average cost was incurred by patients in stage 4 (during and after revision surgery), while around 80% of OA patients were in stage 1 (OA diagnosed but has not visited an orthopedic surgeon). Increase in the proportion of OA patients receiving TJR surgeries (34%) and price inflation (29%) were the most significant drivers of average cost.

CONCLUSION

The average cost of OA has been increasing during the study period mostly due to an increase in the proportion of patients receiving TJR surgeries and price inflation. The distribution of average cost of OA across disease stages needs to be considered when designing policies targeting specific aspects of OA care.

Triple Therapy Versus Biologic Therapy for Active Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

The RACAT (Rheumatoid Arthritis Comparison of Active Therapies) trial found triple therapy to be noninferior to etanercept-methotrexate in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of etanercept-methotrexate versus triple therapy as a first-line strategy.

DESIGN

A within-trial analysis based on the 353 participants in the RACAT trial and a lifetime analysis that extrapolated costs and outcomes by using a decision analytic cohort model.

DATA SOURCES

The RACAT trial and sources from the literature.

TARGET POPULATION

Patients with active RA despite at least 12 weeks of methotrexate therapy.

TIME HORIZON

24 weeks and lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Societal and Medicare.

INTERVENTION

Etanercept-methotrexate first versus triple therapy first.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

The within-trial analysis found that etanercept-methotrexate as first-line therapy provided marginally more QALYs but accumulated substantially higher drug costs. Differences in other costs between strategies were negligible. The ICERs for first-line etanercept-methotrexate and triple therapy were $2.7 million per QALY and $0.98 million per QALY over 24 and 48 weeks, respectively. The lifetime analysis suggested that first-line etanercept-methotrexate would result in 0.15 additional lifetime QALY, but this gain would cost an incremental $77 290, leading to an ICER of $521 520 per QALY per patient.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Considering a long-term perspective, an initial strategy of etanercept-methotrexate and biologics with similar cost and efficacy is unlikely to be cost-effective compared with using triple therapy first, even under optimistic assumptions.

LIMITATION

Data on the long-term benefit of triple therapy are uncertain.

CONCLUSION

Initiating biologic therapy without trying triple therapy first increases costs while providing minimal incremental benefit.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

The Cooperative Studies Program, Department of Veterans Affairs Office of Research and Development, Canadian Institutes for Health Research, and an interagency agreement with the National Institutes of Health-American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

Mapping MOS-HIV to HUI3 and EQ-5D-3L in Patients With HIV

Objectives: The Medical Outcomes Study HIV Health Survey (MOS-HIV) is frequently used in HIV clinical trials; however, scores generated from the MOS-HIV are not suited for cost-effectiveness analyses as they do not assign utility values to health states. Our objective was to estimate and externally validate several mapping algorithms to predict Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) and EQ-5D-3L utility values from the MOS-HIV. Methods: We developed and validated mapping algorithms using data from two HIV clinical trials. Data from the first trial (n = 367) formed the estimation data set for the HUI3 (4,610 observations) and EQ-5D-3L (4,662 observations) mapping algorithms; data from the second trial (n = 168) formed the HUI3 (1,135 observations) and EQ-5D-3L (1,152 observations) external validation data set. We compared ordinary least squares (OLS) models of increasing complexity with the more flexible two-part, beta regression, and finite mixture models. We assessed model performance using mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE). Results: The OLS model that used MOS-HIV dimension scores along with squared terms gave the best HUI3 predictions (mean observed 0.84; mean predicted 0.80; MAE 0.0961); the finite mixture model gave the best EQ-5D-3L predictions (mean observed 0.90; mean predicted 0.88; MAE 0.0567). All models produced higher prediction errors at the lower end of the HUI3 and EQ-5D-3L score ranges (<0.40). Conclusions: The proposed mapping algorithms can be used to predict HUI3 and EQ-5D-3L utility values from the MOS-HIV, although greater error may pose a problem in samples where a substantial proportion of patients are in poor health. These algorithms may be useful for estimating utility values from the MOS-HIV for cost-effectiveness studies when HUI3 or EQ-5D-3L data are not available.

Safety profile of injectable hydromorphone and diacetylmorphine for long-term severe opioid use disorder

AIMS

To review the safety profile of injectable hydromorphone and diacetylmorphine and explore if adverse events (AEs) or serious adverse events (SAEs) were associated with dose and patterns of attendance.

