Quantifying the Impact of Alternative Definitions of Sepsis-Associated Acute Kidney Injury on its Incidence and Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

To derive a pooled estimate of the incidence and outcomes of sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) in ICU patients and to explore the impact of differing definitions of SA-AKI on these estimates.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Medline Epub, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL between 1990 and 2023.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized clinical trials and prospective cohort studies of adults admitted to the ICU with either sepsis and/or SA-AKI.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were extracted in duplicate. Risk of bias was assessed using adapted standard tools. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed by using a single covariate logistic regression model. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants in ICU with sepsis who developed AKI.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A total of 189 studies met inclusion criteria. One hundred fifty-four reported an incidence of SA-AKI, including 150,978 participants. The pooled proportion of patients who developed SA-AKI across all definitions was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.37-0.42) and 0.52 (95% CI, 0.48-0.56) when only the Risk Injury Failure Loss End-Stage, Acute Kidney Injury Network, and Improving Global Outcomes definitions were used to define SA-AKI. There was significant variation in the incidence of SA-AKI depending on the definition of AKI used and whether AKI defined by urine output criteria was included; the incidence was lowest when receipt of renal replacement therapy was used to define AKI (0.26; 95% CI, 0.24-0.28), and highest when the Acute Kidney Injury Network score was used (0.57; 95% CI, 0.45-0.69; p < 0.01). Sixty-seven studies including 29,455 participants reported at least one SA-AKI outcome. At final follow-up, the proportion of patients with SA-AKI who had died was 0.48 (95% CI, 0.43-0.53), and the proportion of surviving patients who remained on dialysis was 0.10 (95% CI, 0.04-0.17).

CONCLUSIONS

SA-AKI is common in ICU patients with sepsis and carries a high risk of death and persisting kidney impairment. The incidence and outcomes of SA-AKI vary significantly depending on the definition of AKI used.

Hybrid optimization algorithm for enhanced performance and security of counter-flow shell and tube heat exchangers

A shell and tube heat exchanger (STHE) for heat recovery applications was studied to discover the intricacies of its optimization. To optimize performance, a hybrid optimization methodology was developed by combining the Neural Fitting Tool (NFTool), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Grey Relational Analysis (GRE). STHE heat exchangers were analyzed systematically using the Taguchi method to analyze the critical elements related to a particular response. To clarify the complex relationship between the heat exchanger efficiency and operational parameters, grey relational grades (GRGs) are first computed. A forecast of the grey relation coefficients was then conducted using NFTool to provide more insight into the complex dynamics. An optimized parameter with a grey coefficient was created after applying PSO analysis, resulting in a higher grey coefficient and improved performance of the heat exchanger. A major and far-reaching application of this study was based on heat recovery. A detailed comparison was conducted between the estimated values and the experimental results as a result of the hybrid optimization algorithm. In the current study, the results demonstrate that the proposed counter-flow shell and tube strategy is effective for optimizing performance.

Balanced crystalloids versus saline for critically ill patients (BEST-Living): a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The effect of balanced crystalloids compared with that of saline in critically ill patients overall and in specific subgroups is unclear. We aimed to assess whether use of balanced solutions, compared with 0·9% sodium chloride (saline), decreased in-hospital mortality in adult patients in intensive care units (ICUs).

METHODS

For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, and CENTRAL databases from inception until March 1, 2022 (updated Sept 1, 2023) for individually randomised and cluster-randomised trials comparing balanced solutions with saline for adult patients in the ICU. Eligible trials were those that allocated patients to receive balanced solutions or saline for fluid resuscitation and maintenance fluids, or for maintenance fluids only; and administered the allocated fluid throughout ICU admission or, for trials using landmark mortality as their primary outcome, until the timepoint at which mortality was assessed (if ≥28 days). Authors of eligible trials were contacted to request individual patient data. Data obtained from eligible trials were merged, checked for accuracy, and centrally analysed by use of Bayesian regression models. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Prespecified subgroups included patients with traumatic brain injury. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022299282).

FINDINGS

Our search identified 5219 records, yielding six eligible randomised controlled trials. Data obtained for 34 685 participants from the six trials, 17 407 assigned to receive balanced crystalloids and 17 278 to receive saline, were included in the analysis. The mean age of participants was 58·8 years (SD 17·5). Of 34 653 participants with available data, 14 579 (42·1%) were female and 20 074 (57·9%) were male. Among patients who provided consent to report in-hospital mortality, 2907 (16·8%) of 17 313 assigned balanced solutions and 2975 (17·3%) of 17 166 assigned saline died in hospital (odds ratio [OR] 0·962 [95% CrI 0·909 to 1·019], absolute difference -0·4 percentage points [-1·5 to 0·2]). The posterior probability that balanced solutions reduced mortality was 0·895. In patients with traumatic brain injury, 191 (19·1%) of 999 assigned balanced and 141 (14·7%) of 962 assigned saline died (OR 1·424 [1·100 to 1·818], absolute difference 3·2 percentage points [0·7 to 8·7]). The probability that balanced solutions increased mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury was 0·975. In an independent risk of bias assessment, two trials were deemed to be at low risk of bias and four at high risk of bias.

INTERPRETATION

The probability that using balanced solutions in the ICU reduces in-hospital mortality is high, although the certainty of the evidence was moderate and the absolute risk reduction was small. In patients with traumatic brain injury, using balanced solutions was associated with increased in-hospital mortality.

FUNDING

HCor (Brazil) and The George Institute for Global Health (Australia).

Fluid therapy in diabetic ketoacidosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To evaluate recent evidence (2021-2023) on fluid therapy in diabetic ketoacidosis. Key evidence gaps which require generation of new evidence are discussed.

RECENT FINDINGS

Balanced crystalloid solutions, compared to the commonly recommended and used 0.9% sodium chloride solution (saline), may result in better outcomes for patients with diabetic ketoacidosis, including faster resolution of acidosis, less hyperchloremia and shorter hospital length of stay. Upcoming results from randomized trials may provide definitive evidence on the use of balanced crystalloid solutions in diabetic ketoacidosis. Evidence remains scarce or conflicting for the use of "two-bag" compared to conventional "one-bag" fluid, and rates of fluid administration, especially for adult patients. In children, concerns about cerebral oedema from faster fluid administration rates have not been demonstrated in cohort studies nor randomized trials.

SUMMARY

Fluid therapy is a key aspect of diabetic ketoacidosis management, with important evidence gaps persisting for several aspects of management despite recent evidence.

TMPRSS2 inhibitors for the treatment of COVID-19 in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials of nafamostat and camostat mesylate

BACKGROUND

Synthetic serine protease inhibitors block the cellular enzyme transmembrane protease serine 2, thus preventing SARS-CoV-2 cell entry. There are two relevant drugs in this class, namely, nafamostat (intravenous formulation) and camostat (oral formulation).

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether transmembrane protease serine 2 inhibition with nafamostat or camostat is associated with a reduced risk of 30-day all-cause mortality in adults with COVID-19.

DATA SOURCES

Scientific databases and clinical trial registry platforms.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, INTERVENTIONS, AND PARTICIPANTS

Preprints or published randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of nafamostat or camostat vs. usual care or placebo in adults requiring treatment for COVID-19.

METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS AND RISK-OF-BIAS ASSESSMENT

The primary outcome of the meta-analysis was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included time to recovery, adverse events, and serious adverse events. Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed using the revised Cochrane RoB 2 tool for individually randomized trials. Meta-analysis was conducted in the R package meta (v7.0-0) using inverse variance and random effects. Protocol registration number was INPLASY202320120.

