Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Level of technical efficiency and associated factors among health centers in East Gojjam Zone, Northwest Ethiopia: an application of the data envelopment analysis

BACKGROUND

Besides the scarcity of resources, inefficient utilization of available health service resources has been the bottleneck to deliver quality health services in Ethiopia. However, Information regarding the efficiency of health service providers is limited in the country. Health service managers and policy makers must be well informed about the efficiency of health service providers and ways of using limited resources efficiently to make evidence-based decisions. This study aimed to assess the level of technical efficiency and associated factors among health centers in East Gojjam Zone, Northwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 27 randomly selected health centers in East Gojjam zone, Northwest Ethiopia, from October 30, 2022, to April 30, 2023. Using an interviewer-administered questionnaire and document review checklist, health centers' data was collected and entered to Epi-Data version 4.6. The data was exported to Microsoft office excel and Stata version 14 for analysis. A two-stage output-oriented data envelopment analysis with a variable return to scale assumption was employed to determine the level of technical efficiencies. Finally, the tobit regression model was applied to identify the associated factors at 5% level of significance.

RESULTS

In this study, 59.3% of the health centers were technically efficient. The mean technical efficiency score of the health centers was 0.899 ± 0.156. Inefficient health centers could provide more 22, 433 outpatient visits, 1,351 family planning visits, 155 referral services, 206 skilled deliveries and 385 fully vaccinations of children if they were technically efficient as their peer health centers for the same year. From the tobit regression, the catchment population and number of administrative staffs were statistically significant determinants of the technical efficiency of health centers.

CONCLUSIONS

The mean technical efficiency of the health centers in East Gojjam zone, Northwest Ethiopia was high. However, nearly half of the health centers were technically inefficient, which indicates the exitance of a space for further improvements in the productivity of these health centers. Employing excess number administrative staffs (above the optimal level) should be discouraged and selecting appropriate sites where the health centers to be constructed (to have large catchment population coverage) could improve the productivity of health centers.

Clinical competency and associated factors among undergraduate nursing students studying in universities of Southern regional state of Ethiopia, 2021

Background

Clinical practice is the means by which nursing students learn to apply the theory, facilitating integration of theoretical knowledge and practical skill in the clinical setting which becomes arts and science of profession. This correlation of theory and practice, and the building of meaningful experience, take place during clinical practice in the health care service. Even though, nursing students need to have clinical competency during practical setting, there were little available evidences regarding to their competency status in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed to assess magnitude of clinical competency and its predictors among undergraduate nursing students studying in universities of Southern regional state of Ethiopia in 2021 G C.

Methods

Multi-centered institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted among 414 undergraduate nursing students studying in eight universities of Southern regional state of Ethiopia in 2021 academic year. Systematic random sampling technique after proportional allocation to each selected university was used to select the study participants. Data were collected using pretested structured questionnaire by face to face interview after written informed consent was obtained from each participant. Data were cleaned, coded and entered into Epidata version 3.01 and analyzed using statistical package for social science (SPSS) software version 26. Descriptive statistic for all variables and bi-variable and multi-variables logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with clinical competency was computed and expressed in odds ratio. The result was presented in the form of text, tables and figures and those variables with P-value of <0.05 in multivariable analysis were declared as statistically significant.

Result

From 423 total calculated sample sizes, 414 of them were participated in this study giving a response rate of 97.8%. From those participants, 248 (59.9%) of them has clinical competency [95% CI: (55.18%, 64.62%)]. In multivariable analysis, studying in post basic program [AOR: 5.58], conducive clinical learning environment [AOR: 4.10], good staff-student interaction [AOR: 7.44], satisfaction [AOR: 20.66] and positive attitude towards clinical practice [AOR: 2.49] were factors significantly associated with clinical competency.

Conclusion

In this study, the overall magnitude of clinical competency was found to be unsatisfactory (59.9%). Studying in private program, non-conducive clinical learning environment, poor staff-student interaction, low satisfaction and negative attitude towards clinical practice were identified as factors associated with clinical incompetency. Policy makers, universities and teaching health facilities need to work collaboratively to create nurses with clinical competency by focusing on proper screening to select candidates for studying in private program, creating conducive clinical learning environment, integrating students with clinical staffs to facilitate learning and positive attitude change of students towards their profession to increase level of satisfaction.