METHODS

This was a non-inferiority randomized double-blind controlled trial (Vancouver, Canada) testing hydromorphone (n=100) and diacetylmorphine (n=102) for the treatment of severe opioid use disorder. Medications were delivered under the supervision of trained Registered Nurses up to three times daily. AEs were described using MedDRA codes.

RESULTS

Most common related AEs included immediate post-injection reaction or injection site pruritus reactions, somnolence and opioid overdoses. Adjusted analysis indicated that participants in the hydromorphone group were less likely to have any related AE or SAE compared to the diacetylmorphine group. Related somnolence and opioid overdose events were distributed throughout the six months treatment period. In the diacetylmorphine group, five of the eleven related SAE opioid overdoses (requiring naloxone) occurred in the first 30days since most recent treatment initiation. Analysis of somnolence and opioid overdose (AEs and SAEs) event rates by received dose suggested a non-linear relationship. However, in the diacetylmorphine group higher event rates per person days were recorded at lower doses.

CONCLUSIONS

When injectable hydromorphone and diacetylmorphine are individually dosed and monitored, their opioid-related side effects, including potential fatal overdoses, are safely mitigated and treated by health care providers. In the midst of an opioid overdose epidemic, injectable options are timely to reach a very important minority of people who inject street opioids and are not attracted to other treatments.

Men's and women's response to treatment and perceptions of outcomes in a randomized controlled trial of injectable opioid assisted treatment for severe opioid use disorder

Background

To test whether there are gender differences in treatment outcomes among patients receiving injectable opioids for the treatment of long-term opioid-dependence. The study additionally explores whether men and women have different perceptions of treatment effectiveness.

Methods

This study is a secondary analysis from SALOME, a double-blind, phase III, randomized controlled trial testing the non-inferiorirty of injectable hydromorphone to injectable diacetylmorphine among 202 long-term street opioid injectors in Vancouver (Canada). Given this was a secondary analysis, no a priori power calaculation was conducted. Differences in baseline characteristics and six-month treatment outcomes (illicit heroin use, opioid use, crack cocaine use, non-legal activities, physical and psychological health scores, urine positive for street heroin markers, and retention) were analysed by gender using fitted models. Responses to an open ended question on reasons for treatment effectiveness were explored with a thematic analysis.

Results

Men and women differed significantly on a number of characteristics at baseline. For example, women were significantly younger, presented to treatment with significantly higher rates of prior month sex work (31.5% vs. 0%), and used significantly more crack cocaine (14.71 vs. 8.38 days). After six-months of treatment there were no significant differences in treatment outcomes by gender, after adjusting for baseline values. For both men and women, improved health and quality of life were the most common reasons provided for treatment effectiveness, however women were more specific in the types of health improvements.

Conclusions

Despite presenting to treatment with vulnerabilities not faced to the same extent by men, at six-months women did not differ significantly from men in tested trial efficacy outcomes. While the primary outcome in the trial was the reduction of illicit opioid use, in the open-ended responses both men and women focused their comments on improvement in health and quality of life as reasons for treatment effectiveness. The supervised model of care with injectable medications provides a particularly suitable framework for providing care to opioid-dependent men and women not attracted or retained by other treatments. The absence of statistical differences reported in this secondary analysis may be due to lack of adequate statistical power to detect meaningful effects.

Trial registration

This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01447212) Registered: October 4, 2011 at the following link: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01447212.

A Practical ANOVA Approach for Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models

OBJECTIVES

To provide a practical approach for calculating uncertainty intervals and variance components associated with initial-condition and dynamic-equation parameters in computationally expensive population-based disease microsimulation models.

METHODS

In the proposed uncertainty analysis approach, we calculated the required computational time and the number of runs given a user-defined error bound on the variance of the grand mean. The equations for optimal sample sizes were derived by minimizing the variance of the grand mean using initial estimates for variance components. Finally, analysis of variance estimators were used to calculate unbiased variance estimates.

RESULTS

To illustrate the proposed approach, we performed uncertainty analysis to estimate the uncertainty associated with total direct cost of osteoarthritis in Canada from 2010 to 2031 according to a previously published population health microsimulation model of osteoarthritis. We first calculated crude estimates for initial-population sampling and dynamic-equation parameters uncertainty by performing a small number of runs. We then calculated the optimal sample sizes and finally derived 95% uncertainty intervals of the total cost and unbiased estimates for variance components. According to our results, the contribution of dynamic-equation parameter uncertainty to the overall variance was higher than that of initial parameter sampling uncertainty throughout the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed analysis of variance approach provides the uncertainty intervals for the mean outcome in addition to unbiased estimates for each source of uncertainty. The contributions of each source of uncertainty can then be compared with each other for validation purposes so as to improve the model accuracy.

