Mortality variability and differentials by age and causes of death in rural South Africa, 1994-2018

INTRODUCTION

Understanding mortality variability by age and cause is critical to identifying intervention and prevention actions to support disadvantaged populations. We assessed mortality changes in two rural South African populations over 25 years covering pre-AIDS and peak AIDS epidemic and subsequent antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability.

METHODS

Using population surveillance data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS; 1994-2018) and Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI; 2000-2018) for 5-year periods, we calculated life expectancy from birth to age 85, mortality age distributions and variation, and life-years lost (LYL) decomposed into four cause-of-death groups.

RESULTS

The AIDS epidemic shifted the age-at-death distribution to younger ages and increased LYL. For AHDSS, between 1994-1998 and 1999-2003 LYL increased for females from 13.6 years (95% CI 12.7 to 14.4) to 22.1 (95% CI 21.2 to 23.0) and for males from 19.9 (95% CI 18.8 to 20.8) to 27.1 (95% CI 26.2 to 28.0). AHRI LYL in 2000-2003 was extremely high (females=40.7 years (95% CI 39.8 to 41.5), males=44.8 years (95% CI 44.1 to 45.5)). Subsequent widespread ART availability reduced LYL (2014-2018) for women (AHDSS=15.7 (95% CI 15.0 to 16.3); AHRI=22.4 (95% CI 21.7 to 23.1)) and men (AHDSS=21.2 (95% CI 20.5 to 22.0); AHRI=27.4 (95% CI 26.7 to 28.2)), primarily due to reduced HIV/AIDS/TB deaths in mid-life and other communicable disease deaths in children. External causes increased as a proportion of LYL for men (2014-2018: AHRI=25%, AHDSS=17%). The share of AHDSS LYL 2014-2018 due to non-communicable diseases exceeded pre-HIV levels: females=43%; males=40%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight shifting burdens in cause-specific LYL and persistent mortality differentials in two populations experiencing complex epidemiological transitions. Results show high contributions of child deaths to LYL at the height of the AIDS epidemic. Reductions in LYL were primarily driven by lowered HIV/AIDS/TB and other communicable disease mortality during the ART periods. LYL differentials persist despite widespread ART availability, highlighting the contributions of other communicable diseases in children, HIV/AIDS/TB and external causes in mid-life and non-communicable diseases in older ages.

The Association Between Alcohol Use and Chronic Diseases' Treatment Outcomes Among Adults Aged 40 Years and Above in Rural South Africa

Chronic diseases are significant problems in South Africa. Chronic diseases' treatment outcomes are critical to the reduction of morbidity and mortality. There is limited data in South Africa on alcohol use and treatment outcomes of chronic diseases in older people. We analysed data from wave 1 of the Health and Ageing in Africa-a longitudinal Study in an INDEPTH community (HAALSI) study. We performed descriptive analysis to determine the prevalence of optimal chronic diseases' treatment outcomes (suppressed HIV viral load, normal blood pressure and normal blood sugar) and applied multivariate modified Poisson regression to determine the association between alcohol use and chronic diseases' treatment outcomes. The prevalence of optimal treatment outcomes were 87.4% for HIV, 42.7% for hypertension, 53.6% for diabetes mellitus and 52.4% for multimorbidity. Alcohol use did not negatively impact the treatment outcomes for HIV (aRR=1.00, 95%CI:0.93-1.09), hypertension (aRR=0.88, 95%CI:0.68-1.14), diabetes mellitus (aRR=0.73, 95%CI:0.44-1.22), and multimorbidity (aRR=1.00, 95%CI:0.93-1.09). Alcohol use was not significantly associated with treatment outcomes possibly due to underreporting of alcohol use. There is need to incorporate objective alcohol measurements in chronic diseases care settings. Furthermore, there is urgent need to strengthen the management of hypertension and diabetes, by adopting the strategies deployed for HIV management.

The Heart of the World

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality globally. Of the 20.5 million CVD-related deaths in 2021, approximately 80% occurred in low- and middle-income countries. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, NCD Countdown initiative, WHO Global Health Observatory, and WHO Global Health Expenditure database, we present the burden of CVDs, associated risk factors, their association with national health expenditures, and an index of critical policy implementation. The Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia region face the highest levels of CVD mortality globally. Although CVD mortality levels are generally lower in women than men, this is not true in almost 30% of countries in the North Africa and Middle East and Sub-Saharan regions. Raised blood pressure remains the leading global CVD risk factor, contributing to 10.8 million deaths in 2019. The regions with the highest proportion of countries achieving the maximum score for the WHF Policy Index were South Asia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, and the High-Income regions. The Sub-Saharan Africa region had the highest proportion of countries scoring two or less. Policymakers must assess their country's risk factor profile to craft effective strategies for CVD prevention and management. Fundamental strategies such as the implementation of National Tobacco Control Programmes, ensuring the availability of CVD medications, and establishing specialised units within health ministries to tackle non-communicable diseases should be embraced in all countries. Adequate healthcare system funding is equally vital, ensuring reasonable access to care for all communities.

Indirect effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health in South Africa

BACKGROUND

The unfinished burden of poor maternal and child health contributes to the quadruple burden of disease in South Africa with the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic yet to be fully documented.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the indirect effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health in different geographical regions and relative wealth quintiles.

METHODS

We estimated the effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health from April 2020 to June 2021. We estimated this by calculating mean changes across facilities, relative wealth index (RWI) quintiles, geographical areas and provinces. To account for confounding by underlying seasonal or linear trends, we subsequently fitted a segmented fixed effect panel model.

RESULTS

A total of 4956 public sector facilities were included in the analysis. Between April and September 2020, full immunisation and first dose of measles declined by 6.99% and 2.44%, respectively. In the follow-up months, measles first dose increased by 4.88% while full immunisation remained negative (-0.65%) especially in poorer quintiles. At facility level, the mean change in incidence and mortality due to pneumonia, diarrhoea and severe acute malnutrition was negative. Change in first antenatal visits, delivery by 15-19-year olds, delivery by C-section and maternal mortality was positive but not significant.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 disrupted utilisation of child health services. While reduction in child health services at the start of the pandemic was followed by an increase in subsequent months, the recovery was not uniform across different quintiles and geographical areas. This study highlights the disproportionate impact of the pandemic and the need for targeted interventions to improve utilisation of health services.