Patients' Satisfaction with Topical Anti-Glaucoma Medications and Associated Factors at Gondar University Tertiary Eye Care and Training Center, Northwest Ethiopia, 2021

Background

Glaucoma is one of the leading cause of global irreversible blindness if left untreated. Satisfaction is a multifaceted outcome based on sufficient information and encouragement from the practitioner and based on the medications' nature. Determining patients' satisfaction is essential to increase their courage in their long-time follow-up of medical care.

Objective

To assess Patients' satisfaction with topical anti-glaucoma medications and associated factors among glaucoma patients at Gondar University Tertiary Eye Care and Training Center, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

Hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted from June 30 to August 27, 2021, among 395 glaucoma patients at Gondar University Tertiary Eye Care and Training Center. Data was entered into Epi info version 7 and exported to SPSS version 26 software for analysis. A Binary logistic regression model was used to determine factors associated with satisfaction with topical anti-glaucoma medications. Statistical significance was considered when p-value < 0.05.

Results

A total of 395 study subjects participated in the study with a response rate of 93.38%. The overall satisfaction with topical anti-glaucoma medication was 62.5% with 95% CI: (57.5-67.8%). The absence of ocular side effects (AOR=5.39, 95% CI: 2.35-12.37) and the absence of ocular surface diseases (AOR=4.12, 95% CI: 1.69-10.09) were significantly associated with patient satisfaction.

Conclusion

More than half of the study participants were satisfied with topical anti-glaucoma medications. The absence of ocular side effects and absence of Ocular surface diseases were significantly associated with patient satisfaction with anti-glaucoma medication.

Married women pre-marital HIV testing status in Ethiopia: Individual and community level factor analysis

Introduction

Marriage between serodiscordant individuals accounts for 65-85% of new infections. Pre-marital Human Immune Virus (HIV) testing opens the door for HIV infection prevention and control. There are no studies that have evaluated the coverage and factors influencing pre-marital HIV testing at the community level in Ethiopia.

Methods

This study was conducted using 10,008 samples of data extracted from Ethiopian demographic and health surveys (EDHS), 2016. To identify individual and community level factors a multi-level binary logistic regression model was used. Among fitted models, "full" model was taken as the best model. To declare the presence or absence of significant association with pre-marital HIV testing, a p-value < 0.05 with confidence interval (CI) was used.

Results

In Ethiopia, 21.4% (95% CI: 20.6, 22.2%) of study participants had pre-marital HIV testing. Age 35-49 years (AOR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.66), educated (AOR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.17, 2.79), rich (AOR = 1.95; 95% CI: 1.13, 3.55), having media exposure (AOR = 1.54; 95% CI: 1.30, 4.71), and high community level literacy (AOR = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.22, 0.66) were factors significantly associated with pre-marital HIV testing.

Conclusion

The low coverage of pre-marital HIV testing in Ethiopia is insufficient to have a significant influence on the HIV/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. Information dissemination to create awareness about human rights and public health implications of pre-marital HIV testing áre necessary while it is made mandatory.

Pre-labor rupture of membranes and associated factors among pregnant women admitted to the maternity ward, Northwest Ethiopia