The impact of price-cap regulations on market entry by generic pharmaceutical firms

BACKGROUND

In 1998, the province of Ontario, Canada implemented price-cap '70/90' regulations: the first generic must be priced at ≤70% of the associated brand-name price and subsequent generics must be priced at ≤90% of the first generics' price. The price-cap was further lowered to 50% in 2006 and 25% in 2010 for all generic drugs regardless of the first or subsequent generic entrants. This study assessed the impact of such price-cap regulations on market entry by generic firms using the formulary database from 9 provinces (January 2004-March 2013).

METHODS

A logistic regression was estimated to compare the probability of entry during the three policy periods in Ontario ('70/90', '25', versus '50'). Since different price-caps were subsequently introduced in other provinces, Alberta, British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, difference-in-differences was used to compare market entry.

RESULTS

In Ontario, compared with the period '50', generic firms were 76% and 63% less likely to enter markets in the periods '25' and '70/90', respectively. The difference-in-differences showed that the entry probability decreased the most in Ontario during the '25' period from the '50' period.

CONCLUSION

Lowering the price-cap level to 25% leads to a significantly lower probability of market entry by generic firms.

Impact of etanercept tapering on work productivity in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: results from the PRIZE study

Objective

To assess changes in work productivity in patients who have achieved response using etanercept (ETN) 50 mg+methotrexate (MTX) (phase I) are randomised to ETN 25 mg+MTX versus MTX versus placebo (phase II) and then withdrawn from treatment (phase III).

Methods

Patients included in the analysis were in employment entering phase II of the PRIZE trial and had one or more follow-ups. Phase II was a 39-week, randomised and double-blind comparison of the 3 dose-reduction treatments. Phase III was a 26-week observational study where treatment was withdrawn. The Valuation of Lost Productivity was completed approximately every 13 weeks to estimate productivity impacts from a societal perspective.

Results

A total of 120 participants were included in our analyses. During phase II, ETN25+MTX or MTX improved paid work productivity by over 100 hours compared with placebo, amounting to a gain of €1752 or €1503, respectively. ETN25+MTX compared with placebo gains €1862 in total paid/unpaid productivity. At week 52, the 3-month paid work productivity loss was 21.8, 12.8 and 14.0 hours, respectively. The productivity loss increased at week 64 from week 52, dropped at week 76 for all treatment groups and then continued rising after week 76 for the placebo group (71.9 hours at week 91) but not for the other 2 groups (21.9 hours for ETX25+MTX and 27.6 hours for MTX).

Conclusions

The work productivity gain in phase I as a result of ETN50+MTX was marginally lost in the dose-reduction treatment groups, ETN25+MTX and MTX, but substantially lost in the placebo group during phase II.

Trial registration number

NCT00913458; Results.

Hydromorphone Compared With Diacetylmorphine for Long-term Opioid Dependence: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Diacetylmorphine hydrochloride (the active ingredient in heroin), delivered under supervision, is effective for the treatment of severe opioid use disorder. However, owing to political and regulatory barriers, it is not available in many settings around the world, which limits the options for many long-term street opioid injectors not attracted into or retained in available treatments.

OBJECTIVE

To test if injectable hydromorphone hydrochloride is noninferior to injectable diacetylmorphine in reducing illicit heroin use for chronic injection opioid users after 6 months of intervention.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Study to Assess Longer-term Opioid Medication Effectiveness (SALOME) was a phase 3, double-blind, noninferiority trial. The study randomized 202 long-term street opioid injectors in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Eligible participants were recruited between December 19, 2011, and December 18, 2013. Both intent-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) analyses were conducted.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomly assigned to receive injectable diacetylmorphine or hydromorphone (up to 3 times daily) for 6 months under supervision.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary and coprimary efficacy outcomes were self-reported days of street heroin use (primary), days of any street-acquired opioids in the prior 30 days (noninferiority margin, 4 days), and the proportion of urinalyses positive for street heroin markers (margin, 10% of the observed rate in the diacetylmorphine group). The mean differences between diacetylmorphine and hydromorphone for the ITT and PP analyses were reported.