Agreement between cause of death assignment by computer-coded verbal autopsy methods and physician coding of verbal autopsy interviews in South Africa

BACKGROUND

The South African national cause of death validation (NCODV 2017/18) project collected a national sample of verbal autopsies (VA) with cause of death (COD) assignment by physician-coded VA (PCVA) and computer-coded VA (CCVA).

OBJECTIVE

The performance of three CCVA algorithms (InterVA-5, InSilicoVA and Tariff 2.0) in assigning a COD was compared with PCVA (reference standard).

METHODS

Seven performance metrics assessed individual and population level agreement of COD assignment by age, sex and place of death subgroups. Positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, overall agreement, kappa, and chance corrected concordance (CCC) assessed individual level agreement. Cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy and Spearman's rank correlation assessed population level agreement.

RESULTS

A total of 5386 VA records were analysed. PCVA and CCVAs all identified HIV/AIDS as the leading COD. CCVA PPV and sensitivity, based on confidence intervals, were comparable except for HIV/AIDS, TB, maternal, diabetes mellitus, other cancers, and some injuries. CCVAs performed well for identifying perinatal deaths, road traffic accidents, suicide and homicide but poorly for pneumonia, other infectious diseases and renal failure. Overall agreement between CCVAs and PCVA for the top single cause (48.2-51.6) indicated comparable weak agreement between methods. Overall agreement, for the top three causes showed moderate agreement for InterVA (70.9) and InSilicoVA (73.8). Agreement based on kappa (-0.05-0.49)and CCC (0.06-0.43) was weak to none for all algorithms and groups. CCVAs had moderate to strong agreement for CSMF accuracy, with InterVA-5 highest for neonates (0.90), Tariff 2.0 highest for adults (0.89) and males (0.84), and InSilicoVA highest for females (0.88), elders (0.83) and out-of-facility deaths (0.85). Rank correlation indicated moderate agreement for adults (0.75-0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst CCVAs identified HIV/AIDS as the leading COD, consistent with PCVA, there is scope for improving the algorithms for use in South Africa.

The Effects of Participation in an Intensive HIV Prevention Trial on Long-Term Socio-Demographic Outcomes Among Young Women in Rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Research trial participation may influence health outcomes regardless of the intervention assigned, but is often not assessed.

SETTING

We investigated how participation in an HIV prevention trial (the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 068 study) affected health outcomes 4 years after the study in adolescent girls and young women in South Africa beyond effects of the tested intervention.

METHODS

We developed an analytical cohort that included the HIV Prevention 068 trial (HPTN 068) trial participants from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System and resembled HPTN 068 trial enrollees (aged 13-20 years and in grades 8-11 in 2011) using inverse probability of treatment weights. We estimated risk differences for the association between trial participation and education and early parity (age <20 years) in 2019, after accounting for differences at baseline between the trial participants and nonparticipants.

RESULTS

There were 3442 young women enrolled in grades 8-11 in 2011; 1669 were in the HPTN 068 trial. Trial participants were more likely to have completed secondary school by 2019 (adjusted RD (aRD) 5.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2%, 7.9%; 82.3% in trial participants vs. 77.2% in nonparticipants). Trial participants had similar risk of parity before age 20 compared with nontrial participants (aRD 2.3%, 95% CI: -0.8%, 5.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Trial participation did not seem to influence early parity, but did increase educational attainment. Our results are compatible with an explanation of Hawthorne effects from trial participation on schooling behaviors that were small, but observable even 4 years after the end of the trial.

Household structure, composition and child mortality in the unfolding antiretroviral therapy era in rural South Africa: comparative evidence from population surveillance, 2000-2015

OBJECTIVES

The structure and composition of the household has important influences on child mortality. However, little is known about these factors in HIV-endemic areas and how associations may change with the introduction and widespread availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We use comparative, longitudinal data from two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa (2000-2015) on mortality of children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

DESIGN

We use multilevel discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's probability of dying by their matrilineal residential arrangements. We also test if associations have changed over time with ART availability.

SETTING

Rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

RESULTS

3603 children died between 2000 and 2015. Mortality risks differed by co-residence patterns along with different types of kin present in the household. Children in nuclear households with both parents had the lowest risk of dying compared with all other household types. Associations with kin and child mortality were moderated by parental status. Having older siblings lowered the probability of dying only for children in a household with both parents (relative risk ratio (RRR)=0.736, 95% CI (0.633 to 0.855)). Only in the later ART period was there evidence that older adult kin lowered the probability of dying for children in single parent households (RRR=0.753, 95% CI (0.664 to 0.853)).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide comparative evidence of how differential household profiles may place children at higher mortality risk. Formative research is needed to understand the role of other household kin in promoting child well-being, particularly in one-parent households that are increasingly prevalent.

Identifying the prevalence and correlates of multimorbidity in middle-aged men and women: a cross-sectional population-based study in four African countries

OBJECTIVES

To determine the prevalence of multimorbidity, to identify which chronic conditions cluster together and to identify factors associated with a greater risk for multimorbidity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional, multicentre, population-based study.

SETTING

Six urban and rural communities in four sub-Saharan African countries.

PARTICIPANTS

Men (n=4808) and women (n=5892) between the ages of 40 and 60 years from the AWI-Gen study.

MEASURES

Sociodemographic and anthropometric data, and multimorbidity as defined by the presence of two or more of the following conditions: HIV infection, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, asthma, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension.