Pre-labor rupture of membranes (PROM) is the rupture of fetal membranes before the onset of labor. PROM is found in 3-15% of all pregnancies and 30-40% of preterm labor worldwide. The most serious complications are neonatal and prenatal mortality, which is higher in Africa, including Ethiopia. Despite a paucity of evidence on the magnitude and factors affecting PROM after 28 weeks of gestation but before the onset of labor (including both term and preterm PROM). Hence, the purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude and identify associated factors of the pre-labor rupture of membranes. An institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 315 pregnant women from April 10, 2019 to June 30, 2019 at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. The samples were chosen using a systematic random sampling method among admitted pregnant women. The data were entered using EpiData entry version 4.2 and cleaned and analyzed using Stata/SE version 14.0. In binary logistic regressions, variables with a p-value <0.20 are selected for multivariable analysis. A multivariable logistic regression model with a 95% confidence interval and a p-value <0.05 was used to identify associated factors. In this study, the magnitude of PROM was 19%. Maternal monthly income ≤1000 birr [AOR: 3.33 (95%CI: 1.33, 8.33)], gestational age <37weeks [AOR: 3. 28 (95%CI: 1.53, 7.02)], multiple pregnancy [AOR: 4.14 (95%CI: 1.78, 9.62)], polyhydramnios [AOR: 5.06 (95%CI: 2.28, 11.23)] and history of abnormal vaginal discharge [AOR: 6.65 (95%CI: 2.62, 16.72)] were found significant associated factors. In conclusion, the magnitude of the pre-labor rapture of the membranes was higher than in previous studies. Hence, health professionals should strengthen counseling, early diagnosis, and treatment of infections, as well as focus on women with pregnancy-related risks, to reduce pre-labor rupture of membranes and improve fetal and perinatal health.

Individual and community-level determinates of risky sexual behaviors among sexually active unmarried men: A multilevel analysis of 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

Background

In Ethiopia, HIV/AIDS continues to be a major public health problem mostly due to the high prevalence of risky sexual behaviors. However, research on risky sexual behavior and its determinants among unmarried men (never married, widowed, and divorced) who are highly vulnerable to risky sexual behavior was limited. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the magnitude of risky sexual behavior and its determinants among non-married men using a nationally representative sample.

Methods

The analysis was done on 5680 sexually active unmarried men aged 15–59 years using data from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic Health Survey (EDHS). The main outcome variable was risky sexual behavior which defined as having at least one of the following: multiple sexual partners; initiation of sex before the age of 18 years; inconsistent condom use in the last 12 months; alcohol consumption at last sex. Multivariable generalized linear mixed-effects regression was employed to identify variables associated with risky sexual behavior.

Result

The overall magnitude of risky sexual behavior was 26.9% (95% CI; 25.7, 28.0). Currently employed (AOR = 2.49, 95% CI = 1.64–3.77), history of HIV testing (AOR = 2.51, 95% C = 1.95–3.23), drinking alcohol almost every day (AOR = 5.49, 95 CI = 2.73–11.02), and using Internet daily (AOR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.06–3.74) increase the odds of risky sexual behavior. Whereas, primary education (AOR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.32–0.61), secondary education level (AOR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.29–0.72) and a high proportion of community-level media exposure (AOR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.12–0.75) decrease the odds of risky sexual behavior.

Conclusion

In general, a significant proportion of sexually active unmarried men in Ethiopia have practiced risky sexual behavior. An intervention should be designed which are against the factors found to increase the odds of risky sexual behavior to reduce the incidence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

Familiarity with emergency preparedness and its predictors among nurses and physicians working at public hospitals in east Gojjam zone, northwest Ethiopia

Objective:

Emergency preparedness and response operations for all types of catastrophes rely heavily on healthcare facilities and their staff. On the other hand, hospital employees suffer significant gaps in emergency preparedness knowledge and skills when it comes to treating mass casualties. The objective of this study was to assess the nurses’ and physicians’ familiarity with emergency preparedness and identify the associated factors.

Methods:

A facility-based cross-sectional survey was conducted by census utilizing a self-administered questionnaire among all nurses and physicians working in emergency departments in East Gojjam zone public hospitals. The collected data were entered into Epi-data version 4.2 and exported to SPSS 25.0 for further analysis. Frequency, mean, and standard deviation were computed to describe individual and other characteristics of the sample. A simple and multiple linear regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with familiarity with emergency preparedness. An unstandardized adjusted beta (β) coefficient with a 95 % confidence level was used to report the result of the association at a p-value of 0.05 statistical significance.