RESULTS

The study included 202 participants; 100 randomized to receive hydromorphone and 102 to diacetylmorphine. Their mean (SD) age was 44.33 (9.63) years, and 30.7% (62 of 202) were women. Noninferiority of hydromorphone was confirmed in the PP analysis (-1.44; 90% CI, -3.22 to 0.27) for street heroin use, although the margin of 4 days was not excluded in the ITT analysis (-2.34; 90% CI, -4.14 to -0.52). Noninferiority was confirmed for any street opioids in the ITT analysis (-0.85; 90% CI, -2.97 to 1.25) and the PP analysis (-0.15; 90% CI, -2.09 to 1.76), as well as for the urinalyses (0.09; 90% CI, -0.02 to 0.19 for the ITT analysis and 0.13; 90% CI, 0.02-0.24 for the PP analysis). There were 29 SAEs considered to have some relationship with the injection medication, 5 in the hydromorphone group and 24 in the diacetylmorphine group (rate ratio, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.06-0.69). Seizures and overdoses accounted for 25 of the 29 related SAEs.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study provides evidence to suggest noninferiority of injectable hydromorphone relative to diacetylmorphine for long-term opioid dependence. In jurisdictions where diacetylmorphine is currently not available or for patients in whom it is contraindicated or unsuccessful, hydromorphone could be offered as an alternative.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01447212.

Multiattribute health utility scoring for the computerized adaptive measure CAT-5D-QOL was developed and validated

OBJECTIVES

The CAT-5D-QOL is a previously reported item response theory (IRT)-based computerized adaptive tool to measure five domains (attributes) of health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a multiattribute health utility (MAHU) scoring method for this instrument.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

The MAHU scoring system was developed in two stages. In phase I, we obtained standard gamble (SG) utilities for 75 hypothetical health states in which only one domain varied (15 states per domain). In phase II, we obtained SG utilities for 256 multiattribute states. We fit a multiplicative regression model to predict SG utilities from the five IRT domain scores. The prediction model was constrained using data from phase I. We validated MAHU scores by comparing them with the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) and directly measured utilities and by assessing between-group discrimination.

RESULTS

MAHU scores have a theoretical range from -0.842 to 1. In the validation study, the scores were, on average, higher than HUI3 utilities and lower than directly measured SG utilities. MAHU scores correlated strongly with the HUI3 (Spearman ρ = 0.78) and discriminated well between groups expected to differ in health status.

CONCLUSION

Results reported here provide initial evidence supporting the validity of the MAHU scoring system for the CAT-5D-QOL.

Estimating the monetary value of the annual productivity gained in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis receiving etanercept plus methotrexate: interim results from the PRIZE study

Objective

To measure and value the impact of combined etanercept (ETN) and methotrexate (MTX) therapy on work productivity in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) over 52 weeks.

Methods

MTX- and biological-naïve patients with RA (symptom onset ≤12 months; Disease Activity Score based on a 28-joint count (DAS28) >3.2) received open-label ETN50/MTX for 52 weeks. The Valuation of Lost Productivity (VOLP) questionnaire, measuring paid and unpaid work productivity impacts, was completed approximately every 13 weeks. Bootstrapping methods were used to test changes in VOLP outcomes over time. One-year productivity impacts were compared between responders (DAS28 ≤3.2) at week 13 and non-responders using zero-inflated models for time loss and two-part models for total costs of lost productivity.

Results

196 patients were employed at baseline and had ≥1 follow-up with VOLP. Compared with baseline, at week 52, patients gained 33.4 h per 3 months in paid work and 4.2 h per week in unpaid work. Total monetary productivity gains were €1322 per 3 months. Over the 1-year period, responders gained paid (231 h) and unpaid work loss (122 h) compared with non-responders, which amounted to a gain of €3670 for responders.

Conclusions

This is the first clinical trial to measure and value the impact of biological treatment on all the labour input components that affect overall productivity. Combination therapy with ETN50/MTX was associated with a significant productivity gain for patients with early RA who were still observed at week 52. Over the 1-year treatment period, responders at week 13 suffered significantly less productivity loss than non-responders suggesting this gain was related to treatment response.

Trial registration number

ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00913458

Systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses of treatments for psoriasis

BACKGROUND

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease of the skin that has a major effect on an individual's physical and mental function. The disease is associated with increased healthcare resource use and costs, therefore cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) can be used to assist decision makers with determining which treatments are optimal within a constrained healthcare system budget.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to systematically review the current literature on the CEA of existing treatment options for psoriasis, assess the quality of these studies, and summarize the evidence on the drivers of cost effectiveness.