RESULTS

Multimorbidity prevalence was higher in women compared with men (47.2% vs 35%), and higher in South African men and women compared with their East and West African counterparts. The most common disease combination at all sites was dyslipidaemia and hypertension, with this combination being more prevalent in South African women than any single disease (25% vs 21.6%). Age and body mass index were associated with a higher risk of multimorbidity in men and women; however, lifestyle correlates such as smoking and physical activity were different between the sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

The high prevalence of multimorbidity in middle-aged adults in SSA is of concern, with women currently at higher risk. This prevalence is expected to increase in men, as well as in the East and West African region with the ongoing epidemiological transition. Identifying common disease clusters and correlates of multimorbidity is critical to providing effective interventions.

Physical Activity and Its Association With Body Mass Index: A Cross-Sectional Analysis in Middle-Aged Adults From 4 Sub-Saharan African Countries

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to explore association of self-reported physical activity domains of work, leisure, and transport-related physical activity and body mass index (BMI) in 9388 adult men and women from the Africa-Wits-INDEPTH partnership for Genomic (AWI-Gen) study in Africa. Africa-Wits-INDEPTH partnership for Genomic is a large, population-based cross-sectional cohort with participants from 6 sites from rural and urban areas in 4 sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

A sex-stratified meta-analysis of cross-sectional data from men and women aged 29-82 years was used to assess the association of physical activity with BMI.

RESULTS

Overall, meeting physical activity guidelines of at least 150 minutes per week was associated with 0.82 kg/m2 lower BMI in men (β = -0.80 kg/m2; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.14 to -0.47) and 0.68 kg/m2 lower BMI in women (β = -0.68 kg/m2; 95% CI, -1.03 to -0.33). Sex and site-specific differences were observed in the associations between physical activity domains and BMI. Among those who met physical activity guidelines, there was an inverse association between transport-related physical activity and BMI in men from Nanoro (Burkina Faso) (β = -0.79 kg/m2; 95% CI, -1.25 to -0.33) as well as work-related physical activity and BMI in Navrongo men (Ghana) (β = -0.76 kg/m2; 95% CI, -1.25 to -0.27) and Nanoro women (β = -0.90 kg/m2; 95% CI, -1.44 to -0.36).

CONCLUSIONS

Physical activity may be an effective strategy to curb rising obesity in Africa. More studies are needed to assess the impact of sex and geographic location-specific physical activity interventions on obesity.

TRENDS IN HOUSEHOLD MATERIAL RESOURCES AND COGNITIVE HEALTH IN A LONGITUDINAL COHORT STUDY OF AGING IN SOUTH AFRICA

Material resources that affect daily living conditions may be salient for cognitive aging in low-income settings, but evidence is limited on this topic. We investigated relationships between long-term trends in household material resources and subsequent cognitive function among 4,580 adults aged ≥40 in a population-representative cohort in Agincourt sub-district, South Africa, from 2001-2015. Household material resources (dwelling materials, water, sanitation, sources of power, modern amenities, and livestock) were assessed biennially from 2001-2013. We evaluated mean resources, volatility in resources, and change in resources over this period in relation to cognitive function in 2014/2015. Higher mean household resources and larger improvements over time in resources were positively associated with subsequent cognitive function, independent of confounders. Findings were largely driven by modern amenities for food preparation, transportation, and communication outside of the household. Access to these amenities may support cognitive aging through boosting nutrition and cognitive reserve and should be investigated further.

Pension exposure and health: Evidence from a longitudinal study in South Africa

Social protection schemes have been expanding around the world with the objective of protecting older persons during retirement. While theoretically they have been seen as tools to improve individual wellbeing, there are few studies that evaluate whether social pensions can improve health. In this study, we exploit the change in eligibility criteria for the South African Old Age grant to estimate the association between pension exposure eligibility and health of older persons. For this, we use data from the Health and Aging in Africa: A longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) and model pension exposure in terms of its cumulative effect. Our results show that pension exposure is associated with better health as measured by a set of health indices. Disentangling these effects, we find that pension exposure is most likely to improve health through the delayed onset of physical disabilities in the elderly population. Our study highlights the relevance of social protection schemes as a mechanism to protect older persons physical health.

Evaluating pregnancy reporting in Siaya Health and Demographic Surveillance System through record linkage with ANC clinics

Introduction

Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) are important sources of population health data in sub-Saharan Africa, but the recording of pregnancies, pregnancy outcomes, and early mortality is often incomplete.

Objective

This study assessed HDSS pregnancy reporting completeness and identified predictors of unreported pregnancies that likely ended in adverse outcomes.

Methods

The analysis utilized individually-linked HDSS and antenatal care (ANC) data from Siaya, Kenya for pregnancies in 2018-2020. We cross-checked ANC records with HDSS pregnancy registrations and outcomes. Pregnancies observed in the ANC that were missing reports in the HDSS despite a data collection round following the expected delivery date were identified as likely adverse outcomes, and we investigated the characteristics of such individuals. Clinical data were used to investigate the timing of HDSS pregnancy registration relative to care seeking and gestational age, and examine misclassification of miscarriages and stillbirths.

Results

From an analytical sample of 2,475 pregnancies observed in the ANC registers, 46% had pregnancy registrations in the HDSS, and 89% had retrospectively reported pregnancy outcomes. 1% of registered pregnancies were missing outcomes, compared to 10% of those lacking registration. Registered pregnancies had higher rates of stillbirth and perinatal mortality than those lacking registration. In 77% of cases, women accessed ANC prior to registering the pregnancy in the HDSS. Half of reported miscarriages were misclassified stillbirths. We identified 141 unreported pregnancies that likely ended in adverse outcomes. Such cases were more common among those who visited ANC clinics during the first trimester, made fewer overall visits, were HIV-positive, and outside of formal union.

Conclusions

Record linkage with ANC clinics revealed pregnancy underreporting in HDSS, resulting in biased measurement of perinatal mortality. Integrating records of ANC usage into routine data collection can augment HDSS pregnancy surveillance and improve monitoring of adverse pregnancy outcomes and early mortality.

Multimorbidity and mortality in an older, rural black South African population cohort with high prevalence of HIV findings from the HAALSI Study

OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in high-income countries. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between multimorbidity (≥2 of the following chronic medical conditions: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, anaemia, HIV, angina, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, alcohol dependence) and all-cause mortality in an older, rural black South African population. We further investigated the relationship between HIV multimorbidity (HIV as part of the multimorbidity cluster) and mortality, while testing for the effect of frailty in all models.