RESULTS

Twelve RCTs were included. Overall, the number of available patients was small (nafamostat = 387; camostat = 1061), the number of enrolled patients meeting the primary outcome was low (nafamostat = 12; camostat = 13), and heterogeneity was high. In hospitalized adults, we did not identify differences in 30-day all-cause mortality (risk ratio [95% CI]: 0.58 [0.19, 1.80], p 0.34; I2 = 0%; n = 6) and time to recovery (mean difference [95% CI]: 0.08 days [-0.74, 0.89], p 0.86; n = 2) between nafamostat vs. usual care; and for 30-day all-cause mortality (risk ratio [95% CI]: 0.99 [0.31, 3.18], p 0.99; n = 2) between camostat vs. placebo.

CONCLUSION

The RCT evidence is inconclusive to determine whether there is a mortality reduction and safety with either nafamostat or camostat for the treatment of adults with COVID-19. There were high RoB, small sample size, and high heterogeneity between RCTs.

EARLY PERSISTENT LYMPHOPENIA AND RISK OF DEATH IN CRITICALLY ILL PATIENTS WITH AND WITHOUT SEPSIS

ABSTRACT

Purpose: To examine the relationship of early persistent lymphopenia with hospital survival in critically ill patients with and without sepsis to assess whether it can be considered a treatable trait. Methods: Retrospective database analysis of patients with nonelective admission to intensive care units (ICUs) during January 2015 to December 2018. Patients were classified as having sepsis if the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III admission diagnostic code included sepsis or coded for an infection combined with a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score of ≥2. We defined early persistent lymphopenia at two thresholds (absolute lymphocyte count [ALC] <1.0 and <0.75 × 10 9 /L) based on two qualifying values recorded during the first 4 days in ICU. The main outcome measure was time to in-hospital death. Results: Of 8,507 eligible patients, 7,605 (89.4%) had two ALCs recorded during their first 4 days in ICU; of these, 1,482 (19.5%) had sepsis. Persistent lymphopenia (ALC <1.0) was present in 728 of 1,482 (49.1%) and 2,302 of 6,123 (37.6%) patients with and without sepsis, respectively. For ALC <0.75, the results were 487 of 1,482 (32.9%) and 1,125 of 6,123 (18.4%), respectively. Of 3,030 patients with persistent lymphopenia (ALC <1.0), 562 (18.5%) died compared with 439 of 4,575 (9.6%) without persistent lymphopenia. Persistent lymphopenia was an independent risk factor for in-hospital death in all patients. The hazard ratios for death at ALC <1.0 were 1.89 (95% confidence interval, 1.32-2.71; P = 0.0005) and 1.17 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.35; P = 0.0246) in patients with and without sepsis respectively. Conclusions: Early persistent lymphopenia is common in critically ill patients and associated with increased risk of death in patients with and without sepsis. Although the association is stronger in patients with sepsis, lymphopenia is a candidate to be considered a treatable trait; drugs that reverse lymphopenia should be trialed in critically ill patients.

Dexamethasone doses in patients with COVID-19 and hypoxia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The optimal dose of dexamethasone for severe/critical COVID-19 is uncertain. We compared higher versus standard doses of dexamethasone in adults with COVID-19 and hypoxia.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and trial registers until 23 June 2023 for randomised clinical trials comparing higher (>6 mg) versus standard doses (6 mg) of dexamethasone in adults with COVID-19 and hypoxia. The primary outcome was mortality at 1 month. Secondary outcomes were mortality closest to 90 days; days alive without life support; and the occurrence of serious adverse events/reactions (SAEs/SARs) closest to 1 month. We assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane RoB2 tool, risk of random errors using trial sequential analysis, and certainty of evidence using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE).

RESULTS

We included eight trials (2478 participants), of which four (1293 participants) had low risk of bias. Higher doses of dexamethasone probably resulted in little to no difference in mortality at 1 month (relative risk [RR] 0.97, 95% CI: 0.79-1.19), mortality closest to Day 90 (RR 1.01, 95% CI: 0.86-1.20), and SAEs/SARs (RR 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.02). Higher doses of dexamethasone probably increased the number of days alive without invasive mechanical ventilation and circulatory support but had no effect on days alive without renal replacement therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on low to moderate certainty evidence, higher versus standard doses of dexamethasone probably result in little to no difference in mortality, SAEs/SARs, and days alive without renal replacement therapy, but probably increase the number of days alive without invasive mechanical ventilation and circulatory support.

A Genome-Wide Association Study of Serum Metabolite Profiles in Septic Shock Patients

OBJECTIVES

We sought to assess whether genetic associations with metabolite concentrations in septic shock patients could be used to identify pathways of potential importance for understanding sepsis pathophysiology.

DESIGN

Retrospective multicenter cohort studies of septic shock patients.

SETTING

All participants who were admitted to 27 participating hospital sites in three countries (Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom) were eligible for inclusion.

PATIENTS

Adult, critically ill, mechanically ventilated patients with septic shock (n = 230) who were a subset of the Adjunctive Corticosteroid Treatment in Critically Ill Patients with Septic Shock trial (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01448109).

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A genome-wide association study was conducted for a range of serum metabolite levels for participants. Genome-wide significant associations (p ≤ 5 × 10-8) were found for the two major ketone bodies (3-hydroxybutyrate [rs2456680] and acetoacetate [rs2213037] and creatinine (rs6851961). One of these single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs2213037) was located in the alcohol dehydrogenase cluster of genes, which code for enzymes related to the metabolism of acetoacetate and, therefore, presents a plausible association for this metabolite. None of the three SNPs showed strong associations with risk of sepsis, 28- or 90-day mortality, or Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation score (a measure of sepsis severity).

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that the genetic associations with metabolites may reflect a starvation response rather than processes involved in sepsis pathophysiology. However, our results require further investigation and replication in both healthy and diseased cohorts including those of different ancestry.

Heterogeneity of treatment effect of higher dose dexamethasone by geographic region (Europe vs. India) in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia - a post hoc evaluation of the COVID STEROID 2 trial

Background

In the COVID-STEROID 2 trial there was suggestion of heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) between patients enrolled from Europe vs. India on the primary outcome. Whether there was HTE for the remaining patient-centred outcomes is unclear.

Methods

In this post hoc analysis of the COVID-STEROID 2 trial, which compared 12 mg vs. 6 mg dexamethasone in adults with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, we evaluated HTE by geographical region (Europe vs. India) for secondary outcomes with analyses adjusted for stratification variables. Results are presented as risk differences (RDs) or mean differences (MDs) with 99% confidence intervals (CIs) and P-values from interaction tests.

Findings

There were differences in mortality at day 28 (RD for Europe -8.3% (99% CI: -17.7 to 1.0) vs. India 0.1% (99% CI: -10.0 to 10.0)), mortality at day 90 (RD for Europe -7.4% (99% CI: -17.1 to 2.0) vs. India -1.4% (99% CI: -12.8 to 9.8)), mortality at day 180 (RD for Europe -6.7% (99% CI: -16.4 to 2.9) vs. India -1.0% (99% CI: -12.3 to 10.3)), and number of days alive without life support at day 90 (MD for Europe 6.1 days (99% CI: -1.3 to 13.4) vs. India 1.7 days (99% CI: -8.4 to 11.8)). For serious adverse reactions, the direction was reversed (RD for Europe -1.0% (99% CI: -7.1 to 5.2) vs. India -5.3% (99% CI: -16.2 to 5.0).

Interpretation

Our analysis suggests higher dose dexamethasone may have less beneficial effects for patients in India as compared with those in Europe; however, the evidence is weak, and this could represent a chance finding.

Funding

None for this analysis. The COVID STEROID 2 trial was funded by The Novo Nordisk Foundation and supported by Rigshospitalet's Research Council.

Selective digestive tract decontamination in critically ill adults with acute brain injuries: a post hoc analysis of a randomized clinical trial

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to determine whether selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD) reduces in-hospital mortality in mechanically ventilated critically ill adults admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute brain injuries or conditions.