Results:

In this study, a total of 237 individuals completed the questionnaire, yielding a response rate of 94 %. The mean score of familiarity with emergency preparedness was 106.1 ± 31.8 (95% CI: 102, 110.1), with approximately 52.3 % scoring higher than the mean score. Self-regulation (B = 3.8, 95% CI: 2.6, 5), health care climate (B = 1.4, 95% CI: 0.4, 2.43) and participation in actual major disaster event (B = 15.5, 95% CI: 7.8, 23.2) were significant predictors of familiarity.

Conclusion:

According to the findings of this study, nurses’ and physicians’ expertise in emergency and disaster preparedness is inadequate. Previous engagement in actual disaster events, self-regulation, and the healthcare climate were significant predictors of familiarity. As a result, the responsible stakeholders should develop strategy to enhance self-regulation (motivation), job satisfaction of emergency department employees, and drills and hands-on training in mass casualty management.

Association between social supports and depression among patients with diabetes mellitus in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The adverse effects of poor social support on quality of life and adherence to treatment are established. However, the relationship between social support and depression is not well understood. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to examine the association between social support and depressive symptoms among type 2 patients with diabetes.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, African Journals Online, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library electronic databases. Some studies were also identified through manual Google search and Google scholar.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We systematically searched electronic databases for studies published up to October 2020. Only English-language articles were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Screening, data extraction and quality appraisal were conducted by two independent reviewers. A random-effect model was applied to estimate ORs with 95% CIs. The Higgins I² test was used to assess the heterogeneity between the studies. The risk of publication bias was estimated using the Egger test. Leave-one-out analysis was done. Data were analysed using Stata V.11.

RESULTS

Seven studies were included in the meta-analysis. The findings from included studies revealed that poor social support increases the odds of depression among patients with diabetes (adjusted OR=2.14, 95% CI 1.34 to 3.43, p=0.003). There was no risk of publication bias (p=0.064), and heterogeneity was substantial (I²=70.7%). The leave-one-out analysis confirmed the consistency of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis revealed that patients who had poor social support were significantly associated with an increased level of depression. Additional studies exploring factors that might moderate or mediate this association are needed. Targeted interventions for comorbid depression should be implemented in clinical practice.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

We have submitted the protocol for registration at the PROSPERO on 9 October 2020. But we have not yet received a registration number.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients admitted to treatment centers in North West Ethiopia; a retrospective cohort study, 2021

Background

Currently, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the leading cause of death and the rate of mortality is rapidly increasing over time. There is a paucity of information regarding the incidence and predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients from low-income countries, particularly in Ethiopia.

Objective

To assess incidence and predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients admitted to treatment centers in North West Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 552 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases at Debre Markos University and Tibebe Ghion Hospital COVID-19 treatment centers in North West Ethiopia from March 2020 to March 2021. Data were collected from patients’ medical records using a structured data extraction tool. Cox-proportional hazards regression models was fitted to identify significant predictors of mortality.

Result

The overall mortality rate of COVID-19 was 4.7, (95 % CI: 3.3–6.8) per 1000 person day observations. Older age (AHR: 4.9; 95% CI: 1.8, 13.5), rural residence (AHR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.64), presence of hypertension (AHR: 3.04; 95% CI: 1.18, 7.8), presence of diabetes mellitus (AHR: 8.1; 95% CI: 2.9, 22.4) and cardiovascular disease (AHR: 5.2; 95% CI: (1.69, 16.2) were significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusions

The rate of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in this study was low. COVID-19 patients from urban residences, older patients, and patients with comorbidity have a high risk of death. These high risk groups should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccinations, and early screening and appropriate intervention should be established on presentation to health facility.

Attitude of health professionals towards COVID-19 vaccination and associated factors among health professionals, Western Ethiopia: A cross-sectional survey

Introduction

Even though people of the world were eagerly waiting for the hope of vaccine development, vaccine hesitancy is becoming the top concern in both developed and developing countries. However, there is no adequate evidence regarding the attitude and perception of health professionals towards the COVID 19 vaccine in resource-limited settings like Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess health professionals’ attitudes and perceptions towards COVID 19 vaccine in Western Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among health care workers found in Nekemte town from April 14–21, 2021. A total of 439 health professionals present on duty during the study period was included in the study. The data were collected by using self-administered questionnaire. Epidata version 3.2 was used for data entry, and STATA version 14 was used for data analysis. The binary logistic regression model was employed to determine factors associated with the attitude towards COVID-19 vaccination. Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals was computed and statistical significance was declared at a 5% level (p-value < 0.05).