DESIGN

Population cohort study.

SETTING

Agincourt subdistrict of Mpumalanga province, South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

4455 individuals (54.7% female), aged ≥40 years (median age 61 years, IQR 52-71) and resident in the study area.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was time to death and the secondary outcome measure was likelihood of death within 2 years of the initial study visit. Mortality was determined during annual population surveillance updates.

RESULTS

3157 individuals (70.9%) had multimorbidity; 29% of these had HIV. In models adjusted for age and sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity was associated with greater risk of death (women: HR 1.72; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.50; men: HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.95) and greater odds of dying within 2 years (women: OR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.32 to 4.16; men: OR 1.51; 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.24). HIV multimorbidity was associated with increased risk of death compared with non-HIV multimorbidity in men (HR 1.93; 95% CI: 1.05 to 3.54), but was not statistically significant in women (HR 1.85; 95% CI: 0.85 to 4.04); when detectable, HIV viral loads were higher in men (p=0.021). Further adjustment for frailty slightly attenuated the associations between multimorbidity and mortality risk (women: HR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.26; men: HR 1.36; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.82), but slightly increased associations between HIV multimorbidity and mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in this older black South African population. Health systems which currently focus on HIV should be reorganised to optimise identification and management of other prevalent chronic diseases.

Population-level adult mortality following the expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Rakai, Uganda

There are limited data on the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-level adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data for 2000-14 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, where free ART was scaled up after 2004. Using non-parametric and parametric (Weibull) survival analysis, we estimated trends in average person-years lived between exact ages 15 and 50, per capita life-years lost to HIV, and the mortality hazards of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Between 2000 and 2014, average adult life-years lived before age 50 increased significantly, from 26.4 to 33.5 years for all women and from 28.6 to 33.8 years for all men. As of 2014, life-years lost to HIV had declined significantly, to 1.3 years among women and 0.4 years among men. Following the roll-out of ART, mortality reductions among PLHIV were initially larger in women than men, but this is no longer the case.

HIV treatment cascade for older adults in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVES

The HIV treatment cascade is a powerful framework for understanding progress from initial diagnosis to successful treatment. Data sources for cascades vary and often are based on clinical cohorts, population cohorts linked to clinics, or self-reported information. We use both biomarkers and self-reported data from a large population-based cohort of older South Africans to establish the first HIV cascade for this growing segment of the HIV-positive population and compare results using the different data sources.

METHODS

Data came from the Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) 2015 baseline survey of 5059 adults aged 40+ years. Dried blood spots (DBS) were screened for HIV, antiretroviral drugs and viral load. In-home surveys asked about HIV testing, diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. We calculated proportions and CIs for each stage of the cascade, conditional on attainment of the previous stage, using (1) biomarkers, (2) self-report and (3) both biomarkers and self-report, and compared with UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets.

RESULTS

4560 participants had DBS results, among whom 1048 (23%) screened HIV-positive and comprised the denominator for each cascade. The biomarker cascade showed 63% (95% CI 60 to 66) on ART and 72% (95% CI 69 to 76) of those on ART with viral suppression. Self-reports underestimated testing, diagnosis and ART, with only 47% (95% CI 44 to 50) of HIV-positive individuals reporting ART use. The combined cascade indicated high HIV testing (89% (95% CI 87 to 91)), but lower knowledge of HIV-positive status (71% (95% CI 68 to 74)).

CONCLUSIONS

Older South Africans need repeated HIV testing and sustained ART to reach 90-90-90 targets. HIV cascades relying on self-reports are likely to underestimate true cascade attainment, and biomarkers provide substantial improvements to cascade estimates.

Sociodemographic, socioeconomic, clinical and behavioural predictors of body mass index vary by sex in rural South African adults-findings from the AWI-Gen study

Background: Despite increasing obesity in South African adults, data on the prevalence and determinants of body mass index (BMI) from rural communities, home to a significant proportion of the population, are scarce.

Objectives: To investigate overall and sex-specific determinants of BMI in a rural adult South African population undergoing rapid social and epidemiological transitions.

Methods: Baseline cross-sectional demographic, socioeconomic, anthropometric, clinical and behavioural data were collected between 2015 and 2016 from 1388 individuals aged 40–60 years and resident in the Agincourt sub-district of Mpumalanga province, a setting typical of rural northeast South Africa. A Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) underpins the sub-district and contributes to the Africa Wits-INDEPTH partnership for Genomic Studies (AWI-Gen). Linear regression was used to investigate univariate associations between log-transformed BMI and individual variables and multiple linear regression was used to investigate independent predictors of BMI overall and in sex-stratified analyses.

Results: Median BMI was significantly higher in females (28.7 kg/m²[95% CI 24.2–33.2] vs 23.0 kg/m²[95% CI 20.3–26.8];p < 0.001) with male sex associated with 17% lower BMI. In sex-stratified multiple linear regression models, compared to those never married, BMI was 7% higher in currently married males and 6% in currently married females. Current smoking in men and former smoking in women were associated with reductions in BMI of 13% and 26% respectively, compared with non-smokers. Higher educational attainment in women and higher socioeconomic status in men were both associated with higher BMI, while being HIV-positive and alcohol consumption in women were associated lower BMI.

Conclusions: Female sex strongly predicts higher BMI in this rural African population. While some predictors of higher BMI differ by sex, married individuals in both sexes had a higher BMI, suggesting that, in addition to developing sex-specific interventions to combat overweight and obesity, targeting married couples may result in reduction in population BMI.