METHODS

We carried out a post hoc analysis from a crossover, cluster randomized clinical trial. ICUs were randomly assigned to adopt or not to adopt a SDD strategy for two alternating 12-month periods, separated by a 3-month inter-period gap. Patients in the SDD group (n = 2791; 968 admitted to the ICU with an acute brain injury) received a 6-hourly application of an oral paste and administration of a gastric suspension containing colistin, tobramycin, and nystatin for the duration of mechanical ventilation, plus a 4-day course of an intravenous antibiotic with a suitable antimicrobial spectrum. Patients in the control group (n = 3191; 1093 admitted to the ICU with an acute brain injury) received standard care. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality within 90 days. There were four secondary clinical outcomes: death in ICU, ventilator-, ICU- and hospital-free days to day 90.

RESULTS

Of 2061 patients with acute brain injuries (mean age, 55.8 years; 36.4% women), all completed the trial. In patients with acute brain injuries, there were 313/968 (32.3%) and 415/1093 (38%) in-hospital deaths in the SDD and standard care groups (unadjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.92; p = 0.004). The use of SDD was associated with statistically significant improvements in the four clinical secondary outcomes compared to standard care. There was no significant heterogeneity of treatment effect between patients with and without acute brain injuries (interaction p = 0.22).

CONCLUSIONS

In this post hoc analysis of a randomized clinical trial in critically ill patients with acute brain injuries receiving mechanical ventilation, the use of SDD significantly reduced in-hospital mortality in patients compared to standard care without SDD. These findings require confirmation.

REVISE: Re-Evaluating the Inhibition of Stress Erosions in the ICU: a randomised trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

The Re-Evaluating the Inhibition of Stress Erosions (REVISE) Trial aims to determine the impact of the proton pump inhibitor pantoprazole compared with placebo on clinically important upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in the intensive care unit (ICU), 90-day mortality and other endpoints in critically ill adults. The objective of this report is to describe the rationale, methodology, ethics and management of REVISE.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

REVISE is an international, randomised, concealed, stratified, blinded parallel-group individual patient trial being conducted in ICUs in Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia, UK, US, Kuwait, Pakistan and Brazil. Patients≥18 years old expected to remain invasively mechanically ventilated beyond the calendar day after enrolment are being randomised to either 40 mg pantoprazole intravenously or an identical placebo daily while mechanically ventilated in the ICU. The primary efficacy outcome is clinically important upper GI bleeding within 90 days of randomisation. The primary safety outcome is 90-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes include rates of ventilator-associated pneumonia, Clostridioides difficile infection, new renal replacement therapy, ICU and hospital mortality, and patient-important GI bleeding. Tertiary outcomes are total red blood cells transfused, peak serum creatinine level in the ICU, and duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU and hospital stay. The sample size is 4800 patients; one interim analysis was conducted after 2400 patients had complete 90-day follow-up; the Data Monitoring Committee recommended continuing the trial.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All participating centres receive research ethics approval before initiation by hospital, region or country, including, but not limited to - Australia: Northern Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee and Mater Misericordiae Ltd Human Research Ethics Committee; Brazil: Comissão Nacional de Ética em Pesquisa; Canada: Hamilton Integrated Research Ethics Board; Kuwait: Ministry of Health Standing Committee for Coordination of Health and Medical Research; Pakistan: Maroof Institutional Review Board; Saudi Arabia: Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs Institutional Review Board: United Kingdom: Hampshire B Research Ethics Committee; United States: Institutional Review Board of the Nebraska Medical Centre. The results of this trial will inform clinical practice and guidelines worldwide.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03374800.

A Randomized Trial of Nafamostat for Covid-19

A Randomized Trial of Nafamostat for Covid-19Nafamostat mesylate is a potent in vitro antiviral that inhibits the host transmembrane protease serine 2 enzyme used by SARS-CoV-2 for cell entry. Morpeth et al report the results of an open-label randomized clinical trial of nafamostat for noncritically ill patients with Covid-19.

Adaptive designs in critical care trials: a simulation study

BACKGROUND

Adaptive clinical trials are growing in popularity as they are more flexible, efficient and ethical than traditional fixed designs. However, notwithstanding their increased use in assessing treatments for COVID-19, their use in critical care trials remains limited. A better understanding of the relative benefits of various adaptive designs may increase their use and interpretation.

METHODS

Using two large critical care trials (ADRENAL.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov number, NCT01448109. Updated 12-12-2017; NICE-SUGAR.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov number, NCT00220987. Updated 01-29-2009), we assessed the performance of three frequentist and two bayesian adaptive approaches. We retrospectively re-analysed the trials with one, two, four, and nine equally spaced interims. Using the original hypotheses, we conducted 10,000 simulations to derive error rates, probabilities of making an early correct and incorrect decision, expected sample size and treatment effect estimates under the null scenario (no treatment effect) and alternative scenario (a positive treatment effect). We used a logistic regression model with 90-day mortality as the outcome and the treatment arm as the covariate. The null hypothesis was tested using a two-sided significance level (α) at 0.05.

RESULTS

Across all approaches, increasing the number of interims led to a decreased expected sample size. Under the null scenario, group sequential approaches provided good control of the type-I error rate; however, the type I error rate inflation was an issue for the Bayesian approaches. The Bayesian Predictive Probability and O'Brien-Fleming approaches showed the highest probability of correctly stopping the trials (around 95%). Under the alternative scenario, the Bayesian approaches showed the highest overall probability of correctly stopping the ADRENAL trial for efficacy (around 91%), whereas the Haybittle-Peto approach achieved the greatest power for the NICE-SUGAR trial. Treatment effect estimates became increasingly underestimated as the number of interims increased.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms the right adaptive design can reach the same conclusion as a fixed design with a much-reduced sample size. The efficiency gain associated with an increased number of interims is highly relevant to late-phase critical care trials with large sample sizes and short follow-up times. Systematically exploring adaptive methods at the trial design stage will aid the choice of the most appropriate method.

Impact of 1-hour and 3-hour sepsis time bundles on antibiotic use in emergency departments in Queensland, Australia: a before-and-after cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the introduction of an emergency department (ED) sepsis screening tool and management bundle affects antibiotic prescribing and use.

DESIGN

Multicentre, cohort, before-and-after study design.

SETTING

Three tertiary hospitals in Queensland, Australia (median bed size 543, range 520-742).

PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients, presenting to the ED with symptoms and signs suggestive of sepsis who had blood cultures collected. These participants were further assessed and stratified as having septic shock, sepsis or infection alone, using Sepsis-3 definitions. The study dates were 1 July 2017-31 March 2020.

INTERVENTION

The breakthrough series collaborative 'Could this be Sepsis?' Programme, aimed at embedding a sepsis screening tool and treatment bundle with weighted-incidence syndromic combined antibiogram-derived antibiotic guidelines in EDs.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the rate of empirical prescriptions adherent to antibiotic guidelines during the ED encounter. Secondary outcomes included the empirical prescriptions considered appropriate, effective antibiotics administered within 3 hours and assessment of harm measures.

RESULTS

Of 2591 eligible patients, 721 were randomly selected: 241 in the baseline phase and 480 in the post-intervention phase. The rates of guideline adherence were 54.0% and 59.5%, respectively (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.41 (95% CI 1.00, 1.98)). As compared with baseline, there was an increase in the rates of appropriate antibiotic prescription after bundle implementation (69.9% vs 57.1%, aOR 1.92 (95% CI 1.37, 2.68)). There were no differences between the baseline and post-intervention groups with respect to time to effective antibiotics, adverse effects or ED rates of broad-spectrum antibiotic use.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

The use of an ED sepsis screening tool and management bundle was associated with an improvement in the rates of appropriate antibiotic prescription without evidence of adverse effects.