Result

A total of 431 health professionals participated in the study yielding a response rate of 98.1%. The results indicated that 51.28% (95%CI: 45.12%, 57.34%) of health professionals had a favorable attitude towards COVID-19 vaccination. Having good knowledge about the COVID-19 vaccine (AOR = 0.38, 95%CI: 0.22, 0.64, P-value <0.001) was negatively associated with unfavorable attitude towards COVID-19 vaccine, whereas age less than 30 years (AOR = 2.14, 95%CI:1.25,3.67, P-value <0.001), working in a private clinic (AOR = 7.77, 95% CI: 2.19, 27.58, P-value <0.001) and health center (AOR = 2.45, 95%CI: 1.01, 5.92, P-value = 0.045) were positively associated with unfavorable attitude towards COVID-19 vaccine.

Conclusion and recommendation

In general, the attitude and perception of health care professionals toward the COVID-19 vaccine in the study area were unsatisfactory. Knowledge about the COVID-19 vaccine, age of health care workers, and place of work are the factors which affects attitude towards COVID-19 vaccine. Thus, we recommend the media outlets and concerned bodies to work to develop trust among the public by disseminating accurate and consistent information about the vaccine.

Maternity Continuum Care Completion and Its Associated Factors in Northwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Continuum care is a basic package approach for women to receive essential services throughout pregnancy, childbirth, and postpartum, and it is critical for women and their infants' survival and well-being. Although it is an effective strategy for improving maternal and child health, it has not been implemented adequately in less developed countries, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, where 55% of women have been dropped out from the continuum of care. Therefore, this study is aimed at assessing maternity continuum care completion and its associated factors within northwest Ethiopia, 2020.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study design was considered among 504 women from March 10 to March 30, 2020, using pretested and structured questionnaires administered via face-to-face interviews. To select study participants, a simple random sampling technique was used. Data were coded, checked, and entered into EpiData software (V. 4.2), then transferred to SPSS (V. 25) for further analysis. A bivariable analysis with 95% CI was performed, and variables with P 0.25 during binary logistic regression were entered into a multivariable analysis to assess predictors' independent effect.

RESULTS

About 177 (37.6%) women completed maternal continuum care. Women with secondary education and above (AOR = 2.75, 95% CI 1.42-5.32), urban residence (AOR = 2.45, 95% CI 1.35-4.45), using ambulance transport (AOR = 3.96, 95% CI 2.19-7.19), mass media exposure (AOR = 3.64, 95% CI 2.02-6.56), and distance from health facilities (AOR = 3.22, 95% CI 1.84-5.63) showed significant positive associations with completion of maternity continuum care.

CONCLUSION

However, a higher proportion of mothers completed the continuum of maternity care in the district than Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 (9.1%); further interventions are compulsory to reach the acceptable level. Hence, comprehensive awareness-raising, education, and promotion activities at the community and health facility levels and empowering women in health care and decision-making backing to expand the completion of maternity continuum of care are necessary.

Late antenatal care utilization in Ethiopia: The effect of socio-economic inequities and regional disparities

Antenatal care (ANC) is one of the most crucial components of maternal health care services. However, less than two-third of pregnant women receive ANC at least once and only 32% had at least 4 ANC visits in Ethiopia. There is dearth of nationally representative data that indicate changes in utilization of ANC services at the end of health sector transformation plan I period (HSTP I) in the country. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate utilization of ANC the effect of socio-economic inequities and regional disparities in Ethiopia. The 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey data were used. A total of 5753 women in the reproductive age who gave live births in the five years preceding the survey were used for this study. Multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with ANC booking. This study indicated that 74% women had at least one ANC visit during their last pregnancy of which four out of ten did not receive the recommended 4+ visits. The proportion of women who had late ANC booking (i.e., first ANC visit to health facility after 4 months of pregnancy) was found to be 32% and significant disparities were observed across regions. Rural residency (adjusted OR (AOR): 1.62, 95% CI (1.28, 2.05)), being wealth (AOR: 0.69, 95% CI (0.55, 0.85)), education (AOR: 0.25, 95% CI (0.15, 0.40)) and being grand multi-parity (AOR: 1.35, 95% CI (1.005, 1.83)) were significantly associated with late ANC booking. ANC services utilization is far behind its targets and the proportion of pregnant women entering ANC late is high. It is necessary to intensify efforts to raise awareness about the need of early ANC initiation, particularly in rural areas.