An integrated approach to processing WHO-2016 verbal autopsy data: the InterVA-5 model

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy is an increasingly important methodology for assigning causes to otherwise uncertified deaths, which amount to around 50% of global mortality and cause much uncertainty for health planning. The World Health Organization sets international standards for the structure of verbal autopsy interviews and for cause categories that can reasonably be derived from verbal autopsy data. In addition, computer models are needed to efficiently process large quantities of verbal autopsy interviews to assign causes of death in a standardised manner. Here, we present the InterVA-5 model, developed to align with the WHO-2016 verbal autopsy standard. This is a harmonising model that can process input data from WHO-2016, as well as earlier WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats, to generate standardised cause-specific mortality profiles for diverse contexts. The software development involved building on the earlier InterVA-4 model, and the expanded knowledge base required for InterVA-5 was informed by analyses from a training dataset drawn from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration verbal autopsy reference dataset, as well as expert input.

RESULTS

The new model was evaluated against a test dataset of 6130 cases from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration and 4009 cases from the Afghanistan National Mortality Survey dataset. Both of these sources contained around three quarters of the input items from the WHO-2016, WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats. Cause-specific mortality fractions across all applicable WHO cause categories were compared between causes assigned in participating tertiary hospitals and InterVA-5 in the test dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.92 for children and 0.86 for adults. The InterVA-5 model's capacity to handle different input formats was evaluated in the Afghanistan dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.97 and 0.96 between the WHO-2016 and the WHO-2012 format for children and adults respectively, and 0.92 and 0.87 between the WHO-2016 and the Tariff-2 format respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the inherent difficulties of determining "truth" in assigning cause of death, these findings suggest that the InterVA-5 model performs well and succeeds in harmonising across a range of input formats. As more primary data collected under WHO-2016 become available, it is likely that InterVA-5 will undergo minor re-versioning in the light of practical experience. The model is an important resource for measuring and evaluating cause-specific mortality globally.

Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up after antiretroviral therapy initiation in rural north-eastern South Africa

Objective

The vital status of patients lost to follow‐up often remains unknown in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in sub‐Saharan Africa because medical records are no longer updated once the patient disengages from care. Thus, we aimed to assess the outcomes of patients lost to follow‐up after ART initiation in north‐eastern South Africa.

Methods

Using data from a rural area in north‐eastern South Africa, we estimated the cumulative incidence of patient outcomes (i) after treatment initiation using clinical records, and (ii) after loss to follow‐up (LTFU) using data from clients that have been individually linked to Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) database. Aside from LTFU, we considered mortality, re‐engagement and migration out of the study site. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify covariates of these patient outcomes.

Results

Between April 2014 and July 2017, 3700 patients initiated ART and contributed a total of 6818 person‐years of follow‐up time. Three years after ART initiation, clinical record‐based estimates of LTFU, mortality and documented transfers were 41.0% (95% CI: 38.5–43.4%), 1.9% (95% CI 1.0–3.2%) and 0.1% (95% CI 0.0–0.9%), respectively. Among those who were LTFU, the cumulative incidence of re‐engagement, out‐migration and mortality at 3 years were 38.1% (95% CI 33.1–43.0%), 49.4% (95% CI 43.1–55.3%) and 4.7% (95% CI 3.5–6.2%), respectively. Pregnant or breastfeeding women, foreigners and those who initiated ART most recently were at an increased risk of LTFU.

Conclusion

LTFU among patients starting ART in north‐eastern South Africa is relatively high and has increased in recent years as more asymptomatic patients have initiated treatment. Even though this tendency is of concern in light of the prevention of onwards transmission, we also found that re‐engagement in care is common and mortality among persons LTFU relatively low.

Health Inequalities in the South African elderly: The Importance of the Measure of Social-Economic Status

A common approach when studying inequalities in health is to use a wealth index based on household durable goods as a proxy for socio-economic status. We test this approach for elderly health using data from an aging survey in a rural area of South Africa and find much steeper gradients for health with consumption adjusted for household size than with the wealth index. These results highlight the importance of the measure of socioeconomic status used when measuring health gradients, and the need for direct measures of household consumption or income in ageing studies.

Task shifting to improve the provision of integrated chronic care: realist evaluation of a lay health worker intervention in rural South Africa

Introduction

Task shifting is a potential solution to the shortage of healthcare personnel in low/middle-income countries, but contextual factors often dilute its effectiveness. We report on a task shifting intervention using lay health workers to support clinic staff in providing chronic disease care in rural South Africa, where the HIV epidemic and an ageing population have increased demand for care.

Methods

We conducted a realist evaluation in a cluster randomised controlled trial. We conducted observations in clinics, focus group discussions, in-depth interviews and patient exit interviews, and wrote weekly diaries to collect data.

Results

All clinic managers had to cope with an increasing but variable patient load and unplanned staff shortages, insufficient space, poorly functioning equipment and erratic supply of drugs. These conditions inevitably generated tension among staff. Lay health workers relieved the staff of some of their tasks and improved care for patients, but in some cases the presence of the lay health worker generated conflict with other staff. Where managers were able to respond to the changing circumstances, and to contain tension among staff, facilities were better able to meet patient needs. This required facility managers to be flexible, consultative and willing to act on suggestions, sometimes from junior staff and patients. While all facilities experienced an erratic supply of drugs and poorly maintained equipment, facilities where there was effective management, teamwork and sufficient space had better chronic care processes and a higher proportion of patients attending on their appointed day.

Conclusion

Lay health workers can be valuable members of a clinic team, and an important resource for managing increasing patient demand in primary healthcare. Task shifting will only be effective if clinic managers respond to the constantly changing system and contain conflict between staff. Strengthening facility-level management and leadership skills is a priority.

Trial registration number

ISRCTN12128227.

Sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa: trends and comparisons

There is limited information about sexual behavior among older Africans, which is problematic given high HIV rates among older adults. We use a population-based survey among people aged 15-80+ to examine the prevalence of sexual risk and protective behaviors in the context of a severe HIV epidemic. We focus on variation across the life course, gender and HIV serostatus to compare the similarities and differences of young, middle aged, and older adults. Younger adults continue to be at risk of HIV, with potential partners being more likely to have been diagnosed with an STI and more likely to have HIV, partner change is high, and condom use is low. Middle aged and older adults engage in sexual behavior that makes them vulnerable at older ages, including extramarital sex, low condom use, and cross-generational sex with people in age groups with the highest rates of HIV. We find insignificant differences between HIV positive and negative adults' reports of recent sexual activity. This study provides new information on sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa to inform HIV prevention and treatment programing.