Sodium chloride or plasmalyte-148 for patients presenting to emergency departments with diabetic ketoacidosis: A nested cohort study within a multicentre, cluster, crossover, randomised, controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that fluid resuscitation in the ED with plasmalyte-148 (PL) compared with 0.9% sodium chloride (SC) would result in a lower proportion of patients with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission.

METHODS

We performed a prespecified nested cohort study at two hospitals within a cluster, crossover, open label, randomised, controlled trial comparing the effects of PL versus SC as fluid therapy for patients who presented to the ED with DKA. All patients presenting within a fixed recruitment period were included. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients admitted to ICU.

RESULTS

Eighty-four patients were enrolled (SC n = 38, PL n = 46). The SC group had a lower median pH on admission (SC: 7.09 [interquartile range (IQR) 7.01-7.21], PL: 7.17 [IQR 6.99-7.26]). The median volume of intravenous fluids administered in ED was 2150 mL (IQR 2000-3200 mL; SC) and 2200 mL (IQR 2000-3450; PL); respectively. A higher proportion of patients in the SC group, 19 (50%), was admitted to ICU compared with PL group, 18 (39.1%); however, after adjustment for pH at presentation and diabetes type in a multivariable logistic regression model, the PL group did not have a significantly different rate of ICU admission compared with the SC group (odds ratio for ICU admission 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.13-3.97, P = 0.71).

CONCLUSION

Patients with DKA treated with PL compared with SC in the EDs had similar rates of requiring ICU admission.

Patient-Level Meta-Analysis of Low-Dose Hydrocortisone in Adults with Septic Shock

Low-Dose Hydrocortisone and Septic ShockCorticosteroids have been evaluated as a therapy for septic shock for more than 50 years. However, uncertainty persists about their effects on mortality. Pirracchio and colleagues undertake a patient-level meta-analysis to answer this important question.

Sex differences in pain expressed by patients across diverse disease states: individual patient data meta-analysis of 33,957 participants in 10 randomized controlled trials

ABSTRACT

The experience of pain is determined by many factors and has a significant impact on quality of life. This study aimed to determine sex differences in pain prevalence and intensity reported by participants with diverse disease states in several large international clinical trials. Individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted using EuroQol-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire pain data from randomised controlled trials published between January 2000 and January 2020 and undertaken by investigators at the George Institute for Global Health. Proportional odds logistic regression models, comparing pain scores between females and males and fitted with adjustments for age and randomized treatment, were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. In 10 trials involving 33,957 participants (38% females) with EQ-5D pain score data, the mean age ranged between 50 and 74. Pain was reported more frequently by females than males (47% vs 37%; P < 0.001). Females also reported greater levels of pain than males (adjusted odds ratio 1.41, 95% CI 1.24-1.61; P < 0.001). In stratified analyses, there were differences in pain by disease group (P for heterogeneity <0.001), but not by age group or region of recruitment. Females were more likely to report pain, and at a higher level, compared with males across diverse diseases, all ages, and geographical regions. This study reinforces the importance of reporting sex-disaggregated analysis to identify similarities and differences between females and males that reflect variable biology and may affect disease profiles and have implications for management.

Heterogeneous treatment effects of dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia-Post hoc exploratory analyses of the COVID STEROID 2 trial

BACKGROUND

Corticosteroids improve outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19. In the COVID STEROID 2 randomised clinical trial, we found high probabilities of benefit with dexamethasone 12 versus 6 mg daily. While no statistically significant heterogeneity in treatment effects (HTE) was found in the conventional, dichotomous subgroup analyses, these analyses have limitations, and HTE could still exist.

METHODS

We assessed whether HTE was present for days alive without life support and mortality at Day 90 in the trial according to baseline age, weight, number of comorbidities, category of respiratory failure (type of respiratory support system and oxygen requirements) and predicted risk of mortality using an internal prediction model. We used flexible models for continuous variables and logistic regressions for categorical variables without dichotomisation of the baseline variables of interest. HTE was assessed both visually and with p and S values from likelihood ratio tests.

RESULTS

There was no strong evidence for substantial HTE on either outcome according to any of the baseline variables assessed with all p values >.37 (and all S values <1.43) in the planned analyses and no convincingly strong visual indications of HTE.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no strong evidence for HTE with 12 versus 6 mg dexamethasone daily on days alive without life support or mortality at Day 90 in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia, although these results cannot rule out HTE either.

Anticoagulation Strategies in Non-Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19

Anticoagulation in Non-Critically Ill Covid-19 PatientsMcQuilten et al. conducted a randomized clinical trial comparing low-dose, intermediate-dose, low-dose plus aspirin, and therapeutic-dose anticoagulation in patients with Covid-19 of diverse ethnicities in high-, low-, and middle-income countries.

Future Predictions of Precipitation and Discharge Using CMIP5 Models in the Western Ghats Region, India

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the hydrological cycle globally and have a significant impact on water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report states that observed and projected increases in both temperature and precipitation variability are the main reasons for projected climate change impacts on natural water resources. The examination of meteorological variables of the region, especially when agriculture is rainfall dependent, is very essential to formulate feasible adaptation strategies. As a result, using CORDEX-SA (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-South Asia) rainfall data (2021 to 2050), trend analysis was used to examine variations in rainfall data in the Kokkarne catchment of the Seetha river basin. Regression analysis was used to identify the season-wise rainfall trend. Annual, Summer, Monsoon, and Winter rainfall have depicted increasing trends with a rate of 2.46, 1.21, 2.77, and 0.009 mm per year respectively. The post-monsoon rainfall has projected a declining trend with a rate of -1.54 mm per year. Hence it is recommended that the designed strategies in the agricultural sector have to take the increasing, decreasing, and erratic nature of the trend of rainfall into consideration. Further considering the use of a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) is reducing the SD and CV of rainfall data by 862 mm and 48.5% respectively. 87% of annual rainfall is contributed by monsoon season only with a Standard deviation of 424.4 mm and CV of 12%.

ASCOT ADAPT study of COVID-19 therapeutics in hospitalised patients: an international multicentre adaptive platform trial

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with a significant risk of hospitalisation, death, and prolonged impact on quality of life. Evaluation of new treatment options and optimising therapeutic management of people hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 infection remains essential, but rapid changes in pandemic conditions and potential therapies have limited the utility of traditional approaches to randomised controlled trials.

METHODS

ASCOT ADAPT is an international, investigator-initiated, adaptive platform, randomised controlled trial of therapeutics for non-critically ill patients hospitalised with COVID-19. The study design is open label and pragmatic. Potential participants are hospitalised adults with PCR confirmed, symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, within 14 days of symptom onset. Domains include antiviral, antibody and anticoagulant interventions, with a composite primary outcome of 28-day mortality or progression to intensive-care level respiratory or haemodynamic support. Initial interventions include intravenous nafamostat and variable dose anticoagulation. A range of secondary endpoints, and substudies for specific domains and interventions are outlined.

DISCUSSION

This paper presents the trial protocol and management structure, including international governance, remote site monitoring and biobanking activities and provides commentary on ethical and pragmatic considerations in establishing the ASCOT ADAPT trial under pandemic conditions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12620000445976) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04483960).