METHODS

A literature search using Medical Subject Headings and keywords was performed in the MEDLINE, EMBASE and Health Technology Assessment databases, as well as the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database; the CEA Registry was searched using keywords only. All references within the relevant review articles were examined manually. Two researchers independently determined the final articles and a third researcher resolved any discrepancies. We evaluated study quality in terms of the study perspective, effectiveness measures, cost measures, economic model, and time horizon. Any sensitivity analyses conducted in the studies were examined to identify the drivers of cost effectiveness, which included any variables leading to changes in the study conclusions.

RESULTS

Fifty-three articles were included in our final review: 70% did not explicitly include costs related to adverse events; approximately one-quarter used quality-adjusted life-years; and 34% applied a time horizon under 1 year. In 18 of the 38 studies that conducted a sensitivity analysis, the cost-effectiveness results were impacted by uncertainty. The main key drivers of cost effectiveness were the costs related to the treatment, values and choice of efficacy, utility values, hospitalization for non-responders, time horizon, model structure, and utility mapping method.

CONCLUSIONS

High-quality cost-effectiveness studies are required to facilitate resource allocation decision making. To improve study quality, future research should provide evidence on the long-term experience with psoriasis treatments, and resolve the uncertainty associated with key drivers of cost effectiveness.

A chance to stop and breathe: participants' experiences in the North American Opiate Medication Initiative clinical trial

Background

The North American Opiate Medication Initiative (NAOMI) clinical trial compared the effectiveness of injectable diacetylmorphine (DAM) or hydromorphone (HDM) to oral methadone maintenance treatment (MMT). This study aimed to determine participants’ perceptions of treatment delivered in NAOMI.

Methods

A qualitative sub-study was conducted with 29 participants (12 female): 18 (62.1%) received injectable DAM or HDM and 11 (37.9%) received MMT. A phenomenological theoretical framework was used. Semi-structured interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. A thematic analysis was used over successive phases and was driven by the semantic meanings of the data.

Results

Participants receiving injectable medications suggested that the supervised delivery model was stringent but provided valuable stability to their lives. Females discussed the adjustment required for the clinical setting, while males focused on the challenging clinic schedule and its impact on employment abilities. Participants receiving MMT described disappointment with being randomized to this treatment; however, positive aspects, including the quick titration time and availability of auxiliary services, were also discussed.

Conclusion

Treatment with injectable DAM (or HDM) is preferred by participants and considered effective in reducing the burden of opioid dependency. Engaging patients in research regarding their perceptions of treatment provides a comprehensive assessment of treatment needs and barriers.

Clinical trial registration

NCT00175357

Differential long-term outcomes for voluntary and involuntary transition from injection to oral opioid maintenance treatment

Background

The most widely used maintenance treatment for opioid dependency is substitution with long-acting oral opioids. Treatment with injectable diacetylmorphine provides an opportunity for patients to stabilize and possibly transition to oral treatment, if clinically indicated. The aim of this study was to explore outcomes of individuals that received injectable diacetylmorphine and voluntarily transitioned to oral methadone.

Design and methods

The North American Opiate Medication Initiative was a randomized controlled trial that compared the effectiveness of injectable diacetylmorphine (or hydromorphone) to oral methadone for long-term opioid-dependency. Treatment was provided for 12-months with an additional 3 months for transition and weaning. Participants were followed until 24-months from randomization. Among the participants randomized to injectable treatments, a sub-group voluntarily chose to transition to oral methadone (n = 16) during the treatment period. Illicit heroin use and treatment retention were assessed at 24-months for those voluntarily and involuntarily transitioning (n = 95) to oral methadone.

Results

At 24-months, the group that voluntarily transitioned to oral methadone had higher odds of treatment retention (adjusted odds ratio = 5.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11, 27.81; Chi-square = 4.33, df = 1, p-value = 0.037) than the involuntary transition group. At 24-months, the adjusted mean difference in prior 30 days of illicit heroin use for the voluntary, compared to the involuntary group was -5.58 (95% CI = -11.62, 0.47; t-value = -1.83, df = 97.4, p-value = 0.070).

Conclusions

Although the results of this study were based on small groups of self-selected (i.e., non-randomized) participants, our data underlines the critical importance of voluntary and patient-centered decision making. If we had continued offering treatment with diacetylmorphine, those retained to injectable medication may have sustained the achieved improvements in the first 12 months. Diversified opioid treatment should be available so patients and physicians can flexibly choose the best treatment at the time.

Trial registration

Clinical Trial Registration: NCT00175357