Impact of linkage quality on inferences drawn from analyses using imperfectly matched data with high rates of linkage errors

IntroductionStudies based on high-quality linked data in developed countries show that residual linkage errors impact the bias and precision of subsequent analyses. Since 2015, we conducted point-of-contact interactive record linkage (PIRL) between serological survey data and manually digitised medical records with low data quality from three clinics in rural Tanzania. Objectives and ApproachWe sought to determine the impact of the substantial linkage errors made by automated probabilistic linkage (a commonly used, less accurate, but much cheaper alternative to PIRL) on the bias and precision of inferences drawn from Cox regression analyses, comparing time from a positive HIV diagnostic test to registration at a local HIV care and treatment clinic (CTC) by testing modality (sero-survey vs. clinic). Using PIRL links as the gold standard, we quantified false/missed matches, compared characteristics between linked and unlinked data, and evaluated regression estimates at low, medium, and high (25th, 50th, and 75th percentile) match score thresholds. ResultsBetween 2015-2017, 297 and 147 individuals with gold standard links received HIV+ test results in sero-surveys and clinics, respectively. Automated probabilistic linkage correctly identified 276 individuals (positive predictive value [PPV]=62%) at the low threshold and 43 individuals (PPV=96%) at the high threshold. At the lowest threshold, false matches were more likely to be clinic testers and less likely to register at CTC. These differences attenuated with increased threshold. Testing modality was significantly associated with time to CTC registration in the gold standard data (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 6.42, 95%CI 4.45-9.28). Increasing false matches progressively weakened the association (low threshold: HR 4.99, 95%CI 3.45-7.21). Increases in missed matches were strongly correlated with a reduction in the precision of coefficient estimates (R-squared=0.94; p=0.0001). Conclusion/ImplicationsWhile the significance of inferences did not change, a clear direction of bias was identified. High rates of false matches in this setting reduced the magnitude of the association; missed matches reduced precision. Adjusting for these biases could provide more robust results using data with considerable linkage errors.

Can lay health workers support the management of hypertension? Findings of a cluster randomised trial in South Africa

Introduction

In low/middle-income countries with substantial HIV and tuberculosis epidemics, health services often neglect other highly prevalent chronic conditions, such as hypertension, which as a result are poorly managed. This paper reports on a study to assess the effect on hypertension management of lay health workers (LHW) working in South African rural primary healthcare clinics to support the provision of integrated chronic care.

Methods

A pragmatic cluster randomised trial with a process evaluation in eight rural clinics assessed the effect of adding two LHWs supporting nurses in providing chronic disease care in each intervention clinic over 18 months. Control clinics continued with usual care. The main outcome measure was the change in the difference of percentage of clinic users who had elevated cardiovascular risk associated with high blood pressure (BP) before and after the intervention, as measured by two cross-sectional population surveys.

Results

There was no improvement in BP control among users of intervention clinics as compared with control clinics. However, the LHWs improved clinic functioning, including overall attendance, and attendance on the correct day. All clinics faced numerous challenges, including rapidly increasing number of users of chronic care, unreliable BP machines and cuffs, intermittent drug shortages and insufficient space.

Conclusion

LHWs improved the process of providing care but improved BP control required improved clinical care by nurses which was compromised by large and increasing numbers of patients, the dominance of the vertically funded HIV programme and the poor standards of equipment in clinics.

Trial registration number

ISRCTN12128227.

Point-of-contact interactive record linkage (PIRL) between demographic surveillance and health facility data in rural Tanzania

INTRODUCTION

Health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) have been an invaluable resource for monitoring the health status of populations, but often contain self-reported health service utilisation, which are subject to reporting bias.

OBJECTIVE

To implement point-of-contact interactive record linkage (PIRL) between demographic and health facility systems data, characterise attributes associated with (un)successful record linkage, and compare findings with a fully automated retrospective linkage approach.

METHODS

Individuals visiting the Kisesa Health Centre were matched to their HDSS records during a short up-take interview in the waiting area of the health facility. The search algorithm was used to rank potential matches, from which the true match(es) were selected after consultation with the patient. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify characteristics associated with being matched to an HDSS record. Records matched based on respondent's clarifications were subsequently used as the gold-standard to evaluate fully automated retrospective record linkage by calculating sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV).

RESULTS

Among 2,624 individuals who reportedly lived in the HDSS coverage area, we matched 2,206 (84.1%) to their HDSS records. Characteristics associated with a higher odds of being matched were increased age (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02, 1.12; per 5-year increment), a later consent into the study (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.37, 3.12; in the most recent six-month period), and fieldworker level of experience. The main drivers of the linkage algorithm were name, sex, year of birth, village, sub-village, and household member name. At the lowest match score threshold, automated retrospective linkage would have only correctly identified and linked 55% (1440/2612) of the records with a PPV of 55% (1440/2612).

CONCLUSION

Where resources are available, PIRL is a viable approach to link HDSS and other administrative data sources that outperforms purely retrospective approaches.

Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS: evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993 - 2013

BACKGROUND

Literature is limited on the effects of high prevalence HIV on fertility in the absence of treatment, and the effects of the introduction of sustained access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility. We summarize fertility patterns in rural northeast South Africa over 21 years during dynamic social and epidemiological change.

METHODS

We use data for females aged 15-49 from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1993-2013). We use discrete time event history analysis to summarize patterns in the probability of any birth.

RESULTS

Overall fertility declined in 2001-2003, increased in 2004-2011, and then declined in 2012-2013. South Africans showed a similar pattern. Mozambicans showed a different pattern, with strong declines prior to 2003 before stalling during 2004-2007, and then continued fertility decline afterwards. There was an inverse gradient between fertility levels and household socioeconomic status. The gradient did not vary by time or nationality.

CONCLUSIONS

The fertility transition in rural South Africa shows a pattern of decline until the height of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with a resulting stall until further decline in the context of ART rollout. Fertility patterns are not homogenous among groups.