An Assessment of Future Predictions of Rainfall Using GCM Projections in the Western Ghats Region of India

The present study has been taken up to quantify the possible impacts of climate change on the climate variables using the outputs of the global climate model dataset over the Sagar and Kokkarne catchments. The baseline period considered is 30 years (1991-2020), and the daily rainfall dataset is used. The rainfall dataset for the future period is derived from five selected GCMs (Global Circulation Model) datasets under the (Representative Concentration Pathway) RCP 4.5 scenario for the period (2021-2050). The mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of yearly rainfall are determined to check the rainfall variability using statistical analysis. The ensemble rainfall mean values of the five GCMs suggest that the uncertainty in the projected results is reduced by considering the cluster of GCMs. The minimum rainfall for the future period has shown an increasing trend (42.3 % 10.5 %) whereas maximum rainfall has shown decreasing trend (52.44 %, 15.28 %) for Sagar and Kokkarne catchments respectively. The future predicted results show that the percentage change in Ensemble mean annual rainfall for the period 2021-2050 with reference to rainfall data of the baseline period (1991-2020) is depicting an increasing trend of 2.52 % and 4.12 % for Sagar and Kokkarne catchments respectively. Monsoon arrival is earlier in the Kokkarne catchment as compared to the Sagar catchment. The highest positive percentage change in mean annual rainfall of 24.89 %, 10.25 % is projected by MPI-ESM-LR GCM, and the Highest negative percentage change in mean annual rainfall of -28.49 %, -9.19 % is projected by ACCESS1.0 GCM for Sagar and Kokkarne catchments respectively. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planning engineers, research scientists, and farmers to assess the water availability in the region and create storage if essential.

Recruitment characteristics of randomised trials in critical care: A systematic review

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To summarise the temporal trends of recruitment and methodological characteristics of critical care randomised controlled trials with the primary outcome of mortality.

METHODS

PubMed was searched for articles meeting inclusion and exclusion criteria. Randomised controlled trials, with primary outcome of mortality, of adult and paediatric critical care patients treated in an intensive care unit, were included. Neonatal intensive care unit trials, non-English publications and conference proceedings or abstracts without full-length publications were excluded. Duplicate literature search, article selection and quality assessment were performed by two reviewers with disputes resolved through discussion. Data were extracted into a custom-designed Research Electronic Data Capture database.

RESULTS

The search identified 67,199 records of which 230 were included. The annual number of critical care randomised controlled trials published increased gradually over a 30-year period from 0 in 1990 to 19 in 2014 with stabilisation at 8-11 between 2015 and 2020. Twenty-seven percent of randomised controlled trials were low risk in all categories using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Methodological characteristics such as registration on clinical trials registries and data safety monitoring committee presence significantly (p < 0.001) increased over time. The median recruitment was 376 patients (interquartile range 125-895) with significant increase (p = 0.002) from 62 (interquartile range: 33-486) in 1991 to 725 (interquartile range: 537-2600) in 2020. This was accompanied by an increase in recruitment times. Thus overall, recruitment rates did not increase. Early cessation occurred in 23% (54/230) of randomised controlled trials with no temporal trend.

CONCLUSION

The number, size and some methodological qualities of critical randomised controlled trials with primary outcome of mortality have increased over time, but rates of recruitment and early cessation have been unchanged.

Association Between Selective Decontamination of the Digestive Tract and In-Hospital Mortality in Intensive Care Unit Patients Receiving Mechanical Ventilation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

The effectiveness of selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD) in critically ill adults receiving mechanical ventilation is uncertain.

Objective

To determine whether SDD is associated with reduced risk of death in adults receiving mechanical ventilation in intensive care units (ICUs) compared with standard care.

Data Sources

The primary search was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases until September 2022.

Study Selection

Randomized clinical trials including adults receiving mechanical ventilation in the ICU comparing SDD vs standard care or placebo.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Data extraction and risk of bias assessments were performed in duplicate. The primary analysis was conducted using a bayesian framework.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was hospital mortality. Subgroups included SDD with an intravenous agent compared with SDD without an intravenous agent. There were 8 secondary outcomes including the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia, ICU-acquired bacteremia, and the incidence of positive cultures of antimicrobial-resistant organisms.

Results

There were 32 randomized clinical trials including 24 389 participants in the analysis. The median age of participants in the included studies was 54 years (IQR, 44-60), and the median proportion of female trial participants was 33% (IQR, 25%-38%). Data from 30 trials including 24 034 participants contributed to the primary outcome. The pooled estimated risk ratio (RR) for mortality for SDD compared with standard care was 0.91 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.82-0.99; I2 = 33.9%; moderate certainty) with a 99.3% posterior probability that SDD reduced hospital mortality. The beneficial association of SDD was evident in trials with an intravenous agent (RR, 0.84 [95% CrI, 0.74-0.94]), but not in trials without an intravenous agent (RR, 1.01 [95% CrI, 0.91-1.11]) (P value for the interaction between subgroups = .02). SDD was associated with reduced risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (RR, 0.44 [95% CrI, 0.36-0.54]) and ICU-acquired bacteremia (RR, 0.68 [95% CrI, 0.57-0.81]). Available data regarding the incidence of positive cultures of antimicrobial-resistant organisms were not amenable to pooling and were of very low certainty.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among adults in the ICU treated with mechanical ventilation, the use of SDD compared with standard care or placebo was associated with lower hospital mortality. Evidence regarding the effect of SDD on antimicrobial resistance was of very low certainty.

Nafamostat Mesylate for Treatment of COVID-19 in Hospitalised Patients: A Structured, Narrative Review

The search for clinically effective antivirals against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is ongoing. Repurposing of drugs licensed for non–coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) indications has been extensively investigated in laboratory models and in clinical studies with mixed results. Nafamostat mesylate (nafamostat) is a drug licensed in Japan and Korea for indications including acute pancreatitis and disseminated intravascular coagulation. It is available only for continuous intravenous infusion. In vitro human lung cell line studies with nafamostat demonstrate high antiviral potency against SARS-CoV-2 (half maximal inhibitory concentration [IC50] of 0.0022 µM [compared to remdesivir 1.3 µM]), ostensibly via inhibition of the cellular enzyme transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2) preventing viral entry into human cells. In addition, the established antithrombotic activity is hypothesised to be advantageous given thrombosis-associated sequelae of COVID-19. Clinical reports to date are limited, but indicate a potential benefit of nafamostat in patients with moderate to severe COVID-19. In this review, we will explore the pre-clinical, pharmacokinetic and clinical outcome data presently available for nafamostat as a treatment for COVID-19. The recruitment to ongoing clinical trials is a priority to provide more robust data on the safety and efficacy of nafamostat as a treatment for COVID-19.

Hydroxychloroquine plus personal protective equipment versus personal protective equipment alone for the prevention of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections among healthcare workers: a multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial from India

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether hydroxychloroquine when used with personal protective equipment reduces the proportion of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 among healthcare workers in comparison to the use of personal protective equipment alone.

DESIGN

Multicentre, parallel-group, open-label randomised trial. Enrolment started on 29 June 2020 and stopped on 4 February 2021. Participants randomised in HydrOxychloroquine Prophylaxis Evaluation were followed for 6 months.

SETTING

9 hospitals across India.

PARTICIPANTS

Healthcare workers in an environment with exposure to COVID-19 were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to hydroxychloroquine plus use of personal protective equipment or personal protective equipment alone. 886 participants were screened and 416 randomised (213 hydroxychloroquine arm and 203 personal protective equipment).

INTERVENTION

Participants in intervention arm received 800 mg of hydroxychloroquine on day of randomisation and then 400 mg once a week for 12 weeks in addition to the use of personal protective equipment. In the control arm, participants continued to use personal protective equipment alone.

MAIN OUTCOME

Proportion of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the 6 months after randomisation.

RESULTS

Participants were young (mean age 32.1 years, SD 9.1 years) with low-comorbid burden. 47.4% were female. In the 6 months after randomisation (primary analysis population=413), 11 participants assigned to the hydroxychloroquine group and 12 participants assigned to the standard practice group met the primary endpoint (5.2% vs 5.9%; OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.35 to 2.07, p=0.72). There was no heterogeneity of treatment effect in any prespecified subgroup. There were no significant differences in the secondary outcomes. The adverse event rates were 9.9% and 6.9% in the hydroxychloroquine and standard practice arms, respectively. There were no serious adverse events in either group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Hydroxychloroquine along with personal protective equipment was not superior to personal protective equipment alone on the proportion of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Definitive conclusions are precluded as the trial stopped early for futility, and hence was underpowered.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CTRI/2020/05/025067.