Antiseizure medication nonadherence and its associated factors among Epileptic patients in Ethiopia, a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The majority of patients with epilepsy in resource-poor countries never receive proper treatment, and those who are started on anti-seizure medications quickly discontinue them. Medication noncompliance is extremely common, with estimates ranging from 26 to 79 percent. Non-adherence to antiseizure medications is associated with poor seizure control, increased morbidity, increased hospitalization time, poor quality of life, increased health care costs, and increased mortality in adults.

METHODS

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2009 guideline was used for this systematic review and meta-analysis. The databases Pub Med, Cochrane Library, Scopus Online, and Google Scholar were all searched. STATA™ version 11 software was used for the meta-analysis. The I² test and Egger's tests were used to assess heterogeneity and publication bias. The random-effects method was used to estimate the pooled adherence level with a 95 percent confidence interval.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included twelve Ethiopian studies involving a total of 3416 epileptic patients. The national pooled prevalence of antiseizure medication non-adherence was 41.96%. Patients who paid for their medications, took them for more than a year, had co-morbidity, and felt stigmatized were more likely to be non-adherent than their counterparts.

CONCLUSION

According to this systematic review and meta-analysis, more than two out of every five epileptic patients did not take their antiseizure medications as prescribed. Clinicians must educate epileptic patients about the importance of medication adherence.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

The review has been registered on an International Prospective Register of Systematic Review with registration number CRD42019142905.

Occupational Stress and Burnout Among Health Care Workers in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Objective

To estimate the pooled national burden of occupational stress, burnout, and contributing factors among health care workers in Ethiopia.

Data Sources

Both published and unpublished observational studies conducted on the burden of occupational stress and burnout among health workers in Ethiopia were included.

Study Selection

This systematic review and meta-analysis followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42020166585). The eligibility of the studies was evaluated based on predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Data Extraction

Data extraction was conducted using major databases; PubMed, Google Scholar, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health, Scopes, Cochrane Library, the Web of Science, and African Journals Online were involved in the review. Two reviewers extracted data independently using a standardized data extraction checklist on Microsoft Excel. Any discrepancy was resolved by including the third reviewer for a possible consensus.

Data Synthesis

Fourteen studies, with a total of 4066 health care workers, were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled burdens of occupational stress and burnout were 52.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 46.2-59.7) and 39.1% (95% CI, 23.9-52.3), respectively. Major determinants of occupational stress were being female (odds ratio [OR], 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3), being younger (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.03-1.9), having a lower educational level (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.05-7.2), and being satisfied with a job (OR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.2-0.5). Being married (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.9), having a lower educational level (OR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.4-0.8), and working in shifts (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.9) were significant predictors of burnout.

Conclusions

More than half and more than one-third of health care workers were affected by occupational stress and burnout, respectively, in Ethiopia, and sociodemographic and occupation-related factors were significant factors. Measures that improve job satisfaction, career development, and educational opportunities should be strengthened.

Magnitude of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases throughout the course of infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections are responsible for potentially significant transmission of COVID-19. Worldwide, a number of studies were conducted to estimate the magnitude of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. However, there is a need for more robust and well-designed studies to have a relevant public health intervention. Synthesis of the available studies significantly strengthens the quality of evidences for public health practice. Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the overall magnitude of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases throughout the course of infection using available evidences.