Let's Talk about Sex, Maybe: Interviewers, Respondents, and Sexual Behavior Reporting in Rural South Africa

Researchers are often skeptical of sexual behavior surveys: respondents may lie or forget details of their intimate lives, and interviewers may exercise authority in how they capture responses. We use data from a 2010-2011 cross-sectional sexual behavior survey in rural South Africa to explore who says what to whom about their sexual lives. Results show an effect of fieldworker age across outcomes -- respondents report "safer", more "responsible" sexual behavior to older fieldworkers; and an effect of fieldworker sex -- men report more sexual partners to female fieldworkers. Understanding fieldworker effects on the production of sexual behavior survey data serves methodological and analytical goals.

Comparing verbal autopsy cause of death findings as determined by physician coding and probabilistic modelling: a public health analysis of 54 000 deaths in Africa and Asia

Background

Coverage of civil registration and vital statistics varies globally, with most deaths in Africa and Asia remaining either unregistered or registered without cause of death. One important constraint has been a lack of fit–for–purpose tools for registering deaths and assigning causes in situations where no doctor is involved. Verbal autopsy (interviewing care–givers and witnesses to deaths and interpreting their information into causes of death) is the only available solution. Automated interpretation of verbal autopsy data into cause of death information is essential for rapid, consistent and affordable processing.

Methods

Verbal autopsy archives covering 54 182 deaths from five African and Asian countries were sourced on the basis of their geographical, epidemiological and methodological diversity, with existing physician–coded causes of death attributed. These data were unified into the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard format, and processed using the InterVA–4 model. Cause–specific mortality fractions from InterVA–4 and physician codes were calculated for each of 60 WHO 2012 cause categories, by age group, sex and source. Results from the two approaches were assessed for concordance and ratios of fractions by cause category. As an alternative metric, the Wilcoxon matched–pairs signed ranks test with two one–sided tests for stochastic equivalence was used.

Findings

The overall concordance correlation coefficient between InterVA–4 and physician codes was 0.83 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) and this increased to 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.99) when HIV/AIDS and pulmonary TB deaths were combined into a single category. Over half (53%) of the cause category ratios between InterVA–4 and physician codes by source were not significantly different from unity at the 99% level, increasing to 62% by age group. Wilcoxon tests for stochastic equivalence also demonstrated equivalence.

Conclusions

These findings show strong concordance between InterVA–4 and physician–coded findings over this large and diverse data set. Although these analyses cannot prove that either approach constitutes absolute truth, there was high public health equivalence between the findings. Given the urgent need for adequate cause of death data from settings where deaths currently pass unregistered, and since the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and InterVA–4 tools represent relatively simple, cheap and available methods for determining cause of death on a large scale, they should be used as current tools of choice to fill gaps in cause of death data.

Cardiometabolic disease risk and HIV status in rural South Africa: establishing a baseline

BACKGROUND

To inform health care and training, resource and research priorities, it is essential to establish how non-communicable disease risk factors vary by HIV-status in high HIV burden areas; and whether long-term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) plays a modifying role.

METHODS

As part of a cohort initiation, we conducted a baseline HIV/cardiometabolic risk factor survey in 2010-2011 using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+ in rural South Africa. We modelled cardiometabolic risk factors and their associations by HIV-status and self-reported ART status for ages 18+ using sex-stratified logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Age-standardised HIV prevalence in women was 26% (95% CI 24-28%) and 19% (95% CI 17-21) in men. People with untreated HIV were less likely to have a high waist circumference in both women (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.52-0.86) and men (OR 0.42; 95% CI 0.22-0.82). Untreated women were more likely to have low HDL and LDL, and treated women high triglycerides. Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with age except low HDL. The prevalence of hypertension was high (40% in women; 30% in men).

CONCLUSIONS

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing intersecting epidemics of HIV and hypertension. In this setting, around half the adult population require long-term care for at least one of HIV, hypertension or diabetes. Together with the adverse effects that HIV and its treatment have on lipids, this may have serious implications for the South African health care system. Monitoring of the interaction of HIV, ART use, and cardiometabolic disease is needed at both individual and population levels.

Changing use of traditional healthcare amongst those dying of HIV related disease and TB in rural South Africa from 2003 - 2011: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In 2011 there were 5.5 million HIV infected people in South Africa and 71% of those requiring antiretroviral therapy (ART) received it. The effective integration of traditional medical practitioners and biomedical providers in HIV prevention and care has been demonstrated. However concerns remain that the use of traditional treatments for HIV-related disease may lead to pharmacokinetic interactions between herbal remedies and ART drugs and delay ART initiation. Here we analyse the changing prevalence and determinants of traditional healthcare use amongst those dying of HIV-related disease, pulmonary tuberculosis and other causes in a rural South African community between 2003 and 2011. ART was made available in this area in the latter part of this period.

METHODS

Data was collected during household visits and verbal autopsy interviews. InterVA-4 was used to assign causes of death. Spatial analyses of the distribution of traditional healthcare use were performed. Logistic regression models were developed to test associations of determinants with traditional healthcare use.

RESULTS

There were 5929 deaths in the study population of which 47.7% were caused by HIV-related disease or pulmonary tuberculosis (HIV/AIDS and TB). Traditional healthcare use declined for all deaths, with higher levels throughout for those dying of HIV/AIDS and TB than for those dying of other causes. In 2003-2005, sole use of biomedical treatment was reported for 18.2% of HIV/AIDS and TB deaths and 27.2% of other deaths, by 2008-2011 the figures were 49.9% and 45.3% respectively. In bivariate analyses, higher traditional healthcare use was associated with Mozambican origin, lower education levels, death in 2003-2005 compared to the later time periods, longer illness duration and moderate increases in prior household mortality. In the multivariate model only country of origin, time period and illness duration remained associated.

CONCLUSIONS

There were large decreases in reported traditional healthcare use and increases in the sole use of biomedical treatment amongst those dying of HIV/AIDS and TB. No associations between socio-economic position, age or gender and the likelihood of traditional healthcare use were seen. Further qualitative and quantitative studies are needed to assess whether these figures reflect trends in healthcare use amongst the entire population and the reasons for the temporal changes identified.