A Comparison of the Commonly Used Surrogate Markers for Citrate Accumulation and Toxicity during Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy with Regional Citrate Anticoagulation

INTRODUCTION

Continuous renal replacement therapy using regional citrate anticoagulation is commonly used as a modality of organ support in the critically ill population. Currently, citrate accumulation or toxicity is assessed using surrogate markers, notably the uncorrected total-to-ionized calcium ration. The accuracy and utility of this method have been questioned.

OBJECTIVES/AIMS

The aim of this study was to compare the surrogate markers used for assessing citrate accumulation or toxicity using the measurement of plasma citrate as the gold standard.

METHODS

Blood was sampled from 20 patients before, during, and after episodes of filtration with citrate concentration measured using spectrophotometry. Demographic and other clinical and biochemical data were also collected. According to protocol, a 15 mmol/L solution of trisodium citrate was used as the prefilter anticoagulant. Results were analyzed using STATA (v16.0) and presented as mean (SD), median (IQR), or simple proportion. Univariate linear regression using citrate concentration as the dependent variable was performed with all surrogate markers.

RESULTS

Twenty patients (17 males) were enrolled in the study with a mean (SD) age of 62.7 (9.9) years. The uncorrected calcium ratio had the best fit to the citrate data with an R2 value of 0.39. The albumin-corrected calcium ratio, pH, anion gap (AG), albumin-corrected AG, standard base excess, and strong ion gap all had R2 values less than 0.05.

CONCLUSION(S)

In the absence of direct measurement of citrate concentration, uncorrected total-to-ionized calcium ratio is superior to other surrogate markers, though not ideal, in assessing citrate accumulation or toxicity.

Long-term outcomes of dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia

PURPOSE

We assessed long-term outcomes of dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg given daily for up to 10 days in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe hypoxaemia.

METHODS

We assessed 180-day mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using EuroQoL (EQ)-5D-5L index values and EQ visual analogue scale (VAS) in the international, stratified, blinded COVID STEROID 2 trial, which randomised 1000 adults with confirmed COVID-19 receiving at least 10 L/min of oxygen or mechanical ventilation in 26 hospitals in Europe and India. In the HRQoL analyses, higher values indicated better outcomes, and deceased patients were given a score of zero.

RESULTS

We obtained vital status at 180 days for 963 of 982 patients (98.1%) in the intention-to-treat population, EQ-5D-5L index value data for 922 (93.9%) and EQ VAS data for 924 (94.1%). At 180 days, 164 of 486 patients (33.7%) had died in the 12 mg group versus 184 of 477 (38.6%) in the 6 mg group [adjusted risk difference - 4.3%; 99% confidence interval (CI) - 11.7-3.0; relative risk 0.89; 0.72-1.09; P = 0.13]. The adjusted mean differences between the 12 mg and the 6 mg groups in EQ-5D-5L index values were 0.06 (99% CI - 0.01 to 0.12; P = 0.10) and in EQ VAS scores 4 (- 3 to 10; P = 0.22).

CONCLUSION

Among patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia, dexamethasone 12 mg compared with 6 mg did not result in statistically significant improvements in mortality or HRQoL at 180 days, but the results were most compatible with benefit from the higher dose.

Outcomes following severe septic shock in a cohort of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people: a nested cohort study from the ADRENAL trial

Objective: To describe the pattern of acute illness and 6-month mortality and health-related quality-of-life outcomes for a cohort of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients presenting with septic shock. Design: Nested cohort study of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander participants recruited to a large randomised controlled trial of corticosteroid treatment in patients with septic shock. Setting: Royal Darwin Hospital, Northern Territory. Participants: All Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients recruited to the Adjunctive Corticosteroid Treatment in Critically Ill Patients with Septic Shock (ADRENAL) trial at Royal Darwin Hospital were compared with a non-Indigenous cohort drawn from the same site, and a cohort matched for age, sex and severity of disease. Main outcome measures: Mortality at 90 days and 6 months, time to shock resolution, mechanical ventilation requirement, renal replacement therapy requirement, and five-domain, five-level EuroQol questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) score at 6 months. Results: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients had significantly reduced risk of death at 90 days when compared with non-Indigenous patients recruited to ADRENAL at Royal Darwin Hospital (12/60 v 23/62; adjusted odds ratio, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.17 to 0.94]) which was robust to additional adjustment for baseline covariates (odds ratio, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.14 to 0.90]). When compared with the matched population drawn from the broader ADRENAL cohort, there was no significant difference in 90-day mortality (12/60 v 16/61; adjusted odds ratio, 1.43 [95% CI, 0.60 to 3.39]; P = 0.42). Only nine Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients provided 6-month health-related quality-of-life data. Conclusions: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients had reduced risk of death at 90 days when compared with non- Indigenous patients recruited to the ADRENAL trial at Royal Darwin Hospital, which was robust to adjustment for covariates, but similar outcomes when compared with a cohort matched for age, sex and severity of disease.

Infection control in the intensive care unit: expert consensus statements for SARS-CoV-2 using a Delphi method

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, health-care workers and uninfected patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are at risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 as a result of transmission from infected patients and health-care workers. In the absence of high-quality evidence on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, clinical practice of infection control and prevention in ICUs varies widely. Using a Delphi process, international experts in intensive care, infectious diseases, and infection control developed consensus statements on infection control for SARS-CoV-2 in an ICU. Consensus was achieved for 31 (94%) of 33 statements, from which 25 clinical practice statements were issued. These statements include guidance on ICU design and engineering, health-care worker safety, visiting policy, personal protective equipment, patients and procedures, disinfection, and sterilisation. Consensus was not reached on optimal return to work criteria for health-care workers who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 or the acceptable disinfection strategy for heat-sensitive instruments used for airway management of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Well designed studies are needed to assess the effects of these practice statements and address the remaining uncertainties.

Balanced Crystalloids versus Saline in Critically Ill Adults - A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

Balanced Crystalloids and Saline in Critical IllnessThis article presents a frequentist (showing no significant difference) and Bayesian (in which the posterior probability that balanced crystalloids reduced mortality was 89.5%) systematic review of randomized clinical trials comparing balanced crystalloids with saline in critically ill adults with the primary outcome of 90-day mortality.

Geographical Representation of Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Randomized Clinical Trials for COVID-19

This systematic review examines geographical representation of low- and middle-income countries in randomized clinical trials for COVID-19 compared with high-income countries.

Dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg for patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia: a pre-planned, secondary Bayesian analysis of the COVID STEROID 2 trial

PURPOSE

We compared dexamethasone 12 versus 6 mg daily for up to 10 days in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe hypoxaemia in the international, randomised, blinded COVID STEROID 2 trial. In the primary, conventional analyses, the predefined statistical significance thresholds were not reached. We conducted a pre-planned Bayesian analysis to facilitate probabilistic interpretation.

METHODS

We analysed outcome data within 90 days in the intention-to-treat population (data available in 967 to 982 patients) using Bayesian models with various sensitivity analyses. Results are presented as median posterior probabilities with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) and probabilities of different effect sizes with 12 mg dexamethasone.

RESULTS

The adjusted mean difference on days alive without life support at day 28 (primary outcome) was 1.3 days (95% CrI -0.3 to 2.9; 94.2% probability of benefit). Adjusted relative risks and probabilities of benefit on serious adverse reactions was 0.85 (0.63 to 1.16; 84.1%) and on mortality 0.87 (0.73 to 1.03; 94.8%) at day 28 and 0.88 (0.75 to 1.02; 95.1%) at day 90. Probabilities of benefit on days alive without life support and days alive out of hospital at day 90 were 85 and 95.7%, respectively. Results were largely consistent across sensitivity analyses, with relatively low probabilities of clinically important harm with 12 mg on all outcomes in all analyses.