METHODS

We followed the PRISMA checklist to present this study. Two experienced review authors (MA and DBK) were systematically searched international electronic databases for studies. We performed meta-analysis using R statistical software. The overall weighted proportion of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases throughout the course infection was computed. The pooled estimates with 95% confidence intervals were presented using forest plot. Egger's tests were used to assess publication bias, and primary estimates were pooled using a random effects model. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to assure the robustness of the result.

RESULTS

A total of 28 studies that satisfied the eligibility criteria were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Consequently, in the meta-analysis, a total of 6,071 COVID-19 cases were included. The proportion of asymptomatic infections among the included studies ranged from 1.4% to 78.3%. The findings of this meta-analysis showed that the weighted pooled proportion of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases throughout the course of infection was 25% (95%CI: 16-38). The leave-one out result also revealed that the weighted pooled average of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was between 28% and 31.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, one-fourth of SARS-CoV-2 infections are remained asymptomatic throughout the course infection. Scale-up of testing, which targeting high risk populations is recommended to tackle the pandemic.

Impact of antenatal care on neonatal mortality among neonates in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

As compared to other regions of the world, Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the region with the highest neonatal mortality and is the region showing the least progress in the reduction of newborn death. Despite better progress made in reducing neonatal mortality, Ethiopia contributes the highest rate of neonatal death in Africa. In Ethiopia, findings from few studies were inconsistent and there is a need to systematically pool existing data to determine the impact of antenatal care on neonatal mortality among mother-neonate pairs in Ethiopia.

Methods

Published articles from various electronic databases such as Medline, Hinari, Pub Med, Cochrane library, the Web of Science, and Google Scholar were accessed. Also, unpublished studies from library catalogs were identified. All observational studies that were conducted on the association between antenatal care follow-up and neonatal mortality among neonates in Ethiopia were included. Data were extracted on the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and analyzed using STATA 14.1 version. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled estimate with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Forest plots were used to visualize the presence of heterogeneity and estimate the pooled impact on antenatal care on neonatal mortality. The presence of publication bias was assessed by funnel plots and Egger’s statistical tests.

Results

Initially, a total of 345 studies were accessed. Finally, 28 full-text studies were reviewed and fourteen studies fulfilled inclusion criteria and included in the final meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate indicates the odds of neonatal death among neonates from women with antenatal care were 65% lower than those neonates from women who had no antenatal care follow-up (OR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.51).

Conclusions

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, lack of ANC follow-up increase the probability of neonatal mortality as compared to having ANC follow-up. Thus, we will recommend for more coverages of appropriate antenatal care where risk groups can best be identified and managed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-020-00499-8.

Time to recovery and predictors of severe community-acquired pneumonia among pediatric patients in Debre Markos referral hospital, North West Ethiopia: A retrospective follow-up study

Introduction

Globally, pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children which leads to over 156 million episodes and 14.9 million hospitalizations each year. Besides this fact, the recovery time and predictors of children’s hospitalization related to severe community-acquired pneumonia is not well known. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the median time to recovery and its predictors among severe community-acquired pneumonia patients admitted to the pediatric ward, Debre Markos referral hospital, North West Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was employed among 352 records of children who were admitted starting from January 2016 to December 2018. Patients' charts were retrieved using a structured data extraction tool. Cox proportional hazard model assumption and model fitness was checked. Stratified Cox regression was fitted as a final model. Hazard ratio with its 95% confidence interval was used and P-value < 0.05 was considered as a statistically significant association.

Result

The overall median recovery time was 4 days IQR (3–7). Recovery rate from severe community acquired pneumonia was 16.25 (95% CI: 14.54–18.15) per 100 person day observation. Age (AHR; 0.94 95% CI (0.90–0.98)), being stunted (AHR; 0.62 95% CI (0.43–0.91)), presence of danger sign at admission (AHR; 0.61 95% CI (0.40–0.94)), late presentation to seek care(AHR; 0.64 95% CI (0.47–0.88)) and co-morbidity (AHR; 0.45 95% CI (0.35–0.58)) were significant predictors of recovery time.

Conclusion

The median recovery time from severe community-acquired pneumonia was long so that measures to reduce recovery time should be strengthened.