Determinants of the risk of dying of HIV/AIDS in a rural South African community over the period of the decentralised roll-out of antiretroviral therapy: a longitudinal study

Background

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) has significantly reduced HIV mortality in South Africa. The benefits have not been experienced by all groups. Here we investigate the factors associated with these inequities.

Design

This study was located in a rural South African setting and used data collected from 2007 to 2010, the period when decentralised ART became available. Approximately one-third of the population were of Mozambican origin. There was a pattern of repeated circular migration between urban areas and this community. Survival analysis models were developed to identify demographic, socioeconomic, and spatial risk factors for HIV mortality.

Results

Among the study population of 105,149 individuals, there were 2,890 deaths. The HIV/TB mortality rate decreased by 27% between 2007–2008 and 2009–2010. For other causes of death, the reduction was 10%. Bivariate analysis found that the HIV/TB mortality risk was lower for: those living within 5 km of the Bhubezi Community Health Centre; women; young adults; in-migrants with a longer period of residence; permanent residents; and members of households owning motorised transport, holding higher socioeconomic positions, and with higher levels of education. Multivariate modelling showed, in addition, that those with South Africa as their country of origin had an increased risk of HIV/TB mortality compared to those with Mozambican origins. For males, those of South African origin, and recent in-migrants, the risk of death associated with HIV/TB was significantly greater than that due to other causes.

Conclusions

In this community, a combination of factors was associated with an increased risk of dying of HIV/TB over the period of the roll-out of ART. There is evidence for the presence of barriers to successful treatment for particular sub-groups in the population, which must be addressed if the recent improvements in population-level mortality are to be maintained.

Record-linkage comparison of verbal autopsy and routine civil registration death certification in rural north-east South Africa: 2006-09

Background: South African civil registration (CR) provides a key data source for local health decision making, and informs the levels and causes of mortality in data-lacking sub-Saharan African countries. We linked mortality data from CR and the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System (Agincourt HDSS) to examine the quality of rural CR data.

Methods: Deterministic and probabilistic techniques were used to link death data from 2006 to 2009. Causes of death were aggregated into the WHO Mortality Tabulation List 1 and a locally relevant short list of 15 causes. The matching rate was compared with informant-reported death registration. Using the VA diagnoses as reference, misclassification patterns, sensitivity, positive predictive values and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated for the short list.

Results: A matching rate of 61% [95% confidence interval (CI): 59.2 to 62.3] was attained, lower than the informant-reported registration rate of 85% (CI: 83.4 to 85.8). For the 2264 matched cases, cause agreement was 15% (kappa 0.1083, CI: 0.0995 to 0.1171) for the WHO list, and 23% (kappa 0.1631, CI: 0.1511 to 0.1751) for the short list. CSMFs were significantly different for all but four (tuberculosis, cerebrovascular disease, other heart disease, and ill-defined natural) of the 15 causes evaluated.

Conclusion: Despite data limitations, it is feasible to link official CR and HDSS verbal autopsy data. Data linkage proved a promising method to provide empirical evidence about the quality and utility of rural CR mortality data. Agreement of individual causes of death was low but, at the population level, careful interpretation of the CR data can assist health prioritization and planning.

Prevalence of HIV among those 15 and older in rural South Africa

A greater knowledge of the burden of HIV in rural areas of Southern Africa is needed, especially among older adults. We conducted a cross-sectional biomarker survey in the rural South African Agincourt Health and Sociodemographic Surveillance site in 2010–2011 and estimated HIV prevalence and risk factors. Using an age–sex stratified random sample of ages 15 +, a total of 5037 (65.7%) of a possible 7662 individuals were located and 4362 (86.6%) consented to HIV testing. HIV prevalence was high (19.4%) and characterized by a large gender gap (10.6% for men and 23.9% for women). Rates peaked at 45.3% among men and 46.1% among women – both at ages 35–39. Compared with a similar study in the rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, peak prevalence occurred at later ages, and HIV prevalence was higher among older adults – with rates above 15% for men and 10% for women through to age 70. High prevalence continues to characterize Southern Africa, and recent evidence confirms that older adults cannot be excluded from policy considerations. The high prevalence among older adults suggests likely HIV infection at older ages. Prevention activities need to expand to older adults to reduce new infections. Treatment will be complicated by increased risk of noncommunicable diseases and by increasing numbers of older people living with HIV.

First experiences in the implementation of biometric technology to link data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems with health facility data

Background

In developing countries, Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) provide a framework for tracking demographic and health dynamics over time in a defined geographical area. Many HDSSs co-exist with facility-based data sources in the form of Health Management Information Systems (HMIS). Integrating both data sources through reliable record linkage could provide both numerator and denominator populations to estimate disease prevalence and incidence rates in the population and enable determination of accurate health service coverage.

Objective

To measure the acceptability and performance of fingerprint biometrics to identify individuals in demographic surveillance populations and those attending health care facilities serving the surveillance populations.

Methodology

Two HDSS sites used fingerprint biometrics for patient and/or surveillance population participant identification. The proportion of individuals for whom a fingerprint could be successfully enrolled were characterised in terms of age and sex.

Results

Adult (18–65 years) fingerprint enrolment rates varied between 94.1% (95% CI 93.6–94.5) for facility-based fingerprint data collection at the Africa Centre site to 96.7% (95% CI 95.9–97.6) for population-based fingerprint data collection at the Agincourt site. Fingerprint enrolment rates in children under 1 year old (Africa Centre site) were only 55.1% (95% CI 52.7–57.4). By age 5, child fingerprint enrolment rates were comparable to those of adults.

Conclusion

This work demonstrates the feasibility of fingerprint-based individual identification for population-based research in developing countries. Record linkage between demographic surveillance population databases and health care facility data based on biometric identification systems would allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of population health, including the ability to study health service utilisation from a population perspective, rather than the more restrictive health service perspective.