CONCLUSION

We found high probabilities of benefit and low probabilities of clinically important harm with dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg daily in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia on all outcomes up to 90 days.

Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19: a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/GEHFX ).

METHODS

In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence.

RESULTS

A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care.

Infection control in the intensive care unit: expert consensus statements for SARS-CoV-2 using a Delphi method

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, health-care workers and uninfected patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are at risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 as a result of transmission from infected patients and health-care workers. In the absence of high-quality evidence on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, clinical practice of infection control and prevention in ICUs varies widely. Using a Delphi process, international experts in intensive care, infectious diseases, and infection control developed consensus statements on infection control for SARS-CoV-2 in an ICU. Consensus was achieved for 31 (94%) of 33 statements, from which 25 clinical practice statements were issued. These statements include guidance on ICU design and engineering, health-care worker safety, visiting policy, personal protective equipment, patients and procedures, disinfection, and sterilisation. Consensus was not reached on optimal return to work criteria for health-care workers who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 or the acceptable disinfection strategy for heat-sensitive instruments used for airway management of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Well designed studies are needed to assess the effects of these practice statements and address the remaining uncertainties.

Effect of 12 mg vs 6 mg of Dexamethasone on the Number of Days Alive Without Life Support in Adults With COVID-19 and Severe Hypoxemia: The COVID STEROID 2 Randomized Trial

IMPORTANCE

A daily dose with 6 mg of dexamethasone is recommended for up to 10 days in patients with severe and critical COVID-19, but a higher dose may benefit those with more severe disease.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effects of 12 mg/d vs 6 mg/d of dexamethasone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A multicenter, randomized clinical trial was conducted between August 2020 and May 2021 at 26 hospitals in Europe and India and included 1000 adults with confirmed COVID-19 requiring at least 10 L/min of oxygen or mechanical ventilation. End of 90-day follow-up was on August 19, 2021.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomized 1:1 to 12 mg/d of intravenous dexamethasone (n = 503) or 6 mg/d of intravenous dexamethasone (n = 497) for up to 10 days.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was the number of days alive without life support (invasive mechanical ventilation, circulatory support, or kidney replacement therapy) at 28 days and was adjusted for stratification variables. Of the 8 prespecified secondary outcomes, 5 are included in this analysis (the number of days alive without life support at 90 days, the number of days alive out of the hospital at 90 days, mortality at 28 days and at 90 days, and ≥1 serious adverse reactions at 28 days).

RESULTS

Of the 1000 randomized patients, 982 were included (median age, 65 [IQR, 55-73] years; 305 [31%] women) and primary outcome data were available for 971 (491 in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group and 480 in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group). The median number of days alive without life support was 22.0 days (IQR, 6.0-28.0 days) in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group and 20.5 days (IQR, 4.0-28.0 days) in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted mean difference, 1.3 days [95% CI, 0-2.6 days]; P = .07). Mortality at 28 days was 27.1% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 32.3% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.86 [99% CI, 0.68-1.08]). Mortality at 90 days was 32.0% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 37.7% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.87 [99% CI, 0.70-1.07]). Serious adverse reactions, including septic shock and invasive fungal infections, occurred in 11.3% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 13.4% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.83 [99% CI, 0.54-1.29]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, 12 mg/d of dexamethasone compared with 6 mg/d of dexamethasone did not result in statistically significantly more days alive without life support at 28 days. However, the trial may have been underpowered to identify a significant difference.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04509973 and ctri.nic.in Identifier: CTRI/2020/10/028731.

Challenges in the delivery of critical care in India during the COVID-19 pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 cases in India continue to increase and are expected to peak over the next few weeks. Based on some projection models, India is expected to have more than 10 million cases by September 2020. The spectrum of disease can vary from mild upper respiratory tract symptoms to life-threatening acute respiratory distress syndrome and multi-organ failure requiring intensive care. Even if less than 5% of patients require critical care services, this will still rapidly overwhelm the healthcare system in a country, where intensive care services and resources are scarce and unevenly distributed. In this perspective article, we highlight the critical care preparedness of India for the pandemic and the associated challenges.

Low-dose hydrocortisone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxia: The COVID STEROID randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background

In the early phase of the pandemic, some guidelines recommended the use of corticosteroids for critically ill patients with COVID‐19, whereas others recommended against the use despite lack of firm evidence of either benefit or harm. In the COVID STEROID trial, we aimed to assess the effects of low‐dose hydrocortisone on patient‐centred outcomes in adults with COVID‐19 and severe hypoxia.

Methods

In this multicentre, parallel‐group, placebo‐controlled, blinded, centrally randomised, stratified clinical trial, we randomly assigned adults with confirmed COVID‐19 and severe hypoxia (use of mechanical ventilation or supplementary oxygen with a flow of at least 10 L/min) to either hydrocortisone (200 mg/d) vs a matching placebo for 7 days or until hospital discharge. The primary outcome was the number of days alive without life support at day 28 after randomisation.

Results

The trial was terminated early when 30 out of 1000 participants had been enrolled because of external evidence indicating benefit from corticosteroids in severe COVID‐19. At day 28, the median number of days alive without life support in the hydrocortisone vs placebo group were 7 vs 10 (adjusted mean difference: −1.1 days, 95% CI −9.5 to 7.3, P = .79); mortality was 6/16 vs 2/14; and the number of serious adverse reactions 1/16 vs 0/14.

Conclusions

In this trial of adults with COVID‐19 and severe hypoxia, we were unable to provide precise estimates of the benefits and harms of hydrocortisone as compared with placebo as only 3% of the planned sample size were enrolled.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04348305. European Union Drug Regulation Authorities Clinical Trials (EudraCT) Database: 2020‐001395‐15.

A Research Agenda for Precision Medicine in Sepsis and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: An Official American Thoracic Society Research Statement

Background: Precision medicine focuses on the identification of therapeutic strategies that are effective for a group of patients based on similar unifying characteristics. The recent success of precision medicine in non-critical care settings has resulted from the confluence of large clinical and biospecimen repositories, innovative bioinformatics, and novel trial designs. Similar advances for precision medicine in sepsis and in the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are possible but will require further investigation and significant investment in infrastructure. Methods: This project was funded by the American Thoracic Society Board of Directors. A multidisciplinary and diverse working group reviewed the available literature, established a conceptual framework, and iteratively developed recommendations for the Precision Medicine Research Agenda for Sepsis and ARDS. Results: The following six priority recommendations were developed by the working group: 1) the creation of large richly phenotyped and harmonized knowledge networks of clinical, imaging, and multianalyte molecular data for sepsis and ARDS; 2) the implementation of novel trial designs, including adaptive designs, and embedding trial procedures in the electronic health record; 3) continued innovation in the data science and engineering methods required to identify heterogeneity of treatment effect; 4) further development of the tools necessary for the real-time application of precision medicine approaches; 5) work to ensure that precision medicine strategies are applicable and available to a broad range of patients varying across differing racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and demographic groups; and 6) the securement and maintenance of adequate and sustainable funding for precision medicine efforts. Conclusions: Precision medicine approaches that incorporate variability in genomic, biologic, and environmental factors may provide a path forward for better individualizing the delivery of therapies and improving care for patients with sepsis and ARDS.

Sodium chloride or Plasmalyte-148 evaluation in severe diabetic ketoacidosis (SCOPE-DKA): a cluster, crossover, randomized, controlled trial

PURPOSE

To determine whether treatment with Plasmalyte-148 (PL) compared to sodium chloride 0.9% (SC) results in faster resolution of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and whether the acetate in PL potentiates ketosis.

METHODS

We conducted a cluster, crossover, open-label, randomized, controlled Phase 2 trial at seven hospitals in adults admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) with severe DKA with hospital randomised to PL or SC as fluid therapy. The primary outcome, DKA resolution, was defined as a change in base excess to ≥ - 3 mEq/L at 48 h.

RESULTS

Ninety-three patients were enrolled with 90 patients included in the modified-intention-to-treat population (PL n = 48, SC n = 42). At 48 h, mean fluid administration was 6798 ± 4850 ml vs 6574 ± 3123 ml, median anion gap 6 mEq/L (IQR 5-7) vs 7 mEq/L (IQR 5-7) and median blood ketones 0.3 mmol/L (IQR 0.1-0.5) vs 0.3 (IQR 0.1-0.5) in the PL and SC groups. DKA resolution at 48 h occurred in 96% (PL) and 86% (SC) of patients; odds ratio 3.93 (95% CI 0.73-21.16, p = 0.111). At 24 h, DKA resolution occurred in 69% (PL) and 36% (SC) of patients; odds ratio 4.24 (95% CI 1.68-10.72, p = 0.002). The median ICU and hospital lengths of stay were 49 h (IQR 23-72) vs 55 h (IQR 41-80) and 81 h (IQR 58-137) vs 98 h (IQR 65-195) in the PL and SC groups.

CONCLUSION

Plasmalyte-148, compared to sodium chloride 0.9%, may lead to faster resolution of metabolic acidosis in patients with DKA without an increase in ketosis. These findings need confirmation in a large, Phase 3 trial.

An evaluation of factors that may influence clinicians' decisions not to enroll eligible patients into randomized trials in critical care

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between intensive care unit (ICU) characteristics and clinicians' decision to decline eligible patients for randomization into a multicentered pragmatic comparative-effectiveness controlled trial.

METHODS

Screening logs from the Adjunctive Glucocorticoid Therapy in Septic Shock Trial (ADRENAL) and site-level data from the College of Intensive Care Medicine and Australia New Zealand Intensive Care Society were examined. The effects of ICU characteristics such as tertiary academic status, research coordinator availability, number of admissions, and ICU affiliations on clinicians declining to randomize eligible patients were calculated using mixed effects logistic regression modelling.

RESULTS

There were 21,818 patients screened for inclusion in the ADRENAL trial at 69 sites across five countries, out of which 5,501 were eligible, 3,800 were randomized and 659 eligible patients were declined for randomization by the treating clinician. The proportion of eligible patients declined by clinicians at individual ICUs ranged from 0 to41%. In the multivariable model, none of the ICU characteristics were significantly associated with higher clinician decline rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither tertiary academic status, nor other site-level variables were significantly associated with increased rate of clinicians declining eligible patients.

Long-term costs and cost-effectiveness of adjunctive corticosteroids for patients with septic shock in New Zealand

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to determine whether adjunctive hydrocortisone reduced healthcare expenditure and was cost-effective compared with placebo in New Zealand patients in the Adjunctive Glucocorticoid Therapy in Patients with Septic Shock (ADRENAL) trial.

DESIGN

This is a health economic analysis using data linkage to New Zealand Ministry of Health databases to determine resource use, costs, and cost-effectiveness for a 24-month period.

SETTING

The study was conducted in New Zealand.

PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTION

Patients with septic shock were randomised to receive a 7-day continuous infusion of 200 mg of hydrocortisone or placebo in the ADRENAL trial.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Healthcare expenditure was associated with all hospital admissions, emergency department presentations, outpatient visits, and pharmacy expenditure. Effectiveness outcomes included mortality at 6 months and 24 months and quality of life at 6 months. Cost-effectiveness outcomes were assessed with reference to quality-adjusted life years gained at 6 months and life years gained at 24 months.

RESULTS

Of 3800 patients in the ADRENAL trial, 419 (11.0%) were eligible, and 405 (96.7% of those eligible) were included. The mean total costs per patient over 24 months were $143,627 ± 100,890 and $143,772 ± 97,117 for the hydrocortisone and placebo groups, respectively (p = 0.99). Intensive care unit costs for the index admission were $50,492 and $62,288 per patient for the hydrocortisone and placebo groups, respectively (p = 0.09). The mean number of quality-adjusted life years gained at 6 months and mean number of life years gained at 24 months was not significantly different by treatment group, and the probability of hydrocortisone being cost-effective was 55% at 24 months.

CONCLUSIONS

In New Zealand, adjunctive hydrocortisone did not reduce total healthcare expenditure or improve outcomes compared with placebo in patients with septic shock.

Higher vs lower doses of dexamethasone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxia (COVID STEROID 2) trial: Protocol and statistical analysis plan

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic has resulted in millions of deaths and overburdened healthcare systems worldwide. Systemic low‐dose corticosteroids have proven clinical benefit in patients with severe COVID‐19. Higher doses of corticosteroids are used in other inflammatory lung diseases and may offer additional clinical benefits in COVID‐19. At present, the balance between benefits and harms of higher vs. lower doses of corticosteroids for patients with COVID‐19 is unclear.

Methods

The COVID STEROID 2 trial is an investigator‐initiated, international, parallel‐grouped, blinded, centrally randomised and stratified clinical trial assessing higher (12 mg) vs. lower (6 mg) doses of dexamethasone for adults with COVID‐19 and severe hypoxia. We plan to enrol 1,000 patients in Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and India. The primary outcome is days alive without life support (invasive mechanical ventilation, circulatory support or renal replacement therapy) at day 28. Secondary outcomes include serious adverse reactions at day 28; all‐cause mortality at day 28, 90 and 180; days alive without life support at day 90; days alive and out of hospital at day 90; and health‐related quality of life at day 180. The primary outcome will be analysed using the Kryger Jensen and Lange test adjusted for stratification variables and reported as adjusted mean differences and median differences. The full statistical analysis plan is outlined in this protocol.

Discussion

The COVID STEROID 2 trial will provide evidence on the optimal dosing of systemic corticosteroids for COVID‐19 patients with severe hypoxia with important implications for patients, their relatives and society.

The relationship between adrenocortical candidate gene expression and clinical response to hydrocortisone in patients with septic shock

PURPOSE

To determine if adrenocortical gene expression is associated with clinical outcomes or response to corticosteroid treatment in septic shock.

METHODS

A pre-specified nested cohort study of a randomised controlled trial of hydrocortisone compared to placebo in septic shock. Blood was collected for RNAseq analysis prior to treatment with hydrocortisone or placebo. The expression of adrenocortical candidate genes related to pituitary releasing hormones, mineralocorticoid and glucocorticoid receptors, intracellular glucocorticoid metabolism and transport proteins was measured.

RESULTS

From May 2014 to April 2017, 671 patients were enrolled in the nested cohort study, from which 494 samples were available for analysis. We found no evidence of an association between candidate gene expression levels and either 90-day mortality, 28-day mortality or time to shock reversal. We observed evidence of a significant interaction between expression and treatment group for time to shock reversal in two genes; GLCCI1 (HR 3.81, 95%CI 0.57-25.47 vs. HR 0.64, 95%CI 0.13-3.07 for hydrocortisone and placebo respectively, p for interaction 0.008) and BHSD1 (HR 0.55, 95%CI 0.28-1.09 vs. HR 1.32 95%CI 0.67-2.60, p for interaction 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with septic shock, there is no association between adrenocortical candidate gene expression and mortality. Patients with higher expression of GLCCI1 who received hydrocortisone achieved shock resolution faster than those receiving placebo; conversely, patients who had higher expression of BHSD1 who received hydrocortisone achieved shock resolution slower than those who received placebo. Variation in gene expression may be a mechanism for heterogeneity of treatment response to corticosteroids in septic shock.